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The other side of the bet. The ethics of political gambling. – politicalbetting.com

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  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Is there anything to stop them doing it tomorrow or Monday etc ?

    Are you suggesting they should use the army to block off the M25 ?
    Some people on here were genuinely suggesting that in March
  • IanB2 said:

    A period of silence from all those who voted a clown to govern us would be a nice Christmas present right now.

    As would a period of silence from those who ensured that the choice was between Corbyn and Johnstone. PB would be much diminished though. I speak as a principled coward who voted Lib Dem.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,007

    This forum is raging against Boris but those doing so are mainly those who are anti brexit or on the right

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this over the next few days

    I believe previous polling was that people were majority against the Christmas bubbles in any case, yet a majority were also planning to make use of them, so I don't know that the polling response will be entirely conherent.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,731
    Honestly someone needs to go an find Grant Shapps and punch him in the face really, really, really hard until he closes the airports.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not that we should welcome the new strain, but without it as a justification which does not blame the public or the government (no one can be blamed for a new strain appearing), I wonder if Boris would have taken this action, no matter the cost.
    The right outcome which should have been set in stone ten weeks ago
    Why? Ten weeks ago we didn't know how the virus would progress. Plenty of other countries have just announced Christmas restrictions
    It’s obvious that any activity which introduces relative strangers into a group spreads the virus. That could easily foreseen and avoided they should have said that when this is over there will be a week long national holiday but this Christmas is at home without mass mixing. We need people with vision in charge not reactive robots.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer on fire. Controlled anger and contempt.

    Speaking for a nation.

    Has he mentioned unrestricted entry into the UK yet ?

    Or does he still support it.
    Why are you obsessed with the "foreign invader" aspect of the virus?

    Just seems a bit odd to me. It's relevant, sure, but still.
    As you say its relevant.

    And Starmer has completely ignored it ?

    Why is that ? Its been an open goal since March.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,785
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    I don't think anyone is saying that. But given that it was detected in September and it was being flagged in November I think questions can be asked as to his actions since.
    CMO stated it was only later this week they discovered just how serious this new strain is and hence their advice today
    Yes. They kept saying this was information they got yesterday.
    Sorry to be a stuck record but look at the chronology. Remember on Wednesday when everyone on here was saying how wonderful Johnson was against Starmer at PMQs.

    "How common is it?
    As of 13 December (my emphasis), 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

    Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December ( my emphasis) that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

    Does this variant spread more quickly?
    Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December (my emphasis) that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise."


    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

    So, on 14 December the Cabinet were aware, and one of its members told Parliament, that the new varient could have been causing the rises in SE England. Yet two days later, on 16 December, Johnson was pithily rubbishing Starmer for pointing out that there was a worrying rise in cases in the SE. Johnson knew at that point there was a possibility, even if it had not been confirmed, yet his messaging did not change one iota.

    He's a campaigner. A debater. A writer. A pitchman. But he can't govern. And we are all going to be much worse off as a result.
    We're all going to be much worse off because he made the announcement today - after the scientific investigation into the new strain's increased rate of transmission had concluded - rather than a few days ago, when it was still ongoing? Really? The practical difference is minimal.
    Preliminary results by last Monday, as Hancock told Parliament, suggested that the new varient may be behind the increase. Yet on Wednesday Johnson was acting like nothing had changed. Why do you think the practical differnence is minimal? The Government knew by Monday at the latest that this new varient may have been associated with increased levels of transmission but did nothing. They wasted a whole week. There are roughtly 500 deaths a day from this virus. How many lives would erring on the side of caution and bringing this in a week ago based on preiminary indications have saved?
    Andf becvause the growth is normally exponential, that extra deaths comes out as a multiplier of all subsequent deaths - not just those over the 3-4 days or whatever the putative delay was (could have been a lot more).
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,865
    malcolmg said:

    Pagan2 said:

    People have already made plans for christmas. Its easier not to make a plan than cancel plans so I think a high percentage are going to be saying sod it and still going ahead frankly so I doubt this tightening is going to go anywhere near denting the rise in cases. Prepare for further measures in january

    pretty stupid to kill your family for a turkey dinner. Fecks sake my old man was away from home for nearly 5 years in the war, not a few months. My ,other saw him once or twice whilst they did mountain training in Scotland and that was it , no choice.
    Because for some families the lockdown is causing more harm than the actual disease. As I said upthread my fathers mental derioration since march is marked. The 10% chance of dying for him would have been a far better bet than what lockdown has done to him. For him christmas would be a lifeline.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,363

    Just updating my ignore list.

    I am furious with the chaos in Wales, Horse. It is not a Labour thing but it is a Corbynista Welsh Labour fiasco. The Trotskyist Drakeford has now exported his failure across the border.

    For personal reasons that I won't go into, I have a dog in the "no lockdown until Boxing Day" race!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,525
    Why has the Eastern region gone from being one of the areas of lowest concern to one of the highest so quickly?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,785
    MaxPB said:

    How have we not closed the border and shut down all incoming and outgoing flights until this mutant covid strain has been dealt with?!

    Nio problem, we are doing that on 1.1.21 anyway.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    MaxPB said:

    Honestly someone needs to go an find Grant Shapps and punch him in the face really, really, really hard until he closes the airports.

    He’s currently on a bus somewhere with a cheap ticket
  • This new variant adding 0.4 to base R is just massive. Tiers with the old variant at best just held the waves back for a bit, add 0.4 ontop of that, we need to prepare for months of next year to be regular lockdowns.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Surely we can’t be going for No Deal in 12 days under these circumstances?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Is there anything to stop them doing it tomorrow or Monday etc ?

    Are you suggesting they should use the army to block off the M25 ?
    Why not?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,785

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Is there anything to stop them doing it tomorrow or Monday etc ?

    Are you suggesting they should use the army to block off the M25 ?
    Some people on here were genuinely suggesting that in March
    Notg to mention closing the Welsh border more recently.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,363

    Just updating my ignore list.

    If you want an echo chamber then Twitter is more easily set up for that than PB.
    My irony meter has just exploded!
  • Alistair said:

    Oh bejesus, are we still not restricting air travel.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1340228304679395329
    Can we close the border after her flight has departed?
  • Surely we can’t be going for No Deal in 12 days under these circumstances?

    Oh yes we are.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Scott_xP said:
    Incoming reference to 2008 in 5,4,3,2.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Just updating my ignore list.

    If you want an echo chamber then Twitter is more easily set up for that than PB.
    Twitter is certainly more easily set up for that than PB.
  • I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
    Mrs PtP is upset for private reasons. Boredom would be my biggest problem but it sounds like we'll be going on an eight hour hike along the Cotswold Way, so that should help. Just hope it doesn't rain.

    Dog will love it, especially if it rains.

    Things really could be a lot worse.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,123
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
    England only, presumably.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,092
    nichomar said:

    Johnson’s problem is he can’t resist trying to leave every statement with a positive view on the future. It was stupid to guarantee Christmas a few weeks ago, and he’s just done the same promising the vaccine will solve everything! What if it doesn’t,he will look a pillock yet again. Without these senseless projections he would be viewed as no worse than other European leaders.

    Yes a lot of the problem is the comms. The boosterism and the juvenile politics. Just on Wed mocking Starmer as the man who wanted to cancel Christmas. It's not right for these times.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,123
    Have to say I am relieved that the tiers are being stuck with this time.
  • Jonathan said:

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
    Good for you. I am seriously worried about my 80yr old in laws who seem to be developing serious depression through this lockdown. Christmas was a ray of light, now gone. Some things are as serious as CV19.
    My sympathies.

    There are few easy choices and certainly no perfect options.

    Everything is a balance of risks.
  • Surely we can’t be going for No Deal in 12 days under these circumstances?

    Perfect timing for it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,007
    It has a clear exit strategy - vaccinate people. What he's asking for is a promise that the government never change tack to increase restrictions, despite even a competent government not being omnipitent enough to guarantee that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    5% of cases in Yorkshire are the mutation. We're all going to be in Tier 4 soon enough.

    Obviously. People have been pouring out of London for the past week to go home for Christmas. Especially young people and students.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,007
    Does Tory MPs already being mad at Boris make it easier for him to avoid no deal, or more likely to no deal as he won't want to upset them further?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    This forum is raging against Boris but those doing so are mainly those who are anti brexit or on the right

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this over the next few days

    Nothing to do with brexit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,007
    MaxPB said:

    Honestly someone needs to go an find Grant Shapps and punch him in the face really, really, really hard until he closes the airports.

    I believe the expression is 'fixed that for you'.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    MaxPB said:

    Honestly someone needs to go an find Grant Shapps and punch him in the face really, really, really hard until he closes the airports.

    Surely if you want to affect his brains it would be better to punch him in the arse?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    How have we not closed the border and shut down all incoming and outgoing flights until this mutant covid strain has been dealt with?!

    Nio problem, we are doing that on 1.1.21 anyway.
    Ironic that you are using the European way of writing dates rather than the standard UK version 1/1/21
  • Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Indeed! Ask Dominic Cummings
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Incoming reference to 2008 in 5,4,3,2.....
    It’s damning when a PM is so bad that even JAMES GORDON BROWN can criticise them.
  • Presumably when the site rages against Labour it’s all good sport right? I am utterly fed up with certain people here pretending they’re impartial.

    You’re not, you’re just pro-Tory. I’m pro-Labour, at least I don’t pretend otherwise every week.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    I don't think anyone is saying that. But given that it was detected in September and it was being flagged in November I think questions can be asked as to his actions since.
    CMO stated it was only later this week they discovered just how serious this new strain is and hence their advice today
    Yes. They kept saying this was information they got yesterday.
    Sorry to be a stuck record but look at the chronology. Remember on Wednesday when everyone on here was saying how wonderful Johnson was against Starmer at PMQs.

    "How common is it?
    As of 13 December (my emphasis), 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

    Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December ( my emphasis) that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

    Does this variant spread more quickly?
    Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December (my emphasis) that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise."


    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

    So, on 14 December the Cabinet were aware, and one of its members told Parliament, that the new varient could have been causing the rises in SE England. Yet two days later, on 16 December, Johnson was pithily rubbishing Starmer for pointing out that there was a worrying rise in cases in the SE. Johnson knew at that point there was a possibility, even if it had not been confirmed, yet his messaging did not change one iota.

    He's a campaigner. A debater. A writer. A pitchman. But he can't govern. And we are all going to be much worse off as a result.
    It's the same pattern as what happened right at the start of the virus, when the UK dragged its heels was last into lockdown, losing about 2 weeks' head start that other countries had used to good effect.

    Johnson was noticeable evasive at his briefing in response to a question specifically on this point, falling back on just repeating the claim that he acted in response to scientific advice on the new strain yesterday, which won't wash.

  • Where it may have come from:

    These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections.

    Although we speculate here that chronic infection played a role in the origins of the B.1.1.7 variant, this remains a hypothesis and we cannot yet infer the precise nature of this event.


    https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Incoming reference to 2008 in 5,4,3,2.....
    It’s damning when a PM is so bad that even JAMES GORDON BROWN can criticise them.
    Instead of "Damned by faint praise", you mean he's "Damned by the Damned"
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited December 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Incoming reference to 2008 in 5,4,3,2.....
    The twat had 11 years to prepare for the financial crisis of 2008, first as Chancellor, then as Prime Minister, so quite where he gets the sheer effrontery to criticize the PM over his response to a situation that changes day by day is an aporon inside a conundrum inside an enigma.

    You're welcome!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Indeed! Ask Dominic Cummings
    Durham is actually at the other end of England from Devon.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kinabalu said:

    nichomar said:

    Johnson’s problem is he can’t resist trying to leave every statement with a positive view on the future. It was stupid to guarantee Christmas a few weeks ago, and he’s just done the same promising the vaccine will solve everything! What if it doesn’t,he will look a pillock yet again. Without these senseless projections he would be viewed as no worse than other European leaders.

    Yes a lot of the problem is the comms. The boosterism and the juvenile politics. Just on Wed mocking Starmer as the man who wanted to cancel Christmas. It's not right for these times.
    True Johnson does not have a deft touch in dire times.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,080
    Roger said:
    That's quite a postmodern article.

    The Guardian spending 1000+ words to refute some things that Liz Truss did not actually say.
  • Positive tests recorded today:

    UK 27k
    NL12k - 49k if scaled up
    CZ 9k - 54k if scaled up

    There will be other countries with other variants.

    I also wonder if Belgium has had a more infectious variant.
  • Several aspects of this cluster are noteworthy for epidemiological and biological reasons and we report preliminary findings below. In summary:
    The B.1.1.7 lineage accounts for an increasing proportion of cases in parts of England. The number of B.1.1.7 cases, and the number of regions reporting B.1.1.7 infections, are growing.

    B.1.1.7 has an unusually large number of genetic changes, particularly in the spike protein.
    Three of these mutations have potential biological effects that have been described previously to varying extents:

    Mutation N501Y is one of six key contact residues within the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and has been identified as increasing binding affinity to human and murine ACE2.
    The spike deletion 69-70del has been described in the context of evasion to the human immune response but has also occurred a number of times in association with other RBD changes.
    Mutation P681H is immediately adjacent to the furin cleavage site, a known location of biological significance.

    https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,785
    eristdoof said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    How have we not closed the border and shut down all incoming and outgoing flights until this mutant covid strain has been dealt with?!

    Nio problem, we are doing that on 1.1.21 anyway.
    Ironic that you are using the European way of writing dates rather than the standard UK version 1/1/21
    Oh, is that the difference? I had no idea - but it is clearer with my handwriting anyway! I am European, anyway ...
  • Presumably when the site rages against Labour it’s all good sport right? I am utterly fed up with certain people here pretending they’re impartial.

    You’re not, you’re just pro-Tory. I’m pro-Labour, at least I don’t pretend otherwise every week.

    The difference is most people think for themselves.

    I will attack the Tories when I disagree with them. I attacked something Boris said while he was still talking.

    You, like HYUFD, seem to only care about the footballisation of it all. 'My team good your team bad'.
  • Surely we can’t be going for No Deal in 12 days under these circumstances?

    It's already been implemented
  • ydoethur said:

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Indeed! Ask Dominic Cummings
    Durham is actually at the other end of England from Devon.
    Similar distance from pox central though
  • Positive tests recorded today:

    UK 27k
    NL12k - 49k if scaled up
    CZ 9k - 54k if scaled up

    There will be other countries with other variants.

    I also wonder if Belgium has had a more infectious variant.
    And Sweden? They were doing relatively well until a couple of weeks or so ago.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kle4 said:

    It has a clear exit strategy - vaccinate people. What he's asking for is a promise that the government never change tack to increase restrictions, despite even a competent government not being omnipitent enough to guarantee that.
    I don't think so. He is merely asking for new restrictions imposed on personal liberties to be debated and agreed by parliament.

    As they are, you know, in a democracy.

    Many of these rules are being imposed by people who are not accountable, whose very high income and lives are not affected, and whose science is in dispute by academics of standing.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
    Mrs PtP is upset for private reasons. Boredom would be my biggest problem but it sounds like we'll be going on an eight hour hike along the Cotswold Way, so that should help. Just hope it doesn't rain.

    Dog will love it, especially if it rains.

    Things really could be a lot worse.
    Sounds great. I hope lots of people discover doing somthing different and relaxing with nature this Christmas.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,092

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    This will be see the biggest anger amongst the Tory base since May cancelled Brexit last year

    Will it? I know you have a great instinct for Tory opinion, but greater restrictions remain resolutely and surprisingly popular.
    From observation people who think more restrictions are a good thing often seem to also think they have good reasons why the restrictions shouldn't be applying to them. We heard many of those reasons at times here such as "but I am sensible and avoid human contact when doing x unlike those that need restricting". It's sort of like surveys which report people are in favour of higher taxes where the unspoken part of the agreement is "for other people richer than me"
    I favour higher taxes on people like me. That's why I would leave the unspoken part unspoken.
    Head down to your local tax office with your cheque book and you will be able to pay as much extra as you wish.
    Nope. I support higher taxes for people like me. I'd vote for that. I don't have to pretend we already have them.
    Its easy to support things you know aren't likely to happen.
    And just as easy when they are if your support is genuine - as mine is for higher taxes on the better off.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Presumably when the site rages against Labour it’s all good sport right? I am utterly fed up with certain people here pretending they’re impartial.

    You’re not, you’re just pro-Tory. I’m pro-Labour, at least I don’t pretend otherwise every week.

    The difference is most people think for themselves.

    I will attack the Tories when I disagree with them. I attacked something Boris said while he was still talking.

    You, like HYUFD, seem to only care about the footballisation of it all. 'My team good your team bad'.
    HYUFD believes in tyranny of the 51%, like two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Positive tests recorded today:

    UK 27k
    NL12k - 49k if scaled up
    CZ 9k - 54k if scaled up

    There will be other countries with other variants.

    I also wonder if Belgium has had a more infectious variant.
    And Sweden? They were doing relatively well until a couple of weeks or so ago.
    Whatever you say about Sweden, they will be in a much stronger position that us when vaccines take effect.

    Their economy is far, far less shattered and broken that ours is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,512

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    I expect to see photos in papers tomorrow of traffic jams for exits out of London.
    Happened in Paris...
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Surely we can’t be going for No Deal in 12 days under these circumstances?

    Perfect timing for it.
    Hardly loads of truckers huddling together seems the opposite to me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    I expect to see photos in papers tomorrow of traffic jams for exits out of London.
    Happened in Paris...
    https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1340339267067887617?s=20
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,821
    Anyone else chilled by Johnson's remark -' raise a glass for those who aren't there. There's a better chance they will be there next year.' A better chance? Is that all it is?

    This is not a criticism. I would however like to have a clear expression of a covid strategy. When is mass vaccination likely to be complete? What do we do if it isn't effective?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Scottish border closed
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345

    ydoethur said:

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Indeed! Ask Dominic Cummings
    Durham is actually at the other end of England from Devon.
    Similar distance from pox central though
    No it isn’t. Exeter is 173 miles from London, Durham is 269.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    This forum is raging against Boris but those doing so are mainly those who are anti brexit or on the right

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this over the next few days


    A quick look suggests that only one person on this forum is raging about the Tier 4 for Christmas, the other negative comments are to do with the lack of consistency coming out of Downing Street.

    There is lots of "Raging against Boris" being reposted from Twitter. But thankfully this forum is not Twitter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,512

    Presumably when the site rages against Labour it’s all good sport right? I am utterly fed up with certain people here pretending they’re impartial.

    You’re not, you’re just pro-Tory. I’m pro-Labour, at least I don’t pretend otherwise every week.

    The difference is most people think for themselves.

    I will attack the Tories when I disagree with them. I attacked something Boris said while he was still talking.

    You, like HYUFD, seem to only care about the footballisation of it all. 'My team good your team bad'.
    HYUFD believes in tyranny of the 51%, like two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
    I blame the sheep's vegan manifesto.....
  • Scott_xP said:
    For the love of God announce that the talks will go on into the new year and there will be a six month extension to cope with an extreme worsening in the pandemic.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,007
    edited December 2020

    kle4 said:

    It has a clear exit strategy - vaccinate people. What he's asking for is a promise that the government never change tack to increase restrictions, despite even a competent government not being omnipitent enough to guarantee that.
    I don't think so. He is merely asking for new restrictions imposed on personal liberties to be debated and agreed by parliament.

    As they are, you know, in a democracy.

    Many of these rules are being imposed by people who are not accountable, whose very high income and lives are not affected, and whose science is in dispute by academics of standing.

    The parliamentary debate and scrutiny part is certainly a valid complaint and one which at times parliamentarians have been too supine about, but for one it is not the case they are imposed by those who are not accountable, since Boris and the Cabinet are accountable yet you persistently are pretending some unelected person is doing it, and for two, he is complaining about the lack of exit strategy as he sees it and the nature of the decisions being taken, not merely how they are being taken, so he is definitely also simply criticising the decisions in a way which is unreasonable given the government can have all the plans in the world, and they could be agreed in parliament after debate, and the situation could then change. There's a reason we have a government after all, to respond to things day to day - that doesn't mean Boris doesn't seek to avoid parliament, I agree he does, but it is pretty clear when people want more debate, and when they want control which is not reasonable.
  • On a point of law, is all this enforceable or advice

    I am not qualified to say
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    ping said:

    Scottish border closed

    @HYUFD get the tanks up there quick
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345

    Scott_xP said:
    For the love of God announce that the talks will go on into the new year and there will be a six month extension to cope with an extreme worsening in the pandemic.

    He can’t do that without recalling Parliament.
  • Presumably when the site rages against Labour it’s all good sport right? I am utterly fed up with certain people here pretending they’re impartial.

    You’re not, you’re just pro-Tory. I’m pro-Labour, at least I don’t pretend otherwise every week.

    The difference is most people think for themselves.

    I will attack the Tories when I disagree with them. I attacked something Boris said while he was still talking.

    You, like HYUFD, seem to only care about the footballisation of it all. 'My team good your team bad'.
    HYUFD believes in tyranny of the 51%, like two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
    No if the 51% don't back him or his cherrypicked push opinion poll then it can be discarded. If 51% of Scots vote for a new independence referendum then they can go swivel and we will send in the jackboots in his world.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It has a clear exit strategy - vaccinate people. What he's asking for is a promise that the government never change tack to increase restrictions, despite even a competent government not being omnipitent enough to guarantee that.
    I don't think so. He is merely asking for new restrictions imposed on personal liberties to be debated and agreed by parliament.

    As they are, you know, in a democracy.

    Many of these rules are being imposed by people who are not accountable, whose very high income and lives are not affected, and whose science is in dispute by academics of standing.

    The parliamentary debate and scrutiny part is certainly a valid complaint and one which at times parliamentarians have been too supine about, but for one it is not the case they are imposed by those who are not accountable, since Boris and the Cabinet are accountable yet you persistently are pretending some unelected person is doing it, and for two, he is complaining about the lack of exit strategy as he sees it and the nature of the decisions being taken, not merely how they are being taken, so he is definitely also simply criticising the decisions in a way which is unreasonable given the government can have all the plans in the world, and they could be agreed in parliament after debate, and the situation could then change. There's a reason we have a government after all, to respond to things day to day - that doesn't mean Boris doesn't seek to avoid parliament, I agree he does, but it is pretty clear when people want more debate, and when they want control which not reasonable.
    Excellent post
  • Presumably when the site rages against Labour it’s all good sport right? I am utterly fed up with certain people here pretending they’re impartial.

    You’re not, you’re just pro-Tory. I’m pro-Labour, at least I don’t pretend otherwise every week.

    The difference is most people think for themselves.

    I will attack the Tories when I disagree with them. I attacked something Boris said while he was still talking.

    You, like HYUFD, seem to only care about the footballisation of it all. 'My team good your team bad'.
    HYUFD believes in tyranny of the 51%, like two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
    Tories just believe in the food chain
  • This new variant adding 0.4 to base R is just massive. Tiers with the old variant at best just held the waves back for a bit, add 0.4 ontop of that, we need to prepare for months of next year to be regular lockdowns.

    Much more is now riding on whether the Oxford vaccine has the bonus of reducing onward transmission of the virus. I read somewhere that preliminary findings were that the half dose but not the full dose version had quite a useful effect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,007
    I should think Boris's personal ratings will take a hit this month. A recovery off the back of vaccine news and a return to semi normality in December, as well as some tub thumping with the EU, to be followed by either no deal or a deal the Faragists will condemn, and the situation requiring a reversal of positive plans for Christmas.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,785
    edited December 2020

    ping said:

    Scottish border closed

    @HYUFD get the tanks up there quick
    [ignore - something wrong with the feed I'm using]
  • Yorkcity said:

    Surely we can’t be going for No Deal in 12 days under these circumstances?

    Perfect timing for it.
    Hardly loads of truckers huddling together seems the opposite to me.
    Why should the truckers huddle together?

    Why aren't trucks socially distanced?

    If loads of trucks are going to clog up the roads then having all the locals at home keeping the streets clear otherwise seems pretty perfect.
  • Scott_xP said:
    For the love of God announce that the talks will go on into the new year and there will be a six month extension to cope with an extreme worsening in the pandemic.

    That is not going to happen, not least because covid gives a lot of cover and will be blamed
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,092

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer on fire. Controlled anger and contempt.

    Speaking for a nation.

    Has he mentioned unrestricted entry into the UK yet ?

    Or does he still support it.
    Why are you obsessed with the "foreign invader" aspect of the virus?

    Just seems a bit odd to me. It's relevant, sure, but still.
    As you say its relevant.

    And Starmer has completely ignored it ?

    Why is that ? Its been an open goal since March.
    I genuinely don't know. Perhaps he doesn't see it as a priority compared to the things he IS majoring on.

    What do you think the reason is?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    eristdoof said:

    This forum is raging against Boris but those doing so are mainly those who are anti brexit or on the right

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this over the next few days


    A quick look suggests that only one person on this forum is raging about the Tier 4 for Christmas, the other negative comments are to do with the lack of consistency coming out of Downing Street.

    There is lots of "Raging against Boris" being reposted from Twitter. But thankfully this forum is not Twitter.
    There are several questions around Tier 4. For example, how long does it last? What happens when schools go back? Will it be extended to other areas, and if so, on what basis?

    But truthfully, the key issue is he said he would not ‘cancel Christmas,’ made a party political point out of it, and has now had to eat his words - which shows he just doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    I expect to see photos in papers tomorrow of traffic jams for exits out of London.
    Happened in Paris...
    https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1340339267067887617?s=20
    If I try and drive three miles south of home towards Murcia I will be stopped and without any urgent reason to cross the border will be turned around, the registration will go in the computer, if I try again I’ll be fined on the spot and if argumentative, arrested. No problem once you know that is what will happen you don’t try.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,007

    Presumably when the site rages against Labour it’s all good sport right? I am utterly fed up with certain people here pretending they’re impartial.

    You’re not, you’re just pro-Tory. I’m pro-Labour, at least I don’t pretend otherwise every week.

    The difference is most people think for themselves.
    That seems exhausting. If anyone would like to do my thinking for me they are welcome to it, frankly.

    A good evening to all.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,288
    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pagan2 said:

    People have already made plans for christmas. Its easier not to make a plan than cancel plans so I think a high percentage are going to be saying sod it and still going ahead frankly so I doubt this tightening is going to go anywhere near denting the rise in cases. Prepare for further measures in january

    pretty stupid to kill your family for a turkey dinner. Fecks sake my old man was away from home for nearly 5 years in the war, not a few months. My ,other saw him once or twice whilst they did mountain training in Scotland and that was it , no choice.
    Because for some families the lockdown is causing more harm than the actual disease. As I said upthread my fathers mental derioration since march is marked. The 10% chance of dying for him would have been a far better bet than what lockdown has done to him. For him christmas would be a lifeline.
    Very sad and hopefully he gets better.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It has a clear exit strategy - vaccinate people. What he's asking for is a promise that the government never change tack to increase restrictions, despite even a competent government not being omnipitent enough to guarantee that.
    I don't think so. He is merely asking for new restrictions imposed on personal liberties to be debated and agreed by parliament.

    As they are, you know, in a democracy.

    Many of these rules are being imposed by people who are not accountable, whose very high income and lives are not affected, and whose science is in dispute by academics of standing.

    The parliamentary debate and scrutiny part is certainly a valid complaint and one which at times parliamentarians have been too supine about, but for one it is not the case they are imposed by those who are not accountable, since Boris and the Cabinet are accountable yet you persistently are pretending some unelected person is doing it, and for two, he is complaining about the lack of exit strategy as he sees it and the nature of the decisions being taken, not merely how they are being taken, so he is definitely also simply criticising the decisions in a way which is unreasonable given the government can have all the plans in the world, and they could be agreed in parliament after debate, and the situation could then change. There's a reason we have a government after all, to respond to things day to day - that doesn't mean Boris doesn't seek to avoid parliament, I agree he does, but it is pretty clear when people want more debate, and when they want control which not reasonable.
    Whitty and Vallance are not accountable, and the decisions they are taking to do not affect their incomes, pensions or careers one jot.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,512
    ping said:

    Scottish border closed

    Who needs a referendum.....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    edited December 2020
    The statement from the "Covid Recovery Group" implies they don't accept that reducing contact reduces the spread of the virus.

    Are these people simply insane?

    Their thinking seems to be along the lines of Trump.

    Maybe some of them are adding some kind of religious aspect into the equation, along the lines of the recent SCOTUS Judgement?

    But whatever it is these people are completely irrational and not fit to be MPs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    eristdoof said:

    This forum is raging against Boris but those doing so are mainly those who are anti brexit or on the right

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this over the next few days


    A quick look suggests that only one person on this forum is raging about the Tier 4 for Christmas, the other negative comments are to do with the lack of consistency coming out of Downing Street.

    There is lots of "Raging against Boris" being reposted from Twitter. But thankfully this forum is not Twitter.
    To be honest I think the reaction is very gentle given his attitude at PMQs a little over 48 hours ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,541

    Positive tests recorded today:

    UK 27k
    NL12k - 49k if scaled up
    CZ 9k - 54k if scaled up

    There will be other countries with other variants.

    I also wonder if Belgium has had a more infectious variant.
    And Sweden? They were doing relatively well until a couple of weeks or so ago.
    Whatever you say about Sweden, they will be in a much stronger position that us when vaccines take effect.

    Their economy is far, far less shattered and broken that ours is.
    Sweden's economy contracted more than its neighbours. Why don't you say that we should copy Denmark?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Scottish schools delayed in return after Christmas - online learning from the 11th and not back in the schools themselves until 18th.
  • eristdoof said:

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
    Mrs PtP is upset for private reasons. Boredom would be my biggest problem but it sounds like we'll be going on an eight hour hike along the Cotswold Way, so that should help. Just hope it doesn't rain.

    Dog will love it, especially if it rains.

    Things really could be a lot worse.
    Sounds great. I hope lots of people discover doing somthing different and relaxing with nature this Christmas.
    I'm just under 5 miles from the Tier 4 boundary. Currently I'm planning to visit friends along with another single friend. The new Christmas Day Only ruling does cause a few problems as I was planning to have a few sherbets but I think I can get away with staying overnight by creating a support bubble with my friends, as I have not done so yet. The other guy can walk home. I could, but it's 4.5 miles, it will be dark and part of it is on unlit footpaths.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,092

    Surely we can’t be going for No Deal in 12 days under these circumstances?

    Not a chance. Not that there was anyway.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer on fire. Controlled anger and contempt.

    Speaking for a nation.

    Has he mentioned unrestricted entry into the UK yet ?

    Or does he still support it.
    Why are you obsessed with the "foreign invader" aspect of the virus?

    Just seems a bit odd to me. It's relevant, sure, but still.
    As you say its relevant.

    And Starmer has completely ignored it ?

    Why is that ? Its been an open goal since March.
    I genuinely don't know. Perhaps he doesn't see it as a priority compared to the things he IS majoring on.

    What do you think the reason is?
    I assume Starmer is some variant of freedom of movement / have to be 'open for business' / globalist sociopath / doesn't want to upset holiday obsessives.

    There are plenty of them throughout the Westminster establishment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,288
    ping said:

    Scottish border closed

    Excellent and measured presentation from Sturgeon, showing how it should be done. Only half the rates up here but no shill shallying , closing things down early regardless of her personal popularity. Great she is closing the border as well as curtailing Christmas meetings.
  • ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    This forum is raging against Boris but those doing so are mainly those who are anti brexit or on the right

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this over the next few days


    A quick look suggests that only one person on this forum is raging about the Tier 4 for Christmas, the other negative comments are to do with the lack of consistency coming out of Downing Street.

    There is lots of "Raging against Boris" being reposted from Twitter. But thankfully this forum is not Twitter.
    There are several questions around Tier 4. For example, how long does it last? What happens when schools go back? Will it be extended to other areas, and if so, on what basis?

    But truthfully, the key issue is he said he would not ‘cancel Christmas,’ made a party political point out of it, and has now had to eat his words - which shows he just doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing.
    Did he say he would not cancel Christmas technically?

    Or did he just say he did not want to?

    Today he is saying that although he doesn't want to, because of the news he got yesterday from Nervtag he has to.
This discussion has been closed.