politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continu
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If you don't tell us how you plan to vote, we'll talk to you about the merits of electoral reform or the pros and cons of Scottish Independence.OblitusSumMe said:
Thumbscrews.TheScreamingEagles said:The other amazing thing about that poll, as Corporeal noted.
They didn't have a single Don't Know/Refused to say.
That I think is unparalleled in polling history.0 -
Don't be too sure, I remember in one of the US races - I think it was VA governor - there was loads of professional polling showing the Dem ahead by anything from 7% to 12%, and a single poll by some university's "polling society" showing a 2% squeaker. I wrote off the student poll, assumed it was in the bag and piled my hard-earned bitcoins on the Dem. I won the bet... but it was a 2% squeaker.Slackbladder said:corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
'Carried out by a group of students'...corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Seems legit.0 -
I've recently been finding airbnb as a good way to find places to stay.DavidL said:I fear accommodation in the area may be somewhat limited...
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Nah, this is a superior get out the vote operation.Lennon said:
All those activists 'encouraging' people to vote? Sounds a bit Tower Hamlets doesn't it...?TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout out could be higher than normal because of the Tories GOTV operation.
1,000 activists in the seat since 4:45am today.0 -
Blue_rog said:
I don't see why that is trolling! Including the mechanics of how democracy works in the UK seems a logical part of PPE. Extending this to voter registration when students pass 18 is not a huge leap and having a polling station in school for registered voters seems logical as well.JBriskin said:
I assume you're trolling. But I wouldn't put it past Gove!!!! Newsnight Review Legend!!!!!Blue_rog said:I've just had a thought about encouraging young people to vote.
How about including registration and actual voting in the PPE lessons at school?
I shall attempt to calm down now.
Apologies I may have inadvertently misled the site :-)
Apparently, PPE is now called PSHCE (Personal, Social, Health, and Citizenship Education)
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'Quartic'.AveryLP said:
Obloid certainly.dugarbandier said:
The square wheel version?AveryLP said:
The truth is out.TheWatcher said:
Avery drives an Allegro.dugarbandier said:
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...Smarmeron said:@AveryLP
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?0 -
How many voters really want to be woken up by Grant Shapps at 5 in the morning?TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout out could be higher than normal because of the Tories GOTV operation.
1,000 activists in the seat since 4:45am today.0 -
@DavidL - There's some decent hotels in Leeds, which is about 20 mins away from Ilkley0
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Don't know, but that's not what they are doing.AndyJS said:
How many voters really want to be woken up by Grant Shapps at 5 in the morning?TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout out could be higher than normal because of the Tories GOTV operation.
1,000 activists in the seat since 4:45am today.
Delivering leaflets from 7 am and other stuff.0 -
Not the ones who went back to the hotel with Nigel at 3.42am, that's for sure.AndyJS said:
How many voters really want to be woken up by Grant Shapps at 5 in the morning?TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout out could be higher than normal because of the Tories GOTV operation.
1,000 activists in the seat since 4:45am today.0 -
Also handy how all the response numbers turn exactly into %s. Not a decimal point in sight, all so perfect.TheScreamingEagles said:The other amazing thing about that poll, as Corporeal noted.
They didn't have a single Don't Know/Refused to say.
That I think is unparalleled in polling history.
(Credit for noticing this should be shared with ToryJim when he and I were looking at this poll and some silly time this morning).0 -
Apparently the Shard has been evacuated - Smoke in the basement.0
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No. It wasn't even a GL.TheWatcher said:
'Quartic'.AveryLP said:
Obloid certainly.dugarbandier said:
The square wheel version?AveryLP said:
The truth is out.TheWatcher said:
Avery drives an Allegro.dugarbandier said:
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...Smarmeron said:@AveryLP
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?
No air-con.
The windows were manual!
It was so shaming to drive, I had to turn the collars of my car coat up and wear a titfer.
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Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying itTheScreamingEagles said:
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
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BBC Question Time @bbcquestiontime 10m
The #bbcqt panel this week: @DavidJonesMP, @leicesterliz, @HywelWilliamsMP, @IsabelHardman and @NevWilshire_SBM.0 -
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There's also a very good train connection between Ilkley and the centre of either Leeds or Bradford.TheScreamingEagles said:@DavidL - There's some decent hotels in Leeds, which is about 20 mins away from Ilkley
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A car without air con or electric windows? Surely you jest. Next you'll be telling us it didn't have an iPod connector.AveryLP said:
No. It wasn't even a GL.TheWatcher said:
'Quartic'.AveryLP said:
Obloid certainly.dugarbandier said:
The square wheel version?AveryLP said:
The truth is out.TheWatcher said:
Avery drives an Allegro.dugarbandier said:
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...Smarmeron said:@AveryLP
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?
No air-con.
The windows were manual!
It was so shaming to drive, I had to turn the collars of my car coat up and wear a titfer.
I remember when the power steering on my car failed, I bitched and moaned, my father pointed out the first 20 years of his driving life, none of his cars had power steering.0 -
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?ToryJim said:
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying itTheScreamingEagles said:
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
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I've already rung them, someone will call me back either today or tomorrow.MarkHopkins said:
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?ToryJim said:
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying itTheScreamingEagles said:
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
The number I rang was for their Politics department
01509 222990 -
Eagles my mother frequently extols the virtues of cars with crank handles and non-synchromesh gearboxes. I got a slap once for suggesting her first car came with a man and a flag.0
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@TheScreamingEagles
You should have pointed out to your dad that the steering ratios are different.
Might have earned you a thick ear, but it would have been worth it.0 -
But they were built differently as they knew there was no power steering.TheScreamingEagles said:...
I remember when the power steering on my car failed, I bitched and moaned, my father pointed out the first 20 years of his driving life, none of his cars had power steering.
So not quite a fair comparison.
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I'll second that. Leeds also has one of the finest curry houses I have ever visited and the Gents' in the basement of the Leeds Club is an unspoilt Victorian masterpiece. If I was really pushed and forced to give an honest opinion I would have to say I actually quite like Leeds, at least the city centre. The bar at the railway station is a disgrace, though, and best avoided.TheScreamingEagles said:@DavidL - There's some decent hotels in Leeds, which is about 20 mins away from Ilkley
Edited Extra bit: The taxi drivers are in the main bloody useless and don't know their own city.0 -
Guardian breaking news says Shard is being evacuated after reports of smoke in the basement.0
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Are you sure it wasn't SeanT arriving for lunch?TheScreamingEagles said:Apparently the Shard has been evacuated - Smoke in the basement.
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Whatever it turns out to be, I am glad they have evacuated the building successfully.0
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That in itself is suggestive, as if it was legit you'd expect them to realise they'd get interest. I'm sure we will get to the bottom of it but until we get more info I'm tending to regard it as made up numbers.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've already rung them, someone will call me back either today or tomorrow.MarkHopkins said:
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?ToryJim said:
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying itTheScreamingEagles said:
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
The number I rang was for their Politics department
01509 222990 -
I looked at the blog (http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html) where the 'poll' was shownToryJim said:
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying itTheScreamingEagles said:
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
and saw this comment:
"But I'm very disappointed to see our leader Mr Farage is not with us but on holiday in Malta. The People's Army needs it's General!"
Is Farage seriously on holiday? Unbelievable.
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I remember the time when I bought an ML a few years ago.ToryJim said:Eagles my mother frequently extols the virtues of cars with crank handles and non-synchromesh gearboxes. I got a slap once for suggesting her first car came with a man and a flag.
The ML doesn't have a traditional gear stick (it has a paddle shift gear stick next to the steering wheel) and it didn't have a traditional handbrake either, the handbrake is a foot handbrake where the clutch is in most manual cars/footrest in automatic cars
Christ when I Dad drove it, it was a scary experience.0 -
Ha. I can remember going to a wedding in one, and hiding in the footwell.AveryLP said:
No. It wasn't even a GL.TheWatcher said:
'Quartic'.AveryLP said:
Obloid certainly.dugarbandier said:
The square wheel version?AveryLP said:
The truth is out.TheWatcher said:
Avery drives an Allegro.dugarbandier said:
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...Smarmeron said:@AveryLP
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?
No air-con.
The windows were manual!
It was so shaming to drive, I had to turn the collars of my car coat up and wear a titfer.0 -
To be fair, it was the lady who deals with admissions and undergraduates I spoke to.ToryJim said:
That in itself is suggestive, as if it was legit you'd expect them to realise they'd get interest. I'm sure we will get to the bottom of it but until we get more info I'm tending to regard it as made up numbers.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've already rung them, someone will call me back either today or tomorrow.MarkHopkins said:
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?ToryJim said:
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying itTheScreamingEagles said:
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
The number I rang was for their Politics department
01509 22299
She was lovely but this was out of her normal field of expertise.0 -
@LogicalSong
"Is Farage seriously on holiday? Unbelievable"
Depends on who you are on holiday with? The pic of his companion in the papers might have me searching the late booking section.0 -
@LogicalSong
Farage is not in the UK whether you describe it as a holiday or not he's certainly enjoying the jollies.
Another thing that strikes me as suspicious about that blog is that there is no link to the "report" of the numbers. Really?0 -
@Mr Tyndall
Did UKIP-Newark select Mr Helmer as candidate, or was he selected by UKIP-HQ?0 -
I've done some analysis on the 4 most recent Yougovs, Populus & Ashcroft:
*Others kept constant
Weighted VI:
CON 31.3
LAB 36.2
LD 8.1
UKIP 14.6
OTHERS 9.8
Unweighted VI:
CON 28.2
LAB 37.6
LD 6.9
UKIP 17.5
OTHERS 9.8
Effect of weighting
CON +3.1
LAB -1.5
LD +1.2
UKIP -2.8
The Yougov methodology is predominant (5630 / 7650 respondents), and Ashcroft's weighted VI figures are rounded as I found it impossible to derive his actual weighted VI
Nonetheless there is an assumption that more people will vote Conservative than will say so, and less UKIP in particular.
Workings:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MOuv8qdTYitjNl4XCacfD1WFSN6V9Hto1B8XtpyAmFw/edit?usp=sharing0 -
Eagles yes I guess they aren't used to such things, however if someone had done a legit poll and come up with that conclusion you'd expect it to be publicised on more than merely a blog. I wonder if there are any serious political journos trying to stand this up as it would make a great potential story, students beat established pollsters etc.0
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Are you suggesting Team Blue shouldn't have made any effort in Newark?stodge said:
One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning. To have a sitting Prime Minister visit four times, to send (supposedly) 1,000 polling day activists (a better example of the law of diminishing returns would be hard to find) for a seat with a 16,000 majority smacks of something akin to panic.AveryLP said:
Tomorrow's headlines:GIN1138 said:Happy Newark Day.
Is this the day when the Balloon burst's on UKIP?
Revolting Kippers Quelled
Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.
Given some of the seat's they defended and lost during their last time in government (someone pointed out yesterday that they even lost Eastbourne after their MP was blown up by the IRA) you can't blame them for throwing everything at Newark and showing they aren't complacent or taking their voters for granted.
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My feeling on that poll is that they've simply polled Newark proper.0
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I notice that there is an "investigation" going on into the spat between May and Gove.
Surely a quick trip to the "headmasters" office would be sufficient?0 -
In the US, local universities often do the best polls because they know the local dynamics the best, and hence how to appropriately weight most accurately.edmundintokyo said:
Don't be too sure, I remember in one of the US races - I think it was VA governor - there was loads of professional polling showing the Dem ahead by anything from 7% to 12%, and a single poll by some university's "polling society" showing a 2% squeaker. I wrote off the student poll, assumed it was in the bag and piled my hard-earned bitcoins on the Dem. I won the bet... but it was a 2% squeaker.Slackbladder said:corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
'Carried out by a group of students'...corporeal said:
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?Speedy said:Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
Seems legit.0 -
I think some of the effort is less about this seat and this by-election than sending a number of more general messages. The main message being "we've got game".GIN1138 said:
Are you suggesting Team Blue shouldn't have made any effort in Newark?stodge said:
One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning. To have a sitting Prime Minister visit four times, to send (supposedly) 1,000 polling day activists (a better example of the law of diminishing returns would be hard to find) for a seat with a 16,000 majority smacks of something akin to panic.AveryLP said:
Tomorrow's headlines:GIN1138 said:Happy Newark Day.
Is this the day when the Balloon burst's on UKIP?
Revolting Kippers Quelled
Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.
Given some of the seat's they defended and lost during their last time in government (someone pointed out yesterday that they even lost Eastbourne after their MP was blown up by the IRA) you can't blame them for throwing everything at Newark and showing they aren't complacent or taking their voters for granted.0 -
A shortlist of 4 candidates was chosen by the UKIP national executive committee and was then put to the local UKIP branch to make a selection after interviews. No idea who the other 3 options were although there were various rumours at the time.anotherDave said:@Mr Tyndall
Did UKIP-Newark select Mr Helmer as candidate, or was he selected by UKIP-HQ?
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ToryJim said:
Eagles yes I guess they aren't used to such things, however if someone had done a legit poll and come up with that conclusion you'd expect it to be publicised on more than merely a blog. I wonder if there are any serious political journos trying to stand this up as it would make a great potential story, students beat established pollsters etc.
Probably best to phone up the politics lecturers directly - http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/phir/staff/
and see what they know. Whether they'll appreciate being cold called...0 -
Gove being accused of having an anti-Islam agenda. What utter nonsense, may he continue in office for many years to come:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-accused-of-using-trojan-horse-row-to-push-antiislam-agenda-9488549.html0 -
Thanks, the Monday is slightly more problematic as the kids have to get back for school etc. I will explore if I can put the family on the train back to Dundee.Blue_rog said:
There's also a very good train connection between Ilkley and the centre of either Leeds or Bradford.TheScreamingEagles said:@DavidL - There's some decent hotels in Leeds, which is about 20 mins away from Ilkley
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Do you not think it more than a little malodorous that all the figures lead to whole number percentages exactly? Not a decimal fraction in sight, no need for rounding at all? If that's a real poll it's the most startlingly freakish set of numbers in history, if it's accurate on top even more so. I just don't buy it.Pulpstar said:My feeling on that poll is that they've simply polled Newark proper.
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Nowadays such disputes are resolved through counselling.Smarmeron said:I notice that there is an "investigation" going on into the spat between May and Gove.
Surely a quick trip to the "headmasters" office would be sufficient?
You will have to vote UKIP to get back the excitement of a visit to the headmasters' study, smarmy.
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Because:edmundintokyo said:
This is the weird thing about the British anti-EU people: They're (officially at least) in favour of free trade, except for labour. In most countries the populist right want to stop both immigrants coming in and jobs going out, but UKIP seem to be perfectly happy for employers to sack low-skilled British people and give their jobs to Poles, as long as the Poles who take their jobs do them in Poland.rcs1000 said:Kipper Convert Alert!
A friend of mine has recently converted to Kipper-dom. He is a member of the metropolitan elite, and someone who - as recently as 2010 - was very anti-UKIP.
However, it's not all good news for the Kippers. He is in charge of the UK off-shoring business for a large consultancy. He thinks there'll be a big pick-up in off-shoring of call centres and support operations in the event of Brexit: a big opportunity for his company to take jobs out of the UK and ship them off to Poland.
(a) Tradeable jobs are only a fraction of all low income jobs, meaning low income people can adjust by going elsewhere
(b) Immigration comes with huge pressure on housing and public services, which doesn't occur in the case of offshoring
(c) you don't get the rapid cultural change/alienation effect in the offshoring case
That said, it's interesting that rcs' friend thinks there will be more opportunities for trade with the EU in a brexit case - isn't that the opposite of what we've been traditionally told?0 -
I assume all these schools were delighted to receive the Michael Gove signed edition of the Bible.AndyJS said:Gove being accused of having an anti-Islam agenda. What utter nonsense, may he continue in office for many years to come:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-accused-of-using-trojan-horse-row-to-push-antiislam-agenda-9488549.html0 -
That should probably be qualified with something like "short-term, visibly tradeable jobs are only a fraction of all low income jobs...".Socrates said:
(a) Tradeable jobs are only a fraction of all low income jobs, meaning low income people can adjust by going elsewhere0 -
That's a definite concern with it for sure.ToryJim said:
Do you not think it more than a little malodorous that all the figures lead to whole number percentages exactly? Not a decimal fraction in sight, no need for rounding at all? If that's a real poll it's the most startlingly freakish set of numbers in history, if it's accurate on top even more so. I just don't buy it.Pulpstar said:My feeling on that poll is that they've simply polled Newark proper.
0 -
Polling by Loughborough students gives kippers the lead?ToryJim said:
Do you not think it more than a little malodorous that all the figures lead to whole number percentages exactly? Not a decimal fraction in sight, no need for rounding at all? If that's a real poll it's the most startlingly freakish set of numbers in history, if it's accurate on top even more so. I just don't buy it.Pulpstar said:My feeling on that poll is that they've simply polled Newark proper.
Can only be the results of a pub quiz.
0 -
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."AndyJS said:Gove being accused of having an anti-Islam agenda. What utter nonsense, may he continue in office for many years to come:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-accused-of-using-trojan-horse-row-to-push-antiislam-agenda-9488549.html
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Well, bloody hooray. There's at least one minister that gets it: just because you're a Muslim that doesn't support terrorism doesn't mean you're a moderate. This is the trap British governments have been falling into for years - tolerating the indoctrination of kids with some abhorrent and barbaric views, as long as they oppose suicide bombing.
And where's the much-praised Theresa May in this dispute?
"Mr Gove’s stance is understood to have caused unease among cabinet colleagues including the Home Secretary Theresa May and the Communities Secretary Eric Pickles.
In particular both were angry at his decision to appoint Peter Clarke, the former head of Scotland Yard’s counter-terrorism department, to investigate the Trojan Horse claims using ministerial statutory powers. They believed they had an agreement with Mr Gove that his role should be voluntary. Ms May and Mr Gove are said to have had a number of “spats” in cabinet committee meetings."
Oh, right.0 -
Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100274846/todays-young-tories-only-have-eyes-for-each-other/
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.0 -
Depends what you define by Conservative.Socrates said:
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."AndyJS said:Gove being accused of having an anti-Islam agenda. What utter nonsense, may he continue in office for many years to come:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-accused-of-using-trojan-horse-row-to-push-antiislam-agenda-9488549.html
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.0 -
Quote reported by Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian:
As we said the veracity of the poll can't be checked because it's not been published but it reflects what bookies are saying
— Bloggers 4 UKIP (@bloggers4ukip) June 5, 20140 -
@LadPolitics: How bets taken and money staked on the Newark by-election differ with Ladbrokes. http://t.co/uFYDXDQ5ytRexel56 said:Quote reported by Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian:
As we said the veracity of the poll can't be checked because it's not been published but it reflects what bookies are saying
— Bloggers 4 UKIP (@bloggers4ukip) June 5, 20140 -
The Tories did manage to win the Enfield Southgate byelection in 1984 and quite comfortably too. Still it's hard to imagine a seat like that being lost even in the worst landslide defeat......0
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If someone's got a successful recipe for doing something and you don't get many chances to test it, like Lord Rennard and winning by-elections, you're best just copying everything they do to the smallest detail, even if you can't be sure that all of it really helps.FrankBooth said:Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating
0 -
It stinks is what it does.Rexel56 said:Quote reported by Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian:
As we said the veracity of the poll can't be checked because it's not been published but it reflects what bookies are saying
— Bloggers 4 UKIP (@bloggers4ukip) June 5, 20140 -
Depends what you define by Conservative.corporeal said:
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
Excuse me? What significant strata of 'Conservative Christianity' even in the world's remotest backwater believes in the death penalty for witchcraft? Ridiculous mischeif making.
0 -
Sounds like the kids are enjoying themselves doesn't it?FrankBooth said:I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100274846/todays-young-tories-only-have-eyes-for-each-other/
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.
0 -
Political youth organisations are (and I say this as part of one) strange and eccentric places.FrankBooth said:I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100274846/todays-young-tories-only-have-eyes-for-each-other/
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.0 -
I know plenty of people that identify as conservative Christians. None would support the killing of witches. Meanwhile the views I ascribe to conservative Muslims are frequently expressed and many are actually the law of a number of countries around the world.corporeal said:
Depends what you define by Conservative.Socrates said:
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."AndyJS said:Gove being accused of having an anti-Islam agenda. What utter nonsense, may he continue in office for many years to come:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-accused-of-using-trojan-horse-row-to-push-antiislam-agenda-9488549.html
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
We can be objective about this, if you like. Can we say that, of any population, the third most conservative count as "conservative, the third most progressive count as "progressive", and the third in the middle count as "mainstream"? I'm happy to dig up some opinion polls showing conservative views that are held by around a third of Muslims, and we can judge how extreme they are?0 -
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/4
0 -
Socrates - there's something rather ironic about Michael Gove with his dark ages manichean view of the world always looking for enemies to declare war on getting tough on Muslims who don't want to embrace western modernity. Should we challenge extremism? Yes. Is Michael Gove the person to do it? No!0
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Mr. Corporeal, I must concur that the UKIP poll has the smell of fish about it. And I don't mean the wholesome, genetically engineered aroma of enormo-haddock.
Mr. Gin, they're keen to prove life is better under a Conservative.0 -
Mr. Booth, so what are you suggesting? Gove's resignation? Letting Trojan Horse go uninvestigated?0
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@Morris_Dancer
I do hope they are using condoms, otherwise a "Future Conservative" government might overspend on the STD budget?0 -
Lazy stereotypes from a left-winger trying to brush the issue under the carpet. What a surprise. It's pathetic how people that claim to believe in feminism, secularism etc suddenly go limp-wristed when it comes to conservative Muslims. I guess they just vote Labour in strong enough numbers that you can ignore them?FrankBooth said:Socrates - there's something rather ironic about Michael Gove with his dark ages manichean view of the world always looking for enemies to declare war on getting tough on Muslims who don't want to embrace western modernity. Should we challenge extremism? Yes. Is Michael Gove the person to do it? No!
0 -
As long as your 'antics' are not published on face-book or other social media corporeal, your political future is safe(ish) - we won't spill the beans, honest. ;-)corporeal said:
Political youth organisations are (and I say this as part of one) strange and eccentric places.FrankBooth said:I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100274846/todays-young-tories-only-have-eyes-for-each-other/
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.0 -
@Morris_Dancer
There seems to be evidence pointing to Gove ignoring it back in 2010.
How times change?0 -
In a few years time I can see a few kids askingSmarmeron said:@Morris_Dancer
I do hope they are using condoms, otherwise a "Future Conservative" government might overspend on the STD budget?
"Mummy, Daddy, why did you name me Newark?"
0 -
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
Witch-hunts/killings are both existent and part of the legal systems in a number of African countries.Socrates said:
I know plenty of people that identify as conservative Christians. None would support the killing of witches. Meanwhile the views I ascribe to conservative Muslims are frequently expressed and many are actually the law of a number of countries around the world.corporeal said:
Depends what you define by Conservative.Socrates said:
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."AndyJS said:Gove being accused of having an anti-Islam agenda. What utter nonsense, may he continue in office for many years to come:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-accused-of-using-trojan-horse-row-to-push-antiislam-agenda-9488549.html
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
We can be objective about this, if you like. Can we say that, of any population, the third most conservative count as "conservative, the third most progressive count as "progressive", and the third in the middle count as "mainstream"? I'm happy to dig up some opinion polls showing conservative views that are held by around a third of Muslims, and we can judge how extreme they are?
There are conservative Christians and then there are conservative Christians.
Can't say I'm aware of any polling on it though.
I suspect cultural background is more influential on such matters than religion per se (noting religion as part of cultural background etc).0 -
Would recommend sticking it on the LDs winning Inverness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
I've piled on the Nats in Inverness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
Is Danny claiming the credit for the snow now?FrankBooth said:
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
Paddy the Power limited me to £6.09 on the SNP winning Inverness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
Mr. Eagles, kids should be given proper names. Like Morris. (Unless their surname's 'Dancer', of course).
Mr. Smarmeron, indeed, he deserves censure for that, and praise for doing something about it now. As Stannis Baratheon said, the good does nor wash away the bad, nor the bad wash away the good.0 -
0
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Try over the phone and in their shops, they let you put more on there.peter_from_putney said:
Paddy the Power limited me to £6.09 on the SNP winning Inverness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
Betting Post:
I've maxed out BOTH the SNP and the Lib Dems in Inverness on Paddy Power.
SNP @ 11-4;
LD @ 6-4
I think the value is in laying Labour !
0 -
Of course - he brings the Chill Winds of Toryism with him whenever he returns to the highlands...OblitusSumMe said:
Is Danny claiming the credit for the snow now?FrankBooth said:
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
0
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For the record, I'm in favour of the secularisation of schools generally, or at the least state funded ones.Socrates said:
Lazy stereotypes from a left-winger trying to brush the issue under the carpet. What a surprise. It's pathetic how people that claim to believe in feminism, secularism etc suddenly go limp-wristed when it comes to conservative Muslims. I guess they just vote Labour in strong enough numbers that you can ignore them?FrankBooth said:Socrates - there's something rather ironic about Michael Gove with his dark ages manichean view of the world always looking for enemies to declare war on getting tough on Muslims who don't want to embrace western modernity. Should we challenge extremism? Yes. Is Michael Gove the person to do it? No!
The Independent reported that the same Home Secretary who sent personally signed copies of the Bible out to schools is pushing for the secularisation of ones in Muslim areas...0 -
Mr. Smarmeron, is it forced? He's being criticised now for being 'too tough' on potential indoctrination of schoolkids. It's an odd thing to attack someone over.0
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I know you would, but I fear for the Lib Dems in Scotland next year.corporeal said:
Would recommend sticking it on the LDs winning Inverness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/4
For the Lib Dems in Scotland next year they will be like the Romans at the Battle of Arausio
Nick Clegg = Quintus Servilius Caepio
Danny Alexander = Gnaeus Mallius Maximus0 -
Lib Dems into 15-8 nowTheScreamingEagles said:
Try over the phone and in their shops, they let you put more on there.peter_from_putney said:
Paddy the Power limited me to £6.09 on the SNP winning Inverness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
The Power of PB.Pulpstar said:
Lib Dems into 15-8 nowTheScreamingEagles said:
Try over the phone and in their shops, they let you put more on there.peter_from_putney said:
Paddy the Power limited me to £6.09 on the SNP winning Inverness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/40 -
Is this a typo? Over at the Times breaking news banner
ECB cuts rate on deposit facility to -0.1%.0 -
Mr. Corporeal, worth mentioning we've had number of successful Islamic terrorist incidents, and a higher number of foiled or failed incidents, in recent years, compared to a relatively low number of Christian suicide bombers.
I'd be quite happy to see the state only fund secular schools, but when it comes to indoctrination and radicalisation in the UK, Christianity and Islam are on different planets. [And no, I'm not saying it's tremendously widespread in Islam. It only takes a few madmen to cause carnage].0 -
SimonStClare said:
As long as your 'antics' are not published on face-book or other social media corporeal, your political future is safe(ish) - we won't spill the beans, honest. ;-)corporeal said:
Political youth organisations are (and I say this as part of one) strange and eccentric places.FrankBooth said:I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100274846/todays-young-tories-only-have-eyes-for-each-other/
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.
Oh dear
I live in fear of someone bringing up me tipping Brown to continue as leader until September 2010 mere hours before he stepped down (thought he'd continue as a placeholder for a few months)
It's going to be amusing when we hit the generation where most of us our politicians' youthful indiscretions will be open to us.
I think it'll be a few years of tabloid craziness and then we'll settle down to a more humane view of them.0 -
Not many constituencies with a ski lift or the Cairngorm Mountain Railway ...FrankBooth said:
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.TheScreamingEagles said:
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.corporeal said:Paddpower have got back to me and added the Oakshott polling constituencies to their markets.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/4
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2012/04/danny-alexander-ski-lift-vat-budget/
0 -
@Morris_Dancer
Depends on the motives? There is speculation in some quarters that he ignored what was presented to him originally, in his zeal for "free" schools, and is now going overboard to cover up his earlier mistake. Jealousy of May encroaching on his personal project is also cited.
0
