Cummings – the end of the line for his time at Number 10? – politicalbetting.com

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

edmundintokyo said:

yet somehow Brexit is still there.

It's more and more obvious that Theresa May's deal was the best one

A betting complaint. Actually several.

Spreadex. Crap. Market was suspended most of the election night which totally defeats the point of a spread trading floor. In a rare window of opportunity I came in at 262 ECVs. Spreadex haven't settled on 306 ECVs

Betfair. Whilst I can just about understand them not coughing up on 306 ECVs yet, failing to cough up on Biden's Pennsylvania win is rubbish

But finally thank you to PaddyPower. 1/8 that Trump wouldn't concede by today when the bet was only placed on Monday of this week was kind of free money really. They have now re-opened this market to 1st December at the same odds which does not seem like such a good bet to me. It has to be by a televised address but those are pretty stingy odds considering the 3 week wait.

The government is poised to reach a settlement with an aide who was marched out of Downing Street by armed police after being sacked by Dominic Cummings.

Government sources said that Sonia Khan, a former special adviser to the then chancellor Sajid Javid, will receive a settlement worth between £50,000 and £100,000.

The dispute was headed to an employment tribunal next month which could have resulted in Mr Cummings having to give evidence as well as the publication of a cache of WhatsApp messages, texts and emails between senior Downing Street advisers that were submitted as part of the tribunal.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/settlement-for-sonia-khan-adviser-marched-out-of-no-10-gkt56d6jn

https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1327020958255878149

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1327030819957956612

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1327024907994230786

Mysticrose said:

DJL, I cashed out on my 14/1 Rishi Sunak bet this week. It's not that I don't think he's favourite (sorry for the double negative) it's that there are too many curve balls around at the moment. And Dishi Rishi is not going to be flavour of the month in all quarters the longer he is made to wait.

And Gove is a scheming shit, so if he can shaft Rishi, he will.

Rishi's sudden popularity might be what stayed the hand of Gove (and Cummings). No point in ousting the Prime Minister if the Chancellor picks up the pieces.

https://twitter.com/Ncknwmn/status/1327056771878367233

edmundintokyo said:

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Good riddance. A bully, a liar, a fool and a failure. Unfit to be clerk to a parish council.

Another aspect that may have a bearing on many people’s lives - Cummings is obsessed with exams ahead of coursework. His whole disastrous education strategy was based on that. Now he is out, expect GCSE and AS level exams at the very least to be cancelled in the near future and replaced with externally moderated coursework.

I was expecting that in January anyway, because there are so few other realistic options given what the government is trying to do (the only way to hold exams would be to shut schools to everyone except exam groups) and thought that might be the trigger for Cummings’ Goings. But he’s gone in advance.

WhisperingOracle said:

edmundintokyo said:

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Are we being governed by Carrie now? We really are giving the Trumps a run for their money.

.

Scott_xP said:

WhisperingOracle said:

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Brady's postbag will be bulging if BoZo delays Brexit

Don't delay it then; merely extend the transition period and relabel it the implementation period. People will be able to see we are not ready in the Kent lorry park or the fishing ports and understand talks must continue.

WhisperingOracle said:

Roger said:

WhisperingOracle said:

edmundintokyo said:

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Are we being governed by Carrie now? We really are giving the Trumps a run for their money.

Relative to Cummings, I think that's a good thing. There seems surprisingly little positive support for either Brexit or Cummings over among the Mail contributors in the last few days, and as I understand the polls have shown a big drop in Brexit support too. There would still be a fair amount of angry people on the right even in the middle of a pandemic if we extended, obviously, though.

This won't be about extension to transition though but Johnson agreeing a deal and a 12 month implementation period won't it? No way practically or politically of extending the transition period I don't think?

Obviously the deal is a dangerous moment for the PM, given where his party is on Brexit and lockdown but no doubt it will be spun as a triumph.

I do think the reaction to a deal outside of the bubble will probably be a shrug of the shoulders except for a few zealots.

Though keeping Cummings on was always untenable without him who's going to give cover to this completely shit government? The knives will be coming from every direction. There's a bunch of very angry senior civil servants for starters

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mysticrose said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

A quick run through of Betfair prices.


Trump ECVs 210-239 1.16
Biden ECVs 300-329 1.15

Incredible!!!! The only way Biden won't finish on 306 is if you think c 20,000 votes in Georgia will be rejected. Not going to happen.

Hat tip. Thank you.

Those prices have actually lengthened overnight. Does someone worry that Georgia might end up with no ECVs if the recount goes on too long? Remember in Florida 2000 one Republican tactic was to delay the recounts and then argue there was no time left so the court had to decide. (Note I'm not saying this will happen; just trying to rationalise the prices having drifted.)

It's worth fleshing this out.

Thank you for this suggestion. Like you, I don't think that scenario will happen.

However, to apply the logical betting head to this, even if that DID happen it wouldn't give Georgia to Donald Trump. And that means, drumroll, that with North Carolina he finishes on 232. Cast iron.

Which makes THE value bet not the Biden 306 (though that's still over 95% imho) but the 210-239 on Donald Trump at 1.16. That is STONKING value bet.

There is basically no way that I can see in any reasonable scenario for Donald Trump not finishing between 210 and 239 ECVs. (It will be 232).

Anyone?

Good morning, everyone.

Comic timing today. The vaunted weather front didn't wake me up, yet the minute I open the door to take the dog for a walk it starts raining stair rods.

A paper looking at what might have happened in the US with a mass screening program using an 80% specificity antigen test back in the summer.

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1326438745634185216

not_on_fire said:

CNN / NYT have called Arizona for Biden, finally

John McCain says "Arizona to Trump - You're fired"

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Comic timing today. The vaunted weather front didn't wake me up, yet the minute I open the door to take the dog for a walk it starts raining stair rods.

Really? Round here it just rained water as normal.

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

yet somehow Brexit is still there.

It's more and more obvious that Theresa May's deal was the best one

Silly of you lot to oppose it then wasn’t it

WhisperingOracle said:

edmundintokyo said:

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Don’t be silly

The transition is done

We move into a 12 month “gradual implementation” phase at this point

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1327144973146464258

https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1327141451638198280

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1327146562670227456

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

WhisperingOracle said:

edmundintokyo said:

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Don’t be silly

The transition is done

We move into a 12 month “gradual implementation” phase at this point

That’s an irregular verb, isn’t it? They Brexit in name only, you have a transition period, we are in an implementation phase.

Charles is only following the govt's failed attempts last time to rebrand the transition period as an implementation period.

Huge success back then....

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1327147837575016448

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

I am wondering however if it is any coincidence that Khan’s compensation package and Cummings’ departure have been announced on the same day.

The size of it is effectively an admission that she was treated not merely unfairly but illegally by Cummings. Given that’s twice he’s acted illegally and laws have been changed retrospectively to cover it, plus the fact all his ideas for actually governing have failed, it’s hard to see how he could have stayed.

Edit - I also wonder what he will do next. Who’s going to hire somebody with his very public track record?

Everyone and anyone. He is an operator.

An operator? He couldn’t operate a clockwork toy. And he’s demonstrated that so clearly even Johnson has spotted it.

.

ydoethur said:

I am wondering however if it is any coincidence that Khan’s compensation package and Cummings’ departure have been announced on the same day.

The size of it is effectively an admission that she was treated not merely unfairly but illegally by Cummings. Given that’s twice he’s acted illegally and laws have been changed retrospectively to cover it, plus the fact all his ideas for actually governing have failed, it’s hard to see how he could have stayed.

Edit - I also wonder what he will do next. Who’s going to hire somebody with his very public track record?

Future Prime Minister Michael Gove.

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

I am wondering however if it is any coincidence that Khan’s compensation package and Cummings’ departure have been announced on the same day.

The size of it is effectively an admission that she was treated not merely unfairly but illegally by Cummings. Given that’s twice he’s acted illegally and laws have been changed retrospectively to cover it, plus the fact all his ideas for actually governing have failed, it’s hard to see how he could have stayed.

Edit - I also wonder what he will do next. Who’s going to hire somebody with his very public track record?

Everyone and anyone. He is an operator.

An operator? He couldn’t operate a clockwork toy. And he’s demonstrated that so clearly even Johnson has spotted it.

Seriously?

Why don't you start with some of his achievements?

Such as?

Actually nothing I can think of over the past four years.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1327146562670227456

You would hope that Carrie has an advantage here.

Charles said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

yet somehow Brexit is still there.

It's more and more obvious that Theresa May's deal was the best one

Silly of you lot to oppose it then wasn’t it

You're a cantankerous old git really aren't you?

For the record, I urged everyone to vote for Theresa May's deal, despite being opposed to Brexit. I said at the time repeatedly that it was the best possible deal available and the least worst outcome. I even wrote to my then Conservative MP urging him to vote for it (he didn't).

Buck up.

https://twitter.com/CamillaTominey/status/1327150118492114944

Nigelb said:

A paper looking at what might have happened in the US with a mass screening program using an 80% specificity antigen test back in the summer.

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1326438745634185216

Nobody likes a smart arse.....

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

I am wondering however if it is any coincidence that Khan’s compensation package and Cummings’ departure have been announced on the same day.

The size of it is effectively an admission that she was treated not merely unfairly but illegally by Cummings. Given that’s twice he’s acted illegally and laws have been changed retrospectively to cover it, plus the fact all his ideas for actually governing have failed, it’s hard to see how he could have stayed.

Edit - I also wonder what he will do next. Who’s going to hire somebody with his very public track record?

Everyone and anyone. He is an operator.

An operator? He couldn’t operate a clockwork toy. And he’s demonstrated that so clearly even Johnson has spotted it.

Seriously?

Why don't you start with some of his achievements?

Such as?

Actually nothing I can think of over the past four years.

I think you’re generous, I can go back 20. Two days and one slogan on the NE Assembly referendum subsequently spun as a single handed defeat of Tony Blair, a series of education reforms that have had the opposite effects to the ones intended and a slogan on the side of a bus that was based on a simple lie. In business, a string of bankruptcies. Plus we have Khan and Barnard Castle.

Not an encouraging CV.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1327146562670227456

Which one of them is he shagging the most?

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

ydoethur said:

I am wondering however if it is any coincidence that Khan’s compensation package and Cummings’ departure have been announced on the same day.

The size of it is effectively an admission that she was treated not merely unfairly but illegally by Cummings. Given that’s twice he’s acted illegally and laws have been changed retrospectively to cover it, plus the fact all his ideas for actually governing have failed, it’s hard to see how he could have stayed.

Edit - I also wonder what he will do next. Who’s going to hire somebody with his very public track record?

Everyone and anyone. He is an operator.

An operator? He couldn’t operate a clockwork toy. And he’s demonstrated that so clearly even Johnson has spotted it.

Seriously?

Why don't you start with some of his achievements?

Such as?

Actually nothing I can think of over the past four years.

I think you’re generous, I can go back 20. Two days and one slogan on the NE Assembly referendum subsequently spun as a single handed defeat of Tony Blair, a series of education reforms that have had the opposite effects to the ones intended and a slogan on the side of a bus that was based on a simple lie. In business, a string of bankruptcies. Plus we have Khan and Barnard Castle.

Not an encouraging CV.

It's the same thinking that says Nigel Farage was a failed politician also.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/CamillaTominey/status/1327150118492114944

It is obvious who is in charge. Events.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1327141451638198280

Cummings loving had me a blast
Cummings loving happened so fast
I met a Boris crazy for leave
I met a nerd, bald as can be

Cummings days drifting away to oh oh the Cummings nights
Lie some more, lie some more
Did you test your eyes?
Lie some more, lie some more
Like does he have a blog?

He ran away, he got the bug
He ran by me on his way to the north
I saved Leave's life, they nearly lost
He showed off sacking those aides
Cummings gone, somethings begun but oh oh the Cummings nights

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

WhisperingOracle said:

edmundintokyo said:

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Don’t be silly

The transition is done

We move into a 12 month “gradual implementation” phase at this point

That’s an irregular verb, isn’t it? They Brexit in name only, you have a transition period, we are in an implementation phase.

The referendum was to leave the EU. We left. Nothing in the referendum about what we do afterwards. We had a "transition period" where foaming-dog-fever Brexiteers could deny that they have won. We had a few fruitless "now look here" talks with the EU where they didn't for some reason cave in their long standing openly declared positions.

So now we move into the "implementation phase". This comes with Good News! Remember how they have spaffed large amounts of money up the wall warning people like me to prepare for potential post-transition disruption? Well good old Boris has triumphed! There will be no disruption! Because He has got the perfidious Europeans to back down and let us keep trading without delays and costs. Huzzah!

ydoethur said:

I am wondering however if it is any coincidence that Khan’s compensation package and Cummings’ departure have been announced on the same day.

The size of it is effectively an admission that she was treated not merely unfairly but illegally by Cummings. Given that’s twice he’s acted illegally and laws have been changed retrospectively to cover it, plus the fact all his ideas for actually governing have failed, it’s hard to see how he could have stayed.

Edit - I also wonder what he will do next. Who’s going to hire somebody with his very public track record?

Trump TV?

Calloo callay!
What a frabjous time for centrist Dads.

Corbyn suspended, Trump defeated, Corina vaccinated, and now Cummings resigns.

Apart from destroying confidence in lockdown rules and expensive employment disputes, what did he actually achieve?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mysticrose said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

A quick run through of Betfair prices.


Trump ECVs 210-239 1.16
Biden ECVs 300-329 1.15

Incredible!!!! The only way Biden won't finish on 306 is if you think c 20,000 votes in Georgia will be rejected. Not going to happen.

Hat tip. Thank you.

Those prices have actually lengthened overnight. Does someone worry that Georgia might end up with no ECVs if the recount goes on too long? Remember in Florida 2000 one Republican tactic was to delay the recounts and then argue there was no time left so the court had to decide. (Note I'm not saying this will happen; just trying to rationalise the prices having drifted.)

Its not just Georgia where that is (one of) the tactic(s). Same in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Stopping Biden reaching 270 is easier than Trump reaching 270 and has the same final outcome.

I would imagine most of the money backing legal challenges on Betfair is hoping rather than worrying this happens, with a big chunk of the rest people closing to free up funds and get rid of the uncertainty.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-legal-challenges-factbox/factbox-trump-lawsuits-seeks-to-stop-pennsylvania-michigan-from-certifying-biden-win-idUSKBN27S350

Scott_xP said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Hold on, are we missing a link here? The inquiry into who leaked the lockdown plans was said to have cleared prime suspect Matt Hancock and the other ministers and was moving on to officials. Since then, we have had two (or one and three quarter) resignations.

Explicitly cited in press reports this morning

Ah, I'd missed that. Still only 12 hours behind Fleet Street though.

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

A paper looking at what might have happened in the US with a mass screening program using an 80% specificity antigen test back in the summer.

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1326438745634185216

Nobody likes a smart arse.....

Sure.

Slovakia Says COVID Double-Testing Cut Number of Infections by More Than Half
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-09/slovakia-says-covid-double-testing-cut-number-of-infections-by-more-than-half

JACK_W said:

not_on_fire said:

CNN / NYT have called Arizona for Biden, finally

John McCain says "Arizona to Trump - You're fired"

Premature. Trump needs only 770% of the ballots still to be counted in Pennsylvania. And then to get the courts to overturn the results in two other states.

"Simples", as the slightly-behind-the-latest-catchphrase young people say.

Alistair said:

I'm not saying Unionist politicians in Scotland are not right in the head but currently on Scottish Twitter Jo Swinson is trending because Nicola Sturgeon celebrated Scotland qualifying for the Euros.

It's because last night Nicola Sturgeon re-tweeted the clip of her celebrating Jo Swinson's defeat. Although Sturgeon afterwards claimed she was cheering for Amy Callagham, the victor.

I was interested to note in the Guardian article that Ms Symonds was close to Lord Goldsmith.

Does anyone know if Boris is still taking violin lessons?

Scott_xP said:

I know it's a crappy tribute act, but BoZo and Dom did just enact the opening scene of The Thick of It

That's why you've gotta go

No

Yes

No

I've made the announcement

Say that you're jumping before you were pushed, although we're going to be briefing that you were pushed.

Sorry.

Wasn't that nicked from Yes Minister? "It's been announced, it's in the programme".

https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1327151948890578945

https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1327155985857863681

https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1327157728448491525

Gardenwalker said:

I was interested to note in the Guardian article that Ms Symonds was close to Lord Goldsmith.

Does anyone know if Boris is still taking violin lessons?

Lockdown rules appear to have clarified things. And changed the course of the Government.

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

WhisperingOracle said:

edmundintokyo said:

It's weird, it's like all the bullshit is finally winding down, yet somehow Brexit is still there.

There does seem to be various speculation of the Carrie group supporting extending the transition. That would be very good and sensible if true, and I'm sure Sunak would welcome it too, considering the still very dicey situation we're in socially, economically and health-wise.

Don’t be silly

The transition is done

We move into a 12 month “gradual implementation” phase at this point

That’s an irregular verb, isn’t it? They Brexit in name only, you have a transition period, we are in an implementation phase.

Gradual implementation of the Turkish conscript treatment.