Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
You will be the importer of the product. Which means you will have to pay import VAT and tariffs (if appropriate), charges for the customs forms etc.
Don't forget that the Department for International Trade have advised UK companies that the solution to selling in the EU is set up a new business there. Same is true for over here - unless a company has imported the product, paid all the fees etc and then sold it to you, its all on you and they will charge you dollar.
Thanks, expected as much.
We do of course need to know what it is you're buying from Potsdam.
Tutima wrist watch, may not be now though
Not one of the Saxon range, one assumes.
No, but because they're the chunky boy style beloved of lower league footballers and tv chefs rather than the name.
At least they're not at the level of ghastliness recently purchased by that taste free zone McGregor.
I really hope the British media can resist the temptation to go full Sunday People and start printing loads of anacedotal stories of oldies who had had AZN vaccine having died, as a way of saying see should be following German approach.
Apols if already published, but this report on real-world Israeli experience with the Pfizer vaccine (ex-Guardian blog) is heartening: Seems thoroughly persuasive.
------- One domestic healthcare provider, Maccabi, said today that out of 163,000 Israeli given both shots of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine, only 31 were infected with the coronavirus. That was compared with nearly 6,450 infections among a control group of unvaccinated people.
Of the vaccinated people who were infected, none were hospitalised and only suffered mild effects, such as headaches. Maccabi said the data suggested the vaccine was 92% effective, close to the 95% that Pfizer claims.
------- On the EU controversy, people are obviously not going to accept diverting vaccinations from high-risk recipients to go to the EU, but I wonder if an offer to share the Pfizer one once we've completed the over-60 range might be more acceptable. Are we really going to insist on vaccinating 30-year-olds as priority over a frail 80-year-old, just because the 30-year-old is British and the 80-year-old is Dutch?
Yes. Vaccinations benefit wider society more than the individual being vaccinated. The more people have the vaccine, the safer everyone is, regardless of how old they are. The vaccine isn't 100% effective, so lockdown only ends once we reach some form of herd immunity.
And no this does not vindicate that german newspaper report unless it repeats the things they did - they were making specific claims about efficacy, not merely that due to various factors it might not be approved for over 65s.
I can already predict who will claim it is vindication.
Which other countries are giving it to their over 65s
Ourselves and maybe Australia.
Anybody else?
India, Pakistan, South Africa, Argentina and Mexico.
About a third of the world's population already in countries using it.
And South Africa, at least, are paying a lot more per dose than the EU (I'm not sure about the others).
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
You will be the importer of the product. Which means you will have to pay import VAT and tariffs (if appropriate), charges for the customs forms etc.
Don't forget that the Department for International Trade have advised UK companies that the solution to selling in the EU is set up a new business there. Same is true for over here - unless a company has imported the product, paid all the fees etc and then sold it to you, its all on you and they will charge you dollar.
Thanks, expected as much.
We do of course need to know what it is you're buying from Potsdam.
Tutima wrist watch, may not be now though
Very nice. I am always amazed when magazines (and not just How to Spend It or Tatler) have articles about watches that routinely cost thousands upon thousands of pounds.
Sky reporting AZ factory in Belgium was raided by Belgium authorities
Full Cartman......
I believe (I might be wrong) this is the same inspection reported yesterday: the Belgians authorities went in to check what was being exported where. That's a long way from a "raid", so this might just be hyperbolic reportage. Which is not unknown
Sky reporting AZ factory in Belgium was raided by Belgium authorities
Full Cartman......
I believe (I might be wrong) this is the same inspection reported yesterday: the Belgians authorities went in to check what was being exported where. That's a long way from a "raid", so this might just be hyperbolic reportage. Which is not unknown
I know the EU have been happy to cosy up to the Chinese....but I didn't know they were going to be copying their approach to managing businesses.
I hate to be a pedant (that’s a lie) but starting with an all time peak of admissions, once you start to see a drop in cases the very nature of these being net numbers means you are almost guaranteed to see a record fall in hospitalised numbers.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
Given the huge drop in cases, I think we can, however, be reassured that this is a genuine easing of pressure on the NHS. Indeed given the massive fall in cases, it would be very weird - and disturbing - if in-patient pressure HADN'T eased up
Sky reporting AZ factory in Belgium was raided by Belgium authorities
Full Cartman......
I believe (I might be wrong) this is the same inspection reported yesterday: the Belgians authorities went in to check what was being exported where. That's a long way from a "raid", so this might just be hyperbolic reportage. Which is not unknown
Poor show by Sky if so. You cant just jazz up your descriptions for excitement value.
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
Don't bother. It's more hassle than it's worth now. The courier companies just make up charges at random. I bought about 100 quid worth of 2CV parts from the Netherlands and paid nearly 250 quid in various imposts on top.
I buy and sell a lot of Porsche parts on eBay and the game is now fraudlent values with the balance made up en noir. Recently bought a 991.2 GT3RS ECU and key set for "80 euros". Lol.
2CV? Does that mean you'll be heading to the country, with a dozen eggs and, erm, a top hat any time soon?
I'm confused. Why does Germany have a vaccine committee? Is this shorthand for the EMA, or does each EU country have to sign off separately?
This is a draft recommendation from the Standing Vaccine Commission at the Robert Koch Institut, the leading German research body. It doesn't force the EMA to follow suit, but it's already been hinted that they are inclined to do so.
We need to be clear that nobody is saying that they have evidence that the AZ vaccine is ineffective for elderly people, merely that the sample size for this age group is so small that it doesn't prove that it is effective. Since the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine is in any case thought from the clinical trial to be lower than the Pfizer vaccine, it does make sense to try to prioritise Pfizer for the most vulnerable groups. Other considerations (freezer storage, organisation) make this complicated, but it's sensible if it can be done.
My impression is that in the UK we're just vaccinating as many as possible with whichever vaccine is to hand? That's understandable, but if we can tweak it to a "Pfizer if possible for the over-60s" policy that would make sense, and nothing to do with vaccine nationalism.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
The EU is not Man United, the UK is not Stockport County. The EU isn't even United. As we see
I didn't mean it literally. Global Britain is no Stockport County. C'mon. It's a Blackburn Rovers at the very least. And it is a mess on the EU side. But you will admit that the europhobe glee - which word I choose carefully - over this does have some of what I'm trying to get over. Pleasure in the misfortune of something to which one has both a superiority and inferiority complex. These 2 things do go together after all.
Apols if already published, but this report on real-world Israeli experience with the Pfizer vaccine (ex-Guardian blog) is heartening: Seems thoroughly persuasive.
------- One domestic healthcare provider, Maccabi, said today that out of 163,000 Israeli given both shots of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine, only 31 were infected with the coronavirus. That was compared with nearly 6,450 infections among a control group of unvaccinated people.
Of the vaccinated people who were infected, none were hospitalised and only suffered mild effects, such as headaches. Maccabi said the data suggested the vaccine was 92% effective, close to the 95% that Pfizer claims.
------- On the EU controversy, people are obviously not going to accept diverting vaccinations from high-risk recipients to go to the EU, but I wonder if an offer to share the Pfizer one once we've completed the over-60 range might be more acceptable. Are we really going to insist on vaccinating 30-year-olds as priority over a frail 80-year-old, just because the 30-year-old is British and the 80-year-old is Dutch?
The EU have TODAY rejected asking the UK to help in mediation of the issue saying it's between them and AZN. I'm afraid the toys are still outside the pram.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
You will be the importer of the product. Which means you will have to pay import VAT and tariffs (if appropriate), charges for the customs forms etc.
Don't forget that the Department for International Trade have advised UK companies that the solution to selling in the EU is set up a new business there. Same is true for over here - unless a company has imported the product, paid all the fees etc and then sold it to you, its all on you and they will charge you dollar.
Thanks, expected as much.
We do of course need to know what it is you're buying from Potsdam.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I don't see a single person here "gleeful" that the EU is troubled.
I see a lot of people acknowledging the EU is troubled, right down to williamglenn calling for UVDL's resignation on the subject. I see other people trying to whatabout or downplay just how serious this is.
The EU aren't just failing to protect their own citizens, they're jeopardising us. The science and technology exists to eradicate this damned nasty bug but because they've chosen to cheap out on it instead its going to remain on our continent and risks mutation and reintroduction into this country.
I don't see a single person happy about that.
You clearly aren't following Nigel Farage's broadcasts....!
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
The EU is not Man United, the UK is not Stockport County. The EU isn't even United. As we see
I didn't mean it literally. Global Britain is no Stockport County. C'mon. It's a Blackburn Rovers at the very least. And it is a mess on the EU side. But you will admit that the europhobe glee - which word I choose carefully - over this does have some of what I'm trying to get over. Pleasure in the misfortune of something to which one has both a superiority and inferiority complex. These 2 things do go together after all.
Go on Twitter and you'll find plenty of EU schadenfreude (see what I did there) over Britain's struggles with the virus. Just as they exulted in the problems of Brexit. This stuff goes both ways.
There is no inferiority complex on either side on this vaccine issue. There is rivalry, panic, and some lingering bitterness over Brexit
I will admit some Leavers have a mental problem, but it is, actually, more of a superiority complex. British exceptionalism. That really is a thing.
It'll be interesting to hear what the UK's vaccine experts have to say about whether or not the AZ jab should be used on the over 65s in response to the German decision.
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
You will be the importer of the product. Which means you will have to pay import VAT and tariffs (if appropriate), charges for the customs forms etc.
Don't forget that the Department for International Trade have advised UK companies that the solution to selling in the EU is set up a new business there. Same is true for over here - unless a company has imported the product, paid all the fees etc and then sold it to you, its all on you and they will charge you dollar.
Thanks, expected as much.
We do of course need to know what it is you're buying from Potsdam.
Tutima wrist watch, may not be now though
I'm a vintage Jaeger-LeCoultre man myself...
I have various options from an Ebel el primero to various Omegas but if I wear a watch nowadays its from Apple.
I'm confused. Why does Germany have a vaccine committee? Is this shorthand for the EMA, or does each EU country have to sign off separately?
This is a draft recommendation from the Standing Vaccine Commission at the Robert Koch Institut, the leading German research body. It doesn't force the EMA to follow suit, but it's already been hinted that they are inclined to do so.
We need to be clear that nobody is saying that they have evidence that the AZ vaccine is ineffective for elderly people, merely that the sample size for this age group is so small that it doesn't prove that it is effective. Since the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine is in any case thought from the clinical trial to be lower than the Pfizer vaccine, it does make sense to try to prioritise Pfizer for the most vulnerable groups. Other considerations (freezer storage, organisation) make this complicated, but it's sensible if it can be done.
My impression is that in the UK we're just vaccinating as many as possible with whichever vaccine is to hand? That's understandable, but if we can tweak it to a "Pfizer if possible for the over-60s" policy that would make sense, and nothing to do with vaccine nationalism.
If only we had some sort of “Chief Medical Officer”, informed by an independent committee on vaccines, to advise ministers here. That way we could make calm, rational decisions away from all the politics, and those of us with no relevant knowledge or experience could defer to them. It would be even better if some of our chief medical advisers and committee member were world leading experts on this subject.
Oh wait... we do have that. We can stand down. Random policy proposals on the internet are not required.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
The EU is not Man United, the UK is not Stockport County. The EU isn't even United. As we see
I didn't mean it literally. Global Britain is no Stockport County. C'mon. It's a Blackburn Rovers at the very least. And it is a mess on the EU side. But you will admit that the europhobe glee - which word I choose carefully - over this does have some of what I'm trying to get over. Pleasure in the misfortune of something to which one has both a superiority and inferiority complex. These 2 things do go together after all.
I am reminded of Churchill's quote, "The Hun is always either at your throat or your feet….”. Perhaps the British stroke of genius is to adapt its German heritage to allow it to do both simultaneously.
Hard to work out who's had a worse week - German politicians or EU ones. If they decide they're unwilling to use AZ for over 65s then it'll set them back months. If they're seriously going to slow the vaccine rollout to a snails pace and offer pensioners no vaccine rather than give them the AZ then they're crazy. They won't be able to get Pfizer all across the continent with ease and have nowhere near enough of Moderna.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract. https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1354717241061871617
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
I don't think it is in doubt that in an ideal world the AZN would now be back doing new trials before any country approved it.
And even Pfizer might have been asked to do some more safety studies, given how new the technology is.
But we aren't in an ideal world.
I actually think that by the time we have got through the UK population, we will probably be going back round again with a new vaccine to fight off all the mutant variants.
Thus the arguments of individual efficacy I think a bit of a red herring. At the moment, it is about driving covid rates right down and especially serious cases, rather than total elimination.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
You will be the importer of the product. Which means you will have to pay import VAT and tariffs (if appropriate), charges for the customs forms etc.
Don't forget that the Department for International Trade have advised UK companies that the solution to selling in the EU is set up a new business there. Same is true for over here - unless a company has imported the product, paid all the fees etc and then sold it to you, its all on you and they will charge you dollar.
Thanks, expected as much.
We do of course need to know what it is you're buying from Potsdam.
Tutima wrist watch, may not be now though
Not one of the Saxon range, one assumes.
No, but because they're the chunky boy style beloved of lower league footballers and tv chefs rather than the name.
At least they're not at the level of ghastliness recently purchased by that taste free zone McGregor.
It'll be interesting to hear what the UK's vaccine experts have to say about whether or not the AZ jab should be used on the over 65s in response to the German decision.
I don't think it is in doubt that in an ideal world the AZN would now be back doing new trials before any country approved it.
And even Pfizer might have been asked to do some more safety studies, given how new the technology is.
But we aren't in an ideal world.
I actually think that by the time we have got through the UK population, we will probably be going back round again with a new vaccine to fight off all the mutant variants.
Thus the arguments of individual efficacy I think a bit of a red herring. At the moment, it is about driving covid rates right down and especially serious cases, rather than total elimination.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract. https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1354717241061871617
Fuckers. Let's leave the EU and take charge of our own affairs.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
I'm confused. Why does Germany have a vaccine committee? Is this shorthand for the EMA, or does each EU country have to sign off separately?
This is a draft recommendation from the Standing Vaccine Commission at the Robert Koch Institut, the leading German research body. It doesn't force the EMA to follow suit, but it's already been hinted that they are inclined to do so.
We need to be clear that nobody is saying that they have evidence that the AZ vaccine is ineffective for elderly people, merely that the sample size for this age group is so small that it doesn't prove that it is effective. Since the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine is in any case thought from the clinical trial to be lower than the Pfizer vaccine, it does make sense to try to prioritise Pfizer for the most vulnerable groups. Other considerations (freezer storage, organisation) make this complicated, but it's sensible if it can be done.
My impression is that in the UK we're just vaccinating as many as possible with whichever vaccine is to hand? That's understandable, but if we can tweak it to a "Pfizer if possible for the over-60s" policy that would make sense, and nothing to do with vaccine nationalism.
Given the state Britain was in six weeks ago, it was the right choice to jab everyone with anything we had. Even if AZ is marginally less effective, especially in oldsters (tho we don't know that yet, and there is mounting evidence that it is good for all ages, from the Lancet report on) it was correct to use it. Also it is cheaper, sold not for profit, and it is much easier to disperse to fridges in GPs, pharmacies, and so on, meaning you can inject a lot more people than if you only use Pfizer, with its storage problems.
And, as Max pointed out yesterday, giving everyone possible a much improved chance of not catching this - with any jab we have - is absolutely correct, as the fewer people infected means less chance of mutation.
And that is now the real enemy of humanity: mutation
We can defintely beat this bastard bug - as long as it does not mutate, yet again, into something even nastier
Hard to work out who's had a worse week - German politicians or EU ones. If they decide they're unwilling to use AZ for over 65s then it'll set them back months. If they're seriously going to slow the vaccine rollout to a snails pace and offer pensioners no vaccine rather than give them the AZ then they're crazy. They won't be able to get Pfizer all across the continent with ease and have nowhere near enough of Moderna.
They are taking a pessimistic interpretation of the admittedly limited data and not approving the use of the vaccine for the very group that could benefit the most. That might be fine if this was any other disease, but right now that will almost certainly result in thousands of avoidable deaths.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract. https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1354717241061871617
If, as seems likely, we do not yield on this point then it’s an interesting and unpredictable first case study for our post Brexit relationship. Not a happy case study, or the one any of us would have hoped for to shape our relationship, but an interesting one.
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
You will be the importer of the product. Which means you will have to pay import VAT and tariffs (if appropriate), charges for the customs forms etc.
Don't forget that the Department for International Trade have advised UK companies that the solution to selling in the EU is set up a new business there. Same is true for over here - unless a company has imported the product, paid all the fees etc and then sold it to you, its all on you and they will charge you dollar.
Thanks, expected as much.
We do of course need to know what it is you're buying from Potsdam.
Thanks, they don't have quite the model I was looking for, plus more expensive (even taking vat etc into account)!
Just what you need on Sauciehall Street to keep up the gallus style.
I fear Sauchiehall Street may err more on the Connor McGregor side of things (though sadly the only style being put on at the moment is post apocalyptic shuffling in the style of the The Road).
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I don't see a single person here "gleeful" that the EU is troubled.
I see a lot of people acknowledging the EU is troubled, right down to williamglenn calling for UVDL's resignation on the subject. I see other people trying to whatabout or downplay just how serious this is.
The EU aren't just failing to protect their own citizens, they're jeopardising us. The science and technology exists to eradicate this damned nasty bug but because they've chosen to cheap out on it instead its going to remain on our continent and risks mutation and reintroduction into this country.
I don't see a single person happy about that.
There is some glee. You can only see it if you're not feeling it.
Quite surprised to find out today several members of my extended family who are in the lower categories of the 1-4 groups have their vaccine appointments for next week.
I genuinely don’t understand the messaging from the EU here. They really want more of the AZ vaccine but they are only just about to approve it, and then not for the high risk groups? Early impressions matter. If they get the message out that this vaccine isn’t safe, the whole work suffers.
It's simply that it is not yet proven to their required level of confidence that this vaccine is sufficiently effective in the over 65s to be worth giving. Different here. We reduced our required confidence levels for approval in the light of our NHS emergency.
I understand the core point, and that’s their choice. It’s the broader comms and the leaking of the suggestion that it’s unsafe which I don’t understand. It benefits nobody.
I haven't seen any leaking that it is unsafe. Only that its efficacy could be as low as 8%.
Hard to work out who's had a worse week - German politicians or EU ones. If they decide they're unwilling to use AZ for over 65s then it'll set them back months. If they're seriously going to slow the vaccine rollout to a snails pace and offer pensioners no vaccine rather than give them the AZ then they're crazy. They won't be able to get Pfizer all across the continent with ease and have nowhere near enough of Moderna.
They are taking a pessimistic interpretation of the admittedly limited data and not approving the use of the vaccine for the very group that could benefit the most. That might be fine if this was any other disease, but right now that will almost certainly result in thousands of avoidable deaths.
Especially when you consider that vaccination programmes haven't started for under 65s in any meaningful sense so it's not as if there is spare capacity created by switching it around. There is still going to be the same supply pressure on the Pfizer vaccine for another 2 or 3 months meaning those people who need to be immunised the most are going to be waiting while under 65s who need it a lot less will start getting their vaccines in a few weeks.
It seems like a huge public health risk and if in two or three weeks the single jab shows the expected 70% immunity from symptoms in the UK I really hope they reverse this decision.
Hard to work out who's had a worse week - German politicians or EU ones. If they decide they're unwilling to use AZ for over 65s then it'll set them back months. If they're seriously going to slow the vaccine rollout to a snails pace and offer pensioners no vaccine rather than give them the AZ then they're crazy. They won't be able to get Pfizer all across the continent with ease and have nowhere near enough of Moderna.
They are taking a pessimistic interpretation of the admittedly limited data and not approving the use of the vaccine for the very group that could benefit the most. That might be fine if this was any other disease, but right now that will almost certainly result in thousands of avoidable deaths.
Totally agree, this is a sprint not a marathon. This decision would render AZ pretty much useless to the EU until late Spring unless they're going to use their resources to simultaneously vaccinate the over and under 65s.
It just makes the EU's aggression towards AZ's supply lines baffling if the EMA back the decision of the German regulator.
Surely the best way to troll the EU is to offer all of the European Commissioners priority AZ vaccines administered here in the UK as part of our effort to recognise their importance in strong bilateral relations?
Surely the best way to troll the EU is to offer all of the European Commissioners priority AZ vaccines administered here in the UK as part of our effort to recognise their importance in strong bilateral relations?
I genuinely don’t understand the messaging from the EU here. They really want more of the AZ vaccine but they are only just about to approve it, and then not for the high risk groups? Early impressions matter. If they get the message out that this vaccine isn’t safe, the whole work suffers.
It's simply that it is not yet proven to their required level of confidence that this vaccine is sufficiently effective in the over 65s to be worth giving. Different here. We reduced our required confidence levels for approval in the light of our NHS emergency.
I understand the core point, and that’s their choice. It’s the broader comms and the leaking of the suggestion that it’s unsafe which I don’t understand. It benefits nobody.
I haven't seen any leaking that it is unsafe. Only that its efficacy could be as low as 8%.
Most people will probably hear something like that as meaning unsafe, even when under that worst case it's still technically better than nothing. But if its insufficient data behind decision leaking that it is proven low efficacy is reckless.
I'm confused. Why does Germany have a vaccine committee? Is this shorthand for the EMA, or does each EU country have to sign off separately?
This is a draft recommendation from the Standing Vaccine Commission at the Robert Koch Institut, the leading German research body. It doesn't force the EMA to follow suit, but it's already been hinted that they are inclined to do so.
We need to be clear that nobody is saying that they have evidence that the AZ vaccine is ineffective for elderly people, merely that the sample size for this age group is so small that it doesn't prove that it is effective. Since the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine is in any case thought from the clinical trial to be lower than the Pfizer vaccine, it does make sense to try to prioritise Pfizer for the most vulnerable groups. Other considerations (freezer storage, organisation) make this complicated, but it's sensible if it can be done.
My impression is that in the UK we're just vaccinating as many as possible with whichever vaccine is to hand? That's understandable, but if we can tweak it to a "Pfizer if possible for the over-60s" policy that would make sense, and nothing to do with vaccine nationalism.
Thank you. I thought the over 65s cohort was large enough (albeit still smaller than ideal) and the issue was with the 75+ group, but I may have that wrong.
The UK is still vaccinating in descending age order (other than healthcare professionals), so most of the older groups will have had the Pfizer vaccine just because it arrived first and in greater quantities.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I don't see a single person here "gleeful" that the EU is troubled.
I see a lot of people acknowledging the EU is troubled, right down to williamglenn calling for UVDL's resignation on the subject. I see other people trying to whatabout or downplay just how serious this is.
The EU aren't just failing to protect their own citizens, they're jeopardising us. The science and technology exists to eradicate this damned nasty bug but because they've chosen to cheap out on it instead its going to remain on our continent and risks mutation and reintroduction into this country.
I don't see a single person happy about that.
There is some glee. You can only see it if you're not feeling it.
Or if you're a paranoid fool who projects emotions onto others.
I see more anger than glee. With an element of "I told you so" at the worst.
Next time you criticise anyone should I use the word "glee" about your emotions at the time?
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I don't see a single person here "gleeful" that the EU is troubled.
I see a lot of people acknowledging the EU is troubled, right down to williamglenn calling for UVDL's resignation on the subject. I see other people trying to whatabout or downplay just how serious this is.
The EU aren't just failing to protect their own citizens, they're jeopardising us. The science and technology exists to eradicate this damned nasty bug but because they've chosen to cheap out on it instead its going to remain on our continent and risks mutation and reintroduction into this country.
I don't see a single person happy about that.
You clearly aren't following Nigel Farage's broadcasts....!
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
I don't think it is in doubt that in an ideal world the AZN would now be back doing new trials before any country approved it.
And even Pfizer might have been asked to do some more safety studies, given how new the technology is.
But we aren't in an ideal world.
I actually think that by the time we have got through the UK population, we will probably be going back round again with a new vaccine to fight off all the mutant variants.
Thus the arguments of individual efficacy I think a bit of a red herring. At the moment, it is about driving covid rates right down and especially serious cases, rather than total elimination.
I agree and am perfectly happy for my ninety year old mum, for example, to have the AZ vaccine. As long as we can be sure it's safe, whether it works is almost a bonus.
But it does put regulators in a bind. They are supposed to be evidence led, but there doesn't seem to be the evidence right now to support an authorisation for this age group. At best there's a double negative: no evidence to suggest you shouldn't do it. No doubt, more data will come to light with new trials and deployment in the field. In the meantime we are not so much taking shortcuts with the regulatory process, as bypassing it and asking regulators to sign off on it.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Well, you can look at that two ways: - No evidence AZN is effective in over 65s -> don't give the vaccine - No evidence AZN effectiveness in over 65s is different to effectiveness in under 65s, for whom it is effective -> give the vaccine Both technically true. Take your pick.
I don't know whether this is done in the assessments/trials, but I'd be inclined (I'm no virologist, just an epidemiologist without expertise in this area; I've not even done much trial work) to try and model the response with age, e.g. interaction of age and vaccination status against infection risk, so that you can pick up whether there's evidence for a decrease in efficacy with age and the extent of that.
Similar logic in whether you give two doses three weeks apart or delay the second dose. You don't have hard evidence that two doses further apart will be better overall as more get first dose, but you suspect it to be the case. Countries will make different decisions there too, of course.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
Hard to work out who's had a worse week - German politicians or EU ones. If they decide they're unwilling to use AZ for over 65s then it'll set them back months. If they're seriously going to slow the vaccine rollout to a snails pace and offer pensioners no vaccine rather than give them the AZ then they're crazy. They won't be able to get Pfizer all across the continent with ease and have nowhere near enough of Moderna.
They are taking a pessimistic interpretation of the admittedly limited data and not approving the use of the vaccine for the very group that could benefit the most. That might be fine if this was any other disease, but right now that will almost certainly result in thousands of avoidable deaths.
It's known that vaccines are generally less effective for the elderly, and the normal approach is to play around with different doses and dosage regimes to find the best approach for older patients. Understandably this hasn't been done during the highly accelerated development and testing process, and the question is to what extent we are prepared to assume the same approach will work reasonably well for everyone, in advance of getting some reliable data.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Quite important to note that human biology does not magically change on a person's 65th birthday.
Whilst you have to break data up for the purposes of a table, efficacy in adults under 65 is highly relevant to efficacy in the 65+ group. For example, someone could say "there is no evidence to suggest the vaccine will work on 39 year olds called Derek who live in Brighton and work in IT, as none have been tested" but that would be nonsense.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
The Pfizer supply pressure clearly biting, AZ supply lower than expected too. Hopefully by the end of next week we'll be back to normal hitting 3m+ per week.
It seems like a huge public health risk and if in two or three weeks the single jab shows the expected 70% immunity from symptoms in the UK I really hope they reverse this decision.
It's probable that they will end up reversing the decision, so all this will have accomplished is a further delay.
It's really not about whether or not a vaccine prevents COVID-19, where the data is muddled, it should be about whether it prevents severe disease and in that regard all vaccines that are approved look to be very good. That is the what has driven the decisions in the UK, granting immunity and reduced transmission are a bonus but not the goal right now.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
Don't bother. It's more hassle than it's worth now. The courier companies just make up charges at random. I bought about 100 quid worth of 2CV parts from the Netherlands and paid nearly 250 quid in various imposts on top.
I buy and sell a lot of Porsche parts on eBay and the game is now fraudlent values with the balance made up en noir. Recently bought a 991.2 GT3RS ECU and key set for "80 euros". Lol.
2CV? Does that mean you'll be heading to the country, with a dozen eggs and, erm, a top hat any time soon?
I've always had 2CVs since my time at university in France. I've currently got an '87 Spécial that's SORNed. I am putting it back on the road because it makes me feel some kind of way.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
I believe that's what's called seeing conditions on the ground for himself...
Well that is one way of describing it but it's yet another gift from the Tories to the SNP, free gratis and for nothing.
The Scots have made up their minds about Boris and there's nothing he can do to change that.
It's not as if Mrt Johnson ever meets any random members of the Scottish public, either - though neither did Ms May have the guts to do so. I rather feel the incident of Mr Cameron and the porridge factory rather put the Tories off that for good.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
Aren't these the supply issues that we were warned about weeks ago?
The drawn out and leaking process of the European approval is really bad. It has allowed fake news and now excitable journalists jumping on all sorts of conflicting titbits of info.
I have to say very impressed here how both the announcement of trial results and approvals were calmly and quietly handled here. The only one where there was any leak of its next week, its next week, was AZN, and nothing more than that.
For all the other announcements, it literally appeared out of nowhere at 6am on a Monday morning.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Good thing they primed about some reduction in supply this week. Vital Feb target under threat.
If Vaccine-gate has exposed the EU's systemic weaknesses to a much wider audience, then that has implications.
Why? well because the people who told us the EU was wonderful and we would shrivel and die without it are pretty much the same people who tell us
Lockdowns are inevitable and necessary America has a liberal majority that was cheated in 2016 and triumphed in 2020 and There's a climate emergency.
And given these folk have been so spectacularly wrong about the EU, maybe some of their other beliefs are worth examining in more detail going forward
52% of people voted Leave.
Zero constituencies in the UK would have voted Trump About 90% of UK think the lockdown is either right or doesn't go far enough. 13% of the UK denies climate change.
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Well that was the express intent of the EU during the entire Brexit negotiations.
They didn't just want us to fail, they DID THEIR BEST to make us fail.
!I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”. Michel Barnier
"They" haven't said anything of the sort. Peter Liese said it. Do you take everything Dennis Skinner or Bill Cash says in the HoC as "the UK says"?
The German Health Minister repeated today that any production constraints should hit everyone equally, i.e. supplies should be diverted from the UK. They are refusing to take responsibility for the consequences of their delay in signing the contract. https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1354717241061871617
If, as seems likely, we do not yield on this point then it’s an interesting and unpredictable first case study for our post Brexit relationship. Not a happy case study, or the one any of us would have hoped for to shape our relationship, but an interesting one.
The EU expect us to show "solidarity" with the EU even though we're no longer in the EU?
I think we are seeing with the vaccine response that old sore in the relationship of PB Leavers to the EU in their fruit-loop way: it's not enough for you to succeed; your friends must fail.
Yes, the gleeful reaction of europhobes to the EU's vaccine troubles has been quite intense. I've given it some thought and I think what we might be seeing is an example of something known in the football world, and indeed in wider society, as Stockport County Syndrome. The name derives from the tendency of the more fervent supporters of a small town, perennially struggling club to take great pleasure from the occasional defeat of their wealthy, big city rivals. All very understandable on a human level, and certainly nothing to overly chastize people for, but of course it changes nothing. When the excitement dies down a week or so later, it's BAU. There is still Man Utd. And there is still Stockport County.
I don't see a single person here "gleeful" that the EU is troubled.
I see a lot of people acknowledging the EU is troubled, right down to williamglenn calling for UVDL's resignation on the subject. I see other people trying to whatabout or downplay just how serious this is.
The EU aren't just failing to protect their own citizens, they're jeopardising us. The science and technology exists to eradicate this damned nasty bug but because they've chosen to cheap out on it instead its going to remain on our continent and risks mutation and reintroduction into this country.
I don't see a single person happy about that.
There is some glee. You can only see it if you're not feeling it.
Or if you're a paranoid fool who projects emotions onto others.
I see more anger than glee. With an element of "I told you so" at the worst.
Next time you criticise anyone should I use the word "glee" about your emotions at the time?
glee /ɡliː/ noun noun: glee; plural noun: glees 1. great delight, especially from one's own good fortune or another's misfortune. "his face lit up with impish glee"
I genuinely don’t understand the messaging from the EU here. They really want more of the AZ vaccine but they are only just about to approve it, and then not for the high risk groups? Early impressions matter. If they get the message out that this vaccine isn’t safe, the whole work suffers.
It's simply that it is not yet proven to their required level of confidence that this vaccine is sufficiently effective in the over 65s to be worth giving. Different here. We reduced our required confidence levels for approval in the light of our NHS emergency.
I understand the core point, and that’s their choice. It’s the broader comms and the leaking of the suggestion that it’s unsafe which I don’t understand. It benefits nobody.
I haven't seen any leaking that it is unsafe. Only that its efficacy could be as low as 8%.
Most people will probably hear something like that as meaning unsafe, even when under that worst case it's still technically better than nothing. But if its insufficient data behind decision leaking that it is proven low efficacy is reckless.
Quite. They are making no effort to manage the message, and everyone suffers.
The drawn out and leaking process of the European approval is really bad. It has allowed fake news and now excitable journalists jumping on all sorts of conflicting titbits of info.
I have to say very impressed here how both the announcement of trial results and approvals were calmly and quietly handled here. The only one where there was any leak of its next week, its next week, was AZN, and nothing more than that.
For all the other announcements, it literally appeared out of nowhere at 6am on a Monday morning.
Especially the head boffin leading the press conference. Clearly on top of her brief.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
We're still managing over 2m a week which is great but we will fall short of the Feb 15th target unless we can get back up to last week's levels by next week.
Off topic more or less, does anyone knows what the new customs rules are for buying from private sellers in the EU on Ebay? I'm looking at a fairly pricey item in Potsdam but still a pretty good deal, having a wheen of VAT and customs charges whacked on it makes it a lot less good
Don't bother. It's more hassle than it's worth now. The courier companies just make up charges at random. I bought about 100 quid worth of 2CV parts from the Netherlands and paid nearly 250 quid in various imposts on top.
I buy and sell a lot of Porsche parts on eBay and the game is now fraudlent values with the balance made up en noir. Recently bought a 991.2 GT3RS ECU and key set for "80 euros". Lol.
2CV? Does that mean you'll be heading to the country, with a dozen eggs and, erm, a top hat any time soon?
I've always had 2CVs since my time at university in France. I've currently got an '87 Spécial that's SORNed. I am putting it back on the road because it makes me feel some kind of way.
My chum and I used to go megalith-hunting in his in the 1980s. The peel-back top was great for doing a Rommel impersonation to look over the hedges for the osbcure sites we were ticking off.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
If someone would take out all the 700s on Luisa Porritt being next London Mayor it would be appreciated.
n.b. i do not suggest this would be a good bet. Just that it would be appreciated.
No. Not a chance.
Although I am pleased to see that Brian Rose is starting to drift out, so thanks to whoever it was who recommended laying him.
Been on the Rose train a few times - I'd be curious to know if it's directly him interfering in Betfair, or if it's Paddy (or similar) laying off risk (clearly he's interfering with the market somewhere, just unsure if it's Betfair0. It's violent when it happens but it has been consistent so far and I certainly wouldn't be laying him at these prices* with such little depth below - back him and wait for him to come back. If he doesn't again, well no great matter...
*At time of writing last print is 25 but not much there until 11
Hard to work out who's had a worse week - German politicians or EU ones. If they decide they're unwilling to use AZ for over 65s then it'll set them back months. If they're seriously going to slow the vaccine rollout to a snails pace and offer pensioners no vaccine rather than give them the AZ then they're crazy. They won't be able to get Pfizer all across the continent with ease and have nowhere near enough of Moderna.
They are taking a pessimistic interpretation of the admittedly limited data and not approving the use of the vaccine for the very group that could benefit the most. That might be fine if this was any other disease, but right now that will almost certainly result in thousands of avoidable deaths.
The NHS emergency - grave and projected to be catastrophic without urgent action - surely had much to do with us approving the AZ vaccine at a lower than ideal confidence level on efficacy. Same thing applies to our decision to defer the booster and do more 1st jabs.
Perhaps Germany is not in quite such a crisis situation?
The capacity for 500k/day is there. I wouldn't be surprised if the government just miss their target. I said from the start they should have gone for the RyanAir approach, say mid March and then when you do it by end of Feb, can claim success.
However, I hope the media can resist their urge to screech about this. It clearly isn't the UK fault and are still doing very well.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
We're still managing over 2m a week which is great but we will fall short of the Feb 15th target unless we can get back up to last week's levels by next week.
The EU histrionics are good news for the government. They've demonstrated that there is the ability to hit the target, but clearly supply is the limiting factor. But we say that Pfizer and AZN are doing their best etc. etc.
I believe that's what's called seeing conditions on the ground for himself...
Well that is one way of describing it but it's yet another gift from the Tories to the SNP, free gratis and for nothing.
The Scots have made up their minds about Boris and there's nothing he can do to change that.
It's not as if Mrt Johnson ever meets any random members of the Scottish public, either - though neither did Ms May have the guts to do so. I rather feel the incident of Mr Cameron and the porridge factory rather put the Tories off that for good.
Ms May did pursue the high risk strategy of chapping a few doors in Deeside at least, so she has more balls than BJ.
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date Total 251,902 1,090 252,992 East Of England 24,773 51 24,824 London 41,254 298 41,552 Midlands 41,416 75 41,491 North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682 North West 38,266 408 38,674 South East 37,176 125 37,301 South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
Now I think it is undisputable there are supply issues here in the UK....but our government aren't going full metal Cartman.
"Tight but we're confident of meeting our target" suggests that the government have the capacity to deliver but not the supply at present but think that more is on the way. Hopefully there's a big batch incoming, as it's easily possible for us to be doing 500k a day if the supply is there as demonstrated last week.
This is interesting. The decision to authorise or not authorise the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s depends on precisely two datapoints. One in the vaccination group and one in the control group.
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
Surely the best way to troll the EU is to offer all of the European Commissioners priority AZ vaccines administered here in the UK as part of our effort to recognise their importance in strong bilateral relations?
I understand that anal injections with thick needles may be more efficacious for the stubborn patients.........
Comments
Those look good.
Although of course it is to many, esp. on here.
Given the huge drop in cases, I think we can, however, be reassured that this is a genuine easing of pressure on the NHS. Indeed given the massive fall in cases, it would be very weird - and disturbing - if in-patient pressure HADN'T eased up
Inspection and raid are not synonyms!
We need to be clear that nobody is saying that they have evidence that the AZ vaccine is ineffective for elderly people, merely that the sample size for this age group is so small that it doesn't prove that it is effective. Since the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine is in any case thought from the clinical trial to be lower than the Pfizer vaccine, it does make sense to try to prioritise Pfizer for the most vulnerable groups. Other considerations (freezer storage, organisation) make this complicated, but it's sensible if it can be done.
My impression is that in the UK we're just vaccinating as many as possible with whichever vaccine is to hand? That's understandable, but if we can tweak it to a "Pfizer if possible for the over-60s" policy that would make sense, and nothing to do with vaccine nationalism.
The EU has just made vaccines all about us V them.
Give us YOUR jabs or else. That is exactly what they have said
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354483646602817540?s=20
As calculated, an efficacy rate of 6.3%, although this is clearly nonsense
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1354781400071860230
There is no inferiority complex on either side on this vaccine issue. There is rivalry, panic, and some lingering bitterness over Brexit
I will admit some Leavers have a mental problem, but it is, actually, more of a superiority complex. British exceptionalism. That really is a thing.
Oh wait... we do have that. We can stand down. Random policy proposals on the internet are not required.
Perhaps the British stroke of genius is to adapt its German heritage to allow it to do both simultaneously.
https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1354717241061871617
And even Pfizer might have been asked to do some more safety studies, given how new the technology is.
But we aren't in an ideal world.
I actually think that by the time we have got through the UK population, we will probably be going back round again with a new vaccine to fight off all the mutant variants.
Thus the arguments of individual efficacy I think a bit of a red herring. At the moment, it is about driving covid rates right down and especially serious cases, rather than total elimination.
Though the BBC did report 'the EU' demand UK bound doses.
The Scots have made up their minds about Boris and there's nothing he can do to change that.
And, as Max pointed out yesterday, giving everyone possible a much improved chance of not catching this - with any jab we have - is absolutely correct, as the fewer people infected means less chance of mutation.
And that is now the real enemy of humanity: mutation
We can defintely beat this bastard bug - as long as it does not mutate, yet again, into something even nastier
Why? well because the people who told us the EU was wonderful and we would shrivel and die without it are pretty much the same people who tell us
Lockdowns are inevitable and necessary
America has a liberal majority that was cheated in 2016 and triumphed in 2020
and
There's a climate emergency.
And given these folk have been so spectacularly wrong about the EU, maybe some of their other beliefs are worth examining in more detail going forward
n.b. i do not suggest this would be a good bet. Just that it would be appreciated.
It seems like a huge public health risk and if in two or three weeks the single jab shows the expected 70% immunity from symptoms in the UK I really hope they reverse this decision.
It just makes the EU's aggression towards AZ's supply lines baffling if the EMA back the decision of the German regulator.
The UK is still vaccinating in descending age order (other than healthcare professionals), so most of the older groups will have had the Pfizer vaccine just because it arrived first and in greater quantities.
I see more anger than glee. With an element of "I told you so" at the worst.
Next time you criticise anyone should I use the word "glee" about your emotions at the time?
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 251,902 1,090 252,992
East Of England 24,773 51 24,824
London 41,254 298 41,552
Midlands 41,416 75 41,491
North East And Yorkshire 38,606 76 38,682
North West 38,266 408 38,674
South East 37,176 125 37,301
South West 28,317 53 28,370
What kind of panic do you think we should go for? Running round with hair on fire? War with Erewhon?
But it does put regulators in a bind. They are supposed to be evidence led, but there doesn't seem to be the evidence right now to support an authorisation for this age group. At best there's a double negative: no evidence to suggest you shouldn't do it. No doubt, more data will come to light with new trials and deployment in the field. In the meantime we are not so much taking shortcuts with the regulatory process, as bypassing it and asking regulators to sign off on it.
- No evidence AZN is effective in over 65s -> don't give the vaccine
- No evidence AZN effectiveness in over 65s is different to effectiveness in under 65s, for whom it is effective -> give the vaccine
Both technically true. Take your pick.
I don't know whether this is done in the assessments/trials, but I'd be inclined (I'm no virologist, just an epidemiologist without expertise in this area; I've not even done much trial work) to try and model the response with age, e.g. interaction of age and vaccination status against infection risk, so that you can pick up whether there's evidence for a decrease in efficacy with age and the extent of that.
Similar logic in whether you give two doses three weeks apart or delay the second dose. You don't have hard evidence that two doses further apart will be better overall as more get first dose, but you suspect it to be the case. Countries will make different decisions there too, of course.
Although I am pleased to see that Brian Rose is starting to drift out, so thanks to whoever it was who recommended laying him.
Whilst you have to break data up for the purposes of a table, efficacy in adults under 65 is highly relevant to efficacy in the 65+ group. For example, someone could say "there is no evidence to suggest the vaccine will work on 39 year olds called Derek who live in Brighton and work in IT, as none have been tested" but that would be nonsense.
It's really not about whether or not a vaccine prevents COVID-19, where the data is muddled, it should be about whether it prevents severe disease and in that regard all vaccines that are approved look to be very good. That is the what has driven the decisions in the UK, granting immunity and reduced transmission are a bonus but not the goal right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch/bOR38552MJA
"If the EU are unpleasant to us, then that means lockdowns are unnecessary!"
I'm genuinely speechless.
I have to say very impressed here how both the announcement of trial results and approvals were calmly and quietly handled here. The only one where there was any leak of its next week, its next week, was AZN, and nothing more than that.
For all the other announcements, it literally appeared out of nowhere at 6am on a Monday morning.
Zero constituencies in the UK would have voted Trump
About 90% of UK think the lockdown is either right or doesn't go far enough.
13% of the UK denies climate change.
Your idea to link those ideas together is mad.
Sounds like cherrypicking to me.
/ɡliː/
noun
noun: glee; plural noun: glees
1. great delight, especially from one's own good fortune or another's misfortune.
"his face lit up with impish glee"
Nope, you're right, none of that whatsoever.
*At time of writing last print is 25 but not much there until 11
Perhaps Germany is not in quite such a crisis situation?
However, I hope the media can resist their urge to screech about this. It clearly isn't the UK fault and are still doing very well.