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I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited November 2020 in General
imageI’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair – politicalbetting.com

The Betfair next President market continues to be totally potty and over the past 24 hours we have seen Trump’s chances move from 3% to an 8% one.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Counterparty risk looks more of a thing every day with betfair. Not following you.
  • eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    Trump's still not the winner in that case.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    IshmaelZ said:

    Counterparty risk looks more of a thing every day with betfair. Not following you.

    There's no counterparty risk. All exchange bets have cash taken on both sides. There's a small Betfair creditor risk which is probably why they're being crazily overcautious on settlement.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited November 2020
    If you live in Wales, make sure you have got your oven gloves purchased for that Christmas roast....as fire breaking short circuiting the sequel could be required shortly...

    Latest statistics released by Public Health Wales (PHW) on Thursday show 1,251 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Wales

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19351059#source=breaking-news

    Its a good job Wales at least has regional tiering restrictions....oh wait...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2020
    It seems bizarre in the extreme, it looks like buying money. There must be more to it, but what could it be? Why aren't shrewd gamblers with millions in the bank making it 1.01?

    Or are they laying both sides to artificially back Biden, whilst keeping the price up?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Yes, we're at the point where I think I'd feel confident suing if Betfair settled Trump as the winner. Their rules are clear, and competitive states have almost finished certifying results.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    I hope you've donned your flame suit, @CarlottaVance ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Quincel said:

    Yes, we're at the point where I think I'd feel confident suing if Betfair settled Trump as the winner. Their rules are clear, and competitive states have almost finished certifying results.

    If Trump and Mitch had stacked the courts a bit more with the likes of the McCullough MAGA judge, we'd be looking at a billion pound Theresa May exit market.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I can't see how, since they have left the Harris (and everyone else) market open, too.
  • twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331961833666859011?s=20
    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331962427739676673?s=20

    "But holiday trips overseas have also been a factor in the Covid-19 infection rate and the Scottish National party government has made only limited efforts to enforce the quarantine imposed on travellers returning from countries with relatively high levels of infection."

    Time and time and time again...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2020
    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    Is Trump secretly a director ... ?
  • RobD said:

    I hope you've donned your flame suit, @CarlottaVance ?

    Its alright - they're "facts" a concept unknown to many Nats....

  • twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331961833666859011?s=20
    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331962427739676673?s=20

    "But holiday trips overseas have also been a factor in the Covid-19 infection rate and the Scottish National party government has made only limited efforts to enforce the quarantine imposed on travellers returning from countries with relatively high levels of infection."

    Time and time and time again...
    And now we've got "ski season" coming up.....where the initial UK outbreak came from.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    12th amendment would be for a 269-269 tie.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    Is Trump secretly a director ... ?
    Speculation on twitter that the trader in charge of this market is a MAGA nutcase.
  • isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    Are those rules new? Thought they were always there.
  • eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited November 2020

    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331961833666859011?s=20
    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331962427739676673?s=20

    "But holiday trips overseas have also been a factor in the Covid-19 infection rate and the Scottish National party government has made only limited efforts to enforce the quarantine imposed on travellers returning from countries with relatively high levels of infection."

    Time and time and time again...
    And now we've got "ski season" coming up.....where the initial UK outbreak came from.....
    Luckily the Italians seem to have decided that's off this season and the German's appear to be be putting the pressure on the rest of the EU to put in place a ban it across Europe.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2020

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    Are those rules new? Thought they were always there.
    I don't think they were, otherwise I wouldn't have said they were new! But maybe I am wrong and they were there all the time and I just dont remember reading them. The rules page seems a bit longer than it was before, maybe it is something else that has been added
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    @Peter_the_punter One thing about Betfair, the popular vote market wasn't settled till December in 2016.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331961833666859011?s=20
    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331962427739676673?s=20

    "But holiday trips overseas have also been a factor in the Covid-19 infection rate and the Scottish National party government has made only limited efforts to enforce the quarantine imposed on travellers returning from countries with relatively high levels of infection."

    Time and time and time again...
    And now we've got "ski season" coming up.....where the initial UK outbreak came from.....
    Luckily the Italians seem to have decided that's off this season and the German's appear to be be putting the pressure on the rest of the EU to put in place a ban it across Europe.
    The people who just can't wait a year to go on holiday are incredibly selfish.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331961833666859011?s=20
    twitter.com/kevverage/status/1331962427739676673?s=20

    "But holiday trips overseas have also been a factor in the Covid-19 infection rate and the Scottish National party government has made only limited efforts to enforce the quarantine imposed on travellers returning from countries with relatively high levels of infection."

    Time and time and time again...
    And now we've got "ski season" coming up.....where the initial UK outbreak came from.....
    Luckily the Italians seem to have decided that's off this season and the German's appear to be be putting the pressure on the rest of the EU to put in place a ban it across Europe.
    Austria are flouting that and have opened the ski slopes to benefit from everyone else's being closed.
  • If you live in Wales, make sure you have got your oven gloves purchased for that Christmas roast....as fire breaking short circuiting the sequel could be required shortly...

    Latest statistics released by Public Health Wales (PHW) on Thursday show 1,251 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Wales

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19351059#source=breaking-news

    Its a good job Wales at least has regional tiering restrictions....oh wait...

    But Drakeford was adamant the fire break was a one off

    I would say the day the fire break was lifted it was as if everyone had decided covid was gone and the activity levels soared with traffic queues (very unusual) , packed shops, pubs etc
  • eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    I could understand Betfair's logic for the first few days when there were court cases outstanding. In the [extremely unlikely] event that court cases flipped enough states to Trump then he would become the projected winner. There's no obligation on Betfair to prejudge court cases.

    But as far as I know the court cases have been heard and dismissed now and certification has already happened. So its inexcusable to not pay out now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited November 2020
    isam said:

    It seems bizarre in the extreme, it looks like buying money. There must be more to it, but what could it be? Why aren't shrewd gamblers with millions in the bank making it 1.01?

    Or are they laying both sides to artificially back Biden, whilst keeping the price up?

    There is a credit risk. I know in theory Betfair is sitting on cold hard cash, but it isn't, and unlike the banks isn't backed by, the Bank of England.

    Edit: Flutter Entertainment PLC = BBB- at Fitch, Ba1 at Moody's.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited November 2020

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    Are those rules new? Thought they were always there.
    I don't think they were, otherwise I wouldn't have said they were new! But maybe I am wrong and they were there all the time and I just dont remember reading them. The rules page seems a bit longer than it was before, maybe it is something else that has been added
    Here are the rules anyway


  • Pulpstar said:

    @Peter_the_punter One thing about Betfair, the popular vote market wasn't settled till December in 2016.

    That suggests that until the last vote has been counted, all legal action and other queries have been exhausted, and the defeated party has conceded, they are not going to pay out.
    That could mean we will be waiting years.

    I really would write to the Gambling Commission in those circumstances. I might even try my MP. Laurence Robertson has a well-merited reputation for idleness but he is something of a betting man, although I expect he has had enough free lunches from the bookies to ensure he takes the proper view of disputes. Nevertheless, maybe worth a go.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

    It is part of the Paddy Power group, the group has debt and a tonne of 'goodwill' - but it's profitable.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

    It is part of the Paddy Power group, the group has debt and a tonne of 'goodwill' - but it's profitable.
    Has anyone actually just asked them? They normally reply to CS queries on twitter
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    Are those rules new? Thought they were always there.
    I don't think they were, otherwise I wouldn't have said they were new! But maybe I am wrong and they were there all the time and I just dont remember reading them. The rules page seems a bit longer than it was before, maybe it is something else that has been added
    I don't think its new, I recall reading them before.

    They were quoted back in October: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3043233#Comment_3043233

    And they were also in the 2016 rules: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/1258168#Comment_1258168
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    Are those rules new? Thought they were always there.
    I don't think they were, otherwise I wouldn't have said they were new! But maybe I am wrong and they were there all the time and I just dont remember reading them. The rules page seems a bit longer than it was before, maybe it is something else that has been added
    I don't think its new, I recall reading them before.

    They were quoted back in October: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3043233#Comment_3043233

    And they were also in the 2016 rules: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/1258168#Comment_1258168
    Sorry, you are right then. The rules seemed longer to me than they were before, but looks like I just misremembered. I posted them upthread
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204

    Pulpstar said:

    @Peter_the_punter One thing about Betfair, the popular vote market wasn't settled till December in 2016.

    That suggests that until the last vote has been counted, all legal action and other queries have been exhausted, and the defeated party has conceded, they are not going to pay out.
    That could mean we will be waiting years.

    I really would write to the Gambling Commission in those circumstances. I might even try my MP. Laurence Robertson has a well-merited reputation for idleness but he is something of a betting man, although I expect he has had enough free lunches from the bookies to ensure he takes the proper view of disputes. Nevertheless, maybe worth a go.
    December the 8th/14th are key dates. All certifications will be in by the 8th. The slightly disturbing part is that Michigan hasn't yet been settled. That is certified and well outside any recount margin.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

    It is part of the Paddy Power group, the group has debt and a tonne of 'goodwill' - but it's profitable.
    At least they used to be.

    Could it be that the Fixed Odds Terminal rule changes and lockdown and lack of sports gambling opportunities could have affected their cashflow?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

    It is part of the Paddy Power group, the group has debt and a tonne of 'goodwill' - but it's profitable.
    Has anyone actually just asked them? They normally reply to CS queries on twitter
    Their replies on this are a nonsense. Something like "We'll settle on the 8th as as that is 'safe harbour' date by which point all certifications will be in" would put everyone's mind at rest.
  • RobD said:

    I hope you've donned your flame suit, @CarlottaVance ?

    That thing of PB Yoons being told to don tin hat/armour/flame proof suit and then no one paying them any attention is utterly charming.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    Yeah, Betfair isn't a Ponzi scheme, it's a market maker.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    I hope you've donned your flame suit, @CarlottaVance ?

    That thing of PB Yoons being told to don tin hat/armour/flame proof suit and then no one paying them any attention is utterly charming.
    Malc's not up yet then?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,881

    RobD said:

    I hope you've donned your flame suit, @CarlottaVance ?

    That thing of PB Yoons being told to don tin hat/armour/flame proof suit and then no one paying them any attention is utterly charming.
    Intereestingly, the UK Gmt's own website says not to make direct comparisons as the stats collection methods and definitions are different anyway ...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

    It is part of the Paddy Power group, the group has debt and a tonne of 'goodwill' - but it's profitable.
    At least they used to be.

    Could it be that the Fixed Odds Terminal rule changes and lockdown and lack of sports gambling opportunities could have affected their cashflow?
    Their share price wouldn`t indicate that. I tucked a few away a couple of weeks back given the extent of the US election betting which will net them a heap of dosh. Flutter Entertainment. Up a 5% today I see.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited November 2020

    If you live in Wales, make sure you have got your oven gloves purchased for that Christmas roast....as fire breaking short circuiting the sequel could be required shortly...

    Latest statistics released by Public Health Wales (PHW) on Thursday show 1,251 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Wales

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19351059#source=breaking-news

    Its a good job Wales at least has regional tiering restrictions....oh wait...

    But Drakeford was adamant the fire break was a one off

    I would say the day the fire break was lifted it was as if everyone had decided covid was gone and the activity levels soared with traffic queues (very unusual) , packed shops, pubs etc
    I presume Captain Hindsight will be quietly forgetting his big push on 2 week firebreaks....now that the fire break idea failed in NI and at most generous take hasn't driven down new cases in Wales to anywhere near low enough levels.

    Even a month probably isn't enough, unless you go really early, but then big downsides to that. And of course Germany now having to go for 2 months of "diet lockdown", the low calorie lockdown option.
  • Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

    It's part of a much larger organisation now than it once was so it could be that whilst Betfair itself is basically healthy (and given the nature of the business it jolly well should be) other parts of the group are strapped for cash and bleeding Betfair dry.

    This is all speculative of course, but in the light of Betfair's illogical conduct and its reticence, I think speculation is the least it can expect.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,881
    edited November 2020
    https://twitter.com/AnneMarieMorris/status/1331927827676098561

    A Tory MP complaining that 'governments of all colours' have underfunded the Dumnonian hospitals (arising from the need to have higher tiers than she would like, in order to protect the NHS etc).

    Fair enough, but a bit late now.



  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    No one has officially been declared POTUS so of course they are going to keep the market open. Why wouldn't they? People want to bet so they let people bet.
  • Some very weird comments on this thread. Flutter group are not going bust! Nor are they risking their multi billion dollar company to shaft a few political bettors which is <0.1% of their business. Get a grip people!

    Yes Betfair have handled it badly and are being over cautious, probably very simply because the amounts involved and unusual circumstances have left the decision with corporate lawyers rather than market makers. Nothing else to see here!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2020

    If you live in Wales, make sure you have got your oven gloves purchased for that Christmas roast....as fire breaking short circuiting the sequel could be required shortly...

    Latest statistics released by Public Health Wales (PHW) on Thursday show 1,251 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Wales

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19351059#source=breaking-news

    Its a good job Wales at least has regional tiering restrictions....oh wait...

    But Drakeford was adamant the fire break was a one off

    I would say the day the fire break was lifted it was as if everyone had decided covid was gone and the activity levels soared with traffic queues (very unusual) , packed shops, pubs etc
    I presume Captain Hindsight will be quietly forgetting his big push on 2 week firebreaks....now that the fire break idea failed in NI and at most generous take hasn't driven down new cases in Wales to anywhere near low enough levels.

    Even a month probably isn't enough, unless you go really early, but then big downsides to that.
    Which is what many of us said here at the time. 2 weeks would be long enough to destroy stock and damage business but not long enough to have a meaningful impact on case numbers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    Corporate fraud is not non-existent. Sure, it almost certainly isn't happening here just as Trump almost certainly won't be re-elected, but you are betting a stack of money at atrocious odds that it isn't happening.
  • isam said:

    It seems bizarre in the extreme, it looks like buying money. There must be more to it, but what could it be? Why aren't shrewd gamblers with millions in the bank making it 1.01?

    Or are they laying both sides to artificially back Biden, whilst keeping the price up?

    Sam, you probably know the industry better than anyone here. What do you think is going on?
  • TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    No one has officially been declared POTUS so of course they are going to keep the market open. Why wouldn't they? People want to bet so they let people bet.
    Someone has been projected POTUS which is what the rules say.

    And its not just the media that has projected it - the votes have been certified now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    No one has officially been declared POTUS so of course they are going to keep the market open. Why wouldn't they? People want to bet so they let people bet.
    I think this is the answer, ultimately. Betfair get their commission whatever happens and leaving the market open until the latest possible date means more fees generated. Wasn't it at £700m or so on election day? That means they have seen an extra £300m worth of bets matched and that's a huge number for them in terms of commisson.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Pulpstar said:

    @Peter_the_punter One thing about Betfair, the popular vote market wasn't settled till December in 2016.

    That suggests that until the last vote has been counted, all legal action and other queries have been exhausted, and the defeated party has conceded, they are not going to pay out.
    That could mean we will be waiting years.

    I really would write to the Gambling Commission in those circumstances. I might even try my MP. Laurence Robertson has a well-merited reputation for idleness but he is something of a betting man, although I expect he has had enough free lunches from the bookies to ensure he takes the proper view of disputes. Nevertheless, maybe worth a go.
    Does anyone here live in Newcastle-under-Lyme? I heard a nasty rumour that their MP is a bit of a gambling fan.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    No one has officially been declared POTUS so of course they are going to keep the market open. Why wouldn't they? People want to bet so they let people bet.
    Yeah I agree.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    How much money are Betfair earning in interest, having over £1bn sitting in their bank account for a month?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited November 2020

    If you live in Wales, make sure you have got your oven gloves purchased for that Christmas roast....as fire breaking short circuiting the sequel could be required shortly...

    Latest statistics released by Public Health Wales (PHW) on Thursday show 1,251 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Wales

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19351059#source=breaking-news

    Its a good job Wales at least has regional tiering restrictions....oh wait...

    But Drakeford was adamant the fire break was a one off

    I would say the day the fire break was lifted it was as if everyone had decided covid was gone and the activity levels soared with traffic queues (very unusual) , packed shops, pubs etc
    I presume Captain Hindsight will be quietly forgetting his big push on 2 week firebreaks....now that the fire break idea failed in NI and at most generous take hasn't driven down new cases in Wales to anywhere near low enough levels.

    Even a month probably isn't enough, unless you go really early, but then big downsides to that.
    Which is what many of us said here at the time. 2 weeks would be long enough to destroy stock and damage business but not long enough to have a meaningful impact on case numbers.
    The reality is to fight COVID there is no easy "quick fix" option, especially once it gets going in a country. Anybody claiming you can just do x for 2 weeks or just trace your way out of it are selling snake oil. With the exception of a couple of countries, you either have to lock yourself away from the world (and internally) for basically ever or you have to live with a number of lockdowns and restrictions which need to be in place for significant periods.

    Even world leaders South Korea now seeing a spike.
  • isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    Are those rules new? Thought they were always there.
    Certainly been there for some time, and don't in any case affect the principles.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Sandpit said:

    How much money are Betfair earning in interest, having over £1bn sitting in their bank account for a month?

    Not very much.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Sandpit said:

    How much money are Betfair earning in interest, having over £1bn sitting in their bank account for a month?

    Is that the net value of the market, or the amount that has been traded?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    No one has officially been declared POTUS so of course they are going to keep the market open. Why wouldn't they? People want to bet so they let people bet.
    I think this is the answer, ultimately. Betfair get their commission whatever happens and leaving the market open until the latest possible date means more fees generated. Wasn't it at £700m or so on election day? That means they have seen an extra £300m worth of bets matched and that's a huge number for them in terms of commisson.
    Yep. And if folk are daft enough to think Trump has a hope in hell of winning, and are prepared to chuck money at it, then who should stop them?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2020

    isam said:

    It seems bizarre in the extreme, it looks like buying money. There must be more to it, but what could it be? Why aren't shrewd gamblers with millions in the bank making it 1.01?

    Or are they laying both sides to artificially back Biden, whilst keeping the price up?

    Sam, you probably know the industry better than anyone here. What do you think is going on?
    I think what Topping says is probably right, that they are keeping the market up because people want to bet on it. It would be different if there were no layers and billions wanting to back Biden at 1.01, but as long as people want to lay him, and there is some doubt, however small, that he is definitely next President, they'll keep it open. They aren't like other bookies who can just pay out, and swallow it if Trump does manage to overturn it, because its not their money.

    I haven't really got involved at all, but if people think Biden has won, to the extent they are angry at the non payout, I'd say just keep backing him! (or laying Trump as Mike has). Betfair being unable to pay or anything like that is a million I'd say
  • MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    No one has officially been declared POTUS so of course they are going to keep the market open. Why wouldn't they? People want to bet so they let people bet.
    I think this is the answer, ultimately. Betfair get their commission whatever happens and leaving the market open until the latest possible date means more fees generated. Wasn't it at £700m or so on election day? That means they have seen an extra £300m worth of bets matched and that's a huge number for them in terms of commisson.
    It sounds like a lot more than it is. I think it was sub £600m on election day but still of the £400m the majority will be traded in and out. Some of it will even be people flattening out pre election day positions which actually costs them commission rather than generates it. Its probably generating additional positions of no more than £50m-£100m which if Biden wins will be a win of £5m-£10m. They get about 3% of that which is £150k-£300k.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    Farage's view on the latest developments.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1331936649752743936
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Andy_JS said:

    Farage's view on the latest developments.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1331936649752743936

    Then what are the current arrangements?
  • Sandpit said:

    How much money are Betfair earning in interest, having over £1bn sitting in their bank account for a month?

    They dont have a £1bn in the bank from this market. Volume traders will have traded in and out dozens of times. Having money tied up in long term markets slows down day to day trading which is how they make their money.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
    Flutter to migrate all betting brands to PPB platform

    https://igamingbusiness.com/flutter-to-migrate-all-betting-brands-to-ppb-platform/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I've given this more thought than is healthy and I just can't come up with a sound explanation.

    Biden's sudden demise shouldn't alter anything because of the terms of the rules. I suppose the problem there is that under the terms of the rules they should have paid out already, so it would not be atypical if they ignored them and voided the market. Somehow though I don't think this is likely. What is now a persistent grumbling from punters would turn into outrage so furious it may even stir the Gambling Commission from its torpor.

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.

    But realistically when will they be settled? If not now, then when? There is no logical point of payment beyond those that have already been passed. My guess is that they will pick some fixed date, like Electoral College day, and treat that as if it were definitive. That would give a fig-leaf of respectability to conduct that has been anything but respectable.

    Another possibility, although a fairly improbable one, is that the Gambling Commission has a word with them. I wonder if anyone here has written to them? I haven't done so myself because previous experience has indicated that they are next door to useless, and in any case individual enquiries from members of the public are easily shrugged off. Maybe an approach from OGH on behalf of disgruntled PBers might squeeze through their wire mesh?

    What do you think, Mike?
    Betfair is part of the Flutter group which is gigantic. I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't have the money to settle this market.
    The money to payout isn't theirs anyway, so do people really think they are embezzling punters deposits? Overthinking it I'd say
    No one has officially been declared POTUS so of course they are going to keep the market open. Why wouldn't they? People want to bet so they let people bet.
    Someone has been projected POTUS which is what the rules say.

    And its not just the media that has projected it - the votes have been certified now.
    No one has officially been made POTUS. Hence the market is open. If you want to back Trump at 1,000 go for your life. It means someone (not bf) is laying him.

    Why? Because who the fuck knows but anything can happen. Or rather, something can happen we just don't know what it is - an unknown unknown.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Andy_JS said:

    Farage's view on the latest developments.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1331936649752743936

    Loud, persistent expulsion of hot air significantly aids transmission.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
    Customer Service was outsourced to Romania about three years ago, and it fell off a cliff. Not always as big as this POTUS thing, but continuity in footballers names "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" "Dominic Lewin" "Lewin" D Calvert-Lewin" different every time, mis-settlement almost every day, really has gone downhill.
  • isam said:
    Lockdown has been a massive success then... :trollface:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
    Yes, I've found similar issues and I think it probably is due to PP cost cutting where they don't see direct returns on investment and development is unlikely to ever generate direct returns.
  • One of the best places in North America for food...

    https://twitter.com/lesleychestrman/status/1331766157028823041?s=20
  • Sandpit said:

    How much money are Betfair earning in interest, having over £1bn sitting in their bank account for a month?

    Interest is a more likely explanation than commission imo but it won't be anything like £1 billion. For a start, it is double-counted, and almost certainly most of it is people (and their bots) trading in and out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
    Customer Service was outsourced to Romania about three years ago, and it fell off a cliff. Not always as big as this POTUS thing, but continuity in footballers names "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" "Dominic Lewin" "Lewin" D Calvert-Lewin" different every time, mis-settlement almost every day, really has gone downhill.
    For sports betting it must be a nightmare, I don't bet on sports very much so don't see it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited November 2020
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
    Customer Service was outsourced to Romania about three years ago, and it fell off a cliff. Not always as big as this POTUS thing, but continuity in footballers names "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" "Dominic Lewin" "Lewin" D Calvert-Lewin" different every time, mis-settlement almost every day, really has gone downhill.
    I hear that the once incredibly well run, with best software and top notch customer support, Pokerstars, has also gone rapidly downhill since being purchased by Flutter.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
    The last time they had a really hot IT department was when the IT department was just Andrew Black!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    isam said:
    Lockdown has been a massive success then... :trollface:
    That depends on the counterfactual, doesn't it? It was obviously not going to be as dramatic as the first since it only lasted four weeks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Here's Pennsylvania's official presidential result by the way

    https://www.archives.gov/files/electoral-college/2020/ascertainment-pennsylvania.pdf
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    One of the best places in North America for food...

    https://twitter.com/lesleychestrman/status/1331766157028823041?s=20

    NB. This is the Provincial Quebec government before usual laying into Trudeau begins.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    edited November 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    @Peter_the_punter One thing about Betfair, the popular vote market wasn't settled till December in 2016.

    That suggests that until the last vote has been counted, all legal action and other queries have been exhausted, and the defeated party has conceded, they are not going to pay out.
    That could mean we will be waiting years.

    I really would write to the Gambling Commission in those circumstances. I might even try my MP. Laurence Robertson has a well-merited reputation for idleness but he is something of a betting man, although I expect he has had enough free lunches from the bookies to ensure he takes the proper view of disputes. Nevertheless, maybe worth a go.
    Suppose they pay out on Biden, but then Trump's Supreme Court judges do come out to swing for him?

    Most of the world wouldn't pay much notice to Betfair going under in those circumstances, but the cost of settling it the wrong way would surely break them.

    If they'd just said that they wouldn't settle until a concession, or the formal vote on the 14th, then it wouldn't seem so bad. It's the woolly language of "projected" without saying who by, that has left them with a degree of doubt.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    isam said:
    Lockdown has been a massive success then... :trollface:
    I think it`s a punishment beating for wanting some freedoms at Christmas. A reverse Santa. Sort of.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2020
    I think he has the Old Tier and New Tier columns mixed up

    Does he? Too many Tier 1s shorely?

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1331984341740769280?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    How much money are Betfair earning in interest, having over £1bn sitting in their bank account for a month?

    They dont have a £1bn in the bank from this market. Volume traders will have traded in and out dozens of times. Having money tied up in long term markets slows down day to day trading which is how they make their money.
    Ah yes. Unless the headline amount goes down as people trade out, which I don't think it does, there's going to be a lot less than a billion actually in play.
  • isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm really frustrated that a huge proportion of my potential winnings is tied up in this market at the moment.

    It's put me off Betfair, ever since they became part of Paddy Power I've been less and less impressed by them and now I've reached the limit of what I can stand. Will now have to look to other markets for political betting.

    Funny you should say that Max. It may be coincidence but since the takeover I've found their site clunkier and more prone to erratic behaviour. I think they used to have a really hot IT department. Perhaps it broke up when PP came in.

    Anyway, it's not the fun site it once was, so closing the account will be no hardship for me.
    Customer Service was outsourced to Romania about three years ago, and it fell off a cliff. Not always as big as this POTUS thing, but continuity in footballers names "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" "Dominic Lewin" "Lewin" D Calvert-Lewin" different every time, mis-settlement almost every day, really has gone downhill.
    I hear that the once incredibly well run, with best software and top notch customer support, Pokerstars, has also gone rapidly downhill since being purchased by Flutter.
    Not used it seriously for a long time but Pokerstars IT and support was indeed world class a decade ago - I do fear the battle against collusion and bots in poker is ultimately unwinnable and it was probably impossible to maintain their excellence and levels of trust the playing community had in them, regardless of ownership.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Sidney Powell has filed a couple of crackpot "kraken" lawsuits in GA and MI. She'll be laughed out of court with both of them.
  • Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    It did occur to me last nite that one simple explanation might be that Betfair is in fact going broke and is desperate to avoid shelling out until it has to. Generally, late payment is a sure sign a bookie is in financial difficulties as I know from my experiences with Intrade and Betway. For this reason I would always advise avoiding a bookie who starts making excuses and I will be closing my Betfair account when the Presidential Markets are settled.
    Well that's a disturbing but not deranged thought. Betfair feels like an institution now, like Ladbrokes or WillHill, which I can barely imagine disappearing. But it could. Would be cataclysmic, especially if it exposed cashflow problems at the smaller exchanges too.

    It is part of the Paddy Power group, the group has debt and a tonne of 'goodwill' - but it's profitable.
    Has anyone actually just asked them? They normally reply to CS queries on twitter
    Their replies on this are a nonsense. Something like "We'll settle on the 8th as as that is 'safe harbour' date by which point all certifications will be in" would put everyone's mind at rest.
    Not surprising. On the odd occasions I have tried to obtain explanations from them I have always had the impression of dealing with very junior, inexperienced staff who didn't understand the problem and just wanted to get the matter out of their intray.
  • I dont think this reason has been mentioned before but this thread has made me think of it and it is the sort of thing a corporate lawyer would think of. A lot of Flutter's expected growth is based on growing US turnover through their various US focused brands. They will be wary of going against Trump whilst he has a non zero chance of winning in court for those reasons in addition to the prospect of paying out twice.

    Even if they think he has literally zero chance of winning, Flutters growth needs support from both Republican and Democrat politicians at state as well as federal levels, waiting for it to be non contentious with US politicians is more important than non contentious with the fine posters of pb.com.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    It seems bizarre in the extreme, it looks like buying money. There must be more to it, but what could it be? Why aren't shrewd gamblers with millions in the bank making it 1.01?

    Or are they laying both sides to artificially back Biden, whilst keeping the price up?

    There is a credit risk. I know in theory Betfair is sitting on cold hard cash, but it isn't, and unlike the banks isn't backed by, the Bank of England.

    Edit: Flutter Entertainment PLC = BBB- at Fitch, Ba1 at Moody's.
    Its shares are also at an all time high so doubt they are broke .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    Surely if something happened to Biden the entire market would be voided rather than paying out..

    I do not think it does.
    The trouble is that you're relying on Betfair following its rules. But as the market hasn't been settled, it seems they're able to disregard their rules with impunity.
    New rules added, FWIW. The second part seems a bit unecessary?

    "In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held."
    Are those rules new? Thought they were always there.
    I don't think they were, otherwise I wouldn't have said they were new! But maybe I am wrong and they were there all the time and I just dont remember reading them. The rules page seems a bit longer than it was before, maybe it is something else that has been added
    The second bit was certainly there before the election.
  • Three things we know:-
    1. Betfair has not settled by its own rules
    2. Betfair has not removed and settled the now impossible candidates like Amy, Hillary and Michelle
    3. Betfair has not told us when and how they will settle

    From which:-
    My uninformed guess is Betfair stalled when Trump did not concede and instead launched legal action. Now Betfair is stuck hoping something will turn up. If they had an actual plan, Betfair could tell us what it is but there isn't so they can't. Or at least, they haven't so I infer there isn't.

    By not settling according to its rules on the projected winner, Betfair may have inadvertently changed those rules, specifically the meaning of "projected".

    Leaving the no-hopers makes it easier to void the market. (Worryingly, it also makes it easier to settle on the wrong candidate so I'd be inclined to lay Trump or look to one of the related markets such as winning party if I were coming at this anew. This takes us back several months, of course.)

    I do not think Betfair plans to do this but is keeping its options open. I doubt there is a plan.

  • isam said:
    Lockdown has been a massive success then... :trollface:
    What would it have been like otherwise? It was probably just in time, but the combination of coming out of lockdown now and then having a 5 day Xmas party week will make it all in vain, back to fuller lockdown for January and February whilst the vaccination programmes hopefully kick in.
This discussion has been closed.