Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The other side of the bet. The ethics of political gambling. – politicalbetting.com

178101213

Comments

  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    DougSeal said:

    So given the risk profile was given, at the latest, to the Cabinet on Monday, why was Johnson giving it the bid "I am" to Starmer on Wednesday? Why was Johnson travelling up North from London to an Openreach site yesterday? Because campaigning is all he knows how to do. He can't govern.

    He just said NERVTAG reported in the last 24 hours or so.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Would those letters be from Tory MPs in the commuter belt of the South East of England representing Tier 2 constituencies, furious that their area wasn't moved down to Tier 1 earlier this week? Or letters from Tory MPs in the commuter belt of the South East of England representing Tier 2 constituencies, furious that they haven't now been moved up to at least Tier 3?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Sky

    60% of new infections are due to this strain in tier 4

    Looks like it will be dominant strain in v short time.
    Almost certainly.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223
    edited December 2020
    Starmer on fire. Controlled anger and contempt.

    Speaking for a nation.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    C'mon this is shambolic.

    Rather have you in charge. Or your doppelganger - Julius Caesar.
    Not sure his experience with the sacred disease would help us much now. Had I been recalled from my plough for a brief spell as Dictator, I would probably have cancelled the Saturnalia well in advance, run stronger restrictions all year round, and told any querulous mobs to report to the Magister Equitum for decimation.

    But Boris isn't a dictator, and has to balance a hundred competing interests all shouting in his ear at once. Such is democracy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    edited December 2020
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    This will be see the biggest anger amongst the Tory base since May cancelled Brexit last year

    Will it? I know you have a great instinct for Tory opinion, but greater restrictions remain resolutely and surprisingly popular.
    About a third of the population supported relaxing the current restrictions over Christmas, that is a lot of voters.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1338876584556720133?s=20

    The rest only wanted current rules maintained, these rules go beyond current Tier 3 rules and create a new Tier 4 and effectively cancel Christmas altogether in London and the South East.
    Oh please: that was 4 days ago, when Mr Johnson was giving us wall to wall ****ing Santa impersonations and slagging off SKS as Scrooge, the Grinch and Protector Cromwell combined. You'd get a very different result now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355

    moonshine said:

    Carnyx said:

    Untrue or unridiculous?
    It is sensible
    Sorry if I seem rude but I am fed up with this view and I consider it to be crassly selfish. The lives of young people have been fucked enough in the last 12 years to ensure asset prices and pension incomes for baby boomers and above are protected. If you have such a poor understanding of risk that you remain scared of your own shadow then lock yourself up by all means. But don’t you dare criminalise me for exhibiting entirely sensible risk based behaviour, or expect me to celebrate any further interruption to my kids lives so you can feel less scared at night.
    The over 80s seem to think they have perfect right to ten more golden years, whatever the sacrifices the young have to make and more to the point future generations have to make, struggling under the yoke of enormous debts at every stage of their lives.
    This after they have enjoyed far more life than any generation, ever, already?

    Are those years being bought at far, far too high a price? I would argue the answer is a resounding yes.

    Its the modern equivalent of sending the young people over the top at the Somme.

    Anthem for Doomed Youth 2, the sequel.
    Away you halfwit, what a struggle for them sitting with their computers etc. Whining about people who struggled and worked hard all their lives for a fraction of what people get today and because they saved and get a miserable pension greedy selfish clowns like you cry like a big baby about how tough it is. Go and get a life and a job.
  • I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
  • kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    This will be see the biggest anger amongst the Tory base since May cancelled Brexit last year

    Will it? I know you have a great instinct for Tory opinion, but greater restrictions remain resolutely and surprisingly popular.
    From observation people who think more restrictions are a good thing often seem to also think they have good reasons why the restrictions shouldn't be applying to them. We heard many of those reasons at times here such as "but I am sensible and avoid human contact when doing x unlike those that need restricting". It's sort of like surveys which report people are in favour of higher taxes where the unspoken part of the agreement is "for other people richer than me"
    I favour higher taxes on people like me. That's why I would leave the unspoken part unspoken.
    Head down to your local tax office with your cheque book and you will be able to pay as much extra as you wish.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
  • Jeremy Hunt would be a far better PM than Johnson.

    Philip your love in with everything Johnson does or says is fine but don’t come in here and act like you’re impartial.

    I'm not impartial. But I do think for myself.

    I've criticised excluding houses of worship from Tier 4 restrictions calling it "madness" and "insanity".

    But you've been calling for a change and a lockdown, now he's just done what you've asked for and do you say "I'm glad it's changed"? Of course you don't.
  • Jeremy Hunt would be a far better PM than Johnson.

    Philip your love in with everything Johnson does or says is fine but don’t come in here and act like you’re impartial.

    The same Jeremy Hunt who last week was blathering about booking holidays ?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    ydoethur said:

    Lock at what boris said to his MPs before they approved the Tier system.

    How can they ever trust anything he says again?

    Why were they ever stupid enough to trust him in the first place?
    Because they are stupid.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Sports fixtures screwed, presumably.

    I don't see why. This is November style restrictions not March style.

    Professional sport was allowed in November.

    Tier 5 presumably would be March style and would close sport.
    I thought travel was banned though?
    I think that was the point, rather than banning sport per se.
    Travel for work isn't banned. Professional athletes going to a fixture is for work.
    Yep. Fair enough. Good point.
  • Jeremy Hunt would be a far better PM than Johnson.

    Philip your love in with everything Johnson does or says is fine but don’t come in here and act like you’re impartial.

    I'm not impartial. But I do think for myself.

    I've criticised excluding houses of worship from Tier 4 restrictions calling it "madness" and "insanity".

    But you've been calling for a change and a lockdown, now he's just done what you've asked for and do you say "I'm glad it's changed"? Of course you don't.
    I didn’t know he’d locked down England?

    You thinking for yourself? Hahahaha wait for the Tory PR line and follow that is what you do. You’re like a parody at this point.

    I’ll be ignoring you whilst you’re in this state.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    5% of cases in Yorkshire are the mutation. We're all going to be in Tier 4 soon enough.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
    My guess is that the figures refer to England only (makes sense as S,W and NI have different approaches).
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited December 2020

    DougSeal said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    I don't think anyone is saying that. But given that it was detected in September and it was being flagged in November I think questions can be asked as to his actions since.
    CMO stated it was only later this week they discovered just how serious this new strain is and hence their advice today
    Yes. They kept saying this was information they got yesterday.
    Sorry to be a stuck record but look at the chronology. Remember on Wednesday when everyone on here was saying how wonderful Johnson was against Starmer at PMQs.

    "How common is it?
    As of 13 December (my emphasis), 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

    Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December ( my emphasis) that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

    Does this variant spread more quickly?
    Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December (my emphasis) that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise."


    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

    So, on 14 December the Cabinet were aware, and one of its members told Parliament, that the new varient could have been causing the rises in SE England. Yet two days later, on 16 December, Johnson was pithily rubbishing Starmer for pointing out that there was a worrying rise in cases in the SE. Johnson knew at that point there was a possibility, even if it had not been confirmed, yet his messaging did not change one iota.

    He's a campaigner. A debater. A writer. A pitchman. But he can't govern. And we are all going to be much worse off as a result.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Boris Johnson. Worse PM than May

    You'd say that about any Tory PM.
    Major is the last one I can remember being an improvement
  • Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million

    England population 55,977,178 people in 2018
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/ukpopulationpyramidinteractive/2020-01-08
  • Jeremy Hunt would be a far better PM than Johnson.

    Philip your love in with everything Johnson does or says is fine but don’t come in here and act like you’re impartial.

    I'm not impartial. But I do think for myself.

    I've criticised excluding houses of worship from Tier 4 restrictions calling it "madness" and "insanity".

    But you've been calling for a change and a lockdown, now he's just done what you've asked for and do you say "I'm glad it's changed"? Of course you don't.
    I didn’t know he’d locked down England?

    You thinking for yourself? Hahahaha wait for the Tory PR line and follow that is what you do. You’re like a parody at this point.

    I’ll be ignoring you whilst you’re in this state.
    To be fair although there are somethings I disagree with about Philip's positions, I certainly don't think he tows the party line. He is no HYUFD
  • Positive cases still 'only' 12.8% in London for w/e 14/12/20:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=region&areaName=London

    which is pretty low compared to some parts of the western world.
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55379237

    Good but they should not be easing at all.

    Also they must not open up too early again. Drakeford at least outdoing Johnson again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
    I think that is England.
  • Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
    They are for England only I believe
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    How are the government going to stop people travelling if they really want to.

    road blocks?

    You are just being ridiculous. It has always been the case that pretty much all Covid restrictions are, apart from egregious examples, unenforcable. If people went out jogging three times a day in Wales back in April and May, how many were really going to get caught?

    Obviously they would not expect mass arrests, as there aren't the resources to do that, it's about seeking voluntary compliance. There will probably be less compliance with Xmas rules than others, but it remains simple fact that most people have been complying with the rules and a great many will continue to do so.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355
    ydoethur said:

    Lock at what boris said to his MPs before they approved the Tier system.

    How can they ever trust anything he says again?

    Why were they ever stupid enough to trust him in the first place?
    you actually need to ask that given they could not raise a brain if they all clubbed together.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
    Which is the population of England.
  • kinabalu said:

    Starmer on fire. Controlled anger and contempt.

    Speaking for a nation.

    Has he mentioned unrestricted entry into the UK yet ?

    Or does he still support it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    I detest the talk of Christmas being cancelled, as though Boris is the incarnation of Oliver Cromwell. Restrictions that, by and large, were already in place, are now remaining in place or being tightened in some places. It's an extension of the curtailment of liberties that the public have been mostly in support of, not the sudden imposition of it without any build up or justification.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223

    kinabalu said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    C'mon this is shambolic.

    Rather have you in charge. Or your doppelganger - Julius Caesar.
    Not sure his experience with the sacred disease would help us much now. Had I been recalled from my plough for a brief spell as Dictator, I would probably have cancelled the Saturnalia well in advance, run stronger restrictions all year round, and told any querulous mobs to report to the Magister Equitum for decimation.

    But Boris isn't a dictator, and has to balance a hundred competing interests all shouting in his ear at once. Such is democracy.
    It's a tough job, yes, which is why it needs a special mix of qualities to do it well. He doesn't seem to have them. I think we've drawn the short straw here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    Scott_xP said:
    Not that we should welcome the new strain, but without it as a justification which does not blame the public or the government (no one can be blamed for a new strain appearing), I wonder if Boris would have taken this action, no matter the cost.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Scott_xP said:
    And the media's response to Kent going into Tier 3?

    Why is all of Kent in Tier 3? It's not fair!

    The government has not done a good job. But the media? They are on a different level of badness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55379237

    Good but they should not be easing at all.

    Also they must not open up too early again. Drakeford at least outdoing Johnson again.

    Again? When did he outdo Boris before?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    5% of cases in Yorkshire are the mutation. We're all going to be in Tier 4 soon enough.

    kle4 said:

    How are the government going to stop people travelling if they really want to.

    road blocks?

    You are just being ridiculous. It has always been the case that pretty much all Covid restrictions are, apart from egregious examples, unenforcable. If people went out jogging three times a day in Wales back in April and May, how many were really going to get caught?

    Obviously they would not expect mass arrests, as there aren't the resources to do that, it's about seeking voluntary compliance. There will probably be less compliance with Xmas rules than others, but it remains simple fact that most people have been complying with the rules and a great many will continue to do so.
    Surely compliance is going to be greater if you give people the facts and trust them to make their own decisions rather than this stupid draconian stuff that hammers the economy so badly?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    People have already made plans for christmas. Its easier not to make a plan than cancel plans so I think a high percentage are going to be saying sod it and still going ahead frankly so I doubt this tightening is going to go anywhere near denting the rise in cases. Prepare for further measures in january
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    HYUFD said:
    Not sure tack was changed quickly. The government should be given an amount of leeway in taking extraordinary decisions in extraordinary times, but there are limits to that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The outbreak seems to be centred on Bluewater.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    This will be see the biggest anger amongst the Tory base since May cancelled Brexit last year

    Will it? I know you have a great instinct for Tory opinion, but greater restrictions remain resolutely and surprisingly popular.
    From observation people who think more restrictions are a good thing often seem to also think they have good reasons why the restrictions shouldn't be applying to them. We heard many of those reasons at times here such as "but I am sensible and avoid human contact when doing x unlike those that need restricting". It's sort of like surveys which report people are in favour of higher taxes where the unspoken part of the agreement is "for other people richer than me"
    I favour higher taxes on people like me. That's why I would leave the unspoken part unspoken.
    Head down to your local tax office with your cheque book and you will be able to pay as much extra as you wish.
    Nope. I support higher taxes for people like me. I'd vote for that. I don't have to pretend we already have them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    And the media's response to Kent going into Tier 3?

    Why is all of Kent in Tier 3? It's not fair!

    The government has not done a good job. But the media? They are on a different level of badness.
    You do remember what Messrs Johnson and Gove used to do in what in most normal people's cases would be the real world?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Drakeford is singlehandedly responsible for the entire Christmas lockdown fiasco across the whole of the UK. No smiley face!
  • Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
    England's population is err, about 56 million........
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well its obvious we can't trust any of their figures they seem to have mislaid around 11 million people down the back of the sofa as those figures only add up to around 56 million
    Er - England?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Jonathan said:

    The outbreak seems to be centred on Bluewater.

    It began in Swale and locally fingers have pointed at the local prisons on Sheppy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:
    He hasn’t. That’s the whole problem. This decision was inevitable the moment schools were ordered to stay open to the 18th, so it should have been taken months ago.
  • I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh bejesus, are we still not restricting air travel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Jonathan said:

    The outbreak seems to be centred on Bluewater.

    24 hr virus production !

    Bluewater extends 24 hour shopping hours today at select shops including Primark and JD Sports

    The shopping centre will have extended opening hours in shops such as Primark, JD Sports and Footsylum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    5% of cases in Yorkshire are the mutation. We're all going to be in Tier 4 soon enough.

    kle4 said:

    How are the government going to stop people travelling if they really want to.

    road blocks?

    You are just being ridiculous. It has always been the case that pretty much all Covid restrictions are, apart from egregious examples, unenforcable. If people went out jogging three times a day in Wales back in April and May, how many were really going to get caught?

    Obviously they would not expect mass arrests, as there aren't the resources to do that, it's about seeking voluntary compliance. There will probably be less compliance with Xmas rules than others, but it remains simple fact that most people have been complying with the rules and a great many will continue to do so.
    Surely compliance is going to be greater if you give people the facts and trust them to make their own decisions rather than this stupid draconian stuff that hammers the economy so badly?
    I don't see why that would be the case. Lots of facts are given and the response would always be to dispute them or say it is not enough, so that is simply a pretence, like people demanding more consultation before a planning decision, no matter how much is done. No amount of facts would be enough.

    As for trusting people to make their own decisions, given that it is voluntary compliance, in effect, that is what happens, only the rules indicate what the government at least considers to be sensible.

    The thrust of your comment seems to be that people would do the sensible thing, but won't if they are told they must do it. But if people refuse to do a sensible thing they would do only because they are told they must, then they are demonstrably not sensible in the first place.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    I don't think anyone is saying that. But given that it was detected in September and it was being flagged in November I think questions can be asked as to his actions since.
    CMO stated it was only later this week they discovered just how serious this new strain is and hence their advice today
    Yes. They kept saying this was information they got yesterday.
    Sorry to be a stuck record but look at the chronology. Remember on Wednesday when everyone on here was saying how wonderful Johnson was against Starmer at PMQs.

    "How common is it?
    As of 13 December (my emphasis), 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

    Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December ( my emphasis) that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

    Does this variant spread more quickly?
    Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December (my emphasis) that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise."


    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

    So, on 14 December the Cabinet were aware, and one of its members told Parliament, that the new varient could have been causing the rises in SE England. Yet two days later, on 16 December, Johnson was pithily rubbishing Starmer for pointing out that there was a worrying rise in cases in the SE. Johnson knew at that point there was a possibility, even if it had not been confirmed, yet his messaging did not change one iota.

    He's a campaigner. A debater. A writer. A pitchman. But he can't govern. And we are all going to be much worse off as a result.
    We're all going to be much worse off because he made the announcement today - after the scientific investigation into the new strain's increased rate of transmission had concluded - rather than a few days ago, when it was still ongoing? Really? The practical difference is minimal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....
  • https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1340344483754479616

    And PB Tories will still call Keir Captain Hindsight.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    I don't think anyone is saying that. But given that it was detected in September and it was being flagged in November I think questions can be asked as to his actions since.
    CMO stated it was only later this week they discovered just how serious this new strain is and hence their advice today
    Yes. They kept saying this was information they got yesterday.
    Sorry to be a stuck record but look at the chronology. Remember on Wednesday when everyone on here was saying how wonderful Johnson was against Starmer at PMQs.

    "How common is it?
    As of 13 December (my emphasis), 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

    Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December ( my emphasis) that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

    Does this variant spread more quickly?
    Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December (my emphasis) that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise."


    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

    So, on 14 December the Cabinet were aware, and one of its members told Parliament, that the new varient could have been causing the rises in SE England. Yet two days later, on 16 December, Johnson was pithily rubbishing Starmer for pointing out that there was a worrying rise in cases in the SE. Johnson knew at that point there was a possibility, even if it had not been confirmed, yet his messaging did not change one iota.

    He's a campaigner. A debater. A writer. A pitchman. But he can't govern. And we are all going to be much worse off as a result.
    We're all going to be much worse off because he made the announcement today - after the scientific investigation into the new strain's increased rate of transmission had concluded - rather than a few days ago, when it was still ongoing? Really? The practical difference is minimal.
    Not with exponential growth. That's the trouble.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
    Good for you. I am seriously worried about my 80yr old in laws who seem to be developing serious depression through this lockdown. Christmas was a ray of light, now gone. Some things are as serious as CV19.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    5% of cases in Yorkshire are the mutation. We're all going to be in Tier 4 soon enough.

    kle4 said:

    How are the government going to stop people travelling if they really want to.

    road blocks?

    You are just being ridiculous. It has always been the case that pretty much all Covid restrictions are, apart from egregious examples, unenforcable. If people went out jogging three times a day in Wales back in April and May, how many were really going to get caught?

    Obviously they would not expect mass arrests, as there aren't the resources to do that, it's about seeking voluntary compliance. There will probably be less compliance with Xmas rules than others, but it remains simple fact that most people have been complying with the rules and a great many will continue to do so.
    Surely compliance is going to be greater if you give people the facts and trust them to make their own decisions rather than this stupid draconian stuff that hammers the economy so badly?
    What’s the point of giving facts to people like you? You just ignore them.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Scott_xP said:
    Would those letters be from Tory MPs in the commuter belt of the South East of England representing Tier 2 constituencies, furious that their area wasn't moved down to Tier 1 earlier this week? Or letters from Tory MPs in the commuter belt of the South East of England representing Tier 2 constituencies, furious that they haven't now been moved up to at least Tier 3?
    Johnson's problem is that by trying to please all quarters of his party he has managed to upset all of them.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not that we should welcome the new strain, but without it as a justification which does not blame the public or the government (no one can be blamed for a new strain appearing), I wonder if Boris would have taken this action, no matter the cost.
    The right outcome which should have been set in stone ten weeks ago
  • Jeremy Hunt would be a far better PM than Johnson.

    Philip your love in with everything Johnson does or says is fine but don’t come in here and act like you’re impartial.

    I'm not impartial. But I do think for myself.

    I've criticised excluding houses of worship from Tier 4 restrictions calling it "madness" and "insanity".

    But you've been calling for a change and a lockdown, now he's just done what you've asked for and do you say "I'm glad it's changed"? Of course you don't.
    I didn’t know he’d locked down England?

    You thinking for yourself? Hahahaha wait for the Tory PR line and follow that is what you do. You’re like a parody at this point.

    I’ll be ignoring you whilst you’re in this state.
    I don't follow a Tory PR line.

    What Tory PR line is it to be saying that the worship exemption is insanity literally while the PM is still talking?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    On this, I will defend the government to a degree. For one, as has been repeatedly noted there is no way to enforce these things but for voluntary compliance, so a difference of a few hours I am skeptical makes any difference - someone inclined to follow the rules in the first place would violate the spirit in that way? Some, sure, but I'd think most who would would not in any case have listened to rules. Additionally, the government gets hammered either way - bring in rules with no warning, and people don't know what they are and how dare they, and give any sort of delay at all and how dare they, it means people have time to work around them.
  • Just updating my ignore list.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer on fire. Controlled anger and contempt.

    Speaking for a nation.

    Has he mentioned unrestricted entry into the UK yet ?

    Or does he still support it.
    Why are you obsessed with the "foreign invader" aspect of the virus?

    Just seems a bit odd to me. It's relevant, sure, but still.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    This will be see the biggest anger amongst the Tory base since May cancelled Brexit last year

    Will it? I know you have a great instinct for Tory opinion, but greater restrictions remain resolutely and surprisingly popular.
    From observation people who think more restrictions are a good thing often seem to also think they have good reasons why the restrictions shouldn't be applying to them. We heard many of those reasons at times here such as "but I am sensible and avoid human contact when doing x unlike those that need restricting". It's sort of like surveys which report people are in favour of higher taxes where the unspoken part of the agreement is "for other people richer than me"
    I favour higher taxes on people like me. That's why I would leave the unspoken part unspoken.
    Head down to your local tax office with your cheque book and you will be able to pay as much extra as you wish.
    Nope. I support higher taxes for people like me. I'd vote for that. I don't have to pretend we already have them.
    Its easy to support things you know aren't likely to happen.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Is Boris missing Cummings?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited December 2020
    One thing to consider. The hope was vaccinate the oldies and hopefully by Easter we might be able to back to more normality by Easter / early summer.

    If this variant adds 0.4 to the R number, restrictions are going to be in place until everybody is vaccinated arent they. It is too transmissible, that means Tier 1-2 aren't going to do jack shit against it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not that we should welcome the new strain, but without it as a justification which does not blame the public or the government (no one can be blamed for a new strain appearing), I wonder if Boris would have taken this action, no matter the cost.
    The right outcome which should have been set in stone ten weeks ago
    I think it would have been pretty easy to have a Christmas bubble if they had wanted one, as has been noted on here many times in terms of just havingt been in lockdown until, say, now. But the point was whatever the right outcome is or should be - and clearly not everyone will agree - I don't know that Boris would have made this decision without something to at least provide an excuse why it is not his fault, or the public's fault.
  • nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not that we should welcome the new strain, but without it as a justification which does not blame the public or the government (no one can be blamed for a new strain appearing), I wonder if Boris would have taken this action, no matter the cost.
    The right outcome which should have been set in stone ten weeks ago
    Why? Ten weeks ago we didn't know how the virus would progress. Plenty of other countries have just announced Christmas restrictions
  • Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    I expect to see photos in papers tomorrow of traffic jams for exits out of London.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    Jonathan said:

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
    Good for you. I am seriously worried about my 80yr old in laws who seem to be developing serious depression through this lockdown. Christmas was a ray of light, now gone. Some things are as serious as CV19.
    Likewise my father who is past 80, his whole life was out and about and since march seems to be on a slide into forgetfulness and alzheimers with the lack of stimulation. Sadly lockdown ending is unlikely to reverse that from what I have been told. Would probably have been better for him personally to take his chances.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not sure tack was changed quickly. The government should be given an amount of leeway in taking extraordinary decisions in extraordinary times, but there are limits to that.
    Within 24 hours after Nervtag reported on the new variant.
  • Alistair said:

    Oh bejesus, are we still not restricting air travel.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1340228304679395329
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355
    Pagan2 said:

    People have already made plans for christmas. Its easier not to make a plan than cancel plans so I think a high percentage are going to be saying sod it and still going ahead frankly so I doubt this tightening is going to go anywhere near denting the rise in cases. Prepare for further measures in january

    pretty stupid to kill your family for a turkey dinner. Fecks sake my old man was away from home for nearly 5 years in the war, not a few months. My ,other saw him once or twice whilst they did mountain training in Scotland and that was it , no choice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    DougSeal said:

    Johnson's problem is that by trying to please all quarters of his party he has managed to upset all of them.

    Is it possible he is just a clueless clown with no serious management skills at all?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603

    https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1340344483754479616

    And PB Tories will still call Keir Captain Hindsight.

    Ahem. "Circuit breaker"?

    About the only people who have called this right in our neighbourhood are Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not sure tack was changed quickly. The government should be given an amount of leeway in taking extraordinary decisions in extraordinary times, but there are limits to that.
    Within 24 hours after Nervtag reported on the new variant.
    If that is the only reason people accept the rules should have been changed, then yes it was quick, however plenty have been suggesting the evidence of case rises etc was such that things should have been changed even if the new variant did not exist.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355
    Jonathan said:

    Is Boris missing Cummings?

    Nutnuts is certainly worse than Cummings for sure.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,593
    I wish this epidemic had happened 10 or 15 years ago because Im sure we would have responded to it in a better way. Not having so many people on Twitter would have helped as well.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    How have we not closed the border and shut down all incoming and outgoing flights until this mutant covid strain has been dealt with?!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    No doubt Boris ordered the creation of this new R+0.4 strain personally, the rotter. Has he no shame?

    I don't think anyone is saying that. But given that it was detected in September and it was being flagged in November I think questions can be asked as to his actions since.
    CMO stated it was only later this week they discovered just how serious this new strain is and hence their advice today
    Yes. They kept saying this was information they got yesterday.
    Sorry to be a stuck record but look at the chronology. Remember on Wednesday when everyone on here was saying how wonderful Johnson was against Starmer at PMQs.

    "How common is it?
    As of 13 December (my emphasis), 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

    Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December ( my emphasis) that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

    Does this variant spread more quickly?
    Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December (my emphasis) that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise."


    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

    So, on 14 December the Cabinet were aware, and one of its members told Parliament, that the new varient could have been causing the rises in SE England. Yet two days later, on 16 December, Johnson was pithily rubbishing Starmer for pointing out that there was a worrying rise in cases in the SE. Johnson knew at that point there was a possibility, even if it had not been confirmed, yet his messaging did not change one iota.

    He's a campaigner. A debater. A writer. A pitchman. But he can't govern. And we are all going to be much worse off as a result.
    We're all going to be much worse off because he made the announcement today - after the scientific investigation into the new strain's increased rate of transmission had concluded - rather than a few days ago, when it was still ongoing? Really? The practical difference is minimal.
    Preliminary results by last Monday, as Hancock told Parliament, suggested that the new varient may be behind the increase. Yet on Wednesday Johnson was acting like nothing had changed. Why do you think the practical differnence is minimal? The Government knew by Monday at the latest that this new varient may have been associated with increased levels of transmission but did nothing. They wasted a whole week. There are roughtly 500 deaths a day from this virus. How many lives would erring on the side of caution and bringing this in a week ago based on preiminary indications have saved?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited December 2020
    MaxPB said:

    How have we not closed the border and shut down all incoming and outgoing flights until this mutant covid strain has been dealt with?!

    It is total madness and completely unexplainable. 9 months, still no airport testing for all, no forced isolation at airports, etc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,593
    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    The outbreak seems to be centred on Bluewater.

    It began in Swale and locally fingers have pointed at the local prisons on Sheppy.
    I thought prisons were supposed to be secure environments...
  • 5% of cases in Yorkshire are the mutation. We're all going to be in Tier 4 soon enough.

    Indeed. By Jan 2nd I expect.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Jonathan said:

    Is Boris missing Cummings?

    In need of a superforecaster...

    Or Keir Starmer apparently
  • This forum is raging against Boris but those doing so are mainly those who are anti brexit or on the right

    It will be interesting to see the polling on this over the next few days
  • Again, the delay in implementing. Why midnight? 7 and a half hours is plenty of time to load up the car, flee London - and bring the new variant down to Devon for Christmas....

    Is there anything to stop them doing it tomorrow or Monday etc ?

    Are you suggesting they should use the army to block off the M25 ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    Jonathan said:

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    I see we're getting unending pasting from the shrillest depths of twatter.

    And rather less of anyone making sensible suggestions.

    It looks to me that they've taken the sensible steps.

    My Xmas buggered but wtf. Death is worse. We'll have Xmas in March or whenever.
    Indeed.

    I'd don't know whom I'm more sick of - those whining 'Christmas is cancelled' or those assuming that everyone is distraught.

    I'm going to enjoy a nice quiet Christmas and the time off work.
    Good for you. I am seriously worried about my 80yr old in laws who seem to be developing serious depression through this lockdown. Christmas was a ray of light, now gone. Some things are as serious as CV19.
    The potential mental costs cannot be entirely disregarded. As a pretty antisocial person even I have felt the strain of this utter crapfest of a year, and many will have had it far worse. Nevertheless, the 'Christmas is cancelled' emphasis places a bit too much focus on the byproduct of a public health decision for my liking, as though its cancellation (which is not even a cancellation of the event itself) is the goal somehow, or if automatically peoples' desire for that event should override other concerns.
  • Just updating my ignore list.

    If you want an echo chamber then Twitter is more easily set up for that than PB.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited December 2020

    5% of cases in Yorkshire are the mutation. We're all going to be in Tier 4 soon enough.

    Indeed. By Jan 2nd I expect.
    Everybody will be during some point in Jan / Feb, except Cornwall / Devon.
This discussion has been closed.