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From Absence to Shortage to Glut – Covid 19 Vaccines in Just Nine Months – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    On Topic.

    And, for those who can't wait their turn for their vaccinations, here's how to make your own:

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine?fbclid=IwAR2VVrwSLxNjnzv0XKYEBJl_I1S6yJCz1TTLt7nF8NCm4AWJJAiHmmaEI5o
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    And.....like clockwork the moaning has started....

    Meanwhile, British businessman Wayne Kelly was warned he faces a £500 fine after landing at Heathrow today from a trip to Dubai without booking a quarantine hotel.

    He said he had 'no idea' about the new ten-day isolation rules for red list countries before he was handed a note by Border Force warning him to expect a fine for breaching Covid laws.

    Mr Kelly, from Birmingham, said: 'I didn't know what this is all about and I still don't understand it. I came in from Dubai. I've now got a pay £1,750 to stay in a hotel.

    'And this letter they've given me says I could be fined another £500. I'm trying to work and make a living. It's a terrible way to treat people.'

    Mr Kelly, who works in property, claimed he hadn't been reading the papers or watching TV and knew nothing of the new quarantine rules.

    'The first I realised I was going to be in this trouble was when I got off the plane,' he said. 'Now I've got this nightmare of being put into a hotel when I've actually got a home in Birmingham with my family.

    'I was in Dubai last month when I got back I quarantined at home with no problem. I should be allowed to do that again.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9261439/Welcome-Hotel-Quarantine-Heathrow-arrivals-land.html

    If you are a regular international flier during these times, I just don't believe you never ever look at what possible change of rules are occurring, or that nobody in your family or friendship group would have possibly mentioned it.

    I still can't get my head around why anyone is flying. How is it OK to go on a business trip to Dubai, when you could do any meeting via Zoom or Teams? How is OK to go Dubai but not go 10 miles down the road? There are people that have forgone going to relatives funerals during this crisis, but some people still think it is OK to fly around the world on some flimsy pretext. I would really like to know what "justification" anyone has for risking bringing in a new variant of Covid into the country at the moment. If it is acceptable to close down a hospitality business because of Covid it is surely OK to stop some smart arse "property" businessman/speculator from going to Dubai
    Yes. The "flew to Chile to spend some time with family" guy moaning stands out.
    Have these people no self-awareness?
  • Just one more week of speculation before we see the Boris plan...

    Should give him enough time to find an appropriate fag packet
  • I hope Government have block booked Britannia Hotels specifically for the chancers that are caught evading the quarantine rules.

    Still too good for them....One of those old style Travelodges at busy motorway service stations...and all food has to come from the Little Chef next to it.
    You have spelled 'Little Thief' incorrectly.

    Robbing bastards once charged me £18.95 for a fish and chips that turned out to be 4 fish fingers and about 8 chips.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?

    Benedict Cumberbatch would be deliciously ironic!
  • England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
  • Floater said:

    Selebian said:

    Floater said:
    One reply (on vaccine passports) is:

    Same debate taking place in UK but the biggest issue is intergenerational fairness.

    People <35 have been disproportionately affected & it's cost to them has been massive & on behalf of 60+s, already the wealthiest & now most immunised.</i>

    It risks ugliness if 60+ win all round.

    There's something in that, but I think it's at least arguable that also bearing the brunt of deaths means that 60+ year olds have not "won all round".

    Serious debate to be had between differential freedom (bad, from a fairness point of view, in some ways) and letting the fully vaccinated get out and spend their money so that the youngsters have a greater chance of keeping jobs and having less public debt to deal with. Hopefully, by the time most 60+ are fully vaccinated there will already be a lot more freedom for everyone than there is now.
    My son runs a bar and is under financial pressure - if this allows the bar to open for at least some clientele sooner rather than later so much the better for him and for our economy
    Yes, exactly. I do understand why for the moment the government is emphasising that it wants people to get jabbed without pressure being put on them, but the crucial point about vaccine 'passports' is that they will allow pubs, restaurants, concert halls, theatres, gyms to re-open earlier, and without the very stringent social-distancing rules which are economically and in some cases physically unviable. If we want to get things back to something like normal ASAP, we shouldn't hold back those who are already vaccinated just because some idiots aren't. Quite apart from the absurdity of having people 'all jabbed up with nowhere to go', it's an economic imperative.
    Absolutely. I am a live music fan and would be more than happy to prove I have been vaccinated in order to attend a concert. Those that chose not to be vaccinated should absolutely have that right, but by doing so they can choose to stay at home and not attend public gatherings
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    And.....like clockwork the moaning has started....

    Meanwhile, British businessman Wayne Kelly was warned he faces a £500 fine after landing at Heathrow today from a trip to Dubai without booking a quarantine hotel.

    He said he had 'no idea' about the new ten-day isolation rules for red list countries before he was handed a note by Border Force warning him to expect a fine for breaching Covid laws.

    Mr Kelly, from Birmingham, said: 'I didn't know what this is all about and I still don't understand it. I came in from Dubai. I've now got a pay £1,750 to stay in a hotel.

    'And this letter they've given me says I could be fined another £500. I'm trying to work and make a living. It's a terrible way to treat people.'

    Mr Kelly, who works in property, claimed he hadn't been reading the papers or watching TV and knew nothing of the new quarantine rules.

    'The first I realised I was going to be in this trouble was when I got off the plane,' he said. 'Now I've got this nightmare of being put into a hotel when I've actually got a home in Birmingham with my family.

    'I was in Dubai last month when I got back I quarantined at home with no problem. I should be allowed to do that again.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9261439/Welcome-Hotel-Quarantine-Heathrow-arrivals-land.html

    If you are a regular international flier during these times, I just don't believe you never ever look at what possible change of rules are occurring, or that nobody in your family or friendship group would have possibly mentioned it.

    The twat deserves double the time for the whingeing!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    I have mentioned for a while that this is something the focus groups have picked up on for months.

    Dominic Cummings was instrumental in the process of awarding a government contract without tender to a company run by his “friends”, according to court documents that raise questions about whether the Cabinet Office may have misled the public.

    The documents reveal the central role the prime minister’s former chief adviser played in the awarding of the contract to Public First, a research company owned and run by two of his longstanding associates.

    Public First was paid £564,393 to research the public’s understanding of the coronavirus and the government’s messaging around the pandemic, and one of its partners was seconded to work in Downing Street.

    The company is run by James Frayne and Rachel Wolf, who are both former colleagues of Cummings and the Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove. In 2019 Wolf co-wrote the Conservative party’s general election manifesto.

    When the Guardian and openDemocracy first revealed in July last year that Public First had been awarded a contract without tender, the Cabinet Office said in a statement it was “nonsense” to suggest the owners’ long associations with Cummings and Gove were a factor in the decision to award it a contract.

    However, in a witness statement submitted to the high court on Monday as part of a judicial review of the award, Cummings described himself as the “driving decision-maker” behind the government’s decision to conduct more focus groups and hire Public First, and said his faith in the company was based on his extensive experience working with its staff.

    Cummings described Frayne and Wolf as his “friends”, but added: “Obviously I did not request Public First be brought in because they were my friends. I would never do such a thing.” He said he “requested” civil servants hire the firm because, in his experience, it was the only company with the expertise to carry out the required focus groups urgently.

    “The fact that I knew the key Public First people well was a bonus, not a problem,” he said, “as in such a high pressure environment trust is very important, as well as technical competence.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/15/revealed-cummings-role-handing-covid-contract-firm-run-by-friends

    I actually believe him and know the temptation - you want something done well, you know someone who's really good at doing things like that, so you prefer them to the open market. Most of us go back to familiar, reliable plumbers etc. in exactly that way, and nobody puts a leaky tap out to tender. But it's typical of Cummings (and seemingly not only Cummings in this government) that he thinks one can transfer that straight into public procurement worth half a million quid.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?
    I dinna McKenna.
    Tha was virgin on amusing....
  • I hope Government have block booked Britannia Hotels specifically for the chancers that are caught evading the quarantine rules.

    Still too good for them....One of those old style Travelodges at busy motorway service stations...and all food has to come from the Little Chef next to it.
    You have spelled 'Little Thief' incorrectly.

    Robbing bastards once charged me £18.95 for a fish and chips that turned out to be 4 fish fingers and about 8 chips.
    You ate at a Little Shit? I thought better of you than that...
  • I can't see why electric cars can't synthesize the feel of petrol with a selective "mode" on the open road.

    The noise an indicator makes (click-clonk, click-clonk) is totally artificial - it's because people missed the original bimetallic strip that operated a blinkered sidelamp.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I hope Government have block booked Britannia Hotels specifically for the chancers that are caught evading the quarantine rules.

    Still too good for them....One of those old style Travelodges at busy motorway service stations...and all food has to come from the Little Chef next to it.
    You have spelled 'Little Thief' incorrectly.

    Robbing bastards once charged me £18.95 for a fish and chips that turned out to be 4 fish fingers and about 8 chips.
    They saw you coming

    Never spend more than 8.99 on a little chef meal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Floater said:
    You saying it's like Brexit never happened?
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?

    Benedict Cumberbatch would be deliciously ironic!
    I think the best person to play Boris "er er er" Johnson would be Boris Johnson. He has been playing the part all his life, and no one else could come across in quite such a twattish way however good they were at acting.
  • Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    The UK has done well with vaccine ordering.
    From the Independent 3 Sep 2020
    "The UK government has already secured 100 million doses of the vaccine, while the EU, Germany and the US have placed similar advance orders."
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited February 2021
    felix said:

    And.....like clockwork the moaning has started....

    Meanwhile, British businessman Wayne Kelly was warned he faces a £500 fine after landing at Heathrow today from a trip to Dubai without booking a quarantine hotel.

    He said he had 'no idea' about the new ten-day isolation rules for red list countries before he was handed a note by Border Force warning him to expect a fine for breaching Covid laws.

    Mr Kelly, from Birmingham, said: 'I didn't know what this is all about and I still don't understand it. I came in from Dubai. I've now got a pay £1,750 to stay in a hotel.

    'And this letter they've given me says I could be fined another £500. I'm trying to work and make a living. It's a terrible way to treat people.'

    Mr Kelly, who works in property, claimed he hadn't been reading the papers or watching TV and knew nothing of the new quarantine rules.

    'The first I realised I was going to be in this trouble was when I got off the plane,' he said. 'Now I've got this nightmare of being put into a hotel when I've actually got a home in Birmingham with my family.

    'I was in Dubai last month when I got back I quarantined at home with no problem. I should be allowed to do that again.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9261439/Welcome-Hotel-Quarantine-Heathrow-arrivals-land.html

    If you are a regular international flier during these times, I just don't believe you never ever look at what possible change of rules are occurring, or that nobody in your family or friendship group would have possibly mentioned it.

    The twat deserves double the time for the whingeing!
    Plus a 100% "just how dumb do you think we are?" surcharge.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited February 2021

    I hope Government have block booked Britannia Hotels specifically for the chancers that are caught evading the quarantine rules.

    Still too good for them....One of those old style Travelodges at busy motorway service stations...and all food has to come from the Little Chef next to it.
    You have spelled 'Little Thief' incorrectly.

    Robbing bastards once charged me £18.95 for a fish and chips that turned out to be 4 fish fingers and about 8 chips.
    You ate at a Little Shit? I thought better of you than that...
    Charles said:

    I hope Government have block booked Britannia Hotels specifically for the chancers that are caught evading the quarantine rules.

    Still too good for them....One of those old style Travelodges at busy motorway service stations...and all food has to come from the Little Chef next to it.
    You have spelled 'Little Thief' incorrectly.

    Robbing bastards once charged me £18.95 for a fish and chips that turned out to be 4 fish fingers and about 8 chips.
    They saw you coming

    Never spend more than 8.99 on a little chef meal
    It was a long car journey, it was the only option, and it was the only halal compliant hot meal on the menu.

    You have no idea how difficult it is to be a good Muslim in this country.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    The vaccine supply and delivery detail is commercially sensitive for the manufacturers, who don’t want countries arguing with them over the order in which deliveries are made.
  • Status quo "par" is probably sterling in the 1.45-1.55 box but yes it's not too far off. About 7% down.

    The pound-euro one is the more interesting measure. That should probably be around 1.25-1.30 rather than 1.15, so 11-12% down, and the pound still looks a tad cheap to me compared to continental Europe.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?

    Benedict Cumberbatch would be deliciously ironic!
    I think the best person to play Boris "er er er" Johnson would be Boris Johnson. He has been playing the part all his life, and no one else could come across in quite such a twattish way however good they were at acting.
    Reminds me of that Donald Trump interview in the 80s. Asked who he'd choose to play the lead in a movie of his life he said "Me" as if any other answer was unthinkable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?
    I dinna McKenna.
    Tha was virgin on amusing....
    No Bill.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    Yes, Always Singing is wrong about this – the new target is clearly April 30 and it's been laid down as such by the government. No vacillation, no excuses. The final counting day therefore will be 1 May.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,091
    edited February 2021

    I hope Government have block booked Britannia Hotels specifically for the chancers that are caught evading the quarantine rules.

    Still too good for them....One of those old style Travelodges at busy motorway service stations...and all food has to come from the Little Chef next to it.
    You have spelled 'Little Thief' incorrectly.

    Robbing bastards once charged me £18.95 for a fish and chips that turned out to be 4 fish fingers and about 8 chips.
    You should have had a smaller quantity of champagne.

    Once went on a tour of nearly every cathedral in the country paying £5 a night at Travelodge. :smile:

    I think I missed Exeter, Truro and IoM.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    There are 75 counting days remaining for the new target.

    Required run rate is 226,667 first doses/day.

    Remember that second doses will be deployed in tandem.
  • England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

    My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

    --AS
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    edited February 2021

    England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

    My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

    --AS
    WRONG

    The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

    It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?
    Whoever you want, you're getting Ken Branagh:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/kenneth-branagh-to-play-boris-johnson-in-tv-drama-about-covid-crisis
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited February 2021
    9,765 cases. First day under 10K in a long time!

    Over 4K fewer than the same day last week.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,091

    AnneJGP said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    Very well said.

    Though LOL I find it very amusing some bitter and twisted individual has marked your post and mine you replied to as Off Topic. I wonder if that sad, twisted individual even read the thread header since it's quite literally on topic.

    Imagine being such a partisan hack that you are irritated that a vaccine that will save the world has been developed with our support.
    Just joined and way behind the thread but do please make some allowance for the possibility that your sad, twisted individual may simply have fat finger syndrome. On my smartphone it's only too easy to hit one of those active spots without knowing you've done it.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    If its just the one sure its entirely possible to do it by accident, though if you see it you can remove it.

    When someone flags as off topic all the posts of a certain PoV in a conversation its just petulant and silly. Unlikely to be a series of coincidental accidents when a train of thought in multiple messages are simultaneously flagged.
    Indeed. Up there with Rename being next to Delete in the popup menus on Windows.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited February 2021
    MrEd said:

    In case it hasn't been posted, worth taking a read of this:

    https://rmbodenheimer.medium.com/a-progressive-parents-rant-about-the-politics-surrounding-school-reopening-a816cae963fd

    One of the most interesting things in here is the suggestion about normally pro-Democratic parents flipping the switch if the schools don't reopen soon. The teachers' unions are suggesting schools don't reopen until the Fall and the Biden Administration doesn't seem willing to take them on, nor indeed do Governors such as Newsom and Cuomo.

    Well outside of NYC most NYS schools are at least partially open, and I think schools will fully reopen well before the fall. The state’s numbers are consistently improving and vaccination eligibility now extends to people with comorbidities including obesity and diabetes. I qualify under the second, and I have my first shot scheduled for early April.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Floater said:

    Selebian said:

    Floater said:
    One reply (on vaccine passports) is:

    Same debate taking place in UK but the biggest issue is intergenerational fairness.

    People <35 have been disproportionately affected & it's cost to them has been massive & on behalf of 60+s, already the wealthiest & now most immunised.</i>

    It risks ugliness if 60+ win all round.

    There's something in that, but I think it's at least arguable that also bearing the brunt of deaths means that 60+ year olds have not "won all round".

    Serious debate to be had between differential freedom (bad, from a fairness point of view, in some ways) and letting the fully vaccinated get out and spend their money so that the youngsters have a greater chance of keeping jobs and having less public debt to deal with. Hopefully, by the time most 60+ are fully vaccinated there will already be a lot more freedom for everyone than there is now.
    My son runs a bar and is under financial pressure - if this allows the bar to open for at least some clientele sooner rather than later so much the better for him and for our economy
    Yes, exactly. I do understand why for the moment the government is emphasising that it wants people to get jabbed without pressure being put on them, but the crucial point about vaccine 'passports' is that they will allow pubs, restaurants, concert halls, theatres, gyms to re-open earlier, and without the very stringent social-distancing rules which are economically and in some cases physically unviable. If we want to get things back to something like normal ASAP, we shouldn't hold back those who are already vaccinated just because some idiots aren't. Quite apart from the absurdity of having people 'all jabbed up with nowhere to go', it's an economic imperative.
    Absolutely. I am a live music fan and would be more than happy to prove I have been vaccinated in order to attend a concert. Those that chose not to be vaccinated should absolutely have that right, but by doing so they can choose to stay at home and not attend public gatherings
    The issue is that we will have a period when it's not about choice, because the young cannot be vaccinated until later.

    My university-aged daughter will understandably feel a bit sore about not being allowed to do stuff for several more months, mainly for the benefit of her parents and grandparents generation, when they are then off enjoying themselves after being vaccinated.

    It's unjust to punish people for making a choice that they can't make.
  • England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

    My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

    --AS
    WRONG

    The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

    It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.
    I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

    --AS
  • Trump is US third best President in American history according to You Gov America

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1361340833690226689?s=19
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Week-on-week 7-day death rate averaging 657 a day now.

    Positive deaths seem to be averaging a 30% drop w-o-w, with deaths and admissions averaging a 7-day drop of some 25% each.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    eek said:

    eek said:

    "We'll just turn our software into cash'.......

    https://twitter.com/spencer68/status/1361278599618301953?s=20

    I was hoping for a nice and relaxing 2021 on the professional front. #BaileyMustGo

    FWIW back in the FSA days I had a friend who ran his own remortgage firm which he thought met the 2.5% capital adequacy requirements and so did the FSA, until it went bust and then they realised the overdrawn directors' loan accounts were never realisable.
    Um the point is that we aren't following the ECB and letting banks use software assets as actual resalable assets.

    However Bailey really wasn't a suitable person to lead the BoE and his FSA days confirm as much.

    I just expect him to start picking at other things to show he's doing something.

    But spare a thought for those who have spent the last few years setting up were capitalised EU subsidiaries and now have to go through a process of alignment.
    Easy, book the software upgrade in Amsterdam and hard cash in London.
    If only it was that easy.
    A good lawyer like yourself should easily find a way of doing such a thing.
    The buggeration factor is really high.
    A legal term of art no doubt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?
    Whoever you want, you're getting Ken Branagh:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/kenneth-branagh-to-play-boris-johnson-in-tv-drama-about-covid-crisis
    Great actor, odd choice.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,091
    Does anyone have a decent handle on this?

    https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1361226744582266881
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    Trump is US third best President in American history according to You Gov America

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1361340833690226689?s=19

    Reagan was best by a country mile.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

    My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

    --AS
    WRONG

    The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

    It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.
    I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

    --AS
    It is 17 million new first doses by 30 April, 2359hrs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56016357

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited February 2021
    The picture of the hotel room in the Daily Merkle ready for these air travellers looks grim.

    Amenities include "Window Overlooking Airport" and "Comfortable Armchair to Watch Planes".

    One or two them seem to have difficulty understanding what a quarantine is:

    [Roger Concalves] added "The people in the hotel will give food to me for lunch and dinner, everything, but I can't go out. That's crazy.'

    I can't decide.

    Do the DM journalists make this stuff up? Or are people travelling in a global pandemic really that thick?
  • England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

    My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

    --AS
    WRONG

    The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

    It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.
    I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

    --AS
    It is 17 million new first doses by 30 April, 2359hrs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56016357

    Well, let's see what he says today. That story doesn't contain any commitment, merely a "ministers hope". And no 17 million number.

    --AS
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Floater said:

    Selebian said:

    Floater said:
    One reply (on vaccine passports) is:

    Same debate taking place in UK but the biggest issue is intergenerational fairness.

    People <35 have been disproportionately affected & it's cost to them has been massive & on behalf of 60+s, already the wealthiest & now most immunised.</i>

    It risks ugliness if 60+ win all round.

    There's something in that, but I think it's at least arguable that also bearing the brunt of deaths means that 60+ year olds have not "won all round".

    Serious debate to be had between differential freedom (bad, from a fairness point of view, in some ways) and letting the fully vaccinated get out and spend their money so that the youngsters have a greater chance of keeping jobs and having less public debt to deal with. Hopefully, by the time most 60+ are fully vaccinated there will already be a lot more freedom for everyone than there is now.
    My son runs a bar and is under financial pressure - if this allows the bar to open for at least some clientele sooner rather than later so much the better for him and for our economy
    Yes, exactly. I do understand why for the moment the government is emphasising that it wants people to get jabbed without pressure being put on them, but the crucial point about vaccine 'passports' is that they will allow pubs, restaurants, concert halls, theatres, gyms to re-open earlier, and without the very stringent social-distancing rules which are economically and in some cases physically unviable. If we want to get things back to something like normal ASAP, we shouldn't hold back those who are already vaccinated just because some idiots aren't. Quite apart from the absurdity of having people 'all jabbed up with nowhere to go', it's an economic imperative.
    Absolutely. I am a live music fan and would be more than happy to prove I have been vaccinated in order to attend a concert. Those that chose not to be vaccinated should absolutely have that right, but by doing so they can choose to stay at home and not attend public gatherings
    The issue is that we will have a period when it's not about choice, because the young cannot be vaccinated until later.

    My university-aged daughter will understandably feel a bit sore about not being allowed to do stuff for several more months, mainly for the benefit of her parents and grandparents generation, when they are then off enjoying themselves after being vaccinated.

    It's unjust to punish people for making a choice that they can't make.
    My view is that vaccine passports for domestic purposes is a non-starter. I can see it for international travel (maybe) but little else.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    Great article.

    The world is lucky that the UK and USA backed the experimental vaccines. Had we all done what Europe have done we'd still be waiting.

    Amusing that Brown claimed to have saved the world, but in one way Johnson has actually done so. :naughty:

    He has.

    The Left would love to have us believe it's all because of the NHS.

    Clearly there are a LOT of players in this from the UK side who deserve credit. Kate Bingham was instrumental from a business background: the kind of ball-busting no nonsense spending of public money like a risk investor that got the job done. The contrast there with the EU should make europhiles weep and weep. Others too played key roles, from Matt Hancock, the scientists (of course!), the MHRA who worked on data in line, unlike the EU who stupidly waited to assess it when it was all in at the end, to Steve Bates, Patrick Vallance etc.

    But behind it all is Boris Johnson. Whether by serendipity or foresight he has overseen this country's most important success since the Second World War.

    The previous fastest ever vaccine development was 4 years. This one took 9 months and the UK led the world in the rollout.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-rare-and-resounding-success-how-the-uks-great-vaccine-gamble-paid-off-12216311

    It's a stunning success story. I know the Boris haters loathe to be told the truth but they will have to simply face up to the fact, as have I. On this Boris has been brilliant.
    The only remaining question is what can humanity do to show its gratitude? The Nobel Prize is, presumably, already in the bag, though Boris might regard that as a bit tainted after that lightweight Obama got it. Could we do a Mount Rushmore and have Boris's face engraved on the side of Ben Nevis? Biden could definitely make a gesture, and atone for that Churchill impertinence, by naming a distract in New York, the city of Boris's birth, which will soon be imbued with Bethlehem-like significance for many, as Boris District. That would be a small but significant start.
    Carve his face on the white cliffs of Dover, so that people coming from France can see it.
    Carve his name with Pride - I feel a war film coming on....
    Who would you choose to play Boris?
    Whoever you want, you're getting Ken Branagh:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/kenneth-branagh-to-play-boris-johnson-in-tv-drama-about-covid-crisis
    Great actor, odd choice.
    Good fun getting in Boris condition for the role though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

    My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

    --AS
    WRONG

    The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

    It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.
    I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

    --AS
    It is 17 million new first doses by 30 April, 2359hrs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56016357

    Well, let's see what he says today. That story doesn't contain any commitment, merely a "ministers hope". And no 17 million number.

    --AS

    The numbers are in the table at the bottom.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:

    Selebian said:

    Floater said:
    One reply (on vaccine passports) is:

    Same debate taking place in UK but the biggest issue is intergenerational fairness.

    People <35 have been disproportionately affected & it's cost to them has been massive & on behalf of 60+s, already the wealthiest & now most immunised.</i>

    It risks ugliness if 60+ win all round.

    There's something in that, but I think it's at least arguable that also bearing the brunt of deaths means that 60+ year olds have not "won all round".

    Serious debate to be had between differential freedom (bad, from a fairness point of view, in some ways) and letting the fully vaccinated get out and spend their money so that the youngsters have a greater chance of keeping jobs and having less public debt to deal with. Hopefully, by the time most 60+ are fully vaccinated there will already be a lot more freedom for everyone than there is now.
    My son runs a bar and is under financial pressure - if this allows the bar to open for at least some clientele sooner rather than later so much the better for him and for our economy
    Yes, exactly. I do understand why for the moment the government is emphasising that it wants people to get jabbed without pressure being put on them, but the crucial point about vaccine 'passports' is that they will allow pubs, restaurants, concert halls, theatres, gyms to re-open earlier, and without the very stringent social-distancing rules which are economically and in some cases physically unviable. If we want to get things back to something like normal ASAP, we shouldn't hold back those who are already vaccinated just because some idiots aren't. Quite apart from the absurdity of having people 'all jabbed up with nowhere to go', it's an economic imperative.
    Absolutely. I am a live music fan and would be more than happy to prove I have been vaccinated in order to attend a concert. Those that chose not to be vaccinated should absolutely have that right, but by doing so they can choose to stay at home and not attend public gatherings
    The issue is that we will have a period when it's not about choice, because the young cannot be vaccinated until later.

    My university-aged daughter will understandably feel a bit sore about not being allowed to do stuff for several more months, mainly for the benefit of her parents and grandparents generation, when they are then off enjoying themselves after being vaccinated.

    It's unjust to punish people for making a choice that they can't make.
    My view is that vaccine passports for domestic purposes is a non-starter. I can see it for international travel (maybe) but little else.
    Completely agree. For international travel if destination country insists on it, i.e. not a blanket requirement wherever you are going. Same as with yellow fever.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Chinese TV features blackface performers in New Year's gala
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/art/2021/02/398_303959.html
  • England Only Vaccinations

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 187,246 837 188,083
    East Of England 22,493 138 22,631
    London 30,631 45 30,676
    Midlands 42,214 120 42,334
    North East And Yorkshire 21,122 223 21,345
    North West 18,663 23 18,686
    South East 33,088 233 33,321
    South West 18,348 54 18,402

    Could you please form an orderly queue to the panic. Tea and biscuits will be served.

    There's certainly no need for panic, but that is a poor return even for a Monday.

    Might just be a project-shift effect.
    We can speculate on a number of factors. The weekend (always lower). Struggling with supply. Keeping back for 2nd doses. Run out of arms as group 1-4 finish, but not widespread call for next cohort.

    All are possible and probably some are right.

    BUT - we don't know for sure.

    Just hope its temporary and that we can get the numbers moving upwards again.
    This has been pretty clearly signalled. Comments from the devolved administrations even included numbers, which suggest that the UK as a whole will be down about a million doses a week for the next couple of weeks. If they have to hold back a bit for second doses, expect first doses to drop significantly (I heard one person on the radio suggest that they might more than halve).

    I have been a bit frustrated by comments here getting over-excited. It does not follow that, because we just barely managed 2.9 million doses last week, that we will have 4 million doses by the week after next, and be giving 3 million *first* doses a week throughout March. It's not credible. Long-term, sure, more supplies are coming, but that's a way off still. I think many overestimate how quickly these will be available in quantity, just as we overestimated initial supply of the current vaccines.

    There's a reason the government have said that all over-50s will have one dose by "early May". They may beat that a little, end of April say, but it's Panglossian to start assuming all over-50s will be done by the end of March plus even the over-45s significantly covered, as I saw someone predict.

    --AS
    I have seen several ministers refer to by May directly to mean by end of April. There is for some of us a frustration at a seemingly lack of clarity over vaccine supply here. Do we have a right to know? Are there issues about the supply which need to be kept out of the public domain? On the whole, the UK government(s) have been pretty open with data (possibly more so than many countries, but on vaccine supply on a daily basis, this is not the case, and its natural to wonder why.
    I understand that future supply information is given on a confidential basis (for commercial reasons), and contracts contain nondisclosure clauses. We've seen reference to that for both Pfizer and AZ. I don't know whether we have a moral right to know, but if the nondisclosure was voided then I imagine that the manufacturers would simply stop predicting supply if they want to keep it secret.

    My guess is that a "by May" target is deliberately vaguely worded to allow for slippage. And given how well they have rolled out delivery, slippage would only be caused by supply shortage.

    --AS
    WRONG

    The target is 17 million first doses by 2359hrs on 30 April.

    It's crystal clear and not vague in the slightest.
    I've heard some say groups 1-9 by 30 April (not specifically 17 million) and others say "by May". On the radio at lunchtime someone from Scotland was saying groups 1-9 "by early May". Do you have a source for your specific target?

    --AS
    It is 17 million new first doses by 30 April, 2359hrs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56016357

    Well, let's see what he says today. That story doesn't contain any commitment, merely a "ministers hope". And no 17 million number.

    --AS

    The numbers are in the table at the bottom.
    I expect 'by 30 April' to appear in the Plan next week.
  • NEW THREAD
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    The picture of the hotel room in the Daily Merkle ready for these air travellers looks grim.

    Amenities include "Window Overlooking Airport" and "Comfortable Armchair to Watch Planes".

    One or two them seem to have difficulty understanding what a quarantine is:

    [Roger Concalves] added "The people in the hotel will give food to me for lunch and dinner, everything, but I can't go out. That's crazy.'

    I can't decide.

    Do the DM journalists make this stuff up? Or are people travelling in a global pandemic really that thick?

    Just think how stupid the average person appears, then remember that half of them are more stupid than that.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Status quo "par" is probably sterling in the 1.45-1.55 box but yes it's not too far off. About 7% down.

    The pound-euro one is the more interesting measure. That should probably be around 1.25-1.30 rather than 1.15, so 11-12% down, and the pound still looks a tad cheap to me compared to continental Europe.
    Yes, at least 1.50 I`d say. People tend to compare against the price the day before the ref result but the pound had been falling for a few months before that on ref result concerns.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I think we've overdone it on the JCVI groups slightly, groups 7 -> 5 (60 - 70 + vulnerable) being treated as a single cohort to be done "next" would probably skip a bit of turnaround time. Hopefully if there's bookings going unfilled they will be extended cohorts downward.
This discussion has been closed.