Is Biden going honour his commitment to make Washington DC a state in its own right? – politicalbett
Comments
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Some here:MarqueeMark said:
Have we seen on any data on how many people actually go a bit wobbly in that 15 minutes?eek said:
The 15 minute watch period that Pfizer requires adds complexity and limitations which will disappear as other vaccines become more available. .Sandpit said:
Thousands per week? I’d hope for tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands.Andy_JS said:"Northampton's new mass vaccination centre opens"
A new mass vaccination centre aimed at expanding the roll-out of the Covid-19 jab has opened in Northamptonshire. The NHS said the hub, based at Moulton Park in Northampton, could enable thousands of people to vaccinated each week. The centre will operate seven days a week from 08:00 to 20:00 GMT. Chief executive of Northamptonshire Clinical Commissioning Group, Toby Sanders, said it would create "significant extra capacity".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-55795328
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2775646?guestAccessKey=b5738d71-4ef0-48c0-9130-d675e62d1fa8&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=012121
There were 21 cases reported to the AmericAN CDC in the first week of vaccination. That works out to 11.1 cases per million or 0.001%.
- There were no deaths
- Roughly half had Brighton level 1 symptoms, the worst; the remainder were level 2.
- The most common symptoms were itching, rash, swelling, and a sense of “throat closure.”
- 81% were treated in hospital emergency departments (the typical treatment involves the immediate injection of epinephrine delivered at the vaccination centre)
- The median time of onset was 13 minutes, although the range was up to two hours.
- Roughly a third of those cases had a prior anaphylactic reaction, and 80% had previous allergic reactions to various allergens.
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I assume that’s the world’s 10 richest people who also happen to be men?bigjohnowls said:
Worlds richest 10 men have seen their wealth grow by 400bn in just 12 months. Enough to pay for the whole population of the world to be vaccinated apparentlyLeon said:
Covid literally kills almost twice as many men as women. But it is being "used by the patriarchy to exploit women"FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ, Oxfam has released a report on COVID..
It is full on all about the evils of Neoliberalism, patriarchy and white supremacy..
It has exploited and exacerbated entrenched systems of inequality and oppression, namely patriarchy and structural racism, ingrained in white supremacy. These systems are the root causes of injustice and poverty. They generate huge profits accumulated in the hands of a White patriarchal elite by exploiting people living in poverty, women and racialized and historically marginalized and oppressed communities around the world.
https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621149/bp-the-inequality-virus-250121-en.pdf
What has happened to our charities? Entirely captured by lunatics
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/covid-vaccine-richest-men-poverty-oxfam-b1791281.html0 -
You are talking about trade across the channel, as was this article. And you aren't exactly being consistent, first it was "total collapse", then 15%, now 33%.RochdalePioneers said:
No, its at 33% of trucks and unknown for vans. You aren't quoting numbers for the same thing I am talking about.RobD said:
I was contesting the "almost total collapse" claim. When it is in fact at 70% of normal numbers.Foxy said:
Pretty grim report to cite in defence!RobD said:
Down 29% on average - https://www.coastfm.co.uk/news/business/freight-traffic-slumps-and-costs-soar-asRochdalePioneers said:
Reported as 15% of previous. People posting from Euroshuttle trains that are almost entirely empty etc etc.RobD said:
Isn't it at 70% of previous? That's not a total collapse.RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed. Kent has largely been saved thanks to the almost total collapse of trade across the channel. Hurrah!DougSeal said:There is no surge in "al fresco defacation" here in Kent. We have been quite relieved (no pun intended) TBH. That is because the expecation we were given was of complee gridlock but what we have ended up with is not anywhere near that. That may change but the increase in people releiving themselves on the M20 has not happened (yet). There is a new lorry park but mostly Manston Airport has been repurposed.
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One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:0 -
It's an archaic term, but is it actually a mix up? What does 'Scotch' actually mean that's different to Scottish?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:
Tangent, but it makes me smile when I see references to 'Scotch' meaning 'parsimonious' in films - there was one in North by Northwest when I saw that the other week 'Don't be so Scotch!'0 -
They really don’t want to have to use the British one. Especially not when there’s a French one in the pipeline.felix said:
What is even funnier is that the EU has not yet authorised AZN so any delay is somewhat moot!FrancisUrquhart said:
HOOOOKK HOOOOOOOK.....in the traffic jam.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Macmillan is a very good suggestion, it's exactly the sort of practical question that they provide support for.DavidL said:
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/cancer-information-and-support/impacts-of-cancer/benefits-and-financial-support/universal-creditGardenwalker said:Quick appeal to wisdom of the PB crowd.
Can you still receive universal credit while receiving chemotherapy for cancer treatment?
My young friend - who has just received a cancer diagnosis - believes you cannot as you are no longer “looking for work”.
Macmillan are good at this sort of stuff. When my mum had cancer they made sure she was aware of various extra benefits she could get including living support which paid for cleaners to come and help her keep house. She chose not to claim any money but she did find the support helpful as time went by and things became more of an effort.0 -
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:0 -
+1 on thisDavidL said:
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/cancer-information-and-support/impacts-of-cancer/benefits-and-financial-support/universal-creditGardenwalker said:Quick appeal to wisdom of the PB crowd.
Can you still receive universal credit while receiving chemotherapy for cancer treatment?
My young friend - who has just received a cancer diagnosis - believes you cannot as you are no longer “looking for work”.
Macmillan are good at this sort of stuff. When my mum had cancer they made sure she was aware of various extra benefits she could get including living support which paid for cleaners to come and help her keep house. She chose not to claim any money but she did find the support helpful as time went by and things became more of an effort.
I fought a bit of a battle with my mother - she refused to claim, until I convinced her. Then admitted later that it had been a good idea.0 -
Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:0 -
Also it is the one with the worst protection levels.Sandpit said:
They really don’t want to have to use the British one. Especially not when there’s a French one in the pipeline.felix said:
What is even funnier is that the EU has not yet authorised AZN so any delay is somewhat moot!FrancisUrquhart said:
HOOOOKK HOOOOOOOK.....in the traffic jam.CarlottaVance said:
So the corner stone of our plans0 -
Or, in the real world, about a quarter of the entire portfolio.bigjohnowls said:
Also it is the one with the worst protection levels.Sandpit said:
They really don’t want to have to use the British one. Especially not when there’s a French one in the pipeline.felix said:
What is even funnier is that the EU has not yet authorised AZN so any delay is somewhat moot!FrancisUrquhart said:
HOOOOKK HOOOOOOOK.....in the traffic jam.CarlottaVance said:
So the corner stone of our plans5 -
But why was it the case with Corbyn PRE Brexit? That is my point. If Brussels not Westminster was calling the shots before we escaped its clutches, how come the prospect of a Left Labour government was so scary to so many? Could it just possibly be because Brussels was NOT calling the shots?HYUFD said:
That would have been the case if Corbyn was still Labour leader post Brexit, less so now Starmer is Labour leaderkinabalu said:
Well if we're now sovereign whereas before we were ruled by Brussels I look forward to general elections where Conservative voters are truly worried by what Labour might do if they get in. Because this has not been the case for a while. Certainly in 17 and 19 it wasn't.Philip_Thompson said:
Of course it is.kinabalu said:
The Leaver view is that the EU was - is - on a path towards political union of such scope and completeness that our membership would in due course become incompatible with the very existence of the UK as a nation state. It was therefore essential to bail out now while we still can. Leave it much longer and we'd have been trapped in a train hurtling down a one way track to just one destination. A United States Of Europe.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
Exciting stuff.
You can't long-term have federal powers without federal accountability and federal decision making.
That you do is not a good thing, it is a bad one. Mr Nabavi seems to be waving around an absence of accountability as a "strength" rather than a weakness.
Any case, you're not a Leaver, so I imagine you get my point completely and didn't need this clarifier.0 -
The anthem would have been so much better had it been "rebellious Scots to Scotch".TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:
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On topic both DC and PR should of course be made states.
It is unconscionable to deny democracy to nearly 4 million citizens across those territories.
Deadline realistically is to get them states before the end of next year, but before the end of this years so they could hold elections next year is ideal.1 -
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=21
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I know, but it may be pertinent to the referendum debate. Once it gets totally scotched.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:1 -
If you trash the FTPA, as planned, there is no such thing as "midterm".Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:0 -
"Across the channel" is Dover - Calais. The tunnel and ferries. Thats what I am talking about. You responded with figures which included Ireland and the Netherlands.RobD said:
You are talking about trade across the channel, as was this article. And you aren't exactly being consistent, first it was "total collapse", then 15%, now 33%.RochdalePioneers said:
No, its at 33% of trucks and unknown for vans. You aren't quoting numbers for the same thing I am talking about.RobD said:
I was contesting the "almost total collapse" claim. When it is in fact at 70% of normal numbers.Foxy said:
Pretty grim report to cite in defence!RobD said:
Down 29% on average - https://www.coastfm.co.uk/news/business/freight-traffic-slumps-and-costs-soar-asRochdalePioneers said:
Reported as 15% of previous. People posting from Euroshuttle trains that are almost entirely empty etc etc.RobD said:
Isn't it at 70% of previous? That's not a total collapse.RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed. Kent has largely been saved thanks to the almost total collapse of trade across the channel. Hurrah!DougSeal said:There is no surge in "al fresco defacation" here in Kent. We have been quite relieved (no pun intended) TBH. That is because the expecation we were given was of complee gridlock but what we have ended up with is not anywhere near that. That may change but the increase in people releiving themselves on the M20 has not happened (yet). There is a new lorry park but mostly Manston Airport has been repurposed.
I quoted "overall traffic" as being at c. 15%. The RHA quote "truck traffic" as being c. 33%. There is no figure for van traffic, but van couriers report - as an example "just 3 vans" on a daytime shuttle train.
I am unsure as to the argument you are making. Even if your 70% figure was relevant to this discussion - and it isn't - you're trying to present a mere 30% drop in trade as a success.1 -
You don't need to suspect. That's what she says.Leon said:
I suspect "being 35" is partly a factor in her growing reluctance, to be ungallantFrancisUrquhart said:Keira Knightley has said she will not appear in nude scenes for films that have a male director.
Speaking to the Chanel Connects podcast, the actress said: "I don't have an absolute ban [on filming nude scenes], but I kind of do with men.
"It's partly vanity and also it's the male gaze," the 35-year-old explained.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-55795237
What happens if her opposite in such a scene has a no female director policy?0 -
Yeah but I don't drink that much. Hic!TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:1 -
And besides which Malc was suggesting that Shagger would use that kind of language, being from the @HYUFD school of xenophobic diplomacy.DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:1 -
Your post is just a tad misleading, and worth commenting on in case anyone takes it seriously.bigjohnowls said:Also it is the one with the worst protection levels.
So the corner stone of our plans
It depends on what you are measuring, in terms of preventing severe illness there isn't much to choose between them. In terms of efficacy there is a bit of evidence from the Indian trials that points to similarly high efficacy with a longer gap between doses. In terms of availability of vaccine and practicality the Oxford AstraZenaca jab is best option available today.
So if you were given the job today of saving the most lives possible over the next few months you would choose the Oxford jab.
1 -
Though you could also turn the question on its head and ask why Corbyn was a livelong Leaver if his policies could all have been enacted within the EU.kinabalu said:
But why was it the case with Corbyn PRE Brexit? That is my point. If Brussels not Westminster was calling the shots before we escaped its clutches, how come the prospect of a Left Labour government was so scary to so many? Could it just possibly be because Brussels was NOT calling the shots?HYUFD said:
That would have been the case if Corbyn was still Labour leader post Brexit, less so now Starmer is Labour leaderkinabalu said:
Well if we're now sovereign whereas before we were ruled by Brussels I look forward to general elections where Conservative voters are truly worried by what Labour might do if they get in. Because this has not been the case for a while. Certainly in 17 and 19 it wasn't.Philip_Thompson said:
Of course it is.kinabalu said:
The Leaver view is that the EU was - is - on a path towards political union of such scope and completeness that our membership would in due course become incompatible with the very existence of the UK as a nation state. It was therefore essential to bail out now while we still can. Leave it much longer and we'd have been trapped in a train hurtling down a one way track to just one destination. A United States Of Europe.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
Exciting stuff.
You can't long-term have federal powers without federal accountability and federal decision making.
That you do is not a good thing, it is a bad one. Mr Nabavi seems to be waving around an absence of accountability as a "strength" rather than a weakness.
Any case, you're not a Leaver, so I imagine you get my point completely and didn't need this clarifier.0 -
Thanks all.Malmesbury said:
+1 on thisDavidL said:
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/cancer-information-and-support/impacts-of-cancer/benefits-and-financial-support/universal-creditGardenwalker said:Quick appeal to wisdom of the PB crowd.
Can you still receive universal credit while receiving chemotherapy for cancer treatment?
My young friend - who has just received a cancer diagnosis - believes you cannot as you are no longer “looking for work”.
Macmillan are good at this sort of stuff. When my mum had cancer they made sure she was aware of various extra benefits she could get including living support which paid for cleaners to come and help her keep house. She chose not to claim any money but she did find the support helpful as time went by and things became more of an effort.
I fought a bit of a battle with my mother - she refused to claim, until I convinced her. Then admitted later that it had been a good idea.0 -
Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.0 -
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What's this "Mylastrollo" thing - is she pretending to be Welsh?Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=210 -
Midterm is anything outside of an official election campaign. Most people don't properly engage until there is something to engage with, so it's effectively just an approval poll on government performance.No_Offence_Alan said:
If you trash the FTPA, as planned, there is no such thing as "midterm".Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:0 -
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.2 -
I think they are instructive on the popularity contest and Starmer is flunking it. He should be at least 7 or 8 points ahead of the government by now. What that points to is that Starmer is not winning people over despite the abject government performance.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:0 -
Sure, but will her Cabinet be full of old Estonians?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.10 -
Interesting - reducing population on that scale is a hard core deep Green policy.MattW said:
What's this "Mylastrollo" thing - is she pretending to be Welsh?Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=210 -
I think they should qualify for much more generous health related benefits available to them now that they are deemed as incapable of working.Gardenwalker said:Quick appeal to wisdom of the PB crowd.
Can you still receive universal credit while receiving chemotherapy for cancer treatment?
My young friend - who has just received a cancer diagnosis - believes you cannot as you are no longer “looking for work”.0 -
The only question with PR is whether they want to be a state - the majority for it looks pretty narrow and is based on a small part of the electorate.Philip_Thompson said:On topic both DC and PR should of course be made states.
It is unconscionable to deny democracy to nearly 4 million citizens across those territories.
Deadline realistically is to get them states before the end of next year, but before the end of this years so they could hold elections next year is ideal.
There are definite and real concerns that if they become a state, the economy will be crushed and big money from the mainland US will come in and take the place over.0 -
She doesn't know how to spell Rolo? My Last Rolo - do you love anyone enough?MattW said:
What's this "Mylastrollo" thing - is she pretending to be Welsh?Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=211 -
Has the verb ‘scotch’ ever meant ‘crush’? Seems a somewhat exaggerated interpretation.TrèsDifficile said:
I know, but it may be pertinent to the referendum debate. Once it gets totally scotched.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:0 -
Palpable bollox and also rather churlish. You once did a great call, Sunak at a massive price for next Con leader, and I was pleased to acknowledge it and congratulate you. Here, I did a great contra-consensus call, based on a particular and since proven accurate assessment of the PR and politics of the Brexit deal, whereas you just hedged around and spouted softhead Johnson spin.Philip_Thompson said:
You're wrong. I said I expected the EU would move if we held firm. I have said that consistently since Theresa May was PM and I was right. So I am claiming kudos.IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
Kinabalu thought there'd be a deal because the UK would move. I thought there'd be a deal because the EU would move. The EU moved. I was right.0 -
scotchTheuniondivvie said:
Has the verb ‘scotch’ ever meant ‘crush’? Seems a somewhat exaggerated interpretation.TrèsDifficile said:
I know, but it may be pertinent to the referendum debate. Once it gets totally scotched.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:
in British English
(skɒtʃ )
VERB (transitive)
1. to put an end to; crush
bad weather scotched our plans
2. archaic
to injure so as to render harmless
3. obsolete
to cut or score
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/scotch
According to a dictionary, yes.0 -
I remember when anybody pointed out something Bercow's wife had said, it was immediately shot down that you can't and shouldn't infer anything about Bercow positions on things like Brexit from the deluded ramblings of his wife.Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=213 -
PB government supporters on here today are on cracking form:
Making international comparisons about death rates is a very bad thing to do at this stage of the pandemic.
Making international comparisons about vaccination rates is a very good thing to do at this stage of the pandemic.5 -
Well, half women, and of course the President is also a woman... A Liberal/Liberal coalition. So, all in all its been a great week... the far right chucked out and unlikely ever to return, and a new competent administration in place. Kaja is not only bonnie, but bright too.BluestBlue said:
Sure, but will her Cabinet be full of old Estonians?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.
0 -
Is this 'fully' complying (as in the 60%) or are some doing what I did - mostly stayed at home bar 4 walks in the 10 days with the dog, in the middle of nowhere? Technically I broke the quarantine, but never met anyone (at least no closer than 5 metres).FrancisUrquhart said:Less than 60% of people advised to isolate because of Covid-19 are doing so, according to the head of NHS Test and Trace.
0 -
The headline of the article you quoted was indeed hyperbole. We simply do not yet know whether this variant is more infectious than others. Let alone 'the most infectious yet'.Leon said:
But it isn't hyperbole. It's a serious possibility that new variants will emerge which will resist the vaccine. So then we tweak the vaccine, which takes a few months, then it happens again, and so on. Like a dog chasing its tailDougSeal said:<
Viruses mutate. It is what they do. This is not news. There are likely mutations in every corner of the globe but only those countries with sequencing can detect them. The second wave of the 1918-20 pandemic was likely caused by one. But in California, as with SA and the UK, deaths are reaching a plateu and cases are falling (or at least levelling off) - indeed in Kent, our varient's ground zero, deaths clearly falling.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
I'm no denier. This is a bitch of a virus, deadly, I fully support whatever it takes to supress it, and beating it will be a long hard haul yet - but the hyperbole is really really unhelpful.
Spotlighting this real possibility is not hyperbole, or doom-porn, or whatever*
Note that I also report all the good news: like my friend in PG4 being vaxxed Wedenesday
*OK the phrase "The Satan Bug" is doom porn but it was one of my favourite movies as a kid
I seem to recall at least one other poster who shared your movie preference.0 -
Wkhen I despair of one, I reach for the other.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:1 -
Doesnt seem likely.HYUFD said:
Our vaccination programme and France's lack of an effective one however means France could soon overtake us on both overall deaths and deaths per head.Gardenwalker said:There is surprisingly little backlash that we have (essentially) the highest number of deaths in the world.
While Britain was always going to be hard-hit for factors beyond our control, poor leadership and execution has played its part.
This is not hindsight, either.
With the exception of the care homes debacle earlier this year, most of the governments failures have been anticipated on this Board.
That we have a world-leading vaccination programme does not obscure these facts.0 -
Some countries have already found tens of thousands of deaths down of the back of the sofa and sneaked them into their figures later. Would any country be downplaying the number they had vaccinated?Northern_Al said:PB government supporters on here today are on cracking form:
Making international comparisons about death rates is a very bad thing to do at this stage of the pandemic.
Making international comparisons about vaccination rates is a very good thing to do at this stage of the pandemic.3 -
He is an inspiration. If at first you don't succeed, fail, fail and fail again. He never gives up. And there doesn't even look to be a decent meal on his target.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.2 -
@Philip_Thompson - Could you explain how threatening to break international law with the Internal Markets Bill avoided trade disruption between NI and GB? What did the EU back down on?0
-
Previous research has shown that people usually break it by just giving up on it and returning to normal after a few days because they feel ok rather than sit out the whole period, or worse, pop down the shops because they are out of their favourite food.turbotubbs said:
Is this 'fully' complying (as in the 60%) or are some doing what I did - mostly stayed at home bar 4 walks in the 10 days with the dog, in the middle of nowhere? Technically I broke the quarantine, but never met anyone (at least no closer than 5 metres).FrancisUrquhart said:Less than 60% of people advised to isolate because of Covid-19 are doing so, according to the head of NHS Test and Trace.
0 -
"We have scotch'd the snake, not kill'd it." (The Scotch Play).Theuniondivvie said:
Has the verb ‘scotch’ ever meant ‘crush’? Seems a somewhat exaggerated interpretation.TrèsDifficile said:
I know, but it may be pertinent to the referendum debate. Once it gets totally scotched.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but that's a different thing completely - it's not pertinent to the Scottish vs. Scotch debate.TrèsDifficile said:
One also means "put an end to" or "crush"DavidL said:
One is the drink and the other does the drinking. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It fascinates me how many SNP supporters get Scotch and Scots mixed upTheuniondivvie said:
Let’s hope no evil Nats reveal his whereabouts, don’t want his security threatened by having to meet actual Scotch people.Scott_xP said:
And indeed "Room for six scotches more" (Ant n Cleo), not meaning what you'd think.0 -
0
-
Brazil began its national vaccination programme a week ago, but there are already reports of serious problems in the roll-out.
Scientists say the country is close to running out of vaccine, syringes and other vital equipment, and they blame Jair Bolsonaro's government for the shortcomings.
----
What a disaster Brazil is. One of highest rates of COVID, in some places not even a prospect of a hospital bed, so relatives queue for oxygen tanks to take home and administer to their relatives themselves and now can't even roll out their vaccination programme.0 -
Not sure. People are scared right now. Hold on to nurse, and all that.MaxPB said:
I think they are instructive on the popularity contest and Starmer is flunking it. He should be at least 7 or 8 points ahead of the government by now. What that points to is that Starmer is not winning people over despite the abject government performance.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
These are hardly "normal" times. That said I yield to no one in my estimation that he has flunked his duty as Leader of the Opposition to actually oppose the government.1 -
Hey, at least we're inconsistent!Northern_Al said:PB government supporters on here today are on cracking form:
Making international comparisons about death rates is a very bad thing to do at this stage of the pandemic.
Making international comparisons about vaccination rates is a very good thing to do at this stage of the pandemic. 2 -
Harold Macmillan is said to have once complained that Mrs T's cabinet had more Estonians than Etonians.BluestBlue said:
Sure, but will her Cabinet be full of old Estonians?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.0 -
As on the other PB very few people know the dark arts (of html).mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.1 -
Coronavirus vaccinations are not going to be made compulsory in Wales, the health minister says.
"We won't be changing the law to try to make vaccinations compulsory, that isn't a step we are going to take," Vaughan Gething told a press briefing.
But he said "other services" may make having the vaccine a requirement.
"Those are questions for the future that individual business, employers and other sectors may want to have but not matters for the government," he says.
----------
The NHS?0 -
That is certainly very apparent at my missus's workplace. Her colleagues, the majority of whom are female, are all highly educated professional scientists doing important work for the NHS. Nevertheless, staffing is currently a nightmare since it is usually they, rather than their menfolk, who are having to take time off to care for and school the kids. Funnily enough, non of her male colleagues has had to take time off - their wives are looking after the kids!eek said:
The argument is that even though men and women are working from home, it's women who are doing the majority of the keeping children occupied tasksLeon said:
Covid literally kills almost twice as many men as women. But it is being "used by the patriarchy to exploit women"FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ, Oxfam has released a report on COVID..
It is full on all about the evils of Neoliberalism, patriarchy and white supremacy..
It has exploited and exacerbated entrenched systems of inequality and oppression, namely patriarchy and structural racism, ingrained in white supremacy. These systems are the root causes of injustice and poverty. They generate huge profits accumulated in the hands of a White patriarchal elite by exploiting people living in poverty, women and racialized and historically marginalized and oppressed communities around the world.
https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621149/bp-the-inequality-virus-250121-en.pdf
What has happened to our charities? Entirely captured by lunatics0 -
A clear and unambiguous majority: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendumMalmesbury said:
The only question with PR is whether they want to be a state - the majority for it looks pretty narrow and is based on a small part of the electorate.Philip_Thompson said:On topic both DC and PR should of course be made states.
It is unconscionable to deny democracy to nearly 4 million citizens across those territories.
Deadline realistically is to get them states before the end of next year, but before the end of this years so they could hold elections next year is ideal.
There are definite and real concerns that if they become a state, the economy will be crushed and big money from the mainland US will come in and take the place over.
Those who had concerns could vote No. No lost.1 -
.
'Were'.williamglenn said:2 -
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.0 -
There is always going to be some misses. So far I think we have been very lucky how many hits there have been in the first attempts.Nigelb said:0 -
That was indeed what I was riffing on.Stuartinromford said:
Harold Macmillan is said to have once complained that Mrs T's cabinet had more Estonians than Etonians.BluestBlue said:
Sure, but will her Cabinet be full of old Estonians?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.1 -
It's just as well that we (with a few exceptions) didn't have any qualms about using the German one.Sandpit said:
They really don’t want to have to use the British one. Especially not when there’s a French one in the pipeline.felix said:
What is even funnier is that the EU has not yet authorised AZN so any delay is somewhat moot!FrancisUrquhart said:
HOOOOKK HOOOOOOOK.....in the traffic jam.CarlottaVance said:0 -
If you’re a fan of the ‘Greens are hypocrites’ meme, a bloke who squirted out 6 sprogs (who are well on their way to producing a rugby team) going on about population reduction would certainly fit.Malmesbury said:
Interesting - reducing population on that scale is a hard core deep Green policy.MattW said:
What's this "Mylastrollo" thing - is she pretending to be Welsh?Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=21
‘I want the world to be a better place for my DNA.’0 -
The EU finally agreed to trusted trader schemes the UK had been proposing for five years as a solution.williamglenn said:@Philip_Thompson - Could you explain how threatening to break international law with the Internal Markets Bill avoided trade disruption between NI and GB? What did the EU back down on?
3 -
Or a reference to King Rollo? Unusual second name she has, too. I wonder how it's pronounced?TrèsDifficile said:
She doesn't know how to spell Rolo? My Last Rolo - do you love anyone enough?MattW said:
What's this "Mylastrollo" thing - is she pretending to be Welsh?Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=210 -
The 54% turnout is a concern - the best suggestion I've heard is to put together a package to deal with the economic issues and hold a final vote on that.Philip_Thompson said:
A clear and unambiguous majority: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendumMalmesbury said:
The only question with PR is whether they want to be a state - the majority for it looks pretty narrow and is based on a small part of the electorate.Philip_Thompson said:On topic both DC and PR should of course be made states.
It is unconscionable to deny democracy to nearly 4 million citizens across those territories.
Deadline realistically is to get them states before the end of next year, but before the end of this years so they could hold elections next year is ideal.
There are definite and real concerns that if they become a state, the economy will be crushed and big money from the mainland US will come in and take the place over.
Those who had concerns could vote No. No lost.0 -
Indeed and I can hold my head up high not only for predicting there would be a deal but also why there would be one too.kinabalu said:
Dignity, Philip. It's worth hanging on to, if you can.Philip_Thompson said:
You were right there would be a deal, but your logic why was wrong.kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
I also said there would be a deal but gave different logic.
I am one of the few people to consistently, since Theresa May was PM, have proposed the UK taking a hardline in talks and suggesting the EU would make moves so long as the UK held firm.
I was right. I was not just right last month, I was right for years and since Theresa May was PM. I hold my head up high in being able to say "I told you so."0 -
Pretty sure you wouldn’t have been one of the shooters down.FrancisUrquhart said:
I remember when anybody pointed out something Bercow's wife had said, it was immediately shot down that you can't and shouldn't infer anything about Bercow positions on things like Brexit from the deluded ramblings of his wife.Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=210 -
"Was" was fine. He made himself understood, and in some dialects "was" is the more common choice for this type of construction.Nigelb said:.
'Were'.williamglenn said:0 -
We have indeed been very lucky/successful so far.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is always going to be some misses. So far I think we have been very lucky how many hits there have been in the first attempts.Nigelb said:
J&J outcomes soon.1 -
That is an explicitly untrue statement.TOPPING said:
Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.Philip_Thompson said:
It will need a change in the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.Leon said:
That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.CarlottaVance said:
Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.Leon said:A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.
It really is impressive.
As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.
Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.
Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483415003062273
2 -
To really get the hypocrisy going, you have to fly into a country on a private jet to join a eco-demonstration, then complain that after calling for violent action, your private jet isn't cleared for use at a convenient, but military airfield just outside town...Theuniondivvie said:
If you’re a fan of the ‘Greens are hypocrites’ meme, a bloke who squirted out 6 sprogs (who are well on their way to producing a rugby team) going on about population reduction would certainly fit.Malmesbury said:
Interesting - reducing population on that scale is a hard core deep Green policy.MattW said:
What's this "Mylastrollo" thing - is she pretending to be Welsh?Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=21
‘I want the world to be a better place for my DNA.’1 -
I suspect Amy is a stickler for such things*, and he was asking for a job...Mary_Batty said:
"Was" was fine. He made himself understood, and in some dialects "was" is the more common choice for this type of construction.Nigelb said:.
'Were'.williamglenn said:
*Though surprisingly unconventional in her choice of eating utensils.0 -
Didn't Macmillan mean Jews?Stuartinromford said:
Harold Macmillan is said to have once complained that Mrs T's cabinet had more Estonians than Etonians.BluestBlue said:
Sure, but will her Cabinet be full of old Estonians?TrèsDifficile said:Did it get mentioned here that Estonia has a new PM?
I think she, Kaja Kallas, is the first Prime Minister of anywhere that I've found genuinely pleasant to look at.0 -
Yes, I thought she'd win easy. Also bet that way and lost a fair amount. But since then on the Big 3 events since, Brexit, GE19, WH20, it's been close to flawless.williamglenn said:
Did you predict a big Maybot majority?kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
Q for you. How likely iyo is a Sindy2 in 2022?0 -
Wile E Coyote reminds me of a few current Government Ministers (Hancock and Williamson in particular) who keep on going even though every single one of their plans is thwarted.mwadams said:
It's not often PB includes a pic of one of my heroes.eek said:
There is a bounce but I suspect it's more like thisanothernick said:
A few weeks ago we were assured that the Tories would get a Brexit bounce inn the polls. After that failed to materialise a vaccine bounce was predicted. So this poll is interesting in that it seems to show no sign of any bouncing.Anabobazina said:
Who gives a crap? Midterm polls are meaningless at best of times, in the middle a pandemic they are beyond meaningless. Why anyone pays the slightest attention is beyond me.HYUFD said:
with polls continuing as they are until reality suddenly hits.0 -
The UK was proposing them for NI-RoI trade. Barnier had already proposed them for NI-GB trade in 2018 in order to dedramatise the backstop. Try again.Philip_Thompson said:
The EU finally agreed to trusted trader schemes the UK had been proposing for five years as a solution.williamglenn said:@Philip_Thompson - Could you explain how threatening to break international law with the Internal Markets Bill avoided trade disruption between NI and GB? What did the EU back down on?
September 2018 - Michel Barnier eyes Irish border plan to unlock Brexit talks
https://www.ft.com/content/0f19f070-b829-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe
Under the proposal British officials would carry out limited checks at ports on the UK mainland to reassure Brussels that goods heading to Northern Ireland met single market rules. Checks could also be carried out on ferries or at factories on the mainland under “trusted trader” schemes.
1 -
54% turnout is almost exactly the same as the 1992, 2012 and 2016 US Presidential elections and higher than the 1996 and 2000 Presidential elections.Malmesbury said:
The 54% turnout is a concern - the best suggestion I've heard is to put together a package to deal with the economic issues and hold a final vote on that.Philip_Thompson said:
A clear and unambiguous majority: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendumMalmesbury said:
The only question with PR is whether they want to be a state - the majority for it looks pretty narrow and is based on a small part of the electorate.Philip_Thompson said:On topic both DC and PR should of course be made states.
It is unconscionable to deny democracy to nearly 4 million citizens across those territories.
Deadline realistically is to get them states before the end of next year, but before the end of this years so they could hold elections next year is ideal.
There are definite and real concerns that if they become a state, the economy will be crushed and big money from the mainland US will come in and take the place over.
Those who had concerns could vote No. No lost.
If you don't turnout you don't get a say. Though I'd have no objection if a definitive and final vote were held, I don't think its necessary but it is the precedent that happened in both Hawaii and Alaska so fair enough if that is the route taken so long as it is accepted.1 -
Tbf, I think the British are so used to imports that no one really cares that much where it's come from as long as it's passed safety checks and regulations. I'd take any of the three current approved jabs - UK, US or German/US. I haven't met anyone who specifically wants one or the other.FeersumEnjineeya said:
It's just as well that we (with a few exceptions) didn't have any qualms about using the German one.Sandpit said:
They really don’t want to have to use the British one. Especially not when there’s a French one in the pipeline.felix said:
What is even funnier is that the EU has not yet authorised AZN so any delay is somewhat moot!FrancisUrquhart said:
HOOOOKK HOOOOOOOK.....in the traffic jam.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Brexit wasn't since then.kinabalu said:
Yes, I thought she'd win easy. Also bet that way and lost a fair amount. But since then on the Big 3 events since, Brexit, GE19, WH20, it's been close to flawless.williamglenn said:
Did you predict a big Maybot majority?kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
Q for you. How likely iyo is a Sindy2 in 2022?0 -
So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.Andy_Cooke said:
That is an explicitly untrue statement.TOPPING said:
Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.Philip_Thompson said:
It will need a change in the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.Leon said:
That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.CarlottaVance said:
Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.Leon said:A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.
It really is impressive.
As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.
Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.
Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/13514834150030622730 -
Putin rejects Navalny claim that he owns palace on Black Sea
It never “belongs to or ever belonged to me or my close relatives. Ever,” Putin declared.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/navalny-protests-eu-to-consider-next-steps-after-russia-carries-out-mass-arrests
That of course isn't the claim in the video....its is owned by a Cypriot businessman.1 -
Because its something very difficult to test for. Correlation is not causation and its easier to test for whether someone is positive themselves than to test whether someone has infected somebody else.DavidL said:
So why the hell, with over 5m vaccinated in this country alone, do we not have a clear answer to this? It is absolutely critical to the extent that we can hope for normal life later this year.Andy_Cooke said:
That is an explicitly untrue statement.TOPPING said:
Having a jab doesn't stop you passing the virus on. Being asymptomatic helps not to pass the virus on.Philip_Thompson said:
It will need a change in the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
The government needs act in regards care homes and NHS front line. We can't have people who work in those settings turn a jab down.Leon said:
That might be because a lot of Londoners - especially BAME - are refusing the jabs. If so, that will become an issue over time.CarlottaVance said:
Ditto - two weeks ago. The London numbers seem odd, on the one hand relatively low totals, on the other anecdata of jabs going into Group 4.Leon said:A friend of mine in London, in Priority Group 4 (clinically extremely vulnerable) gets her first jab Wednesday.
It really is impressive.
As I've said before, there is a strong chance the jabs will become compulsory, de jure or de facto. HMG is putting money into vaccine passports
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/24/government-funds-eight-vaccine-passport-schemes-despite-no-plans/
Being compelled to take a vaccine can be a part of the job if it is a part of their terms and conditions of employment, but it is not for existing staff - and companies struggle to easily unilaterally change their terms and conditions of employment for people who've been working there for years and are on a contract that doesn't include that in their terms.
People are now happy to elide this for the moment but if you are talking legislation (O Mr Libertarian, btw)) then the nitty gritty will be reached pretty soon.
Which is that vaccine or no vaccine you don't want people coughing and sneezing in care homes. How to legislate that.
You are eliding "We do not have explicit proof as to the degree by which it does or does not stop people passing on the virus so we are being cautious" with a specific statement that it certainly doesn't.
Read this here from an experienced immunologist:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/13514834150030622731 -
Even that 50% effective Chinese one is better than nothing. We need to get as many jabs in as many arms as quickly as they can be manufactured and distributed.FeersumEnjineeya said:
It's just as well that we (with a few exceptions) didn't have any qualms about using the German one.Sandpit said:
They really don’t want to have to use the British one. Especially not when there’s a French one in the pipeline.felix said:
What is even funnier is that the EU has not yet authorised AZN so any delay is somewhat moot!FrancisUrquhart said:
HOOOOKK HOOOOOOOK.....in the traffic jam.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Czechs flocking to escape coronavirus restrictions with a day’s cross-country skiing or sledding in a national park have brought a surge of Covid infections to a tiny village, a local official said.
Modrava’s mayor, Antonin Schubert, said tests last week had identified 13 positive cases among the 90 people who live there, making the hamlet that sits in central Europe’s largest forest area, the Sumava national park, the most infected in the region.0 -
New York City “does not have enough doses” of Covid-19 vaccine to “be able to meet the demand we know exists among New Yorkers,” the city’s health commissioner Dave Chokshi told CNN on Monday.
Chokshi said the current supply, only a few thousand doses, will be used in the next 24 to 48 hours and that New York City.1 -
Why, given we were ruled by Brussels not Westminster?Philip_Thompson said:
It happened as recently as 2019. I was terrified by the concept of Prime Minister Corbyn.kinabalu said:
Well if we're now sovereign whereas before we were ruled by Brussels I look forward to general elections where Conservative voters are truly worried by what Labour might do if they get in. Because this has not been the case for a while.Philip_Thompson said:
Of course it is.kinabalu said:
The Leaver view is that the EU was - is - on a path towards political union of such scope and completeness that our membership would in due course become incompatible with the very existence of the UK as a nation state. It was therefore essential to bail out now while we still can. Leave it much longer and we'd have been trapped in a train hurtling down a one way track to just one destination. A United States Of Europe.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
Exciting stuff.
You can't long-term have federal powers without federal accountability and federal decision making.
That you do is not a good thing, it is a bad one. Mr Nabavi seems to be waving around an absence of accountability as a "strength" rather than a weakness.1 -
Depopulation by Hugo First is one of those classic tomes we used to joke about.Theuniondivvie said:
If you’re a fan of the ‘Greens are hypocrites’ meme, a bloke who squirted out 6 sprogs (who are well on their way to producing a rugby team) going on about population reduction would certainly fit.Malmesbury said:
Interesting - reducing population on that scale is a hard core deep Green policy.MattW said:
What's this "Mylastrollo" thing - is she pretending to be Welsh?Theuniondivvie said:
A meagre 60% would be disappointing to some.DavidL said:
Which 60%?Leon said:
Yep. The reasonable worst-case-scenario - reasonable - is that the virus keeps out-maneuvering us with new mutations and we remain in some awful form of lockdown, light or hard, with virtually no travel, for years, maybe many years. A lost decade, as you say.IshmaelZ said:
And 2020/21 really could turn out to be just the warmup to the Lost Decade. Not catastrophising for the sake of it, and not joking.Leon said:
Jesus. It really could be The Satan Bug.IshmaelZ said:Oh good. Story as per url
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/01/california-discovers-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-that-spreads-even-faster-than-any-other.html
It is looking as if it's not just individual cases that grow exponentially, it's also variant viruses.
ETA
"Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at University of California, San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The extreme worst case scenario is that it mutates into Avian flu and kills 60% of all humans, which would be a real bummer, tbh
https://twitter.com/mylastrollo/status/1352996326196310019?s=21
‘I want the world to be a better place for my DNA.’2 -
Only 200k jabs in todays numbers....
Incoming Daily Mail headline claiming vaccine programme is off track and will fail.1 -
I'm a subjunctive using "were"er. But interesting to note; google search of "if i were" (in quotes) returns 86m hits, "if i was" returns 975m.Mary_Batty said:
"Was" was fine. He made himself understood, and in some dialects "was" is the more common choice for this type of construction.Nigelb said:.
'Were'.williamglenn said:0 -
Weekend figures day 1FrancisUrquhart said:Only 200k jabs in todays numbers....
Incoming Daily Mail headline claiming vaccine programme is off track and will fail.
1 -
Shell buys German car-charging point company, surprised the Germans let it through, usually they get very defensive on this kind of stuff.0
-
England only vaccine numbers out
1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
Total 198,592 610 199,202
East Of England 31,699 35 31,734
London 25,486 238 25,724
Midlands 37,970 47 38,017
North East And Yorkshire 21,325 19 21,344
North West 30,442 80 30,522
South East 28,549 95 28,644
South West 22,140 96 22,236
0 -
Yes it is clear there is a 2 day lag in these figures.eek said:
Weekend figures day 1FrancisUrquhart said:Only 200k jabs in todays numbers....
Incoming Daily Mail headline claiming vaccine programme is off track and will fail.1 -
Actually I'm guessing you mean actual Brexit, not the referendum, so you're right..TrèsDifficile said:
Brexit wasn't since then.kinabalu said:
Yes, I thought she'd win easy. Also bet that way and lost a fair amount. But since then on the Big 3 events since, Brexit, GE19, WH20, it's been close to flawless.williamglenn said:
Did you predict a big Maybot majority?kinabalu said:
Thank you, Ishmael. Yes, that was peak me, I suspect. Probably on my way down now, starting with a Trump conviction which I backed at 4 and is now approaching 7. I've had a good roll on the political forecasting/betting front since I joined PB three years ago. In fact I'm inclined to think it's to some extent because I came here, since there is a correlation. The last big event before I discovered PB - the GE of 2017 - I got entirely wrong and dropped a packet. But since then, gosh, close to spooky!IshmaelZ said:
Nothing ever goes "exactly" as forecast. Not by anybody. And you have a hole in your forecasting portfolio you are never going to recover from. @Kinabalu forecast a deal in December, and acquired kudos. I forecast no deal (I said 80% chance of no deal, which I think is as close to certainty as any such forcast should be) and looked like an arse. And you made no commitment either way, because your task in life is to postdict what Johnson does and affirm that it is the best thing that could ever have happened in this best possible of worlds. So "As I foretold you" is not a line you can really use.Philip_Thompson said:
Our opt-outs were never very meaningful and just left us ever more ostracised as an outside within the tent. Given the UK had could be outvoted by QMV by the Eurozone, being tied to the project but outside the room was the worst sort of "influence".Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all, the choice was between our semi-detached membership, with lots of opt-outs and enhanced by Cameron's renegotiation and what we've got now, which to put it at its mildest, is not exactly going well.Philip_Thompson said:
A European demos will evolve over time. It is the history of federations.
The choice is whether you want to be federal (in which case give its Parliament full accountability) or not (in which case Brexit). Mr Nabavi wanting the EU to have federal powers but trumpetting the lack of federal accountability as a strength is just bizarre.
What we've got now is going well IMHO. Its going better than forecast by the likes of you - and exactly as I forecast.
Q for you. How likely iyo is a Sindy2 in 2022?1 -
But that tells us nothing because sometimes the subjunctive is not required. "If he were to say that he would be wrong" is correct, but so is "if he was saying that, he was wrong." Depends on the degree of counterfactuality involved.TrèsDifficile said:
I'm a subjunctive using "were"er. But interesting to note; google search of "if i were" (in quotes) returns 86m hits, "if i was" returns 975m.Mary_Batty said:
"Was" was fine. He made himself understood, and in some dialects "was" is the more common choice for this type of construction.Nigelb said:.
'Were'.williamglenn said:0 -
Are you really interested?FrancisUrquhart said:
Be interesting to know if she was ok with a transgender woman.....BluestBlue said:
Or what if her preferred woman director happens to be one of them female gaze?FrancisUrquhart said:Keira Knightley has said she will not appear in nude scenes for films that have a male director.
Speaking to the Chanel Connects podcast, the actress said: "I don't have an absolute ban [on filming nude scenes], but I kind of do with men.
"It's partly vanity and also it's the male gaze," the 35-year-old explained.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-55795237
What happens if her opposite in such a scene has a no female director policy?
Or did you more want to make a loaded "trans" comment?0
