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From Absence to Shortage to Glut – Covid 19 Vaccines in Just Nine Months – politicalbetting.com

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  • Mr. kle4, aero in the race is one factor but a level financial playing field is even more important.

    Qualifying works fine. This is the second time they've dicked about with it when nobody thinks this is what needs changing.

    (The last time was having cars eliminated one by one as a clock ticked down which brilliantly led to drivers on hot laps being eliminated before they could even reach the line. It was so rubbish it got dropped after a race or two when the fans informed F1 that it was as stupid as everyone not an F1 decision-maker had predicted).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    edited February 2021
    Difficult to believe that some consultants have decided not to take the vaccine, which I read on here yesterday.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388

    On the timetable: why not publicise the numbers they're looking for at each stage instead of a date?

    Case numbers no higher than X while hospital numbers are no higher than Y and ICU numbers no higher than Z with vaccination down to Group whatever completed (and ALL four must be met) mean that we'll try [insert single relaxation; eg schools back] and watch how R changes for two weeks before [insert next step with same metrics].

    The error of giving specific dates and then finding out that the virus doesn't care about published timetables wouldn't be repeated.

    I agree. Catchy slogan: the timetable for easing restrictions will be set by the data, not by the date.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    The weather in Texas this week is freakishly cold, next week in Houston will be 30°C warmer than this week.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    On the timetable: why not publicise the numbers they're looking for at each stage instead of a date?

    Case numbers no higher than X while hospital numbers are no higher than Y and ICU numbers no higher than Z with vaccination down to Group whatever completed (and ALL four must be met) mean that we'll try [insert single relaxation; eg schools back] and watch how R changes for two weeks before [insert next step with same metrics].

    The error of giving specific dates and then finding out that the virus doesn't care about published timetables wouldn't be repeated.

    I agree. Catchy slogan: the timetable for easing restrictions will be set by the data, not by the date.
    :+1:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,666
    edited February 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    Despite being clueless abut cricket I have won bets on both tests following tips by @Peter_the_Punter

    Many thanks. Any tips for third test?
    Lay the draw.
    Actually, hang fire on that.

    It's a day night test in Ahmedabad, and I'd wait until closer to the start of the test and we have an accurate weather forecast, it can get quite foggy and misty in that part of the world after it goes dark.

    We could lose large chunks of play there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Mr. kle4, aero in the race is one factor but a level financial playing field is even more important.

    Qualifying works fine. This is the second time they've dicked about with it when nobody thinks this is what needs changing.

    (The last time was having cars eliminated one by one as a clock ticked down which brilliantly led to drivers on hot laps being eliminated before they could even reach the line. It was so rubbish it got dropped after a race or two when the fans informed F1 that it was as stupid as everyone not an F1 decision-maker had predicted).

    Yep, qualifying is the one bit that works at the moment.

    Also, if you’re going to call it a sprint race, give them new engines and tyres for it - if race lap records aren’t being obliterated then they’re doing it wrong.

    A sprint race starting on old tyres with engines turned down, with no-one risking an off because it sets the grid for Sunday, is going to be boring as hell to watch
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Another friend and ex colleague of mine done in Rotherham, group 6.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    Despite being clueless abut cricket I have won bets on both tests following tips by @Peter_the_Punter

    Many thanks. Any tips for third test?
    Lay the draw.
    Actually, hang fire on that.

    It's a day night test in Ahmedabad, and I'd wait until closer to the start of the test and we have an accurate weather forecast, it can get quite foggy and misty in that part of the world after it goes dark.

    We could lose large chunks of play there.
    Ooh, that’s interesting. How foggy does it have to be, to go off for bad light under the floods?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    edited February 2021
    Washington DC has BMI > 25 as a priority criteria. Which pretty much will include any man that lifts weights at a gym, and plenty that don't !
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    I am rendered speechless by your post!

    Anyway, I thought the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine was developed by a Turkish couple in Germany. Although I suspect they speak very good English.
  • Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    That post reminded me of Jonathan Aitken's quote.

    If you asked her (Margaret Thatcher) about Sinai, she would probably think it was the plural for sinus.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,666
    edited February 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    Despite being clueless abut cricket I have won bets on both tests following tips by @Peter_the_Punter

    Many thanks. Any tips for third test?
    Lay the draw.
    Actually, hang fire on that.

    It's a day night test in Ahmedabad, and I'd wait until closer to the start of the test and we have an accurate weather forecast, it can get quite foggy and misty in that part of the world after it goes dark.

    We could lose large chunks of play there.
    Ooh, that’s interesting. How foggy does it have to be, to go off for bad light under the floods?
    Not that foggy, it becomes a safety issue for the players.

    Remember what it is like driving in car at night with the headlights on during fog.

    Then imagine Archer, Wood, and Stone bowling at you.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Good morning

    Just a post to say I have not been entering the debates on here for a few days due to family health issues and other pressing matters but I have not been banned ( as far as I am aware) and do catch up the banter, but to be honest I do not have a lot of bandwidth at present

    Best wishes
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    By Easter we could have 25m+ who have had 3 weeks plus since their first jab. Most everybody over 50. Maybe another 10m under 50 at various stages of the vaccine kicking in. Numbers of cases should have fallen off a cliff if the vaccines truly work as well as Israel suggest. They are already headed that way.

    But we could be seeing the endgame for Covid in this country.
    I think those numbers are actually pessimistic.

    We are at 15 million plus. Easter is 7 weeks off. 4 weeks at 3 million a week is 12 million.

    I would go for setting another stretch target for groups 1-9 to nearly wrap it up, and starting to roll in others in the couple of weeks before Easter as the dribs and drabs are caught, or tactically before that. With some prioritisation for "frontline" type people in unlocking - teachers, shopworkers, transport drivers etc.

    I'm still firmly of a cautious view on unlocking, however. And it all continues to be tactical.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,596

    Scott_xP said:
    Is the Covid Recovery group the funky new name for the European Research Group?
    Their "demand" that people who've had the vaccine should be free to do anything seems to ignore the fact that they are still capable of carrying the virus and infecting other people.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    Despite being clueless abut cricket I have won bets on both tests following tips by @Peter_the_Punter

    Many thanks. Any tips for third test?
    Lay the draw.
    Actually, hang fire on that.

    It's a day night test in Ahmedabad, and I'd wait until closer to the start of the test and we have an accurate weather forecast, it can get quite foggy and misty in that part of the world after it goes dark.

    We could lose large chunks of play there.
    Ooh, that’s interesting. How foggy does it have to be, to go off for bad light under the floods?
    Not that foggy, it becomes a safety issue for the players.

    Remember what it is like driving in car at night with the headlights on.

    Then imagine Archer, Wood, and Stone bowling at you.
    Indeed, it’s been foggy here the past few days, everyone forgets how to drive!

    I guess the issue would be if fielders can’t see a ball hit up in the air.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241

    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    I am rendered speechless by your post!

    Anyway, I thought the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine was developed by a Turkish couple in Germany. Although I suspect they speak very good English.
    Was truly flabbergasted.

    Read that as @Mexicanpete having made the first one :smile:
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725

    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    That post reminded me of Jonathan Aitken's quote.

    If you asked her (Margaret Thatcher) about Sinai, she would probably think it was the plural for sinus.
    Its the sort of arrogance that got him in trouble...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Can the NHS vaccinate quickly enough to protect the nation from the loons that have far too much of the PM's ear in the CRG ?
  • On the timetable: why not publicise the numbers they're looking for at each stage instead of a date?

    Case numbers no higher than X while hospital numbers are no higher than Y and ICU numbers no higher than Z with vaccination down to Group whatever completed (and ALL four must be met) mean that we'll try [insert single relaxation; eg schools back] and watch how R changes for two weeks before [insert next step with same metrics].

    The error of giving specific dates and then finding out that the virus doesn't care about published timetables wouldn't be repeated.

    I agree. Catchy slogan: the timetable for easing restrictions will be set by the data, not by the date.
    Perhaps but you need a few weeks notice to change things too, so you need to determine based upon the data in advance, not the data on the day of the change. Plus its good to have a few weeks gap between relaxations so you can measure changes and abort a later change if there's an issue.

    If it were up to me, looking at existing data and subject to data remaining good, I would go with.

    8 March: Schools reopen.
    29 March: Non-essential shops and outdoor-only hospitality reopen.
    To be determined: Reopen indoor hospitality.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited February 2021
    Also in F1 - Red Bull have signed an agreement to make their own engines based on Honda's for 2022 to 2025.

    The engine standstill from 2022 to 2025 makes it possible.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    On the timetable: why not publicise the numbers they're looking for at each stage instead of a date?

    Case numbers no higher than X while hospital numbers are no higher than Y and ICU numbers no higher than Z with vaccination down to Group whatever completed (and ALL four must be met) mean that we'll try [insert single relaxation; eg schools back] and watch how R changes for two weeks before [insert next step with same metrics].

    The error of giving specific dates and then finding out that the virus doesn't care about published timetables wouldn't be repeated.

    Agreed on the principle, although I think the measures required are expected hospital and ICU admissions, based on daily cases and previously observed rates of hospital and ICU admissions per case. Being based on cases, they'd have less lag than actual admissions.

    Vaccinations ultimately feed into that, so no need to make it a separate requirement. If supplies suddenly fell off a cliff but cases were still going the right way based on the effects of previous vaccinations, that shouldn't stop the next step.

    Also, I think the gap between steps needs to be three weeks to get a decent picture of the effect of any changes and have time to make and implement decisions based on it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241
    edited February 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    Despite being clueless abut cricket I have won bets on both tests following tips by @Peter_the_Punter

    Many thanks. Any tips for third test?
    Lay the draw.
    Actually, hang fire on that.

    It's a day night test in Ahmedabad, and I'd wait until closer to the start of the test and we have an accurate weather forecast, it can get quite foggy and misty in that part of the world after it goes dark.

    We could lose large chunks of play there.
    Ooh, that’s interesting. How foggy does it have to be, to go off for bad light under the floods?
    Not that foggy, it becomes a safety issue for the players.

    Remember what it is like driving in car at night with the headlights on.

    Then imagine Archer, Wood, and Stone bowling at you.
    Indeed, it’s been foggy here the past few days, everyone forgets how to drive!

    I guess the issue would be if fielders can’t see a ball hit up in the air.
    That too, but ever since the death of Phil Hughes, the ICC have been pretty strict on the batsman's safety.
  • 9 down.

    Ashwin on 82 deserves a century but will he run out of partners?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    MattW said:

    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    I am rendered speechless by your post!

    Anyway, I thought the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine was developed by a Turkish couple in Germany. Although I suspect they speak very good English.
    Was truly flabbergasted.

    Read that as @Mexicanpete having made the first one :smile:
    You've lost me.

    Excellent first header by the way yesterday.

    If you are suggesting I invented the first vaccine, it would dispel the English speaking theory-I'm from Birmingham! Anyway everyone knows A.B.D. Johnson invented all the vaccines
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    This is not Christmas.

    In Christmas we didn't have the vaccine in deployment and we also reopened the lockdown after just four weeks. Its already been in place longer than that. Our prevalence now is already lower than it was when came out of lockdown in the autumn - heck it might even be lower than when we went into lockdown then.

    Plus on top of the lower prevalence now we have tens of millions vaccinated. Finally there's also another six weeks to go for the vaccine deployment and lockdown to last before Easter - that's a long time when we're deploying millions of vaccines a week and R is well below 1.

    There is no reason to fail, it just means working hard at it. Its doable.
    By Easter we could have 25m+ who have had 3 weeks plus since their first jab. Most everybody over 50. Maybe another 10m under 50 at various stages of the vaccine kicking in. Numbers of cases should have fallen off a cliff if the vaccines truly work as well as Israel suggest. They are already headed that way.

    But we could be seeing the endgame for Covid in this country.
    I think those numbers are actually pessimistic.

    We are at 15 million plus. Easter is 7 weeks off. 4 weeks at 3 million a week is 12 million.

    I would go for setting another stretch target for groups 1-9 to nearly wrap it up, and starting to roll in others in the couple of weeks before Easter as the dribs and drabs are caught, or tactically before that. With some prioritisation for "frontline" type people in unlocking - teachers, shopworkers, transport drivers etc.

    I'm still firmly of a cautious view on unlocking, however. And it all continues to be tactical.
    Im sure this will be a record week for vaccinations, I know so many people who have their appointment this week
  • Petroboor Clarkson hoists his flag in the 'select the bits of history that make you feel good' culture war.

    https://twitter.com/DavidOlusoga/status/1360995939654246401?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Watching Kohli and Ashwin bat, not much wrong with the pitch tbh

    I'm enjoying this. Makes Aggers look rather daft for his comments about it being like a beach.

    It reminds me of Dan Maskell who used to defend the grass surface at Wimbledon by saying that the true greats can win anywhere in the world playing on any surface.

    This is fabulous cricket, just a shock to those of us used to Headingly.
    If you haven’t yet done so, read carefully what angers said. The point is this pitch started in poor condition on day one, giving a large advantage to the side winning the toss. Too large. India have played well to make full use of that. Quite simply balls should not turn a# far as the one that dismissed Kohli on day one did - on the first day. Not a problem if it does so on day 4 or 5. The 5 day game should see pitch deterioration. It shouldn’t see an artificially poor pitch on day 1.
    It’s a poor pitch, but gave similar chances to both teams. India seized theirs.
    Toss too important. The suggestion that the away side chooses would end pitches being prepared like this (and for balance, green tops in may in England)
    No doubt it gives the team winning the toss a large advantage, and I don't disagree with that suggestion.
    I nonetheless think the advantage a bit exaggerated.

    And in a sense, these sorts of pitches are close to the original roots of the game, when many of the classic tests were played on absolute shockers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    edited February 2021

    Petroboor Clarkson hoists his flag in the 'select the bits of history that make you feel good' culture war.

    https://twitter.com/DavidOlusoga/status/1360995939654246401?s=20

    Off topic, but true.

    Don't forget that his family had form when it came to acts of kindness towards destitute migrants. His mother took Peruvian immigrant Paddington Bear, and clothed him.
  • Mr. Sandpit, backmarkers will take the risk, which may present betting opportunities.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533



    As the vaccine rollout continues R should continue to be pressured down by the vaccine, instead of by restrictions. That is the endgame. Prevalence low enough and R lowered by vaccine and lockdowns will be history.

    I hope you're right, and logically it seems quite likely. But do you have non-anecdotal evidence that people are becoming less scared and taking more chances? My anecdotal impression is that people are becoming *more* cautious, on the basis that freedom is coming and it'd be idiotic to take risks now, like dying in a heroic charge on the last day of WW1. There was always a minority who took chances anyway, but is it growing?
  • Good morning

    Just a post to say I have not been entering the debates on here for a few days due to family health issues and other pressing matters but I have not been banned ( as far as I am aware) and do catch up the banter, but to be honest I do not have a lot of bandwidth at present

    Hello Big G. Hope that these issues are resolved soon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    edited February 2021

    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    I am rendered speechless by your post!

    Anyway, I thought the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine was developed by a Turkish couple in Germany. Although I suspect they speak very good English.
    And Moderna founded by a guy of Armenian parents, born in Beirut.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noubar_Afeyan

    He sold a previous company to Perkin Elmer for $400m, and was the guy who persuaded them to get into making machines for what became the human genome sequencing project.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    Off topic, but true.

    Don't forget that his family had form when it came to acts of kindness towards destitute migrants. His mother took Peruvian immigrant Paddington Bear, and clothed him.

    And was then pursued for copyright infringement IIRC.

    No good deed...
  • On the timetable: why not publicise the numbers they're looking for at each stage instead of a date?

    Case numbers no higher than X while hospital numbers are no higher than Y and ICU numbers no higher than Z with vaccination down to Group whatever completed (and ALL four must be met) mean that we'll try [insert single relaxation; eg schools back] and watch how R changes for two weeks before [insert next step with same metrics].

    The error of giving specific dates and then finding out that the virus doesn't care about published timetables wouldn't be repeated.

    I agree. Catchy slogan: the timetable for easing restrictions will be set by the data, not by the date.
    Perhaps but you need a few weeks notice to change things too, so you need to determine based upon the data in advance, not the data on the day of the change. Plus its good to have a few weeks gap between relaxations so you can measure changes and abort a later change if there's an issue.

    If it were up to me, looking at existing data and subject to data remaining good, I would go with.

    8 March: Schools reopen.
    29 March: Non-essential shops and outdoor-only hospitality reopen.
    To be determined: Reopen indoor hospitality.
    Indoor hospitality 26 April. Ready for the May bank holidays 👍
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited February 2021

    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    That post reminded me of Jonathan Aitken's quote.

    If you asked her (Margaret Thatcher) about Sinai, she would probably think it was the plural for sinus.
    The histiography is full of snobbish claims from both left and right that Margaret was some kind of philistine.

    But it doesn’t seem to square with what we read about her directly. Obviously she did not spout inappropriate Latin tags off the cuff, but she seemed well versed in history, science, and personally interested in political philosophy.

    One couldn’t say the same of the Johnson, May or Cameron.
  • Thoroughly deserved century for Ashwin. Very impressive batting.

    India deserve the victory for this Test.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Ashwin's been a class above this match.
  • On the timetable: why not publicise the numbers they're looking for at each stage instead of a date?

    Case numbers no higher than X while hospital numbers are no higher than Y and ICU numbers no higher than Z with vaccination down to Group whatever completed (and ALL four must be met) mean that we'll try [insert single relaxation; eg schools back] and watch how R changes for two weeks before [insert next step with same metrics].

    The error of giving specific dates and then finding out that the virus doesn't care about published timetables wouldn't be repeated.

    I agree. Catchy slogan: the timetable for easing restrictions will be set by the data, not by the date.
    Perhaps but you need a few weeks notice to change things too, so you need to determine based upon the data in advance, not the data on the day of the change. Plus its good to have a few weeks gap between relaxations so you can measure changes and abort a later change if there's an issue.

    If it were up to me, looking at existing data and subject to data remaining good, I would go with.

    8 March: Schools reopen.
    29 March: Non-essential shops and outdoor-only hospitality reopen.
    To be determined: Reopen indoor hospitality.
    Indoor hospitality 26 April. Ready for the May bank holidays 👍
    If the data doesn't permit the 19th. 👍🏻
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    1. This test match pitch is completely unsuitable for a 5-day game.

    2. India were lucky to score 329 in the first innings; England's 134 showed how poor the pitch was.

    3. Oh, India's best bowler has just scored a century in the third innings, batting at No.8.
  • What a six from the number 11. They're just having fun now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    Hmm, England whining about the pitch seems to have gone unnoticed by the Indian batsmen.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,314
    Stocky said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Excellent article below on why the government used a separate law to allow the suspension of liberties rather than using Civil Contingencies Act.

    Note that the invocation must be temporary and has to be voted through by Parliament every six months. I think (though I`m not sure) that the current six month period expires 30 March.

    The legality of lockdown measures will I`m sure be scrutinised by the Covid Recovery Group and others over the next few weeks.

    www.lawgazette.co.uk/legal-updates/why-did-government-not-use-the-civil-contingencies-act/5103742.article
    Ahem ....... PB ahead of the game - see paras 7 & 8 in this from last October: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/10/hollow-men-the-sidelining-of-parliament-during-the-biggest-health-economic-crisis-in-modern-times/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    I am rendered speechless by your post!

    Anyway, I thought the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine was developed by a Turkish couple in Germany. Although I suspect they speak very good English.
    And Moderna founded by a guy of Armenian parents, born in Beirut.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noubar_Afeyan

    He sold a previous company to Perkin Elmer for $400m, and was the guy who persuaded them to get into making machines for what became the human genome sequencing project.
    I think the allusion was Boris Johnson developed the vaccine and saved the world - although because of Johnson's regular butchery of the English language, maybe not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,696
    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
    What are the solutions to the issues raised?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    Nigelb said:

    Fascinating and previously untold story of the bipartisan ‘stop the steal’ campaign, which started much earlier and was considerably more organised than I’d previously understood.

    The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election
    https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

    The democracy deep state ?

    There's a generous reading of that article, and then there's one that sees paragraphs such as

    "They got states to change voting systems and laws and helped secure hundreds of millions in public and private funding. They fended off voter-suppression lawsuits, recruited armies of poll workers and got millions of people to vote by mail for the first time."

    and

    "a well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information. They were not rigging the election; they were fortifying it."

    and some of that absolutely fails the most basic sniff tests.
    Quite. It's a deeply concerning article, and even more so that the culprits seem prepared to boast about it in a magazine. America is an utter mess.
  • MaxPB said:

    Hmm, England whining about the pitch seems to have gone unnoticed by the Indian batsmen.

    A couple of batsmen.

    Besides Kohli and Ashwin the rest rather played into the narrative.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Oh the 2 doses argument.

    Sorry but 60% protection (with 90%+ protection from serious illness) for all the population trumps 90% protection for 50% of the population.

    The EU is clutching at straws here and the Guardian is doing its self no favours reporting such rubbish.
  • Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Learn nothing.
    Forget nothing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    England could probably have 3 more innings here and they wouldn't get these runs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Surprisingly crap piece by M Quatremer.
    He’s usually candid and clear-eyed.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, England whining about the pitch seems to have gone unnoticed by the Indian batsmen.

    A couple of batsmen.

    Besides Kohli and Ashwin the rest rather played into the narrative.
    Sharma, Rahane and Pant in the first innings as well?
  • Wow a five but a dead ball. In coming up to two decades of watching cricket I don't think I've ever seen a five before. Almost a shame that was a dead ball.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
    What are the solutions to the issues raised?
    Politically, a commitment to get rid of the Brexit red tape resulting from Boris’s shoddy deal.

    Practically, an intent to negotiate back into the EEA.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    Schools are not urgent, since they will be taking the first three weeks in April off anyway. There is no great merit, aside from one day's headlines, in opening the (or some) schools a week or three before they close again for the Easter holidays.

    On the question of parents, it might be that the JCVI can take another look. Round here, my impression is it is more likely to be grandparents taking younger children to school and collecting them, and therefore hanging round the school gates, and most will have been covered by the end of April. Of course, children will spend evenings with their parents.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, England whining about the pitch seems to have gone unnoticed by the Indian batsmen.

    A couple of batsmen.

    Besides Kohli and Ashwin the rest rather played into the narrative.
    Rohit and Pant in the first innings as well. It does look like a tricky pitch and I wouldn't want to play on it against Indian spin either. I'm not an international cricketer though. The failure has come from not picking an extra spinner and our batsmen still not knowing how to pay against spin very well.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,448
    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Is the Covid Recovery group the funky new name for the European Research Group?
    Their "demand" that people who've had the vaccine should be free to do anything seems to ignore the fact that they are still capable of carrying the virus and infecting other people.
    While this is possible, its also extremely likely that vaccination massively reduces the amount of viral shedding someone can do. Just because we don't have that data just yet, I for one will be astonished if the vaccines that are so effective at preventing illness, don't also stop the spread. It would be against everything I know of how disease works.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221

    Nigelb said:

    Fascinating and previously untold story of the bipartisan ‘stop the steal’ campaign, which started much earlier and was considerably more organised than I’d previously understood.

    The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election
    https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

    The democracy deep state ?

    There's a generous reading of that article, and then there's one that sees paragraphs such as

    "They got states to change voting systems and laws and helped secure hundreds of millions in public and private funding. They fended off voter-suppression lawsuits, recruited armies of poll workers and got millions of people to vote by mail for the first time."

    and

    "a well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information. They were not rigging the election; they were fortifying it."

    and some of that absolutely fails the most basic sniff tests.
    Quite. It's a deeply concerning article, and even more so that the culprits seem prepared to boast about it in a magazine. America is an utter mess.
    Which things in particular do you find disturbing ?
  • MaxPB said:

    Hmm, England whining about the pitch seems to have gone unnoticed by the Indian batsmen.

    A couple of batsmen.

    Besides Kohli and Ashwin the rest rather played into the narrative.
    Sharma, Rahane and Pant in the first innings as well?
    The point being made was that the pitch was battable on day 1 but it gave a ridiculous advantage to whoever won the toss. So they don't count.

    Ashwin's innings especially has been very impressive and there can be no moaning now about the pitch from England.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Bear in mind, too, that the EU had no experience in public health before the start of the Covid crisis. With only an embryonic union for health policy in place, the 27 member states had to improvise. This was essential to avoid a repeat of the deadly free-for-all that we saw last March on masks and medical equipment, as member states tried to outbid each other, Germany and France blocked consignments of PPE leaving their territories, and Italy was left to beg for help.

    I think I'd have preferred a free for all on vaccines to be honest.
  • Petroboor Clarkson hoists his flag in the 'select the bits of history that make you feel good' culture war.

    https://twitter.com/DavidOlusoga/status/1360995939654246401?s=20

    Off topic, but true.

    Don't forget that his family had form when it came to acts of kindness towards destitute migrants. His mother took Peruvian immigrant Paddington Bear, and clothed him.
    If wee Paddington contradicts himself on twitter every 5 minutes and bleats plaintively about the Anglosphere, perhaps like his fellow Peruvian he too can be elevated to the House of Lords.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
    What are the solutions to the issues raised?
    Politically, a commitment to get rid of the Brexit red tape resulting from Boris’s shoddy deal.

    Practically, an intent to negotiate back into the EEA.
    Which requires freedom of movement?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    tlg86 said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Bear in mind, too, that the EU had no experience in public health before the start of the Covid crisis. With only an embryonic union for health policy in place, the 27 member states had to improvise. This was essential to avoid a repeat of the deadly free-for-all that we saw last March on masks and medical equipment, as member states tried to outbid each other, Germany and France blocked consignments of PPE leaving their territories, and Italy was left to beg for help.

    I think I'd have preferred a free for all on vaccines to be honest.
    Nah, what the EU should have done is become a partner to the four other fast moving nations representing the interests of the other 20 or so that weren't able to negotiate directly with pharma companies easily in the way that Germany or Italy could.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    Schools are not urgent, since they will be taking the first three weeks in April off anyway. There is no great merit, aside from one day's headlines, in opening the (or some) schools a week or three before they close again for the Easter holidays.

    On the question of parents, it might be that the JCVI can take another look. Round here, my impression is it is more likely to be grandparents taking younger children to school and collecting them, and therefore hanging round the school gates, and most will have been covered by the end of April. Of course, children will spend evenings with their parents.
    I disagree.

    The three weeks back at school may not seem much to you but for the sake of the children its a lot. For their mental health and development even just getting three weeks back with their friends and teacher before the Easter break is massive.

    Four months off between December and April, then the long summer holiday to come too is too long if it can be avoided.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,448

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Delusion
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    MaxPB said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    I read that earlier today. It's got to be the most lolworthy article on it in a while.

    There's just so much bitterness at the UK doing something better than the EU. I think the realisation that not only is the EU far from perfect, it now faces a local competitor that can't easily be written off or ignored is very tough for some in the EU and its more ardent supporters.

    On of my European colleagues who works the EU side of things said he expects that the UK-EU trade deal will face a lot of opposition in the EU parliament when it comes to the floor and there is now genuine fear in the commission that it will get voted down by a narrow margin meaning the EU will have to ask the UK to open it back up for concessions but the UK government considers it a done deal so will flatly refuse.
    The EU Parliament voting down the Brexit deal would surely mean the Commission would have to resign en masse? Maybe their vaccine failure will find a proxy outlet there.

    Fascinating.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    329 and 286 for India, not much difference really. England should have either got 307 or bowled India out in both innings far more cheaply.
  • MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Bear in mind, too, that the EU had no experience in public health before the start of the Covid crisis. With only an embryonic union for health policy in place, the 27 member states had to improvise. This was essential to avoid a repeat of the deadly free-for-all that we saw last March on masks and medical equipment, as member states tried to outbid each other, Germany and France blocked consignments of PPE leaving their territories, and Italy was left to beg for help.

    I think I'd have preferred a free for all on vaccines to be honest.
    Nah, what the EU should have done is become a partner to the four other fast moving nations representing the interests of the other 20 or so that weren't able to negotiate directly with pharma companies easily in the way that Germany or Italy could.
    Though its ridiculous to claim that small nations can't negotiate with pharma companies when even Malta have managed to do so which is why they're ahead of every other EU nation.

    Israel, UAE, Bahrain . . . lots of small countries have managed negotiations just fine. The attitude that "big = better" is what is so broken in Europe. It corrupts everything.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,361

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    They tried various messaging stratergies over the past few weeks - looks like the EU line is that it is completed vaccinations that count is the pitch for this month.

    As others have observed, that line of argument will have to be changed again, quite shortly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
    What are the solutions to the issues raised?
    Politically, a commitment to get rid of the Brexit red tape resulting from Boris’s shoddy deal.

    Practically, an intent to negotiate back into the EEA.
    That's the dream scenario for Boris, if Starmer proposes to reopen the UK-EU relationship. It confirms every single fear of ex-red wall voters hat Starmer is simply covering up his true love of the EU and once in power he will agitate to rejoin or tie the UK back to the EU. Boris wins a 100-120 seat majority.
  • UK and USA riding in to save the world again.

    Maybe we should spend a bit less time attacking ourselves, and acknowledge that - for all our faults - our nations are shining beacons for humanity?

    A shining city on a hill?
  • Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    That post reminded me of Jonathan Aitken's quote.

    If you asked her (Margaret Thatcher) about Sinai, she would probably think it was the plural for sinus.
    The histiography is full of snobbish claims from both left and right that Margaret was some kind of philistine.

    But it doesn’t seem to square with what we read about her directly. Obviously she did not spout inappropriate Latin tags off the cuff, but she seemed well versed in history, science, and personally interested in political philosophy.

    One couldn’t say the same of the Johnson, May or Cameron.
    She was the first major Western leader to take climate change seriously, because she understood the science.

    Scientists and researchers at the time were amazed. They'd never seen anything like it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    eek said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Oh the 2 doses argument.

    Sorry but 60% protection (with 90%+ protection from serious illness) for all the population trumps 90% protection for 50% of the population.

    The EU is clutching at straws here and the Guardian is doing its self no favours reporting such rubbish.
    All the "it's only a first dose" naysayers seem to ignore that we have 15m people who only need one more dose to be fully vaccinated.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited February 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    I read that earlier today. It's got to be the most lolworthy article on it in a while.

    There's just so much bitterness at the UK doing something better than the EU. I think the realisation that not only is the EU far from perfect, it now faces a local competitor that can't easily be written off or ignored is very tough for some in the EU and its more ardent supporters.

    On of my European colleagues who works the EU side of things said he expects that the UK-EU trade deal will face a lot of opposition in the EU parliament when it comes to the floor and there is now genuine fear in the commission that it will get voted down by a narrow margin meaning the EU will have to ask the UK to open it back up for concessions but the UK government considers it a done deal so will flatly refuse.
    For those interested in the competitive side of the Covid crisis the only question to ask is how many deaths per million have each EU country suffered at the close of play. Say July.

    All the rest is just the jingoistic chanting of the 'Barmy Army'
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,361
    On the subject of vaccinations - what theme should we have for the 2pm-Monday-Vaccination-Numbers-Are-Down panic?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    edited February 2021
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    I read that earlier today. It's got to be the most lolworthy article on it in a while.

    There's just so much bitterness at the UK doing something better than the EU. I think the realisation that not only is the EU far from perfect, it now faces a local competitor that can't easily be written off or ignored is very tough for some in the EU and its more ardent supporters.

    On of my European colleagues who works the EU side of things said he expects that the UK-EU trade deal will face a lot of opposition in the EU parliament when it comes to the floor and there is now genuine fear in the commission that it will get voted down by a narrow margin meaning the EU will have to ask the UK to open it back up for concessions but the UK government considers it a done deal so will flatly refuse.
    For those interested in the competitive side of the Covid crisis the only question to ask is how many deaths per million have each EU country suffered at the close of play. Say July.
    July won't be the close of play though. It's going to be October or November and the true statistics won't be known until 2022 when all of the excess deaths analysis is done. Basing it on self-certified statistics is a pointless exercise as every country measures it differently.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Peak Remoan?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The vaccination project - after the hiccup with the South African scare - continues to inspire confidence. My main concerns now are (a) importation of mutant super Plague and (b) that the Government's previous impetuousness will now swing so far in the other direction that we lose the whole Summer whilst ministers fret over the numbers. The thought that lockdown may simply be replaced by lockdown-plus-schools and continue for another four or five months is very depressing.

    Not a chance on earth the lockdown will stay through the summer with the hospital's empty.

    Easter is surely the target. Squish the prevalence of the bug now, big release for Easter.
    The worst possible thing to do, is commit to arbitrary dates in a calendar for anything. More important is to make sure the damn thing is properly squashed, and the restrictions won’t need to be re-introduced again on a national scale.
    I didn't say commit, I said target, there's a critical difference.

    Dates do matter. Not all days are created equal. Our hospitality industry is on life support at the minute and Easter through to August is the cash cow that sector depends upon.

    Losing January is no big deal to be frank. Losing February it's a shame about Valentine's Day but not that important either. Spring and summer though they matter.

    If I were the Chancellor I would be saying to the PM and Health Secretary "is there a set of restrictions tough enough we can implement now, in order to do a major relaxation of restrictions in time for Easter". Squish it hard now, aiming to reopen for Easter. No halfarsed fannying around in purgatory still incapable to relax for Easter because we haven't done the job now.
    Trying to work to a calendar over Christmas, caused the restrictions we have now to be longer lasting than would otherwise have been the case.

    The first priority needs to be to get the schools open. Then, after some time to see the reaction, we can look at hospitality.

    Opening things before the virus is under control, and remember the vast majority of parents of school-age children have jet to be vaccinated, will simply blow it up again and put restrictions back in place through the summer - which is the really important time for the hospitality sector.

    Trying to put dates on things is just a bunch of backbenchers making noises. All it does politically is sets the government up to fail.
    Schools are not urgent, since they will be taking the first three weeks in April off anyway. There is no great merit, aside from one day's headlines, in opening the (or some) schools a week or three before they close again for the Easter holidays.

    On the question of parents, it might be that the JCVI can take another look. Round here, my impression is it is more likely to be grandparents taking younger children to school and collecting them, and therefore hanging round the school gates, and most will have been covered by the end of April. Of course, children will spend evenings with their parents.
    I disagree.

    The three weeks back at school may not seem much to you but for the sake of the children its a lot. For their mental health and development even just getting three weeks back with their friends and teacher before the Easter break is massive.

    Four months off between December and April, then the long summer holiday to come too is too long if it can be avoided.
    I couldn`t agree more. From first hand experience, my children are suffering much more now than at any time during this pandemic. It`s the loss of social contact more than anything.
  • Petroboor Clarkson hoists his flag in the 'select the bits of history that make you feel good' culture war.

    https://twitter.com/DavidOlusoga/status/1360995939654246401?s=20

    Oh dear another bit of Nat hypocrisy. The tendency to 'select the bits of history that make you feel good' is exactly what Scottish Nationalists do with regularity. Actually, strike "Scottish" and just leave it at "nationalists". Nationalism of all stripes selects the history it likes and burns the bits that don't fit the narrative. English nationalism, Russian nationalism, Scottish nationalism, Trumpism. Nasty rotten peas in the same pod.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,361
    edited February 2021
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    I read that earlier today. It's got to be the most lolworthy article on it in a while.

    There's just so much bitterness at the UK doing something better than the EU. I think the realisation that not only is the EU far from perfect, it now faces a local competitor that can't easily be written off or ignored is very tough for some in the EU and its more ardent supporters.

    On of my European colleagues who works the EU side of things said he expects that the UK-EU trade deal will face a lot of opposition in the EU parliament when it comes to the floor and there is now genuine fear in the commission that it will get voted down by a narrow margin meaning the EU will have to ask the UK to open it back up for concessions but the UK government considers it a done deal so will flatly refuse.
    For those interested in the competitive side of the Covid crisis the only question to ask is how many deaths per million have each EU country suffered at the close of play. Say July.
    People will be dying of COVID, in Europe, well into next year. Long COVID, for a start.

    They will be dying here as well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    Bear in mind, too, that the EU had no experience in public health before the start of the Covid crisis. With only an embryonic union for health policy in place, the 27 member states had to improvise. This was essential to avoid a repeat of the deadly free-for-all that we saw last March on masks and medical equipment, as member states tried to outbid each other, Germany and France blocked consignments of PPE leaving their territories, and Italy was left to beg for help.

    I think I'd have preferred a free for all on vaccines to be honest.
    Nah, what the EU should have done is become a partner to the four other fast moving nations representing the interests of the other 20 or so that weren't able to negotiate directly with pharma companies easily in the way that Germany or Italy could.
    Though its ridiculous to claim that small nations can't negotiate with pharma companies when even Malta have managed to do so which is why they're ahead of every other EU nation.

    Israel, UAE, Bahrain . . . lots of small countries have managed negotiations just fine. The attitude that "big = better" is what is so broken in Europe. It corrupts everything.
    Two groups have done well in the vaccination race.

    1. Large countries willing to invest billions in the problem, including manufacturing, approval, liability and taking an early risk on individual vaccines.
    See UK, USA, China etc.

    2. Small but rich countries, willing to throw money at the problem but not requiring a lot in return.
    See Israel, UAE, Bahain, Seychelles etc.

    Failures have been those who treated it as just another transaction to arrange.
    See EU, Japan, Canada, Australia etc.
  • Petroboor Clarkson hoists his flag in the 'select the bits of history that make you feel good' culture war.

    https://twitter.com/DavidOlusoga/status/1360995939654246401?s=20

    Oh dear another bit of Nat hypocrisy. The tendency to 'select the bits of history that make you feel good' is exactly what Scottish Nationalists do with regularity. Actually, strike "Scottish" and just leave it at "nationalists". Nationalism of all stripes selects the history it likes and burns the bits that don't fit the narrative. English nationalism, Russian nationalism, Scottish nationalism, Trumpism. Nasty rotten peas in the same pod.
    You're just a hypocrite.

    Everyone believes in a nation somewhere. You just believe it should be on a European level. You're no better than an English or Scottish nationalist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    On the subject of vaccinations - what theme should we have for the 2pm-Monday-Vaccination-Numbers-Are-Down panic?

    England batting seems the obvious analogy de jour. So maybe the TMS theme tune?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
    What are the solutions to the issues raised?
    Politically, a commitment to get rid of the Brexit red tape resulting from Boris’s shoddy deal.

    Practically, an intent to negotiate back into the EEA.
    Which requires freedom of movement?
    Yep. Swiss-style.
  • Q: which proposition holds more water, the SNP being to blame for Scots thinking BJ is a dick, or the Chennai pitch is to blame for England being a bit crap?

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1361216156766453762?s=21

    Is Alexander not a common Scottish name then? I thought there were a few kings of that name?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
    What are the solutions to the issues raised?
    Politically, a commitment to get rid of the Brexit red tape resulting from Boris’s shoddy deal.

    Practically, an intent to negotiate back into the EEA.
    Which requires freedom of movement?
    Yep. Swiss-style.
    Switzerland isn't in the EEA.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited February 2021
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Apparently the UK's success on vaccines is an "illusion", we had to "kowtow to big pharma" and the EU had it all in hand "very early on".
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1361245080309358592

    I read that earlier today. It's got to be the most lolworthy article on it in a while.

    There's just so much bitterness at the UK doing something better than the EU. I think the realisation that not only is the EU far from perfect, it now faces a local competitor that can't easily be written off or ignored is very tough for some in the EU and its more ardent supporters.

    On of my European colleagues who works the EU side of things said he expects that the UK-EU trade deal will face a lot of opposition in the EU parliament when it comes to the floor and there is now genuine fear in the commission that it will get voted down by a narrow margin meaning the EU will have to ask the UK to open it back up for concessions but the UK government considers it a done deal so will flatly refuse.
    For those interested in the competitive side of the Covid crisis the only question to ask is how many deaths per million have each EU country suffered at the close of play. Say July.

    All the rest is just the jingoistic chanting of the 'Barmy Army'
    No it isn`t.

    For a start there is lack of consistency how deaths are registered as Covid deaths. Also differing densities across nations and different cultural norms and a country`s international importance regarding global links are big factors.

    Away from health, the difference between loss of liberty and economic effect comparisons come into play massively too. It`s not all about deaths, especially in liberal democracies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,361

    Fishing said:

    On topic, Mrs Thatcher once said that (something like) problems tend to come from Eurasia, and solutions from the English-speaking world.

    It seems that will be true once again.

    That post reminded me of Jonathan Aitken's quote.

    If you asked her (Margaret Thatcher) about Sinai, she would probably think it was the plural for sinus.
    The histiography is full of snobbish claims from both left and right that Margaret was some kind of philistine.

    But it doesn’t seem to square with what we read about her directly. Obviously she did not spout inappropriate Latin tags off the cuff, but she seemed well versed in history, science, and personally interested in political philosophy.

    One couldn’t say the same of the Johnson, May or Cameron.
    She was the first major Western leader to take climate change seriously, because she understood the science.

    Scientists and researchers at the time were amazed. They'd never seen anything like it.
    Some of the released Civil Service documents are interesting. The venom and anger her positions, first on the Ozone issue, then Acid rain and finally the CO2 issue....

    It's worth remembering that what she did was to force the entire governmental machine to change course on these issues. And it wasn't happy to move.

    An echo of this can be heard on the attacks on Prince Charles for his environmentalism in the same period.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    Good start from England. Only 476 to go.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    edited February 2021
    The likely new leader of Catalonia following yesterday's Catalan elections prepares to push for another referendum of self-determination, again likely to be rejected by Madrid.

    "We, the pro-independence parties have a majority, we have reached more than 50% of the popular vote. The Catalan people have spoken, the time has come to negotiate a referendum of self-determination. Please get involved."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56065763
  • Q: which proposition holds more water, the SNP being to blame for Scots thinking BJ is a dick, or the Chennai pitch is to blame for England being a bit crap?

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1361216156766453762?s=21

    Is Alexander not a common Scottish name then? I thought there were a few kings of that name?
    I thought Alistair was Scottish translation of Alexander?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Harris: But just as Labour has become estranged from its old working-class heartlands, so the Conservatives’ embrace of a parochial, introverted kind of populism means they can no longer claim to be the party of commerce. That is a seismic change, and it may sooner or later transform our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-damaged-small-businesses-brexit-uk-eu-trading

    For Harris that is quite confused in some respects.

    His export data is a month old. He ascribes VAT-related consequences to Brexit. And he maintains that looking to the wider world rather than the EU is somehow turning inwards.

    All those are are at least qeustionable.
    Actually it’s a very good piece.

    Figures to be published today in the latest Manufacturing Barometer survey of small and medium-sized firms show that two-thirds of such companies have seen negative price changes in their supply chains since leaving the EU. A majority, meanwhile, have seen post-Brexit “complications” with both exporting and importing.

    There’s a potential opportunity for Labour hiding here, though I doubt they’ll find it.
    What are the solutions to the issues raised?
    Politically, a commitment to get rid of the Brexit red tape resulting from Boris’s shoddy deal.

    Practically, an intent to negotiate back into the EEA.
    That's the dream scenario for Boris, if Starmer proposes to reopen the UK-EU relationship. It confirms every single fear of ex-red wall voters hat Starmer is simply covering up his true love of the EU and once in power he will agitate to rejoin or tie the UK back to the EU. Boris wins a 100-120 seat majority.
    Maybe.

    You and I both know however that this is what business want, surely what Treasury and FO want, what many Cabinet Ministers agree is necessary, and indeed was probably the majority position in the country until about 12 months ago.

    Politically it may be difficult.
    But we did not leave the EU to kill off trade with it. The idea was rather to expand our opportunities, remember?
This discussion has been closed.