Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

From Absence to Shortage to Glut – Covid 19 Vaccines in Just Nine Months – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited February 15 in General
imageFrom Absence to Shortage to Glut – Covid 19 Vaccines in Just Nine Months – politicalbetting.com

Just fourteen weeks ago, at the beginning of November, there was scepticism from many about whether a Covid vaccine would be possible, even given the low bar (50% efficacy against moderate symptoms) set by the World Health Organisation and the FDA. And even if one of the vaccine candidates did work, could it be produced in volume?

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,497
    Test
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    Great piece Robert, the vaccine challenge has indeed shown humanity at its very best.
    There’s now a big light at the end of the tunnel, and we get closer to the end every day.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Brilliant article
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I guess the only thing I'd add, but this might be because of my nationality, is that in real world studies the Astra-Zeneca jab is proving just as efficacious as Pfizer's with c 90% after the 2nd jab. This is a huge study:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-giving-67-protection-after-three-weeks-large-scale-research-shows-12217943

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,109
    For a vaccine: more is better.
    For climate change: less is better.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    Just about to go into a meeting with a couple of Indian customers. I guess they’re going to be happier than they were last week!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    Interview with the Oxford scientists, on what their life has been like for the past year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/14/life-savers-story-oxford-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-scientists
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772

    I guess the only thing I'd add, but this might be because of my nationality, is that in real world studies the Astra-Zeneca jab is proving just as efficacious as Pfizer's with c 90% after the 2nd jab. This is a huge study:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-giving-67-protection-after-three-weeks-large-scale-research-shows-12217943

    The Oxford vaccine is very good. Under normal circumstances, we'd call it world beating (or pandemic ending). But the requirement to have a really long day between first and second doses is a pain (and means that it'll take longer than we'd like to get the virus under control), and it simply isn't as easy to scale manufacturing as the new mRNA vaccines.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 21,835
    Good header. By the summer the world will be awash with vaccines.

    Supply is obviously the main constraint at present, but soon it will be the infrastructure around actually getting it into arms. That will be an issue for quite a few countries, and not just in the developing world.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the only thing I'd add, but this might be because of my nationality, is that in real world studies the Astra-Zeneca jab is proving just as efficacious as Pfizer's with c 90% after the 2nd jab. This is a huge study:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-giving-67-protection-after-three-weeks-large-scale-research-shows-12217943

    The Oxford vaccine is very good. Under normal circumstances, we'd call it world beating (or pandemic ending). But the requirement to have a really long day between first and second doses is a pain (and means that it'll take longer than we'd like to get the virus under control), and it simply isn't as easy to scale manufacturing as the new mRNA vaccines.

    You're right Robert, although offset against that is the ease of storage and, therefore, effective supply especially to less developed countries.

    I was hearing yesterday that they may be able to freeze dry the two mRNA ones?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    And given the choice I'd prefer to have the Pfizer one. But I accept that's a very 1st world, UK-centric and privileged comment so mea culpa.
  • Test

    Hardly with this pitch.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited February 15

    Test

    Hardly with this pitch.
    Someone just posted on the BBC website that Ashwin and Kohli are demonstrating that we should stop whingeing about the playing surface. He's got a lot of support for the comment.

    He's right. Stop moaning about it and play. Nothing wrong with a surface that challenges batsmen. It's just that we're used to seam pitches not spin ones. In this test India have outperformed England in batting and bowling.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,863
    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.
  • Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:
  • The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,475
    I am having my jab on 27th. Multiple choice .. if I could choose, should I have a)Astra, b)Pfizer or c) it makes no difference.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    Sandpit said:

    And given the choice I'd prefer to have the Pfizer one. But I accept that's a very 1st world, UK-centric and privileged comment so mea culpa.

    The best vaccine you can get, is the one that’s available!
    When this is all over, I'd be prepared to bet the best regime is a mixed one: say AZ + Pfizer
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,475

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    Brown is an irrelevance. He should never have been PM, only weakness in Labour allowed it to happen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    I'd modify that slightly:

    The government removes almost all restrictions in March.

    Cases spike.

    Then the government is too scared to remove them until summer is almost done.

    No, I don't think they're that stupid. But that has to be the biggest risk.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    CNN: US identifies its own homegrown variant strains:

    Researchers said Sunday they have identified a batch of similar troubling mutations in coronavirus samples circulating in the United States. They've not only drawn attention to them; they've come up with a better shorthand for referring to them. They've named them after birds.

    The mutations all affect the same stretch of the spike protein -- the knob-like extension on the outside of the virus that it uses to dock onto the cells it infects, the researchers wrote in a pre-print report. It's not peer reviewed yet, but researchers are rushing such findings online to share them quickly with other experts.

    The genetic stretch that is mutated, or changed, is called 677. The various changes are so similar that the researchers think evolution favors these particular variants. And it's in a troubling place, said Vaughn Cooper, director of the Center for Evolutionary Biology and Medicine at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, who worked on the study. “ This stretch of Spike is important because of its proximity to a region key for virulence," Cooper told CNN via email.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    And given the choice I'd prefer to have the Pfizer one. But I accept that's a very 1st world, UK-centric and privileged comment so mea culpa.

    The best vaccine you can get, is the one that’s available!
    When this is all over, I'd be prepared to bet the best regime is a mixed one: say AZ + Pfizer
    Quite possibly true - and there is at least one trial underway to check that.

    Fine article, Robert (minor quibble... I’m not not sure the Manhattan Project comparison holds up. The science, production technology and much of the infrastructure behind even the mRNA vaccines was well characterised and in place before the pandemic began: that was certainly not true in any respect for the bomb and WWII.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    edited February 15

    Test

    Hardly with this pitch.
    Someone just posted on the BBC website that Ashwin and Kohli are demonstrating that we should stop whingeing about the playing surface. He's got a lot of support for the comment.

    He's right. Stop moaning about it and play. Nothing wrong with a surface that challenges batsmen. It's just that we're used to seam pitches not spin ones. In this test India have outperformed England in batting and bowling.
    Yep, these two have put on 70, and Kholi has his half centrury to make up for his duck in the first innings. The pitch is just about playable if you’re careful, as is being demonstrated. England are simply the second best side this week.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456
    edited February 15
    Fascinating and previously untold story of the bipartisan ‘stop the steal’ campaign, which started much earlier and was considerably more organised than I’d previously understood.

    The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election
    https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

    The democracy deep state ?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited February 15

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,454
    Good morning.
    I don't want to be a Dismal Jimmy but having the vaccine and being able to administer it rapidly to the whole population are two different, and complementary, things. We've got to go through the whole of the population that were vaccinated in the last couple of months again by early April, as well as starting on the next stage.
    It's going to tie up a lot of people, and facilities.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 984
    rcs1000 said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    I'd modify that slightly:

    The government removes almost all restrictions in March.

    Cases spike.

    Then the government is too scared to remove them until summer is almost done.

    No, I don't think they're that stupid. But that has to be the biggest risk.
    Who cares about cases. We put our lives on hold to “protect the NHS” and “save lives”.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited February 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    And given the choice I'd prefer to have the Pfizer one. But I accept that's a very 1st world, UK-centric and privileged comment so mea culpa.

    The best vaccine you can get, is the one that’s available!
    When this is all over, I'd be prepared to bet the best regime is a mixed one: say AZ + Pfizer
    Which is indeed currently undergoing new trials in ... the UK.

    We are globally leading the way. Stunning. And I'm really not a nationalist.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 9,331

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    And given the choice I'd prefer to have the Pfizer one. But I accept that's a very 1st world, UK-centric and privileged comment so mea culpa.

    The best vaccine you can get, is the one that’s available!
    When this is all over, I'd be prepared to bet the best regime is a mixed one: say AZ + Pfizer
    Which is indeed currently undergoing new trials in ... the UK.

    We are globally leading the way. Stunning. And I'm really not a nationalist.
    We can lead the international effort in helping out other countries that are short of vaccines.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    And given the choice I'd prefer to have the Pfizer one. But I accept that's a very 1st world, UK-centric and privileged comment so mea culpa.

    The best vaccine you can get, is the one that’s available!
    When this is all over, I'd be prepared to bet the best regime is a mixed one: say AZ + Pfizer
    Which is indeed currently undergoing new trials in ... the UK.

    We are globally leading the way. Stunning. And I'm really not a nationalist.
    We can lead the international effort in helping out other countries that are short of vaccines.
    We are. We've donated £0.5 billion to this programme which has begun the rollout.

    https://who-africa.africa-newsroom.com/press/coronavirus-africa-covax-expects-to-start-sending-millions-of-covid19-vaccines-to-africa-in-february

    As the UK has one of the highest death rates per million in the world there's nothing too wrong about vaccinating its citizens first :neutral:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    Scott_xP said:
    Trying to put dates on things, the silliest idea yet. Viruses don’t have calendars.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 50,313
    edited February 15
    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    rcs1000 said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    I'd modify that slightly:

    The government removes almost all restrictions in March.

    Cases spike.

    Then the government is too scared to remove them until summer is almost done.

    No, I don't think they're that stupid. But that has to be the biggest risk.
    We just did that in December
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,077
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    And given the choice I'd prefer to have the Pfizer one. But I accept that's a very 1st world, UK-centric and privileged comment so mea culpa.

    The best vaccine you can get, is the one that’s available!
    When this is all over, I'd be prepared to bet the best regime is a mixed one: say AZ + Pfizer
    I was going to say that.
    If I had a free choice, I’d have AZ first dose and Pfizer second dose.
    Unfortunately, I’m just too young to volunteer for the study.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    I'd modify that slightly:

    The government removes almost all restrictions in March.

    Cases spike.

    Then the government is too scared to remove them until summer is almost done.

    No, I don't think they're that stupid. But that has to be the biggest risk.
    We just did that in December
    Something happened since then. Clue, it started on 8th December.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,677
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Trying to put dates on things, the silliest idea yet. Viruses don’t have calendars.
    They don't but we do and many have businesses to run. The key date is vaccine +21 days. What proportion of our society needs to have got to that point for the risk to be minimal?
  • The inverse of targeting Easter as a date for removing restrictions by is saying that all decisions between now and then should be done with that goal in mind. Eg some restrictions could be lifted now since cases are falling but if they were then the slowdown would be slower and a bigger relaxation later might not be viable.

    A hard and fast squishing of prevalence now with a fuller reopening of the economy by Easter if viable is best for healthcare and best for the economy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    edited February 15

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 50,313
    edited February 15

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    Very well said.

    Though LOL I find it very amusing some bitter and twisted individual has marked your post and mine you replied to as Off Topic. I wonder if that sad, twisted individual even read the thread header since it's quite literally on topic.

    Imagine being such a partisan hack that you are irritated that a vaccine that will save the world has been developed with our support.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,677

    The inverse of targeting Easter as a date for removing restrictions by is saying that all decisions between now and then should be done with that goal in mind. Eg some restrictions could be lifted now since cases are falling but if they were then the slowdown would be slower and a bigger relaxation later might not be viable.

    A hard and fast squishing of prevalence now with a fuller reopening of the economy by Easter if viable is best for healthcare and best for the economy.

    I think that's right. We need to reduce the volume of live virus in our society massively because that means fewer chains of transmission going forward and it also reduces the risk of new variants developing. Then we need to address the same issue in the rest of the world for the same reasons. If having a target of Easter means that we keep the pedal to the metal in vaccination I don't have a problem with that. The 15m by the 15th seems to have worked well in that regard.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,268
    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,066
    Good morning. Great header - nice one Robert.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It’s annoying, isn’t it? 20 other batsmen strugggled on it, but these two have managed to somehow make it work.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,677
    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    Or not much right with the bowling. It may be different when Ashwin is delivering the ball. He is a class apart and with a new hard ball is going to make this pitch explode.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,508
    edited February 15
    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It seems considerably easier to bat when the ball is soft (something like 30+ Overs old) - England just need to try and get to that point with some batsmen still to come...
  • Nigelb said:

    Fascinating and previously untold story of the bipartisan ‘stop the steal’ campaign, which started much earlier and was considerably more organised than I’d previously understood.

    The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election
    https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

    The democracy deep state ?

    There's a generous reading of that article, and then there's one that sees paragraphs such as

    "They got states to change voting systems and laws and helped secure hundreds of millions in public and private funding. They fended off voter-suppression lawsuits, recruited armies of poll workers and got millions of people to vote by mail for the first time."

    and

    "a well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information. They were not rigging the election; they were fortifying it."

    and some of that absolutely fails the most basic sniff tests.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,697

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    Brown is an irrelevance. He should never have been PM, only weakness in Labour allowed it to happen.
    Let it go luv, let it go.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,028

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    But it adds a big risk if the impact of pubs being open increases R to 1.5 or 2 from 1.

    And the only way to do that without risk is to only do it when the numbers are low enough that any increase in actual numbers of people ill is small.

    Worse once we are out of this lockdown there is no way that a 4th lockdown is going to work.

    the safe plan would be for pubs to open in mid to late April which is after Easter but before the May bank holidays.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    We could see 17C in the south by next weekend!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited February 15
    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
  • The inverse of targeting Easter as a date for removing restrictions by is saying that all decisions between now and then should be done with that goal in mind. Eg some restrictions could be lifted now since cases are falling but if they were then the slowdown would be slower and a bigger relaxation later might not be viable.

    A hard and fast squishing of prevalence now with a fuller reopening of the economy by Easter if viable is best for healthcare and best for the economy.

    i.e. open up only schools and other education, set a new ambitious target for end of March vaccinations, tighten up whatever gaps in the system still exist or might appear.

    I simply think it will be out of Govt hands by mid-late March in terms of people starting to live, meet, socialise perhaps even work outside.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,223
    edited February 15
    The irony being that there's clearly quite a bit of household mixing going on at the moment, or at least as far as I can see around my neck of the woods, and only the absolutely barmy are doing it more safely and outside.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It seems considerably easier to bat when the ball is soft (something like 30+ Overs old) - England just need to try and get to that point with some batsmen still to come...
    That’s a good point. England needed to make the most of the new ball, but didn’t. 15 overs until we can have another one.

    And there goes Kholi! Should be easier to finish them off now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,354

    The inverse of targeting Easter as a date for removing restrictions by is saying that all decisions between now and then should be done with that goal in mind. Eg some restrictions could be lifted now since cases are falling but if they were then the slowdown would be slower and a bigger relaxation later might not be viable.

    A hard and fast squishing of prevalence now with a fuller reopening of the economy by Easter if viable is best for healthcare and best for the economy.

    i.e. open up only schools and other education, set a new ambitious target for end of March vaccinations, tighten up whatever gaps in the system still exist or might appear.

    I simply think it will be out of Govt hands by mid-late March in terms of people starting to live, meet, socialise perhaps even work outside.
    I don't see why the vaccine rate can't be doubled, unless it is/will be supply that is the issue.

    In my part of the world there are four or five vaccination centres (smallish ones - not super centres). There are plenty of additional suitable venues such as church halls, sports centres and so on. Could easily expand the # places offering the jab.

    My concern is that the achievement of the 15m target means there will be no push with NHS to increase the rate further.

    Cruise control from now on.

    Ministers need to act on this and put up more stretch targets.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    edited February 15
    Pulpstar said:

    The crowd in Chennai demonstrates a bit of reality vs science for me. Reduced capacity outdoors is fine but the whole ground should be open to maximise distancing. Instead it looks like some stands are closed and others packed.
    The call has gone out for 25% capacity or whatever and the normal method of opening 25% of the stands looks to have been broadly followed.

    Herding any sports crowd is much easier said than done, cricket crowds in India being known for their politeness and ease of following orders of course! ;)

    Some of the F1 circuits did it well last year, with groups of four or six well spaced along the stands.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,268
    Pulpstar said:

    The crowd in Chennai demonstrates a bit of reality vs science for me. Reduced capacity outdoors is fine but the whole ground should be open to maximise distancing. Instead it looks like some stands are closed and others packed.
    The call has gone out for 25% capacity or whatever and the normal method of opening 25% of the stands looks to have been broadly followed.

    Doubt it'll make too much odds in a city where people live busy and non distanced lives, and Chennai must be one of the most vivid examples of that - but still :)
  • Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It seems considerably easier to bat when the ball is soft (something like 30+ Overs old) - England just need to try and get to that point with some batsmen still to come...
    Reverse the batting order! Not quite, but opening the batting with Leach and Ali and not putting Root in until 30 overs have been bowled would probably be helpful.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,929
    DavidL said:

    The inverse of targeting Easter as a date for removing restrictions by is saying that all decisions between now and then should be done with that goal in mind. Eg some restrictions could be lifted now since cases are falling but if they were then the slowdown would be slower and a bigger relaxation later might not be viable.

    A hard and fast squishing of prevalence now with a fuller reopening of the economy by Easter if viable is best for healthcare and best for the economy.

    I think that's right. We need to reduce the volume of live virus in our society massively because that means fewer chains of transmission going forward and it also reduces the risk of new variants developing. Then we need to address the same issue in the rest of the world for the same reasons. If having a target of Easter means that we keep the pedal to the metal in vaccination I don't have a problem with that. The 15m by the 15th seems to have worked well in that regard.
    If we continue to vaccinate at the current rate we can do all the over 50s by the end of March, but 9 million won't have had the 3 weeks for immunity to develop. The official target is a month later "by May" but I don't know if that means jabbed, or jabbed +21 days.

    I reckon we are looking at:

    Easter: eating and drinking outside
    May Day: open indoors with restrictions
    Whitsun: complete freedom

    BUT it depends on progress with the virus. If it continues to fall at the current rate (about 27% per week) we'll still be seeing a couple of thousand new cases a day at Easter.

    Tim Spector in his ZOE briefing last week almost predicted a significant dropping-off in deaths this week, let's see if that happens.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,066

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Excellent article below on why the government used a separate law to allow the suspension of liberties rather than using Civil Contingencies Act.

    Note that the invocation must be temporary and has to be voted through by Parliament every six months. I think (though I`m not sure) that the current six month period expires 30 March.

    The legality of lockdown measures will I`m sure be scrutinised by the Covid Recovery Group and others over the next few weeks.

    www.lawgazette.co.uk/legal-updates/why-did-government-not-use-the-civil-contingencies-act/5103742.article
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,697
    Q: which proposition holds more water, the SNP being to blame for Scots thinking BJ is a dick, or the Chennai pitch is to blame for England being a bit crap?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,769

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    By Easter we could have 25m+ who have had 3 weeks plus since their first jab. Most everybody over 50. Maybe another 10m under 50 at various stages of the vaccine kicking in. Numbers of cases should have fallen off a cliff if the vaccines truly work as well as Israel suggest. They are already headed that way.

    Now I'm not a rigid "just end all restrictions by May" type. BUT I think we should have a timeline to plan for re-opening. Maybe 5 points on the road ahead for the next three months. The first of those points will be three weeks ahead. And we will know at least two weeks in advance that we'll go ahead with implementing that re-opening. For us not to go ahead will require things to have got materially worse than projections. The only way that happens is if people are dicks - and their actions get ahead of the opening schedule. So carrot and stick.

    The purpose, stressed at the time, is that if we keep to the plan, then there should never again be any need for lockdowns - or even obtrusive restrictions on living your day to day lives. Foreign holidays are still outside these restrictions. That (and inward travel) will be kept under review but will be the very last to go - because of the risk of that being the vector that could undo all the good work.

    But we could be seeing the endgame for Covid in this country.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 13,103
    edited February 15
    Re. case numbers. At current rates we'll be as close to zero as it's realistically possible to get with the current level of lockdown by 8th March anyway.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Is the Covid Recovery group the funky new name for the European Research Group?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 13,103
    @RochdalePioneers I hope you're settling in well to your new home!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,475
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It seems considerably easier to bat when the ball is soft (something like 30+ Overs old) - England just need to try and get to that point with some batsmen still to come...
    You only gave 50 overseas of that and then more nightmare.. if we get that far!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,475

    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It seems considerably easier to bat when the ball is soft (something like 30+ Overs old) - England just need to try and get to that point with some batsmen still to come...
    You only gave 50 overseas of that and then more nightmare.. if we get that far!
    Fffing predictive text. You only get
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,475

    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It seems considerably easier to bat when the ball is soft (something like 30+ Overs old) - England just need to try and get to that point with some batsmen still to come...
    You only gave 50 overseas of that and then more nightmare.. if we get that far!
    Fffing predictive text. You only get
    Overs
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 50,313
    edited February 15
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    But it adds a big risk if the impact of pubs being open increases R to 1.5 or 2 from 1.

    And the only way to do that without risk is to only do it when the numbers are low enough that any increase in actual numbers of people ill is small.

    Worse once we are out of this lockdown there is no way that a 4th lockdown is going to work.

    the safe plan would be for pubs to open in mid to late April which is after Easter but before the May bank holidays.
    With tens of millions vaccinated then an R of 1.5 or 2 could be very pessimistic.

    But the whole point I'm making is we should be targeting to get the numbers low enough by Easter. Currently we're seeing numbers decrease by about 25-33% per week and its been accelerating not decelerating as the vaccine rollout continues.

    If we can keep that going until the end of March then we could have a prevalence in the hundreds per day not tens of thousands per day.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 12,238
    edited February 15
    Rotating power outages of 10 - 45 minutes across Texas to try and keep the grid going during State wide winter storms

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    But it adds a big risk if the impact of pubs being open increases R to 1.5 or 2 from 1.

    And the only way to do that without risk is to only do it when the numbers are low enough that any increase in actual numbers of people ill is small.

    Worse once we are out of this lockdown there is no way that a 4th lockdown is going to work.

    the safe plan would be for pubs to open in mid to late April which is after Easter but before the May bank holidays.
    With tens of millions vaccinated then an R of 1.5 or 2 could be very pessimistic.

    But the whole point I'm making is we should be targeting to get the numbers low enough by Easter. Currently we're seeing numbers decrease by about 25-33% per week and its been accelerating not decelerating as the vaccine rollout continues.

    If we can keep that going until the end of March then we could have a prevalence in the hundreds per day not tens of thousands per day.
    The things to target are direct positive actions - numbers of vaccinations in certain groups, number of healthcare workers fully vaccinated etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 11,930
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    But it adds a big risk if the impact of pubs being open increases R to 1.5 or 2 from 1.

    And the only way to do that without risk is to only do it when the numbers are low enough that any increase in actual numbers of people ill is small.

    Worse once we are out of this lockdown there is no way that a 4th lockdown is going to work.

    the safe plan would be for pubs to open in mid to late April which is after Easter but before the May bank holidays.
    We have been trundling along at a bit below 1 for a while. M guess is that this what you get with lockdown and the schools shut. So any relaxation of measures will take us above 1.

    image
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 8,997
    edited February 15

    @RochdalePioneers I hope you're settling in well to your new home!

    Good morning! I was about to make a post just about it! Yes, we're finding our feet and ploughing through a significant number of boxes. The house - dubbed "Buckingham Palace" by one of my friends after I gave her a virtual tour - is absolutely unbelievable, still can't quite believe that we live here. Village is lovely, locals very friendly to outlanders.

    Then we have my office in the former bank. Got that set up nicely yesterday, only using one room at the moment but it'll be a big improvement on the corner of my old dining room. The rest of the bank is either empty or storage for all our garage stuff that was too slippery to drag up the rear drive to the garage in the snow.

    Huge huge potential. Also huge opportunity to spend flipping great wodges of cash* modernising the place. It is absolutely habitable, but needs listed-friendly double glazing, likely loft and floor insulation, a new eco boiler, likely solar on the garage (south facing double-length) roof etc. Happily the Scottish government makes cash available in the form of grants and long term interest free loans. McHuzzah!

    *ok so dropping nearly £2k ordering a new telly doesn't help. But having spent £lots on solicitors, removal service, estate agents etc what does it matter?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 50,313
    edited February 15

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    But it adds a big risk if the impact of pubs being open increases R to 1.5 or 2 from 1.

    And the only way to do that without risk is to only do it when the numbers are low enough that any increase in actual numbers of people ill is small.

    Worse once we are out of this lockdown there is no way that a 4th lockdown is going to work.

    the safe plan would be for pubs to open in mid to late April which is after Easter but before the May bank holidays.
    We have been trundling along at a bit below 1 for a while. M guess is that this what you get with lockdown and the schools shut. So any relaxation of measures will take us above 1.

    image
    If you look carefully actually R is continuing to go down. It ought to be going back up by now as people tire of restrictions/become less scared and take more chances, but its actually going down instead.

    Vaccine effect I think. Especially the vaccine of NHS and Care staff kicking in who were inevitably prime superspreaders.

    As the vaccine rollout continues R should continue to be pressured down by the vaccine, instead of by restrictions. That is the endgame. Prevalence low enough and R lowered by vaccine and lockdowns will be history.
  • Good batting by Ravichandran Ashwin. He's amazing. He makes Hardik Pandya look like Bhuvneshwar Kumar.

    (Wonder who gets the reference)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,989
    Good morning, everyone.

    I see Baker is asking for silly things.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,028

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    But it adds a big risk if the impact of pubs being open increases R to 1.5 or 2 from 1.

    And the only way to do that without risk is to only do it when the numbers are low enough that any increase in actual numbers of people ill is small.

    Worse once we are out of this lockdown there is no way that a 4th lockdown is going to work.

    the safe plan would be for pubs to open in mid to late April which is after Easter but before the May bank holidays.
    We have been trundling along at a bit below 1 for a while. M guess is that this what you get with lockdown and the schools shut. So any relaxation of measures will take us above 1.

    image
    If you look carefully actually R is continuing to go down. It ought to be going back up by now as people tire of restrictions/become less scared and take more chances, but its actually going down instead.

    Vaccine effect I think. Especially the vaccine of NHS and Care staff kicking in who were inevitably prime superspreaders.

    As the vaccine rollout continues R should continue to be pressured down by the vaccine, instead of by restrictions. That is the endgame. Prevalence low enough and R lowered by vaccine and lockdowns will be history.
    You only need to look at the weather over the past 2 weeks to see why R is low at the moment - no one sane is going outside at all.

    Heck even in a none Covid winter we wouldn't have done anything this week due to the ice.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,349
    edited February 15

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what Aggers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 62,950
    I think the concluding point is a very good one. The problems of the last month will not be without cost, but the overall incredible success in a global sense will minimise it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    It’s annoying, isn’t it? 20 other batsmen strugggled on it, but these two have managed to somehow make it work.
    Foakes didn’t have too much problem, either.
    If England had been able to play a second spinner with decent control, and Root had not got out to a careless sweep, the match would have looked very different.
    Bottom line is that irrespective of the toss, we were outplayed. And it also demonstrates how much more dependent on Root we are than India on Kohli.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456
    edited February 15

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,508

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    Obviously England will prove me wrong by collapsing horribly in due course, but what's interesting is that the pitch doesn't appear to be deteriorating as much as you might expect - so whilst it might have been a day 3 pitch on day 1, it's still only a late day 3 pitch on day 3 itself - rather than being a totally unplayable day 6 type pitch.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 9,331
    Good morning.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 38,891
    edited February 15
    Good morning

    Just a post to say I have not been entering the debates on here for a few days due to family health issues and other pressing matters but I have not been banned ( as far as I am aware) and do catch up the banter, but to be honest I do not have a lot of bandwidth at present
  • Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    But it adds a big risk if the impact of pubs being open increases R to 1.5 or 2 from 1.

    And the only way to do that without risk is to only do it when the numbers are low enough that any increase in actual numbers of people ill is small.

    Worse once we are out of this lockdown there is no way that a 4th lockdown is going to work.

    the safe plan would be for pubs to open in mid to late April which is after Easter but before the May bank holidays.
    With tens of millions vaccinated then an R of 1.5 or 2 could be very pessimistic.

    But the whole point I'm making is we should be targeting to get the numbers low enough by Easter. Currently we're seeing numbers decrease by about 25-33% per week and its been accelerating not decelerating as the vaccine rollout continues.

    If we can keep that going until the end of March then we could have a prevalence in the hundreds per day not tens of thousands per day.
    The things to target are direct positive actions - numbers of vaccinations in certain groups, number of healthcare workers fully vaccinated etc.
    Of course but not in a vacuum. It's the difference between tactics and stategy. A strategic ambition of having an easing by Easter means implementing the tactics necessary now to achieve that, which potentially means tougher restrictions over the next month with a payoff in the future.

    Incidentally at a point we do need to operate to a timescale and we are coming up fast to that point. Simply said a firm can't just be told "you can open" and that's it they turn the key and are trading the next day. Weeks of planning will likely be needed.

    Especially since I do not think even an Easter opening would be an opening with all restrictions lifted - that's more likely June. Instead it might be a case of open but outdoors only in which case premises may need to invest to make that work.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,727
    edited February 15

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    Brown is an irrelevance. He should never have been PM, only weakness in Labour allowed it to happen.
    That's obviously true.

    Hindsight is 20:20.

    He looked likethe best candidate to most people, by no means all in Labour, at the time.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,349
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,989
    F1: speaking of silly things, seems we'll have sprint race qualifying at three races this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/56030222

    If so, I've heard that in other categories this has led to backmarker teams focusing on the sprint race to the detriment of the proper race, which could throw up some qualifying betting potential.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,066

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    Despite being clueless abut cricket I have won bets on both tests following tips by @Peter_the_Punter

    Many thanks. Any tips for third test?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,066

    On the timetable: why not publicise the numbers they're looking for at each stage instead of a date?

    Case numbers no higher than X while hospital numbers are no higher than Y and ICU numbers no higher than Z with vaccination down to Group whatever completed (and ALL four must be met) mean that we'll try [insert single relaxation; eg schools back] and watch how R changes for two weeks before [insert next step with same metrics].

    The error of giving specific dates and then finding out that the virus doesn't care about published timetables wouldn't be repeated.

    Yes - I`ve been saying that for a couple of weeks. Pathway out should be based on specific hurdles being reached. With hospitalisations being the key metric.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 62,950

    F1: speaking of silly things, seems we'll have sprint race qualifying at three races this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/56030222

    If so, I've heard that in other categories this has led to backmarker teams focusing on the sprint race to the detriment of the proper race, which could throw up some qualifying betting potential.

    Feels like another example of F1 looking for problems when the main issue is not really something that can be fixed, that is one racer being a dominant force, which is hardly his fault.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    Despite being clueless abut cricket I have won bets on both tests following tips by @Peter_the_Punter

    Many thanks. Any tips for third test?
    Lay the draw.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,608
    Good header - encouraging, and the conclusion is right - governments including the US and UK (plus Israel and others) made exactly the right call in vaccine orders.

    Interesting discussion on whether we should now be aiming to wipe the disease out (which means more lockdown and then total freedom) or go for a maintenance strategy (accept it's permanent, and take some precautions): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/14/coronavirus-covid-19-cost-price-life

    I'm a big fan of the QALY approach but see its limitations here.
Sign In or Register to comment.