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Has to be Hunt – politicalbetting.com
Has to be Hunt – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson is losing the support of his party. There are enough straws in the wind now to indicate his perceived usefulness is coming to an end, and his popularity is rapidly diminishing in the country. If there’s anything more likely to confirm MPs worries it’s the polling, and the most recent show him behind Keir Starmer as best Prime Minister and his support fracturing in the Red Wall. Many have had concerns about Boris all along, and many more since the early summer, but a lot has changed in the last 2 months.
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I traded out my 14/1 on Rishi Sunak yesterday. Why? Because there are too many curve balls around at the moment and I think you're right: he is 'being viewed with rose-tinted spectacles.'
I agree with your comments about Hunt.
The issue though here is that it's the tory party membership who get to choose and I could possibly see them keeping on the right. Raab blew it during Boris' virus break: he just looked like a frightened rabbit. Patel comes across as a sociopath and Gove is brilliant on detail but a backstabbing schemer.
I'm just about to buy on Hunt following your suggestion, but will keep it modest for the same reasons I cashed out on Sunak.
I bought on this but I think it's touch and go. It might be 50:50 which I guess makes the bet value.
I'm expecting to lose but it might get close enough for me to trade out.
If Covid-19 is still a major issue, I'd expect Hunt's rivals to make hay with this, and if the pandemic is over, I'd expect a public enquiry which would embarrass Hunt for the same reason.
Then again, I forecast Boris would not be made leader because of his obvious character flaws going back years but Boris had a clear lead in the polls, and MPs held their noses or did not notice the smell in the first place.
So imo Hunt is fatally flawed unless, at the time of the leadership election, he polls far better than his rivals.
I think there's a secondary aspect though. Joe Biden is also a fan of the EU. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EU and the President elect don't cosy up and play tough with the UK.
Biden should outlast Johnson in office.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/four-seasons-total-landscaping-trump-team-news-conference.html
https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/status/1325132671140327427
In terms of real politics, the lead sets out what the Tories should do, both in their interests and ours, but not what they will do or want to do. I guess we will have to wait until HY gets up to set out why it won’t happen.
The latter is my reservation. Sensible moderates who don’t appear to be driven by strong ideology can struggle in political parties, since most of the members and elected representatives doing to choosing are the opposite. There has to be a desperation factor to drive them in that direction - desperation to overcome their opponent’s success or desperation to escape from the character of the incumbent.
The one thing Casino’s bet does have going for it is that both of these desperations are likely to be on the increase within the Tories as the months go by.
I just wonder whether they can ever return to sensible in just one bound?
The question is whether an end to Covid is in sight, or not.
If there's a working vaccine (and/or something like this is in mass production), then we will all probably deal OK with restrictions.
It's restrictions without end that we cannot stand. "I'm sorry, but you have to hold on for another 10 to 15 weeks while we vaccinate the most vulnerable 30% of the population and those most likely to transmit Covid" is very different from "I'm sorry, but you can't go out, and I don't know when that will change."
https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1325317110319427584?s=20
Outside a shop selling a bunch of dildos.
You can now buy Biden on the next President market at 1.05. There's about £45k available. This looks like a pretty risk free way of making a few bob quickly. I had a look at the rules and Betfair would have some justification in closing the market and paying out now. I expect they will hang on though until all the States are 100% counted, which should be later this week, Alaska being the last to report.
I wouldn't expect legal challenges or recounts to delay settlement. So, 5% interest over five days or so. Sounds ok to me.
Edit: Of course if Donald chucks the towel in sooner you would expect payout immediately. I read a Fox story suggesting he might follow his lawyers' advice and quit in the next couple of days. Hope so, and not just because of my bank balance.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
For the first time there will be a rescue dog in the White House:
https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/07/932624210/major-and-champ-are-major-champs-in-this-election-dogs-return-to-the-white-house
Excellent article, CR, but I won't join in. My devout conviction was that Trump, Johnson and Brexit were all bad ideas so my record at predicting the future is looking a bit ropey.
Hunt does looks an eminently plausible suggestion to me but I'll pass if it's ok with everybody.
https://twitter.com/mki4agze/status/1325326824012976128
https://www.businessinsider.com/giuliani-releases-bizarre-video-declaring-trump-won-the-presidency?r=US&IR=T
They seem like great people.
The NHS, in case you hadn't noticed, is held in high esteem right now except for the Far Right idealogues.
I've lived all over the world and the NHS is fantastic. Yes of course it has faults, some of that down to the Blair years for top-loading management, but it's a superb health care provider at the point of need, regardless of circumstance. I know that sticks in the throat for Trump-types but for the rest of the normal human race, it's brilliant.
However is this the Glad Confident Morning that was never going to come?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVSJriRbxQQ&feature=youtu.be
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/us/kamala-harris-parents.html
Jeremy Hunt yesterday...
An intriguing suggestion. Hmm.
Marcus Rashford's campaign to tackle holiday hunger and child poverty in England has been addressed with a £396m package in a government climbdown.
The prime minister telephoned the footballer on Saturday to tell him of the new plans for targeted support over Christmas, Easter and Summer holidays.
Rashford said nearly 1.7 million children would be helped, adding he had a good conversation with Boris Johnson.
Previously the government had argued Universal Credit was enough support.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54841316
Same with the Underground. Later mass transport systems have seen it's faults and avoided them. It's also old, and sometimes shows it's age!
twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1325201200116068352/photo/1
I'm looking after my toddler this morning (she got up at 6.30am) so I don't know when I'm going to get a chance to engage with all your comments, but I appreciate them all and am reading them as and when I can!
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1325302580445110274
We will have to invent one.
Shame.
4 seasons. Total landscaping.
It all makes sense now...
On the NYT state election results page, down below the headline result is an expandable list of counties, with leading candidate, margin of lead and estimate of votes reported so far. Obviously this is exactly what is needed for a decent estimate of the final result.
Last night at midnight I went through the calculation for Arizona and estimated that Biden's lead would rise from 21.1k then to 23.5k.
It seems around 23k ballots were reported overnight, and Biden's lead shrank to 18.6k. But repeating the calculation still shows precisely the same final estimate: 23.5k.
Unless this consistency is a fluke, I wonder why the pundits haven't been doing this kind of calculation. If it holds up, an awful lot of uncertainty could have been avoided over the last few days (and an awful lot of money made).
If he is more likely to be Tory leader post the GE then next leader is better (despite the worse odds), if more likely to be leader before the next election then next PM is better.
Id lean towards backing him for Tory leader is better, his most plausible path is Johnson "resolves" Brexit, does just well enough to hang in but loses the GE, probably to a hung parliament. At this point he is the clear leader of the anti-Johnson, competent wing of the party, and there are few rivals for this spot - Javid, who generally seems overrated, is the only one still in parliament and it is hard for others to rise without being involved in government. (Sunak whilst competent, is far more tied to Johnson's success and the Brexit project).
Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
The govt and PM havent shafted him, he shafted himself with stupid crass commentary.