The latest polling on measures to control the virus and what Contrarian Hartley-Brewer is saying – p

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

EU’s Brexit playbook going according to plan. String everything out until the last possible moment, then a little bit longer, using friendly British media to hype up the disruption to put pressure on the UK government to roll over on key red line items like future governance and state aid.

https://twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/1333662702460395520?s=20

I too suspect the risks of "No Deal" are much higher than anticipated. To get a deal will require bold political leadership on both sides - not much evidence on either.

kamski said:

felix said:

kamski said:

felix said:

kamski said:

felix said:

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1333493934023192579

Hasn’t the WA protected the rights of U.K. citizens resident in France?

It’s visitors who have been complaining about the “90 days in 180” today.

Wonder when we’ll reciprocate?

Well it was a characteristically incoherent tweet by our PM whose use of English is slapdash, but UK residents aren't citizens resident outside the UK, so it's unclear quite what he meant. Either way it has turned out to be garbage on three counts: 1. The rights of UK citizens resident in the UK have certainly been adversely affected, for example they can't spend more than 90 days in the EU country in a year without a visa, and can't retire there. 2. UK citizens resident in the EU have been affected in multiple ways, for example in freedom to move to other EU countries and on healthcare. And 3. The Vienna Convention is 100% irrelevant to the matter irrespective of anything else.

1 It’s 90 days in any 180 - so could be up to 180 days in a year.
2 Americans can retire to France, why wouldn’t UK citizens be able to?
https://internationalliving.com/countries/france/retire/

At the moment you just need a passport to get you there. From your link;



A passport, signed and valid for three months after the last day of stay
One application forms, signed and legibly filled out
One passport-size photo glued/stapled to the form
A current passport
Proof of means of income
Proof of medical insurance
Proof of accommodation in France
Proof of legal status in North America (copy of green card, etc.)
Letter promising not to engage in employment in France
Marriage certificate, if applicable
Processing fees
An e-ticket or reservation record showing date of departure to France
One long-term residence form, which must be completed, dated, signed, and notarized

Most of that list is needed now if you want to reside in a EU country.

Can't comment on France, nor specifically about retiring, but having officially resided in 3 EU countries, I can confirm that most of that list is not needed to reside in Italy, Greece or Germany for people from other EU countries.

Also, Johnson's original statement about the Vienna Treaty was just another barefaced lie from the shameless liar.

I was referring to full-time residency.

so was I

EU Citizens Obtaining Residency in Italy

According to the Polizia di Stato, "Union citizens have the right of residence in Italy for a period of longer than three months if they are workers or self-employed persons in Italy; have sufficient resources for themselves and their family members not to become a burden on the social assistance system during their period of residence and have comprehensive sickness insurance cover, or any other equivalent means; are enrolled at a private or public establishment for the purpose of following a course of study, including vocational training and have sufficient resources for themselves and their family members not to become a burden on the social assistance system and a comprehensive sickness insurance cover; are family members accompanying or joining a Union citizen who has the right to reside in Italy for more than three months."

Obtaining a Residence Permit

"Union citizens or their family members, depending on the length of their stay, can report their presence to a police office, filling out the relevant form (pdf 44 Kb). If they decide not to report their presence, they will be deemed to stay in Italy for a period exceeding three months, unless proven otherwise. Hence, EU citizens who intend to stay for less than three months are not subject to the obligation of reporting their presence or to any other formalities," states the Polizia di Stato. However, if you plan to apply for permanent residence, you should report your presence and obtain the Residence Permit so that you have an official document proving how long you have been in Italy.
Registering with the Anagrafe

EU citizens who wish to stay in Italy for a period exceeding three months are only required to register with the local Anagrafe (Register Office) (pdf 19 Kb)," as stated by the Polizia di Stato. Registrants will receive a receipt certifying that they have applied for registration to Anagrafe. You will receive the attestato d’iscrizione anagrafica or Registration Certificate, which replaces the residence permit obtained at the police office.
Obtaining Permanent Residency

My experience in Italy:

I needed my passport.
I needed to fill out a form.
I needed passport size photos.
They asked me for evidence of medical insurance, which I didn't yet have, so I argued with the guy in the office for a bit about it and he eventually shrugged his shoulders and gave me my residency permit.

I make that not "most" of the things on the list.

IshmaelZ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

EU’s Brexit playbook going according to plan. String everything out until the last possible moment, then a little bit longer, using friendly British media to hype up the disruption to put pressure on the UK government to roll over on key red line items like future governance and state aid.

ttps://twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/1333662702460395520?s=20

I too suspect the risks of "No Deal" are much higher than anticipated. To get a deal will require bold political leadership on both sides - not much evidence on either.

I think the EU side now sees no-deal as a positive, with the disruption being good PR for not leaving, and the expectation that the UK government will come back and sign up to anything after the ports get clogged in January.

I think the UK side sees no-deal as sub-optimal but manageable, with January’s disruption worked around in a few weeks and more future freedom of manoeuvre as a result.

Call the EU's bluff and get through the disruption. On 1/1/21 they have zero fish quota whatsoever, zero influence on our laws, zero level playing field. We hold all the cards.

Nothing left but trolling, is there?

Sandpit said:

kjh said:

Sandpit said:

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

You can back Bottas and Verstappen at 5.5 and 6 on Ladbrokes to win. And should:
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1333671286296489984

Whoa, that’s surprising news. He spent the whole summer until a week ago, living out of his big camper van with only his trainer for company. Genuinely the last person I thought would get it, in sharp contrast to many other sportsmen.

He’s not missed a single race since his debut in 2007, which I think is yet another record for concecutive race starts. Never been sick or injured. Huge opportunity for someone, Vandoorne or perhaps George Russell.

Also a great opportunity for Pietro Fittipaldi, who will make his F1 debut replacing the injured Romain Grosjean in the Haas this weekend.

He's already won the title so a case of C19 is very convenient if he just wants to chill with his awful car collection. Remember he wanted more #metime in his new contract...

Rossi did something similar in MotoGP this year. Riding like shit, season's fucked. Oh look, I've got C19 so I'm going to miss 4 races over the summer, what a botheration.

Not sure that a week or two of enforced quarantine in a Bahrain hotel room, watching the races on TV, is really his idea of #metime?

Fascinating interview with Dr. Ian Roberts yesterday. He’s the F1 senior doctor, and was the guy who pulled Grosjean out of the fire.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=OsZzEEYwTOc

These people are also made of something else, talking in a very dry and matter-of-fact way about the incident. Hope someone nominates him for a bravery medal.

Not that I disagree, but we always seem to forget the little people and focus on the person in charge. The marshals were equally as brave and tend to be volunteers. Same happens in the services and politics and other walks of life. Main awards go to officers and politicians and not the foot soldiers even though they are often more deserving and gain little or nothing from the success whereas their seniors often do.

Oh, very much so. I’m sure that Bahrain will see fit to honour those local track workers involved. As you say, motorsport marshalling is mostly a voluntary activity, these people give up their own time and put themselves in some danger so that we can all go motor racing.

The doctor in this case is British, so I’d like to see him get a British recognition for his service. He wasn’t just the manager, he was the guy who actually went into the fire.

DavidL said:

Interesting piece on why Covid restrictions are not working in the US with a lot of echoes here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/the-three-biases-screwing-up-americas-coronavirus/617192/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20201130&silverid-ref=Njk5MTc2ODk0NTgwS0

Peter_the_Punter said:

kamski said:

Foxy said:

kamski said:

felix said:

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1333493934023192579

Hasn’t the WA protected the rights of U.K. citizens resident in France?

It’s visitors who have been complaining about the “90 days in 180” today.

Wonder when we’ll reciprocate?

Well it was a characteristically incoherent tweet by our PM whose use of English is slapdash, but UK residents aren't citizens resident outside the UK, so it's unclear quite what he meant. Either way it has turned out to be garbage on three counts: 1. The rights of UK citizens resident in the UK have certainly been adversely affected, for example they can't spend more than 90 days in the EU country in a year without a visa, and can't retire there. 2. UK citizens resident in the EU have been affected in multiple ways, for example in freedom to move to other EU countries and on healthcare. And 3. The Vienna Convention is 100% irrelevant to the matter irrespective of anything else.

1 It’s 90 days in any 180 - so could be up to 180 days in a year.
2 Americans can retire to France, why wouldn’t UK citizens be able to?
https://internationalliving.com/countries/france/retire/

At the moment you just need a passport to get you there. From your link;



A passport, signed and valid for three months after the last day of stay
One application forms, signed and legibly filled out
One passport-size photo glued/stapled to the form
A current passport
Proof of means of income
Proof of medical insurance
Proof of accommodation in France
Proof of legal status in North America (copy of green card, etc.)
Letter promising not to engage in employment in France
Marriage certificate, if applicable
Processing fees
An e-ticket or reservation record showing date of departure to France
One long-term residence form, which must be completed, dated, signed, and notarized

Most of that list is needed now if you want to reside in a EU country.

Can't comment on France, nor specifically about retiring, but having officially resided in 3 EU countries, I can confirm that most of that list is not needed to reside in Italy, Greece or Germany for people from other EU countries.

Also, Johnson's original statement about the Vienna Treaty was just another barefaced lie from the shameless liar.

My brothers tales about the Italian system for registering change of car ownership explain why there is nearly no market for used cars in Italy. Buy new and keep until collapse is the system as a result.

Lots of things like that in Italy are difficult, but getting a permesso di soggiorno as an EU citizen is relatively straightforward.

You should read Tobias Jones: The Dark Heart of Italy.

Despite the gloomy title it's a fun book from someone who clearly loves the country. His stories about getting anything from the Post Office are hilarious.

Stocky said:

The end result could be no deal, EU boats still in our waters, and a bunch of very angry UK fishermen (and leavers in general).

Scott_xP said:

Stocky said:

Worth pointing out, though, that many (I`d guess most) people who voted leave would be very pleased if there is no deal whatsoever with the EU.

Only until they find out what that means

EDIT: See the Daily Mail for examples...

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

EU’s Brexit playbook going according to plan. String everything out until the last possible moment, then a little bit longer, using friendly British media to hype up the disruption to put pressure on the UK government to roll over on key red line items like future governance and state aid.

ttps://twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/1333662702460395520?s=20

I too suspect the risks of "No Deal" are much higher than anticipated. To get a deal will require bold political leadership on both sides - not much evidence on either.

I think the EU side now sees no-deal as a positive, with the disruption being good PR for not leaving, and the expectation that the UK government will come back and sign up to anything after the ports get clogged in January.

I think the UK side sees no-deal as sub-optimal but manageable, with January’s disruption worked around in a few weeks and more future freedom of manoeuvre as a result.

Call the EU's bluff and get through the disruption. On 1/1/21 they have zero fish quota whatsoever, zero influence on our laws, zero level playing field. We hold all the cards.

Yes, I agree. Though, as we`ve discussed before, EU boats will then be fishing in our waters illegally - and you want this patrolled by the Navy and enforced whereas I think that that is too antagonistic and will get ugly quickly and in the end the UK won`t have the stomach to enforce it. The end result could be no deal, EU boats still in our waters, and a bunch of very angry UK fishermen (and leavers in general).

Any fishermen who continue to illegally fish in our waters from January would be breaking the law, no ifs or buts.

Navies enforce fishing waters all over the globe. Try getting a fishing boat to fish illegally in Iceland's waters and see how long you get away with it for.

This isn't some HYUFD "send in the jackboots" nonsense, navies are professional and can do this.

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

EU’s Brexit playbook going according to plan. String everything out until the last possible moment, then a little bit longer, using friendly British media to hype up the disruption to put pressure on the UK government to roll over on key red line items like future governance and state aid.

ttps://twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/1333662702460395520?s=20

I too suspect the risks of "No Deal" are much higher than anticipated. To get a deal will require bold political leadership on both sides - not much evidence on either.

I think the EU side now sees no-deal as a positive, with the disruption being good PR for not leaving, and the expectation that the UK government will come back and sign up to anything after the ports get clogged in January.

I think the UK side sees no-deal as sub-optimal but manageable, with January’s disruption worked around in a few weeks and more future freedom of manoeuvre as a result.

Call the EU's bluff and get through the disruption. On 1/1/21 they have zero fish quota whatsoever, zero influence on our laws, zero level playing field. We hold all the cards.

Yes, I agree. Though, as we`ve discussed before, EU boats will then be fishing in our waters illegally - and you want this patrolled by the Navy and enforced whereas I think that that is too antagonistic and will get ugly quickly and in the end the UK won`t have the stomach to enforce it. The end result could be no deal, EU boats still in our waters, and a bunch of very angry UK fishermen (and leavers in general).

Any fishermen who continue to illegally fish in our waters from January would be breaking the law, no ifs or buts.

Navies enforce fishing waters all over the globe. Try getting a fishing boat to fish illegally in Iceland's waters and see how long you get away with it for.

This isn't some HYUFD "send in the jackboots" nonsense, navies are professional and can do this.

And the number of patrol ships we have at any time out in UK waters to actually enforce this is.....

Scott_xP said:

gealbhan said:

Number 10s latest negotiation position on brexit, its 95% agreed, EU won’t collapse it over fish quotas so carry on preparing for the 95% that’s known as agreed.

Except that's BoZo's problem...

He ask if the EU are prepared to collapse the deal over fish, and the answer is they are much more prepared than we are.

So they ask BoZo if he is prepared to collapse the deal over fish.

He can only say no...

Philip_Thompson said:

IshmaelZ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

EU’s Brexit playbook going according to plan. String everything out until the last possible moment, then a little bit longer, using friendly British media to hype up the disruption to put pressure on the UK government to roll over on key red line items like future governance and state aid.

ttps://twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/1333662702460395520?s=20

I too suspect the risks of "No Deal" are much higher than anticipated. To get a deal will require bold political leadership on both sides - not much evidence on either.

I think the EU side now sees no-deal as a positive, with the disruption being good PR for not leaving, and the expectation that the UK government will come back and sign up to anything after the ports get clogged in January.

I think the UK side sees no-deal as sub-optimal but manageable, with January’s disruption worked around in a few weeks and more future freedom of manoeuvre as a result.

Call the EU's bluff and get through the disruption. On 1/1/21 they have zero fish quota whatsoever, zero influence on our laws, zero level playing field. We hold all the cards.

Nothing left but trolling, is there?

You can't get over the fact that nobody agrees with your hive mind can you?

Four consecutive election results including a referendum have permitted Brexit, any single one of them going differently would have killed the project, and still you can't comprehend the fact that people disagree with you.

One of us is right, one of us is wrong. The objective truth is that we do not and can not know who is right until it has happened. At the moment it is Shrodinger's Brexit. The cat could be alive or dead post-No Deal but we don't know.

If the EU won't compromise then its time to get on with it and open the box.

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Morning Peeps.

I'm thinking of phoning the Gambling Commission later today to speak to them about Betfair's continuing failure to settle the remaining US Presidential markets. It would helpand save me some time if you could just let me know where we stand on leagal actions, recounts and like.

My belief is that Arizona has now certified. No recount is possible and I believe there are no legal actions outstanding.

Wisconsin has certified too. Not sure if there any legal actions o/s.

Georgia is recounting still? I think think the outcome is expected today. Again, I think no o/s legal actions.

The other States I am not sure about, although I thinlk there is little doubt about the outcomes.

Cheers. Get back to you all later.

Certification is not the end of the matter. There are still legal challenges in play (frivolous and will lose but still) and in 2000 Bush v Gore had Gore won the case then he could have potentially reversed Florida and reversed the projection post-certification. Had he done so he would then have become the "projected" winner prior to the Electoral College voting.

It would take a series of extremely unlikely events for Trump to become projected winner but it is indeed still legally possible.

I don`t think this matters. BF`s rules say "projected".

DavidL said:

eek said:

Arcadia has taken Debenhams down with it.

Yes, without their instore outlets Debenhams was not viable. There is going to be an awful lot of empty space on the High Street and in shopping centres. This was coming anyway but there is no doubt that Covid has greatly accelerated the process.

It seems all too likely that this is going to feed up the chain too. The likes of Intu have been struggling with debt for a while. They are going to have a frightening number of empty units.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Morning Peeps.

I'm thinking of phoning the Gambling Commission later today to speak to them about Betfair's continuing failure to settle the remaining US Presidential markets. It would helpand save me some time if you could just let me know where we stand on leagal actions, recounts and like.

My belief is that Arizona has now certified. No recount is possible and I believe there are no legal actions outstanding.

Wisconsin has certified too. Not sure if there any legal actions o/s.

Georgia is recounting still? I think think the outcome is expected today. Again, I think no o/s legal actions.

The other States I am not sure about, although I thinlk there is little doubt about the outcomes.

Cheers. Get back to you all later.

Certification is not the end of the matter. There are still legal challenges in play (frivolous and will lose but still) and in 2000 Bush v Gore had Gore won the case then he could have potentially reversed Florida and reversed the projection post-certification. Had he done so he would then have become the "projected" winner prior to the Electoral College voting.

It would take a series of extremely unlikely events for Trump to become projected winner but it is indeed still legally possible.

I don`t think this matters. BF`s rules say "projected".

That's the way I see it. Indeed, certification actually takes us well beyond the level of finality that is strictly necessary for settlement of all the outstanding markets.

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

EU’s Brexit playbook going according to plan. String everything out until the last possible moment, then a little bit longer, using friendly British media to hype up the disruption to put pressure on the UK government to roll over on key red line items like future governance and state aid.

ttps://twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/1333662702460395520?s=20

I too suspect the risks of "No Deal" are much higher than anticipated. To get a deal will require bold political leadership on both sides - not much evidence on either.

I think the EU side now sees no-deal as a positive, with the disruption being good PR for not leaving, and the expectation that the UK government will come back and sign up to anything after the ports get clogged in January.

I think the UK side sees no-deal as sub-optimal but manageable, with January’s disruption worked around in a few weeks and more future freedom of manoeuvre as a result.

Call the EU's bluff and get through the disruption. On 1/1/21 they have zero fish quota whatsoever, zero influence on our laws, zero level playing field. We hold all the cards.

Yes, I agree. Though, as we`ve discussed before, EU boats will then be fishing in our waters illegally - and you want this patrolled by the Navy and enforced whereas I think that that is too antagonistic and will get ugly quickly and in the end the UK won`t have the stomach to enforce it. The end result could be no deal, EU boats still in our waters, and a bunch of very angry UK fishermen (and leavers in general).

Any fishermen who continue to illegally fish in our waters from January would be breaking the law, no ifs or buts.

Navies enforce fishing waters all over the globe. Try getting a fishing boat to fish illegally in Iceland's waters and see how long you get away with it for.

This isn't some HYUFD "send in the jackboots" nonsense, navies are professional and can do this.

And the number of patrol ships we have at any time out in UK waters to actually enforce this is.....

Not zero.

Iceland don't have that many patrol ships either, you don't need that many since the punishment for getting caught is quite severe so there is a significant deterrence effect.

gealbhan said:

Number 10s latest negotiation position on brexit, its 95% agreed, EU won’t collapse it over fish quotas so carry on preparing for the 95% that’s known as agreed.

Any sort of FTA signed with EU is going to feel like a national triumph, you can add 8 points to the Tory position in the polls for at least a couple of years, so should do grand in all next years elections (which instance will pile huge pressure on charisma vacuum Starmer and his unreformed party of anti semites)

This is probably the more realistic take than the no deal disaster for Tories PB seems over preoccupied?

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

Arcadia has taken Debenhams down with it.

Yes, without their instore outlets Debenhams was not viable. There is going to be an awful lot of empty space on the High Street and in shopping centres. This was coming anyway but there is no doubt that Covid has greatly accelerated the process.

It seems all too likely that this is going to feed up the chain too. The likes of Intu have been struggling with debt for a while. They are going to have a frightening number of empty units.

There is no recovery for the commercial property market. None. Shopping habits were already increasingly making all but a core of retail outlet untenable, the rapid and permanent switch to online completes the change. Frankly the property owners haven't helped themselves - happy to leave retail outlets shuttered and maintain a paper value rather than accept a more realistic lower rent and lower its value. And now they are basically worthless.

Here in Stockton-on-Tees the council has a plan. It has bought both of the high street shopping malls. The indoor 70s abomination is getting bulldozed and replaced by a riverside park. The semi-open 90s one is getting whats left of retail concentrated in there (there are large empty units where M&S and Debenhams used to be). The high street itself will be focused on independent shops. The reopening of the Globe Theatre next year hopefully brings some non-retail life back to the town centre.

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Morning Peeps.

I'm thinking of phoning the Gambling Commission later today to speak to them about Betfair's continuing failure to settle the remaining US Presidential markets. It would helpand save me some time if you could just let me know where we stand on leagal actions, recounts and like.

My belief is that Arizona has now certified. No recount is possible and I believe there are no legal actions outstanding.

Wisconsin has certified too. Not sure if there any legal actions o/s.

Georgia is recounting still? I think think the outcome is expected today. Again, I think no o/s legal actions.

The other States I am not sure about, although I thinlk there is little doubt about the outcomes.

Cheers. Get back to you all later.

Certification is not the end of the matter. There are still legal challenges in play (frivolous and will lose but still) and in 2000 Bush v Gore had Gore won the case then he could have potentially reversed Florida and reversed the projection post-certification. Had he done so he would then have become the "projected" winner prior to the Electoral College voting.

It would take a series of extremely unlikely events for Trump to become projected winner but it is indeed still legally possible.

I don`t think this matters. BF`s rules say "projected".

That's the way I see it. Indeed, certification actually takes us well beyond the level of finality that is strictly necessary for settlement of all the outstanding markets.

Why? What happens if the courts reverse certification?

What happened in 2000 Bush v Gore? Did the bookies all settle prior to the courts settling?

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IshmaelZ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

EU’s Brexit playbook going according to plan. String everything out until the last possible moment, then a little bit longer, using friendly British media to hype up the disruption to put pressure on the UK government to roll over on key red line items like future governance and state aid.

ttps://twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/1333662702460395520?s=20

I too suspect the risks of "No Deal" are much higher than anticipated. To get a deal will require bold political leadership on both sides - not much evidence on either.

I think the EU side now sees no-deal as a positive, with the disruption being good PR for not leaving, and the expectation that the UK government will come back and sign up to anything after the ports get clogged in January.

I think the UK side sees no-deal as sub-optimal but manageable, with January’s disruption worked around in a few weeks and more future freedom of manoeuvre as a result.

Call the EU's bluff and get through the disruption. On 1/1/21 they have zero fish quota whatsoever, zero influence on our laws, zero level playing field. We hold all the cards.

Nothing left but trolling, is there?

You can't get over the fact that nobody agrees with your hive mind can you?

Four consecutive election results including a referendum have permitted Brexit, any single one of them going differently would have killed the project, and still you can't comprehend the fact that people disagree with you.

One of us is right, one of us is wrong. The objective truth is that we do not and can not know who is right until it has happened. At the moment it is Shrodinger's Brexit. The cat could be alive or dead post-No Deal but we don't know.

If the EU won't compromise then its time to get on with it and open the box.

Its the statement "we hold the cards" that is funny. You cite 4 elections as proof that your statement is true. How do you work that one out - does someone voting Tory in 2019 prove that the UK will triumph?

As for people disagreeing with others, I think this one is fairly straightforward. Whilst its perfectly acceptable for you to disagree with the professional opinion of the Road Haulage Association about the impact of No Deal on Road Haulage, your opinion does not carry the same weight as their opinion. One of you works in the industry and knows the facts, the other does not.

We do hold the cards. On all the two remaining issues we hold Pocket Aces. So long as we hold our nerve then we can play those Aces.

Fish: If there's no deal we get all the quota they get none of it. Ace for the UK.

Level playing field: If there's no deal then we get total sovereignty, they get no level playing field. Ace for the UK.

As a Poker player I know full well that Pocket Aces don't always win, but so long as we hold our nerve and don't fold that is what we have. We have a pair of Aces.