From Absence to Shortage to Glut – Covid 19 Vaccines in Just Nine Months – politicalbetting.com

On Topic.

And, for those who can't wait their turn for their vaccinations, here's how to make your own:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine?fbclid=IwAR2VVrwSLxNjnzv0XKYEBJl_I1S6yJCz1TTLt7nF8NCm4AWJJAiHmmaEI5o

Nigel_Foremain said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

And.....like clockwork the moaning has started....

Meanwhile, British businessman Wayne Kelly was warned he faces a £500 fine after landing at Heathrow today from a trip to Dubai without booking a quarantine hotel.

He said he had 'no idea' about the new ten-day isolation rules for red list countries before he was handed a note by Border Force warning him to expect a fine for breaching Covid laws.

Mr Kelly, from Birmingham, said: 'I didn't know what this is all about and I still don't understand it. I came in from Dubai. I've now got a pay £1,750 to stay in a hotel.

'And this letter they've given me says I could be fined another £500. I'm trying to work and make a living. It's a terrible way to treat people.'

Mr Kelly, who works in property, claimed he hadn't been reading the papers or watching TV and knew nothing of the new quarantine rules.

'The first I realised I was going to be in this trouble was when I got off the plane,' he said. 'Now I've got this nightmare of being put into a hotel when I've actually got a home in Birmingham with my family.

'I was in Dubai last month when I got back I quarantined at home with no problem. I should be allowed to do that again.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9261439/Welcome-Hotel-Quarantine-Heathrow-arrivals-land.html

If you are a regular international flier during these times, I just don't believe you never ever look at what possible change of rules are occurring, or that nobody in your family or friendship group would have possibly mentioned it.

I still can't get my head around why anyone is flying. How is it OK to go on a business trip to Dubai, when you could do any meeting via Zoom or Teams? How is OK to go Dubai but not go 10 miles down the road? There are people that have forgone going to relatives funerals during this crisis, but some people still think it is OK to fly around the world on some flimsy pretext. I would really like to know what "justification" anyone has for risking bringing in a new variant of Covid into the country at the moment. If it is acceptable to close down a hospitality business because of Covid it is surely OK to stop some smart arse "property" businessman/speculator from going to Dubai

Yes. The "flew to Chile to spend some time with family" guy moaning stands out.
Have these people no self-awareness?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fairliered said:

I hope Government have block booked Britannia Hotels specifically for the chancers that are caught evading the quarantine rules.

Still too good for them....One of those old style Travelodges at busy motorway service stations...and all food has to come from the Little Chef next to it.

You have spelled 'Little Thief' incorrectly.

Robbing bastards once charged me £18.95 for a fish and chips that turned out to be 4 fish fingers and about 8 chips.

turbotubbs said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

England Only Vaccinations

Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 187,246 837 188,083
East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
London 30,631 45 30,676
Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
North West 18,663 23 18,686
South East 33,088 233 33,321
South West 18,348 54 18,402

Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

Might just be a project-shift effect.

We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

All are possible and probably some are right.

BUT - we don't know for sure.

Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.

This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

--AS

I can't see why electric cars can't synthesize the feel of petrol with a selective "mode" on the open road.

The noise an indicator makes (click-clonk, click-clonk) is totally artificial - it's because people missed the original bimetallic strip that operated a blinkered sidelamp.

Floater said:

Wait what?


https://order-order.com/2021/02/15/pound-back-to-february-2016-levels-against-dollar/

You saying it's like Brexit never happened?

Fairliered said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Great article.

The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so.

He has.

The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.

The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.

Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.

The UK has done well with vaccine ordering.
From the Independent 3 Sep 2020
"The UK government has already secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, while the EU, Germany and the US have placed similar advance orders."

felix said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

And.....like clockwork the moaning has started....

Meanwhile, British businessman Wayne Kelly was warned he faces a £500 fine after landing at Heathrow today from a trip to Dubai without booking a quarantine hotel.

He said he had 'no idea' about the new ten-day isolation rules for red list countries before he was handed a note by Border Force warning him to expect a fine for breaching Covid laws.

Mr Kelly, from Birmingham, said: 'I didn't know what this is all about and I still don't understand it. I came in from Dubai. I've now got a pay £1,750 to stay in a hotel.

'And this letter they've given me says I could be fined another £500. I'm trying to work and make a living. It's a terrible way to treat people.'

Mr Kelly, who works in property, claimed he hadn't been reading the papers or watching TV and knew nothing of the new quarantine rules.

'The first I realised I was going to be in this trouble was when I got off the plane,' he said. 'Now I've got this nightmare of being put into a hotel when I've actually got a home in Birmingham with my family.

'I was in Dubai last month when I got back I quarantined at home with no problem. I should be allowed to do that again.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9261439/Welcome-Hotel-Quarantine-Heathrow-arrivals-land.html

If you are a regular international flier during these times, I just don't believe you never ever look at what possible change of rules are occurring, or that nobody in your family or friendship group would have possibly mentioned it.

The twat deserves double the time for the whingeing!

Plus a 100% "just how dumb do you think we are?" surcharge.

turbotubbs said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

England Only Vaccinations

Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 187,246 837 188,083
East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
London 30,631 45 30,676
Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
North West 18,663 23 18,686
South East 33,088 233 33,321
South West 18,348 54 18,402

Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

Might just be a project-shift effect.

We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

All are possible and probably some are right.

BUT - we don't know for sure.

Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.

This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

--AS

I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.

The vaccine supply and delivery detail is commercially sensitive for the manufacturers, who don’t want countries arguing with them over the order in which deliveries are made.

Nigel_Foremain said:

felix said:

Fairliered said:

felix said:

Fairliered said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Great article.

The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so.

He has.

The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.

The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.

Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.

Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....

Who would you choose to play Boris?

Benedict Cumberbatch would be deliciously ironic!

I think the best person to play Boris "er er er" Johnson would be Boris Johnson. He has been playing the part all his life, and no one else could come across in quite such a twattish way however good they were at acting.

Reminds me of that Donald Trump interview in the 80s. Asked who he'd choose to play the lead in a movie of his life he said "Me" as if any other answer was unthinkable.

turbotubbs said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

England Only Vaccinations

Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 187,246 837 188,083
East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
London 30,631 45 30,676
Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
North West 18,663 23 18,686
South East 33,088 233 33,321
South West 18,348 54 18,402

Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

Might just be a project-shift effect.

We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

All are possible and probably some are right.

BUT - we don't know for sure.

Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.

This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

--AS

I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.

Yes, Always Singing is wrong about this – the new target is clearly April 30 and it's been laid down as such by the government. No vacillation, no excuses. The final counting day therefore will be 1 May.

There are 75 counting days remaining for the new target.

Required run rate is 226,667 first doses/day.

Remember that second doses will be deployed in tandem.

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

England Only Vaccinations

Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 187,246 837 188,083
East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
London 30,631 45 30,676
Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
North West 18,663 23 18,686
South East 33,088 233 33,321
South West 18,348 54 18,402

Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

Might just be a project-shift effect.

We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

All are possible and probably some are right.

BUT - we don't know for sure.

Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.

This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

--AS

I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.

I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

--AS

WRONG

The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.

9,765 cases. First day under 10K in a long time!

Over 4K fewer than the same day last week.

Philip_Thompson said:

AnneJGP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Great article.

The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so.

He has.

The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.

Very well said.

Though LOL I find it very amusing some bitter and twisted individual has marked your post and mine you replied to as Off Topic. I wonder if that sad, twisted individual even read the thread header since it's quite literally on topic.

Imagine being such a partisan hack that you are irritated that a vaccine that will save the world has been developed with our support.

Just joined and way behind the thread but do please make some allowance for the possibility that your sad, twisted individual may simply have fat finger syndrome. On my smartphone it's only too easy to hit one of those active spots without knowing you've done it.

Good afternoon, everyone.

If its just the one sure its entirely possible to do it by accident, though if you see it you can remove it.

When someone flags as off topic all the posts of a certain PoV in a conversation its just petulant and silly. Unlikely to be a series of coincidental accidents when a train of thought in multiple messages are simultaneously flagged.

Indeed. Up there with Rename being next to Delete in the popup menus on Windows.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

Selebian said:

Floater said:

https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1361307340260188162

One reply (on vaccine passports) is:

Same debate taking place in UK but the biggest issue is intergenerational fairness.

People <35 have been disproportionately affected & it's cost to them has been massive & on behalf of 60+s, already the wealthiest & now most immunised.</i>

It risks ugliness if 60+ win all round.

There's something in that, but I think it's at least arguable that also bearing the brunt of deaths means that 60+ year olds have not "won all round".

Serious debate to be had between differential freedom (bad, from a fairness point of view, in some ways) and letting the fully vaccinated get out and spend their money so that the youngsters have a greater chance of keeping jobs and having less public debt to deal with. Hopefully, by the time most 60+ are fully vaccinated there will already be a lot more freedom for everyone than there is now.

My son runs a bar and is under financial pressure - if this allows the bar to open for at least some clientele sooner rather than later so much the better for him and for our economy

Yes, exactly. I do understand why for the moment the government is emphasising that it wants people to get jabbed without pressure being put on them, but the crucial point about vaccine 'passports' is that they will allow pubs, restaurants, concert halls, theatres, gyms to re-open earlier, and without the very stringent social-distancing rules which are economically and in some cases physically unviable. If we want to get things back to something like normal ASAP, we shouldn't hold back those who are already vaccinated just because some idiots aren't. Quite apart from the absurdity of having people 'all jabbed up with nowhere to go', it's an economic imperative.

Absolutely. I am a live music fan and would be more than happy to prove I have been vaccinated in order to attend a concert. Those that chose not to be vaccinated should absolutely have that right, but by doing so they can choose to stay at home and not attend public gatherings

The issue is that we will have a period when it's not about choice, because the young cannot be vaccinated until later.

My university-aged daughter will understandably feel a bit sore about not being allowed to do stuff for several more months, mainly for the benefit of her parents and grandparents generation, when they are then off enjoying themselves after being vaccinated.

It's unjust to punish people for making a choice that they can't make.

Trump is US third best President in American history according to You Gov America

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1361340833690226689?s=19

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

"We'll just turn our software into cash'.......

https://twitter.com/spencer68/status/1361278599618301953?s=20

I was hoping for a nice and relaxing 2021 on the professional front. #BaileyMustGo

FWIW back in the FSA days I had a friend who ran his own remortgage firm which he thought met the 2.5% capital adequacy requirements and so did the FSA, until it went bust and then they realised the overdrawn directors' loan accounts were never realisable.

Um the point is that we aren't following the ECB and letting banks use software assets as actual resalable assets.

However Bailey really wasn't a suitable person to lead the BoE and his FSA days confirm as much.

I just expect him to start picking at other things to show he's doing something.

But spare a thought for those who have spent the last few years setting up were capitalised EU subsidiaries and now have to go through a process of alignment.

Easy, book the software upgrade in Amsterdam and hard cash in London.

If only it was that easy.

A good lawyer like yourself should easily find a way of doing such a thing.

The buggeration factor is really high.

A legal term of art no doubt.

Does anyone have a decent handle on this?

https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1361226744582266881

AlwaysSinging said:

Anabobazina said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

England Only Vaccinations

Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 187,246 837 188,083
East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
London 30,631 45 30,676
Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
North West 18,663 23 18,686
South East 33,088 233 33,321
South West 18,348 54 18,402

Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

Might just be a project-shift effect.

We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

All are possible and probably some are right.

BUT - we don't know for sure.

Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.

This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

--AS

I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.

I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

--AS

WRONG

The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.

I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

--AS

It is 17 million new first doses by 30 April, 2359hrs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56016357

Anabobazina said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Anabobazina said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

England Only Vaccinations

Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 187,246 837 188,083
East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
London 30,631 45 30,676
Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
North West 18,663 23 18,686
South East 33,088 233 33,321
South West 18,348 54 18,402

Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

Might just be a project-shift effect.

We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

All are possible and probably some are right.

BUT - we don't know for sure.

Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.

This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

--AS

I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.

I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

--AS

WRONG

The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.

I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

--AS

It is 17 million new first doses by 30 April, 2359hrs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56016357

Well, let's see what he says today. That story doesn't contain any commitment, merely a "ministers hope". And no 17 million number.

--AS

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Fairliered said:

felix said:

Fairliered said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Mysticrose said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Great article.

The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so.

He has.

The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.

The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.

Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.

Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....

Who would you choose to play Boris?

Whoever you want, you're getting Ken Branagh:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/kenneth-branagh-to-play-boris-johnson-in-tv-drama-about-covid-crisis

Great actor, odd choice.

Good fun getting in Boris condition for the role though.

kinabalu said:

LostPassword said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

Selebian said:

Floater said:

https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1361307340260188162

One reply (on vaccine passports) is:

Same debate taking place in UK but the biggest issue is intergenerational fairness.

People <35 have been disproportionately affected & it's cost to them has been massive & on behalf of 60+s, already the wealthiest & now most immunised.</i>

It risks ugliness if 60+ win all round.

There's something in that, but I think it's at least arguable that also bearing the brunt of deaths means that 60+ year olds have not "won all round".

Serious debate to be had between differential freedom (bad, from a fairness point of view, in some ways) and letting the fully vaccinated get out and spend their money so that the youngsters have a greater chance of keeping jobs and having less public debt to deal with. Hopefully, by the time most 60+ are fully vaccinated there will already be a lot more freedom for everyone than there is now.

My son runs a bar and is under financial pressure - if this allows the bar to open for at least some clientele sooner rather than later so much the better for him and for our economy

Yes, exactly. I do understand why for the moment the government is emphasising that it wants people to get jabbed without pressure being put on them, but the crucial point about vaccine 'passports' is that they will allow pubs, restaurants, concert halls, theatres, gyms to re-open earlier, and without the very stringent social-distancing rules which are economically and in some cases physically unviable. If we want to get things back to something like normal ASAP, we shouldn't hold back those who are already vaccinated just because some idiots aren't. Quite apart from the absurdity of having people 'all jabbed up with nowhere to go', it's an economic imperative.

Absolutely. I am a live music fan and would be more than happy to prove I have been vaccinated in order to attend a concert. Those that chose not to be vaccinated should absolutely have that right, but by doing so they can choose to stay at home and not attend public gatherings

The issue is that we will have a period when it's not about choice, because the young cannot be vaccinated until later.

My university-aged daughter will understandably feel a bit sore about not being allowed to do stuff for several more months, mainly for the benefit of her parents and grandparents generation, when they are then off enjoying themselves after being vaccinated.

It's unjust to punish people for making a choice that they can't make.

My view is that vaccine passports for domestic purposes is a non-starter. I can see it for international travel (maybe) but little else.

Completely agree. For international travel if destination country insists on it, i.e. not a blanket requirement wherever you are going. Same as with yellow fever.

Anabobazina said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Anabobazina said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Anabobazina said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

AlwaysSinging said:

turbotubbs said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

England Only Vaccinations

Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 187,246 837 188,083
East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
London 30,631 45 30,676
Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
North West 18,663 23 18,686
South East 33,088 233 33,321
South West 18,348 54 18,402

Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

Might just be a project-shift effect.

We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

All are possible and probably some are right.

BUT - we don't know for sure.

Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.

This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

--AS

I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.

I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

--AS

WRONG

The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.

I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

--AS

It is 17 million new first doses by 30 April, 2359hrs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56016357

Well, let's see what he says today. That story doesn't contain any commitment, merely a "ministers hope". And no 17 million number.

--AS

The numbers are in the table at the bottom.

I expect 'by 30 April' to appear in the Plan next week.

YBarddCwsc said:

The picture of the hotel room in the Daily Merkle ready for these air travellers looks grim.

Amenities include "Window Overlooking Airport" and "Comfortable Armchair to Watch Planes".

One or two them seem to have difficulty understanding what a quarantine is:

[Roger Concalves] added "The people in the hotel will give food to me for lunch and dinner, everything, but I can't go out. That's crazy.'

I can't decide.

Do the DM journalists make this stuff up? Or are people travelling in a global pandemic really that thick?

Just think how stupid the average person appears, then remember that half of them are more stupid than that.

I think we've overdone it on the JCVI groups slightly, groups 7 -> 5 (60 - 70 + vulnerable) being treated as a single cohort to be done "next" would probably skip a bit of turnaround time. Hopefully if there's bookings going unfilled they will be extended cohorts downward.