Is Biden going honour his commitment to make Washington DC a state in its own right? – politicalbett
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If there’s not a backlog of vials collecting dust, the number of vaccines administered per staff hour worked at the centres is probably best served with everyone on day shifts six days a week. Once vaccine supply isn’t the constraint then evening, early morning and Sunday shifts can be added.MarqueeMark said:
It's really only an issue if stocks of the jab back up on weekends, when they could be being put to work days earlier. By February it might be more of an issue.turbotubbs said:
Is it though? If we can deliver say 3-4 million doses a week, mainly on Mon-Fri, does it matter if the total every day is not the same?Philip_Thompson said:
100% agreed.MaxPB said:
Getting 7-day full capacity is much more important to me than getting 24h opening. When the programme moves down to working age people weekend appointments will be even more important than usual.MarqueeMark said:
Still curious why the numbers halve between Friday and Saturday.eek said:
Weekend figures day 1FrancisUrquhart said:Only 200k jabs in todays numbers....
Incoming Daily Mail headline claiming vaccine programme is off track and will fail.
Many GP surgeries are closed over the weekend, but a solution is needed for 7-day operations.
Once all the healthcare workers are done, a formal protocol for end-of-shift walk-up queue system for spare vaccines might also be useful (if only to avoid negative stories about ‘friends’ of workers being called up).0 -
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.4 -
That would require a constitutional amendment though, and I don't think it would achieve the 3/4 majority of state ratifications. There are enough small states that get proportionally higher representation in the EC that would block it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Or you could redistribute Electoral Votes proportionally by State, with the smallest (inc. DC) getting 1.eek said:
Which would be a nice compromise for those people who currently want to remove the electoral college and just use the popular vote.rpjs said:On topic: I agree that Puerto Rico might get statehood before DC. In fact, PR just voted in an advisory referendum in November to seek statehood. There have been previous referendums on the island but these were all three-choice: statehood, independence or status quo with no one option getting a majority. Many of these referendums were boycotted by the supporters of one or more of the options. November's referendum was the first to be a simple yes/no to statehood (yes got 52.5%, no 47.5%) with a decent turnout (54.7%, close to the 55% turnout in the simultaneous Puerto Rico general election).
Congress can admit a new state with a simple Joint Resolution of both houses (the other way Congress can make law other than passing a full Act). Like an Act, a JR requires Presidential assent, or a 2/3 override by both Houses. However, in practice it's a bit more complicated than that: usually in the past Congress has first passed an Organizing Act authorizing and requiring the putative state to draw up a constitution for itself and this needs to be adopted by a referendum of the new state's voters and approved by Congress before the JR admitting it to the Union. In Puerto Rico's case, it already has a constitution that has been adopted by its electorate and approved by Congress. Most likely it might require some amendment to be an actual state constitution, but it would seem that Congress could probably go straight to an admitting resolution in the case of PR. The precedent would be Vermont, which had already adopted a constitution as an independent republic although it did adopt a new constitution in 1793, two years after joining the Union, which is still in effect today.
DC statehood would certainly require more than a simple Act or JR of Admission: the District does not have a formal constitution, it's current quasi-municipal government was established by Act of Congress. The US Constitution requires the establishment of a federal district, which is why the proposals for DC statehood always include redrawing the federal district to a rump containing the main federal buildings. Unfortunately, the really big fly in the ointment is the 23rd Amendment which grants the federal district as many Electoral College votes as the least populous states (currently three). Repealing this amendment would need a full 2/3 majority of both Houses and ratification by 3/4 of the states. If it's not repealed, then as things stand, the only remaining inhabitants of the federal district, i.e. the incumbent First Family, would have the power to choose three Electoral College members all by themselves!
However, the 23rd does state that Congress can legislate to establish the manner by which the District appoints its Electoral College members, so any bill to organize for DC statehood could include provisions to reform that; perhaps the obvious solution would be for the District's electors to be assigned to whoever wins a majority of the states' electoral votes0 -
Two newlywed pensioners are urging everyone to get vaccinated as they were among the first to receive a dose at a new centre.
BBC News - Covid-19: Mansfield newlyweds, 90 and 86, in vaccination plea
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-557983280 -
Brexit/London Global Financial Services Hub update:
https://www.thetradenews.com/tp-icap-no-longer-able-to-service-all-eu-clients-as-pandemic-delays-paris-brexit-move/0 -
Yes, you could do that. But what you're describing is what was done in the trials, but with fewer people and lacking randomisation. So... why? You spend a load of money and get some results that are less robust and less precise than those you already have.DavidL said:I am going to have 1 more go at this and then let it go. If you test 5k people vaccinated before Christmas in London statistically something like 480 of them will have the virus right now. If its materially less than that it is probable that immunisation prevents infection to some degree. Of course you would need to consider if those tested, given their age, were more sheltered than the community as a whole but you would very rapidly get some idea. If next to none of them have the virus you can be reasonably confident that you are not just symptomless but uninfected and therefore extremely likely not to infect anyone else.
I just don't believe that this would be that hard. We have huge testing capacity at the present time. Lets find out!0 -
Looking at data for Israel, it does rather look as if they are having a weekly effect as well. One centred around Fridays....Sandpit said:
If there’s not a backlog of vials collecting dust, the number of vaccines administered per staff hour worked at the centres is probably best served with everyone on day shifts six days a week. Once vaccine supply isn’t the constraint then evening, early morning and Sunday shifts can be added.MarqueeMark said:
It's really only an issue if stocks of the jab back up on weekends, when they could be being put to work days earlier. By February it might be more of an issue.turbotubbs said:
Is it though? If we can deliver say 3-4 million doses a week, mainly on Mon-Fri, does it matter if the total every day is not the same?Philip_Thompson said:
100% agreed.MaxPB said:
Getting 7-day full capacity is much more important to me than getting 24h opening. When the programme moves down to working age people weekend appointments will be even more important than usual.MarqueeMark said:
Still curious why the numbers halve between Friday and Saturday.eek said:
Weekend figures day 1FrancisUrquhart said:Only 200k jabs in todays numbers....
Incoming Daily Mail headline claiming vaccine programme is off track and will fail.
Many GP surgeries are closed over the weekend, but a solution is needed for 7-day operations.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=~ISR®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=daily&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc1 -
That's a handy visualisation.eek said:
Just because the teachers are vaccinated that doesn't mean they can't infect others thoughSandpit said:
The kids passing it around between families was one issue, the other was the number of staff absent - either with the virus itself, or isolating having been in contact with someone sick.Philip_Thompson said:
How do you find out with any scientific certainty that they were the chains in transmission?DavidL said:
Roughly 2 weeks and several thousand were innoculated in December. Is there evidence of any of them having the virus (even without being ill) or being a link in a chain of transmission? It is so important.MaxPB said:
Because it takes weeks for them to become effective and then another few weeks for it to feed through into the actual case/hospital numbers. To see what effect the vaccinated numbers have today, you need to see how many people cumulatively had it 5 weeks ago, and that's still a pretty small number, even for us. Which is why all eyes are in Israel right now which was very fast out of the blocks compared to us.DavidL said:
So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.Andy_Cooke said:
That is an explicitly untrue statement.TOPPING said:
Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.Philip_Thompson said:
It will need a change in the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.Leon said:
That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.CarlottaVance said:
Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.Leon said:A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.
It really is impressive.
As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.
Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.
Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
Take schools for example. If we can be confident that teachers exposed to children who may well have the virus asymptomatically will not be infected and take it home to their families the arguments about reopening schools (once teachers have been vaccinated) becomes very different. I honestly don't think that there is a more important question out there at the moment. Possibly does any of the variations avoid the protection of vaccination ( a provisional no but watch this space carefully) but short of that.
Surely the issue with schools isn't teachers, it is children catching it asymptomatically and then taking it back to their families. That will happen even if teachers are vaccinated.
If we can exempt vaccinated school staff from having to isolate when not positive themselves, perhaps with regular testing, that will help keep the schools open.
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483423173521408
Granted it's going to be less of a problem but it's still a possible problem.0 -
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Yes, Texas did adopt a state constitution before admission. I'd have to go dig to see if Congress mandated it or not, but Vermont does set the precedent that if a putative state already has a constitution, and Congress is cool with it, it can be admitted as is. And PR does already have a Congressionally-approved and popularly adopted constitution.ydoethur said:
Very interesting - but didn’t Texas have to adopt a new constitution in 1845 (admittedly, the earlier one did start with ‘Constitution of the Republic of Texas’).rpjs said:On topic: I agree that Puerto Rico might get statehood before DC. In fact, PR just voted in an advisory referendum in November to seek statehood. There have been previous referendums on the island but these were all three-choice: statehood, independence or status quo with no one option getting a majority. Many of these referendums were boycotted by the supporters of one or more of the options. November's referendum was the first to be a simple yes/no to statehood (yes got 52.5%, no 47.5%) with a decent turnout (54.7%, close to the 55% turnout in the simultaneous Puerto Rico general election).
Congress can admit a new state with a simple Joint Resolution of both houses (the other way Congress can make law other than passing a full Act). Like an Act, a JR requires Presidential assent, or a 2/3 override by both Houses. However, in practice it's a bit more complicated than that: usually in the past Congress has first passed an Organizing Act authorizing and requiring the putative state to draw up a constitution for itself and this needs to be adopted by a referendum of the new state's voters and approved by Congress before the JR admitting it to the Union. In Puerto Rico's case, it already has a constitution that has been adopted by its electorate and approved by Congress. Most likely it might require some amendment to be an actual state constitution, but it would seem that Congress could probably go straight to an admitting resolution in the case of PR. The precedent would be Vermont, which had already adopted a constitution as an independent republic although it did adopt a new constitution in 1793, two years after joining the Union, which is still in effect today.
DC statehood would certainly require more than a simple Act or JR of Admission: the District does not have a formal constitution, it's current quasi-municipal government was established by Act of Congress. The US Constitution requires the establishment of a federal district, which is why the proposals for DC statehood always include redrawing the federal district to a rump containing the main federal buildings. Unfortunately, the really big fly in the ointment is the 23rd Amendment which grants the federal district as many Electoral College votes as the least populous states (currently three). Repealing this amendment would need a full 2/3 majority of both Houses and ratification by 3/4 of the states. If it's not repealed, then as things stand, the only remaining inhabitants of the federal district, i.e. the incumbent First Family, would have the power to choose three Electoral College members all by themselves!
However, the 23rd does state that Congress can legislate to establish the manner by which the District appoints its Electoral College members, so any bill to organize for DC statehood could include provisions to reform that; perhaps the obvious solution would be for the District's electors to be assigned to whoever wins a majority of the states' electoral votes
I seem to remember that holding a constitutional convention was a requirement before Hawaii and Alaska were admitted to statehood as well.
Hawaii and Alaska followed the more usual route for federal territories becoming states and adopted state constitutions ahead of admission. However, the difference with PR is that standard federal territories are "organized" by Act of Congress, i.e. their internal "constitution" is a federal statute handed down to them, not a document adopted by the territory itself. Puerto Rico, as a "free and associated Commonwealth" is no longer an organized territory like Alaska and Hawaii (and a whole slew of other states) were immediately before admission.
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Akiva Cohen, an excellent lawyer on the election - who was sceptical of Dominion's chances against Giuliani vis a vis malice (Which is a very steep hurdle in the US) thinks they've got enough to get to discovery.
https://twitter.com/AkivaMCohen/status/13537006412401868801 -
Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.IshmaelZ said:
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.
I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.
So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.1 -
I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?slade said:
Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.0 -
You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.Philip_Thompson said:
Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.IshmaelZ said:
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.
I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.
So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.0 -
Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.TrèsDifficile said:
I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?slade said:
Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.1 -
Need to be a shifty on in Scotland...
The first minister said 46% of over-80s in the community have now received the first of their two vaccines.0 -
I like Raab at 15s. I think that's a decent price for a true blue Leaver who is prime of life, Foreign Secretary, and not Michael Gove.TOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.0 -
That was a separate issue, that was regarding the NI scheme (agreed ultimately with Gove) and the IM Bill - it was a different matter to the UK/NI scheme. And no the EU didn't agree to the UK's demands regarding the NI scheme until long after the IM Bill was introduced and the trusted trader schemes accepted by the EU ultimately are nothing like Barnier was talking about if you understand the details.williamglenn said:
You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.Philip_Thompson said:
Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.IshmaelZ said:
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.
I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.
So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
Regarding the UK/EU trade deal the EU was entirely disingenuous saying to Theresa May the UK couldn't have what she was asking for and instead saying a Canada style deal (which she didn't want) then bait-and-switch saying after Boris Johnson said he only wanted a Canada style deal that it wasn't available.
On all of the core fundamental disputes left at the end the UK got its principles through. We agreed a good, clean Canada style deal in the end. The UK got what we were seeking - you may think its shit, but if its shit blame the government because the government got what it was asking for.
The government owns this deal completely now.1 -
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.0 -
66% strongly agree on getting COVID vaccine in UK (86% agree). In France it's 29%.
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1353721054607376384?s=200 -
Remember, this just for a bit of fun!rpjs said:
That would require a constitutional amendment though, and I don't think it would achieve the 3/4 majority of state ratifications. There are enough small states that get proportionally higher representation in the EC that would block it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Or you could redistribute Electoral Votes proportionally by State, with the smallest (inc. DC) getting 1.eek said:
Which would be a nice compromise for those people who currently want to remove the electoral college and just use the popular vote.rpjs said:On topic: I agree that Puerto Rico might get statehood before DC. In fact, PR just voted in an advisory referendum in November to seek statehood. There have been previous referendums on the island but these were all three-choice: statehood, independence or status quo with no one option getting a majority. Many of these referendums were boycotted by the supporters of one or more of the options. November's referendum was the first to be a simple yes/no to statehood (yes got 52.5%, no 47.5%) with a decent turnout (54.7%, close to the 55% turnout in the simultaneous Puerto Rico general election).
Congress can admit a new state with a simple Joint Resolution of both houses (the other way Congress can make law other than passing a full Act). Like an Act, a JR requires Presidential assent, or a 2/3 override by both Houses. However, in practice it's a bit more complicated than that: usually in the past Congress has first passed an Organizing Act authorizing and requiring the putative state to draw up a constitution for itself and this needs to be adopted by a referendum of the new state's voters and approved by Congress before the JR admitting it to the Union. In Puerto Rico's case, it already has a constitution that has been adopted by its electorate and approved by Congress. Most likely it might require some amendment to be an actual state constitution, but it would seem that Congress could probably go straight to an admitting resolution in the case of PR. The precedent would be Vermont, which had already adopted a constitution as an independent republic although it did adopt a new constitution in 1793, two years after joining the Union, which is still in effect today.
DC statehood would certainly require more than a simple Act or JR of Admission: the District does not have a formal constitution, it's current quasi-municipal government was established by Act of Congress. The US Constitution requires the establishment of a federal district, which is why the proposals for DC statehood always include redrawing the federal district to a rump containing the main federal buildings. Unfortunately, the really big fly in the ointment is the 23rd Amendment which grants the federal district as many Electoral College votes as the least populous states (currently three). Repealing this amendment would need a full 2/3 majority of both Houses and ratification by 3/4 of the states. If it's not repealed, then as things stand, the only remaining inhabitants of the federal district, i.e. the incumbent First Family, would have the power to choose three Electoral College members all by themselves!
However, the 23rd does state that Congress can legislate to establish the manner by which the District appoints its Electoral College members, so any bill to organize for DC statehood could include provisions to reform that; perhaps the obvious solution would be for the District's electors to be assigned to whoever wins a majority of the states' electoral votes
California 65
Texas 44
New York 34
Florida 33
Illinois 22
Pennsylvania 22
Ohio 20
Michigan 17
Georgia 17
North Carolina 17
New Jersey 15
Virginia 14
Washington 12
Massachusetts 11
Indiana 11
Arizona 11
Tennessee 11
Missouri 11
Maryland 10
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 9
Colorado 9
Alabama 8
South Carolina 8
Louisiana 8
Kentucky 8
Oregon 7
Oklahoma 7
Connecticut 6
Iowa 5
Mississippi 5
Arkansas 5
Kansas 5
Utah 5
Nevada 5
New Mexico 4
West Virginia 3
Nebraska 3
Idaho 3
Hawaii 2
Maine 2
New Hampshire 2
Rhode Island 2
Montana 2
Delaware 2
South Dakota 1
Alaska 1
North Dakota 1
Vermont 1
District of Columbia 1
Wyoming 1
TOTAL 5382 -
It’s a pity that Boris Johnson isn’t visiting today, for Burns Night. The following would be apt.
“ Ye see yon birkie ca’d a lord,
Wha struts, an’ stares, an’ a’ that,
Tho’ hundreds worship at his word,
He’s but a coof for a’ that.
For a’ that, an’ a’ that,
His ribband, star, an’ a’ that,
The man o’ independent mind,
He looks an’ laughs at a’ that.”
The Fairliered household will be watching the Big Burns Supper tonight. Hope it’s ok to post a link in case any of you are interested.
http://bigburnssupper.com/
1 -
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.0 -
Ooh, you were close! Kurz (Kurtz is from Heart Of Darkness), became Chancellor at 31kle4 said:
Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.TrèsDifficile said:
I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?slade said:
Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.1 -
Wise if the contest is in the next couple of years at least. After that, it might open up.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
Truss has had a good Brexit. Getting Things Done might not be a bad USP....2 -
It will certainly be an unpleasant surprise, and very unusual medically, if the vaccine doesn't reduce the spread of infection. Other vaccines like polio or measles have greatly reduced the spread of those diseases.kinabalu said:
It's not proven the vaccine reduces infection and thus spread, since the trials didn't test for this and it's too early in the rollout for it to show up, nevertheless in theory it should and the subject matter experts are confident it will. So it will be an unpleasant surprise if it doesn't. That's my understanding on this.turbotubbs said:
We will have the answers in time, but we are barely a month or so into a vaccination program, with a country in lockdown, and notably, most of those who have been vaccinated, likely to be shielding (effectively or actually). I think most scientists will expect the level of transmission to drop significantly. Essentially if the virus cannot take hold in the body, it cannot replicate to provide the source for new infections. However, most clinical trials have not specifically looked for proof of this, rather they have focussed on preventing illness in those vaccinated.DavidL said:
So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.Andy_Cooke said:
That is an explicitly untrue statement.TOPPING said:
Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.Philip_Thompson said:
It will need a change in the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.Leon said:
That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.CarlottaVance said:
Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.Leon said:A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.
It really is impressive.
As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.
Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.
Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
Have patience.1 -
There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.kinabalu said:
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.2 -
Yes.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.
Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.1 -
Just bung him a peerage. Aprobation, elevation, castration.MarqueeMark said:
There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.kinabalu said:
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.1 -
Whew - Boris would have had no chance against such sick Burns...Fairliered said:It’s a pity that Boris Johnson isn’t visiting today, for Burns Night. The following would be apt.
“ Ye see yon birkie ca’d a lord,
Wha struts, an’ stares, an’ a’ that,
Tho’ hundreds worship at his word,
He’s but a coof for a’ that.
For a’ that, an’ a’ that,
His ribband, star, an’ a’ that,
The man o’ independent mind,
He looks an’ laughs at a’ that.”
The Fairliered household will be watching the Big Burns Supper tonight. Hope it’s ok to post a link in case any of you are interested.
http://bigburnssupper.com/1 -
Yes, but Covid-19 is a bit unusual in being so infectious before the appearance of symptoms. I would be surprised if there's no reduction in spread at all, but I wouldn't be surprised if the reduction is relatively modest (though IANAE, of course, and I hope I'm wrong on the latter point).anothernick said:
It will certainly be an unpleasant surprise, and very unusual medically, if the vaccine doesn't reduce the spread of infection. Other vaccines like polio or measles have greatly reduced the spread of those diseases.0 -
If it gets him out of the Cabinet then I can live with that.RobD said:
Just bung him a peerage. Aprobation, elevation, castration.MarqueeMark said:
There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.kinabalu said:
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.0 -
You mean that one where the Leader of the Opposition said "Me too! I want to own it as well...."?Philip_Thompson said:
That was a separate issue, that was regarding the NI scheme (agreed ultimately with Gove) and the IM Bill - it was a different matter to the UK/NI scheme. And no the EU didn't agree to the UK's demands regarding the NI scheme until long after the IM Bill was introduced and the trusted trader schemes accepted by the EU ultimately are nothing like Barnier was talking about if you understand the details.williamglenn said:
You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.Philip_Thompson said:
Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.IshmaelZ said:
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.
I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.
So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
Regarding the UK/EU trade deal the EU was entirely disingenuous saying to Theresa May the UK couldn't have what she was asking for and instead saying a Canada style deal (which she didn't want) then bait-and-switch saying after Boris Johnson said he only wanted a Canada style deal that it wasn't available.
On all of the core fundamental disputes left at the end the UK got its principles through. We agreed a good, clean Canada style deal in the end. The UK got what we were seeking - you may think its shit, but if its shit blame the government because the government got what it was asking for.
The government owns this deal completely now.2 -
Yes, one of the few who looks and sounds even more stupid than Johnsonkinabalu said:
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.1 -
The next PBer who refers to Scots as Scotch instead of Scottish goes straight to ConHome for a month.Malmesbury said:
Perhaps we should scotch the scotching of the Scotch?Fairliered said:
Apart from certain PBers who would like to scotch the Scotch?Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:
Scotch is a bloody drink, ffs.0 -
You're only making things worse, Philip. When I said "choose dignity", that was genuine and well meant advice, not an attempt to put down and patronize. The deal is a good one from the viewpoint of a hard leaver such as yourself. You should be pleased with the outcome. Just bank that. There's no need to gild it by making out you have, or have ever had, the slightest clue what you're talking about.Philip_Thompson said:
Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.IshmaelZ said:
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.
I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.
So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.0 -
Theresa May couldn't convince her own party to back her deal.MarqueeMark said:
You mean that one where the Leader of the Opposition said "Me too! I want to own it as well...."?Philip_Thompson said:
That was a separate issue, that was regarding the NI scheme (agreed ultimately with Gove) and the IM Bill - it was a different matter to the UK/NI scheme. And no the EU didn't agree to the UK's demands regarding the NI scheme until long after the IM Bill was introduced and the trusted trader schemes accepted by the EU ultimately are nothing like Barnier was talking about if you understand the details.williamglenn said:
You appear to have missed the fact that the one concession you cited was actually achieved by Theresa May. I'm sure this is just an oversight and you are not seeking to mislead others and/or delude yourself.Philip_Thompson said:
Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.IshmaelZ said:
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.
I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.
So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
Regarding the UK/EU trade deal the EU was entirely disingenuous saying to Theresa May the UK couldn't have what she was asking for and instead saying a Canada style deal (which she didn't want) then bait-and-switch saying after Boris Johnson said he only wanted a Canada style deal that it wasn't available.
On all of the core fundamental disputes left at the end the UK got its principles through. We agreed a good, clean Canada style deal in the end. The UK got what we were seeking - you may think its shit, but if its shit blame the government because the government got what it was asking for.
The government owns this deal completely now.
Boris Johnson could convince the opposition to back his.
What a difference in talent.2 -
You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.
Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.0 -
Except for the fact that events transpired as I foresaw in 2018. Apart from that you mean?kinabalu said:
You're only making things worse, Philip. When I said "choose dignity", that was genuine and well meant advice, not an attempt to put down and patronize. The deal is a good one from the viewpoint of a hard leaver such as yourself. You should be pleased with the outcome. Just bank that. There's no need to gild it by making out you have, or have ever had, the slightest clue what you're talking about.Philip_Thompson said:
Nope. I did keep options open because while I thought the EU would compromise, I accepted that I could be wrong and they would refuse to do so leading to no deal. Thankfully I was right and they did compromise.IshmaelZ said:
Nope. You didn't have the bottle to call it either way in December, because you had to keep the option open of hailing No deal as a masterly Australian terms exit in which we were going to prosper mightily, yay for Boris. You sometimes predicted a deal, but not the shit one on EU terms which (as @kinabalu foresaw) was what we were going to get, and got.Philip_Thompson said:
Its our present reality.kinabalu said:
"Boris" will be hoping that most of his hardcore Leaver base also inhabit this alternative reality.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."
Can you see many as you gaze around?
Everything I predicted since Theresa May was PM has come to pass. Its a shame you lack the decency to say "well done" for sticking to my guns and calling it right. Oh well.
As for you claiming it is a "shit deal" - the elements that you think make it "shit" are there precisely because it was the EU that compromised not the UK on the fundamental principles. Kinabalu and others wrongly foresaw an EU designed Brexit that meant no real change - in which case there would be little "shit" from it.
I always predicted "teething issues". We have new trading arrangements and a genuine change in arrangements from what we had before - that is what the UK was seeking and what we have won. There will be teething issues of course, but we will get through them to the other side, just as I said and it will be with the UK's sought after "Canada style" trading agreement that the EU stubbornly didn't want to give to us - until they conceded at the last minute and did.
So I was right. Totally 100% right. I was worried I might be wrong, but I wasn't.
I told you so for years, then it happened.0 -
-
0
-
Funny I hear a lot of non-Tories doing that!Nigel_Foremain said:
You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.
Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
1 -
Burns Night. Am generally disinterested in poetry that isn't set to music, so Meh to Rabbie Burns. However, I am happy to partake in a Haggis Supper and a large dram. Can't get the Haggis supper down here as chippy doesn't do them, but will make up for it in a few weeks after navigating HYUFD's barbed wire and gun towers.0
-
They have proven that people who are infected and are vaccinated have much lower viral loads in their bodies. It would be a great surprise if that lower viral load did not correlate with lower infectiousness.kinabalu said:
It's not proven the vaccine reduces infection and thus spread, since the trials didn't test for this and it's too early in the rollout for it to show up, nevertheless in theory it should and the subject matter experts are confident it will. So it will be an unpleasant surprise if it doesn't. That's my understanding on this.turbotubbs said:
We will have the answers in time, but we are barely a month or so into a vaccination program, with a country in lockdown, and notably, most of those who have been vaccinated, likely to be shielding (effectively or actually). I think most scientists will expect the level of transmission to drop significantly. Essentially if the virus cannot take hold in the body, it cannot replicate to provide the source for new infections. However, most clinical trials have not specifically looked for proof of this, rather they have focussed on preventing illness in those vaccinated.DavidL said:
So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.Andy_Cooke said:
That is an explicitly untrue statement.TOPPING said:
Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.Philip_Thompson said:
It will need a change in the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.Leon said:
That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.CarlottaVance said:
Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.Leon said:A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.
It really is impressive.
As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.
Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.
Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
Have patience.
And there's another thing too: viruses make us sneeze and cough, because that's a really good way of getting us to spread them. If we're asymptomatic, and therefore not sneezing and coughing, we're probably not going to be as good at spreading the disease. (That doesn't mean there won't be some spread, of course, only that it will be less.)2 -
This what is happening regarding vaccinations in our area. Seven days a week but not 24 hours per day.
https://www.nhsaaa.net/news/latest-news/nhs-ayrshire-arran-s-mass-vaccination-programme/0 -
-
Define "not a Tory" please.Nigel_Foremain said:
You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.
Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
I've been a party member since 2004 onwards, voting for Cameron in 2005. Except for quitting the party when Theresa May was PM as her xenophobia and authoritarianism disgusted me and I wanted nothing to do with her.
I hold my head up high with that. If accepting xenophobia and authoritarianism from May is required to be a Tory then I wouldn't want to be a Tory.0 -
0
-
CV19 is (principally) a disease of the upper respiratory tract, which is a great place to go from if you want to spread. That early infectiousness (one would think) is when the disease is there, being blown out of your mouth and nose, and before it's spread to the rest of your body (and made you feel rubbish).Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but Covid-19 is a bit unusual in being so infectious before the appearance of symptoms. I would be surprised if there's no reduction in spread at all, but I wouldn't be surprised if the reduction is relatively modest (though IANAE, of course, and I hope I'm wrong on the latter point).anothernick said:
It will certainly be an unpleasant surprise, and very unusual medically, if the vaccine doesn't reduce the spread of infection. Other vaccines like polio or measles have greatly reduced the spread of those diseases.
The question, really, is whether the body recognises CV19 as a serious problem when it's still there, or if the immune response only kicks in when it spreads.
The nasal application of the AZN vaccine in monkeys suggests that you might be right. On the other hand, the measured viral shedding of vaccinated people is substantially lower (at least for the Pfizer vaccine).0 -
Exactly. He needs that and sadly it works. Just look at all the vitriol from the schools fiasco and compute how much of it is poured over the monkey (Williamson) as opposed to the organ grinder (Johnson). It's about 90/10 when it should be 10/90.Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, one of the few who looks and sounds even more stupid than Johnsonkinabalu said:
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.0 -
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=200 -
Why aren't they using the phone?CarlottaVance said:Blue envelopes.......
https://twitter.com/JeaneF1MSP/status/1353724112385007616?s=200 -
Surprised that Boris hasn’t yet referred to the SNP as the Scotch Nationalist Party at PMQs. If he does this week we will know he reads PB.Peter_the_Punter said:
The next PBer who refers to Scots as Scotch instead of Scottish goes straight to ConHome for a month.Malmesbury said:
Perhaps we should scotch the scotching of the Scotch?Fairliered said:
Apart from certain PBers who would like to scotch the Scotch?Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:
Scotch is a bloody drink, ffs.0 -
Or not.RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=201 -
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
I hope someone asks Hancock during "Hancock's Half Hour". "The EU have failed to secure supply, invested less than the UK, ordered later than the UK, now they are expecting to get some of the UK's supply - do you agree?0 -
And you are?Nigel_Foremain said:
You are not a Tory, so once again you are talking out of your backside.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.
Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
lol....2 -
He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.TOPPING said:
That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.
Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.
I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.
1 -
That'd be pretty outrageous if it happened.CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.0 -
It's not approved for the EU yet.CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=200 -
That’s weird, ‘cos for the past 25 days there’s been a constant stream of retweets saying that it’s almost impossible to ship anything from the UK to the EU at the moment!CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
Also funny for the MEP to seemingly not understand that AZ is not yet approved in the EU, nor that they don’t exactly have a problem selling everything they produce right now.4 -
They clearly want to stockpile it.Benpointer said:
It's not approved for the EU yet.CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=200 -
If they purloin our supply, will that be jeered or cheered by Remainiacs?CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.1 -
Oooooh. That's basically a declaration of war. They want Britain to give up doses, already in Britain, meant for Brits, so the Germans can have them, just because the EU fucked up their procurement programme?CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
I can hear the Guns of August.2 -
She is clearly an enhanced figure - albeit from a position of considerable flimsiness to start with. I haven't totally ruled her out of my calculus. For me, her chances are greater if the contest comes with the Cons in opposition having just lost an election.MarqueeMark said:
Wise if the contest is in the next couple of years at least. After that, it might open up.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
Truss has had a good Brexit. Getting Things Done might not be a bad USP....0 -
As I've said before I lost all remaining respect for Theresa May (I didn't have much left) in 2015. I was sat in the Conservative Party Conference as a party member* for this speech and it made my skin crawl. It was nasty, xenophobic and repellant. I went to Conferences for a couple of years and was actively campaigning for the party, this was the only one that disgusted rather than inspired me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E
Horrible and truly nasty.
* Why would a "non-Tory" be a Party Member sat at Party Conference? 🤔1 -
So he is suggesting that a vaccine which the EU27 can't yet legally use should be diverted from the UK, which is using it, and which ordered it first, and which invested in it?CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
Hmm..7 -
Rishi as PM, Truss as Chancellor would be my absolute dream team for next government after Boris moves on.Burgessian said:
He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.TOPPING said:
That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.
Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.
I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.1 -
Hancock is the kind of plausible chancer who might well get the leadership.TOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
0 -
To be fair, that would have been the general gist of the EU vaccine procurement program had the UK joined.Richard_Nabavi said:
So he is suggesting that a vaccine which the EU27 can't yet legally use should be diverted from the UK, which is using it, and which ordered it first, and which invested in it?CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
Hmm..1 -
You're a diehard something or other.TOPPING said:
That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
They don't want you back.0 -
I think Sunak's actions in opposing lockdowns and promoting policies now seen to have been, to say the least, unwise (EOTHO) will be brought out by those who wish him ill in any leadership contest. And he doesn't have much of a defence as far as I can see.Burgessian said:
He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.TOPPING said:
That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.
Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.
I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.0 -
Colonel @HYUFD may have to reposition his assets in preparation. There's now a bigger threat.Leon said:
Oooooh. That's basically a declaration of war. They want Britain to give up doses, already in Britain, meant for Brits, so the Germans can have them, just because the EU fucked up their procurement programme?CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
I can hear the Guns of August.0 -
You're not selling giving up half an hour of my life listening to it, then.Philip_Thompson said:As I've said before I lost all remaining respect for Theresa May (I didn't have much left) in 2015. I was sat in the Conservative Party Conference as a party member* for this speech and it made my skin crawl. It was nasty, xenophobic and repellant. I went to Conferences for a couple of years and was actively campaigning for the party, this was the only one that disgusted rather than inspired me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E
Horrible and truly nasty.
* Why would a "non-Tory" be a Party Member sat at Party Conference? 🤔1 -
Voted Remain but accepted the result and got behind Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.kinabalu said:
The grass roots are infected with Leave, though, aren't they? And Leave is not a virus you just shrug off because we've Left. So I'm not looking at Remainers for next Con Leader. Is that a bad call iyo?HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit delivered and no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
We've left. Anyone who fought or campaigned against that may struggle - and that could potentially include Hunt.
Those who voted Remain but accepted the results and have helped facilitate Leaving like Liz Truss, there's no reason whatsoever for them to struggle.
That's HYUFD to a tee! Is he rolling the pitch?1 -
Agreed, but the danger is that he’s at the peak of his popularity now, and only a few months away from having to announce a plan to start moving towards possibly thinking about the costs of the past year.Philip_Thompson said:
Rishi as PM, Truss as Chancellor would be my absolute dream team for next government after Boris moves on.Burgessian said:
He's very good but I don't see him returning as leader TBH. Would seem to much like a Theresa May re-run.TOPPING said:
That is a good point. Hunt might tempt me back to the Party.HYUFD said:
Hunt would likely run again, if Sunak was not now a contender he might even win next time with Brexit no longer an issue and Corbyn defeated and no moreTOPPING said:
I am on Hancock (now 36s bf) for next Cons leader.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
Rishi's fate will be in the hands of the extent of the furlough.
I'm not sure there are too many other candidates. Raab perhaps. Gove I can't see it.
I think it's Rishi's to lose really. He's popular across the country (including, vitally, Scotland), has that first-name schtick, gained credibility simply by being chancellor, and has an easy, likeable, "no-drama" personality.
Liz Truss would have first dibs as Chancellor.
I think Raab would be a presentational disaster.0 -
Just someone tell him where the border is......RobD said:
Colonel @HYUFD may have to reposition his assets in preparation. There's now a bigger threat.Leon said:
Oooooh. That's basically a declaration of war. They want Britain to give up doses, already in Britain, meant for Brits, so the Germans can have them, just because the EU fucked up their procurement programme?CarlottaVance said:
They are - but this German MEP is suggesting supply be diverted from the UK:RobD said:
I thought the EU doses were being manufactured in Europe?CarlottaVance said:EU gunning for UK vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353725799740944384?s=20
The flimsy justification that there are difficulties in the EU supply chain but not elsewhere does not hold water, as it is of course no problem to get the vaccine from the UK to the continent. The company cannot be interested in permanently damaging its reputation in the world's largest single market. Many in the company seem to be embarrassed by the matter. That's why I expect a change in the delivery plans for the EU in the next few hours, and an accelerated one at that.
I can hear the Guns of August.
0 -
Its a half hour I wouldn't mind getting back. Except for the fact it helped me foresee what a distaster Theresa May would be. No regrets at tearing up my membership when she was elected.IanB2 said:
You're not selling giving up half an hour of my life listening to it, then.Philip_Thompson said:As I've said before I lost all remaining respect for Theresa May (I didn't have much left) in 2015. I was sat in the Conservative Party Conference as a party member* for this speech and it made my skin crawl. It was nasty, xenophobic and repellant. I went to Conferences for a couple of years and was actively campaigning for the party, this was the only one that disgusted rather than inspired me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E
Horrible and truly nasty.
* Why would a "non-Tory" be a Party Member sat at Party Conference? 🤔0 -
It's an absorbing read that filing. I hadn't realised how much Giuliani was shilling products whilst lying about the election.Pulpstar said:Akiva Cohen, an excellent lawyer on the election - who was sceptical of Dominion's chances against Giuliani vis a vis malice (Which is a very steep hurdle in the US) thinks they've got enough to get to discovery.
https://twitter.com/AkivaMCohen/status/1353700641240186880
According to Dominion they were repeatedly accused of secreting being another company, who are in fact their competitor, too.0 -
Which is why I do expect Gav to be sacked before too long. If he isn't it would indicate something untoward at the heart of government. Or something else untoward at the heart of government rather.MarqueeMark said:
There comes a point at which they have collected so much deflected shit, if you don't push them overboard they will still sink the boat.kinabalu said:
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
What do they expect if they want to pinch our vaccines?
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1353730587350212608?s=200 -
30/90.kinabalu said:
Exactly. He needs that and sadly it works. Just look at all the vitriol from the schools fiasco and compute how much of it is poured over the monkey (Williamson) as opposed to the organ grinder (Johnson). It's about 90/10 when it should be 10/90.Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, one of the few who looks and sounds even more stupid than Johnsonkinabalu said:
A very useful shit deflector for Johnson, no?FrancisUrquhart said:
Williamson continued presence in the cabinet is more confusing than the way in which covid effects people in such drastically different ways.Stuartinromford said:Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Hancock is a worthy minister. Once this is over, he deserves some combination of promotion and time away from the trenches- Foreign Secretary is customary in that situation, is it not?Leon said:
Hancock has vastly improved. After a shaky start, admittedly.eek said:
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.
Williamson, oh dear.
Williamson wasn't worthy last time round. And he's not improved.
An excess of vitriol is not entirely unwarranted.1 -
Almost in their dotage. Baby Doc Duvalier was 19 when he took over from his father. San Marino has had 4 heads of government under 30 - the last one was last year.kle4 said:
Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.TrèsDifficile said:
I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?slade said:
Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.0 -
Well sure, but any young idiot can take over when they have the right genes in a pseudo monarchy.slade said:
Almost in their dotage. Baby Doc Duvalier was 19 when he took over from his father. San Marino has had 4 heads of government under 30 - the last one was last year.kle4 said:
Kurtz in Austria has been PM since he was 30 I believe, with a brief gap.TrèsDifficile said:
I hadn't, she's very nice looking too. But crazy young for a Prime Minister at 35!?slade said:
Have you seen Sanna Marin from Finland?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.
Though 19 year olds can work out - Look at Gaius Octavius.0 -
Tesco can refuse entry would be one idea thereMaxPB said:
That's a handy visualisation.eek said:
Just because the teachers are vaccinated that doesn't mean they can't infect others thoughSandpit said:
The kids passing it around between families was one issue, the other was the number of staff absent - either with the virus itself, or isolating having been in contact with someone sick.Philip_Thompson said:
How do you find out with any scientific certainty that they were the chains in transmission?DavidL said:
Roughly 2 weeks and several thousand were innoculated in December. Is there evidence of any of them having the virus (even without being ill) or being a link in a chain of transmission? It is so important.MaxPB said:
Because it takes weeks for them to become effective and then another few weeks for it to feed through into the actual case/hospital numbers. To see what effect the vaccinated numbers have today, you need to see how many people cumulatively had it 5 weeks ago, and that's still a pretty small number, even for us. Which is why all eyes are in Israel right now which was very fast out of the blocks compared to us.DavidL said:
So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.Andy_Cooke said:
That is an explicitly untrue statement.TOPPING said:
Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.Philip_Thompson said:
It will need a change in the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.Leon said:
That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.CarlottaVance said:
Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.Leon said:A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.
It really is impressive.
As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.
Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.
Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
Take schools for example. If we can be confident that teachers exposed to children who may well have the virus asymptomatically will not be infected and take it home to their families the arguments about reopening schools (once teachers have been vaccinated) becomes very different. I honestly don't think that there is a more important question out there at the moment. Possibly does any of the variations avoid the protection of vaccination ( a provisional no but watch this space carefully) but short of that.
Surely the issue with schools isn't teachers, it is children catching it asymptomatically and then taking it back to their families. That will happen even if teachers are vaccinated.
If we can exempt vaccinated school staff from having to isolate when not positive themselves, perhaps with regular testing, that will help keep the schools open.
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483423173521408
Granted it's going to be less of a problem but it's still a possible problem.
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