Cyclefree’s 2020 Awards – politicalbetting.com

System · December 2020

Cyclefree’s 2020 Awards – politicalbetting.com

Back by popular demand – mine. I have to do something to while away the time in my lonely barn halfway up a sheep-ridden hillside, wrapped up in scarves and mittens, pencil stub between my fingers, teeth chattering, the stormy wind howling outside, rain lashing the windows, like some minor character in Dr Zhivago or Jane Eyre with no-… (“Enough with the clichés! Get on with it!” Ed).

Read the full story here

Benpointer · December 2020

First

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

First like Trump.

MarqueeMark · December 2020

Last thread was getting a bit long - 1400+ posts!

kle4 · December 2020

Given the author, not surprised that the first two awards are focused on the legally focused ministers.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626

IanB2 · December 2020

Did I imagine that ‘specific and limited’ was Brandon Lewis?

kle4 · December 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626

The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him? Boris must have at one point as the man helped in his leadership campaign and got a nice job in return, but he really doesn't seem to have any online fans at all. It would be such a quick win to sack him, who is going to get upset on his behalf?

Benpointer · December 2020

Very witty thread header @Cyclefree - Marina Hyde better watch out!

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626
The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him? Boris must have at one point as the man helped in his leadership campaign and got a nice job in return, but he really doesn't seem to have any online fans at all. It would be such a quick win to sack him, who is going to get upset on his behalf?

As a former Chief Whip and campaign manager for the last two winning candidates for the Tory leadership, Gavin Williamson knows where all the bodies are buried.

Never piss off a former chief whip.

kle4 · December 2020

RochdalePioneers said:
Over-promise. Under-deliver.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344308841278828545

Obviously the government isn't producing them, but any word on why the underdelivery is so stark?

Theuniondivvie · December 2020

Cough - Robert Buckland

Carnyx · December 2020

Carnyx said:

show previous quotes
ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

Flatlander said:

Stocky said:

MattW said:

Stocky said:
A cheeky question for the lawyers out there.

@Gallowgate ?

I may have a chance to buy 1/3rd acre of land behind by garden. I currently rent it from the landowner. How can a fair price be established? Would it be a multiple of the rent or is there a per acre guide for "garden land". There is no development potential and the land is on a slope and is no use to a farmer or as a horse paddock.

Alternatively, would the adjusted garden size - which would be increasing sixfold I guess - put value on my house? And if so would the current landowner argue for the extra value?

Finally, would there be a separate land ownership for the land in isolation with the land registry, or would the boundaries of my current plot be expanded to envelope the new land? Are there any stamp duty implications either way?

Any help much appreciated.
I disagree with most of the others on this except perhaps @TimT and @MarqueeMark.

It is a marketplace of one buyer and one seller, so considerations such as "fair market price" are peripheral at best. It is worth what you will buy it for and the Great Estate will sell it for, nothing else.

You need to put yourself in their head and do a cost benefit from their point of view.

I would punt that they have let it for a relative peppercorn because it saves them having to spend some time and £200-£500 a year + admin managing it.

I would say it may add value to your house, but perhaps only 1-3%, for the correct buyer. If your street is all samey then it is an advantage.

Planning: the content of the rental agreement is private, and therefore not a Relevant Planning Matter; they could claim it was an elephant for all it matters. Though long term proven usage as a garden may give you a right to do so by prescription if no one has attempted to enforce. You would need I think 10 years proven use. Perhaps buy it with "can't be sure it is garden" as your argument, then serve your proof on the Council later. Though the GE surely know their planning stuff.

Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years, whether the transaction is big enough to be worth the bother etc. They could use it eg as part of the compulsory 10% open space in a medium sized estate to allow more houses on the flat bit, or as a quid pro quo to make another development acceptable (which was what Sarah Beeny did).

Don't forget that in a couple of years they may be able to gain an income from "public funds for public goods" by turning it into a wildlife meadow or a copse.

I would say that anything under 20k will not be worth the hassle for them, so perhaps start with 20k + an overage clause, and willing to go to double or treble that, and paying costs. Expect maybe 2k to 5k costs if you have a custom agreement. You could even offer a preemptive right ro repurchase at double plus land inflation.

Can you get some neighbours to make parallel offers, to make it a bigger deal?

On the parcel, you either have the buggeration of combining now, or of combining them when you sell. I would do it now, as time is of the essence when selling.

There is a sweet spot for you in that Stamp Duty does not apply (I think) on transactions under 40k.

Gosh @MattW that`s a great post - I don`t know where to start. (And @Gallowgate for your continued interest.)

A few things:

You ask "Can you get an area TPO on the whole thing before you conversation, such that it will make it a little less attractive as potential development?" My garden is in a conservation area. The land in question is just the other side of the conservation area boundary. There are fruit trees and a few conifers on the land. I don`t think a TPO is relevant.

The current rent that I pay to the Estate is £600 pa and this tends to rise with inflation. So not a peppercorn. Basically, I`ve been paying for the privilege of cutting the grass and the boundary hedges!

DavidL suggested 5 x this and I said that, knowing the Estate, they would not accept less than 25x. Your comments of £20k plus (plus costs) makes sense to me (getting into their head, as you say). The way I look at it is that I am committed to £600 plus inflation each year. I know I`m not really committed - but I am in reality because the land connects to my garden and I feel that it is essential to protect my outlook. (The land does not connect to anyone else`s garden.) Put simply, I wouldn`t want anyone else to rent it or own it. We have no plans to move ever so regarding this as a £600 pa plus inflation commitment leads me to think that paying, say, £30k one-off to extinguish this annual commitment is a good deal for me regardless of the value it may put on my house.

What would make it much less attractive to me is if they do like they usually do and impose restrictive covenants. I would want to have the scope of erecting a treehouse and possibly a greenhouse which the covenants usually prohibit. Mainly I would use it as a wildflower meadow and plant additional trees. it would be an environmental project for me. "Public funds for public goods" would, I think, imply public access, which would not be relevant in this case.

You say "Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years". Yes, it is an awkward parcel and is on a gradient so severe that I have to take it diagonally with my ride-on mower. It is of no use to a farmer or horse owner and could never be developed.

Regarding combining parcels of land, wouldn`t ot be better to keep them separate to give any prospective future buyer of our house the option of having a smaller garden or a really big one?

You can definitely used to get grants to plant trees regardless of public access. 1/3 acre might be a bit small though. There also used to be stewardship schemes although it isn't clear what these are going to be replaced with yet.

What is the soil type? Is there any interesting botany? Planting trees isn't always the best thing to do.
Loam/Sandy soil. I was going to plant a copse of silver birch, a UK native which is excellent for wildlife and will reference others in the area. Wildflower meadow in a chunk of the rest. No interesting botany as far as I am aware. I`m open to suggestions, though must be UK native planting. Anything to help bees and moths and other insects gets a thumbs up from me.
I misread that, and was wondering whose corpse you were planning to plant.
Might be worth looking at the Bumblebee Conservation Trust website for ideas. Ditto Woodland Trust. Of course, you may already have done so.
In the full,knowledge I will regret asking this:

Why do you want to turn the Bumblebee Conservation Trust and Woodland Trust into corpses and bury them?
Sorry - was mentally replying to the OP @Stocky. My apologies. I actually support both charities!

FPT - apologies again.

And thanks to Cyclefree for a nicely tart and sharp header with a badly needed finale.

williamglenn · December 2020

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626
The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him? Boris must have at one point as the man helped in his leadership campaign and got a nice job in return, but he really doesn't seem to have any online fans at all. It would be such a quick win to sack him, who is going to get upset on his behalf?

He said about the last PM: "I made her – and I can break her."

kle4 · December 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:

show previous quotes
kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626
The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him? Boris must have at one point as the man helped in his leadership campaign and got a nice job in return, but he really doesn't seem to have any online fans at all. It would be such a quick win to sack him, who is going to get upset on his behalf?
As a former Chief Whip and campaign manager for the last two winning candidates for the Tory leadership, Gavin Williamson knows where all the bodies are buried.

Never piss off a former chief whip.

Make him Chief Whip again then perhaps? A role he is used to, and one that will keep him out of the public eye whilst ensuring he is catered to.

kle4 · December 2020

Theuniondivvie said:
Cough - Robert Buckland

Is having a Tory minister in your throat a new symptom of Covid-19? Even if not, it seems serious and you should be checked out - best wishes, my friend.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2020

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
RochdalePioneers said:
Over-promise. Under-deliver.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344308841278828545
Obviously the government isn't producing them, but any word on why the underdelivery is so stark?

What is even more surprising is the AZN one is based upon long established approaches, so you would think manufacturing would be reasonably straight forward, compared to the mRNA ones that is all totally new and untried at scale.

30 million just for the UK by September seemed a big boast, but November they said 4 million in 2 months, no problemo...and they only made 500k. Something has gone seriously wrong.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

Theuniondivvie said:
Cough - Robert Buckland

Fixed now, thanks.

Theuniondivvie · December 2020

https://twitter.com/jimmytabuk/status/1344340899589992450?s=20

ydoethur · December 2020

‘There she gave much entertainment to fellow lawyers with her feeble understanding of international law and weak defence of the Internal Markets Bill just in time for it to be withdrawn in return for some mess of pottage somewhere in the Brexit Deal’s 1,246 pages. She capped it with some toe-curling nonsense before the Court of Appeal asking it to ignore the law to extend the sentence imposed on the killers of PC Andrew Harper.’

You might have linked that with your Honorable Mention on Creative Defences. After all, one reason why Cummings was in no danger of prosecution is that she publicly stated it’s fine to break the law if your family circumstances make it moderately difficult to comply.

ydoethur · December 2020

Carnyx said:

show previous quotes
Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

Flatlander said:

Stocky said:

MattW said:

Stocky said:
A cheeky question for the lawyers out there.

@Gallowgate ?

I may have a chance to buy 1/3rd acre of land behind by garden. I currently rent it from the landowner. How can a fair price be established? Would it be a multiple of the rent or is there a per acre guide for "garden land". There is no development potential and the land is on a slope and is no use to a farmer or as a horse paddock.

Alternatively, would the adjusted garden size - which would be increasing sixfold I guess - put value on my house? And if so would the current landowner argue for the extra value?

Finally, would there be a separate land ownership for the land in isolation with the land registry, or would the boundaries of my current plot be expanded to envelope the new land? Are there any stamp duty implications either way?

Any help much appreciated.
I disagree with most of the others on this except perhaps @TimT and @MarqueeMark.

It is a marketplace of one buyer and one seller, so considerations such as "fair market price" are peripheral at best. It is worth what you will buy it for and the Great Estate will sell it for, nothing else.

You need to put yourself in their head and do a cost benefit from their point of view.

I would punt that they have let it for a relative peppercorn because it saves them having to spend some time and £200-£500 a year + admin managing it.

I would say it may add value to your house, but perhaps only 1-3%, for the correct buyer. If your street is all samey then it is an advantage.

Planning: the content of the rental agreement is private, and therefore not a Relevant Planning Matter; they could claim it was an elephant for all it matters. Though long term proven usage as a garden may give you a right to do so by prescription if no one has attempted to enforce. You would need I think 10 years proven use. Perhaps buy it with "can't be sure it is garden" as your argument, then serve your proof on the Council later. Though the GE surely know their planning stuff.

Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years, whether the transaction is big enough to be worth the bother etc. They could use it eg as part of the compulsory 10% open space in a medium sized estate to allow more houses on the flat bit, or as a quid pro quo to make another development acceptable (which was what Sarah Beeny did).

Don't forget that in a couple of years they may be able to gain an income from "public funds for public goods" by turning it into a wildlife meadow or a copse.

I would say that anything under 20k will not be worth the hassle for them, so perhaps start with 20k + an overage clause, and willing to go to double or treble that, and paying costs. Expect maybe 2k to 5k costs if you have a custom agreement. You could even offer a preemptive right ro repurchase at double plus land inflation.

Can you get some neighbours to make parallel offers, to make it a bigger deal?

On the parcel, you either have the buggeration of combining now, or of combining them when you sell. I would do it now, as time is of the essence when selling.

There is a sweet spot for you in that Stamp Duty does not apply (I think) on transactions under 40k.

Gosh @MattW that`s a great post - I don`t know where to start. (And @Gallowgate for your continued interest.)

A few things:

You ask "Can you get an area TPO on the whole thing before you conversation, such that it will make it a little less attractive as potential development?" My garden is in a conservation area. The land in question is just the other side of the conservation area boundary. There are fruit trees and a few conifers on the land. I don`t think a TPO is relevant.

The current rent that I pay to the Estate is £600 pa and this tends to rise with inflation. So not a peppercorn. Basically, I`ve been paying for the privilege of cutting the grass and the boundary hedges!

DavidL suggested 5 x this and I said that, knowing the Estate, they would not accept less than 25x. Your comments of £20k plus (plus costs) makes sense to me (getting into their head, as you say). The way I look at it is that I am committed to £600 plus inflation each year. I know I`m not really committed - but I am in reality because the land connects to my garden and I feel that it is essential to protect my outlook. (The land does not connect to anyone else`s garden.) Put simply, I wouldn`t want anyone else to rent it or own it. We have no plans to move ever so regarding this as a £600 pa plus inflation commitment leads me to think that paying, say, £30k one-off to extinguish this annual commitment is a good deal for me regardless of the value it may put on my house.

What would make it much less attractive to me is if they do like they usually do and impose restrictive covenants. I would want to have the scope of erecting a treehouse and possibly a greenhouse which the covenants usually prohibit. Mainly I would use it as a wildflower meadow and plant additional trees. it would be an environmental project for me. "Public funds for public goods" would, I think, imply public access, which would not be relevant in this case.

You say "Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years". Yes, it is an awkward parcel and is on a gradient so severe that I have to take it diagonally with my ride-on mower. It is of no use to a farmer or horse owner and could never be developed.

Regarding combining parcels of land, wouldn`t ot be better to keep them separate to give any prospective future buyer of our house the option of having a smaller garden or a really big one?

You can definitely used to get grants to plant trees regardless of public access. 1/3 acre might be a bit small though. There also used to be stewardship schemes although it isn't clear what these are going to be replaced with yet.

What is the soil type? Is there any interesting botany? Planting trees isn't always the best thing to do.
Loam/Sandy soil. I was going to plant a copse of silver birch, a UK native which is excellent for wildlife and will reference others in the area. Wildflower meadow in a chunk of the rest. No interesting botany as far as I am aware. I`m open to suggestions, though must be UK native planting. Anything to help bees and moths and other insects gets a thumbs up from me.
I misread that, and was wondering whose corpse you were planning to plant.
Might be worth looking at the Bumblebee Conservation Trust website for ideas. Ditto Woodland Trust. Of course, you may already have done so.
In the full,knowledge I will regret asking this:

Why do you want to turn the Bumblebee Conservation Trust and Woodland Trust into corpses and bury them?
Sorry - was mentally replying to the OP @Stocky. My apologies. I actually support both charities!
FPT - apologies again.

And thanks to Cyclefree for a nicely tart and sharp header with a badly needed finale.

I was wondering if perhaps Gavin Williamson was a patron...

Benpointer · December 2020

RochdalePioneers said:
Over-promise. Under-deliver.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344308841278828545

How on earth can we only have 530k doses?

Presumably they have been manufacturing these flat out since the summer in the hope/expectation that they would be approved?

Could someone at AstraZenaca just let us know the precise position?

YBarddCwsc · December 2020

I agree that the Heroes of the Year are the scientists who have developed the vaccine.

It is only because we have a number of different vaccines that there is any real hope.

It is an astonishing achievement to have developed multiple vaccines for a completely unknown disease from scratch in under a year.

If only scientists made as much fuss about what they do as the lawyers & politicians ...

Roger · December 2020

That's very good. well done cyclefree!

ydoethur · December 2020

Theuniondivvie said:
Cough - Robert Buckland

Coughing at Robert Buckland, however deserved, would be considered assault, so I would advise against it.

MarqueeMark · December 2020

Fat-shaming of Mr Frost is a low blow, Ms. Cyclefree. The poor bugger has had to survive on a year-long diet of going-cold pizza....

Omnium · December 2020

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626
The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him? Boris must have at one point as the man helped in his leadership campaign and got a nice job in return, but he really doesn't seem to have any online fans at all. It would be such a quick win to sack him, who is going to get upset on his behalf?

I think it's quite likely that someone here will have backed him at short odds to be next PM during May's exit.

I guess the usual suspects here represent perhaps 20% of the political betting market, and when you add in the less frequent posters and the lurkers then perhaps 50%?

(Just BF markets)

alex_ · December 2020

Apparently all planned second doses of Pfizer vaccine have been cancelled as of next week. Where that leaves those who were expecting to receive them, who knows? And do we have the guaranteed supplies from Pfizer to ensure that they ever will get their second dose?

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

Must read thread

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344323024770781185

I did like these, but there's plenty of gold in that Twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344331281459458049

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344342636992331776

rottenborough · December 2020

Excellent header which I have enjoyed reading. Thanks @Cyclefree

Mexicanpete · December 2020

Another award winning Cyclefree header.

What about the December Manager of the month award going to Boris Johnson?

Nigelb · December 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:

show previous quotes
kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Over-promise. Under-deliver.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344308841278828545
Obviously the government isn't producing them, but any word on why the underdelivery is so stark?
What is even more surprising is the AZN one is based upon long established approaches, so you would think manufacturing would be reasonably straight forward, compared to the mRNA ones that is all totally new and untried at scale.

30 million just for the UK by September seemed a big boast, but November they said 4 million in 2 months, no problemo...and they only made 500k. Something has gone seriously wrong.

@Charles might be able to comment on this ?

I believe there is some delay in turning a ‘stockpile’ into usable product that can be shipped, since it then has a relatively limited shelf life, and there was uncertainty about the approval date until now.
Or there might have been some manufacturing error.

kle4 · December 2020

YBarddCwsc said:

I agree that the Heroes of the Year are the scientists who have developed the vaccine.

It is only because we have a number of different vaccines that there is any real hope.

It is an astonishing achievement to have developed multiple vaccines for a completely unknown disease from scratch in under a year.

Even if accomplishments arise through standing on the shoulders of giants, it is a tremendous accomplishment.

Apparently there's a limit on how many people can share a Nobel prize, so for once the honours system will be of great use - no limit to how many of those can receive awards, the ones from here and other places in the commonwealth at least, and other places can appropriately recognise the rest).

Floater · December 2020

Supermarket update - 75 off - 19 positives

Carnyx · December 2020

ydoethur said:

show previous quotes
Carnyx said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

Flatlander said:

Stocky said:

MattW said:

Stocky said:
A cheeky question for the lawyers out there.

@Gallowgate ?

I may have a chance to buy 1/3rd acre of land behind by garden. I currently rent it from the landowner. How can a fair price be established? Would it be a multiple of the rent or is there a per acre guide for "garden land". There is no development potential and the land is on a slope and is no use to a farmer or as a horse paddock.

Alternatively, would the adjusted garden size - which would be increasing sixfold I guess - put value on my house? And if so would the current landowner argue for the extra value?

Finally, would there be a separate land ownership for the land in isolation with the land registry, or would the boundaries of my current plot be expanded to envelope the new land? Are there any stamp duty implications either way?

Any help much appreciated.
I disagree with most of the others on this except perhaps @TimT and @MarqueeMark.

It is a marketplace of one buyer and one seller, so considerations such as "fair market price" are peripheral at best. It is worth what you will buy it for and the Great Estate will sell it for, nothing else.

You need to put yourself in their head and do a cost benefit from their point of view.

I would punt that they have let it for a relative peppercorn because it saves them having to spend some time and £200-£500 a year + admin managing it.

I would say it may add value to your house, but perhaps only 1-3%, for the correct buyer. If your street is all samey then it is an advantage.

Planning: the content of the rental agreement is private, and therefore not a Relevant Planning Matter; they could claim it was an elephant for all it matters. Though long term proven usage as a garden may give you a right to do so by prescription if no one has attempted to enforce. You would need I think 10 years proven use. Perhaps buy it with "can't be sure it is garden" as your argument, then serve your proof on the Council later. Though the GE surely know their planning stuff.

Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years, whether the transaction is big enough to be worth the bother etc. They could use it eg as part of the compulsory 10% open space in a medium sized estate to allow more houses on the flat bit, or as a quid pro quo to make another development acceptable (which was what Sarah Beeny did).

Don't forget that in a couple of years they may be able to gain an income from "public funds for public goods" by turning it into a wildlife meadow or a copse.

I would say that anything under 20k will not be worth the hassle for them, so perhaps start with 20k + an overage clause, and willing to go to double or treble that, and paying costs. Expect maybe 2k to 5k costs if you have a custom agreement. You could even offer a preemptive right ro repurchase at double plus land inflation.

Can you get some neighbours to make parallel offers, to make it a bigger deal?

On the parcel, you either have the buggeration of combining now, or of combining them when you sell. I would do it now, as time is of the essence when selling.

There is a sweet spot for you in that Stamp Duty does not apply (I think) on transactions under 40k.

Gosh @MattW that`s a great post - I don`t know where to start. (And @Gallowgate for your continued interest.)

A few things:

You ask "Can you get an area TPO on the whole thing before you conversation, such that it will make it a little less attractive as potential development?" My garden is in a conservation area. The land in question is just the other side of the conservation area boundary. There are fruit trees and a few conifers on the land. I don`t think a TPO is relevant.

The current rent that I pay to the Estate is £600 pa and this tends to rise with inflation. So not a peppercorn. Basically, I`ve been paying for the privilege of cutting the grass and the boundary hedges!

DavidL suggested 5 x this and I said that, knowing the Estate, they would not accept less than 25x. Your comments of £20k plus (plus costs) makes sense to me (getting into their head, as you say). The way I look at it is that I am committed to £600 plus inflation each year. I know I`m not really committed - but I am in reality because the land connects to my garden and I feel that it is essential to protect my outlook. (The land does not connect to anyone else`s garden.) Put simply, I wouldn`t want anyone else to rent it or own it. We have no plans to move ever so regarding this as a £600 pa plus inflation commitment leads me to think that paying, say, £30k one-off to extinguish this annual commitment is a good deal for me regardless of the value it may put on my house.

What would make it much less attractive to me is if they do like they usually do and impose restrictive covenants. I would want to have the scope of erecting a treehouse and possibly a greenhouse which the covenants usually prohibit. Mainly I would use it as a wildflower meadow and plant additional trees. it would be an environmental project for me. "Public funds for public goods" would, I think, imply public access, which would not be relevant in this case.

You say "Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years". Yes, it is an awkward parcel and is on a gradient so severe that I have to take it diagonally with my ride-on mower. It is of no use to a farmer or horse owner and could never be developed.

Regarding combining parcels of land, wouldn`t ot be better to keep them separate to give any prospective future buyer of our house the option of having a smaller garden or a really big one?

You can definitely used to get grants to plant trees regardless of public access. 1/3 acre might be a bit small though. There also used to be stewardship schemes although it isn't clear what these are going to be replaced with yet.

What is the soil type? Is there any interesting botany? Planting trees isn't always the best thing to do.
Loam/Sandy soil. I was going to plant a copse of silver birch, a UK native which is excellent for wildlife and will reference others in the area. Wildflower meadow in a chunk of the rest. No interesting botany as far as I am aware. I`m open to suggestions, though must be UK native planting. Anything to help bees and moths and other insects gets a thumbs up from me.
I misread that, and was wondering whose corpse you were planning to plant.
Might be worth looking at the Bumblebee Conservation Trust website for ideas. Ditto Woodland Trust. Of course, you may already have done so.
In the full,knowledge I will regret asking this:

Why do you want to turn the Bumblebee Conservation Trust and Woodland Trust into corpses and bury them?
Sorry - was mentally replying to the OP @Stocky. My apologies. I actually support both charities!
FPT - apologies again.

And thanks to Cyclefree for a nicely tart and sharp header with a badly needed finale.
I was wondering if perhaps Gavin Williamson was a patron...

Bees aren't arachnids, but are [edit] fellow arthropods. However, the Trusts do carry out educational activities, so ...

Carnyx · December 2020

Theuniondivvie said:
https://twitter.com/jimmytabuk/status/1344340899589992450?s=20

I'm surprised Mr JOhnson doesn't already do that. It's certainly worldbeating and it comes from overseas when you look more closely.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2020

Nigelb said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Over-promise. Under-deliver.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344308841278828545
Obviously the government isn't producing them, but any word on why the underdelivery is so stark?
What is even more surprising is the AZN one is based upon long established approaches, so you would think manufacturing would be reasonably straight forward, compared to the mRNA ones that is all totally new and untried at scale.

30 million just for the UK by September seemed a big boast, but November they said 4 million in 2 months, no problemo...and they only made 500k. Something has gone seriously wrong.
@Charles might be able to comment on this ?

I believe there is some delay in turning a ‘stockpile’ into usable product that can be shipped, since it then has a relatively limited shelf life, and there was uncertainty about the approval date until now.
Or there might have been some manufacturing error.

They subcontractored it to Wockhardt, the massive Indian company that specializes in mass production of drugs under licence. Again on the surface all very sensible stuff.

But way out of my area of expertise.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

https://twitter.com/DavidMills73/status/1344345623068356609

SandyRentool · December 2020

I now have a mental image of Priti and The Truss mud wrestling.

Thank you Cyclefree!

AnneJGP · December 2020

alex_ said:
Apparently all planned second doses of Pfizer vaccine have been cancelled as of next week. Where that leaves those who were expecting to receive them, who knows? And do we have the guaranteed supplies from Pfizer to ensure that they ever will get their second dose?

It may turn out to be a good thing, if it leaves them (as a cohort) less eager to throw off all restraint whilst the non-vaccinated still have to take their chances.

Good evening, everyone.

MarqueeMark · December 2020

SandyRentool said:
I now have a mental image of Priti and The Truss mud wrestling.

Thank you Cyclefree!

One sick puppy......

Stocky · December 2020

SandyRentool said:
I now have a mental image of Priti and The Truss mud wrestling.

Thank you Cyclefree!

Priti would batter Truss.

Charles · December 2020

Nigelb said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Over-promise. Under-deliver.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344308841278828545
Obviously the government isn't producing them, but any word on why the underdelivery is so stark?
What is even more surprising is the AZN one is based upon long established approaches, so you would think manufacturing would be reasonably straight forward, compared to the mRNA ones that is all totally new and untried at scale.

30 million just for the UK by September seemed a big boast, but November they said 4 million in 2 months, no problemo...and they only made 500k. Something has gone seriously wrong.
@Charles might be able to comment on this ?

I believe there is some delay in turning a ‘stockpile’ into usable product that can be shipped, since it then has a relatively limited shelf life, and there was uncertainty about the approval date until now.
Or there might have been some manufacturing error.

That’s my understanding - AZ was making the base product but then it needed reconstitution plus fill/finish

Possibly scrappage for being out of dice as well.

geoffw · December 2020

Charles said:

show previous quotes
Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Over-promise. Under-deliver.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344308841278828545
Obviously the government isn't producing them, but any word on why the underdelivery is so stark?
What is even more surprising is the AZN one is based upon long established approaches, so you would think manufacturing would be reasonably straight forward, compared to the mRNA ones that is all totally new and untried at scale.

30 million just for the UK by September seemed a big boast, but November they said 4 million in 2 months, no problemo...and they only made 500k. Something has gone seriously wrong.
@Charles might be able to comment on this ?

I believe there is some delay in turning a ‘stockpile’ into usable product that can be shipped, since it then has a relatively limited shelf life, and there was uncertainty about the approval date until now.
Or there might have been some manufacturing error.
That’s my understanding - AZ was making the base product but then it needed reconstitution plus fill/finish

Possibly scrappage for being out of dice as well.

So it is dicey.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

Stocky said:

show previous quotes
SandyRentool said:
I now have a mental image of Priti and The Truss mud wrestling.

Thank you Cyclefree!
Priti would batter Truss.

Nah, Liz grew up in Yorkshire and thus is a Yorkshire lass, Yorkshire lasses are hard as nails.

Truss would batter southern softie that is Patel.

geoffw · December 2020

Who gets the award for spleen venting, @Cyclefree?

contrarian · December 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Must read thread

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344323024770781185

I did like these, but there's plenty of gold in that Twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344331281459458049

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344342636992331776

Of course Richard B Russell was.....er.....a democrat Senator

Roger · December 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Must read thread

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344323024770781185

I did like these, but there's plenty of gold in that Twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344331281459458049

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344342636992331776

Sid and Doris doesn't come close.

Omnium · December 2020

SandyRentool said:
I now have a mental image of Priti and The Truss mud wrestling.

Thank you Cyclefree!

You'd probably be in less trouble than if I said that they were both rather lovely.

I'd certainly not risk saying such a thing of course.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

There was me thinking the Pacers were the UK's last shitty trains

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1344348153571586067

DecrepiterJohnL · December 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626

Greenwich is not on the list, the place Williamson wanted to sue. Oversight or revenge?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55487641

alednam · December 2020

alex_ said:
Apparently all planned second doses of Pfizer vaccine have been cancelled as of next week. Where that leaves those who were expecting to receive them, who knows? And do we have the guaranteed supplies from Pfizer to ensure that they ever will get their second dose?

If you believe Zahawi, then those who've received cancellations of dose 2 will be contacted to have their appointment rescheduled. They've decided on a bigger gap between Dose 1 and Dose 2 for Pfizer. Presumably they'll use the time got by posptponement of appointments for Pfizer 2, to do Astrazeneca 1. And insofar as Astrazeneca is being promoted for the time being, I don't suppose they'll run out of such Pfizer vaccine as needed for those who've had one dose (even if it's coming to be in shorter supply).

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1344349922909413377

kle4 · December 2020

contrarian said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
Must read thread

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344323024770781185

I did like these, but there's plenty of gold in that Twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344331281459458049

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344342636992331776
Of course Richard B Russell was.....er.....a democrat Senator

It was a different time. Parties change.

Carnyx · December 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
There was me thinking the Pacers were the UK's last shitty trains

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1344348153571586067

To think they've been dumping shite on the tracks for all those centuries* when they could be powering the trains with the stuff.

*Still are, in one or two holdouts, I believe.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2020

Ireland returns to a full lockdown for a month.

alex_ · December 2020

alednam said:

show previous quotes
alex_ said:
Apparently all planned second doses of Pfizer vaccine have been cancelled as of next week. Where that leaves those who were expecting to receive them, who knows? And do we have the guaranteed supplies from Pfizer to ensure that they ever will get their second dose?
If you believe Zahawi, then those who've received cancellations of dose 2 will be contacted to have their appointment rescheduled. They've decided on a bigger gap between Dose 1 and Dose 2 for Pfizer. Presumably they'll use the time got by posptponement of appointments for Pfizer 2, to do Astrazeneca 1. And insofar as Astrazeneca is being promoted for the time being, I don't suppose they'll run out of such Pfizer vaccine as needed for those who've had one dose (even if it's coming to be in shorter supply).

O i see - so they won't be using the expected Pfizer second doses as new first doses, but will simply be putting them to one side to increase distribution capacity for AZ part 1 doses? And then bringing them back in a few weeks?

FrancisUrquhart · December 2020

BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh asks the prime minister how many people will be immunised each week - "because surely it needs to be in the millions".

Mr Johnson says: "The best answer I can give at the moment is we will have tens of millions of doses by the end of March. We're working to get the programme going as fast we can.

"I don't want to give you specific numbers at the moment, but I can tell you that we are shifting heaven and earth to roll them out as fast as we can."

Prof Van-Tam adds that it's "probably not the best idea" to look at December and how the NHS vaccination programme has started so far with the Pfizer vaccine, and to overlay that with "kitchen-table mathematics" as to how that'll scale up from January to March.

williamglenn · December 2020

https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21

ydoethur · December 2020

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21

If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?

londonpubman · December 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Ireland returns to a full lockdown for a month.

We need that here too (including schools). As a minimum.

Sorry to sound like a broken record!

Carnyx · December 2020

ydoethur said:

show previous quotes
williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21
If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?

Washington wasn't that shite. He won. Mr Trump didn't.

kle4 · December 2020

Carnyx said:

show previous quotes
ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21
If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?
Washington wasn't that shite. He won. Mr Trump didn't.

Better politician than general?

Phil · December 2020

contrarian said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
Must read thread

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344323024770781185

I did like these, but there's plenty of gold in that Twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344331281459458049

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344342636992331776
Of course Richard B Russell was.....er.....a democrat Senator

You are aware that the Republicans and Democrats played swapsies in the post-WWII period over who got to be the extra-specially racist party in order to attract the white supremacist southern vote? There was a name for it in the Republican party & everything. A strategy I believe they called it...

Marfcartoonist · December 2020

Happy New Year, everyone! Stay safe and out of that mutant Covid's path! Wishing you all a vaccine asap. Looking forward to Spring ....

Malmesbury · December 2020

Carnyx said:

show previous quotes
ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21
If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?
Washington wasn't that shite. He won. Mr Trump didn't.

"slave owning" - yup
"racist" - yup
"corrupt" ?
"land thieving" - do you mean Indian land?
"traitor" - "Treason doth never prosper. What's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason."

MattW · December 2020

FPT:

IanB2 said:

show previous quotes
Stocky said:

MattW said:

Stocky said:
A cheeky question for the lawyers out there.

@Gallowgate ?

I may have a chance to buy 1/3rd acre of land behind by garden. I currently rent it from the landowner. How can a fair price be established? Would it be a multiple of the rent or is there a per acre guide for "garden land". There is no development potential and the land is on a slope and is no use to a farmer or as a horse paddock.

Alternatively, would the adjusted garden size - which would be increasing sixfold I guess - put value on my house? And if so would the current landowner argue for the extra value?

Finally, would there be a separate land ownership for the land in isolation with the land registry, or would the boundaries of my current plot be expanded to envelope the new land? Are there any stamp duty implications either way?

Any help much appreciated.
I disagree with most of the others on this except perhaps @TimT and @MarqueeMark.

It is a marketplace of one buyer and one seller, so considerations such as "fair market price" are peripheral at best. It is worth what you will buy it for and the Great Estate will sell it for, nothing else.

You need to put yourself in their head and do a cost benefit from their point of view.

I would punt that they have let it for a relative peppercorn because it saves them having to spend some time and £200-£500 a year + admin managing it.

I would say it may add value to your house, but perhaps only 1-3%, for the correct buyer. If your street is all samey then it is an advantage.

Planning: the content of the rental agreement is private, and therefore not a Relevant Planning Matter; they could claim it was an elephant for all it matters. Though long term proven usage as a garden may give you a right to do so by prescription if no one has attempted to enforce. You would need I think 10 years proven use. Perhaps buy it with "can't be sure it is garden" as your argument, then serve your proof on the Council later. Though the GE surely know their planning stuff.

Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years, whether the transaction is big enough to be worth the bother etc. They could use it eg as part of the compulsory 10% open space in a medium sized estate to allow more houses on the flat bit, or as a quid pro quo to make another development acceptable (which was what Sarah Beeny did).

Don't forget that in a couple of years they may be able to gain an income from "public funds for public goods" by turning it into a wildlife meadow or a copse.

I would say that anything under 20k will not be worth the hassle for them, so perhaps start with 20k + an overage clause, and willing to go to double or treble that, and paying costs. Expect maybe 2k to 5k costs if you have a custom agreement. You could even offer a preemptive right ro repurchase at double plus land inflation.

Can you get some neighbours to make parallel offers, to make it a bigger deal?

On the parcel, you either have the buggeration of combining now, or of combining them when you sell. I would do it now, as time is of the essence when selling.

There is a sweet spot for you in that Stamp Duty does not apply (I think) on transactions under 40k.

Gosh @MattW that`s a great post - I don`t know where to start. (And @Gallowgate for your continued interest.)

A few things:

You ask "Can you get an area TPO on the whole thing before you conversation, such that it will make it a little less attractive as potential development?" My garden is in a conservation area. The land in question is just the other side of the conservation area boundary. There are fruit trees and a few conifers on the land. I don`t think a TPO is relevant.

The current rent that I pay to the Estate is £600 pa and this tends to rise with inflation. So not a peppercorn. Basically, I`ve been paying for the privilege of cutting the grass and the boundary hedges!

DavidL suggested 5 x this and I said that, knowing the Estate, they would not accept less than 25x. Your comments of £20k plus (plus costs) makes sense to me (getting into their head, as you say). The way I look at it is that I am committed to £600 plus inflation each year. I know I`m not really committed - but I am in reality because the land connects to my garden and I feel that it is essential to protect my outlook. (The land does not connect to anyone else`s garden.) Put simply, I wouldn`t want anyone else to rent it or own it. We have no plans to move ever so regarding this as a £600 pa plus inflation commitment leads me to think that paying, say, £30k one-off to extinguish this annual commitment is a good deal for me regardless of the value it may put on my house.

What would make it much less attractive to me is if they do like they usually do and impose restrictive covenants. I would want to have the scope of erecting a treehouse and possibly a greenhouse which the covenants usually prohibit. Mainly I would use it as a wildflower meadow and plant additional trees. it would be an environmental project for me. "Public funds for public goods" would, I think, imply public access, which would not be relevant in this case.

You say "Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years". Yes, it is an awkward parcel and is on a gradient so severe that I have to take it diagonally with my ride-on mower. It is of no use to a farmer or horse owner and could never be developed.

Regarding combining parcels of land, wouldn`t ot be better to keep them separate to give any prospective future buyer of our house the option of having a smaller garden or a really big one?

Yes, with rent at that level it becomes a financial proposition, and 20-25 times the annual rent sounds about right. The point that the land only has value if there is demand for it would apply only if you were willing to walk away from renting it and no-one else was interested.

Is there an alternative of continuing to rent but under a long lease? That wouldn't change the finances, and avoid a lot of the admin, whilst giving you security to do your environmental and larking about in the trees stuff?

Talk to people like your County Wildlife Trust, and the Million Ponds project, and have a read of eg "My Wilderness In Bloom" by Phil Drabble (bigger scale but fun). Then get your ideas in order and have a chat to your great estate Land Manager.

If they can see a genuine long term interest on your part, and potential to not-be-worse-off themselves then imo they should play ball, as it will meet their Trust goals and make life simpler.

The closest thing we have to a great estate we have on PB is @Charles, so lets see what he thinks :-).

IMO put a small lake there, and treat it as a small woodland, and a resource eg for your local Primary to do outdoor education maybe, and your own extended family and maybe neighbours to do fun and bonfire night (you will have lots of brash to dispose of) .

My parents bought a run down 2-year-empty small manor house when I was about 10 in the 70s for not much more than the cost of a 4 bed detached and stayed there for 40 years. Dad vowed he would never leave, and he never did. We sold up after he died.

If you can make it add up do so, and enjoy for a long time.

One of my favourite quotes is from Lord Morris of Castle Morris, the former Labour Front Bencher in the Lords, who wrote in his Diary Column in the Church Times around 1990 that he had "bought a small manor house in Derbyshire to decline and die in".

And he did. It was Foolow Manor. Matthew Parris did something similar elsewhere, albeit more smugly.

Last I heard (from an acquaintance who was Deputy Duck Warden in Foolow at that time under his wife as Chief Duck Warden) is that Lady Morris was still there.

Looking at your circs, I would start talking at 10-15k, maybe.

ATB. A very worthwhile project.

SandyRentool · December 2020

Having given the matter due consideration, I reckon Priti's lower centre of gravity would give her the edge.

Nigelb · December 2020

alex_ said:
Apparently all planned second doses of Pfizer vaccine have been cancelled as of next week. Where that leaves those who were expecting to receive them, who knows? And do we have the guaranteed supplies from Pfizer to ensure that they ever will get their second dose?

I think everyone already dosed will receive the booster on the original schedule.
The change is only for shots going ahead in January.

alex_ · December 2020

Anyone find out why some London boroughs have schools closed, and others not - even when (eg Kingston/Richmond) they are neighbouring boroughs with almost identical figures on case numbers?

Roger · December 2020

I think you should give award 5 to Harry Potter for the cloak

Malmesbury · December 2020

MattW said:
FPT:
show previous quotes
IanB2 said:

Stocky said:

MattW said:

Stocky said:
A cheeky question for the lawyers out there.

@Gallowgate ?

I may have a chance to buy 1/3rd acre of land behind by garden. I currently rent it from the landowner. How can a fair price be established? Would it be a multiple of the rent or is there a per acre guide for "garden land". There is no development potential and the land is on a slope and is no use to a farmer or as a horse paddock.

Alternatively, would the adjusted garden size - which would be increasing sixfold I guess - put value on my house? And if so would the current landowner argue for the extra value?

Finally, would there be a separate land ownership for the land in isolation with the land registry, or would the boundaries of my current plot be expanded to envelope the new land? Are there any stamp duty implications either way?

Any help much appreciated.
I disagree with most of the others on this except perhaps @TimT and @MarqueeMark.

It is a marketplace of one buyer and one seller, so considerations such as "fair market price" are peripheral at best. It is worth what you will buy it for and the Great Estate will sell it for, nothing else.

You need to put yourself in their head and do a cost benefit from their point of view.

I would punt that they have let it for a relative peppercorn because it saves them having to spend some time and £200-£500 a year + admin managing it.

I would say it may add value to your house, but perhaps only 1-3%, for the correct buyer. If your street is all samey then it is an advantage.

Planning: the content of the rental agreement is private, and therefore not a Relevant Planning Matter; they could claim it was an elephant for all it matters. Though long term proven usage as a garden may give you a right to do so by prescription if no one has attempted to enforce. You would need I think 10 years proven use. Perhaps buy it with "can't be sure it is garden" as your argument, then serve your proof on the Council later. Though the GE surely know their planning stuff.

Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years, whether the transaction is big enough to be worth the bother etc. They could use it eg as part of the compulsory 10% open space in a medium sized estate to allow more houses on the flat bit, or as a quid pro quo to make another development acceptable (which was what Sarah Beeny did).

Don't forget that in a couple of years they may be able to gain an income from "public funds for public goods" by turning it into a wildlife meadow or a copse.

I would say that anything under 20k will not be worth the hassle for them, so perhaps start with 20k + an overage clause, and willing to go to double or treble that, and paying costs. Expect maybe 2k to 5k costs if you have a custom agreement. You could even offer a preemptive right ro repurchase at double plus land inflation.

Can you get some neighbours to make parallel offers, to make it a bigger deal?

On the parcel, you either have the buggeration of combining now, or of combining them when you sell. I would do it now, as time is of the essence when selling.

There is a sweet spot for you in that Stamp Duty does not apply (I think) on transactions under 40k.

Gosh @MattW that`s a great post - I don`t know where to start. (And @Gallowgate for your continued interest.)

A few things:

You ask "Can you get an area TPO on the whole thing before you conversation, such that it will make it a little less attractive as potential development?" My garden is in a conservation area. The land in question is just the other side of the conservation area boundary. There are fruit trees and a few conifers on the land. I don`t think a TPO is relevant.

The current rent that I pay to the Estate is £600 pa and this tends to rise with inflation. So not a peppercorn. Basically, I`ve been paying for the privilege of cutting the grass and the boundary hedges!

DavidL suggested 5 x this and I said that, knowing the Estate, they would not accept less than 25x. Your comments of £20k plus (plus costs) makes sense to me (getting into their head, as you say). The way I look at it is that I am committed to £600 plus inflation each year. I know I`m not really committed - but I am in reality because the land connects to my garden and I feel that it is essential to protect my outlook. (The land does not connect to anyone else`s garden.) Put simply, I wouldn`t want anyone else to rent it or own it. We have no plans to move ever so regarding this as a £600 pa plus inflation commitment leads me to think that paying, say, £30k one-off to extinguish this annual commitment is a good deal for me regardless of the value it may put on my house.

What would make it much less attractive to me is if they do like they usually do and impose restrictive covenants. I would want to have the scope of erecting a treehouse and possibly a greenhouse which the covenants usually prohibit. Mainly I would use it as a wildflower meadow and plant additional trees. it would be an environmental project for me. "Public funds for public goods" would, I think, imply public access, which would not be relevant in this case.

You say "Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years". Yes, it is an awkward parcel and is on a gradient so severe that I have to take it diagonally with my ride-on mower. It is of no use to a farmer or horse owner and could never be developed.

Regarding combining parcels of land, wouldn`t ot be better to keep them separate to give any prospective future buyer of our house the option of having a smaller garden or a really big one?

Yes, with rent at that level it becomes a financial proposition, and 20-25 times the annual rent sounds about right. The point that the land only has value if there is demand for it would apply only if you were willing to walk away from renting it and no-one else was interested.

Is there an alternative of continuing to rent but under a long lease? That wouldn't change the finances, and avoid a lot of the admin, whilst giving you security to do your environmental and larking about in the trees stuff?
Talk to people like your County Wildlife Trust, and the Million Ponds project, and have a read of eg "My Wilderness In Bloom" by Phil Drabble (bigger scale but fun). Then get your ideas in order and have a chat to your great estate Land Manager.

If they can see a genuine long term interest on your part, and potential to not-be-worse-off themselves then imo they should play ball, as it will meet their Trust goals and make life simpler.

The closest thing we have to a great estate we have on PB is @Charles, so lets see what he thinks :-).

IMO put a small lake there, and treat it as a small woodland, and a resource eg for your local Primary to do outdoor education maybe, and your own extended family and maybe neighbours to do fun and bonfire night (you will have lots of brash to dispose of) .

My parents bought a run down 2-year-empty small manor house when I was about 10 in the 70s for not much more than the cost of a 4 bed detached and stayed there for 40 years. Dad vowed he would never leave, and he never did. We sold up after he died.

If you can make it add up do so, and enjoy for a long time.

One of my favourite quotes is from Lord Morris of Castle Morris, the former Labour Front Bencher in the Lords, who wrote in his Diary Column in the Church Times around 1990 that he had "bought a small manor house in Derbyshire to decline and die in".

And he did. It was Foolow Manor. Matthew Parris did something similar elsewhere, albeit more smugly.

Last I heard (from an acquaintance who was Deputy Duck Warden in Foolow at that time under his wife as Chief Duck Warden) is that Lady Morris was still there.

Looking at your circs, I would start talking at 10-15k, maybe.

ATB. A very worthwhile project.

A thought - a lake is a ideal location for ground source heating systems. Even a large pond can work for this.

alex_ · December 2020

BTW - it does tentatively look as if case numbers in England my have peaked (7 day averages) - am i reading figures correctly?

dixiedean · December 2020

alex_ said:
Anyone find out why some London boroughs have schools closed, and others not - even when (eg Kingston/Richmond) they are neighbouring boroughs with almost identical figures on case numbers?

Gavin Williamson is an idiot?
Occam's Razor and that.

Stuartinromford · December 2020

alex_ said:
Anyone find out why some London boroughs have schools closed, and others not - even when (eg Kingston/Richmond) they are neighbouring boroughs with almost identical figures on case numbers?

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1344342068710281223?s=19

Make of that what you will. It will probably have changed by Monday, anyway.

Nigelb · December 2020

Omnium said:

show previous quotes
SandyRentool said:
I now have a mental image of Priti and The Truss mud wrestling.

Thank you Cyclefree!
You'd probably be in less trouble than if I said that they were both rather lovely.

I'd certainly not risk saying such a thing of course.

In common with the rest of the cabinet, they are notably unlovely.

dixiedean · December 2020

londonpubman said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
Ireland returns to a full lockdown for a month.
We need that here too (including schools). As a minimum.

Sorry to sound like a broken record!

Someone needs to.
You are right of course.

Philip_Thompson · December 2020

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626
The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him?

❌

The only job he should be allowed near is the whips office.

Nigelb · December 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh asks the prime minister how many people will be immunised each week - "because surely it needs to be in the millions".

Mr Johnson says: "The best answer I can give at the moment is we will have tens of millions of doses by the end of March. We're working to get the programme going as fast we can.

"I don't want to give you specific numbers at the moment, but I can tell you that we are shifting heaven and earth to roll them out as fast as we can."

Prof Van-Tam adds that it's "probably not the best idea" to look at December and how the NHS vaccination programme has started so far with the Pfizer vaccine, and to overlay that with "kitchen-table mathematics" as to how that'll scale up from January to March.

There really is no point asking Johnson any question which involves detail. Unless you wish to establish his lack of knowledge - which at this point seems an unnecessary exercise.

Omnium · December 2020

Nigelb said:

show previous quotes
Omnium said:

SandyRentool said:
I now have a mental image of Priti and The Truss mud wrestling.

Thank you Cyclefree!
You'd probably be in less trouble than if I said that they were both rather lovely.

I'd certainly not risk saying such a thing of course.

In common with the rest of the cabinet, they are notably unlovely.

There's no reason to let politics get in the way of common decency you know.

ydoethur · December 2020

Malmesbury said:

show previous quotes
Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21
If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?
Washington wasn't that shite. He won. Mr Trump didn't.
"slave owning" - yup
"racist" - yup
"corrupt" ?
"land thieving" - do you mean Indian land?
"traitor" - "Treason doth never prosper. What's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason."

No. He stole land from those soldiers in his army who had been promised it, or to be exact, made them swap their shares in favourable land for less favroubale land through a corrupt surveyor. This gives some information, although not by any means the whole story of his criminality.

https://lehrmaninstitute.org/history/founders-land.html

I trolled the hell out of some of the dimmer Yanks over the Lee statues controversy, when they said there should be no statues to traitors or slave owners, by pointing out that Washington was far worse on both counts and a much less able general.

It wound them up beyond belief, and the contortions they went into to try and justify themselves would have embarrassed Hyufd or TUD.

ydoethur · December 2020

Carnyx said:

show previous quotes
ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21
If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?
Washington wasn't that shite. He won. Mr Trump didn't.

Washington lost every battle he fought, with one exception.

He was fortunate that the French made it impossible for the British to resupply their armies, or he would have lost.

kle4 · December 2020

ydoethur said:

show previous quotes
Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21
If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?
Washington wasn't that shite. He won. Mr Trump didn't.
"slave owning" - yup
"racist" - yup
"corrupt" ?
"land thieving" - do you mean Indian land?
"traitor" - "Treason doth never prosper. What's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason."
No. He stole land from those soldiers in his army who had been promised it, or to be exact, made them swap their shares in favourable land for less favroubale land through a corrupt surveyor. This gives some information, although not by any means the whole story of his criminality.

https://lehrmaninstitute.org/history/founders-land.html

I trolled the hell out of some of the dimmer Yanks over the Lee statues controversy, when they said there should be no statues to traitors or slave owners, by pointing out that Washington was far worse on both counts and a much less able general.

It wound them up beyond belief, and the contortions they went into to try and justify themselves would have embarrassed Hyufd or TUD.

Never learn about your heroes. Even the saints weren't saints.

ydoethur · December 2020

Phil said:

show previous quotes
contrarian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Must read thread

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344323024770781185

I did like these, but there's plenty of gold in that Twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344331281459458049

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1344342636992331776
Of course Richard B Russell was.....er.....a democrat Senator
You are aware that the Republicans and Democrats played swapsies in the post-WWII period over who got to be the extra-specially racist party in order to attract the white supremacist southern vote? There was a name for it in the Republican party & everything. A strategy I believe they called it...

It turned the southern states rights.

Ah, my coat.

MarqueeMark · December 2020

Series 2, Mandalorian - last 3 episodes coming up......

alex_ · December 2020

Philip_Thompson said:

show previous quotes
kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626
The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him?
❌

The only job he should be allowed near is the whips office.

Let's hope the reasons Greenwich and Islington are on the "schools open" list isn't political...

Philip_Thompson · December 2020

alex_ said:
BTW - it does tentatively look as if case numbers in England my have peaked (7 day averages) - am i reading figures correctly?

Unlikely.

Numbers are completely distorted by the Christmas effect. Take with a major dose of salt.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2020

MarqueeMark said:
Series 2, Mandalorian - last 3 episodes coming up......

Hanky at the ready......

ydoethur · December 2020

kle4 said:

show previous quotes
Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/drphilgoff/status/1344100242426384384?s=21
If even so epically shite a general as the slave owning racist corrupt land thieving traitor could get it right, why can’t Donald Trump?
Washington wasn't that shite. He won. Mr Trump didn't.
Better politician than general?

He was a pretty crap politician and all, tbh. A weak and vacillating president who failed to take full advantage of the powers and opportunities that office offered. His foreign policy was a complete joke. In the end, he was so confused by it all he just walked away.

Ironically, that probably made him the ideal president for a young and uncertain republic. It meant the custom was established that the President didn’t have too much power and didn’t stay in office for life.

Imagine if somebody really dangerous or megalomaniacal - Trump, either Roosevelt, or from his own time, Jefferson, Burr or Hamilton - had been setting precedents. Very easy to see how it could have wound up as an unstable dictatorship dominated by the military, as happened in most South American countries.

But no - because Washington was helpfully useless and the Yanks think he was amazing, it’s much more difficult for Presidents to try and turn the office into a dictatorship. FD Roosevelt probably came closest, but he never really came close. Congress always asserted itself when it wanted to. As for Trump’s efforts, they’ve been pitiful.

ydoethur · December 2020

alex_ said:

show previous quotes
Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
A special award should exist for the shit head that is Gavin Williamson.

https://twitter.com/sianushka/status/1344335872779546626
The Gavin Williamson award for being Gavin Williamson? He'll win every year.

To be totally serious, is there anyone who likes him?
❌

The only job he should be allowed near is the whips office.
Let's hope the reasons Greenwich and Islington are on the "schools open" list isn't political...

That would be the triumph of hope over reality.

CarlottaVance · December 2020

Fun thread:

https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1344345048117350403?s=20

FrancisUrquhart · December 2020

Nigelb said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:
BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh asks the prime minister how many people will be immunised each week - "because surely it needs to be in the millions".

Mr Johnson says: "The best answer I can give at the moment is we will have tens of millions of doses by the end of March. We're working to get the programme going as fast we can.

"I don't want to give you specific numbers at the moment, but I can tell you that we are shifting heaven and earth to roll them out as fast as we can."

Prof Van-Tam adds that it's "probably not the best idea" to look at December and how the NHS vaccination programme has started so far with the Pfizer vaccine, and to overlay that with "kitchen-table mathematics" as to how that'll scale up from January to March.
There really is no point asking Johnson any question which involves detail. Unless you wish to establish his lack of knowledge - which at this point seems an unnecessary exercise.

Actually to be fair, it is better than his usual look we will do 27 million by tomorrow and we will all be partying in the streets for New Years Day type stuff.

I think they know that they are beholden to AZN, who haven't delivered what they said they would, and so can't give any exact figures beyond knowing they have 500k doses for next week.

IanB2 · December 2020

alex_ said:
BTW - it does tentatively look as if case numbers in England my have peaked (7 day averages) - am i reading figures correctly?

I think it would be risky to draw any conclusions from the figures over the holiday period, when both the level of testing and people’s willingness to seek a test or medical attention will be different.

It is also possible that the immediate pre-holiday figures might have been inflated by more people than usual seeking tests, and these throwing up the usual quota of unsuspecting asymptomatics.

MattW · December 2020

Malmesbury said:

show previous quotes
MattW said:
FPT:
IanB2 said:

Stocky said:

MattW said:

Stocky said:
A cheeky question for the lawyers out there.

@Gallowgate ?

I may have a chance to buy 1/3rd acre of land behind by garden. I currently rent it from the landowner. How can a fair price be established? Would it be a multiple of the rent or is there a per acre guide for "garden land". There is no development potential and the land is on a slope and is no use to a farmer or as a horse paddock.

Alternatively, would the adjusted garden size - which would be increasing sixfold I guess - put value on my house? And if so would the current landowner argue for the extra value?

Finally, would there be a separate land ownership for the land in isolation with the land registry, or would the boundaries of my current plot be expanded to envelope the new land? Are there any stamp duty implications either way?

Any help much appreciated.
I disagree with most of the others on this except perhaps @TimT and @MarqueeMark.

It is a marketplace of one buyer and one seller, so considerations such as "fair market price" are peripheral at best. It is worth what you will buy it for and the Great Estate will sell it for, nothing else.

You need to put yourself in their head and do a cost benefit from their point of view.

I would punt that they have let it for a relative peppercorn because it saves them having to spend some time and £200-£500 a year + admin managing it.

I would say it may add value to your house, but perhaps only 1-3%, for the correct buyer. If your street is all samey then it is an advantage.

Planning: the content of the rental agreement is private, and therefore not a Relevant Planning Matter; they could claim it was an elephant for all it matters. Though long term proven usage as a garden may give you a right to do so by prescription if no one has attempted to enforce. You would need I think 10 years proven use. Perhaps buy it with "can't be sure it is garden" as your argument, then serve your proof on the Council later. Though the GE surely know their planning stuff.

Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years, whether the transaction is big enough to be worth the bother etc. They could use it eg as part of the compulsory 10% open space in a medium sized estate to allow more houses on the flat bit, or as a quid pro quo to make another development acceptable (which was what Sarah Beeny did).

Don't forget that in a couple of years they may be able to gain an income from "public funds for public goods" by turning it into a wildlife meadow or a copse.

I would say that anything under 20k will not be worth the hassle for them, so perhaps start with 20k + an overage clause, and willing to go to double or treble that, and paying costs. Expect maybe 2k to 5k costs if you have a custom agreement. You could even offer a preemptive right ro repurchase at double plus land inflation.

Can you get some neighbours to make parallel offers, to make it a bigger deal?

On the parcel, you either have the buggeration of combining now, or of combining them when you sell. I would do it now, as time is of the essence when selling.

There is a sweet spot for you in that Stamp Duty does not apply (I think) on transactions under 40k.

Gosh @MattW that`s a great post - I don`t know where to start. (And @Gallowgate for your continued interest.)

A few things:

You ask "Can you get an area TPO on the whole thing before you conversation, such that it will make it a little less attractive as potential development?" My garden is in a conservation area. The land in question is just the other side of the conservation area boundary. There are fruit trees and a few conifers on the land. I don`t think a TPO is relevant.

The current rent that I pay to the Estate is £600 pa and this tends to rise with inflation. So not a peppercorn. Basically, I`ve been paying for the privilege of cutting the grass and the boundary hedges!

DavidL suggested 5 x this and I said that, knowing the Estate, they would not accept less than 25x. Your comments of £20k plus (plus costs) makes sense to me (getting into their head, as you say). The way I look at it is that I am committed to £600 plus inflation each year. I know I`m not really committed - but I am in reality because the land connects to my garden and I feel that it is essential to protect my outlook. (The land does not connect to anyone else`s garden.) Put simply, I wouldn`t want anyone else to rent it or own it. We have no plans to move ever so regarding this as a £600 pa plus inflation commitment leads me to think that paying, say, £30k one-off to extinguish this annual commitment is a good deal for me regardless of the value it may put on my house.

What would make it much less attractive to me is if they do like they usually do and impose restrictive covenants. I would want to have the scope of erecting a treehouse and possibly a greenhouse which the covenants usually prohibit. Mainly I would use it as a wildflower meadow and plant additional trees. it would be an environmental project for me. "Public funds for public goods" would, I think, imply public access, which would not be relevant in this case.

You say "Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years". Yes, it is an awkward parcel and is on a gradient so severe that I have to take it diagonally with my ride-on mower. It is of no use to a farmer or horse owner and could never be developed.

Regarding combining parcels of land, wouldn`t ot be better to keep them separate to give any prospective future buyer of our house the option of having a smaller garden or a really big one?

Yes, with rent at that level it becomes a financial proposition, and 20-25 times the annual rent sounds about right. The point that the land only has value if there is demand for it would apply only if you were willing to walk away from renting it and no-one else was interested.

Is there an alternative of continuing to rent but under a long lease? That wouldn't change the finances, and avoid a lot of the admin, whilst giving you security to do your environmental and larking about in the trees stuff?
Talk to people like your County Wildlife Trust, and the Million Ponds project, and have a read of eg "My Wilderness In Bloom" by Phil Drabble (bigger scale but fun). Then get your ideas in order and have a chat to your great estate Land Manager.

If they can see a genuine long term interest on your part, and potential to not-be-worse-off themselves then imo they should play ball, as it will meet their Trust goals and make life simpler.

The closest thing we have to a great estate we have on PB is @Charles, so lets see what he thinks :-).

IMO put a small lake there, and treat it as a small woodland, and a resource eg for your local Primary to do outdoor education maybe, and your own extended family and maybe neighbours to do fun and bonfire night (you will have lots of brash to dispose of) .

My parents bought a run down 2-year-empty small manor house when I was about 10 in the 70s for not much more than the cost of a 4 bed detached and stayed there for 40 years. Dad vowed he would never leave, and he never did. We sold up after he died.

If you can make it add up do so, and enjoy for a long time.

One of my favourite quotes is from Lord Morris of Castle Morris, the former Labour Front Bencher in the Lords, who wrote in his Diary Column in the Church Times around 1990 that he had "bought a small manor house in Derbyshire to decline and die in".

And he did. It was Foolow Manor. Matthew Parris did something similar elsewhere, albeit more smugly.

Last I heard (from an acquaintance who was Deputy Duck Warden in Foolow at that time under his wife as Chief Duck Warden) is that Lady Morris was still there.

Looking at your circs, I would start talking at 10-15k, maybe.

ATB. A very worthwhile project.

A thought - a lake is a ideal location for ground source heating systems. Even a large pond can work for this.

Personally I wouldn't without very careful spreadsheet work, except in really really exceptional cases.

Expensive compared to where ASHPs are now, and very niche.

And I am not sure if you get the extra grant under GHG to cover the extra expense.

Somewhat less uncompetitive if in a pond though - you don't have to did a trench for all the coils. Watch out for the cost of the antifreeze when pricing up.

Balrog · December 2020

Malmesbury said:

show previous quotes
MattW said:
FPT:
IanB2 said:

Stocky said:

MattW said:

Stocky said:
A cheeky question for the lawyers out there.

@Gallowgate ?

I may have a chance to buy 1/3rd acre of land behind by garden. I currently rent it from the landowner. How can a fair price be established? Would it be a multiple of the rent or is there a per acre guide for "garden land". There is no development potential and the land is on a slope and is no use to a farmer or as a horse paddock.

Alternatively, would the adjusted garden size - which would be increasing sixfold I guess - put value on my house? And if so would the current landowner argue for the extra value?

Finally, would there be a separate land ownership for the land in isolation with the land registry, or would the boundaries of my current plot be expanded to envelope the new land? Are there any stamp duty implications either way?

Any help much appreciated.
I disagree with most of the others on this except perhaps @TimT and @MarqueeMark.

It is a marketplace of one buyer and one seller, so considerations such as "fair market price" are peripheral at best. It is worth what you will buy it for and the Great Estate will sell it for, nothing else.

You need to put yourself in their head and do a cost benefit from their point of view.

I would punt that they have let it for a relative peppercorn because it saves them having to spend some time and £200-£500 a year + admin managing it.

I would say it may add value to your house, but perhaps only 1-3%, for the correct buyer. If your street is all samey then it is an advantage.

Planning: the content of the rental agreement is private, and therefore not a Relevant Planning Matter; they could claim it was an elephant for all it matters. Though long term proven usage as a garden may give you a right to do so by prescription if no one has attempted to enforce. You would need I think 10 years proven use. Perhaps buy it with "can't be sure it is garden" as your argument, then serve your proof on the Council later. Though the GE surely know their planning stuff.

Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years, whether the transaction is big enough to be worth the bother etc. They could use it eg as part of the compulsory 10% open space in a medium sized estate to allow more houses on the flat bit, or as a quid pro quo to make another development acceptable (which was what Sarah Beeny did).

Don't forget that in a couple of years they may be able to gain an income from "public funds for public goods" by turning it into a wildlife meadow or a copse.

I would say that anything under 20k will not be worth the hassle for them, so perhaps start with 20k + an overage clause, and willing to go to double or treble that, and paying costs. Expect maybe 2k to 5k costs if you have a custom agreement. You could even offer a preemptive right ro repurchase at double plus land inflation.

Can you get some neighbours to make parallel offers, to make it a bigger deal?

On the parcel, you either have the buggeration of combining now, or of combining them when you sell. I would do it now, as time is of the essence when selling.

There is a sweet spot for you in that Stamp Duty does not apply (I think) on transactions under 40k.

Gosh @MattW that`s a great post - I don`t know where to start. (And @Gallowgate for your continued interest.)

A few things:

You ask "Can you get an area TPO on the whole thing before you conversation, such that it will make it a little less attractive as potential development?" My garden is in a conservation area. The land in question is just the other side of the conservation area boundary. There are fruit trees and a few conifers on the land. I don`t think a TPO is relevant.

The current rent that I pay to the Estate is £600 pa and this tends to rise with inflation. So not a peppercorn. Basically, I`ve been paying for the privilege of cutting the grass and the boundary hedges!

DavidL suggested 5 x this and I said that, knowing the Estate, they would not accept less than 25x. Your comments of £20k plus (plus costs) makes sense to me (getting into their head, as you say). The way I look at it is that I am committed to £600 plus inflation each year. I know I`m not really committed - but I am in reality because the land connects to my garden and I feel that it is essential to protect my outlook. (The land does not connect to anyone else`s garden.) Put simply, I wouldn`t want anyone else to rent it or own it. We have no plans to move ever so regarding this as a £600 pa plus inflation commitment leads me to think that paying, say, £30k one-off to extinguish this annual commitment is a good deal for me regardless of the value it may put on my house.

What would make it much less attractive to me is if they do like they usually do and impose restrictive covenants. I would want to have the scope of erecting a treehouse and possibly a greenhouse which the covenants usually prohibit. Mainly I would use it as a wildflower meadow and plant additional trees. it would be an environmental project for me. "Public funds for public goods" would, I think, imply public access, which would not be relevant in this case.

You say "Stuff that matters is whether it is a small awkward parcel that makes one of their fields square, whether they think *they* can develop it in the next hundred years". Yes, it is an awkward parcel and is on a gradient so severe that I have to take it diagonally with my ride-on mower. It is of no use to a farmer or horse owner and could never be developed.

Regarding combining parcels of land, wouldn`t ot be better to keep them separate to give any prospective future buyer of our house the option of having a smaller garden or a really big one?

Yes, with rent at that level it becomes a financial proposition, and 20-25 times the annual rent sounds about right. The point that the land only has value if there is demand for it would apply only if you were willing to walk away from renting it and no-one else was interested.

Is there an alternative of continuing to rent but under a long lease? That wouldn't change the finances, and avoid a lot of the admin, whilst giving you security to do your environmental and larking about in the trees stuff?
Talk to people like your County Wildlife Trust, and the Million Ponds project, and have a read of eg "My Wilderness In Bloom" by Phil Drabble (bigger scale but fun). Then get your ideas in order and have a chat to your great estate Land Manager.

If they can see a genuine long term interest on your part, and potential to not-be-worse-off themselves then imo they should play ball, as it will meet their Trust goals and make life simpler.

The closest thing we have to a great estate we have on PB is @Charles, so lets see what he thinks :-).

IMO put a small lake there, and treat it as a small woodland, and a resource eg for your local Primary to do outdoor education maybe, and your own extended family and maybe neighbours to do fun and bonfire night (you will have lots of brash to dispose of) .

My parents bought a run down 2-year-empty small manor house when I was about 10 in the 70s for not much more than the cost of a 4 bed detached and stayed there for 40 years. Dad vowed he would never leave, and he never did. We sold up after he died.

If you can make it add up do so, and enjoy for a long time.

One of my favourite quotes is from Lord Morris of Castle Morris, the former Labour Front Bencher in the Lords, who wrote in his Diary Column in the Church Times around 1990 that he had "bought a small manor house in Derbyshire to decline and die in".

And he did. It was Foolow Manor. Matthew Parris did something similar elsewhere, albeit more smugly.

Last I heard (from an acquaintance who was Deputy Duck Warden in Foolow at that time under his wife as Chief Duck Warden) is that Lady Morris was still there.

Looking at your circs, I would start talking at 10-15k, maybe.

ATB. A very worthwhile project.

A thought - a lake is a ideal location for ground source heating systems. Even a large pond can work for this.

Actually its a water source heat pump. Needs less space than ground source but not as efficient.

alex_ · December 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:

show previous quotes
Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh asks the prime minister how many people will be immunised each week - "because surely it needs to be in the millions".

Mr Johnson says: "The best answer I can give at the moment is we will have tens of millions of doses by the end of March. We're working to get the programme going as fast we can.

"I don't want to give you specific numbers at the moment, but I can tell you that we are shifting heaven and earth to roll them out as fast as we can."

Prof Van-Tam adds that it's "probably not the best idea" to look at December and how the NHS vaccination programme has started so far with the Pfizer vaccine, and to overlay that with "kitchen-table mathematics" as to how that'll scale up from January to March.
There really is no point asking Johnson any question which involves detail. Unless you wish to establish his lack of knowledge - which at this point seems an unnecessary exercise.
Actually to be fair, it is better than his usual look we will do 27 million by tomorrow and we will all be partying in the streets for New Years Day type stuff.

I think they know that they are beholden to AZN, who haven't delivered what they said they would, and so can't give any exact figures beyond knowing they have 500k doses for next week.

Yep, sometimes it's refreshing for a politician who doesn't know (and can't know) to actually, in effect, say, "i don't know".

slade · December 2020

Just popped up on my Facebook page: 'Britain has won nothing but has lost a continent,' - Ursula van der Leyen. Anyone know the source?

Pro_Rata · December 2020

Philip_Thompson said:

show previous quotes
alex_ said:
BTW - it does tentatively look as if case numbers in England my have peaked (7 day averages) - am i reading figures correctly?
Unlikely.

Numbers are completely distorted by the Christmas effect. Take with a major dose of salt.

Deaths do, tentatively, appear to have started separating downwards from hospitalisations. Even with the big number today, deaths are still marginally down week on week. Guess we'll know by second week in January if this is a proper trend.

Foxy · December 2020

IanB2 said:

show previous quotes
alex_ said:
BTW - it does tentatively look as if case numbers in England my have peaked (7 day averages) - am i reading figures correctly?
I think it would be risky to draw any conclusions from the figures over the holiday period, when both the level of testing and people’s willingness to seek a test or medical attention will be different.

It is also possible that the immediate pre-holiday figures might have been inflated by more people than usual seeking tests, and these throwing up the usual quota of unsuspecting asymptomatics.

Ominously long queues outside our testing stations locally.

Hopefully just being twitchy after family gatherings.

RobD · December 2020

slade said:
Just popped up on my Facebook page: 'Britain has won nothing but has lost a continent,' - Ursula van der Leyen. Anyone know the source?

No hits on google, so more twitter bollocks.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2020

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1344360656603144193?s=20

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