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Those betting that the Senate will vote to convict Trump should probably take heart from McConnell –

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  • Trump making his final speech saying the movement we started is only at the beginning
  • Leon said:

    It wasn't just wishful thinking, it was explicitly denied by the EU. And Spain alone would have vetoed, because Catalunya.

    The SNP position was a massive lie, in other words.

    Also, any legal analysis - for about a minute- reveals why this "grandfathering" could not have happened. Scottish accession as a new state would require a new EU Treaty, a new division of MEPs. new commissioners, and so on and so forth.

    As we have seen, the EU is painfully legalistic and bureaucratic, that's how it works (and, arguably, stays together, the red tape smothers democracy, deliberately). Scotland in 2014 would have had to quit the EU on a Yes vote, and would have been obliged to re-apply for membership.

    Sturgeon is too clever not to know this. She chooses to forget. She's a politician.
    The plaintive cry of the Brexityoon

    'Why oh why can't she be as shyte as our politicians?!'
  • About £600,000 of the 1.01 Trump to leave in 2021 has been taken. £67,000 left at time of posting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Is Trump going to pardon anyone at all? He is running out of time. It is already 4pm ET.

    Maybe the deal for not going ahead with early impeachment was no more pardons?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840

    The plaintive cry of the Brexityoon

    'Why oh why can't she be as shyte as our politicians?!'
    Yawwwwwwwwwn
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    It wasn't just wishful thinking, it was explicitly denied by the EU. And Spain alone would have vetoed, because Catalunya.

    The SNP position was a massive lie, in other words.

    Also, any legal analysis - for about a minute- reveals why this "grandfathering" could not have happened. Scottish accession as a new state would require a new EU Treaty, a new division of MEPs. new commissioners, and so on and so forth.

    As we have seen, the EU is painfully legalistic and bureaucratic, that's how it works (and, arguably, stays together, the red tape smothers democracy, deliberately). Scotland in 2014 would have had to quit the EU on a Yes vote, and would have been obliged to re-apply for membership.

    Sturgeon is too clever not to know this. She chooses to forget. She's a politician.
    Look at the Greek accession though. Corners can be cut and Spain can be bought off for a result the EU wants and starting from where we are now, an Indy Scotland in the EU would be the most stupendous triumph (and piece of trolling) in diplomatic history.
  • Maybe the deal for not going ahead with early impeachment was no more pardons?
    Hard to see who would gain from that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    The plaintive cry of the Brexityoon

    'Why oh why can't she be as shyte as our politicians?!'
    Patience you must have, my young padawan.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    In about 2 years the Norns will realise they have won the lottery of life. They have automatic citizenship of the EU, and ALSO of the UK. Their companies can freely trade in the EU Single Market AND the UK Single Market. Investment is going to flood into Belfast. It will be like a Freeport.

    Why on earth would they give up this uniquely beneficial situation, so as to reunify with the South, which would risk renewed violence and sever them from the benefits of the UK? What's the point? Those who feel strongly "Irish" can have an Irish passport and the rest. Those who feel British can have an Irish and a UK passport. Such great good luck.

    I do not begrudge the Northern Irish this prize. They've had a hard time for decades. But it is a huge, ironic prize.



    I suggest you do a bit more research, the Northern Irish are facing huge hurdles to get easy access to the UK single market, and vice versa.

    As one UK trader put it, it is easier for him to send a container to China than it is to send some stuff to NI.

    This is one of the reasons the DUP are prepping for a border poll.

    A potential 25% tariff to be imposed on steel imports to Northern Ireland not from Great Britain will ruin the industry, it has been warned.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/25-tariff-on-steel-imports-to-northern-ireland-ruinous-39974482.html

    The Norn Irish are about get the worst of all worlds.
  • About £600,000 of the 1.01 Trump to leave in 2021 has been taken. £67,000 left at time of posting.

    All gone! No more 1.01 Trump to leave in 2021. There is still a small amount of 1.01 Trump not to leave before the end of his first term but that is still technically possible so I'd swerve that offer.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    A much better write-up about the Israeli results here.

    Suggests we should probably look at getting Dose 2 in the arms of the elderly sooner rather than later, but overall good news.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,284

    I suggest you do a bit more research, the Northern Irish are facing huge hurdles to get easy access to the UK single market, and vice versa.

    As one UK trader put it, it is easier for him to send a container to China than it is to send some stuff to NI.

    This is one of the reasons the DUP are prepping for a border poll.
    The DUPs best chance is an early border poll. It is just going to get worse for them...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Trump making his final speech saying the movement we started is only at the beginning


    Zzzzz.

    Today a president.

    Tomorrow a schmuck.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Hard to see who would gain from that.
    Justice? If he was planning to pardon the Congress invaders en masse...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390
    Leon said:

    It wasn't just wishful thinking, it was explicitly denied by the EU. And Spain alone would have vetoed, because Catalunya.

    The SNP position was a massive lie, in other words.

    Also, any legal analysis - for about a minute- reveals why this "grandfathering" could not have happened. Scottish accession as a new state would require a new EU Treaty, a new division of MEPs. new commissioners, and so on and so forth.

    As we have seen, the EU is painfully legalistic and bureaucratic, that's how it works (and, arguably, stays together, the red tape smothers democracy, deliberately). Scotland in 2014 would have had to quit the EU on a Yes vote, and would have been obliged to re-apply for membership.

    Sturgeon is too clever not to know this. She chooses to forget. She's a politician.
    I think as far as she's concerned Brexit simply clears a step on the way for Scottish accession to the EU as an independent country, which would otherwise have raised very awkward questions, and her opposition to it in principle is entirely cynical.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Hard to see who would gain from that.
    For anyone who is jointly guilty with Trump, pardoning them disincentivises them from colluding in a defence and makes them available as potential witnesses for the prosecution. He'd be mad to pardon anybody.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Foxy said:

    The DUPs best chance is an early border poll. It is just going to get worse for them...
    Well, Mr Johnson isn't going to allow one is he?? On exactly the same logic as Scotland, I imagone.

    IIRC the decision on whether to have a poll is actually formally in the hands of the SoSfNI. So ...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609

    Part of me wants to the laugh at the DUP but most of me wants to weep for the break up of the country.

    Senior DUP MP Gavin Robinson warns unionism to prepare for border poll

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/01/18/news/gavin-robinson-echoes-dup-namesake-s-call-for-unionism-to-get-ready-for-a-border-poll-2189559/

    The DUP have belatedly realised why backing Brexit was the greatest strategic blunder since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the Second Death Star.

    It’s not the breakup of the country. It’s the reunification of the country.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    As do others who simply refuse to accept brexit

    I believe it is called BDS
    Pointing out the consequences of Brexit is hardly deranged.
    That term might more fairly be applied to those triggered by such facts.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609

    What do you make of the Sillars-ite wing of the party, that is very anti-EU? Sillars is now arguing for a delay on Indyref 2, ostensibly because of Covid etc., but it's pretty obvious it's because he's not on board with the bouncing back into the EU.
    Sillars is not a member of the SNP. Get your facts right.
  • Foxy said:

    The DUPs best chance is an early border poll. It is just going to get worse for them...
    Not an option for them.

    As part of the Good Friday Agreement, an explicit provision for holding a Northern Ireland border poll was made in UK law. The Northern Ireland Act 1998 states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840
    IshmaelZ said:

    Look at the Greek accession though. Corners can be cut and Spain can be bought off for a result the EU wants and starting from where we are now, an Indy Scotland in the EU would be the most stupendous triumph (and piece of trolling) in diplomatic history.
    Is is pish, tho. Scotland would legally have been forced to quit the EU, then reapply, with all the complex renegotiations (over fishing, amongst others) that accession requires. The idea that Eastern European countries, which had to jump through decades of hoops to gain membership, would simply nod through a Scottish accession, is bonkers.

    Brexit has shown us this, surely? Leaving the EU is horribly complicated and rejoining, by anyone, is not gonna be a nice sunny picnic, done and dusted in weeks.

    For a start the EU/rUK would have had to renegotiate their OWN relationship, requiring a painful new Treaty, diminishing UK MEP numbers, and so on. Only when that was done, would the EU have been legally eqiuipped to turn to Scotland's eagerness to reapply.

    Rough guess: 5-10 years minimum.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    Well, Mr Johnson isn't going to allow one is he?? On exactly the same logic as Scotland, I imagone.

    IIRC the decision on whether to have a poll is actually formally in the hands of the SoSfNI. So ...
    And the SoSfNI is obliged to hold one if he thinks it might succeed, I think (CBA to look up), and then not have another one for 7 years. I believe HYUFD has proposed amending the legislation though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Not an option for them.

    As part of the Good Friday Agreement, an explicit provision for holding a Northern Ireland border poll was made in UK law. The Northern Ireland Act 1998 states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.
    Simple, just always appoint a woman as Secretary of State for NI.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Sillars is not a member of the SNP. Get your facts right.
    It's also a bt like talking about the Heseltinite wing of the Conservative Party ...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609

    The plaintive cry of the Brexityoon

    'Why oh why can't she be as shyte as our politicians?!'
    She didn’t go to Eton and Oxford to learn advanced shitebaggery like Johnson and his minions.
  • Justice? If he was planning to pardon the Congress invaders en masse...
    Justice does not have a vote. The Republican Party would be better off if Trump did pardon the invaders, because otherwise each one would point to incitement and encouragement not just from Trump but from other Republicans in Congress. Over 100 criminal cases could keep the mud flying for years.
  • Nigelb said:

    Pointing out the consequences of Brexit is hardly deranged.
    That term might more fairly be applied to those triggered by such facts.
    You're talking about the poster with DDS, Drakeford Derangement Syndrome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840

    I suggest you do a bit more research, the Northern Irish are facing huge hurdles to get easy access to the UK single market, and vice versa.

    As one UK trader put it, it is easier for him to send a container to China than it is to send some stuff to NI.

    This is one of the reasons the DUP are prepping for a border poll.

    A potential 25% tariff to be imposed on steel imports to Northern Ireland not from Great Britain will ruin the industry, it has been warned.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/25-tariff-on-steel-imports-to-northern-ireland-ruinous-39974482.html

    The Norn Irish are about get the worst of all worlds.
    No, they won't. The UK will subsidise Ulster as they always have. And the Norns will be free to trade with the EU and within the UK. Uniquely preferred.

    That said, I do think the CTA is now under threat.
  • What do you make of the Sillars-ite wing of the party, that is very anti-EU? Sillars is now arguing for a delay on Indyref 2, ostensibly because of Covid etc., but it's pretty obvious it's because he's not on board with the bouncing back into the EU.
    Well it's obviously a strand in the SNP but tends to be in some of older members (not sure if Sillars is still a member). How much influence they have is a separate and debatable point. Ironically Sillars was one of the movers that changed the SNP's Eurosceptic stance in the 70s to 'Independence in Europe'.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Do we have numbers for new vaccinations on Monday yet? Scrolling down through the thread, I did not see anything.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    Simple, just always appoint a woman as Secretary of State for NI.
    "words importing the masculine gender shall include females" - Interpretation Act 1978
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    IshmaelZ said:

    And the SoSfNI is obliged to hold one if he thinks it might succeed, I think (CBA to look up), and then not have another one for 7 years. I believe HYUFD has proposed amending the legislation though.
    But he could just say that any polls which showed it migh succeed were doidgy, add the DKs to the No side, ignore the smaller parties a la HYUFD, and generally ignore them.
  • You're talking about the poster with DDS, Drakeford Derangement Syndrome.
    I accept that and so seemingly do the Welsh as labour falls rapidly in the polls and the BMA are the latest to launch an attack on him today
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Is is pish, tho. Scotland would legally have been forced to quit the EU, then reapply, with all the complex renegotiations (over fishing, amongst others) that accession requires. The idea that Eastern European countries, which had to jump through decades of hoops to gain membership, would simply nod through a Scottish accession, is bonkers.

    Brexit has shown us this, surely? Leaving the EU is horribly complicated and rejoining, by anyone, is not gonna be a nice sunny picnic, done and dusted in weeks.

    For a start the EU/rUK would have had to renegotiate their OWN relationship, requiring a painful new Treaty, diminishing UK MEP numbers, and so on. Only when that was done, would the EU have been legally eqiuipped to turn to Scotland's eagerness to reapply.

    Rough guess: 5-10 years minimum.
    Leaving the EU is horribly complicated if and only if the EU wants it to be, ditto joining. So 5 years yes, 10 years no.
  • I accept that and so seemingly do the Welsh as labour falls rapidly in the polls and the BMA are the latest to launch an attack on him today
    Yet you're silent when various medical organisations have criticised Boris Johnson and the UK government.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Carnyx said:

    Well, Mr Johnson isn't going to allow one is he??
    NI has cost so much blood, money and attention that you have to wonder whether betraying the DUP and provoking a border poll isn't a deliberate strategy to try to get rid of it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    edited January 2021

    Yet you're silent when various medical organisations have criticised Boris Johnson and the UK government.
    I live in Wales and Drakeford runs the Wales NHS.

    Boris is irrelevant to my or my wife's health who at 81 still has not had the vaccination and no sign of it
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390

    I suggest you do a bit more research, the Northern Irish are facing huge hurdles to get easy access to the UK single market, and vice versa.

    As one UK trader put it, it is easier for him to send a container to China than it is to send some stuff to NI.

    This is one of the reasons the DUP are prepping for a border poll.

    A potential 25% tariff to be imposed on steel imports to Northern Ireland not from Great Britain will ruin the industry, it has been warned.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/25-tariff-on-steel-imports-to-northern-ireland-ruinous-39974482.html

    The Norn Irish are about get the worst of all worlds.
    If it's easier for him to send a container to China under WTO rules than it is to NI then the trade deal and protocol is worthless, which doesn't stack up:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950601/Northern_Ireland_Protocol_-_Command_Paper.pdf

    There are no export declarations required for Northern Ireland traders moving their goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. They only apply if they've originated from the EU market, in other words routed via Ireland and NI to try and backdoor into GB.

    The Irish sea border is heavily bias on the GB to NI crossing (one-way) because it's in that direction that they're at risk of moving into the EU single market.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    IshmaelZ said:

    And the SoSfNI is obliged to hold one if he thinks it might succeed, I think (CBA to look up), and then not have another one for 7 years. I believe HYUFD has proposed amending the legislation though.
    My understanding was the HYUFD prefers to scythe off the hardcore loyalist bits, and create an ethnic homeland for Orangemen in the far north east of the island.

    Something like this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orania,_Northern_Cape
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    Today a president.

    Tomorrow a schmuck.

    Today a schmuck.

    Tomorrow a schmuck without immunity.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,420
    Leon said:

    No, they won't. The UK will subsidise Ulster as they always have. And the Norns will be free to trade with the EU and within the UK. Uniquely preferred.

    That said, I do think the CTA is now under threat.
    I suspect it'll be modified: crossing the Irish Sea (whether by air or by boat) will require photo identification, but probably not a passport.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    IshmaelZ said:

    For anyone who is jointly guilty with Trump, pardoning them disincentivises them from colluding in a defence and makes them available as potential witnesses for the prosecution. He'd be mad to pardon anybody.
    Is he not constitutionally barred from pardoning anyone directly involved in the matter for which he is being impeached ?
  • You're quite right that I am not neutral. But neither are the numbers - the joy of just looking at the numbers is that they are impervious to political positioning and spin. All of the relevant trade metrics are bad - very bad. Considering the impact that this all has on Irish product costs I am not surprised they are furious. The extra cost and time of these UK-avoiding ferries and the collapse of their logistics chain isn't something they will have wanted either.
    RP. Just wanted to apologise for my comments to you earlier. The blatant misuse of figures to mislead gets me very angry - and yes that applies to both sides. But you didn't produce the dishonest tweet and it was wrong of me to be so rude to you. You are certainly not at fault for having differing views and I should have been more reasonable in my responses to you

    So you have my unreserved apology
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leaving the EU is horribly complicated if and only if the EU wants it to be, ditto joining. So 5 years yes, 10 years no.
    Nonsense on steroids. The guy who wrote Article 50 was a Brit. Lord Kerr. It's in the Lisbon Treaty, AKA the EU Constitution - you know, the Treaty we were promised a vote on, multiple times, which somehow never actually happened, because europhiles are arrogant, short-sighted lying c*nts.

    If only they HAD given us a vote, we would not be in this pickle.

    Anyhoo. Lord Kerr himself has admitted that Article 50 is DESIGNED to be horrific, for the leaving member: it gives all the power to the EU. As we have seen. The whole idea is that quitting is so painful the errant member will change its mind during the process.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-article-50-lord-kerr-john-kerr/

    To be fair to him, he never envisaged it happening in Britain, he thought it would be some mad southern or eastern EU state, captured by Fascism.

    But this mad Article became law, and applied to Britain, because British voters weren't allowed a say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    IshmaelZ said:

    And the SoSfNI is obliged to hold one if he thinks it might succeed, I think (CBA to look up), and then not have another one for 7 years. I believe HYUFD has proposed amending the legislation though.
    There is no evidence it would succeed, most polls in NI show NI voters want to stay in the UK, so the NI Secretary will correctly refuse a border poll.

    Plus as the NI First Minister is a Unionist, Arlene Foster from the DUP, unlike Sturgeon she would not even ask him for one anyway

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-poll/poll-shows-northern-ireland-majority-against-united-ireland-idUSKBN20C0WI
  • If you look at the engagement/view stats on YouTube of that Trump video it doesn't have the same coverage as Trump tweet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    Tres said:

    Whereas Johnson will be looked back on as the man who destroyed the Union.
    No, as he will not allow indyref2.

    Plus there is a swing to No in the latest Scottish poll today.

    Yes down to just 45% including Don't Knows ie no change at all from 2014 despite Brexit

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20
  • If it's easier for him to send a container to China under WTO rules than it is to NI then the trade deal and protocol is worthless, which doesn't stack up:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950601/Northern_Ireland_Protocol_-_Command_Paper.pdf

    There are no export declarations required for Northern Ireland traders moving their goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. They only apply if they've originated from the EU market, in other words routed via Ireland and NI to try and backdoor into GB.

    The Irish sea border is heavily bias on the GB to NI crossing (one-way) because it's in that direction that they're at risk of moving into the EU single market.
    The story I read was that his stuff is getting held up, and that he's been waiting for over a week for the HMRC get back to him on what the hold up is and which forms/codes he needs to use.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Gaussian said:

    NI has cost so much blood, money and attention that you have to wonder whether betraying the DUP and provoking a border poll isn't a deliberate strategy to try to get rid of it.
    Who cares about the DUP?

    The only voters Mr Johnson cares about (apart from the future historians assessing his neo-Churchillian image for posterity, I assume) are the backbenchers, and, slightly at a remove, the likes of HYUFD. Is HYUFD in favour of Irish reunification? (I don't know, actually.)
  • HYUFD said:

    No, as he will not allow indyref2.

    Plus there is a swing to No in the latest Scottish poll today.

    Yes down to just 45% including Don't Knows ie no change at all from 2014 despite Brexit

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20
    What's the swing from the previous Survation poll?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    HYUFD said:

    No, as he will not allow indyref2.
    In the same way that he solved the Irish Sea border question by not allowing it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    No, as he will not allow indyref2.

    Plus there is a swing to No in the latest Scottish poll today.

    Yes down to just 45% including Don't Knows ie no change at all from 2014 despite Brexit

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20
    You mean not including DKs (ie adding them to the Noes).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    HYUFD said:

    he will not allow indyref2.

    He can't stop it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Leon said:

    Is is pish, tho. Scotland would legally have been forced to quit the EU, then reapply, with all the complex renegotiations (over fishing, amongst others) that accession requires. The idea that Eastern European countries, which had to jump through decades of hoops to gain membership, would simply nod through a Scottish accession, is bonkers.

    Brexit has shown us this, surely? Leaving the EU is horribly complicated and rejoining, by anyone, is not gonna be a nice sunny picnic, done and dusted in weeks.

    For a start the EU/rUK would have had to renegotiate their OWN relationship, requiring a painful new Treaty, diminishing UK MEP numbers, and so on. Only when that was done, would the EU have been legally eqiuipped to turn to Scotland's eagerness to reapply.

    Rough guess: 5-10 years minimum.
    You’re one of those who’s repeatedly been telling us that the EU has deliberately made the process of leaving as difficult as possible in order to discourage anyone following our example.
    Why would this necessarily apply to the accession process ?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    Leon said:

    In about 2 years the Norns will realise they have won the lottery of life. They have automatic citizenship of the EU, and ALSO of the UK. Their companies can freely trade in the EU Single Market AND the UK Single Market. Investment is going to flood into Belfast. It will be like a Freeport.

    Why on earth would they give up this uniquely beneficial situation, so as to reunify with the South, which would risk renewed violence and sever them from the benefits of the UK? What's the point? Those who feel strongly "Irish" can have an Irish passport and the rest. Those who feel British can have an Irish and a UK passport. Such great good luck.

    I do not begrudge the Northern Irish this prize. They've had a hard time for decades. But it is a huge, ironic prize.



    Apart from anything else I believe reunification is subject to referendum by both sides. The mother of my son came from Dublin her father was strongly in favour of a united ireland but always said he would vote no because NI would cost too much to get back in raised taxes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111

    I suggest you do a bit more research, the Northern Irish are facing huge hurdles to get easy access to the UK single market, and vice versa.

    As one UK trader put it, it is easier for him to send a container to China than it is to send some stuff to NI.

    This is one of the reasons the DUP are prepping for a border poll.

    A potential 25% tariff to be imposed on steel imports to Northern Ireland not from Great Britain will ruin the industry, it has been warned.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/25-tariff-on-steel-imports-to-northern-ireland-ruinous-39974482.html

    The Norn Irish are about get the worst of all worlds.
    The opposite, NI stays in most of the SM and CU and avoids a hard border with Ireland while also benefiting from the UK and EU trade deal minimising the border in the Irish Sea.

    The NI economy is likely to grow faster than that of GB's therefore post Brexit.
  • All gone! No more 1.01 Trump to leave in 2021. There is still a small amount of 1.01 Trump not to leave before the end of his first term but that is still technically possible so I'd swerve that offer.
    And more 1.01 has appeared and is being taken.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    Scott_xP said:

    He can't stop it
    He can, he is the UK PM.

    We Tories have all the power now until 2024, not you, so tough.

    No referendum will be legal without UK government support.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    HYUFD said:

    The NI economy is likely to grow faster than that of GB's therefore post Brexit.

    Musicians from NI can continue to tour the EU while GB performers languish at home
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    It’s a bloke trying to be clever, it doesn’t mean much at all.
  • HYUFD said:

    The opposite, NI stays in most of the SM and CU and avoids a hard border with Ireland while also benefiting from the UK and EU trade deal minimising the border in the Irish Sea.

    The NI economy is likely to grow faster than that of GB's therefore post Brexit.
    Minimising the border in the Irish Sea?

    Hang on, there was no border in the Irish Sea before Brexit and Boris Johnson said he wouldn't put a border in the Irish Sea so I'm confused.

    So there's is a border in the Irish Sea and that's making things harder for the Northern Irish.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    HYUFD said:

    No, as he will not allow indyref2.

    Plus there is a swing to No in the latest Scottish poll today.

    Yes down to just 45% including Don't Knows ie no change at all from 2014 despite Brexit

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351492582468165632?s=20
    Eh? There were no Don’t Knows in 2014 if you are talking about the referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    edited January 2021

    In the same way that he solved the Irish Sea border question by not allowing it?
    NI still remains part of the UK and he also got a UK and EU trade deal.

    Boris is not going to risk a Scottish referendum that if lost would see him removed from No 10 the next day.

    Nationalists and leftwingers will have to get used to the fact that we Tories hold the power at Westminster until 2024, what we say goes until then.

    End of conversation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    HYUFD said:

    No referendum will be legal without UK government support.

    The SNP can call a referendum with the same legal weight as Brexit and BoZo can't stop them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    edited January 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Who cares about the DUP?

    The only voters Mr Johnson cares about (apart from the future historians assessing his neo-Churchillian image for posterity, I assume) are the backbenchers, and, slightly at a remove, the likes of HYUFD. Is HYUFD in favour of Irish reunification? (I don't know, actually.)
    Of course not, I am a Conservative and Unionist and a diehard one at that.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601


    Zzzzz.

    Today a president.

    Tomorrow a schmuck.
    Only if the Senate put the boot in.

    OK, not necessarily only if that, but it would certainly help.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    HYUFD said:

    He can, he is the UK PM.

    We Tories have all the power now until 2024, not you, so tough.

    No referendum will be legal without UK government support.
    Get you. :smile:
  • What would be the odds of this happening?

    Would be rather funny if it happened.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1351594295460040707
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390

    The story I read was that his stuff is getting held up, and that he's been waiting for over a week for the HMRC get back to him on what the hold up is and which forms/codes he needs to use.
    Yes, it sounds like a transition and readiness cock-up. Once in steady-state it will be easier than China.

    This is why I argued (consistently) before Christmas that both the NIP and TCA should include a 6-month transition period to the new arrangements, which in the end was only partly delivered for the former, so traders, and Governments, could get their processes and IT sorted.

    But, we went cold turkey.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kle4 said:

    Only if the Senate put the boot in.

    OK, not necessarily only if that, but it would certainly help.
    He’s a schmuck whatever happens with the Senate. T minus 1,147 minutes and counting.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    HYUFD said:

    Of course not, I am a Conservative and Unionist and a diehard one at that.

    Well thats the C and U are you also a national trust member?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    What would be the odds of this happening?

    Would be rather funny if it happened.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1351594295460040707

    That would be hilarious. Though as people have stated on here he once vetoed his own bill because he counted wrong, he may not be able to mark the moment so comedically perfectly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Of course not, I am a Conservative and Unionist and a diehard one at that.

    Hmm, if you put so much weight into opinion polling, and the polling consistently shows >50% wanting to have a referendum then you will need to support a reunification poll. Your party believes in the rule of law both internally and externally, the practice of diplomacy, and so on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    Scott_xP said:

    The SNP can call a referendum with the same legal weight as Brexit and BoZo can't stop them.
    It can't, the 2016 referendum was only legal with UK government and Westminster support.

    The Union is a reserved matter to Westminster.

    Plus even after the 2016 referendum the result was irrelevant without the consent of a majority of MPs at Westminster which did not happen until 2019
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    kle4 said:

    That would be hilarious. Though as people have stated on here he once vetoed his own bill because he counted wrong, he may not be able to mark the moment so comedically perfectly.
    What's in it for him? Seems to be his only calculation.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/opinion/good-riddance-leader-mcconnell.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    It can't, the 2016 referendum was only legal with UK government and Westminster support.

    The Union is a reserved matter to Westminster.

    Plus even after the 2016 referendum the result was irrelevant without the consent of a majority of MPs at Westminster which did not happen until 2019
    The SNP has a majority of MPs at Westminster.
  • RP. Just wanted to apologise for my comments to you earlier. The blatant misuse of figures to mislead gets me very angry - and yes that applies to both sides. But you didn't produce the dishonest tweet and it was wrong of me to be so rude to you. You are certainly not at fault for having differing views and I should have been more reasonable in my responses to you

    So you have my unreserved apology
    Accepted. And don't worry, I don't take offence. Hence the Handbags response...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    Carnyx said:

    Hmm, if you put so much weight into opinion polling, and the polling consistently shows >50% wanting to have a referendum then you will need to support a reunification poll. Your party believes in the rule of law both internally and externally, the practice of diplomacy, and so on.
    It would need that and more Nationalist votes than Unionist votes at both Assembly and Westminster elections.

    At present neither applies
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390
    Scott_xP said:

    Musicians from NI can continue to tour the EU while GB performers languish at home
    I'm calling bullshit on this.

    Yes, the deal wasn't ambitious enough on music visas but all it says is that rather than one EU musicians passport you need individual arrangements with each EU member state (just as the UK did before in its immigration policy for non-EU countries under Cameron, for example) so a "tour" just needs it sorting for the 6-8 countries you're playing in along with booking the flights and hotels.

    American musicians tour EU countries regularly, and British music is very commercially successful and popular in the EU, with a huge demand for it, so there will be very few takers for making life difficult for Sting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,111
    edited January 2021
    Carnyx said:

    The SNP has a majority of MPs at Westminster.
    No it doesn't, only the Tories have a majority of MPs at Westminster which is a UK Parliament not a Scotland only Parliament.

    Even Labour has more MPs than the SNP does
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    America is still deep in the sh*t. Biden has one hell of a job.
  • Scott_xP said:
    This isn't news - was widely reported as guaranteed to happen. The old customs system is not remotely capable of managing the number of transactions that our free trade deal requires. Hence they starting to build a new one. Except that its very very late.

    Hence the old system sitting down on the job despite UK - EU traffic being 15% of normal.
  • HYUFD said:

    No it doesn't, only the Tories have a majority of MPs at Westminster which is a UK Parliament not a Scotland only Parliament.

    Even Labour has more MPs than the SNP does
    You obviously missed my last post.

    Whats was the swing to No in the latest Survation Scottish poll from the last Survation Scottish poll?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609
    HYUFD is in front of a firing squad. There is a vote whether HYFUD should be shot. 6 people vote to save his life. 5 people vote to shoot him. Malc and I are don’t knows. HYUFD is shot.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390
    Almost certainly not. A base level of deaths would have occurred anyway, even with no 24-hour pass, and some of them are a function of the new Covid strain which wasn't foreseen at the time the first lockdown was eased. I suppose you can argue lockdown two should never have ended on the 2nd December, with no Tiered system, but that was very much a minority view. And some deaths in double to low triple figures would still have happened anyway.

    The cost can, and will, be calculated at some point. But the hyperbole doesn't help.
This discussion has been closed.