I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair – politicalbetting.com
I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair – politicalbetting.com
The Betfair next President market continues to be totally potty and over the past 24 hours we have seen Trump’s chances move from 3% to an 8% one.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Latest statistics released by Public Health Wales (PHW) on Thursday show 1,251 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Wales
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19351059#source=breaking-news
Its a good job Wales at least has regional tiering restrictions....oh wait...
Or are they laying both sides to artificially back Biden, whilst keeping the price up?
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331962427739676673?s=20
Time and time and time again...
"In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.
It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.
Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?
What do you think, Mike?
It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.
I would say the day the fire break was lifted it was as if everyone had decided covid was gone and the activity levels soared with traffic queues (very unusual) , packed shops, pubs etc
But as far as I know the court cases have been heard and dismissed now and certification has already happened. So its inexcusable to not pay out now.
Edit: Flutter Entertainment PLC = BBB- at Fitch, Ba1 at Moody's.
That could mean we will be waiting years.
I really would write to the Gambling Commission in those circumstances. I might even try my MP. Laurence Robertson has a well-merited reputation for idleness but he is something of a betting man, although I expect he has had enough free lunches from the bookies to ensure he takes the proper view of disputes. Nevertheless, maybe worth a go.
They were quoted back in October: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3043233#Comment_3043233
And they were also in the 2016 rules: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/1258168#Comment_1258168
Could it be that the Fixed Odds Terminal rule changes and lockdown and lack of sports gambling opportunities could have affected their cashflow?
Even a month probably isn't enough, unless you go really early, but then big downsides to that. And of course Germany now having to go for 2 months of "diet lockdown", the low calorie lockdown option.
This is all speculative of course, but in the light of Betfair's illogical conduct and its reticence, I think speculation is the least it can expect.
A Tory MP complaining that 'governments of all colours' have underfunded the Dumnonian hospitals (arising from the need to have higher tiers than she would like, in order to protect the NHS etc).
Fair enough, but a bit late now.
Yes Betfair have handled it badly and are being over cautious, probably very simply because the amounts involved and unusual circumstances have left the decision with corporate lawyers rather than market makers. Nothing else to see here!
And its not just the media that has projected it - the votes have been certified now.
Even world leaders South Korea now seeing a spike.
I haven't really got involved at all, but if people think Biden has won, to the extent they are angry at the non payout, I'd say just keep backing him! (or laying Trump as Mike has). Betfair being unable to pay or anything like that is a million I'd say
Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1331936649752743936
https://igamingbusiness.com/flutter-to-migrate-all-betting-brands-to-ppb-platform/
Why? Because who the fuck knows but anything can happen. Or rather, something can happen we just don't know what it is - an unknown unknown.
https://twitter.com/lesleychestrman/status/1331766157028823041?s=20
https://www.archives.gov/files/electoral-college/2020/ascertainment-pennsylvania.pdf
Most of the world wouldn't pay much notice to Betfair going under in those circumstances, but the cost of settling it the wrong way would surely break them.
If they'd just said that they wouldn't settle until a concession, or the formal vote on the 14th, then it wouldn't seem so bad. It's the woolly language of "projected" without saying who by, that has left them with a degree of doubt.
Does he? Too many Tier 1s shorely?
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1331984341740769280?s=20
Even if they think he has literally zero chance of winning, Flutters growth needs support from both Republican and Democrat politicians at state as well as federal levels, waiting for it to be non contentious with US politicians is more important than non contentious with the fine posters of pb.com.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331987171700510720
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1331962915033903108
1. Betfair has not settled by its own rules
2. Betfair has not removed and settled the now impossible candidates like Amy, Hillary and Michelle
3. Betfair has not told us when and how they will settle
From which:-
My uninformed guess is Betfair stalled when Trump did not concede and instead launched legal action. Now Betfair is stuck hoping something will turn up. If they had an actual plan, Betfair could tell us what it is but there isn't so they can't. Or at least, they haven't so I infer there isn't.
By not settling according to its rules on the projected winner, Betfair may have inadvertently changed those rules, specifically the meaning of "projected".
Leaving the no-hopers makes it easier to void the market. (Worryingly, it also makes it easier to settle on the wrong candidate so I'd be inclined to lay Trump or look to one of the related markets such as winning party if I were coming at this anew. This takes us back several months, of course.)
I do not think Betfair plans to do this but is keeping its options open. I doubt there is a plan.