WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory – politi

Chris said:

Nate Cohn in the NYT thinks a 100,000 margin for Biden in Pennsylvania may be a conservative estimate. Also thinks it likely that Biden will will Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, though not certain:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/upshot/biden-election-results-votes.html

Razedabode said:

I know we're all focused on Georgia but..

NEW @Survation Poll - Scottish Independence Referendum

“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

Yes 54% (+1)
No 46% (-1)

1,071 respondents, residents of Scotland, aged 16+, fieldwork 28 Oct - 4 Nov 2020. Changes w/ 2-7 Sep 2020

https://t.co/v5RC9ljbsD https://t.co/7pKhuRL4zf

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Northern_Al said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.

We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.

You're assuming, rather rashly, that the good people of Sunderland will be free to travel by then.

Indeed, the other problem is that will the Americans be able to understand the Geordie accent?

Most of us in the UK cannot.

And you, sir, cannot tell the difference between a Geordie accent and a Mackem accent!

Anyhow, a women in Alabama liked my accent!

Sean_F said:

I wonder if the Georgia Secretary of State will just declare Trump the winner.

Mysticrose said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324382400814698496?s=20

Mal557 said:

paulyork64 said:

TimT said:

bigjohnowls said:

Chatham County 17k
Clayton County 7k
forsyth 5k
fulton 11k
Gwinnett 7k

4 out of 5 Dem

2 biggest are cica 80/20

60% of 28,000 is 14,400. Not enough?

clayton is voting 85% biden to date. fulton 73%. gwinnett 58%. forsyth is 67% trump.

Indeed someone who crunched the numbers on curent county % reckons a 3-4000 Biden win

Nigelb said:

Sean_F said:

I wonder if the Georgia Secretary of State will just declare Trump the winner.

Wouldn't it be close enough to demand a recount, though, so not much point ?
Sounds as though they are running a reasonably fair count, however unlevel the playing field they set for election day in terms of polling stations etc.

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Robert Koch Institute said a record 19,990 infections had been confirmed yesterday in Germany today

The ramp is bloody steep there.

paulyork64 said:

count flooding in in GA now. trump up 3, biden 1.

Malmesbury said:

isam said:

Chris said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324353822366572546

Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.

What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?

Except that it is basically impossible to isolate people to the level they are no risk to others. Unless you quarantine them completely....

Gaussian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Robert Koch Institute said a record 19,990 infections had been confirmed yesterday in Germany today

The ramp is bloody steep there.

It was 18732 last Wednesday according to Worldometer, so they might have halted it. They're in a similar not-quite-lockdown to here.

Mal557 said:

bigjohnowls said:

20 mins ago Fulton submitted 9k of its 11k to vote review panel i am forecasting a reduction of 6.5k in the lead from that batch.

Lets see if i am close

Stats guy I'm following says 6630 so I think you will be very close

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kamski said:

felix said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?

Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.

GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!

Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?

Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.

Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?

So my understanding of all of them at this point is:

GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.

NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.

AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.

PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.

All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.

Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.

Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.

Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.

It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.

I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.

A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.

Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.

🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

kinabalu said:

I wonder when the Beeb might consider giving Wisconsin to Biden.

Casino_Royale said:

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kamski said:

felix said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?

Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.

GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!

Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?

Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.

Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?

So my understanding of all of them at this point is:

GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.

NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.

AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.

PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.

All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.

Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.

Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.

Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.

It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.

I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.

A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.

Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.

🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".

It isn't in your case, sadly.

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fuck Massachussets, I don't care if FSG come from there.

twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1324376918448316418

Mal557 said:

Anabobazina said:

Chris said:

Nate Cohn in the NYT thinks a 100,000 margin for Biden in Pennsylvania may be a conservative estimate. Also thinks it likely that Biden will will Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, though not certain:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/upshot/biden-election-results-votes.html

CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin

CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself

Looking at the figures, I think all but AZ look good for Biden now, GA very close, PA and NV not so much. AZ I really have no idea but looks very close and probably the last we will know

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kamski said:

felix said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?

Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.

GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!

Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?

Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.

Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?

So my understanding of all of them at this point is:

GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.

NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.

AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.

PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.

All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.

Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.

Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.

Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.

It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.

I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.

A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.

Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.

🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".

Casino_Royale said:

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.

Mysticrose said:

kinabalu said:

I wonder when the Beeb might consider giving Wisconsin to Biden.

Ludicrous isn't it?

Casino_Royale said:

So, how do we think it'd be going if Hillary had been reselected?

Gaussian said:

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

If he wins, that does count as material.

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gaussian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Robert Koch Institute said a record 19,990 infections had been confirmed yesterday in Germany today

The ramp is bloody steep there.

It was 18732 last Wednesday according to Worldometer, so they might have halted it. They're in a similar not-quite-lockdown to here.

That isn't correct.

It was 14,964

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Okt_2020/2020-10-28-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Anabobazina said:

Chris said:

Nate Cohn in the NYT thinks a 100,000 margin for Biden in Pennsylvania may be a conservative estimate. Also thinks it likely that Biden will will Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, though not certain:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/upshot/biden-election-results-votes.html

CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin

CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself

isam said:

Chris said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324353822366572546

Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.

What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Anabobazina said:

Chris said:

Nate Cohn in the NYT thinks a 100,000 margin for Biden in Pennsylvania may be a conservative estimate. Also thinks it likely that Biden will will Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, though not certain:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/upshot/biden-election-results-votes.html

CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin

CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself

That last statement has the ring of truth about it.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Anabobazina said:

Chris said:

Nate Cohn in the NYT thinks a 100,000 margin for Biden in Pennsylvania may be a conservative estimate. Also thinks it likely that Biden will will Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, though not certain:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/upshot/biden-election-results-votes.html

CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin

CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself

That last statement has the ring of truth about it.

Roger said:

ANYONE got an idea who is going to win this? I see that my 1/6 on Biden in now 1/8 but a quick read through this thread isn't telling me much.

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

So, how do we think it'd be going if Hillary had been reselected?

I think whoever got the nomination in 2020 (probably not D Trump) would be cruising to victory.

Given how narrow the margins are in WI, MI and PA (where Biden has home state advantage) I think she'd have lost in the rust belt again but with an even bigger national vote lead discrepancy.

My previous view was that she would have beaten Trump this time. But what this election has told me is that although I was right to say he was toast, I was (sadly) wrong to expect a landslide rejection of him. I underestimated his enduring appeal. So what I now think is that most Dem candidates other than Biden would have lost on Tuesday and this includes Hillary.

MikeL said:

PA just reported:

Biden 11,866
Trump 1,114

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

Gallowgate said:

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

kamski said:

felix said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

numbertwelve said:

Cicero said:

If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?

Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.

GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!

Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?

Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.

Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?

So my understanding of all of them at this point is:

GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.

NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.

AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.

PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.

All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.

Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.

Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.

Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.

It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.

I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.

A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.

Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.

🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".

It isn't in your case, sadly.

Yes, it is. It's exactly what I think. You just categorise all "Remainers" into one "identity politics" block, exactly like the people you detest.

Nope, wrong. There are pragmatic Remainers, and there are intolerant Remoaners.

You are one of the latter - I've never read you couch your views as per the former.

You're too emotional.

I won't take lectures on being "emotional" from you, as you're the most emotional person on here. You get upset when someone posts an EU flag emoji.

I'm not even a "Remainer" any more. We're out of the EU and that's that. I've moved on, you clearly haven't.

Mysticrose said:

Casino_Royale said:

Endillion said:

Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?

I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.

He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.

And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).

DAlexander said:

Biden's got the dead vote sewn up

https://twitter.com/fleccas/status/1324216584219623424