Best of three. What of a fresh Scottish independence referendum? – politicalbetting.com

Andy_JS said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

glw said:

If the EU actually block an export of vaccine to the UK right now then we might as well tear up the deal with the EU as it would have been proven worthless in less than a month.

That's possibly understating the seriousness. Banning vaccine exports to the UK would be something close to an act of war and HMG should make that very clear to the EU.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves. Nothing has actually happened yet.

We are some distance from the point at which we send the Belgian ambassador home with a flea in his ear, let alone attempt to blockade Antwerp with our feeble navy.

The EU won't be that silly. Common sense will prevail.

Probably.

They can block exports at their peril. It isn't just the UK they are exporting to.

I'm tempted at this juncture to say that they'd probably take great pleasure in confiscating supplies intended for the UK to use themselves, whilst letting the Americans and others have theirs. But in truth that's a preposterous scenario.

Probably.

Does anyone know how much of the Pfizer vaccine we already have in the UK, ready to use?

I believe HMG has been deliberately evasive on that question, not wanting people to know how much or where it is stored for obvious security reasons.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Is there not a big unfinished vaccine please somewhere in England? Also one being built in Livingston in Scotland I think - need to get all these up and running, not just to ensure supply, but hopefully to export elsewhere to help other countries.

There's a large vaccine research and production facility under construction near Oxford. Was at the planning stage when Covid kicked off. Hancock threw a load of money at it and told them to hurry up.

https://www.vmicuk.com/

No idea if this source is legit but.....

https://breakingdefense.com/2021/01/israelis-say-theyll-attack-iran-if-us-eases-sanctions/

TimT said:

Andy_JS said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

glw said:

If the EU actually block an export of vaccine to the UK right now then we might as well tear up the deal with the EU as it would have been proven worthless in less than a month.

That's possibly understating the seriousness. Banning vaccine exports to the UK would be something close to an act of war and HMG should make that very clear to the EU.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves. Nothing has actually happened yet.

We are some distance from the point at which we send the Belgian ambassador home with a flea in his ear, let alone attempt to blockade Antwerp with our feeble navy.

The EU won't be that silly. Common sense will prevail.

Probably.

They can block exports at their peril. It isn't just the UK they are exporting to.

I'm tempted at this juncture to say that they'd probably take great pleasure in confiscating supplies intended for the UK to use themselves, whilst letting the Americans and others have theirs. But in truth that's a preposterous scenario.

Probably.

Does anyone know how much of the Pfizer vaccine we already have in the UK, ready to use?

I believe HMG has been deliberately evasive on that question, not wanting people to know how much or where it is stored for obvious security reasons.

And rightly so. The precise location of the stockpile shouldn't be public knowledge.

Black_Rook said:

Yokes said:

RobD said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1353836463130079232

So the veil is lifted and that's what this is about, they hate our success. They want us to fail because they are failing, it's nothing more than that.

Time for Johnson to summon the Belgian ambassador?

I believe the AZ vaccine for UK use is being produced from frozen product in Wales so that hopefully address that. There seems few doubts based on Israeli data however that Pfizers one is quite a product.

I'm curious as where the AZ stock for Europe was intended to be produced

That was covered earlier. There's a plant in Belgium (not the same one as Pfizer's) which is apparently having production difficulties. AZ are attributing their failure to supply the EU the full amount on time to this.

Novasep I understand is producing active product that is then filled, but I'm not clear whether that fill is by them or elsewhere. That would suggest that anyone in Europe is going to hit issues with AZ supply if Novasep are short. The UK probably got a head start with pre approval frozen stock and initial ships of fresh active ingredient unless there is other active ingredient production elsewhere that the UK is drawing on.

Good progress on vaccination here in SW London (Chessington). Wife who is in the shielding group just got a text offering an appointment for Friday

TimT said:

Andy_JS said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

glw said:

If the EU actually block an export of vaccine to the UK right now then we might as well tear up the deal with the EU as it would have been proven worthless in less than a month.

That's possibly understating the seriousness. Banning vaccine exports to the UK would be something close to an act of war and HMG should make that very clear to the EU.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves. Nothing has actually happened yet.

We are some distance from the point at which we send the Belgian ambassador home with a flea in his ear, let alone attempt to blockade Antwerp with our feeble navy.

The EU won't be that silly. Common sense will prevail.

Probably.

They can block exports at their peril. It isn't just the UK they are exporting to.

I'm tempted at this juncture to say that they'd probably take great pleasure in confiscating supplies intended for the UK to use themselves, whilst letting the Americans and others have theirs. But in truth that's a preposterous scenario.

Probably.

Does anyone know how much of the Pfizer vaccine we already have in the UK, ready to use?

I believe HMG has been deliberately evasive on that question, not wanting people to know how much or where it is stored for obvious security reasons.

Commercial sensitivity as well, essentially to avoid these kinds of situations where one country accuses a manufacturer of favouring a different one. The EU has gone completely insane.

TimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

A slight rowing back (tho not total) from Handelsblatt

https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1353841867029438465?s=20

https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1353841883840184320?s=19

Reported like political tittle tattle, when far more important than that.

Interesting that the mainstream international media do not appear to have run with this story yet. Will be interesting to see what the picture is tomorrow. But I guess we don't have to wait to know what the Express' line will be. They might be calling HYUFD for input on the invasion plan.

Probably taking the time to understand what is being said instead of getting into an instant froth like some of the more excitable people on social media. Pretty wild how quickly people start making references to war. Is it a full moon soon?

Has the EU now got BDS?

Paradoxically this disagreement could encourage a higher take-up of the vaccine in the UK, assuming supplies are available.

Mortimer said:

RobD said:

Mortimer said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

glw said:

If the EU actually block an export of vaccine to the UK right now then we might as well tear up the deal with the EU as it would have been proven worthless in less than a month.

That's possibly understating the seriousness. Banning vaccine exports to the UK would be something close to an act of war and HMG should make that very clear to the EU.

Not sure I'd go that far, but any excuse to rewatch this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY

The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

The whole segment is, for me, the best of the whole Brass Eye output...

Better than Cake? Shatner's Bassoon? Hmmmm....

TimT said:

Andy_JS said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

glw said:

If the EU actually block an export of vaccine to the UK right now then we might as well tear up the deal with the EU as it would have been proven worthless in less than a month.

That's possibly understating the seriousness. Banning vaccine exports to the UK would be something close to an act of war and HMG should make that very clear to the EU.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves. Nothing has actually happened yet.

We are some distance from the point at which we send the Belgian ambassador home with a flea in his ear, let alone attempt to blockade Antwerp with our feeble navy.

The EU won't be that silly. Common sense will prevail.

Probably.

They can block exports at their peril. It isn't just the UK they are exporting to.

I'm tempted at this juncture to say that they'd probably take great pleasure in confiscating supplies intended for the UK to use themselves, whilst letting the Americans and others have theirs. But in truth that's a preposterous scenario.

Probably.

Does anyone know how much of the Pfizer vaccine we already have in the UK, ready to use?

I believe HMG has been deliberately evasive on that question, not wanting people to know how much or where it is stored for obvious security reasons.

Yes. Of course the crucial thing is whether we have enough vaccine already here to get up to the crucial 13 million figure that will cover the most vulnerable groups.

not_on_fire said:

Good progress on vaccination here in SW London (Chessington). Wife who is in the shielding group just got a text offering an appointment for Friday

I wish they'd hurry up here, though in complete fairness to the Government they did say they wouldn't offer an appointment to the whole of the fourth cohort until February 15th (am thinking here specifically of husband, who's shielding.) Just got to sit tight a bit longer I suppose.

MarqueeMark said:

So it's now clear - the EU are trying to kill our Nanas and Gramps.

Bastards.

They move fast, some peoples' have been dead for decades!

Mary_Batty said:

TimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

A slight rowing back (tho not total) from Handelsblatt

https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1353841867029438465?s=20

https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1353841883840184320?s=19

Reported like political tittle tattle, when far more important than that.

Interesting that the mainstream international media do not appear to have run with this story yet. Will be interesting to see what the picture is tomorrow. But I guess we don't have to wait to know what the Express' line will be. They might be calling HYUFD for input on the invasion plan.

Probably taking the time to understand what is being said instead of getting into an instant froth like some of the more excitable people on social media. Pretty wild how quickly people start making references to war. Is it a full moon soon?

I think the references to war are in response to the EU threatening to steal our vaccine supply, not the highly irresponsible German journalist's story.

UK percentage vaccinated just moved from 10% to 11% on the Bloomberg page.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

kle4 said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Has the EU now got BDS?

There has been some weird stuff today. At least the German news story, if bullcrap, is just someone in government there trying to mess around for gods knows what reason, but some the actual institutional stories have been strange too.

I think it's a genuine mistake, and I honestly think someone is getting the mother of all bollockings about it right now. And if the journo is so absolutely sure of what his source said, it'll be the source.

RobD said:

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

glw said:

If the EU actually block an export of vaccine to the UK right now then we might as well tear up the deal with the EU as it would have been proven worthless in less than a month.

That's possibly understating the seriousness. Banning vaccine exports to the UK would be something close to an act of war and HMG should make that very clear to the EU.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves. Nothing has actually happened yet.

We are some distance from the point at which we send the Belgian ambassador home with a flea in his ear, let alone attempt to blockade Antwerp with our feeble navy.

The EU won't be that silly. Common sense will prevail.

Probably.

They can block exports at their peril. It isn't just the UK they are exporting to.

I'm tempted at this juncture to say that they'd probably take great pleasure in confiscating supplies intended for the UK to use themselves, whilst letting the Americans and others have theirs. But in truth that's a preposterous scenario.

Probably.

Isn't that an actual declaration of war against the UK?

It would be the most outrageous diplomatic act between western nations in many decades.

I think we'd win quickly if it was us, Israel and the USA against the EU.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1353842905434247168

So it's not '8% effective' it's 'Over 65s made only 8% of the sample' - that's an error and a bloody half if true.

Whoever it was, they should not be allowed to play with scissors or other sharp things.

Or numbers.

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

glw said:

If the EU actually block an export of vaccine to the UK right now then we might as well tear up the deal with the EU as it would have been proven worthless in less than a month.

That's possibly understating the seriousness. Banning vaccine exports to the UK would be something close to an act of war and HMG should make that very clear to the EU.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves. Nothing has actually happened yet.

We are some distance from the point at which we send the Belgian ambassador home with a flea in his ear, let alone attempt to blockade Antwerp with our feeble navy.

The EU won't be that silly. Common sense will prevail.

Probably.

They can block exports at their peril. It isn't just the UK they are exporting to.

I'm tempted at this juncture to say that they'd probably take great pleasure in confiscating supplies intended for the UK to use themselves, whilst letting the Americans and others have theirs. But in truth that's a preposterous scenario.

Probably.

Isn't that an actual declaration of war against the UK?

It would be the most outrageous diplomatic act between western nations in many decades.

I think we'd win quickly if it was us, Israel and the USA against the EU.

The theory is that the EU may just try and block exports to the UK rather than everyone else but surely Pfizer just send more of the Belgian doses to the US and then export US manufactured doses to the UK if they try that.

As it turns out the UK does have domestic active product manufacturing as well as finished vaccine production for Astra Zeneca so maybe we are alright Jack.. or Jacques..or Johan.

Just thought to have a quick look at the Covid case heat map - ever so gradually easing back from red to orange. So long as we're not whacked by a resistant strain, we keep the steady flow of jabs going and avoid a war with Belgium then it still looks like we'll be over the worst of this in another few months.

Anyway, bedtime. Goodnight.

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1353842905434247168

So it's not '8% effective' it's 'Over 65s made only 8% of the sample' - that's an error and a bloody half if true.

Whoever it was, they should not be allowed to play with scissors or other sharp things.

Or numbers.

Should the German government join the Italian and Dutch ones in resigning if it is an error of that type?

Another story illustrating the unique position of Taiwan in chip manufacturing.

Now in driver's seat, Taiwan chipmakers weigh new price hikes for autos
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Electronics/Now-in-driver-s-seat-Taiwan-chipmakers-weigh-new-price-hikes-for-autos
TAIPEI -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest contract chipmaker, and Taiwanese peers are considering another round of price increases mainly on automotive chips, Nikkei learned Monday, as a global semiconductor shortage puts pricing power firmly on their side.

The hikes of up to 15% are being considered by Vanguard International Semiconductor, a TSMC subsidiary that makes auto chips, along with other Taiwanese players including No. 4 foundry United Microelectronics Corp.

If the Taiwanese suppliers do successfully negotiate higher prices, that would mark the rare case of two substantial hikes within just a few months, after a round of increases that began last fall. Their aggressiveness shows how they now occupy the driver's seat in price negotiations with automakers.

When contacted by Nikkei, UMC Chief Financial Officer Liu Chi-tung said he "can't answer questions about prices." But he added that "it's true that we chipmakers are in a relatively advantageous position based on the supply-demand balance."

Any new increases are expected to be phased in from the second half of February into March.

The Taiwanese foundries appear to have reached out to customers that specialize in automotive chips, including the Netherlands' NXP Semiconductors and Renesas Electronics of Japan. Renesas, NXP and peers have already asked automakers to accept higher prices, and further increases would likely dent auto companies' profit margins.

In the last round of hikes, chip foundries reportedly raised prices by 10% to 15% in response to a wave of additional orders, some urgent, to meet demand from automakers ramping up production...

@HYUFD will be ready to send tanks down the tunnel in the morning if the EU don't get off their high horse...

GIN1138 said:

Everyone to Dirty Dicks for party in July?

Oh god that would be nice....

RobD said:

.

GIN1138 said:

@HYUFD will be ready to send tanks down the tunnel in the morning if the EU don't get off their high horse...

In a pincer movement, with a marines invasion of Antwerp to secure the Pfizer factory. They won't see it coming.

For a moment I misread that as the Panzer factory ...

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

Have you and Mrs G had your vaccines yet Big G?

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

With all due respect, have they actually done that?

They've announced a scheme where they have to notify of all vaccine exports for approval. Why would they need such a scheme if they weren't going to refuse at some point?

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

Have you and Mrs G had your vaccines yet Big G?

Yes thank you GIN

Pfizer last Saturday and we are very grateful to everyone involved

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

With all due respect, have they actually done that?

The export licencing of our vaccine has been threatened to all third party countries

Luckyguy1983 said:

kle4 said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Has the EU now got BDS?

There has been some weird stuff today. At least the German news story, if bullcrap, is just someone in government there trying to mess around for gods knows what reason, but some the actual institutional stories have been strange too.

I think it's a genuine mistake, and I honestly think someone is getting the mother of all bollockings about it right now. And if the journo is so absolutely sure of what his source said, it'll be the source.

I suspect @Andy_Cooke got it right earlier: given it's a sample size of just 10, the paper probably said "70% effective (95% confidence interval 8-97%)". And then some lazy innumerate journalist desperate for a story ran with:

"Trials indicate AZN's effectiveness with older recipients could be as low as 8%"

It is long past my bedtime folks so have a good nights rest everyone

Good night

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kle4 said:

TrèsDifficile said:

Has the EU now got BDS?

There has been some weird stuff today. At least the German news story, if bullcrap, is just someone in government there trying to mess around for gods knows what reason, but some the actual institutional stories have been strange too.

I think it's a genuine mistake, and I honestly think someone is getting the mother of all bollockings about it right now. And if the journo is so absolutely sure of what his source said, it'll be the source.

I suspect @Andy_Cooke got it right earlier: given it's a sample size of just 10, the paper probably said "70% effective (95% confidence interval 8-97%)". And then some lazy innumerate journalist desperate for a story ran with:

"Trials indicate AZN's effectiveness with older recipients could be as low as 8%"

It's a workable theory, but I think the presence of both '8%' and 'over 65s' in the other bit, makes that theory the frontrunner.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1353863837787840512?s=20

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

Have you and Mrs G had your vaccines yet Big G?

Yes thank you GIN

Pfizer last Saturday and we are very grateful to everyone involved

Ooooooooo excellent. Pleased to hear it!

Big G is now under the control of Bill Gates....

He's already gone and got a Zune.

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

Have you and Mrs G had your vaccines yet Big G?

Yes thank you GIN

Pfizer last Saturday and we are very grateful to everyone involved

Ooooooooo excellent. Pleased to hear it!

Big G is now under the control of Bill Gates....

These people have just had their injection:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAkuJXGldrM

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

Have you and Mrs G had your vaccines yet Big G?

Yes thank you GIN

Pfizer last Saturday and we are very grateful to everyone involved

Ooooooooo excellent. Pleased to hear it!

Big G is now under the control of Bill Gates....

Or Bigger G, as some of us don't call him.

rcs1000 said:

Floater said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

With all due respect, have they actually done that?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/25/brussels-threatens-block-exports-pfizer-covid-vaccine/

I am willing to bet that the EU will not actually limit any Pfizer exports. I think they are willy waving to encourage Pfizer to make sure they improve their supply to the EU.

How can they improve the EU supply without limiting it somewhere else?

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This has been a day of shame for the EU and will convince many we are right to have left

If this does hit the headlines in the morning with threats by the EU to impound our supplies, I fear that the consequences will be an international PR disaster for Europe

With all due respect, have they actually done that?

They've announced a scheme where they have to notify of all vaccine exports for approval. Why would they need such a scheme if they weren't going to refuse at some point?

Isn't it just a (not very) subtle reminder to the companies that they have orders to fulfil to the EU? I would be very surprised if it was actually used.

The EU has warned it will tighten rules on exports of Covid vaccines, amid a row with AstraZeneca over a cut in planned supplies to the 27-member bloc.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55805903

FrancisUrquhart said:

The EU has warned it will tighten rules on exports of Covid vaccines, amid a row with AstraZeneca over a cut in planned supplies to the 27-member bloc.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55805903

Didn't the Trade Federation try this with Naboo?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daily Mail reporting 8%....

Brexit war over vaccines: Brussels threat to UK vaccine supplies after it demands Pfizer informs them of non-EU exports as regulator ‘plans to reject use of Oxford jab for over-65s’ after German claim it is only 8% effective in pensioners

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9184203/AstraZeneca-say-meet-EUs-Covid-19-vaccine-demands-blocs-supply-chain-problems.html

I’m disappointed the Mail have ran with this (though perhaps not surprised), but at least they have been partially dismissive of the German claims. This story is now blowing up and I think we are truly in the midst of the vaccine wars.

When the initial German media reports came through tonight I felt quite ill. A similar feeling to when I was pacing up and down at my 2019 work Xmas do waiting for the yougov MRP to be released. There is a lot at stake here, reputations, optimism and of course lives.

I feel more comfortable about things a few hours later, since Astra Zeneca, Oxford University, various reputable journalists and medical experts have partially debunked the initial story and that no data supporting the 8% claim has been put forward.

If found to be false then heads should roll in the German media but I doubt they will. There is an ongoing view among some Europhile politicians that a clandestine collaboration between the UK and Astra Zeneca can be used to mask any deficiencies in the EU vaccine rollout and to explain faltering supply issues. Britain represents an obvious scapegoat in the current Brexit climate and thus I hope Zahawi goes in hard on the German media and the political sources of these probable smears.

A misinformation campaign of this ilk is incredibly dangerous in the current climate and we should now challenge these probable falsehoods so they don’t happen again.

TrèsDifficile said:

The New European's unbiased view..
twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1353827394994450434?s=20

I wonder what his take would be if the UK did that? I guarantee he was a "Internal Market Bill" = paramount to an act of war

TrèsDifficile said:

The New European's unbiased view..
https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1353827394994450434?s=20

Again and again, the pro-EU lobby rushes to level charges against the UK that would make at least as much sense if they also levelled them in the opposite direction.

TrèsDifficile said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I don't want to live on this world if people are talking about Piers Moron for Prime Minister.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1353829237933957120/photo/1

It wasn't long ago on here that I proposed "Piers Morgan elected" as the three scariest words possible

In that photo Morgan is just a head, so you can put him on a lollipop stick to be like Cromwell.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-reports-from-germany-that-the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-has-8-efficacy-in-over-65s/


This might be useful.