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Cummings – the end of the line for his time at Number 10? – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    edited November 2020
    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    I liked the pivot someone made a few days ago complaining about how people would say there's no issues, to saying none that affected the result.

    Leaving aside that in a massive election some issues will crop up it is actually does matter how big an issue it was. We dont invalidate or rerun entire elections if one old biddy somehow voted twice. Any problem, especially intentional, is serious, but responses need to be proportionate.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    UK has an order for 40 million...

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/pm-uk-will-be-ready-to-deliver-40-million-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-to-third-of-population/

    Can people please try and at least get their facts correct.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    Haven't we had this story about Cummings leaving the Number Ten team before, several times?

    It's become one of those staple newspaper stories, like the Blair/Brown feud ones that were printed every Sunday in the Before Times, or the "worst week yet for this government" that have had to be lain aside now that it's too depressing because the consequences of government dysfunction have become too great.

    I'm sure we have several more iterations of this story to come.

    Sadly could be right. Even gone he might not really be gone, depending where he goes. It's one reason sticking by him so hard was silly as there be ways to get his advice.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    TimT said:

    For those positing that Biden's win heralds a new era of Democratic dominance on the US political seen, some great* analysis here:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-defeated-trump-democrats-didn-t-win-mandate-they-ignore-ncna1247620

    Edit * = i.e. I agree with it

    Yeah Biden massively outperformed his party due, I guess, to his amazing personal qualities and matchless record in government.

    What an asset. What a candidate. Why didn;t he get the job sooner?
    5 million votes ahead of the incumbent. That's gotta hurt.
    5.4m now. More than the entire population of Scotland.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited November 2020
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    It's 40m, 10m before the end of the year and 30m in Q1 2021.

    The EU order is structured as 100m in H1 2021 and then an option of 200m with an unspecified schedule.

    Of that 100m there are also direct deliveries from BioNTech to the German state so the rest of the EU will get proportionally less.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder if that was commissioned by Mrs Dominic Cummings, aka Mary Wakefield, Commissioning Editor of The Spectator....

    Mind you James Forsyth (Political Editor Spectator) won't have far to go for his scoops - he'll just have to ask his missus, Allegra Forsyth
    Rishi Sunak was also best man at Forsyth's wedding according to Ashcroft's new biography of him and Tatler

    https://www.tatler.com/article/spectator-magazine-social-web-links-to-tory-cabinet
    Friends at Winchester, init.
    Rishi would of course be the first Wykehamist PM though there have been 6 Chancellors from the school and one leader of the opposition, Gaitskill
    Depressing that we still have to keep score of old school ties in this day and age.
    No different to keeping track of Oxbridge college attended, of our postwar PMs 8 went to private schools, 11 went to Oxford
    Of course, it's very different. But it doesn't surprise me at all that you think otherwise.

    In fact if I ever agreed with you about anything, I would want to go back and check my reasoning severely.
    It isn't, most public schools have scholarships now and of course from 1964 to 1997 every PM went to a state grammar school, we have yet to have a PM solely educated at a comprehensive yet, though May partly attended a private school then a grammar which became a comp before she left.

    Indeed Hague and Ed Miliband are the only leaders of the opposition educated at comprehensives too
    What school people went to seems to be something of an obsession with you.

    Ditto my last few comments.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder if that was commissioned by Mrs Dominic Cummings, aka Mary Wakefield, Commissioning Editor of The Spectator....

    Mind you James Forsyth (Political Editor Spectator) won't have far to go for his scoops - he'll just have to ask his missus, Allegra Forsyth
    Rishi Sunak was also best man at Forsyth's wedding according to Ashcroft's new biography of him and Tatler

    https://www.tatler.com/article/spectator-magazine-social-web-links-to-tory-cabinet
    Friends at Winchester, init.
    Rishi would of course be the first Wykehamist PM though there have been 6 Chancellors from the school and one leader of the opposition, Gaitskill
    Depressing that we still have to keep score of old school ties in this day and age.
    No different to keeping track of Oxbridge college attended, of our postwar PMs 8 went to private schools, 11 went to Oxford
    Of course, it's very different. But it doesn't surprise me at all that you think otherwise.

    In fact if I ever agreed with you about anything, I would want to go back and check my reasoning severely.
    It isn't, most public schools have scholarships now and of course from 1964 to 1997 every PM went to a state grammar school, we have yet to have a PM solely educated at a comprehensive yet, though May partly attended a private school then a grammar which became a comp before she left.

    Indeed Hague and Ed Miliband are the only leaders of the opposition educated at comprehensives too
    What school people went to seems to be something of an obsession with you.

    Ditto my last few comments.
    It is for you too but on grounds of inverse snobbery
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020
  • FFS...

    A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

    The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

    The ONS said examples of such contact were hugging, shaking or holding hands or making contact when passing objects.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    It's 40m, 10m before the end of the year and 30m in Q1 2021.

    The EU order is structured as 100m in H1 2021 and then an option of 200m with an unspecified schedule.

    Of that 100m there are also direct deliveries from BioNTech to the German state so the rest of the EU will get proportionally less.
    Right you are. I must have missed the announcement of the extra 10m. So that does put us nearly on a par with the EU.

    (Edit: Having said "Right you are" on the basis of a gov.uk statement, I must say that 30m is stated in most of the news coverage of the Pfizer announcement. Perhaps 10m has been added in the last few days?)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    It's 40m, 10m before the end of the year and 30m in Q1 2021.

    The EU order is structured as 100m in H1 2021 and then an option of 200m with an unspecified schedule.

    Of that 100m there are also direct deliveries from BioNTech to the German state so the rest of the EU will get proportionally less.
    Well's thats naughty...Deutschland über allen....not really in the spirit of the EU.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    Do you have a link for that? I'm quite enjoying reading up the desperate flailing of the Trump campaign while waiting for my pupils to ask me questions via Teams.
    Can't find it now. It just came up on my phone. But I can give you context if you want to look for it.

    It originally came up on the Trump War Room twitter showing the obituary of the guy who had died and apparently voted and then again on Fox when interviewing Kayleigh Mcenany.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    TimT said:

    For those positing that Biden's win heralds a new era of Democratic dominance on the US political seen, some great* analysis here:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-defeated-trump-democrats-didn-t-win-mandate-they-ignore-ncna1247620

    Edit * = i.e. I agree with it

    It's clearly not Democratic dominance. To be honest I can't see how Biden will get anything through, particularly if the GA senate elections go GOP.
    And the senate's electoral bias toward the GOP is colossal - here's the 6 year 14 - 18 cycle of results

    2018 Senate Dem 52260651
    2016 Senate Dem 51496682
    2014 Senate Dem 20875493
    ------------------------
    124,632,826


    2018 Senate GOP 34723013
    2016 Senate GOP 40402790
    2014 Senate GOP 24631488
    ---------------------------
    99,757,291


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    It's 40m, 10m before the end of the year and 30m in Q1 2021.

    The EU order is structured as 100m in H1 2021 and then an option of 200m with an unspecified schedule.

    Of that 100m there are also direct deliveries from BioNTech to the German state so the rest of the EU will get proportionally less.
    It's really weird how these things work out....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies - UK R 'value falls to between 1 and 1.2'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder if that was commissioned by Mrs Dominic Cummings, aka Mary Wakefield, Commissioning Editor of The Spectator....

    Mind you James Forsyth (Political Editor Spectator) won't have far to go for his scoops - he'll just have to ask his missus, Allegra Forsyth
    Rishi Sunak was also best man at Forsyth's wedding according to Ashcroft's new biography of him and Tatler

    https://www.tatler.com/article/spectator-magazine-social-web-links-to-tory-cabinet
    Friends at Winchester, init.
    Rishi would of course be the first Wykehamist PM though there have been 6 Chancellors from the school and one leader of the opposition, Gaitskill
    Alas, it seems Henry Addington lived in vain.
    He did go there briefly as well as Reading School, you are right
    The advice he wrote to his adolescent son during his Premiership includes a fairly hilarious attempt at inclusivity, or at least what passed for it in 1803:

    '... but avoid exclusive connections, and never allow yourself to prefer the society of Wykehamists to that of persons, equally deserving, who were bred at Eton or Westminster.'
    Eton or Westminster ofcourse being the only 'in' institutions of the time. If the nineteenth century had belonged to Westminster instead of Eton, the country - and in deed the whole Empire - would have been a lot more Liberal and Whiggish - that was its appeal of the time, with seven Whig and Liberal prime ministers. However, the Victorian squalor of London soon overtook it, it became less popular with the aristocracy, and the country moved to a more rural-conservative locus of educational influence than the original metropolitan Liberals.
    Indeed, 20 PMs out of 55 went to Eton, 7 to Harrow and 6 to Westminster.

    However since WW2 of our PMs who went to public school 5 still went to Eton, Eden, Macmillan, Home, Cameron and Boris and 1 to Fettes, Blair, 1 to Haileybury, Attlee and 1 to Harrow, Churchill.

    Yet we have not had a Westminster PM since Earl Russell in the mid 19th century, though Clegg as Deputy PM did attend the school, as well as being the first Cambridge educated PM or Deputy PM since Baldwin


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
  • Will he leave in time to join the cast of a Christmas pantomime?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    DavidL said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    TimT said:

    For those positing that Biden's win heralds a new era of Democratic dominance on the US political seen, some great* analysis here:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-defeated-trump-democrats-didn-t-win-mandate-they-ignore-ncna1247620

    Edit * = i.e. I agree with it

    Yeah Biden massively outperformed his party due, I guess, to his amazing personal qualities and matchless record in government.

    What an asset. What a candidate. Why didn;t he get the job sooner?
    5 million votes ahead of the incumbent. That's gotta hurt.
    5.4m now. More than the entire population of Scotland.
    WOW, given the shellacking the Dems got lower down the ticket, its almost a personality cult!

    Then again the barnstorming rallies gave us a clue. The masterful calling of lids on the day at 1pm.
  • Will he leave in time to join the cast of a Christmas pantomime?

    No, as he has shut all the theatres on the say so of Prof Ferguson.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Will he leave in time to join the cast of a Christmas pantomime?

    No, as he has shut all the theatres on the say so of Prof Ferguson.
    Oh no he won't then.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    If Farage is as yesterday as Big G thinks, then Boris could do whatever he likes with the EU, right?

    Its not like labour are going to complain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020

    If Farage is as yesterday as Big G thinks, then Boris could do whatever he likes with the EU, right?

    Its not like labour are going to complain.
    I think his own party might though....and all those red wall voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    FFS...

    A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

    The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

    The ONS said examples of such contact were hugging, shaking or holding hands or making contact when passing objects.

    I did a proof for 3 days in the Lands Tribunal this week. We tried our best to keep socially distanced. Each witness had their own bundle of documents that no one else touched. The witness stand was wiped down and sterilised between each witness. Only 11 people were allowed in the fairly large court room at any one time. But inevitably bits of paper were passed about, especially between agents and counsel and between counsel. We both signed the joint minute for example.

    The Tribunal really tried its best but the reality is that there are a lot of things that it is not possible to do properly without some risk of Covid exposure. All you can do is mitigate the risk as well as you can, clean your hands regularly, wear masks in the public parts of the building and keep your distance as much as the occasion allowed.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder if that was commissioned by Mrs Dominic Cummings, aka Mary Wakefield, Commissioning Editor of The Spectator....

    Mind you James Forsyth (Political Editor Spectator) won't have far to go for his scoops - he'll just have to ask his missus, Allegra Forsyth
    Rishi Sunak was also best man at Forsyth's wedding according to Ashcroft's new biography of him and Tatler

    https://www.tatler.com/article/spectator-magazine-social-web-links-to-tory-cabinet
    Friends at Winchester, init.
    Rishi would of course be the first Wykehamist PM though there have been 6 Chancellors from the school and one leader of the opposition, Gaitskill
    Depressing that we still have to keep score of old school ties in this day and age.
    No different to keeping track of Oxbridge college attended, of our postwar PMs 8 went to private schools, 11 went to Oxford
    Of course, it's very different. But it doesn't surprise me at all that you think otherwise.

    In fact if I ever agreed with you about anything, I would want to go back and check my reasoning severely.
    It isn't, most public schools have scholarships now and of course from 1964 to 1997 every PM went to a state grammar school, we have yet to have a PM solely educated at a comprehensive yet, though May partly attended a private school then a grammar which became a comp before she left.

    Indeed Hague and Ed Miliband are the only leaders of the opposition educated at comprehensives too
    What school people went to seems to be something of an obsession with you.

    Ditto my last few comments.
    It is for you too but on grounds of inverse snobbery
    I can only bow to your superior knowledge of what goes on inside my head.

    As indeed to your superior knowledge of everything that has ever happened, is happening or is yet to happen in the world.

    Sorry - in the entire universe.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Never become the story Dom, youd think hed know that. Defied gravity quite awhile though.
    Interesting that, apparently, no one actually changed their minds. Just those who did not know who Cummings was/did not think they knew enough to comment suddenly found out who he was with a negative story.

    I can imagine the chart for 'do you have a positive or negative view of corona viruses?' would look quite similar, with the change point a bit earlier. A few scientific fans who find them interesting, a number of people linking them to common colds or just the word 'virus' and saying negative and most people shrugging.
  • There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
  • DDHQ have called every state but Georgia, I think since yesterday.

    290 Biden
    232 Trump

    https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/
  • kjh said:

    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    Do you have a link for that? I'm quite enjoying reading up the desperate flailing of the Trump campaign while waiting for my pupils to ask me questions via Teams.
    Can't find it now. It just came up on my phone. But I can give you context if you want to look for it.

    It originally came up on the Trump War Room twitter showing the obituary of the guy who had died and apparently voted and then again on Fox when interviewing Kayleigh Mcenany.
    This was the first link that came up when I searched: I wouldn't normally link to them but no one is going to claim that they are left wing...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8944073/94-year-old-widow-reveals-cast-one-ballots-Trump-claimed-cast-dead-voter.html
  • DavidL said:

    FFS...

    A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

    The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

    The ONS said examples of such contact were hugging, shaking or holding hands or making contact when passing objects.

    I did a proof for 3 days in the Lands Tribunal this week. We tried our best to keep socially distanced. Each witness had their own bundle of documents that no one else touched. The witness stand was wiped down and sterilised between each witness. Only 11 people were allowed in the fairly large court room at any one time. But inevitably bits of paper were passed about, especially between agents and counsel and between counsel. We both signed the joint minute for example.

    The Tribunal really tried its best but the reality is that there are a lot of things that it is not possible to do properly without some risk of Covid exposure. All you can do is mitigate the risk as well as you can, clean your hands regularly, wear masks in the public parts of the building and keep your distance as much as the occasion allowed.
    As far as I read it, this survey is (as least as reported) solely related socializing indoors, not work. Nobody should be doing any of that during a lockdown.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020

    There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
    Old news? You mean as in just released by the ONS a few minutes ago. It is the most reliable handle we have on the situation (even if it is backward looking by one week). Thus I wouldn't call it old news at all. You might say new things haven't filtered through yet, but all we can do is go on the data available.
  • Will he leave in time to join the cast of a Christmas pantomime?

    Oh no he won't...
  • I think we should all applaud the personal sacrifices that the Lozzinator has made for his principles.

    https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1327225035371720704?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    DavidL said:

    FFS...

    A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

    The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

    The ONS said examples of such contact were hugging, shaking or holding hands or making contact when passing objects.

    I did a proof for 3 days in the Lands Tribunal this week. We tried our best to keep socially distanced. Each witness had their own bundle of documents that no one else touched. The witness stand was wiped down and sterilised between each witness. Only 11 people were allowed in the fairly large court room at any one time. But inevitably bits of paper were passed about, especially between agents and counsel and between counsel. We both signed the joint minute for example.

    The Tribunal really tried its best but the reality is that there are a lot of things that it is not possible to do properly without some risk of Covid exposure. All you can do is mitigate the risk as well as you can, clean your hands regularly, wear masks in the public parts of the building and keep your distance as much as the occasion allowed.
    It is impossible to serve a customer in a shop who won't follow the guidelines.
    It simply can't be done.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder if that was commissioned by Mrs Dominic Cummings, aka Mary Wakefield, Commissioning Editor of The Spectator....

    Mind you James Forsyth (Political Editor Spectator) won't have far to go for his scoops - he'll just have to ask his missus, Allegra Forsyth
    Rishi Sunak was also best man at Forsyth's wedding according to Ashcroft's new biography of him and Tatler

    https://www.tatler.com/article/spectator-magazine-social-web-links-to-tory-cabinet
    Friends at Winchester, init.
    Rishi would of course be the first Wykehamist PM though there have been 6 Chancellors from the school and one leader of the opposition, Gaitskill
    Depressing that we still have to keep score of old school ties in this day and age.
    No different to keeping track of Oxbridge college attended, of our postwar PMs 8 went to private schools, 11 went to Oxford
    You have no idea how pathetic it sounds to the rest of the country to keep score of Oxbridge and schools PM stats. The only thing interesting was that Rutlish didnt get a mention, I wonder why.....
  • HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Robots to take on more supermarket tasks

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54902518

    And UBI funded by a robot tax becomes more likely therefore
    What's with the hypothecation? If robotization is a profitable thing for companies to do why not let them just do it, and reap the benefits via general corporation tax, rather than invent a new tax tending to discourage it?
    It may well be a profitable thing for companies but if it leads to higher unemployment that comes with social costs and obviously a robot tax will have to be imposed on them to pay for the increased welfare costs of increased automation and use of robots.

    Corporation tax however should not be increased unfairly on companies who increase profitability without replacing workers with robots
    You state the orthodox Marxist-Leninist position with admirable clarity. I am just mildly surprised to hear it coming from you.
    It is not Marxist, I am not advocating state ownership of all industry, however I am also not a pure free trader either, especially if the cost is rising unemployment
    Outrageous. What kind of Tory are you?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    edited November 2020

    Will he leave in time to join the cast of a Christmas pantomime?

    Oh no he won't...
    'Look out, your career's behind you'
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    The Welsh firebreak looks to have done the trick. New cases falling. Very good news. Still suspect Drakeford should have acted earlier. Should see similar results for England in a few weeks time hopefully.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Are there any other red/blue switchers in the senate other than

    Manchin, Tester

    Collins ?

    Right now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    Do you have a link for that? I'm quite enjoying reading up the desperate flailing of the Trump campaign while waiting for my pupils to ask me questions via Teams.
    Can't find it now. It just came up on my phone. But I can give you context if you want to look for it.

    It originally came up on the Trump War Room twitter showing the obituary of the guy who had died and apparently voted and then again on Fox when interviewing Kayleigh Mcenany.
    Not sure how one could arrange this in practice but if the dead could vote I think we might get better electoral outcomes. They'd have a great sense of perspective and would be free of prejudice and narrow self-interest. Nothing I can prove (obviously) but it's surely likely that we'd see more Labour governments. And Leave would have had no chance of winning in 2016.
  • At least 2,500 mink are set to be culled in Greece after coronavirus was found in two farms there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited November 2020
    Collins - Gideon must be the biggest polling failure ever for a senate race
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/me/maine_senate_collins_vs_gideon-6928.html
  • dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    FFS...

    A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

    The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

    The ONS said examples of such contact were hugging, shaking or holding hands or making contact when passing objects.

    I did a proof for 3 days in the Lands Tribunal this week. We tried our best to keep socially distanced. Each witness had their own bundle of documents that no one else touched. The witness stand was wiped down and sterilised between each witness. Only 11 people were allowed in the fairly large court room at any one time. But inevitably bits of paper were passed about, especially between agents and counsel and between counsel. We both signed the joint minute for example.

    The Tribunal really tried its best but the reality is that there are a lot of things that it is not possible to do properly without some risk of Covid exposure. All you can do is mitigate the risk as well as you can, clean your hands regularly, wear masks in the public parts of the building and keep your distance as much as the occasion allowed.
    It is impossible to serve a customer in a shop who won't follow the guidelines.
    It simply can't be done.
    I'm fairly sure the woman who served me this morning was wearing her disposable mask upside down (not inside out, but with the stiffish band at the bottom instead of the top). Whether it matters...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Sounds about right , small clean up of stables before trying to find the horse that has bolted.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    DavidL said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    TimT said:

    For those positing that Biden's win heralds a new era of Democratic dominance on the US political seen, some great* analysis here:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-defeated-trump-democrats-didn-t-win-mandate-they-ignore-ncna1247620

    Edit * = i.e. I agree with it

    Yeah Biden massively outperformed his party due, I guess, to his amazing personal qualities and matchless record in government.

    What an asset. What a candidate. Why didn;t he get the job sooner?
    5 million votes ahead of the incumbent. That's gotta hurt.
    5.4m now. More than the entire population of Scotland.
    WOW, given the shellacking the Dems got lower down the ticket, its almost a personality cult!

    Then again the barnstorming rallies gave us a clue. The masterful calling of lids on the day at 1pm.
    The rallies were irrelevant to the final result, as they often are. It's entirely possible to despise Democratic 'progressives' - I certainly do - and recognize that Biden beat Trump soundly in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Reality is still a thing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    FFS...

    A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

    The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

    The ONS said examples of such contact were hugging, shaking or holding hands or making contact when passing objects.

    I did a proof for 3 days in the Lands Tribunal this week. We tried our best to keep socially distanced. Each witness had their own bundle of documents that no one else touched. The witness stand was wiped down and sterilised between each witness. Only 11 people were allowed in the fairly large court room at any one time. But inevitably bits of paper were passed about, especially between agents and counsel and between counsel. We both signed the joint minute for example.

    The Tribunal really tried its best but the reality is that there are a lot of things that it is not possible to do properly without some risk of Covid exposure. All you can do is mitigate the risk as well as you can, clean your hands regularly, wear masks in the public parts of the building and keep your distance as much as the occasion allowed.
    It is impossible to serve a customer in a shop who won't follow the guidelines.
    It simply can't be done.
    In a shop it should be simple , no mask , kick them out by the breeks arse
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224

    Will he leave in time to join the cast of a Christmas pantomime?

    Oh no he won't...
    'Look out, your career's behind you'
    It's well known. No less a person than Enoch P summed it up. Every SPAD's career ends in abject failure and humiliation followed by years of blogging frantically into the void.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited November 2020

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    UK has an order for 40 million...

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/pm-uk-will-be-ready-to-deliver-40-million-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-to-third-of-population/

    Can people please try and at least get their facts correct.
    Actually, after searching a bit more, I am a bit doubtful about that 40 million claim. Apparently it was said in a press conference. But can it be found in any authoritative source?

    Certainly the original order was for only 30 million:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

    (Edit: Reuters were still reporting 30m, not 40m, only yesterday. Did someone "misspeak" in the press conference, I wonder:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-supply-fa/factbox-eu-tries-to-catch-up-after-u-s-uk-spend-billions-to-secure-coronavirus-vaccines-idUKKBN27S2OS )
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    If Farage is as yesterday as Big G thinks, then Boris could do whatever he likes with the EU, right?

    Its not like labour are going to complain.
    BigG is wrong. Farage wont have the same impact as before, but that doesn't mean he cannot hurt Boris
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    Do you have a link for that? I'm quite enjoying reading up the desperate flailing of the Trump campaign while waiting for my pupils to ask me questions via Teams.
    Can't find it now. It just came up on my phone. But I can give you context if you want to look for it.

    It originally came up on the Trump War Room twitter showing the obituary of the guy who had died and apparently voted and then again on Fox when interviewing Kayleigh Mcenany.
    This was the first link that came up when I searched: I wouldn't normally link to them but no one is going to claim that they are left wing...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8944073/94-year-old-widow-reveals-cast-one-ballots-Trump-claimed-cast-dead-voter.html
    Interesting, so she registered/voted under her husband's name, taking the archaic Mrs [Husband's first and surnames]. That could potentially explain several of the 'dead' voters. so James Blalock did indeed vote and James Blalock is indeed dead, but it's Mrs James Blalock who voted and Mr James Blalock who is dead.
  • HYUFD said:
    That rather implies a concession (as did the Melania Christmas tweet someone posted earlier) so with a bit of luck Betfair might settle before Easter.

    My bank has just texted to warn me I am overdrawn, and Betfair has sent an email that I am depositing too often. I blame Ivanka.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Robots to take on more supermarket tasks

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54902518

    And UBI funded by a robot tax becomes more likely therefore
    What's with the hypothecation? If robotization is a profitable thing for companies to do why not let them just do it, and reap the benefits via general corporation tax, rather than invent a new tax tending to discourage it?
    It may well be a profitable thing for companies but if it leads to higher unemployment that comes with social costs and obviously a robot tax will have to be imposed on them to pay for the increased welfare costs of increased automation and use of robots.

    Corporation tax however should not be increased unfairly on companies who increase profitability without replacing workers with robots
    You state the orthodox Marxist-Leninist position with admirable clarity. I am just mildly surprised to hear it coming from you.
    It is not Marxist, I am not advocating state ownership of all industry, however I am also not a pure free trader either, especially if the cost is rising unemployment
    Outrageous. What kind of Tory are you?
    A traditional one ie a believer in the monarchy, the Union and the Anglican Church, the Liberals have historically been the party closest to free trade, the Tories have historically alternated between free trade and protectionism, as Trump has showed too conservatism does not automatically mean free trade.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    HYUFD said:
    That's great news for the Democrats in 2022 I think
  • HYUFD said:
    A feeling of some sanity returning. Now we all need is confirmation of an amended Brexit implementation period, or preferably one that goes on forever..
  • Mr. G, to be fair, some people are unable to wear them due to breathing difficulties and the like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited November 2020

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder if that was commissioned by Mrs Dominic Cummings, aka Mary Wakefield, Commissioning Editor of The Spectator....

    Mind you James Forsyth (Political Editor Spectator) won't have far to go for his scoops - he'll just have to ask his missus, Allegra Forsyth
    Rishi Sunak was also best man at Forsyth's wedding according to Ashcroft's new biography of him and Tatler

    https://www.tatler.com/article/spectator-magazine-social-web-links-to-tory-cabinet
    Friends at Winchester, init.
    Rishi would of course be the first Wykehamist PM though there have been 6 Chancellors from the school and one leader of the opposition, Gaitskill
    Depressing that we still have to keep score of old school ties in this day and age.
    No different to keeping track of Oxbridge college attended, of our postwar PMs 8 went to private schools, 11 went to Oxford
    You have no idea how pathetic it sounds to the rest of the country to keep score of Oxbridge and schools PM stats. The only thing interesting was that Rutlish didnt get a mention, I wonder why.....
    Rutlish was a grammar, I mentioned our grammar school educated PMs earlier
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    That's great news for the Democrats in 2022 I think
    Depends on the Biden administration's approval ratings at the time
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    edited November 2020
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I wonder if that was commissioned by Mrs Dominic Cummings, aka Mary Wakefield, Commissioning Editor of The Spectator....

    Mind you James Forsyth (Political Editor Spectator) won't have far to go for his scoops - he'll just have to ask his missus, Allegra Forsyth
    Rishi Sunak was also best man at Forsyth's wedding according to Ashcroft's new biography of him and Tatler

    https://www.tatler.com/article/spectator-magazine-social-web-links-to-tory-cabinet
    Friends at Winchester, init.
    Rishi would of course be the first Wykehamist PM though there have been 6 Chancellors from the school and one leader of the opposition, Gaitskill
    Depressing that we still have to keep score of old school ties in this day and age.
    Getting likew the Bear in Oxford, this website is ...

    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/375276581421865554/
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited November 2020
    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    Do you have a link for that? I'm quite enjoying reading up the desperate flailing of the Trump campaign while waiting for my pupils to ask me questions via Teams.
    Can't find it now. It just came up on my phone. But I can give you context if you want to look for it.

    It originally came up on the Trump War Room twitter showing the obituary of the guy who had died and apparently voted and then again on Fox when interviewing Kayleigh Mcenany.
    This was the first link that came up when I searched: I wouldn't normally link to them but no one is going to claim that they are left wing...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8944073/94-year-old-widow-reveals-cast-one-ballots-Trump-claimed-cast-dead-voter.html
    Interesting, so she registered/voted under her husband's name, taking the archaic Mrs [Husband's first and surnames]. That could potentially explain several of the 'dead' voters. so James Blalock did indeed vote and James Blalock is indeed dead, but it's Mrs James Blalock who voted and Mr James Blalock who is dead.
    Yes: no fraud at all in this case, intentional or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    HYUFD said:
    Hed probably love being Leader of the Opposition in a Westminster system, getting to just tell at the government leader every week about how crap they are.

    Sure he can still do that, but not from an official position and it's not as satisfying if the opponent doesn't have to answer back.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Robots to take on more supermarket tasks

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54902518

    And UBI funded by a robot tax becomes more likely therefore
    What's with the hypothecation? If robotization is a profitable thing for companies to do why not let them just do it, and reap the benefits via general corporation tax, rather than invent a new tax tending to discourage it?
    It may well be a profitable thing for companies but if it leads to higher unemployment that comes with social costs and obviously a robot tax will have to be imposed on them to pay for the increased welfare costs of increased automation and use of robots.

    Corporation tax however should not be increased unfairly on companies who increase profitability without replacing workers with robots
    You state the orthodox Marxist-Leninist position with admirable clarity. I am just mildly surprised to hear it coming from you.
    It is not Marxist, I am not advocating state ownership of all industry, however I am also not a pure free trader either, especially if the cost is rising unemployment
    Outrageous. What kind of Tory are you?
    A traditional one ie a believer in the monarchy, the Union and the Anglican Church, the Liberals have historically been the party closest to free trade, the Tories have historically alternated between free trade and protectionism, as Trump has showed too conservatism does not automatically mean free trade.
    He means, a lackey of Henry VIII. Who had robust views on all three.
  • There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
    Old news? You mean as in just released by the ONS a few minutes ago. It is the most reliable handle we have on the situation (even if it is backward looking by one week). Thus I wouldn't call it old news at all. You might say new things haven't filtered through yet, but all we can do is go on the data available.
    It's old news in the sense that, as you say, it's a lagging indicator. And you are ignoring additional data that we have to go on, which is the more current (though, of course less accurate) case data.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hed probably love being Leader of the Opposition in a Westminster system, getting to just tell at the government leader every week about how crap they are.

    Sure he can still do that, but not from an official position and it's not as satisfying if the opponent doesn't have to answer back.
    We will never be free of this odious man?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hed probably love being Leader of the Opposition in a Westminster system, getting to just tell at the government leader every week about how crap they are.

    Sure he can still do that, but not from an official position and it's not as satisfying if the opponent doesn't have to answer back.
    Trump also gets to do that tweeting from his huge estate in sunny Florida, not a wet Westminster in November
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Scott_xP said:
    Hopeless case, chance of invoices not being paid, likely losing Democrat clients too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    UK has an order for 40 million...

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/pm-uk-will-be-ready-to-deliver-40-million-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-to-third-of-population/

    Can people please try and at least get their facts correct.
    Actually, after searching a bit more, I am a bit doubtful about that 40 million claim. Apparently it was said in a press conference. But can it be found in any authoritative source?

    Certainly the original order was for only 30 million:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

    (Edit: Reuters were still reporting 30m, not 40m, only yesterday. Did someone "misspeak" in the press conference, I wonder:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-supply-fa/factbox-eu-tries-to-catch-up-after-u-s-uk-spend-billions-to-secure-coronavirus-vaccines-idUKKBN27S2OS )
    Well Hancock will have misled the house, because he said 40 million in the HoC. And repeated this claim in many interviews. Seems unlikely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020

    There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
    Old news? You mean as in just released by the ONS a few minutes ago. It is the most reliable handle we have on the situation (even if it is backward looking by one week). Thus I wouldn't call it old news at all. You might say new things haven't filtered through yet, but all we can do is go on the data available.
    It's old news in the sense that, as you say, it's a lagging indicator. And you are ignoring additional data that we have to go on, which is the more current (though, of course less accurate) case data.
    We were informed by the data scrapers on here that when taking into charting by the testing dates, case numbers are flat (even taking into consideration the big headline figure announced yesterday).
  • Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited November 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hopeless case, chance of invoices not being paid, likely losing Democrat clients too.
    It's beginning to look over, isn't it. What a relief if so.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited November 2020

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Unless BIden is aware that he can't govern in the Clinton mould, he could do - if he's not in jail.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Terrifying thought. It was close in key states, it's true. I'd say hopefully his behaviour will put people off backing him 4 years from now but those still on side are probably on side for life.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    rkrkrk said:

    The Welsh firebreak looks to have done the trick. New cases falling. Very good news. Still suspect Drakeford should have acted earlier. Should see similar results for England in a few weeks time hopefully.

    Sounds good, but what happens now with much freer restrictions in place, and huge areas with very high rates?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    You'd have to hope millions of Americans can realise they've been literally brainwashed and can deprogram a bit over the next 4 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    At what point does Trump pull the 'I could win a legal fight easily but it's not worth my time' gambit
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020

    rkrkrk said:

    The Welsh firebreak looks to have done the trick. New cases falling. Very good news. Still suspect Drakeford should have acted earlier. Should see similar results for England in a few weeks time hopefully.

    Sounds good, but what happens now with much freer restrictions in place, and huge areas with very high rates?
    Its a good job that students won't all be allowed out to pubs, restaurants, etc, 3 weeks before they are then going to go home....on wait.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Chris said:
    To the extent that the "coup" is off, yes, but the extent to which a Republican Senate will cooperate on Cabinet appointments, etc, must still be doubtful, as I doubt that Trump will concede in substance.

    This sets up a Mitch McConnell vs Joe Biden showdown, and Biden gets to be the sprightly youngster this time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    FFS...

    A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

    The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

    The ONS said examples of such contact were hugging, shaking or holding hands or making contact when passing objects.

    I did a proof for 3 days in the Lands Tribunal this week. We tried our best to keep socially distanced. Each witness had their own bundle of documents that no one else touched. The witness stand was wiped down and sterilised between each witness. Only 11 people were allowed in the fairly large court room at any one time. But inevitably bits of paper were passed about, especially between agents and counsel and between counsel. We both signed the joint minute for example.

    The Tribunal really tried its best but the reality is that there are a lot of things that it is not possible to do properly without some risk of Covid exposure. All you can do is mitigate the risk as well as you can, clean your hands regularly, wear masks in the public parts of the building and keep your distance as much as the occasion allowed.
    It is impossible to serve a customer in a shop who won't follow the guidelines.
    It simply can't be done.
    In a shop it should be simple , no mask , kick them out by the breeks arse
    Indeed. But it is management who set the rules. And they don't do the serving.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Unless BIden is aware that he can't govern in the Clinton mould, he could do - if he's not in jail.
    I don't think he will go to jail. I suspect one of the main reasons for his actions is to make it politically toxic for Biden to pursue criminal charges. I'm sure a word will be had with the SDNY Prosecutor of not to go there.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Mr. G, to be fair, some people are unable to wear them due to breathing difficulties and the like.

    How would that stop them wearing a visor though?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited November 2020

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of Wellcome and a key member of the Sage group of government scientific advisers....

    "What’s important at the moment is that countries don’t get fixed on only going to be delivering this one vaccine, because because they are all still in developments. We will learn other things, I believe in the next month of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine, probably the Moderna vaccine, maybe other vaccines that we’ll learn the results of including from China, between now and the end of the year."

    Interesting that he seems more confident of results from AstraZeneca in the next month than from Moderna (which the UK doesn't have a order for). I hope that is based on information about the number of infections so far. I would have feared that in the UK we should have to wait for Johnson and Johnson to supplement our meagre order of Pfizer, before AstraZeneca came through.
    "meagre"..you mean the order that can do a 1/3 of the population in the next few months. The EU don't have any more per capita.

    Lots of criticize the government over COVID, but doing deals on vaccines and ramping up the building of the production facilities aren't one.
    The EU have yet to order any of the Pfizer vaccine, because the EMA is still checking it out - they appear to be a bit slow....nowt to do with the move from London, I'm sure.

    Meanwhile testing in France is running at around half the rate of the UK....

    Everyone's struggling, but the idea that we'd have been better off following EU procurement is for the birds.
    I know what you are saying, but they have secured an order.

    The European Union has agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the BioNTech-Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, after it showed strong results in trials. Deliveries are expected to start by the end of this year, the companies said. But the EU refused to provide details on how the vaccine would be rolled out, insisting that "a number of steps" needed to be followed beforehand.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54902056

    I can only imagine the paperwork.
    Enough for a third of the population of the EU, compared with our order of 30 million doses, enough for about 23% of our population.
    UK has an order for 40 million...

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/pm-uk-will-be-ready-to-deliver-40-million-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-to-third-of-population/

    Can people please try and at least get their facts correct.
    Actually, after searching a bit more, I am a bit doubtful about that 40 million claim. Apparently it was said in a press conference. But can it be found in any authoritative source?

    Certainly the original order was for only 30 million:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

    (Edit: Reuters were still reporting 30m, not 40m, only yesterday. Did someone "misspeak" in the press conference, I wonder:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-supply-fa/factbox-eu-tries-to-catch-up-after-u-s-uk-spend-billions-to-secure-coronavirus-vaccines-idUKKBN27S2OS )
    Well Hancock will have misled the house, because he said 40 million in the HoC. And repeated this claim in many interviews. Seems unlikely.
    Maybe it was a secret then.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    ydoethur said:



    Actually nothing I can think of over the past four years.

    I think you’re generous, I can go back 20. Two days and one slogan on the NE Assembly referendum subsequently spun as a single handed defeat of Tony Blair, a series of education reforms that have had the opposite effects to the ones intended and a slogan on the side of a bus that was based on a simple lie. In business, a string of bankruptcies. Plus we have Khan and Barnard Castle.

    Not an encouraging CV.

    The ruling class failing upwards.
  • There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
    Old news? You mean as in just released by the ONS a few minutes ago. It is the most reliable handle we have on the situation (even if it is backward looking by one week). Thus I wouldn't call it old news at all. You might say new things haven't filtered through yet, but all we can do is go on the data available.
    It's old news in the sense that, as you say, it's a lagging indicator. And you are ignoring additional data that we have to go on, which is the more current (though, of course less accurate) case data.
    We were informed by the data scrapers on here that when taking into charting by the testing dates, case numbers are flat (even taking into consideration the big headline figure announced yesterday).
    Well I'd say that the figure announced yesterday is an indication that cases are indeed beginning to rise again after a period of stability. We'll see if I'm right over the next few days.
  • There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
    Old news? You mean as in just released by the ONS a few minutes ago. It is the most reliable handle we have on the situation (even if it is backward looking by one week). Thus I wouldn't call it old news at all. You might say new things haven't filtered through yet, but all we can do is go on the data available.
    It's old news in the sense that, as you say, it's a lagging indicator. And you are ignoring additional data that we have to go on, which is the more current (though, of course less accurate) case data.
    We were informed by the data scrapers on here that when taking into charting by the testing dates, case numbers are flat (even taking into consideration the big headline figure announced yesterday).
    Well I'd say that the figure announced yesterday is an indication that cases are indeed beginning to rise again after a period of stability. We'll see if I'm right over the next few days.
    Off to Conservative Home for you....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    I see there was discussion on here about dead people voting via their widow/widower and the lawyers bringing forward cases.

    Apart from the fact that these could never amount to more than a very small handful and could go in either direction it appears that the one brought forward as evidence was actually very much alive and kicking.

    The Trumpers assumed it was the dead husband who had voted when it was actually his 94 year old widow which presumably was pretty easy to prove because James and Agnus are clearly different names. Do they not check these things first?

    This really is desperate stuff.

    Do you have a link for that? I'm quite enjoying reading up the desperate flailing of the Trump campaign while waiting for my pupils to ask me questions via Teams.
    Can't find it now. It just came up on my phone. But I can give you context if you want to look for it.

    It originally came up on the Trump War Room twitter showing the obituary of the guy who had died and apparently voted and then again on Fox when interviewing Kayleigh Mcenany.
    This was the first link that came up when I searched: I wouldn't normally link to them but no one is going to claim that they are left wing...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8944073/94-year-old-widow-reveals-cast-one-ballots-Trump-claimed-cast-dead-voter.html
    Interesting, so she registered/voted under her husband's name, taking the archaic Mrs [Husband's first and surnames]. That could potentially explain several of the 'dead' voters. so James Blalock did indeed vote and James Blalock is indeed dead, but it's Mrs James Blalock who voted and Mr James Blalock who is dead.
    Do find that somewhat creepy though. Like you somehow become the husband on marriage. Subsuming one's identity into another...
    Strange.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hopeless case, chance of invoices not being paid, likely losing Democrat clients too.
    It's beginning to look over, isn't it. What a relief if so.
    A smidgen of Betfair reaction. 1.08 now. I will refrain from predicting an imminent collapse in the Trump price since I've done that many times before and been wrong.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ALASKA UPDATE

    Biden continues to get more than 60% of the mail ballot! Much higher than I thought.

    However he now needs more votes than their are ballots left to count.

    I am tentatively calling Alaska for Trump.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
    Old news? You mean as in just released by the ONS a few minutes ago. It is the most reliable handle we have on the situation (even if it is backward looking by one week). Thus I wouldn't call it old news at all. You might say new things haven't filtered through yet, but all we can do is go on the data available.
    It's old news in the sense that, as you say, it's a lagging indicator. And you are ignoring additional data that we have to go on, which is the more current (though, of course less accurate) case data.
    We were informed by the data scrapers on here that when taking into charting by the testing dates, case numbers are flat (even taking into consideration the big headline figure announced yesterday).
    They are rising slowly - which corresponds to the R number being in the range 1.1 - 1.3
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MrEd said:

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Unless BIden is aware that he can't govern in the Clinton mould, he could do - if he's not in jail.
    I don't think he will go to jail. I suspect one of the main reasons for his actions is to make it politically toxic for Biden to pursue criminal charges. I'm sure a word will be had with the SDNY Prosecutor of not to go there.
    Still leaves the New York A-G, appointed by the state assembly, and the Manhattan DA, elected by popular vote, in play. Biden might or might not “have a word” with them but he has no leverage over them at all.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019


    But given that we were going ahead with Brexit, Theresa May's deal was the least worst outcome. It protected our trade deals, protected the United Kingdom and protected the Northern Ireland peace process.

    Only if you buy into the Lancaster House bollocks.

    Otherwise Norway for Now (at least 10 years) was the best option. Respect the idiot referendum, don't torpedo trade arrangements or peace in NI, stability for businesses, a chance to observe the EU direction of travel and our own diminished influence for a decade, and make a decision on that basis (rejoin, stay in EEA, exit to Cummings/Farage/Hannan fairyland).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    A traditional one ie a believer in the monarchy, the Union and the Anglican Church, the Liberals have historically been the party closest to free trade, the Tories have historically alternated between free trade and protectionism, as Trump has showed too conservatism does not automatically mean free trade.

    Sadly you are going to have to add "anti-EU/plough sole furrow" to that list and hence, with great regret, you are disqualified from being a Tory today.

    Still, plenty of other parties.
  • Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    I think he has a higher chance of being in prison than in the White house in five years time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    I see Trump now needs 770% of the remaining Pennsylvania votes.....

    To quote St. Francis of Assisi.

    Where there is error, let me bring truth.
    Where there is doubt, let me bring faith.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    MrEd said:

    Trump only just lost. Will he win in 2024? The way it looks at the moment, I doubt I will be betting against it.

    Unless BIden is aware that he can't govern in the Clinton mould, he could do - if he's not in jail.
    I don't think he will go to jail. I suspect one of the main reasons for his actions is to make it politically toxic for Biden to pursue criminal charges. I'm sure a word will be had with the SDNY Prosecutor of not to go there.
    Biden's not going to hop in and nix a prosecution on Trump ! He'll stay out of it, as he should.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    There were an average of 47,700 new cases of Covid-19 a day in homes in England in the week up to 6 November, the Office for National Statistics has estimated.

    That's up from an estimated 45,700 new cases a day the previous week.

    The ONS said the rate of new infections appeared "to have stabilised at around 50,000.”

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyuk13november2020

    That's rather old news though, isn't it? It seems plausible that the stabilisation noted in the ONS report (and reflected in case data) corresponded to the school half-term holidays, but that a possible more recent spike in infections due to the return to school and pre-lockdown socialising has yet to show in their data.
    Old news? You mean as in just released by the ONS a few minutes ago. It is the most reliable handle we have on the situation (even if it is backward looking by one week). Thus I wouldn't call it old news at all. You might say new things haven't filtered through yet, but all we can do is go on the data available.
    It's old news in the sense that, as you say, it's a lagging indicator. And you are ignoring additional data that we have to go on, which is the more current (though, of course less accurate) case data.
    We were informed by the data scrapers on here that when taking into charting by the testing dates, case numbers are flat (even taking into consideration the big headline figure announced yesterday).
    Well I'd say that the figure announced yesterday is an indication that cases are indeed beginning to rise again after a period of stability. We'll see if I'm right over the next few days.
    Its certainly possible, but the evidence from ONS, REACT and Zoe suggest not. Plus we have been in lockdown-lite in England for over a week now. As ever there is a catch up, and I have consistently said that we should primarily consider the sample date, not the reporting date.
    I'd be concerned if we ARE seeing an new increase with the current rules in England.
This discussion has been closed.