I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)
Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.
If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.
The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.
My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
Any evidence to go with that or just your gut instinct.
It actually doesn't need to be brilliant to be good enough- if it reduces the chance of needing a hospital visit to at worst a day or two in bed with reduced transmission it's more than good enough
Gut instinct and severe lack of any news other than hyping. If it had been any good we would have been bombarded with leaks from the dummies like Hancock, Gove, Williamson , etc. Their silence on it speaks volumes. At best my guess would be that they will fudge and approve and it will be UK only , it will be nothing like as good as the other vaccines. I am hoping not to get a second rate vaccine just because these idiots could not run a bath.
The increased transmission of the new variant of the virus means that we are running out of time to get people vaccinated. We need to vaccinate people before April 2021 or they are likely to get COVID instead. Without the Oxford/AZN vaccine I do not see how this can be done. The virus doesn't know about testing regimes, regulatory approval timescales, etc., and it never takes time off for holidays.
My father - who is both an epidemiologist in animals and a practical vet - said, ‘this virus has not read the rules on how a good virus behaves.’
It is starting to look as though it has now read them, then torn up the rulebook, pissed on the fragments and buggered the person who gave them the copy.
The virus is where Johnny Depp was five years ago, so successful that it can do whatever the hell it wants up to and including being on class A drugs at work and shitting in the marital bed, and get away with it.
Point of order - it was his wife that shat the marital bed.
I thought that was in contention. Not going to research the point though.
I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)
Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.
If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.
The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.
My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
Any evidence to go with that or just your gut instinct.
It actually doesn't need to be brilliant to be good enough- if it reduces the chance of needing a hospital visit to at worst a day or two in bed with reduced transmission it's more than good enough
Gut instinct and severe lack of any news other than hyping. If it had been any good we would have been bombarded with leaks from the dummies like Hancock, Gove, Williamson , etc. Their silence on it speaks volumes. At best my guess would be that they will fudge and approve and it will be UK only , it will be nothing like as good as the other vaccines. I am hoping not to get a second rate vaccine just because these idiots could not run a bath.
The increased transmission of the new variant of the virus means that we are running out of time to get people vaccinated. We need to vaccinate people before April 2021 or they are likely to get COVID instead. Without the Oxford/AZN vaccine I do not see how this can be done. The virus doesn't know about testing regimes, regulatory approval timescales, etc., and it never takes time off for holidays.
My father - who is both an epidemiologist in animals and a practical vet - said, ‘this virus has not read the rules on how a good virus behaves.’
It is starting to look as though it has now read them, then torn up the rulebook, pissed on the fragments and buggered the person who gave them the copy.
The virus is where Johnny Depp was five years ago, so successful that it can do whatever the hell it wants up to and including being on class A drugs at work and shitting in the marital bed, and get away with it.
Point of order - it was his wife that shat the marital bed.
I must say I found most of the relationship revelations revolting!
I remember @Mysticrose called Alastair Meeks a cross between Private Frazer and Eeyore when back in February he warned us all about the looming Covid-19 pandemic.
Thread writers getting called Private Frazer BTL does mean the thread writer is Nostradamus.
I remember @Mysticrose called Alastair Meeks a cross between Private Frazer and Eeyore when back in February he warned us all about the looming Covid-19 pandemic.
Thread writers getting called Private Frazer BTL does mean the thread writer is Nostradamus.
Today’s version of the truth, possibly, which won’t be tomorrow’s version.
There's the old joke about the Soviet Union. The Future is certain! It's the past that keeps changing.
Is that not based on the Orwell quote in 1984 which said that he who controls the past controls the future? I must confess I thought the phrase itself was Orwell but apparently not.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
Very fair critique. Certainly if it goes wrong so far as financial services are concerned Boris will need armed guards if he goes anywhere near the City
I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)
Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.
If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.
The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.
My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
I agree, Robert. The world knows how to do vaccinations. The only thing missing for the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines is the cold distribution chain. Not an issue with more standard vaccines.
Yet to see if the Oxford one is any good though, signs so far are that it is crap.
Any evidence to go with that or just your gut instinct.
It actually doesn't need to be brilliant to be good enough- if it reduces the chance of needing a hospital visit to at worst a day or two in bed with reduced transmission it's more than good enough
Gut instinct and severe lack of any news other than hyping. If it had been any good we would have been bombarded with leaks from the dummies like Hancock, Gove, Williamson , etc. Their silence on it speaks volumes. At best my guess would be that they will fudge and approve and it will be UK only , it will be nothing like as good as the other vaccines. I am hoping not to get a second rate vaccine just because these idiots could not run a bath.
The increased transmission of the new variant of the virus means that we are running out of time to get people vaccinated. We need to vaccinate people before April 2021 or they are likely to get COVID instead. Without the Oxford/AZN vaccine I do not see how this can be done. The virus doesn't know about testing regimes, regulatory approval timescales, etc., and it never takes time off for holidays.
My father - who is both an epidemiologist in animals and a practical vet - said, ‘this virus has not read the rules on how a good virus behaves.’
It is starting to look as though it has now read them, then torn up the rulebook, pissed on the fragments and buggered the person who gave them the copy.
The virus is where Johnny Depp was five years ago, so successful that it can do whatever the hell it wants up to and including being on class A drugs at work and shitting in the marital bed, and get away with it.
But just like Johnny Depp, it can be trounced by Heard immunity.
Today’s version of the truth, possibly, which won’t be tomorrow’s version.
There's the old joke about the Soviet Union. The Future is certain! It's the past that keeps changing.
Is that not based on the Orwell quote in 1984 which said that he who controls the past controls the future? I must confess I thought the phrase itself was Orwell but apparently not.
There was also a Soviet joke, based on that idea, but I’m not sure whether it emerged independently or not.
Two Party members were talking about their departments. One asked, ‘Can you predict what our future will be in, say, four years?’ The other replied, ‘How could I? I can’t even predict where our past will be in four years.’
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
Besides, if we've signed off on stuff that matters to the EU (goods access, fish, governance) before talking about the bit that's actually more important to the UK (financial services)...
Isn't that exactly what May and Davis were condemned for when they accepted the Withdrawal Agreement / Future Relationship structure?
I remember @Mysticrose called Alastair Meeks a cross between Private Frazer and Eeyore when back in February he warned us all about the looming Covid-19 pandemic.
Thread writers getting called Private Frazer BTL does mean the thread writer is Nostradamus.
They should have a special "Sovereignty Compliant" stamp made and make a theatrical gesture of stamping the Bill, and then repeat the process for all new legislation. Eventually it will become part of our unwritten constitution that the ERG has to apply the sovereignty stamp before anything can become law.
I think it's really very simple: once we have 6 to 10 million of the most vulnerable people vaccinated, then we can start to see restrictions relaxed. (Not removed, relaxed.)
Concerns about vaccine distribution are mostly bunkum. Sticking a needle in someone's arm is not rocket science. And while the Pfizer vaccine is very picky about its temperature for long term storage (which is still not that big a deal), that problem doesn't really exist for the other vaccines.
If we have them, and they work, they will be used. Availability - not distribution - is the issue.
The big issue is that right now, we maybe have 300,000 doses of Pfizer/BioNTech available per week. And its a 'dual shot' vaccine.
My understanding, and I could be wrong, is that there are 20 million doses of AZN/Oxford in the UK. If true, that will make a massive difference to getting normality back.
Could the other firms not make more of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine under license? If so, govts should band together and make it clear this has to happen or facilities will be requisitioned to make it happen regardless.
GMP manufacturing of biologicals is not easy. Tech transfer would be difficult. It can be find but would take time to do that and then to qualify the sites. It’s why everyone started manufacturing at risk
"As more comes out about what the Brexit deal means in reality for former Labour voters.Labour will regret voting for it." Indeed. Particularly regrettable, and detrimental to their gaining support, will be the mocking and ridicule Labour suffer from Boris Johnson, who, whenever Labour draw attention to the downsides of the deal will be told "You voted for it".
Literally this. "Its fine for the Right Honourable Gentleman to throw brickbats around but this is the deal that he voted for! He was so against it that he whipped his MPs to vote for it!"
The whole Brexit saga is not exactly short of imbeciles, morons, people acting contrary to their own interests and just plain stupidity but even in that crowded field the DUP stand out. I really hope I don't see another Parliament where we give a damn what they think in my lifetime.
Embarrassing more like, we now need charity from Ireland, how the tables have turned.
It’s not charity. They have decided to extend a benefit they provide to RoI citizens in RoI to dual citizens in NI. They then decided (for simplicity or just to irritate the DUP) to extend it to U.K.-only citizens in NI
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
Northern Ireland? Transform Belfast into our off-shore banking centre.
Today’s version of the truth, possibly, which won’t be tomorrow’s version.
There's the old joke about the Soviet Union. The Future is certain! It's the past that keeps changing.
Is that not based on the Orwell quote in 1984 which said that he who controls the past controls the future? I must confess I thought the phrase itself was Orwell but apparently not.
There was also a Soviet joke, based on that idea, but I’m not sure whether it emerged independently or not.
Two Party members were talking about their departments. One asked, ‘Can you predict what our future will be in, say, four years?’ The other replied, ‘How could I? I can’t even predict where our past will be in four years.’
There's a lot of hilarious soviet jokes. Shame what they had to go through to get those hilarious jokes of course, but still very funny with the passage of time (and very darkly funny at the time I imagine).
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
Hasn't JRM already moved his enterprise to ROI?
English speaking, Guinness on tap, seems as good a place as any.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
Northern Ireland? Transform Belfast into our off-shore banking centre.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
Northern Ireland? Transform Belfast into our off-shore banking centre.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
Of course, Leave won by offering multiple visions of Brexit, none of which were achievable let alone mutually consistent.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
Seems like there's potential for a lot of disruption but people are not clear on it, so I don't know how certain everyone can be.
While market players hope that years of preparations since Britain voted to leave the European Union means the transition of most euro-denominated assets like shares and derivatives out of the country will be relatively smooth, the long-term impact is unclear...
It’s not the start of the end of London, but it’s pretty bloody embarrassing and a huge own goal for Britain,” said Aquis’ Haynes
Better Frazer than the optimistic twaddle that brought us it will all be over by Xmas.
Pessimism is not inherently better than optimism. However the less pleasant predictions, on past performance, do look more likely. Negativity is not necessarily unduly pessimistic.
I disagree with that
A pessimist goes through life being mildly pleased and suprised that things did not turn out as bad as he feared
An optimist has a lifetime of being disappointed that things did not turn out as well as he hoped
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
Northern Ireland? Transform Belfast into our off-shore banking centre.
Lots of private security available for the bankers.
Better Frazer than the optimistic twaddle that brought us it will all be over by Xmas.
Pessimism is not inherently better than optimism. However the less pleasant predictions, on past performance, do look more likely. Negativity is not necessarily unduly pessimistic.
I disagree with that
A pessimist goes through life being mildly pleased and suprised that things did not turn out as bad as he feared
An optimist has a lifetime of being disappointed that things did not turn out as well as he hoped
I'll rephrase - pessimism is not inherently more correct than optimism.
Interesting that @Cyclefree and I have both anticipated a bothersome mutation in the virus delaying the day of recovery into later in the year. We are fortunate in some respects that the current mutation does not seem to increase the severity of the disease, only its ability to spread (although that is a big enough problem, blowing several holes through the current tier system which is built upon anticipated R rates for certain activities).
My understanding is that over time viruses tend to become less virulent on the Darwinian principle that killing off your host is not the most efficient way to spread but this virus is a bastard, there is no doubt about it, and I think its inevitable that there will be a further sting in the tail.
Yesterday's infection rates were horrendous. January is going to be the worst month of the entire pandemic for deaths. The highly controversial relaxation over Christmas will no doubt get some of the blame but the sad truth is that it was baked in before Christmas even came. We can all only hope that the Oxford vaccine is indeed approved today and that we get many millions protected before the end of January.
One thing that is going to be key which we don't yet seem to know the answer to is whether the vaccines stop someone from being infectious, as opposed to not getting ill. We must all hope and pray that is so because nothing else is going to stop the spread of this new variant for a long time to come.
Not true about becoming less virulent. Rabies - been around for at least 5000 years, still virtually 100% lethal. Smallpox in the same ballpark. There are so many human beings that you would have to thin out 80% of them before the running out of hosts effect began to kick in.
Interesting although I thought rabies was rarely fatal with proper treatment. I have read that on here several times and it seemed plausible.
That’s true.
I turned down the chance to visit the US level 4 biosecurity rabies manufacturing plant because they would have had to give me the emergency vaccination which, at the time, was administered to the base of the spine from the front of the body.
Mr. Boy, quite. That's why it was so strange, inexplicable even, that Cameron didn't have the official Leave campaign put forward an outline of a platform. It was just EU, yes or no, which made things dramatically easier for Leave and harder for Remain (who nevertheless would've won if the campaign hadn't been so bad).
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
Seems like there's potential for a lot of disruption but people are not clear on it, so I don't know how certain everyone can be.
While market players hope that years of preparations since Britain voted to leave the European Union means the transition of most euro-denominated assets like shares and derivatives out of the country will be relatively smooth, the long-term impact is unclear...
It’s not the start of the end of London, but it’s pretty bloody embarrassing and a huge own goal for Britain,” said Aquis’ Haynes
That's why it was so strange, inexplicable even, that Cameron didn't have the official Leave campaign put forward an outline of a platform. It was just EU, yes or no, which made things dramatically easier for Leave and harder for Remain (who nevertheless would've won if the campaign hadn't been so bad).
2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist party. They are focused on being able to have demonstrated the elimination of poverty (which they probably will be able to evidence) accelerating past the US as the #1 global economy (which they have probably missed but will be on track to do) and demonstrating the positive aspects of Chinese communism in 2021 in the eyes of the world (with increased internal suppression of e.g. the Uighur atrocities).
I would not bet against it in 2022 though.
Something tells me that Americans are not going to take it well when their dominant global status is overtaken by a Communist regime.
That's why it was so strange, inexplicable even, that Cameron didn't have the official Leave campaign put forward an outline of a platform. It was just EU, yes or no, which made things dramatically easier for Leave and harder for Remain (who nevertheless would've won if the campaign hadn't been so bad).
The blame for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
People need to stop thinking about blame. Things, people and events will have contributed to Brexit occurring without it being their 'fault', and omitting to do some things will fall into that as well. A level of dispassion really could not go amiss when it comes to Brexit historical analysis, and that doesn't even require people to be less upset about current developments so it should be easy.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
The point is where is the profit made, where is the tax paid and where are the bonuses paid? If we maintain competitive tax rates there will still be an inclination to book the profit here, whatever is done in an EU based subsidiary. Dublin is a bit more of a threat that way because of its low CT rates but most of mainland Europe isn't. If the critical mass remains based in London that is where they will pay their taxes and spend their loot.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
The point is where is the profit made, where is the tax paid and where are the bonuses paid? If we maintain competitive tax rates there will still be an inclination to book the profit here, whatever is done in an EU based subsidiary. Dublin is a bit more of a threat that way because of its low CT rates but most of mainland Europe isn't. If the critical mass remains based in London that is where they will pay their taxes and spend their loot.
Blimey - I thought I was being realistic and hard-headed not downbeat.
What a bunch of Pollyannas you all are!
It is not just my daughter's travails that ail me. Her place is the only one still open in the area - but for how much longer. But also that of my sons who are finding life very hard. And my work fell off a cliff this year. I have just reinvented myself as an expert - and have just written an expert's report on whistleblowing - so am shamelessly advertising myself on here. There are plenty of people - freelancers etc - who are facing tough economic times, who do not have pensions and secure jobs, a group somewhat over-represented on here I feel. The line between economic security and insecurity is somewhat thinner than many realise.
I hope I am wrong and that things go better but nothing this government has done has given me confidence that the vaccination programme will be up and running consistently at the levels it needs to be. I have been shielding this year and expect to be for most of next year as well.
However I did plant some Gertrude Jekyll roses in 3 planters the day before Xmas. They have been voted England's favourite rose - and with good reason: beautiful, floriferous with gorgeous scent. You can see them in my avatar picture. With luck they will grow up the trellis I have just fixed in the home I hope to move into next year. So there is some hope there.
Gardeners plan for the future so are eternal optimists even if they may not be around to see the fruits of their labour.
Il faut cultiver son jardin, as that great cynic, Voltaire, once wrote.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
The point is where is the profit made, where is the tax paid and where are the bonuses paid? If we maintain competitive tax rates there will still be an inclination to book the profit here, whatever is done in an EU based subsidiary. Dublin is a bit more of a threat that way because of its low CT rates but most of mainland Europe isn't. If the critical mass remains based in London that is where they will pay their taxes and spend their loot.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
The point is where is the profit made, where is the tax paid and where are the bonuses paid? If we maintain competitive tax rates there will still be an inclination to book the profit here, whatever is done in an EU based subsidiary. Dublin is a bit more of a threat that way because of its low CT rates but most of mainland Europe isn't. If the critical mass remains based in London that is where they will pay their taxes and spend their loot.
Unless they want to seriously disrupt their economies in the middle of a severe recession they will want unrestricted access to London's skills.
Looking at your last sentence, is that time-limited..........once the situation has steadied, will it be time for another look at the situation. From the EU side?
Interesting that @Cyclefree and I have both anticipated a bothersome mutation in the virus delaying the day of recovery into later in the year. We are fortunate in some respects that the current mutation does not seem to increase the severity of the disease, only its ability to spread (although that is a big enough problem, blowing several holes through the current tier system which is built upon anticipated R rates for certain activities).
My understanding is that over time viruses tend to become less virulent on the Darwinian principle that killing off your host is not the most efficient way to spread but this virus is a bastard, there is no doubt about it, and I think its inevitable that there will be a further sting in the tail.
Yesterday's infection rates were horrendous. January is going to be the worst month of the entire pandemic for deaths. The highly controversial relaxation over Christmas will no doubt get some of the blame but the sad truth is that it was baked in before Christmas even came. We can all only hope that the Oxford vaccine is indeed approved today and that we get many millions protected before the end of January.
One thing that is going to be key which we don't yet seem to know the answer to is whether the vaccines stop someone from being infectious, as opposed to not getting ill. We must all hope and pray that is so because nothing else is going to stop the spread of this new variant for a long time to come.
Not true about becoming less virulent. Rabies - been around for at least 5000 years, still virtually 100% lethal. Smallpox in the same ballpark. There are so many human beings that you would have to thin out 80% of them before the running out of hosts effect began to kick in.
Interesting although I thought rabies was rarely fatal with proper treatment. I have read that on here several times and it seemed plausible.
That’s true.
I turned down the chance to visit the US level 4 biosecurity rabies manufacturing plant because they would have had to give me the emergency vaccination which, at the time, was administered to the base of the spine from the front of the body.
I still shudder at the size of that needle...
Well, that's me staying away from all dogs and bats for the rest of my life, just in case.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
The point is where is the profit made, where is the tax paid and where are the bonuses paid? If we maintain competitive tax rates there will still be an inclination to book the profit here, whatever is done in an EU based subsidiary. Dublin is a bit more of a threat that way because of its low CT rates but most of mainland Europe isn't. If the critical mass remains based in London that is where they will pay their taxes and spend their loot.
Unless they want to seriously disrupt their economies in the middle of a severe recession they will want unrestricted access to London's skills.
Again you've made this point before, and again it won't work.
In the UK, if you want to set up a financial services company you're going to need a well capitalised company located set up in the UK, with the money ringfenced in the UK.
So if you want to trade in the EU the company will need a well capitalised subsidiary in a EU country/countries, with the money ringfenced there, so the EU company that the trade is happening in will book the trade and relevant taxes.
So transaction taxes and profits will be largely booked in the EU, whilst payroll taxes will be booked in the UK, for the UK you really want to former to be booked in the UK.
Thanks to this deal I'm now supervising regulatory compliance in the UK, Germany, The Netherlands, Ireland, and France, so thanks to the Brexiteers for the pay rise but quite frankly as a patriot I'd forego the pay rise to avoid the damage we've inflicted on the sector.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
Of course it will decline, we have just put up a load of trade barriers. You seem to be saying that Brexit isn't a big deal because we won't be trading much with Europe anyway after Brexit, which is certainly a novel take.
The deal is designed to keep those trade barriers to a minimum and allow the EU to remain competitive with the rest of the world in the UK market. I think that they will find that more difficult than they anticipate. Conversely, I expect a greater share of our trade to be with the rest of the world as it continues to grow faster than the EU.
I will be surprised if more than 30% of our trade is with the EU in 5 years time. That doesn't mean that it won't continue to be significant of course.
That's why it was so strange, inexplicable even, that Cameron didn't have the official Leave campaign put forward an outline of a platform. It was just EU, yes or no, which made things dramatically easier for Leave and harder for Remain (who nevertheless would've won if the campaign hadn't been so bad).
The blame for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
That should be so obvious it does not need saying. The credit for Brexit also lies with them. Why are they so afraid of being responsible for the successes and failures of their flagship belief!
By Spring most of the over 70s and at risk groups should be vaccinated and life should begin to return to normal, if not enough take the vaccine then it can be made compulsory.
Furlough will also then be eased and businesses which are no longer viable will then sadly no longer be operational
Blimey - I thought I was being realistic and hard-headed not downbeat.
What a bunch of Pollyannas you all are!
It is not just my daughter's travails that ail me. Her place is the only one still open in the area - but for how much longer. But also that of my sons who are finding life very hard. And my work fell off a cliff this year. I have just reinvented myself as an expert - and have just written an expert's report on whistleblowing - so am shamelessly advertising myself on here. There are plenty of people - freelancers etc - who are facing tough economic times, who do not have pensions and secure jobs, a group somewhat over-represented on here I feel. The line between economic security and insecurity is somewhat thinner than many realise.
I hope I am wrong and that things go better but nothing this government has done has given me confidence that the vaccination programme will be up and running consistently at the levels it needs to be. I have been shielding this year and expect to be for most of next year as well.
However I did plant some Gertrude Jekyll roses in 3 planters the day before Xmas. They have been voted England's favourite rose - and with good reason: beautiful, floriferous with gorgeous scent. You can see them in my avatar picture. With luck they will grow up the trellis I have just fixed in the home I hope to move into next year. So there is some hope there.
Gardeners plan for the future so are eternal optimists even if they may not be around to see the fruits of their labour.
Il faut cultiver son jardin, as that great cynic, Voltaire, once wrote.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
What a load of rubbish.
The financial services sector voted Remain mainly anyway, as did London.
However this Canada style deal is exactly what Leave voting regions from the Midlands to Wales, to the North and East and SouthWest of England were voting for. It avoids tariffs on goods, ends free movement, ends ECJ jurisdiction and regains sovereignty and enables us to do our own trade deals and reclaims some UK waters for UK fishermen.
If the financial sector finds it has not got its own way for once for most Leavers the response will be simple, tough.
Indeed after the referendum a Canada style Deal was the most popular form of Brexit, backed by 50% of voters to just 24% opposed
I think that a lot of us over-50s are now assuming that we'll be jabbed up by Easter and can then go about with carefree abandon. Getting into a mindset of 'Yes, I can hold out until then, but thankfully that will be it'.
If that doesn't happen, and the vaccination programme is much slower, that will be another psychological hammer blow.
And if we see footballers getting hold of a private supply through some dodgy back-channel, it will be even worse.
A lot of people don't appear to realise how bad things are at the moment and that they are going to get so much worse in January. Folk tend to switch off from the news during holiday time. They are in for a nasty surprise when they metaphorically wake up in the first week of January.
Good morning ladies & gentlemen, Poor Ms Cyclefree is not having a good time is she? Her family problems, especially, the lack of business in the hospitality sector, are clearly and understandably looming very, very, large in her mind.
As far as the vaccine and roll-out are concerned, I think (?hope) she's being too negative. There will be stutters and local problems (as we appear to have in N. Essex) but I think the NHS staff involved will move heaven and earth to get it done. The underfunding of community nursing services over the past few years is, though, coming home to roost. As people are vaccinated, then slowly the sectors which have been worst it will recover. They might not be quite the same as they were, but the people who can adapt to the 'new normal' will find opportunities.
Where I do agree with her is about deteriorating standards in public life; I think we will see more, especially low-level, corruption. 'Who one knows' will become increasingly important, and, bit by bit the integrity of our processes will be damaged. This might provide opportunity for someone with 'clean hands', but not I think until 2022.
The complexity of travelling to (and from) and doing business with Europe will, slowly get worse. At some point Nortedrn Ireland will decide to join the Republic; maybe not in 2021, but at their next elections pro-reunion and pro EU parties will eclipse the DUP.
And like Mr Dancer I suspect that China will make life increasingly difficult for Taiwan. An influx of Hong Kong Chinese citizens will not be 'popular' with anti-immigrant voters here either.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
The point is where is the profit made, where is the tax paid and where are the bonuses paid? If we maintain competitive tax rates there will still be an inclination to book the profit here, whatever is done in an EU based subsidiary. Dublin is a bit more of a threat that way because of its low CT rates but most of mainland Europe isn't. If the critical mass remains based in London that is where they will pay their taxes and spend their loot.
Unless they want to seriously disrupt their economies in the middle of a severe recession they will want unrestricted access to London's skills.
Looking at your last sentence, is that time-limited..........once the situation has steadied, will it be time for another look at the situation. From the EU side?
I think Douglas Adams is pretty popular in Deutschland. There's a hostel in Berlin called the Heart Of Gold; the name of the first starship to be equipped with the infinite improbability drive. https://www.heartofgold-hostel.de/dont-panic/
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
Of course it will decline, we have just put up a load of trade barriers. You seem to be saying that Brexit isn't a big deal because we won't be trading much with Europe anyway after Brexit, which is certainly a novel take.
The deal is designed to keep those trade barriers to a minimum and allow the EU to remain competitive with the rest of the world in the UK market. I think that they will find that more difficult than they anticipate. Conversely, I expect a greater share of our trade to be with the rest of the world as it continues to grow faster than the EU.
I will be surprised if more than 30$ of our trade is with the EU in 5 years time. That doesn't mean that it won't continue to be significant of course.
Agreed. They're already a minority of our trade and falling while members of the Single Market and without the ability to sign our own trade deals. The rebalancing betwee the EU and the Rest of the World will continue apace. I wouldn't go as far down as below 30% though, probably around 33% is more like it - and maybe by the end of the decade rather than 5 years time.
Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have moved ahead of the UK in terms of deaths per capita from Covid-19. Not sure what type of lockdowns they have in those countries.
Ok, all these prediction headers have got me in the mood for crystal balling, so here are my top 3 calls. I’m feeling quite bullish as you can tell -
(1) The vaccination rollout will go like clockwork and the Covid-19 pandemic will be all over by the summer. By the end of 2021 the capacity of people to adjust to the new and forget the old will be demonstrated once again as this short traumatic episode takes its rightful place as a blip in the relentless onward march of humanity towards a better world. Christmas 2021 will be the best ever. An extended 5 day celebration of all that is good and wholesome. Everyone will get exactly the present they wanted from their beloved.
(2) By this time next year something else that is deeply unpleasant and looms large now will be hardly discussed. I refer here to Brexit. It won’t be boredom that kills it, it will be the very opposite. There will be a reckoning, facilitated by the great & good from all sections of society, on the template of Nelson Mandela’s Truth & Reconciliation committee. It will be tough but it will work. At the end of it, Leavers and Remainers will recognize each other’s truths and they will indeed be reconciled. They will hug and make sincere promises to each other. The Bad Thing will thereafter not be mentioned.
(3) Boris Johnson will be reborn. Everyone knows our PM is a disgrace but what few know is that he realizes this himself and wishes fervently to upgrade. To this end he asked Santa this year for a moral compass plus a high tech piece of wearable kit which will allow him to distinguish fact from fiction. It will work like a dream. On 29th February, in the Big Reset, he will address the nation and deliver a long peroration of searing honesty and intelligence. Brexit myths will be exploded and the vacuous “levelling up” will be junked in favour of a ruthless bearing down on poverty and inequality. There will be much else besides, in particular a genuine focus on the environment. The Glasgow Green Forum will be an unadulterated triumph. At its close, Sir Richard Attenborough will announce with a straight face and not a hint of sarkiness that “Boris has saved the world”. Amazing. Who would have believed it?
Great piece although somewhat infused with your tendency to always expect the worst. On which note I did tell you the last time you went ultra gloomy that both a Trump 2nd term and a Brexit "no deal" were not happening events, didn't I?
Just a quick comment on your #6, the NHS being "not there". This is less prediction than reportage since it's already becoming the case. ICU capacity is insufficient. Same for O2. Ambulances are making tough decisions. And this is before it really hits.
I have been expecting the worst since the age of 16. I have rarely been proved wrong. It's why I'm good at my job. You can't even begin to try and solve problems if you refuse to be realistic about what is happening and what might go wrong.
Trump is going but the harm he has done to US democracy and to the Republican Party will long linger. Listen to what Jo Biden had to say yesterday about the hollowing out of the US's security apparatus and the lack of co-operation. The last time anything remotely like that happened the US got 9/11 because its security services had been rendered incapable by poor leadership. So that is very worrying.
Yes we avoided No Deal. If that is the limit of our ambition as a country, well, words fail me.
Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have moved ahead of the UK in terms of deaths per capita from Covid-19. Not sure what type of lockdowns they have in those countries.
After all the PB London phobes chatting shit about a mass exodus from the crime ridden hell-scape of the capital to the bucolic arcadia of their rural idylls, I was surprised to see that the fastest house price growth in the UK this year was in Islington. Perhaps the cachet of living next door to Dominic Cummings proved irresistible.
Some of these indices are not very reliable. It may be that the mix of properties sold in Islington changed rather than prices went up, and not sure the indices account well for that, if at all. More houses and garden flats than normal would have completed and less small flats, especially those with cladding in high rises.
I have been tracking prices in other parts of central London during lockdown and asking prices are clearly down, so would be quite surprised if Islington is really up 13%.
A sudden influx of higher value properties being sold because their owners were moving to get away from Cummings (or deciding to move to farms in Wales) would push the average sale price up, even as house prices generally were falling.
You might have thought that the people most keen to move out would be living in small flats without gardens. I detect little desire to leave among the local bourgeoisie in their £1.3mn 5 bed houses with nice big gardens here in SE London.
Yes but they need to find a buyer! Hardly anything has sold, this has only got 5 properties selling there apart from one (presumably new) development:
Whether low volume reflects lack of supply or demand is unknowable without additional information.
It is neither a lack of supply or demand in the traditional sense. There are lots of properties on sale in Islington, there are lots of realistic buyers who want them. It is a lack of agreed pricing that is the issue, sellers are looking at pre covid price anchors, and buyers are looking for significant reductions and/or are constrained by tighter mortgage lending amid economic uncertainty.
It's an Irish site, so there's no particular British political angle. I found it an interesting read.
You might not be surprised to learn that I don't agree with some of that but I have consistently said that the deal (before there was one) is a starting point, not an end point. The key for us is to have access for our financial services by the end of March (which is the target date). If we don't get it I think we seriously have to wonder how much this deal is actually in our interests given the massive trade imbalances.
Where I think that the piece gets it wrong is that it is somewhat parochial, it seems to work on the assumption that the EU is the rest of the world for us. It isn't and its share of our trade will decline, possibly quite sharply. How sharply will depend on how they behave.
I'm friends with a former Vote Leave staffers, they both privately admitted if that if the public knew back in 2016 that this would be the deal, Remain would have won. Compare the rhetoric of Vote Leave in 2016 with the reality of the deal.
This deal is likely as good as it gets for the financial services sector, I think you're likely to see an acceleration of movements of out of the UK and domiciling the trades into the EU, which is is going to well and truly screw Rishi Sunak's plans.
I think H1 2021 will be the reverse of the big bang of 1986. The only question left is in which EU country they domicile the trades in.
I think that this will prove to be far too pessimistic. Contrary to expectations the numbers employed in financial services has increased. London has a critical mass of skills in banking, finance, law and technology that nowhere else in Europe can come close to matching and it will continue to thrive.
But you keep on missing the point.
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
The point is where is the profit made, where is the tax paid and where are the bonuses paid? If we maintain competitive tax rates there will still be an inclination to book the profit here, whatever is done in an EU based subsidiary. Dublin is a bit more of a threat that way because of its low CT rates but most of mainland Europe isn't. If the critical mass remains based in London that is where they will pay their taxes and spend their loot.
Unless they want to seriously disrupt their economies in the middle of a severe recession they will want unrestricted access to London's skills.
Again you've made this point before, and again it won't work.
In the UK, if you want to set up a financial services company you're going to need a well capitalised company located set up in the UK, with the money ringfenced in the UK.
So if you want to trade in the EU the company will need a well capitalised subsidiary in a EU country/countries, with the money ringfenced there, so the EU company that the trade is happening in will book the trade and relevant taxes.
So transaction taxes and profits will be largely booked in the EU, whilst payroll taxes will be booked in the UK, for the UK you really want to former to be booked in the UK.
Thanks to this deal I'm now supervising regulatory compliance in the UK, Germany, The Netherlands, Ireland, and France, so thanks to the Brexiteers for the pay rise but quite frankly as a patriot I'd forego the pay rise to avoid the damage we've inflicted on the sector.
You say you work in this industry? Surely you have realised by now that is an automatic disqualification from knowing anything about it? Only the high priests of Brexit and their followers have a true understanding of the economy.
That's why it was so strange, inexplicable even, that Cameron didn't have the official Leave campaign put forward an outline of a platform. It was just EU, yes or no, which made things dramatically easier for Leave and harder for Remain (who nevertheless would've won if the campaign hadn't been so bad).
The blame for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
When a goalkeeper accidentally throws the ball to the opposing team's striker who taps in the goal you don't say the "blame" for the goal belongs with the striker. The striker did his job, it was the goalkeeper that screwed up.
The credit for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
The "blame" for Remainers losing the referendum rests squarely and solely on the Remain side.
I think that a lot of us over-50s are now assuming that we'll be jabbed up by Easter and can then go about with carefree abandon. Getting into a mindset of 'Yes, I can hold out until then, but thankfully that will be it'.
If that doesn't happen, and the vaccination programme is much slower, that will be another psychological hammer blow.
And if we see footballers getting hold of a private supply through some dodgy back-channel, it will be even worse.
A lot of people don't appear to realise how bad things are at the moment and that they are going to get so much worse in January. Folk tend to switch off from the news during holiday time. They are in for a nasty surprise when they metaphorically wake up in the first week of January.
All true, and a bit depressing but the days are already getting longer. As we move into spring and summer things will get better regardless.
Ok, all these prediction headers have got me in the mood for crystal balling, so here are my top 3 calls. I’m feeling quite bullish as you can tell -
(1) The vaccination rollout will go like clockwork and the Covid-19 pandemic will be all over by the summer. By the end of 2021 the capacity of people to adjust to the new and forget the old will be demonstrated once again as this short traumatic episode takes its rightful place as a blip in the relentless onward march of humanity towards a better world. Christmas 2021 will be the best ever. An extended 5 day celebration of all that is good and wholesome. Everyone will get exactly the present they wanted from their beloved.
(2) By this time next year something else that is deeply unpleasant and looms large now will be hardly discussed. I refer here to Brexit. It won’t be boredom that kills it, it will be the very opposite. There will be a reckoning, facilitated by the great & good from all sections of society, on the template of Nelson Mandela’s Truth & Reconciliation committee. It will be tough but it will work. At the end of it, Leavers and Remainers will recognize each other’s truths and they will indeed be reconciled. They will hug and make sincere promises to each other. The Bad Thing will thereafter not be mentioned.
(3) Boris Johnson will be reborn. Everyone knows our PM is a disgrace but what few know is that he realizes this himself and wishes fervently to upgrade. To this end he asked Santa this year for a moral compass plus a high tech piece of wearable kit which will allow him to distinguish fact from fiction. It will work like a dream. On 29th February, in the Big Reset, he will address the nation and deliver a long peroration of searing honesty and intelligence. Brexit myths will be exploded and the vacuous “levelling up” will be junked in favour of a ruthless bearing down on poverty and inequality. There will be much else besides, in particular a genuine focus on the environment. The Glasgow Green Forum will be an unadulterated triumph. At its close, Sir Richard Attenborough will announce with a straight face and not a hint of sarkiness that “Boris has saved the world”. Amazing. Who would have believed it?
I think Richard is dead. Presumably you mean David (pbuh). Other than that it has the feel of inevitability.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has announced new tougher coronavirus restrictions, a day after the country surpassed one million Covid-19 cases.
The measures include an overnight curfew from 21:00 to 06:00, as well as bans on indoor and outdoor gatherings and alcohol sales.
Ok, all these prediction headers have got me in the mood for crystal balling, so here are my top 3 calls. I’m feeling quite bullish as you can tell -
(1) The vaccination rollout will go like clockwork and the Covid-19 pandemic will be all over by the summer. By the end of 2021 the capacity of people to adjust to the new and forget the old will be demonstrated once again as this short traumatic episode takes its rightful place as a blip in the relentless onward march of humanity towards a better world. Christmas 2021 will be the best ever. An extended 5 day celebration of all that is good and wholesome. Everyone will get exactly the present they wanted from their beloved.
(2) By this time next year something else that is deeply unpleasant and looms large now will be hardly discussed. I refer here to Brexit. It won’t be boredom that kills it, it will be the very opposite. There will be a reckoning, facilitated by the great & good from all sections of society, on the template of Nelson Mandela’s Truth & Reconciliation committee. It will be tough but it will work. At the end of it, Leavers and Remainers will recognize each other’s truths and they will indeed be reconciled. They will hug and make sincere promises to each other. The Bad Thing will thereafter not be mentioned.
(3) Boris Johnson will be reborn. Everyone knows our PM is a disgrace but what few know is that he realizes this himself and wishes fervently to upgrade. To this end he asked Santa this year for a moral compass plus a high tech piece of wearable kit which will allow him to distinguish fact from fiction. It will work like a dream. On 29th February, in the Big Reset, he will address the nation and deliver a long peroration of searing honesty and intelligence. Brexit myths will be exploded and the vacuous “levelling up” will be junked in favour of a ruthless bearing down on poverty and inequality. There will be much else besides, in particular a genuine focus on the environment. The Glasgow Green Forum will be an unadulterated triumph. At its close, Sir Richard Attenborough will announce with a straight face and not a hint of sarkiness that “Boris has saved the world”. Amazing. Who would have believed it?
It is good to see a positive if tongue in cheek post
Well done but point of order
My birthday is on the 29th February and I have to wait until 2024 to achieve my 20th birthday
Comments
Bloody Apollo.
Was it Cyclefree?
Two Party members were talking about their departments. One asked, ‘Can you predict what our future will be in, say, four years?’ The other replied, ‘How could I? I can’t even predict where our past will be in four years.’
Isn't that exactly what May and Davis were condemned for when they accepted the Withdrawal Agreement / Future Relationship structure?
https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1343655869473562631?s=20
UK science providing 43% of total global updates, nearly five times the next biggest contributor,
the USA.Switzerland.I like the Russian spirit. It matches the Leicester mardiness, where all change is recognised to be for the worse.
English speaking,
Guinness on tap, seems as good a place as any.
Here it is in 2018:
https://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/Health-Care-News/over-1400-empty-beds-in-ghost-wards-branded-a-scandal-by-labour
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1343864212150431745?s=20
The some of the jobs will remain in the UK but for purposes of booking the transactions the trades will now take place in various EU countries, which means the UK Exchequer loses the revenue and various EU countries gain revenues for their countries.
I mean it isn't like financial services is the biggest contributor to the UK Exchequer.
The other point I've made (and some people at the DMO have also mentioned) is that the government's Internal Market Bill has damaged our legal sector, as has the plans to castrate the judiciary.
One of the main attractions of doing business in the UK is that we had a strong legal sector backed up by a strong and independent judiciary that does put the government back in its box, but we now have a government that thinks breaking international treaties is fine.
What’s that you say, Dan is also for dumbos?
While market players hope that years of preparations since Britain voted to leave the European Union means the transition of most euro-denominated assets like shares and derivatives out of the country will be relatively smooth, the long-term impact is unclear...
It’s not the start of the end of London, but it’s pretty bloody embarrassing and a huge own goal for Britain,” said Aquis’ Haynes
https://twitter.com/quackophage/status/1343661812621996032
A pessimist goes through life being mildly pleased and suprised that things did not turn out as bad as he feared
An optimist has a lifetime of being disappointed that things did not turn out as well as he hoped
I turned down the chance to visit the US level 4 biosecurity rabies manufacturing plant because they would have had to give me the emergency vaccination which, at the time, was administered to the base of the spine from the front of the body.
I still shudder at the size of that needle...
https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1343703940932784130
The blame for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
There is evidence that the EU are already coming to terms with the inevitable on this: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-clearing/eu-to-throw-london-lifeline-with-extension-to-coveted-clearing-idUKKBN26622C
Unless they want to seriously disrupt their economies in the middle of a severe recession they will want unrestricted access to London's skills.
What a bunch of Pollyannas you all are!
It is not just my daughter's travails that ail me. Her place is the only one still open in the area - but for how much longer. But also that of my sons who are finding life very hard. And my work fell off a cliff this year. I have just reinvented myself as an expert - and have just written an expert's report on whistleblowing - so am shamelessly advertising myself on here. There are plenty of people - freelancers etc - who are facing tough economic times, who do not have pensions and secure jobs, a group somewhat over-represented on here I feel. The line between economic security and insecurity is somewhat thinner than many realise.
I hope I am wrong and that things go better but nothing this government has done has given me confidence that the vaccination programme will be up and running consistently at the levels it needs to be. I have been shielding this year and expect to be for most of next year as well.
However I did plant some Gertrude Jekyll roses in 3 planters the day before Xmas. They have been voted England's favourite rose - and with good reason: beautiful, floriferous with gorgeous scent. You can see them in my avatar picture. With luck they will grow up the trellis I have just fixed in the home I hope to move into next year. So there is some hope there.
Gardeners plan for the future so are eternal optimists even if they may not be around to see the fruits of their labour.
Il faut cultiver son jardin, as that great cynic, Voltaire, once wrote.
Entirely appropriate to put a picture of dolphins in the air with that quote.
In the UK, if you want to set up a financial services company you're going to need a well capitalised company located set up in the UK, with the money ringfenced in the UK.
So if you want to trade in the EU the company will need a well capitalised subsidiary in a EU country/countries, with the money ringfenced there, so the EU company that the trade is happening in will book the trade and relevant taxes.
So transaction taxes and profits will be largely booked in the EU, whilst payroll taxes will be booked in the UK, for the UK you really want to former to be booked in the UK.
Thanks to this deal I'm now supervising regulatory compliance in the UK, Germany, The Netherlands, Ireland, and France, so thanks to the Brexiteers for the pay rise but quite frankly as a patriot I'd forego the pay rise to avoid the damage we've inflicted on the sector.
I will be surprised if more than 30% of our trade is with the EU in 5 years time. That doesn't mean that it won't continue to be significant of course.
By Spring most of the over 70s and at risk groups should be vaccinated and life should begin to return to normal, if not enough take the vaccine then it can be made compulsory.
Furlough will also then be eased and businesses which are no longer viable will then sadly no longer be operational
The financial services sector voted Remain mainly anyway, as did London.
However this Canada style deal is exactly what Leave voting regions from the Midlands to Wales, to the North and East and SouthWest of England were voting for. It avoids tariffs on goods, ends free movement, ends ECJ jurisdiction and regains sovereignty and enables us to do our own trade deals and reclaims some UK waters for UK fishermen.
If the financial sector finds it has not got its own way for once for most Leavers the response will be simple, tough.
Indeed after the referendum a Canada style Deal was the most popular form of Brexit, backed by 50% of voters to just 24% opposed
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
If that doesn't happen, and the vaccination programme is much slower, that will be another psychological hammer blow.
And if we see footballers getting hold of a private supply through some dodgy back-channel, it will be even worse.
A lot of people don't appear to realise how bad things are at the moment and that they are going to get so much worse in January. Folk tend to switch off from the news during holiday time. They are in for a nasty surprise when they metaphorically wake up in the first week of January.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scramble-to-secure-free-healthcare-through-european-health-insurance-card-50k3k8p0f
https://www.heartofgold-hostel.de/dont-panic/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
(1) The vaccination rollout will go like clockwork and the Covid-19 pandemic will be all over by the summer. By the end of 2021 the capacity of people to adjust to the new and forget the old will be demonstrated once again as this short traumatic episode takes its rightful place as a blip in the relentless onward march of humanity towards a better world. Christmas 2021 will be the best ever. An extended 5 day celebration of all that is good and wholesome. Everyone will get exactly the present they wanted from their beloved.
(2) By this time next year something else that is deeply unpleasant and looms large now will be hardly discussed. I refer here to Brexit. It won’t be boredom that kills it, it will be the very opposite. There will be a reckoning, facilitated by the great & good from all sections of society, on the template of Nelson Mandela’s Truth & Reconciliation committee. It will be tough but it will work. At the end of it, Leavers and Remainers will recognize each other’s truths and they will indeed be reconciled. They will hug and make sincere promises to each other. The Bad Thing will thereafter not be mentioned.
(3) Boris Johnson will be reborn. Everyone knows our PM is a disgrace but what few know is that he realizes this himself and wishes fervently to upgrade. To this end he asked Santa this year for a moral compass plus a high tech piece of wearable kit which will allow him to distinguish fact from fiction. It will work like a dream. On 29th February, in the Big Reset, he will address the nation and deliver a long peroration of searing honesty and intelligence. Brexit myths will be exploded and the vacuous “levelling up” will be junked in favour of a ruthless bearing down on poverty and inequality. There will be much else besides, in particular a genuine focus on the environment. The Glasgow Green Forum will be an unadulterated triumph. At its close, Sir Richard Attenborough will announce with a straight face and not a hint of sarkiness that “Boris has saved the world”. Amazing. Who would have believed it?
Trump is going but the harm he has done to US democracy and to the Republican Party will long linger. Listen to what Jo Biden had to say yesterday about the hollowing out of the US's security apparatus and the lack of co-operation. The last time anything remotely like that happened the US got 9/11 because its security services had been rendered incapable by poor leadership. So that is very worrying.
Yes we avoided No Deal. If that is the limit of our ambition as a country, well, words fail me.
Czechs hold 'farewell party' for pandemic
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53244688
https://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_market_report.htm?location=islington&startmonth=12&startyear=2019&endmonth=12&endyear=2020
This site has the number of properties on sale in Islington up 54% year on year.
The credit for Brexit lies with those who wanted it, campaigned for it, voted for it.
The "blame" for Remainers losing the referendum rests squarely and solely on the Remain side.
The measures include an overnight curfew from 21:00 to 06:00, as well as bans on indoor and outdoor gatherings and alcohol sales.
Well done but point of order
My birthday is on the 29th February and I have to wait until 2024 to achieve my 20th birthday
https://twitter.com/williemillersm1/status/1343832422790668289