You can get evens that Biden’s approval will still be in the 50-54.9 range after 100 days – politica

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, from Philip Sim's twitter account.

A man has been jailed for six months after he admitted breaching the contempt order on the Alex Salmond trial. Lady Dorrian said Clive Thomson, 52, had committed a "deliberate and indeed planned contempt of court" by naming complainers from the trial on social media.

Lady Dorrian said Thomson knew he was breaching the order and had "given thought about how to get away with it" - he "went as far as to seek advice on Twitter".

Another one of those things I didn't think I'd end up having to say - DO NOT TAKE LEGAL ADVICE FROM RANDOMS ON TWITTER

This all underlines that courts do not screw around with this stuff. Defence argued Thomson is the breadwinner for his family and carer for his wife, who is shielding - but Lady Dorrian said that "for such a premeditated contempt" there is "no alternative to a custodial sentence"

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

DavidL said:

FPT
Andy_JS said:
» show previous quotes
I dont understand this Scottish political/legal controversy at all. Its too complicated.
It's not that complicated.

Salmond was stirring up trouble for Sturgeon because a significant part of the SNP didn't believe she was committed to a second referendum.
Allegations of sexual misbehavior on the part of Salmond came to the attention of the Scottish government.
There was no code for dealing with former ministers so the SG made one up, retrospectively.
They also got someone who had spoken to the complainers to assess the complaints.
A judicial review was lodged challenging the competency of that.
Independent counsel told the SG their position was unstateable but the SG soldiered on until counsel threatened to withdraw.
£500k of legal expenses were paid to Salmond's lawyers.
Within days a prosecution was announced and eventually 9 complainers "came forward" with or without a little encouragement.
Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
An inquiry as to why the SG wasted £500k (plus their own costs) in respect of the judicial review has morphed into an inquiry about whether Sturgeon lied when she reported the complaints to Parliament.
She told Parliament that the first she was aware of the charges was at a meeting in her house on 2nd April.
She now accepts that's not true and she knew the reason for that meeting following a discussion on 29th March.
She claims to have "forgotten" about a meeting where she was told that her mentor of 30 years was facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct.
The point is important because she should not have been meeting Salmond at all except in a First Minister capacity with civil servants present. She claims that she thought that this was a "party meeting." This is not consistent with prior knowledge.
Salmond has lodged detailed statements with the committee investigating this matter with paper vouching in part.
Crown Office have complained that this is a breach of the contempt of court order arising from the trial to protect the identity of the 9. Its really not obvious why.
If she is found to have lied the Ministerial code requires her to resign.

And not a banana in sight.

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FPT
Andy_JS said:
» show previous quotes
I dont understand this Scottish political/legal controversy at all. Its too complicated.
It's not that complicated.

Salmond was stirring up trouble for Sturgeon because a significant part of the SNP didn't believe she was committed to a second referendum.
Allegations of sexual misbehavior on the part of Salmond came to the attention of the Scottish government.
There was no code for dealing with former ministers so the SG made one up, retrospectively.
They also got someone who had spoken to the complainers to assess the complaints.
A judicial review was lodged challenging the competency of that.
Independent counsel told the SG their position was unstateable but the SG soldiered on until counsel threatened to withdraw.
£500k of legal expenses were paid to Salmond's lawyers.
Within days a prosecution was announced and eventually 9 complainers "came forward" with or without a little encouragement.
Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
An inquiry as to why the SG wasted £500k (plus their own costs) in respect of the judicial review has morphed into an inquiry about whether Sturgeon lied when she reported the complaints to Parliament.
She told Parliament that the first she was aware of the charges was at a meeting in her house on 2nd April.
She now accepts that's not true and she knew the reason for that meeting following a discussion on 29th March.
She claims to have "forgotten" about a meeting where she was told that her mentor of 30 years was facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct.
The point is important because she should not have been meeting Salmond at all except in a First Minister capacity with civil servants present. She claims that she thought that this was a "party meeting." This is not consistent with prior knowledge.
Salmond has lodged detailed statements with the committee investigating this matter with paper vouching in part.
Crown Office have complained that this is a breach of the contempt of court order arising from the trial to protect the identity of the 9. Its really not obvious why.
If she is found to have lied the Ministerial code requires her to resign.

And not a banana in sight.

The opening to Soap was less convoluted. Even when it had alien abduction.

DavidL said:

FPT
Andy_JS said:
» show previous quotes
I dont understand this Scottish political/legal controversy at all. Its too complicated.
It's not that complicated.

Salmond was stirring up trouble for Sturgeon because a significant part of the SNP didn't believe she was committed to a second referendum.
Allegations of sexual misbehavior on the part of Salmond came to the attention of the Scottish government.
There was no code for dealing with former ministers so the SG made one up, retrospectively.
They also got someone who had spoken to the complainers to assess the complaints.
A judicial review was lodged challenging the competency of that.
Independent counsel told the SG their position was unstateable but the SG soldiered on until counsel threatened to withdraw.
£500k of legal expenses were paid to Salmond's lawyers.
Within days a prosecution was announced and eventually 9 complainers "came forward" with or without a little encouragement.
Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
An inquiry as to why the SG wasted £500k (plus their own costs) in respect of the judicial review has morphed into an inquiry about whether Sturgeon lied when she reported the complaints to Parliament.
She told Parliament that the first she was aware of the charges was at a meeting in her house on 2nd April.
She now accepts that's not true and she knew the reason for that meeting following a discussion on 29th March.
She claims to have "forgotten" about a meeting where she was told that her mentor of 30 years was facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct.
The point is important because she should not have been meeting Salmond at all except in a First Minister capacity with civil servants present. She claims that she thought that this was a "party meeting." This is not consistent with prior knowledge.
Salmond has lodged detailed statements with the committee investigating this matter with paper vouching in part.
Crown Office have complained that this is a breach of the contempt of court order arising from the trial to protect the identity of the 9. Its really not obvious why.
If she is found to have lied the Ministerial code requires her to resign.

And not a banana in sight.

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Some do. I don't.

NerysHughes said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

Oh dear, Sir Keir.

Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio......

He is just too dull and boring

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1364915935107305472?s=20

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Have we seen this one?

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1364914297223188483?s=20

SNP 4 (nc)

Worth noting the changes on that poll over the actuals when the last sets of locals were contested. If that poll is anything like the actual result in May, it's going to be an interesting night. And following days.

2016:

Labour -2
Conservative +10
LibDems -4

2017:

Labour -6
Cons +2
LibDems -7

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

Looks a lot more stable than England's batting line up doesn't it?

Do the Scots still always support whoever England's opponent is?

Some do. I don't.

Who do you cheer for when Scotland play England in cricket?

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, from Philip Sim's twitter account.

A man has been jailed for six months after he admitted breaching the contempt order on the Alex Salmond trial. Lady Dorrian said Clive Thomson, 52, had committed a "deliberate and indeed planned contempt of court" by naming complainers from the trial on social media.

Lady Dorrian said Thomson knew he was breaching the order and had "given thought about how to get away with it" - he "went as far as to seek advice on Twitter".

Another one of those things I didn't think I'd end up having to say - DO NOT TAKE LEGAL ADVICE FROM RANDOMS ON TWITTER

This all underlines that courts do not screw around with this stuff. Defence argued Thomson is the breadwinner for his family and carer for his wife, who is shielding - but Lady Dorrian said that "for such a premeditated contempt" there is "no alternative to a custodial sentence"

But he actually named them which is a clear contempt of court. What happens in the Craig Murray trial who reported what others were reporting from the court by twitter will be much more interesting and test the limits of the jigsaw identification rule. Its very unusual for the decision in a criminal case to take as long to be determined as that one has been already.

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Cook and Strauss: England have a chance. 🤔

India were bowled out for 36 two months ago.

They have form.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

Burgessian said:

MarqueeMark said:

FPT MattW, there has been a 7.5% swing in net favorables between Boris and Nicola since the last poll. OK, his previous ratings were worse than scrofula, but with Ross polling much better too, it might mean the Tories are best placed to benefit from further internal SNP trauma between now and May.

Especially with Starmer going backwards too.

Douglas Ross's approval up to 28% will be giving SCon some reason for hope. And that's before he gets the benefit of more coverage from the election campaign. Tories got 31 MSPs out of a list vote of just shy of 23% last time, so not inconceivable that they could do better in May,

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

PT, given that your wife has had dozens of tests - all negative - and now one positive (presumable via LFT) why isn`t she insisting on continued tests to see if the positive is a rogue result (given that she has no symptoms). That`s what I`d do for sure.

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

FPT: @Philip_Thompson "Positive for the plague in my household. Wife's tested positive despite taking all the precautions and having the Pfizer first jab in December. She's asymptomatic, just been picked up as she does 3 tests a week.

I guess I'll get the plague now and may not be as lucky to be asymptomatic. Kind of regretting piling the pounds back on over winter that I lost last spring now."


I`m just catching up on last thread. Sorry to hear this PT. I am hoping that your wife continues to take the regular tests (LTF?) and whether subsequent ones all come back positive.

Thanks for the best wishes (and from everyone else).

She won't be taking any more tests now for a while, at home for a fortnight now and when she returns they don't take tests until 90 days after the positive.

PT, given that your wife has had dozens of tests - all negative - and now one positive (presumable via LFT) why isn`t she insisting on continued tests to see if the positive is a rogue result (given that she has no symptoms). That`s what I`d do for sure.

It was PCR positive not LFT and its company policy. Get a positive and you're not allowed back for a fortnight. Not worth the risk of keeping on someone who's tested positive I suppose?

Not sure if LFT instead of PCR would have made a difference.

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

Endillion said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

I remain optimistic that this sentiment will fade over the next few years, as Republican primary voters' desire to stop the Democrats overtakes the bizarre adherence to ideological purity with respect to Trumpism.

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

The whole thread suggests not - the EU wants a “Swiss” model (we follow their rules) the U.K. wants a NZ “equivalence” model. We’ll see whether they’re genuinely concerned about NI or simply weaponised it for negotiations

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364921218932109319?s=20

That's a pretty big concession is it not? At least if it counts for whole UK to EU.

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/kevincarrico/status/1364871034910826496

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

Nigelb said:

Endillion said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

FPT

MrEd said:

At the moment, Ron DeSantis - he's attracting a lot of plaudits from the right-wing commentators both for his stance on Covid and his willingness to take on what is perceived to be a biased media. His proposed legislation on Big Tech is also going down well with the GOP MAGA side.

I think generally it's going to be hard for anyone in Congress on the GOP side to make too much of an impact given the Democrats control both Houses for now and McConnell still controls the Senate faction but is seen as soiled goods by much of the party both for Trump going after him and because many blame him for the Georgia loss due to his opposition to the $2000 stimulus cheques. That has given an opportunity for the Governors to step into the void and take more of a leadership role. I would have said before that DeSantis faced a tough battle with Greg Abbott of Texas who also gets a lot of plaudits but the electricity blackouts have knocked him.

One other thing that is key but is rarely talked about. Trump is now physically down in Florida and is likely to remain so. I think physical proximity gives DeSantis an advantage, especially if there is any way he can hinder attempts to prosecute Trump.

Interesting comment from @MrEd , which I'm in agreement with.
I noted a week or so back that his Betfair odds had shortened quite a bit. I think he's a lot better placed than the current polling might suggest.

(I'm not a fan, but that's irrelevant.)

Unless there's a big change of sentiment over there - which is possible - I'd say that any Republican you are even remotely a fan of has no chance whatsoever of the nomination.

True.
I'd go further and say that no Republican who doesn't refuse to acknowledge that Biden won the election has any chance. The survival of US democracy remains very much in the balance.

I remain optimistic that this sentiment will fade over the next few years, as Republican primary voters' desire to stop the Democrats overtakes the bizarre adherence to ideological purity with respect to Trumpism.

I think it will likely take the loss of another Presidential election.
I hope I'm wrong about that - and sincerely hope that if I'm not, then they do lose, humiliatingly.

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1364908280267563011?s=20

She really really has a brass neck, looks likeshe is going to take the whole lot down before she will fess up.

Ruth's point today is a telling one. Up to now the focus has all been on the meeting with Mr Aberdein on 29th March where what was to be discussed at the meeting on 2nd April was allegedly discussed but Ruth is pointing out that Sturgeon knew about the allegations months prior to this and had discussed them with her officials. That really blows the water out of her "shock" at what was discussed on 2nd April and indeed her contention that she thought that this was some sort of SNP meeting which did not have to involve civil servants.

Given what she knew and given her position she really should not have met Salmond anywhere, let alone in her own home.