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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD? – politicalbetting.com

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Quincel said:

    Very nice piece by TLG, hope he keeps writing if he has more thoughts as cogent as this.

    Thank you. I was looking through the numbers and thought the trends were interesting. I tend to be much more comfortable writing about this sort of thing, but I'll happily keep a record of these should we get any more in the not too distant future.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    It is not uncommon, around the world, for people to vote for pro-independence parties as their state/local government, yet not vote for independence in referenda.
    Which leads one to wonder for how many decades the whole tedious pantomime might drag on for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566

    Of course the graphic is wrong as 2017 should say "draw"!!
    No it should not. We don't have draws, and even if we did the Tories got more votes and seats so it clearly was not an equal win/loss between the two.

    What matters in any case is winning power. If May had done slightly worse and Corbyn gotten into power despite fewer seats he would have won that election in the way that mattered. Worked for Jacinda Ardern.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    edited January 2021
    30,004 new cases
    610 new deaths
    493k jabbies
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    edited January 2021
    kle4 said:

    I am surprised you of all people are digging in on this, and going the fakey nationalist grievance route.

    There was a post about 'Labour's general election' results in the last 42 years.

    There was then a post in reply about 'Tories' ge results' in the last 60 years.

    There was then a post about scottish elections at Westminster in reply to that.

    It is pretty obvious what ydoethur meant despite omitting the word GE. He said 'Can anyone play? in reply to the first two, so was clearly responding in the same terms despite his own descriptor missing the GE label.

    I'd believe this was just classic PB pedantry except you suggested it was about ignorance even though I think we can all tell what was meant.
    You seem to be taking this 'game' awfully seriously, and you're not even playing. Generous of you to provide a 'what they really meant' service though.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited January 2021
    Looking at that distribution of both where passengers were sitting overall, and who of them got COVID, it is unclear to me whether they contracted the COVID on the plane, or were rather groups of fellow-travelers, who may have contracted it from each other, either on the plane or at another point in their journey. For example why, given how empty the plane was, would the 3 in a row, or the 4 in two rows, sit so close to each other if they were not travelling together?
  • Enoch Powell learnt 14 languages and played the clarinet.
  • FFS...I have just seen images of some people I vaguely know who flew to the middle East for the principle reason of watching the UFC fight last night.

    Lock them up.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Which leads one to wonder for how many decades the whole tedious pantomime might drag on for.
    Could be famous last words, but I suspect a second Scottish Independence referendum will settle the matter one way or the other...for a generation at least. ;)
  • Lock them up.
    In the cage with the fighters....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    "Boris Johnson learnt to play the trombone at school and started piano lessons at 17. He says he plays On Top of Old Smokey and When the Saints Go Marching In on his piano at home.".

    The Prime Minister and partner Carrie Symonds have taken delivery of a piano. The upright instrument was brought into Downing Street to be placed in their official residence.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-2007380/Video-Piano-arrives-Downing-Street-Prime-Minister-Boris-Johnson-partner-Carrie-Symonds-home.html
    That sounds to me like he doesn't play in the sense that me and YBarddCwsc are meaning. Touch of the house of the rising suns about it. Borderline at best.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    tlg86 said:

    Could be famous last words, but I suspect a second Scottish Independence referendum will settle the matter one way or the other...for a generation at least. ;)
    I didn't know that the definition of a generation had shrunk to six nanoseconds, but hey-ho.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    edited January 2021

    You seem to be taking this 'game' awfully seriously, and you're not even playing. Generous of you to provide a 'what they really meant' service though.
    I'm taking it seriously whilst you making repeated comments about it is not taking it seriously? Must be one of those irregular verb situations. I'm just having fun, he's taking it seriously etc.

    I'm all for intentionally misunderstanding an unclear point for amusement, but it wasn't particularly unclear so I don't know what you gain by pretending to be hard of understanding and labelling in some self pitying thing about being a provincial as if that had come up in the slighest.

    I will have to remember the rule not to speculate on what someone else meant though, that's a new one to me, apparently it's a service which people should charge for. I'm certainly sure no one has ever done that before.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    FFS...I have just seen images of some people I vaguely know who flew to the middle East for the principle reason of watching the UFC fight last night.

    Here is where a "Not like" button would be handy.
  • The government saying 75% of over 80s have had at least first jab. I wonder how many of the 25% haven't because they turned it down?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    edited January 2021
    In case anyone is interested, Swale, the birthplace of Kent Covid, has gone from purple to blue in the Government's interactive map of death, meaning fewer than 400 cases per 100,000 in the district and only just over the national average. That's mildly encouraging IMHO..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814
    kinabalu said:

    That sounds to me like he doesn't play in the sense that me and YBarddCwsc are meaning. Touch of the house of the rising suns about it. Borderline at best.
    Trombone is also a very Brexity instrument. It screams 'red wall' - distinct whiff of collieries, whippets and people who say 'gradely' about it. I would suggest being more discriminating about the instruments and potentially the languages too.
  • DougSeal said:

    Possibly the most cringeworthy episode in our history was that manufactured outrage about a foreign leader's choice of office ornamentation. It's only rivalled by HYUFD's excruciatingly embarrasing insistence that US Presidents of English descent are nicer to us...conveniently ignoring the fact that Washington and Madison were both of English descent.
    Re: English descent, of course Biden has (apparently) more English DNA (though not sure that's right way to put it) than Irish.

    Perhaps it would help IF Joe admitted that he used to smoke Marlboro(ugh) cigaret(te)s?

    Probably not - because then he'd be accused of insulting the Churchill family AND rampant Anglophobia for quitting them!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TimT said:

    Looking at that distribution of both where passengers were sitting overall, and who of them got COVID, it is unclear to me whether they contracted the COVID on the plane, or were rather groups of fellow-travelers, who may have contracted it from each other, either on the plane or at another point in their journey. For example why, given how empty the plane was, would the 3 in a row, or the 4 in two rows, sit so close to each other if they were not travelling together?
    The flight was from the Middle East and the pax had spent varying amounts of time in the transit airport.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Usual, cases & admissions down, death us, but not quite so badly:


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    edited January 2021
    kinabalu said:

    That sounds to me like he doesn't play in the sense that me and YBarddCwsc are meaning. Touch of the house of the rising suns about it. Borderline at best.
    Careful, you'll have theuniondivvie on your case for providing a 'what they really meant' service for YBarddCwsc, which is apparently a thing, who must speak for himself. Not that he takes things seriously.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    edited January 2021

    In the cage with the fighters....
    If it is any comfort, I mentioned a few weeks ago that a couple I know decided to take a foreign holiday, well now they are stuck overseas, due to them testing positive.

    Apparently they will be broke shortly, because they are having to spend lots of money paying for accommodation, and neither can work.

    They aren't getting much sympathy in the WhatsApp groups.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Got to get those Blue Envelopes for the Oxford AstraZeneca jab;

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1353342576351465473?s=20
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The government saying 75% of over 80s have had at least first jab. I wonder how many of the 25% haven't because they turned it down?

    Probably not all that many. AIUI available evidence suggests old people are especially keen on the jab.

    We must certainly hope so anyway. If we all end up under bloody lockdown again next Winter because the unvaccinated clog up the hospitals then there will be ructions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    edited January 2021

    Which leads one to wonder for how many decades the whole tedious pantomime might drag on for.
    If they get this post Brexit Sindy2 - which they should and surely will - and AGAIN vote No there will not be another one in anything but deep time. So one way or another we are approaching a settlement.
  • The big decision voters in England will make at the next election is whether they want to get rid of the Tory government. If they do, they will start looking more closely at their own constituencies to find the way to do so. That will certainly help the LibDems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    edited January 2021

    Trombone is also a very Brexity instrument. It screams 'red wall' - distinct whiff of collieries, whippets and people who say 'gradely' about it. I would suggest being more discriminating about the instruments and potentially the languages too.
    I used to play the Trombone, there's something in this theory.

    Though even people who cannot play the Piano can play When the Saints on one. We learned in on the glockenspiel at school as it only required five notes, right next to one another.
  • That website is a bit rubbish, just typed in Theresa May, the Home Secretary who legislated for same sex marriage and comes out as 'Theresa voted against laws to promote equality and human rights.'
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    felix said:

    Lol. That's the joke as it is what they all seem to think now. I won't tell them if you don't!
    It was there to be seen in the anagrams all along:

    Tony Blair ~ Tory in Lab

    PM Tony Blair ~ I'm Tory Plan B
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814
    With the rumour about cockney Covid being more deadly - couldn't it just be different? In the sense that hospitals have got a fair bit better at treating standard Covid, but with cockney Covid they are starting from scratch. That would account for a small but noticeable increase in mortality.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    edited January 2021
    Just catching up, and I can report that I've read the best, the worst, and the most mediocre of PB this afternoon.

    The best: TLG's interesting header and consequent debate.

    The worst: Endless comment on a pointless journalist's dissection of a pointless photo (though TSE's addition of the Bernie Sanders one was amusing).

    The most mediocre: Repetitive and speculative comment on Scottish independence (by the way, was 2014 a once in a generation referendum? Remind us, HYUFD).

    Incidentally, the header reminded me that I won a bet on Labour winning Canterbury in 2017 - £40@25/1. The bet was based on an idle, time-serving Tory MP, significant growth in student numbers, and a report on Emily Thornberry wandering down the High Street being greeted by enthusiastic crowds (honestly) a few days before the election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566

    I think you need to seek help.
    Scott is helping himself by helping others to see the truth.

    I wish I had his stamina.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    Enoch Powell learnt 14 languages and played the clarinet.

    But he wasn't a right wing populist. Just the first.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Re: English descent, of course Biden has (apparently) more English DNA (though not sure that's right way to put it) than Irish.

    Perhaps it would help IF Joe admitted that he used to smoke Marlboro(ugh) cigaret(te)s?

    Probably not - because then he'd be accused of insulting the Churchill family AND rampant Anglophobia for quitting them!
    My wife is an Irish-American. My mother is, culturally, as English as they come - almost a stereotype. My mother got into genealogy and also did one of those 23andMe DNA tests - both of which suggest that my mother is genetically more Irish than my mother-in-law. That caused a cognative dissonance in my Wife's family that you would not believe. It actually caused a slight argument over Thanksgiving dinner.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    kle4 said:

    No it should not. We don't have draws, and even if we did the Tories got more votes and seats so it clearly was not an equal win/loss between the two.

    What matters in any case is winning power. If May had done slightly worse and Corbyn gotten into power despite fewer seats he would have won that election in the way that mattered. Worked for Jacinda Ardern.
    February 74 was a Labour win, because they got power despite a quarter of a million less votes.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    But he wasn't a right wing populist. Just the first.
    Right?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    edited January 2021
    kle4 said:

    No it should not. We don't have draws, and even if we did the Tories got more votes and seats so it clearly was not an equal win/loss between the two.

    What matters in any case is winning power. If May had done slightly worse and Corbyn gotten into power despite fewer seats he would have won that election in the way that mattered. Worked for Jacinda Ardern.
    17 was a loss that felt more of a win than many a win.
  • kinabalu said:

    But he wasn't a right wing populist. Just the first.
    He was just right?!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838
    DougSeal said:

    My wife is an Irish-American. My mother is, culturally, as English as they come - almost a stereotype. My mother got into genealogy and also did one of those 23andMe DNA tests - both of which suggest that my mother is genetically more Irish than my mother-in-law. That caused a cognative dissonance in my Wife's family that you would not believe. It actually caused a slight argument over Thanksgiving dinner.
    The American obsession with 'roots' is deeply weird.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566

    That website is a bit rubbish, just typed in Theresa May, the Home Secretary who legislated for same sex marriage and comes out as 'Theresa voted against laws to promote equality and human rights.'
    Damn, I hope the academics behind this rigorously researched resource figure out what went wrong with their data and algorithms.

    My MP gets a solitary positive for voting to remove Hereditary Peers. Is that really a prick/non-prick issue? I can see why it would be the right decision for the purposes of such an analysis, but it doesn't seem along the same lines as 'voting against proper funding of public services' or 'voted against directly funding free school means'
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    The government saying 75% of over 80s have had at least first jab. I wonder how many of the 25% haven't because they turned it down?

    I noted that the BBC were reporting that Matt Hancock said 75% of over 80s had had vaccine and that three quarters of care home residents had had the vaccine. I don't know if this is Matt Hancock or the BBC that have expressed this like this, but it gave me the impression that someone didn't understand that 3/4 = 75%.

    And what is not surprising is that was my first assumption when seeing something written like that. Is it very cynical of me to assume when seeing something like this that these people don't understand very basic arithmetic rather than it being an inconsistency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    kle4 said:

    Damn, I hope the academics behind this rigorously researched resource figure out what went wrong with their data and algorithms.

    My MP gets a solitary positive for voting to remove Hereditary Peers. Is that really a prick/non-prick issue? I can see why it would be the right decision for the purposes of such an analysis, but it doesn't seem along the same lines as 'voting against proper funding of public services' or 'voted against directly funding free school means'
    These days not agreeing with me = prick (or worse).
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited January 2021

    He was just right?!
    I never thought we'd see the day kinabalu admitted that...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Just catching up, and I can report that I've read the best, the worst, and the most mediocre of PB this afternoon.

    The best: TLG's interesting header and consequent debate.

    Incidentally, the header reminded me that I won a bet on Labour winning Canterbury in 2017 - £40@25/1. The bet was based on an idle, time-serving Tory MP, significant growth in student numbers, and a report on Emily Thornberry wandering down the High Street being greeted by enthusiastic crowds (honestly) a few days before the election.

    Thank you, that's very kind. I sat in my office the day before the election (I probably should have been working...) and thought about backing Labour in Canterbury. I didn't and was gutted when it came in. Still, I won plenty on Labour in places like Wirral South (7/1!) and Enfield North (3/1).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    edited January 2021

    The American obsession with 'roots' is deeply weird.
    I've always thought it rather charming that americans are often able to be deeply patriotic about the USA, and its hodgepotch of cultures from waves of immigration and the like, and yet simultaneously very obsessed with their antecendents, to the point of steretyping themselves based on nations their ancestors may well have left hundreds of years ago.

    It's true blending of identities in many ways.

    Edit: Where it seems weird is the sort of thing I have admittedly only seen in TV shows where people refer to themselves as Irish or Italian for example. Presumably as shorthand for Irish-american or Italian-american, but still.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    kjh said:

    I noted that the BBC were reporting that Matt Hancock said 75% of over 80s had had vaccine and that three quarters of care home residents had had the vaccine. I don't know if this is Matt Hancock or the BBC that have expressed this like this, but it gave me the impression that someone didn't understand that 3/4 = 75%.

    And what is not surprising is that was my first assumption when seeing something written like that. Is it very cynical of me to assume when seeing something like this that these people don't understand very basic arithmetic rather than it being an inconsistency.
    Two different populations, just coincidence it's the same fraction.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    He was just right?!
    Yes. Enoch was right!

    Where's isam?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    The American obsession with 'roots' is deeply weird.
    The Wife is also a bit Welsh and supports them over Ireland in the 6N.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    RobD said:

    These days not agreeing with me = prick (or worse).
    I don't agree with that, you prick!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    edited January 2021
    UK Local R

    image
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838
    kle4 said:

    I've always thought it rather charming that americans are often able to be deeply patriotic about the USA, and its hodgepotch of cultures from waves of immigration and the like, and yet simultaneously very obsessed with their antecendents, to the point of steretyping themselves based on nations their ancestors may well have left hundreds of years ago.

    It's true blending of identities in many ways.
    But it implicitly places America above the rest of the world, as if it's a place to which they have ascended, rather than just another country.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    UK hospitals

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    kle4 said:

    I don't agree with that, you prick!
    Things like this are a symptom of the dysfunctional politics. Rather than debate the points, it's easier to just call an MP a prick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    UK deaths

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  • Man Utd and Liverpool fielding much stronger teams than I thought they would for the FA Cup match.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,170

    But it implicitly places America above the rest of the world, as if it's a place to which they have ascended, rather than just another country.
    Well that's the whole point of the American national myth isn't it?

    The new world. The land of the free, the home of the brave. The home of liberty and justice. The greatest country in the world etc etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    UK R

    From case data

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    From hospitalisation data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    Age related data - these are now scaled to the percentage of each group in the general population

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    edited January 2021
    UK Vacinnations

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    Trombone is also a very Brexity instrument. It screams 'red wall' - distinct whiff of collieries, whippets and people who say 'gradely' about it. I would suggest being more discriminating about the instruments and potentially the languages too.
    Yes. In my mind it's string or piano.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    edited January 2021
    100k deaths coming on Tuesday reporting it seems. Yikes.

    Among micro nations Gibraltar appear to be having a terrible time, seemingly not having had a previous first wave. But at least their vaccinations is going well I think.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    If they get this post Brexit Sindy2 - which they should and surely will - and AGAIN vote No there will not be another one in anything but deep time. So one way or another we are approaching a settlement.
    Well, maybe - if, by "deep time," you mean "the following Scottish Parliament election, when they vote the SNP back in and the whole cycle begins yet again."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384

    Yes.

    It reminds me of a manager I worked for. A lawyer by training, he assumed that everything could be reduced to legal principles. Also that he was a philosopher king.

    When introduced to new concepts he would often get the wrong end of the stick. And hold onto it with a grip like death.

    He tried to run a campaign to stamp out time-wasting by developers. Said time wasting was writing unit tests* for code. Since the tests didn't go into production, they were obviously not needed. Hence a waste of time.
    Please send me his details so I can be sure never to hire him.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:

    Two different populations, just coincidence it's the same fraction.
    That is not the point I was making. Why say 75% and 3/4 in the same sentence for 2 different things. Use either 75% or 3/4 for both. It was written in such a way as to imply they were different numbers. It looked very odd.

    Either use 75% or 3/4 for each stat. It was written in such a way as if the person didn't understand they were the same number.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    tlg86 said:

    Thank you, that's very kind. I sat in my office the day before the election (I probably should have been working...) and thought about backing Labour in Canterbury. I didn't and was gutted when it came in. Still, I won plenty on Labour in places like Wirral South (7/1!) and Enfield North (3/1).
    Good stuff. My other big winner was Ipswich, which I think was 16/1. I also won lots on Labour wins in seats that I was really confident about, but which the bookies had as roughly evens (Brighton Kemptown, Hove, Batley and Spen (Jo Cox's old seat).
  • We still have many many more weeks before we any chance of relaxation in lockdown.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384
    TimT said:

    Looking at that distribution of both where passengers were sitting overall, and who of them got COVID, it is unclear to me whether they contracted the COVID on the plane, or were rather groups of fellow-travelers, who may have contracted it from each other, either on the plane or at another point in their journey. For example why, given how empty the plane was, would the 3 in a row, or the 4 in two rows, sit so close to each other if they were not travelling together?
    That's also an extraordinary proportion of passengers who got onto the plane already infected with CV19 - which will also play a role.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    kjh said:

    That is not the point I was making. Why say 75% and 3/4 in the same sentence for 2 different things. Use either 75% or 3/4 for both. It was written in such a way as to imply they were different numbers. It looked very odd.

    Either use 75% or 3/4 for each stat. It was written in such a way as if the person didn't understand they were the same number.
    To avoid repetition I would have thought. The fact they are the same is not really relevant though, so it doesn't matter whether someone understood they were the same or not.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    Well, maybe - if, by "deep time," you mean "the following Scottish Parliament election, when they vote the SNP back in and the whole cycle begins yet again."
    No I'm specifically saying not that. If they vote No again that will be it. And the Scottish people will know this. I think you're being too weary waspish on this one.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:

    To avoid repetition I would have thought. The fact they are the same is not really relevant though, so it doesn't matter whether someone understood they were the same or not.
    Your more charitable than me. I assumed it was written by someone who didn't pass their GCSE maths.

    The only time I would find it possibly acceptable to mix them up would be with the use of 1/3 and 2/3.

    The fact that each stat was identical made it really stand out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    edited January 2021
    Crickey...same in Amsterdam as well apparently.

    https://twitter.com/jensjesv/status/1353377918274166784?s=19

    And this isn't because they government isn't vaccinating anybody...it is because they imposed a lockdown.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384
    On topic, the MRP forecasts all seem to assume a large amount of reversion to the national share. So, parties lose votes when their share is above the national average (often by large amounts), and conversely gain share when below.

    I'm not sure how realistic that is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    Man Utd and Liverpool fielding much stronger teams than I thought they would for the FA Cup match.

    Chance of a trophy.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    kjh said:

    I noted that the BBC were reporting that Matt Hancock said 75% of over 80s had had vaccine and that three quarters of care home residents had had the vaccine. I don't know if this is Matt Hancock or the BBC that have expressed this like this, but it gave me the impression that someone didn't understand that 3/4 = 75%.

    And what is not surprising is that was my first assumption when seeing something written like that. Is it very cynical of me to assume when seeing something like this that these people don't understand very basic arithmetic rather than it being an inconsistency.
    I think it is because journalists consider saying the same thing in two succesive sentences is boring English. So most journalists won't say 75% of ... and 75% of.... even though it is the more consistent way to expressi it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,170
    They're clearly bored. They need to get themselves some Netflix subscriptions.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384
    I've spent time in Eindhoven pre-Covid.

    It doesn't look very different.
  • We still have many many more weeks before we any chance of relaxation in lockdown.

    I'm going for the schools reopening after Easter and pubs and restaurants by second May Bank Holiday weekend.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    rcs1000 said:

    Please send me his details so I can be sure never to hire him.
    LOL - long retired by now. The oil company we worked for, as part of a modernisation drive, realised that their fully funded final salary pension fund was massively in surplus.

    Since withdrawing money was out of the question, they offered early retirement to a large number of 60 years olds - retire now. We will give you your pension as of 65, even give you the promotions and pay rises we can assume you would have had. Plus a bonus. Plus an offer to come and consult a couple of days a week to pass on knowledge about your old job.

    Practically 100% take-up. Then they did this for the 55 year olds....

    A brilliant way to get rid of an enormous amount of dead wood.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819
    kle4 said:

    I'm not surprised LAs would be against them, it's just not that urgent for most of them, and delaying to September is far more convenient in terms of stopping then restarting preparations than delaying to July. I do continue to maintain party activists vastly overestimate the general importance of their campaigning, based on the occasions when it has indeed made a big difference, as most people still don't get canvassed or receive more than one leaflet (though where people do bother to work harder, it can matter, given the low turnout in most races). Certainly it would be unfair for incumbents to get any sort of advantage.

    I'm still expecting a last minute deferral, maybe in late December, but the government have already held firmer than I thought they would.
    It means that a volunteer can't deliver a leaflet attacking Mr Johnson, however a party that can afford to pay for a delivery company to do it would be able to deliver Mr Johnson's propaganda.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    No I'm specifically saying not that. If they vote No again that will be it. And the Scottish people will know this. I think you're being too weary waspish on this one.
    Not really. If an excuse can be found for one re-run (considerably less than a generation later,) then it can be done repeatedly until the desired result is achieved.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838

    Crickey...same in Amsterdam as well apparently.

    https://twitter.com/jensjesv/status/1353377918274166784?s=19

    And this isn't because they government isn't vaccinating anybody...it is because they imposed a lockdown.

    It's quite funny to see covidiots cheering on the same kind of images that would normally have them proclaiming the end of Western civilisation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, the MRP forecasts all seem to assume a large amount of reversion to the national share. So, parties lose votes when their share is above the national average (often by large amounts), and conversely gain share when below.

    I'm not sure how realistic that is.

    And that wasn't the case for either YouGov or Focal Data in the models they published ahead of the 2019 GE. So the question is, what's different now? Is it that the country is less polarized, or is it just mid-term and people aren't thinking too hard about politics?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    I never thought we'd see the day kinabalu admitted that...
    Long career. I'm sure he was right about something. Was he pro clean and punctual buses?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Age related data - these are now scaled to the percentage of each group in the general population

    image
    image

    Looks like a dip in the oldies in hospital from 9 January ish?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    kjh said:

    Your more charitable than me. I assumed it was written by someone who didn't pass their GCSE maths.

    The only time I would find it possibly acceptable to mix them up would be with the use of 1/3 and 2/3.

    The fact that each stat was identical made it really stand out.
    Written by someone who struggled with his O level English. Good job @MarqueeMark isn't here.

    Your or You're. Will we doing 100 lines of this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    It was there to be seen in the anagrams all along:

    Tony Blair ~ Tory in Lab

    PM Tony Blair ~ I'm Tory Plan B
    Wish I hadn't seen that. Sleepless nights.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    With the rumour about cockney Covid being more deadly - couldn't it just be different? In the sense that hospitals have got a fair bit better at treating standard Covid, but with cockney Covid they are starting from scratch. That would account for a small but noticeable increase in mortality.

    It may well be more deadly but cases in Kent, where it started, have been dropping very quickly lately so maybe it doesn't like to hang about.
  • kle4 said:

    Careful, you'll have theuniondivvie on your case for providing a 'what they really meant' service for YBarddCwsc, which is apparently a thing, who must speak for himself. Not that he takes things seriously.
    You obviously had a right good exfoliation first thing this morning.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    I'm going for the schools reopening after Easter and pubs and restaurants by second May Bank Holiday weekend.
    Me too, although I think the primaries may reopen earlier.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    It would appear that Liverpool have decided to wear Man City fancy dress this afternoon. Whether this does anything to improve their form remains to be seen.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    I’ve no idea why the Scottish media, Scottish opposition and the UK media are so poor at holding the SNP to account.

    One benefit of Indy - at least they can be held to account for it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited January 2021
    Has Robert Peston worked out how mirrors work yet, or is it still a case for Mulder and Scully to investigate?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,170

    I'm going for the schools reopening after Easter and pubs and restaurants by second May Bank Holiday weekend.
    But more importantly, when can I resume necking trebles in Sinners on a neet oot?
This discussion has been closed.