WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory – politi

Chris said:

Nate Silver:
"I’m not a decision desk, but I suppose I think Nevada is on the verge of being callable at this point. Two-thirds of the state’s population is in Clark County and Biden is gaining big in Clark County! Not sure I see the route for a Trump comeback."

If Fox calls NV they will have to declare Biden the winner of the election

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.

And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).

That is not really true, Trump has got 68 million votes so far, in 2018 Republican Senators only got 34 million votes combined. Trump has also got a higher share of the vote than any Republican nominee since President Bush in 2004.

If they are outperforming Trump it is only mainly because Trump voters who did not bother to vote for Republican congressmen last time did vote for them this time downballot but only as they were mainly turning out to vote for Trump

You're comparing a national election with ones held in a limited number of states.

In the House election in 2018 too the GOP only got 50 million compared to today's 68 million for Trump, so far Trump has also got 8 million votes more than the 60 million Romney got in 2012 and Trump is on 47.9% of the vote, higher than the 47.2% of the vote Romney got in 2012 as well

Midterms have lower turnout than Presidential elections shocker.

In 2018 the Democrats got 60 million votes for the House, only 12 million less than the 72 million votes Biden is now on.

The 50 million votes the GOP got in the House elections though in 2018 is a far larger 18 million less than the 68 million votes Trump is now on

Chris said:

Nate Silver:
"I’m not a decision desk, but I suppose I think Nevada is on the verge of being callable at this point. Two-thirds of the state’s population is in Clark County and Biden is gaining big in Clark County! Not sure I see the route for a Trump comeback."

Yup. I'd be tempted to call it.

I'm really surprised. I thought it was going to flip.

ping said:

Bit of a long-odds gamble going on over at betfair -Someone’s betting £1000’s on Kamala Harris. Into 750/1

I really dont get it, if there is an EC tie it is possible, but even if Biden died wouldnt he still be the one to win the EC vote?

So you somehow need Dem Georgia, Trump the rest and then Republican states in the house to vote Harris???

RobD said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324398489451769858?s=20

But all the other data showed the same thing, that it was getting worse.

I follow the ONS weekly death figures. I plugged their COVID deaths into Excel to predict the growth. The previous five weeks predicted 983 deaths for the week ending 23 October. The actual number? 978.

The simple model gives the number of deaths for the weeks up to Christmas as:

30-Oct-20 - 1,440
06-Nov-20 - 2,117
13-Nov-20 - 3,111
20-Nov-20 - 4,572
27-Nov-20 - 6,719
04-Dec-20 - 9,874
11-Dec-20 - 14,511
18-Dec-20 - 21,326
25-Dec-20 - 31,341

It's easy to see why they felt the need to act.

Chris said:

Nate Silver:
"I’m not a decision desk, but I suppose I think Nevada is on the verge of being callable at this point. Two-thirds of the state’s population is in Clark County and Biden is gaining big in Clark County! Not sure I see the route for a Trump comeback."

Good. If he gets NV he just needs one more state.

Mysticrose said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.

And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).

That is not really true, Trump has got 68 million votes so far, in 2018 Republican Senators only got 34 million votes combined. Trump has also got a higher share of the vote than any Republican nominee since President Bush in 2004.

If they are outperforming Trump it is only mainly because Trump voters who did not bother to vote for Republican congressmen last time did vote for them this time downballot but only as they were mainly turning out to vote for Trump

What you have done there is take a national Presidential election total and compute it against 1/3rd of Senators elected at a time.

The data from this election shows that Donald Trump's share of the vote and raw vote were below those of Republican Senators standing in the same states.

He's a liability not an asset.

You really are crass sometimes.

p.s. by the way I really also need to put you back in your box on this raw numbers last resort of yours. You do know, right, that the population of the US has been growing these past 250 years? Comparing a raw total today with 1960 is ridiculous when there are 100 million more people in the country.
https://www.census-charts.com/Population/pop-us-1790-2000.html

No, in 2018 too the Republicans got 38% national voteshare on average in the seats they were standing in, as of now Trump is on 47.9%, almost 10% more

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Covid press conference is late.

Whitty still trying to draw a graph steep enough on his powepoint slides.

Takes more effort to massage your data than just plot the real up to date numbers.

You obviously never did an undergraduate physics practical...

In order to fix the data properly, you had to understand what you were doing.

Downer if the equipment turned out to be badly calibrated tho'...

TOPPING said:

Andy_Cooke said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Malmesbury said:

isam said:

Malmesbury said:

isam said:

Chris said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324353822366572546

Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.

What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?

Except that it is basically impossible to isolate people to the level they are no risk to others. Unless you quarantine them completely....

They would be a risk to others, others that are willing to take the risk

You can't select who would be at risk from an infected person - unless they live in a sealed environment.

Yes, seal off those who dont want to be at risk

That's impossible though.

It would be nice to get some suggestions that aren't impossible, like "those at risk will just have to accept that life must go on" rather than impossibilities like "seal them off".

It's not impossible, millions of people did it earlier this year

Wasn't really a raging success, though, was it, given that 50,000-odd people still ended up dying.
And "place loads of other people under real house arrest so I can get back to normal, why doesn't everyone see that's just fair?" is still not cutting much ice with many people.

As with all these things we are trying to balance a set of very unpalatable options.

It is once more the granny hug dilemma and I will say it again:

Total lockdown: granny doesn't get a hug
Selective lockdown of vulnerable people: granny doesn't get a hug.

You say but that's not fair. Which sentiment I understand. But while collective punishment has its place in various scenarios, that is no way to run an economy.

Total “lockdown” - granny can be in a bubble with one of her kids’ families, get hugs, and carefully go out to shop.
Selective lockdown of the vulnerable - she can’t do either.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324401527663058944?s=21

He's getting slightly more inflammatory, but Twitter haven't censored, advised on, or removed that one.

Liberal Democrat party supporters matter..

Update:

I think Nevada is leans Republican Democrat. (And may well become likely in the next hour or so.)
North Carolina is likely Republican.
Georgia is leans Democrat
Arizona is likely Democrat
Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

noneoftheabove said:

Are there any scenarios where Harris wins the betfair market? Not sure why she is getting backed today? Just people getting rid of exposure or is there some complicated scenario involving a tie or something?

Someone on the forum reckoned it might just be a prank. Someone else said maybe if it is a 269-269 tie, which then goes to the states, and if Biden cannot continue then the states might elect Kamala. My guess is a badly-programmed bot is involved; sometimes you see bots trading non-runners in races.

300 now and incoming....

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mysticrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.

And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).

If I was an American in a swing state I'd be tempted by Biden, but I'd definitely vote Republican for the House and possibly for the Senate too, depending on the candidate.

I can't stand Nancy Pelosi, who's a very left-wing San Francisco Liberal. It'd be like me voting for Glenda Jackson.

TEMPTED?

C'mon.

It'd either be that, or third party. Trouble is.. I can't predict with 100% certainty how my politics would be if I was an American living in America, as to a British Conservative opining from over here.

Yes, I wonder. Would you have been one of those high-minded Lincoln Republican types or would you have (as they say) "held your nose". The vast majority of "normal" Republicans did the latter. One of the biggest reasons Trump managed to be competitive.

Dunno. At the end of the day we don't pay American taxes and get affected by their domestic policy.

It's easy to be high & mighty when you live aboard, and it's all about noble foreign policy and good behaviour, but when you actually live there..

If most Britains lived in the USA they would likely tip the balance so that neither George W Bush or Trump would ever have been elected anyway, so the GOP would have to look more like McCain and Kasich and Bush Snr and less like it does now to ever win

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1324371433984790530

Labour potentially could come second in Scotland with some work

Where's your ambition gone?

Is Biden ill?

Flatlander said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Covid press conference is late.

Whitty still trying to draw a graph steep enough on his powepoint slides.

Takes more effort to massage your data than just plot the real up to date numbers.

You obviously never did an undergraduate physics practical...

In order to fix the data properly, you had to understand what you were doing.

Downer if the equipment turned out to be badly calibrated tho'...

I knew a pair who handed in a perfectly good practical write up for an experiment that turned out to have been broken the year before and not replaced: they had to admit that they had got their results from a guy in the year above and had not gone near the lab...

kinabalu said:

MASSIVE BREAKING -

Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes goes to Biden! - He's close now.

(BBC)

LOL

Omnium said:

Is Biden ill?

What timing!

Mal557 said:

More smaller counties votes in NV coming in, making no impact on the numbers.

Some of the counties in Nevada have miniscule populations. Several of them could be 100% one way and have virtually no impact.

Anyone else notice how many ers and ums Johnson does? He is terrible! His fanbois tell us he is a good speaker. Surely someone should tell him. He regularly says er er er er, yes four ers in a row. Not only is he a crap leader he is also crap at presenting . He should stick to writing semi-witty polemics, it is all he is good at.

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.

And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).

That is not really true, Trump has got 68 million votes so far, in 2018 Republican Senators only got 34 million votes combined. Trump has also got a higher share of the vote than any Republican nominee since President Bush in 2004.

If they are outperforming Trump it is only mainly because Trump voters who did not bother to vote for Republican congressmen last time did vote for them this time downballot but only as they were mainly turning out to vote for Trump

That's one of your daftest yet. On two thirds of states hold senate elections.

Trump's margin of loss, though, is going to be bigger than Romney's 3.9% miss in 2012.

That's true. He's just a built a more competitive electoral coalition where it counts.

I mean, who did Romney really excite? He oozed privileged rich man who wants to make things easier for him and his mates.

Romney basically combined a watered down version of Goldwater's policy with Bush Snr's elitist background but lacked the former's oratory or the latter's centrism.

His convention in 2012 was the dullest I have ever seen for a GOP nominee as was his speech and that includes Bob Dole's, say what you like about Trump but he knows how to fire up an audience and have exciting rallies and conventions.

Romney is a decent enough Senator and was a reasonable governor but was not a great presidential candidate

My view? The key, as it always has been, is T&T and self-isolation.

The (a) solution? Pay people a lot of money to self-isolate. Earn £500/week? Pay them £750.

If it makes self-isolation work then it will be worth every penny.

MrEd said:

FYI, and it also goes back to what @TSE said before re the courts. Ignore if you want.

Legally, it looks there will be different attack routes here for the Republicans. @RCS1000 is right, trying to deal with several challenges at once causes problems so the approaches will be staggered. In PA, the immediate focus will be to stop the counts to create a “breather” in terms of Trump’s vote being eroded. That gives time to the campaign. Afterwards, the focus will be to restart the SC case which was tied 4-4 and hope to win it with Comey Barrett in place (point: I think they will – no reason either side should change their vote and I think Comey Barrett will come down with the Conservative majority).

In Wisconsin, the Republicans, for the moment, seem happy to go through the recount motions as mandated by law. It’s following due process and they will want to focus elsewhere. They could start making claims about electoral fraud in Milwaukee but I expect that to be low key for now although it could ramp up. There probably will be some low key legal challenges about how votes were dealt with.

Georgia, it’s clear it will be about whittling down leads by casting aspersions here and there on how the votes were counted and tallied. In such a close race, it makes a difference.

The main attack for now seems to be Michigan. As well as what @DAlexander posted (which could be clerical issues), there is a video doing the rounds from Project Veritas (yes, I know....) about a Michigan postal worker claiming his supervisor ordered him to re-date ballots received after the cut off date. 7.5m+ views so far apparently.

The strategy looks to be to go in hard on fraud. MI is favourable to Trump legally because its Supreme Court is Republican and has given a bloody nose to Whitmer before. Also, there will be satisfaction for him in accusing Whitmer of rigging the process.

The postal worker point is also important. It's difficult for the Federals to get involved with state elections, although they can under certain circumstances. However, tampering with the mail is a federal offence. Remedy wise, there is probably little they can do but it gives an excuse to launch an investigation to support claims the election is rigged.

One other point re the SC. Many have said on here the SCs are not beholden to Trump. To a degree yes but, from my information, ACB was rushed through the Senate because the WH did not trust Roberts to side with them in any dispute on the election. That suggests they think Kavanaugh / Gorsuch will (very likely for Kavanaugh) and they know ACB will do as well.

If this is how the election is won, we are in the realms of Belarus. Truly shocking.

Anabobazina said:

Fox won't be calling NV as then they will have to call the election!

Silver agrees. He has now posted:
"A little inside baseball, but this dynamic may affect how different networks are handling Nevada. If you’ve called Arizona (which I don’t think you should have!), then a Nevada call would give Biden the election. But Nevada is probably callable at this point!"

Re: Trump under/overperforming GOP senators. It's possible for both to be true (eg. if wondering what happens in Georgia Run off).

1) Trump could bring huge numbers of fanatical people to the polls, who, because they are there, vote for the GOP Senate candidate at the same time. But Senate candidate then overall does better vs Democrat than Trump vs Biden because of a number of moderate Republicans who lend Biden their vote (but vote for GOP Senate candidate).

2) In the Run off there is no Trump, so many of the fanatical Trump supporters don't turn up. However if all Democrat/Biden supporters turn up anyway, then the Democrat will now be in a position to win.

So in scenario 1 the GOP candidate out performs Trump and beats the Democrat opponent.

Scenario 2 the GOP candidate loses Trumpists (who don't turn up) and loses.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324407338485321729

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

noneoftheabove said:

Are there any scenarios where Harris wins the betfair market? Not sure why she is getting backed today? Just people getting rid of exposure or is there some complicated scenario involving a tie or something?

Someone on the forum reckoned it might just be a prank. Someone else said maybe if it is a 269-269 tie, which then goes to the states, and if Biden cannot continue then the states might elect Kamala. My guess is a badly-programmed bot is involved; sometimes you see bots trading non-runners in races.

300 now and incoming....

No, if there has to be a contingent election, it will be up to the members of the new House of Representatives to choose the President with state house delegations voting en block not individually.

The Senate will choose the Vice President and they do vote individually, the new House term starts 3rd of Jan although that's a Sunday so they might meet for the first time on Monday the 4th.

rottenborough said:

Harris dropping like a stone.

😂😂

isam said:

I as thinking of backing Harris at 1000 and laying gender of next POTUS "Female" at 500 yesterday. Thought I had prob missed something so didnt bother

I have had the £40 I won on the election on her at 260 though!

Someone has removed my edit function!!!

I had £800+ green on Kamala Harris from pre-nomination trading. I just offered £4 and got matched at 260. Weird.

There seems to be a big mismatch between the State odds and Biden's presidency odds.

Currently Biden's probabiity on latest matched Betfair prices are:

Georgia 59%
NC 20%
Arizona 74%
Penn 85%
Nevada 92%

Of the 32 combinations of the five states, 27 are winners for Biden and 5 (unlikely ones) are for Trump.

The State probabilities imply Biden has a 98% probability of winning the Presidency i.e. 1.02, but he is 1.14 on Betfair.

So either the State odds are too short on Biden (bet on Trump on the States) or the Presidency odds are too short on Biden (bet on Biden on the Presidency).

Carnyx said:

isam said:

isam said:

I as thinking of backing Harris at 1000 and laying gender of next POTUS "Female" at 500 yesterday. Thought I had prob missed something so didnt bother

I have had the £40 I won on the election on her at 260 though!

Someone has removed my edit function!!!

Mine too.

Probably Vanilla doing one of its periodical archiving.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324407338485321729

Such gravitas.

Chris said:

Anabobazina said:

Fox won't be calling NV as then they will have to call the election!

Silver agrees. He has now posted:
"A little inside baseball, but this dynamic may affect how different networks are handling Nevada. If you’ve called Arizona (which I don’t think you should have!), then a Nevada call would give Biden the election. But Nevada is probably callable at this point!"

So they just uncall AZ

isam said:

Probably nothing, but if Trump takes this to court and the case takes ages, then he loses.. maybe Kamala will be next POTUS

Not under the terms of the Betfair rules.

Only 12th Amendment Presidencies count, not 25th Amendment ones.

We're long past Harris winning under the 12th Amendment in 2020.

Very, very Partridge!

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1324405696914460679?s=20

numbertwelve said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324407338485321729

Such gravitas.

A modern-day Lincoln, no more and no less.

noneoftheabove said:

ping said:

Bit of a long-odds gamble going on over at betfair -Someone’s betting £1000’s on Kamala Harris. Into 750/1

I really dont get it, if there is an EC tie it is possible, but even if Biden died wouldnt he still be the one to win the EC vote?

So you somehow need Dem Georgia, Trump the rest and then Republican states in the house to vote Harris???

Could be someone just closing out a short position.

CNN quoting Trump campaign staff, saying Georgia is a write off for him.

CNN - "Increasing bleak for the President in Georgia" - Trump adviser.

isam said:

Very, very Partridge!

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1324405696914460679?s=20

“He (Trump) was literally on fire”. Amazing.

Barnesian said:

There seems to be a big mismatch between the State odds and Biden's presidency odds.

Currently Biden's probabiity on latest matched Betfair prices are:

Georgia 59%
NC 20%
Arizona 74%
Penn 85%
Nevada 92%

Of the 32 combinations of the five states, 27 are winners for Biden and 5 (unlikely ones) are for Trump.

The State probabilities imply Biden has a 98% probability of winning the Presidency i.e. 1.02, but he is 1.14 on Betfair.

So either the State odds are too short on Biden (bet on Trump on the States) or the Presidency odds are too short on Biden (bet on Biden on the Presidency).

I think that a small nibble on Biden in North Carolina is worth it. There are quite a few mail in ballots that will be recieved in the next week, and we know they break very heavily for Biden. (Indeed, trading the postal - in person splits was one of the highlights of election evening.)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Finally the University of Manchester do what I've been suggesting for weeks.

Manchester University Sparks Panic After Students 'Fenced In' For Covid Security

Teenagers left in tears after not being told in advance about construction of "prison".

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/student-panic-as-manchester-university-halls-are-fenced-in-for-covid-security_uk_5fa420c1c5b65f36890f5ff1

If anyone's going to be imprisoned it really ought to be the scumbag vice-chancellors and their cronies who lured all these kids into their revenue-generating trap in the first place. These issues would not have arisen if most of the students had been told to study from home.

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1324371433984790530

Labour potentially could come second in Scotland with some work

That also suggests they could pick up some SNP constituency seats in the central belt next year with Tory and LD tactical votes

Yet if Mr Starmer has said he's open to indyref 2, precisely in order to peel off those pro-indy but previously labour voters ...

SLab will pick up near zero Yes voters in Scotland, to win seats from the SNP they have to win Tory and LD Unionist tactical votes in the central belt.

Starmer also said indyref2 was not needed soon he only did not rule out the possibility if the SNP won a majority next year but if SLab won seats from the SNP next year then the SNP would lose their majority at Holyrood and that would not apply anyway

On those figures, SCUP is already getting confined to the Brexiter and Unionist bitter-enders, and the LDs to the shy Tories and the special constituencies. The potentyial Labour votes are pretty much all in the SNP, Greens or LDs - and fewer of those in a FPTP (forget Holyrood for now). Ian Murray is sui generis; nobody else in SLAB pulled off that trick last time, admittedly under Mr Corbyn - but then nobody seriously believed Mr Corbyn would win anyway, so it was safe to vote for Mr Murray and co. Now Mr Starmer is a far greater existential threat to the Tories.

noneoftheabove said:

ping said:

Bit of a long-odds gamble going on over at betfair -Someone’s betting £1000’s on Kamala Harris. Into 750/1

I really dont get it, if there is an EC tie it is possible, but even if Biden died wouldnt he still be the one to win the EC vote?

No. If Biden died (as happened to the losing candidate in 1872) he can’t be voted for in the EC as he’s ineligible to be President.

So Harris would almost certainly get the votes transferred to her, although that isn’t quite what happened to Greeley.

isam said:

Very, very Partridge!

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1324405696914460679?s=20

Farage seems resigned to a Biden presidency there, though he says it will be a weak one with a GOP Senate and says Trump could run again in 2024.

Note he praises the French unusually for banning postal voting as he blames alleged postal vote fraud for a likely Trump defeat

Jonathan said:

isam said:

Very, very Partridge!

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1324405696914460679?s=20

“He (Trump) was literally on fire”. Amazing.

So that’s why he’s orange yellow on top.

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1324371433984790530

Labour potentially could come second in Scotland with some work

Where's your ambition gone?

NEW @Survation
Poll - Scottish Independence Referendum

“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

Yes 54% (+1) No 46% (-1)

1,071 respondents, residents, aged 16+, fieldwork 28 Oct - 4 Nov 2020. Changes w/ 2-7 Sep 2020

Only 47% Yes including undecideds