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Cummings – the end of the line for his time at Number 10? – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    You are the type who would have been gagging to vote for Hitler , Pinochet and other such monsters.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    kle4 said:

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Terrifying thought. It was close in key states, it's true. I'd say hopefully his behaviour will put people off backing him 4 years from now but those still on side are probably on side for life.
    If the Republicans allow him to be their candidate again they’ll only have themselves to blame. Their problem at the moment is that the party itself is coming across as a threat to democracy. I can’t really see there being enough Q anon sympathisers out there to put them into an election winning position.
    Remember that Trump is up 9.6 million votes on 2016. It's a stunning result for a defeated first-term incumbent.

    Bush I only did a bit better with +11.5 million votes in 2004.

    FFS.

    HOW MANY TIMES does this need to be repeated? Comparing raw voter numbers in a rapidly growing population and with differentiated turnout is an absurdity. There are 100 million more voters since 1980.

    Kanye West polled more than George Washington. Want to build a fatuous thesis on that?

    Donald Trump has been one of the worst performing Republicans candidates in the last 50 years where there wasn't a serious third party contender. 1980 Ronald Reagan 50.7% 1984 Ronald Reagan 58.8% 1988 George Bush 53.4% 2000 George W. Bush 47.9% 2004 George W. Bush 50.7%

    Donald Trump's vote share will finish c. 47.5%. A liability.
  • Turns out there is recent precedent for former POTUSs (POTI?) to end up in court:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhYK_dTxAyw
  • I said the state school educated Mirza would be the next to go. She's the clear cultural outsider in the inbred network of poshos running the country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136
    edited November 2020
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    You are the type who would have been gagging to vote for Hitler , Pinochet and other such monsters.
    Hitler was a National Socialist, I could not possibly comment on the differences between that ideology and the Scottish National Party's
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    edited November 2020

    kle4 said:

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Terrifying thought. It was close in key states, it's true. I'd say hopefully his behaviour will put people off backing him 4 years from now but those still on side are probably on side for life.
    If the Republicans allow him to be their candidate again they’ll only have themselves to blame. Their problem at the moment is that the party itself is coming across as a threat to democracy. I can’t really see there being enough Q anon sympathisers out there to put them into an election winning position.
    Remember that Trump is up 9.6 million votes on 2016. It's a stunning result for a defeated first-term incumbent.

    Bush I only did a bit better with +11.5 million votes in 2004.

    If turnout among Independents, or moderate Republicans is a bit down then Trump would have a decent chance at winning the popular vote.

    He's winning the argument among his voters that he won and the Democrats stole the election.
    I mean Bush II here. Bush I lost loads of votes when losing in 1992, more than 9.7 million of them.

    If that had happened to Trump he really would be a busted flush now. But it didn't, so he isn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355
    edited November 2020

    BBC News - Covid: Level 4 lockdown 'possible' in west of Scotland
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54931544

    Fake news , it is a few areas in the overall vast area of the West of Scotland, and they are nearly central belt at that. Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire, cowboy country.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    You are the type who would have been gagging to vote for Hitler , Pinochet and other such monsters.
    Hitler was a National Socialist, I could not possibly comment on the differences between that ideology and the Scottish National Party's
    I'd be careful about raking up ancient history if I were you. In that war, the Tories had lied about the SNP Arthur Donaldson vbut he was released after a brief investigation. It was the TORY MP who got banged up for the duration of the war.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    I suspect if Trump runs again in 2024 he will lose by a wider margin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited November 2020

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    What's more striking is how many refused to transfer to either SNP or Labour. About a thousand Tories refused to support SKS's lot. But it's a local cooncil where (bizarrely) it is a SNP-Labour coalition i/c.
    Which partly explains it as Labour and the SNP are in alliance there anyway and the Union is not directly at stake, at Holyrood Labour form part of the Unionist opposition to the SNP with the Tories and the Union is at stake
    The Union is dying pal. Put it out of its misery.
    No thanks. Perhaps it's days are numbered, but we can fight to the end at least.
    Well as an Englishman I cannot "fight to save the Union". It has nothing to do with me.
    England isn't part of the Union?
    It's just the standard pretence that there's something odd about people within a Union being interested in another part of it. It's not obligatory by any means, plenty of people are't, but it's a bit strange that people try to pretend they think it really has nothing to do with them (rather than choosing not be interested in it, which is fair enough but not the same thing). We'll be pretending people in Greece being interested in what goes on in Germany is odd next, or that it would make no difference if 100% of English people supported the UK or 0% did. Tiresome fakery.

    There will be another vote at some point, though Boris will probably not act on it and the SNP can afford to wait it out. It may be a losing battle, and it is not worth any price, but I'll at least keep enouraging people to get support for the Union to increase in Scotland and England and Wales and NI. Any parts losing their support for it affects the other parts, and apathy is significant in itself.

    Pleasant afternoon's all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136

    kle4 said:

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Terrifying thought. It was close in key states, it's true. I'd say hopefully his behaviour will put people off backing him 4 years from now but those still on side are probably on side for life.
    If the Republicans allow him to be their candidate again they’ll only have themselves to blame. Their problem at the moment is that the party itself is coming across as a threat to democracy. I can’t really see there being enough Q anon sympathisers out there to put them into an election winning position.
    Remember that Trump is up 9.6 million votes on 2016. It's a stunning result for a defeated first-term incumbent.

    Bush I only did a bit better with +11.5 million votes in 2004.

    If turnout among Independents, or moderate Republicans is a bit down then Trump would have a decent chance at winning the popular vote.

    He's winning the argument among his voters that he won and the Democrats stole the election.
    I mean Bush II here. Bush I lost loads of votes when losing in 1992, more than 9.7 million of them.

    If that had happened to Trump he really would be a busted flush now. But it didn't, so he isn't.
    Bush 1 also won 53.4% of the vote in 1988 and Bush II 50.7% of the vote in 2004, Trump has never won a majority of the popular vote as they did
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    In other words, you'd vote for a decomposing murid in the Central Belt, rather than Labour? So much for tactical voting strategy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    You are the type who would have been gagging to vote for Hitler , Pinochet and other such monsters.
    Hitler was a National Socialist, I could not possibly comment on the differences between that ideology and the Scottish National Party's
    I see that you have at least learnt how the SNP is actually named.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    What's more striking is how many refused to transfer to either SNP or Labour. About a thousand Tories refused to support SKS's lot. But it's a local cooncil where (bizarrely) it is a SNP-Labour coalition i/c.
    Which partly explains it as Labour and the SNP are in alliance there anyway and the Union is not directly at stake, at Holyrood Labour form part of the Unionist opposition to the SNP with the Tories and the Union is at stake
    The Union is dying pal. Put it out of its misery.
    It isn't, indeed there is a swing to the Union on the latest poll.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1326879651973750788?s=20
    Strange, Wiki tells me this is the latest one.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1326987978724487168?s=20
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    malcolmg said:

    OllyT said:

    Mr. G, to be fair, some people are unable to wear them due to breathing difficulties and the like.

    How would that stop them wearing a visor though?
    If that bad then they should get someone to do their shopping / do it online. Just used as an excuse by ne'er do wells. They should at worst issue special medical cards , not some bit of tat you print off the web either, one with your fizzogg on it
    Agreed, I wouldn't mind people being "exempt" from covering their faces in shops and on public transport if I was "exempt" from catching anything off them.
  • If I was a Trump lawyer, I'd probably go to the wrong court too!

    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1327261631215251456?s=20
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    algarkirk said:

    There is a higher percentage of secondary school pupils testing positive for Covid-19 than any other age group, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.

    Based on a national survey, the ONS said an estimated 1.65% of Year 7 to Year 11 students tested positive on 6 November, compared to 1.05% for primary pupils.

    It comes as the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) examined more than a thousand outbreaks of coronavirus that have occurred since schools reopened in September.

    Reopening schools means children aged between 12 and 16 played a "significantly higher role" in spreading infections in households, the scientific advisors said.

    A lockdown with all schools open is neither a lockdown nor does it feel like one.

    I still feel this call has been substantially the correct one though. The 1.6% or so infection rate of 12-24 year olds isn't rabidly higher than the 1.1% or so in the older working age population. Add to that last week's analysis that teaching staff have an infection rate below 0.5%, well below the working age average across all levels of schooling and it seems clear enough to me. The amount of benefit of schooling vs home ed has been a large benefit, and the amount kids have acted as a reservoir into wider society has been relatively minor.

    That's not to say other things can't be done. I'd have been in favour of modestly longer holidays as pre-emptive circuit breakers (son's college had a remote week for exam retake week) without necessarily aligning the rest of society to that. I'm unhappy that the college is still timetabled round 90 minute lessons rather than 60s, and I don't quite know if ventilation is front and centre enough from the communications we get.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    4 dead persons voted in Georgia or so the White House claimed. Two been checked, first deceaseds wife used his voting slip instead of her own, she very upset about it, but only one vote recorded hers, another alleged person died in 2003, turns out the voter is a current live person with the identical name to the deceased. So no fraud in either case. More egg on face. Checking on the other two, and so it goes on, Georgia officals apparently not happy about the White House at all. How much longer can Trump keep this up without staging an attempted coup!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    What's more striking is how many refused to transfer to either SNP or Labour. About a thousand Tories refused to support SKS's lot. But it's a local cooncil where (bizarrely) it is a SNP-Labour coalition i/c.
    Which partly explains it as Labour and the SNP are in alliance there anyway and the Union is not directly at stake, at Holyrood Labour form part of the Unionist opposition to the SNP with the Tories and the Union is at stake
    The Union is dying pal. Put it out of its misery.
    It isn't, indeed there is a swing to the Union on the latest poll.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1326879651973750788?s=20
    Strange, Wiki tells me this is the latest one.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1326987978724487168?s=20
    That's right. 62% for Yes when one adds the DKs on the most approved principles. {Warning: do not try to do this at home.]
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    Is there a word for the psychological condition whereby people make increasingly extravagant and deranged claims about how they would vote in situations where they don't actually have a vote?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    What's more striking is how many refused to transfer to either SNP or Labour. About a thousand Tories refused to support SKS's lot. But it's a local cooncil where (bizarrely) it is a SNP-Labour coalition i/c.
    Which partly explains it as Labour and the SNP are in alliance there anyway and the Union is not directly at stake, at Holyrood Labour form part of the Unionist opposition to the SNP with the Tories and the Union is at stake
    The Union is dying pal. Put it out of its misery.
    It isn't, indeed there is a swing to the Union on the latest poll.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1326879651973750788?s=20
    Strange, Wiki tells me this is the latest one.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1326987978724487168?s=20
    Good old Borders and Shetland. Looks shaky even there though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    Is there a word for the psychological condition whereby people make increasingly extravagant and deranged claims about how they would vote in situations where they don't actually have a vote?
    PoliticalBettingDotCom
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    This thread is deceased, like certain sewer rats in Scotland.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    A mutated version of the coronavirus, dubbed D614G, is found in 85 per cent of global cases and researchers believe this version is so common because its genetic modification makes it more infectious and better at spreading.

    However, analysis from experts at the University of North Carolina found the change did not make it more deadly or likely to cause severe symptoms.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8945641/D614G-strain-coronavirus-better-infecting-human-cells-original-version.html

    The Daily Mail's medical advice is as useful as the Daily Expresses on the US election
    You are massively out of touch, as always Rog. In terms of COVID, the Mail have actually been doing a fairly good job of at least highlighting new research papers that are appearing on the academic preprint services. They aren't providing "advice", its awareness of the current state of the art in research and as I say not doing a bad job, in fact a lot better than most newspapers.

    But you just carry on being ignorant.
    You don't worry that the last time the Daily Mail got involved in the research of a vaccine it caused the reappearance of mumps measles and rubella with fatal results?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,698
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    You endorse this position?

    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1051588976870600705?s=21
  • This is how the last Republican president who lost an election reacted:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wumgEcIV5dY
  • kle4 said:

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Terrifying thought. It was close in key states, it's true. I'd say hopefully his behaviour will put people off backing him 4 years from now but those still on side are probably on side for life.
    If the Republicans allow him to be their candidate again they’ll only have themselves to blame. Their problem at the moment is that the party itself is coming across as a threat to democracy. I can’t really see there being enough Q anon sympathisers out there to put them into an election winning position.
    Remember that Trump is up 9.6 million votes on 2016. It's a stunning result for a defeated first-term incumbent.

    Bush I only did a bit better with +11.5 million votes in 2004.

    If turnout among Independents, or moderate Republicans is a bit down then Trump would have a decent chance at winning the popular vote.

    He's winning the argument among his voters that he won and the Democrats stole the election.
    I mean Bush II here. Bush I lost loads of votes when losing in 1992, more than 9.7 million of them.

    If that had happened to Trump he really would be a busted flush now. But it didn't, so he isn't.
    Trump is the only President to lose the popular vote TWICE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    You endorse this position?

    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1051588976870600705?s=21
    The SNP also support a United Ireland as well as an Independent Scotland, Galloway at least opposes the latter so my position stands if only the SNP or Galloway could win I would vote for Galloway
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,551
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    Is there a word for the psychological condition whereby people make increasingly extravagant and deranged claims about how they would vote in situations where they don't actually have a vote?
    PoliticalBettingDotCom
    It is an extension of the tendency to find that solving problems you don't personally face requires simple but radical action, all easily attainable with speed; while your actual problems are difficult, require time, should be approached cautiously and have no good outcomes.

    Religions are hot on this. They find it easier to tell others what to do about world hunger, war, climate change and the implementation of democracy than to agree about the 'Filioque' clause in the creed - a little matter that has been running for over 1500 years.



  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    UK has an order for 40 million...

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/pm-uk-will-be-ready-to-deliver-40-million-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-to-third-of-population/

    Can people please try and at least get their facts correct.
    Actually, after searching a bit more, I am a bit doubtful about that 40 million claim. Apparently it was said in a press conference. But can it be found in any authoritative source?

    Certainly the original order was for only 30 million:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

    (Edit: Reuters were still reporting 30m, not 40m, only yesterday. Did someone "misspeak" in the press conference, I wonder:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-supply-fa/factbox-eu-tries-to-catch-up-after-u-s-uk-spend-billions-to-secure-coronavirus-vaccines-idUKKBN27S2OS )
    Well Hancock will have misled the house, because he said 40 million in the HoC. And repeated this claim in many interviews. Seems unlikely.
    I think there was an additional 10m added to the original order.
    Any hard information on this would be welcome. Surely an additional 10 million doses can't have been ordered without some kind of announcement, but there seems to be no sign of it.
    It may just have been added quietly in September/October when Pfizer were selling it to anyone who would take it. I think that's when the EU put their deposit down too. I just take issue with people bandying the 300m figure about because 200m of them haven't got any delivery timeframe, anyone can order undated deliveries, it's not personal.

    The like for like comparison with the EU is 40m vs 100m, I've been told by an Italian who is in the Italian vaccine delivery taskforce that they've been told to expect 14m doses in H1 and there's no timeframe for their additional 28m they would be due under the scheme.

    Tbf, the EU have done well to secure 100m for 2021 delivery at such late notice, lots of other countries have missed out completey because the US has put suh a huge order in and Japan has a big 2021 order too.
    Thanks. Don't get me wrong - from a self-interested point of view I hope 40m is correct.

    Looking at the very low infection rates in the Pfizer trial, it's difficult to be optimistic about the timescale for results from the AstraZeneca trial.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,551
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    So Labour is the unpatriotic, anti-British party, unless you're in the Scottish central belt in which case they become the patriotic, pro-British choice?
    The Gretna Wormhole as it's known. It's magical properties enables the likes of HYUFD to develop a taste for United Ireland, Saddam luvvin' anti Zionists like Galloway.
    I would happily vote for Galloway over the SNP whose anti Union message I despise, in fact I would vote for a dead sewer rat over the SNP candidate
    You endorse this position?

    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1051588976870600705?s=21
    The SNP also support a United Ireland as well as an Independent Scotland, Galloway at least opposes the latter so my position stands if only the SNP or Galloway could win I would vote for Galloway
    As a supporter of a united Ireland and united Britain on what might be called geological grounds I am appalled to find that I agree with Galloway about something.

  • NEW THREAD

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    edited November 2020

    kle4 said:

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Terrifying thought. It was close in key states, it's true. I'd say hopefully his behaviour will put people off backing him 4 years from now but those still on side are probably on side for life.
    If the Republicans allow him to be their candidate again they’ll only have themselves to blame. Their problem at the moment is that the party itself is coming across as a threat to democracy. I can’t really see there being enough Q anon sympathisers out there to put them into an election winning position.
    Remember that Trump is up 9.6 million votes on 2016. It's a stunning result for a defeated first-term incumbent.

    Bush I only did a bit better with +11.5 million votes in 2004.

    FFS.

    HOW MANY TIMES does this need to be repeated? Comparing raw voter numbers in a rapidly growing population and with differentiated turnout is an absurdity. There are 100 million more voters since 1980.

    Kanye West polled more than George Washington. Want to build a fatuous thesis on that?

    Donald Trump has been one of the worst performing Republicans candidates in the last 50 years where there wasn't a serious third party contender. 1980 Ronald Reagan 50.7% 1984 Ronald Reagan 58.8% 1988 George Bush 53.4% 2000 George W. Bush 47.9% 2004 George W. Bush 50.7%

    Donald Trump's vote share will finish c. 47.5%. A liability.
    Bush I lost voters between 1988 and 1992. So did Carter between his contests. And Hoover. Obama lost 3.6 million votes from 2008 in 2012, even though the population was growing.

    It does signify something, obviously not everything, that Trump gained so many voters, even though he lost. Ignore it if you want, but don't be rude to me and come up with stupid comparisons.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    I suspect if Trump runs again in 2024 he will lose by a wider margin.

    I hope so. At this stage the more interesting question is whether there's any chance of him losing the Primary contest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,355
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    What's more striking is how many refused to transfer to either SNP or Labour. About a thousand Tories refused to support SKS's lot. But it's a local cooncil where (bizarrely) it is a SNP-Labour coalition i/c.
    Which partly explains it as Labour and the SNP are in alliance there anyway and the Union is not directly at stake, at Holyrood Labour form part of the Unionist opposition to the SNP with the Tories and the Union is at stake
    The Union is dying pal. Put it out of its misery.
    It isn't, indeed there is a swing to the Union on the latest poll.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1326879651973750788?s=20
    Strange, Wiki tells me this is the latest one.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1326987978724487168?s=20
    Good old Borders and Shetland. Looks shaky even there though.
    and another one comes out
    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    43m
    UK (Scotland), YouGov poll:

    Should Scotland be an independent country?

    Yes: 56% (+1)
    No: 44% (-1)

    +/- vs. 12-18 August 2020

    Fieldwork: 5-11 November 2020
    Sample size: 1,020
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    HYUFD said:

    It's looking good for Unionist tactical voting come next May.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1327249052178771970?s=20

    Actually there was clearly Tory tactical voting for Labour over SNP once you got to stage 5 on those numbers as well as for the Independent and some LD tactical voting at stage 3, so encouraging actually even if more of it is needed for Labour to beat the SNP in the central belt next year.

    The Greens did tactically vote for the SNP at stage 4 which really boosted the SNP vote but the Green vote is negligible under FPTP Holyrood or Westminster constituenices
    The SGP vote in Edinburgh Central handed the seat to Baroness Ruth in 2016.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    DavidL said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    TimT said:

    For those positing that Biden's win heralds a new era of Democratic dominance on the US political seen, some great* analysis here:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-defeated-trump-democrats-didn-t-win-mandate-they-ignore-ncna1247620

    Edit * = i.e. I agree with it

    Yeah Biden massively outperformed his party due, I guess, to his amazing personal qualities and matchless record in government.

    What an asset. What a candidate. Why didn;t he get the job sooner?
    5 million votes ahead of the incumbent. That's gotta hurt.
    5.4m now. More than the entire population of Scotland.
    WOW, given the shellacking the Dems got lower down the ticket, its almost a personality cult!

    Then again the barnstorming rallies gave us a clue. The masterful calling of lids on the day at 1pm.
    What are you rambling on about? Shellacking? In the national House vote DEMOCRATS are 2% ahead and rising.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    Do you have a link for that? I'm quite enjoying reading up the desperate flailing of the Trump campaign while waiting for my pupils to ask me questions via Teams.
    Can't find it now. It just came up on my phone. But I can give you context if you want to look for it.

    It originally came up on the Trump War Room twitter showing the obituary of the guy who had died and apparently voted and then again on Fox when interviewing Kayleigh Mcenany.
    Not sure how one could arrange this in practice but if the dead could vote I think we might get better electoral outcomes. They'd have a great sense of perspective and would be free of prejudice and narrow self-interest. Nothing I can prove (obviously) but it's surely likely that we'd see more Labour governments. And Leave would have had no chance of winning in 2016.
    I actually believe in future generations having a vote. Or at least their interests having to be taken into account.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    UK has an order for 40 million...

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/pm-uk-will-be-ready-to-deliver-40-million-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-to-third-of-population/

    Can people please try and at least get their facts correct.
    Actually, after searching a bit more, I am a bit doubtful about that 40 million claim. Apparently it was said in a press conference. But can it be found in any authoritative source?

    Certainly the original order was for only 30 million:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

    (Edit: Reuters were still reporting 30m, not 40m, only yesterday. Did someone "misspeak" in the press conference, I wonder:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-supply-fa/factbox-eu-tries-to-catch-up-after-u-s-uk-spend-billions-to-secure-coronavirus-vaccines-idUKKBN27S2OS )
    Whatever the numbers, I hope both the EU and the UK get enough doses to return to some kind of normality next year. Unfortunately, it looks like there won't be enough worldwide until 2022...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    TimT said:

    For those positing that Biden's win heralds a new era of Democratic dominance on the US political seen, some great* analysis here:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-defeated-trump-democrats-didn-t-win-mandate-they-ignore-ncna1247620

    Edit * = i.e. I agree with it

    Yeah Biden massively outperformed his party due, I guess, to his amazing personal qualities and matchless record in government.

    What an asset. What a candidate. Why didn;t he get the job sooner?
    5 million votes ahead of the incumbent. That's gotta hurt.
    5.4m now. More than the entire population of Scotland.
    WOW, given the shellacking the Dems got lower down the ticket, its almost a personality cult!

    Then again the barnstorming rallies gave us a clue. The masterful calling of lids on the day at 1pm.
    What are you rambling on about? Shellacking? In the national House vote DEMOCRATS are 2% ahead and rising.
    contrarian is working through his grief. This is part of his process.
This discussion has been closed.