How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
'Carried out by a group of students'...
Seems legit.
Don't be too sure, I remember in one of the US races - I think it was VA governor - there was loads of professional polling showing the Dem ahead by anything from 7% to 12%, and a single poll by some university's "polling society" showing a 2% squeaker. I wrote off the student poll, assumed it was in the bag and piled my hard-earned bitcoins on the Dem. I won the bet... but it was a 2% squeaker.
I've just had a thought about encouraging young people to vote.
How about including registration and actual voting in the PPE lessons at school?
I assume you're trolling. But I wouldn't put it past Gove!!!! Newsnight Review Legend!!!!!
I shall attempt to calm down now.
I don't see why that is trolling! Including the mechanics of how democracy works in the UK seems a logical part of PPE. Extending this to voter registration when students pass 18 is not a huge leap and having a polling station in school for registered voters seems logical as well.
Apologies I may have inadvertently misled the site :-)
Apparently, PPE is now called PSHCE (Personal, Social, Health, and Citizenship Education)
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
Avery drives an Allegro.
The truth is out.
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
Avery drives an Allegro.
The truth is out.
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
The square wheel version?
Obloid certainly.
'Quartic'.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?
No. It wasn't even a GL.
No air-con.
The windows were manual!
It was so shaming to drive, I had to turn the collars of my car coat up and wear a titfer.
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying it
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
Avery drives an Allegro.
The truth is out.
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
The square wheel version?
Obloid certainly.
'Quartic'.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?
No. It wasn't even a GL.
No air-con.
The windows were manual!
It was so shaming to drive, I had to turn the collars of my car coat up and wear a titfer.
A car without air con or electric windows? Surely you jest. Next you'll be telling us it didn't have an iPod connector.
I remember when the power steering on my car failed, I bitched and moaned, my father pointed out the first 20 years of his driving life, none of his cars had power steering.
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying it
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying it
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?
I've already rung them, someone will call me back either today or tomorrow.
The number I rang was for their Politics department
Eagles my mother frequently extols the virtues of cars with crank handles and non-synchromesh gearboxes. I got a slap once for suggesting her first car came with a man and a flag.
I remember when the power steering on my car failed, I bitched and moaned, my father pointed out the first 20 years of his driving life, none of his cars had power steering.
But they were built differently as they knew there was no power steering.
@DavidL - There's some decent hotels in Leeds, which is about 20 mins away from Ilkley
I'll second that. Leeds also has one of the finest curry houses I have ever visited and the Gents' in the basement of the Leeds Club is an unspoilt Victorian masterpiece. If I was really pushed and forced to give an honest opinion I would have to say I actually quite like Leeds, at least the city centre. The bar at the railway station is a disgrace, though, and best avoided.
Edited Extra bit: The taxi drivers are in the main bloody useless and don't know their own city.
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying it
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?
I've already rung them, someone will call me back either today or tomorrow.
The number I rang was for their Politics department
01509 22299
That in itself is suggestive, as if it was legit you'd expect them to realise they'd get interest. I'm sure we will get to the bottom of it but until we get more info I'm tending to regard it as made up numbers.
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying it
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
Eagles my mother frequently extols the virtues of cars with crank handles and non-synchromesh gearboxes. I got a slap once for suggesting her first car came with a man and a flag.
I remember the time when I bought an ML a few years ago.
The ML doesn't have a traditional gear stick (it has a paddle shift gear stick next to the steering wheel) and it didn't have a traditional handbrake either, the handbrake is a foot handbrake where the clutch is in most manual cars/footrest in automatic cars
Christ when I Dad drove it, it was a scary experience.
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
Avery drives an Allegro.
The truth is out.
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
The square wheel version?
Obloid certainly.
'Quartic'.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?
No. It wasn't even a GL.
No air-con.
The windows were manual!
It was so shaming to drive, I had to turn the collars of my car coat up and wear a titfer.
Ha. I can remember going to a wedding in one, and hiding in the footwell.
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
Not really as we a) don't know the sample period b) don't know the polling question c) the numbers lead to suspiciously exact percentages d) there is only one blog carrying it
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
Anyone want to contact Loughborough University to find out where it came from?
I've already rung them, someone will call me back either today or tomorrow.
The number I rang was for their Politics department
01509 22299
That in itself is suggestive, as if it was legit you'd expect them to realise they'd get interest. I'm sure we will get to the bottom of it but until we get more info I'm tending to regard it as made up numbers.
To be fair, it was the lady who deals with admissions and undergraduates I spoke to.
She was lovely but this was out of her normal field of expertise.
I've done some analysis on the 4 most recent Yougovs, Populus & Ashcroft:
*Others kept constant
Weighted VI:
CON 31.3 LAB 36.2 LD 8.1 UKIP 14.6 OTHERS 9.8
Unweighted VI:
CON 28.2 LAB 37.6 LD 6.9 UKIP 17.5 OTHERS 9.8
Effect of weighting
CON +3.1 LAB -1.5 LD +1.2 UKIP -2.8
The Yougov methodology is predominant (5630 / 7650 respondents), and Ashcroft's weighted VI figures are rounded as I found it impossible to derive his actual weighted VI
Nonetheless there is an assumption that more people will vote Conservative than will say so, and less UKIP in particular.
Eagles yes I guess they aren't used to such things, however if someone had done a legit poll and come up with that conclusion you'd expect it to be publicised on more than merely a blog. I wonder if there are any serious political journos trying to stand this up as it would make a great potential story, students beat established pollsters etc.
One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning. To have a sitting Prime Minister visit four times, to send (supposedly) 1,000 polling day activists (a better example of the law of diminishing returns would be hard to find) for a seat with a 16,000 majority smacks of something akin to panic.
Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.
Are you suggesting Team Blue shouldn't have made any effort in Newark?
Given some of the seat's they defended and lost during their last time in government (someone pointed out yesterday that they even lost Eastbourne after their MP was blown up by the IRA) you can't blame them for throwing everything at Newark and showing they aren't complacent or taking their voters for granted.
How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?
'Carried out by a group of students'...
Seems legit.
Don't be too sure, I remember in one of the US races - I think it was VA governor - there was loads of professional polling showing the Dem ahead by anything from 7% to 12%, and a single poll by some university's "polling society" showing a 2% squeaker. I wrote off the student poll, assumed it was in the bag and piled my hard-earned bitcoins on the Dem. I won the bet... but it was a 2% squeaker.
In the US, local universities often do the best polls because they know the local dynamics the best, and hence how to appropriately weight most accurately.
One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning. To have a sitting Prime Minister visit four times, to send (supposedly) 1,000 polling day activists (a better example of the law of diminishing returns would be hard to find) for a seat with a 16,000 majority smacks of something akin to panic.
Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.
Are you suggesting Team Blue shouldn't have made any effort in Newark?
Given some of the seat's they defended and lost during their last time in government (someone pointed out yesterday that they even lost Eastbourne after their MP was blown up by the IRA) you can't blame them for throwing everything at Newark and showing they aren't complacent or taking their voters for granted.
I think some of the effort is less about this seat and this by-election than sending a number of more general messages. The main message being "we've got game".
@Mr Tyndall Did UKIP-Newark select Mr Helmer as candidate, or was he selected by UKIP-HQ?
A shortlist of 4 candidates was chosen by the UKIP national executive committee and was then put to the local UKIP branch to make a selection after interviews. No idea who the other 3 options were although there were various rumours at the time.
Eagles yes I guess they aren't used to such things, however if someone had done a legit poll and come up with that conclusion you'd expect it to be publicised on more than merely a blog. I wonder if there are any serious political journos trying to stand this up as it would make a great potential story, students beat established pollsters etc.
@DavidL - There's some decent hotels in Leeds, which is about 20 mins away from Ilkley
There's also a very good train connection between Ilkley and the centre of either Leeds or Bradford.
Thanks, the Monday is slightly more problematic as the kids have to get back for school etc. I will explore if I can put the family on the train back to Dundee.
My feeling on that poll is that they've simply polled Newark proper.
Do you not think it more than a little malodorous that all the figures lead to whole number percentages exactly? Not a decimal fraction in sight, no need for rounding at all? If that's a real poll it's the most startlingly freakish set of numbers in history, if it's accurate on top even more so. I just don't buy it.
A friend of mine has recently converted to Kipper-dom. He is a member of the metropolitan elite, and someone who - as recently as 2010 - was very anti-UKIP.
However, it's not all good news for the Kippers. He is in charge of the UK off-shoring business for a large consultancy. He thinks there'll be a big pick-up in off-shoring of call centres and support operations in the event of Brexit: a big opportunity for his company to take jobs out of the UK and ship them off to Poland.
This is the weird thing about the British anti-EU people: They're (officially at least) in favour of free trade, except for labour. In most countries the populist right want to stop both immigrants coming in and jobs going out, but UKIP seem to be perfectly happy for employers to sack low-skilled British people and give their jobs to Poles, as long as the Poles who take their jobs do them in Poland.
Because:
(a) Tradeable jobs are only a fraction of all low income jobs, meaning low income people can adjust by going elsewhere (b) Immigration comes with huge pressure on housing and public services, which doesn't occur in the case of offshoring (c) you don't get the rapid cultural change/alienation effect in the offshoring case
That said, it's interesting that rcs' friend thinks there will be more opportunities for trade with the EU in a brexit case - isn't that the opposite of what we've been traditionally told?
My feeling on that poll is that they've simply polled Newark proper.
Do you not think it more than a little malodorous that all the figures lead to whole number percentages exactly? Not a decimal fraction in sight, no need for rounding at all? If that's a real poll it's the most startlingly freakish set of numbers in history, if it's accurate on top even more so. I just don't buy it.
My feeling on that poll is that they've simply polled Newark proper.
Do you not think it more than a little malodorous that all the figures lead to whole number percentages exactly? Not a decimal fraction in sight, no need for rounding at all? If that's a real poll it's the most startlingly freakish set of numbers in history, if it's accurate on top even more so. I just don't buy it.
Polling by Loughborough students gives kippers the lead?
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Well, bloody hooray. There's at least one minister that gets it: just because you're a Muslim that doesn't support terrorism doesn't mean you're a moderate. This is the trap British governments have been falling into for years - tolerating the indoctrination of kids with some abhorrent and barbaric views, as long as they oppose suicide bombing.
And where's the much-praised Theresa May in this dispute?
"Mr Gove’s stance is understood to have caused unease among cabinet colleagues including the Home Secretary Theresa May and the Communities Secretary Eric Pickles.
In particular both were angry at his decision to appoint Peter Clarke, the former head of Scotland Yard’s counter-terrorism department, to investigate the Trojan Horse claims using ministerial statutory powers. They believed they had an agreement with Mr Gove that his role should be voluntary. Ms May and Mr Gove are said to have had a number of “spats” in cabinet committee meetings."
I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Depends what you define by Conservative.
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
The Tories did manage to win the Enfield Southgate byelection in 1984 and quite comfortably too. Still it's hard to imagine a seat like that being lost even in the worst landslide defeat......
Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating
If someone's got a successful recipe for doing something and you don't get many chances to test it, like Lord Rennard and winning by-elections, you're best just copying everything they do to the smallest detail, even if you can't be sure that all of it really helps.
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Depends what you define by Conservative.
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
Excuse me? What significant strata of 'Conservative Christianity' even in the world's remotest backwater believes in the death penalty for witchcraft? Ridiculous mischeif making.
I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Depends what you define by Conservative.
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
I know plenty of people that identify as conservative Christians. None would support the killing of witches. Meanwhile the views I ascribe to conservative Muslims are frequently expressed and many are actually the law of a number of countries around the world.
We can be objective about this, if you like. Can we say that, of any population, the third most conservative count as "conservative, the third most progressive count as "progressive", and the third in the middle count as "mainstream"? I'm happy to dig up some opinion polls showing conservative views that are held by around a third of Muslims, and we can judge how extreme they are?
Socrates - there's something rather ironic about Michael Gove with his dark ages manichean view of the world always looking for enemies to declare war on getting tough on Muslims who don't want to embrace western modernity. Should we challenge extremism? Yes. Is Michael Gove the person to do it? No!
Mr. Corporeal, I must concur that the UKIP poll has the smell of fish about it. And I don't mean the wholesome, genetically engineered aroma of enormo-haddock.
Mr. Gin, they're keen to prove life is better under a Conservative.
Socrates - there's something rather ironic about Michael Gove with his dark ages manichean view of the world always looking for enemies to declare war on getting tough on Muslims who don't want to embrace western modernity. Should we challenge extremism? Yes. Is Michael Gove the person to do it? No!
Lazy stereotypes from a left-winger trying to brush the issue under the carpet. What a surprise. It's pathetic how people that claim to believe in feminism, secularism etc suddenly go limp-wristed when it comes to conservative Muslims. I guess they just vote Labour in strong enough numbers that you can ignore them?
I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.
Political youth organisations are (and I say this as part of one) strange and eccentric places.
As long as your 'antics' are not published on face-book or other social media corporeal, your political future is safe(ish) - we won't spill the beans, honest. ;-)
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.
"Whitehall sources revealed that behind the scenes the Education Secretary has been pressing David Cameron for months to widen the Government’s definition of Muslim “extremism”."
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Depends what you define by Conservative.
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
I know plenty of people that identify as conservative Christians. None would support the killing of witches. Meanwhile the views I ascribe to conservative Muslims are frequently expressed and many are actually the law of a number of countries around the world.
We can be objective about this, if you like. Can we say that, of any population, the third most conservative count as "conservative, the third most progressive count as "progressive", and the third in the middle count as "mainstream"? I'm happy to dig up some opinion polls showing conservative views that are held by around a third of Muslims, and we can judge how extreme they are?
Witch-hunts/killings are both existent and part of the legal systems in a number of African countries.
There are conservative Christians and then there are conservative Christians.
Can't say I'm aware of any polling on it though.
I suspect cultural background is more influential on such matters than religion per se (noting religion as part of cultural background etc).
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.
Mr. Eagles, kids should be given proper names. Like Morris. (Unless their surname's 'Dancer', of course).
Mr. Smarmeron, indeed, he deserves censure for that, and praise for doing something about it now. As Stannis Baratheon said, the good does nor wash away the bad, nor the bad wash away the good.
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.
Is Danny claiming the credit for the snow now?
Of course - he brings the Chill Winds of Toryism with him whenever he returns to the highlands...
Socrates - there's something rather ironic about Michael Gove with his dark ages manichean view of the world always looking for enemies to declare war on getting tough on Muslims who don't want to embrace western modernity. Should we challenge extremism? Yes. Is Michael Gove the person to do it? No!
Lazy stereotypes from a left-winger trying to brush the issue under the carpet. What a surprise. It's pathetic how people that claim to believe in feminism, secularism etc suddenly go limp-wristed when it comes to conservative Muslims. I guess they just vote Labour in strong enough numbers that you can ignore them?
For the record, I'm in favour of the secularisation of schools generally, or at the least state funded ones.
The Independent reported that the same Home Secretary who sent personally signed copies of the Bible out to schools is pushing for the secularisation of ones in Muslim areas...
Mr. Smarmeron, is it forced? He's being criticised now for being 'too tough' on potential indoctrination of schoolkids. It's an odd thing to attack someone over.
Mr. Corporeal, worth mentioning we've had number of successful Islamic terrorist incidents, and a higher number of foiled or failed incidents, in recent years, compared to a relatively low number of Christian suicide bombers.
I'd be quite happy to see the state only fund secular schools, but when it comes to indoctrination and radicalisation in the UK, Christianity and Islam are on different planets. [And no, I'm not saying it's tremendously widespread in Islam. It only takes a few madmen to cause carnage].
I quite like this article from the Torygraph. Conservative future has descended on Newark and their behaviour would be enough to get Lord Rennard salivating:
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.
Political youth organisations are (and I say this as part of one) strange and eccentric places.
As long as your 'antics' are not published on face-book or other social media corporeal, your political future is safe(ish) - we won't spill the beans, honest. ;-)
Oh dear
I live in fear of someone bringing up me tipping Brown to continue as leader until September 2010 mere hours before he stepped down (thought he'd continue as a placeholder for a few months)
It's going to be amusing when we hit the generation where most of us our politicians' youthful indiscretions will be open to us.
I think it'll be a few years of tabloid craziness and then we'll settle down to a more humane view of them.
Take as much as you can on the SNP winning Inverness.
I'd have two caveats. Firstly the current polling is under the spotlight of the referendum. I wouldn't much trust Scottish GE polling till its over. Secondly don't underestimate Danny's pork barrel politics. He's bringing home the bacon. The Scottish skiing industry has never had it so good.
Not many constituencies with a ski lift or the Cairngorm Mountain Railway ...
Depends on the motives? There is speculation in some quarters that he ignored what was presented to him originally, in his zeal for "free" schools, and is now going overboard to cover up his earlier mistake. Jealousy of May encroaching on his personal project is also cited.
Comments
By Tat?
Apologies I may have inadvertently misled the site :-)
Apparently, PPE is now called PSHCE (Personal, Social, Health, and Citizenship Education)
I noticed that Limp Pole, Reduce your alchohol and recreational drugs intake, and visit an optician, I implore you.
Did you own the Vanden Plas model?
Delivering leaflets from 7 am and other stuff.
(Credit for noticing this should be shared with ToryJim when he and I were looking at this poll and some silly time this morning).
No air-con.
The windows were manual!
It was so shaming to drive, I had to turn the collars of my car coat up and wear a titfer.
Which suggests that even if accurate it would be entirely a fluke because all the above suggests that someone just made it up.
The #bbcqt panel this week: @DavidJonesMP, @leicesterliz, @HywelWilliamsMP, @IsabelHardman and @NevWilshire_SBM.
Some group having a quick puff of the "erb" before another boring meeting?
I remember when the power steering on my car failed, I bitched and moaned, my father pointed out the first 20 years of his driving life, none of his cars had power steering.
The number I rang was for their Politics department
01509 22299
You should have pointed out to your dad that the steering ratios are different.
Might have earned you a thick ear, but it would have been worth it.
So not quite a fair comparison.
Edited Extra bit: The taxi drivers are in the main bloody useless and don't know their own city.
and saw this comment:
"But I'm very disappointed to see our leader Mr Farage is not with us but on holiday in Malta. The People's Army needs it's General!"
Is Farage seriously on holiday? Unbelievable.
The ML doesn't have a traditional gear stick (it has a paddle shift gear stick next to the steering wheel) and it didn't have a traditional handbrake either, the handbrake is a foot handbrake where the clutch is in most manual cars/footrest in automatic cars
Christ when I Dad drove it, it was a scary experience.
She was lovely but this was out of her normal field of expertise.
"Is Farage seriously on holiday? Unbelievable"
Depends on who you are on holiday with? The pic of his companion in the papers might have me searching the late booking section.
Farage is not in the UK whether you describe it as a holiday or not he's certainly enjoying the jollies.
Another thing that strikes me as suspicious about that blog is that there is no link to the "report" of the numbers. Really?
Did UKIP-Newark select Mr Helmer as candidate, or was he selected by UKIP-HQ?
*Others kept constant
Weighted VI:
CON 31.3
LAB 36.2
LD 8.1
UKIP 14.6
OTHERS 9.8
Unweighted VI:
CON 28.2
LAB 37.6
LD 6.9
UKIP 17.5
OTHERS 9.8
Effect of weighting
CON +3.1
LAB -1.5
LD +1.2
UKIP -2.8
The Yougov methodology is predominant (5630 / 7650 respondents), and Ashcroft's weighted VI figures are rounded as I found it impossible to derive his actual weighted VI
Nonetheless there is an assumption that more people will vote Conservative than will say so, and less UKIP in particular.
Workings:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MOuv8qdTYitjNl4XCacfD1WFSN6V9Hto1B8XtpyAmFw/edit?usp=sharing
Given some of the seat's they defended and lost during their last time in government (someone pointed out yesterday that they even lost Eastbourne after their MP was blown up by the IRA) you can't blame them for throwing everything at Newark and showing they aren't complacent or taking their voters for granted.
Surely a quick trip to the "headmasters" office would be sufficient?
Probably best to phone up the politics lecturers directly - http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/phir/staff/
and see what they know. Whether they'll appreciate being cold called...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-accused-of-using-trojan-horse-row-to-push-antiislam-agenda-9488549.html
You will have to vote UKIP to get back the excitement of a visit to the headmasters' study, smarmy.
(a) Tradeable jobs are only a fraction of all low income jobs, meaning low income people can adjust by going elsewhere
(b) Immigration comes with huge pressure on housing and public services, which doesn't occur in the case of offshoring
(c) you don't get the rapid cultural change/alienation effect in the offshoring case
That said, it's interesting that rcs' friend thinks there will be more opportunities for trade with the EU in a brexit case - isn't that the opposite of what we've been traditionally told?
Ozzie could give the number of that acquaintance of his who specializes in such matters to the PM?
Can only be the results of a pub quiz.
“And [Gove] thinks anybody who holds conservative Muslim views is a bit of an extremist."
Conservative Muslim views like believing hands should be chopped off for theft, that women should receive a fraction of the inheritance of men, that democracy is decadent, that women should cover their entire bodies in front of male strangers, that adulterers should be stoned to death, that Saudi Arabia is a society to be praised?
Well, bloody hooray. There's at least one minister that gets it: just because you're a Muslim that doesn't support terrorism doesn't mean you're a moderate. This is the trap British governments have been falling into for years - tolerating the indoctrination of kids with some abhorrent and barbaric views, as long as they oppose suicide bombing.
And where's the much-praised Theresa May in this dispute?
"Mr Gove’s stance is understood to have caused unease among cabinet colleagues including the Home Secretary Theresa May and the Communities Secretary Eric Pickles.
In particular both were angry at his decision to appoint Peter Clarke, the former head of Scotland Yard’s counter-terrorism department, to investigate the Trojan Horse claims using ministerial statutory powers. They believed they had an agreement with Mr Gove that his role should be voluntary. Ms May and Mr Gove are said to have had a number of “spats” in cabinet committee meetings."
Oh, right.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1214564
Inverness
Lab 6/5
LD 5/4
SNP 11/4
Twickenham
LD 1/4
Con 5/2
Cambridge
Lab 2/5
LD 7/4
Wells
Con 2/5
LD 7/4
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100274846/todays-young-tories-only-have-eyes-for-each-other/
I hope they enjoy themselves in the accomodation central office provides them with, but remember it's the bankers who are paying for it.
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
As we said the veracity of the poll can't be checked because it's not been published but it reflects what bookies are saying
— Bloggers 4 UKIP (@bloggers4ukip) June 5, 2014
Conservative christianity goes to killing 'witches' etc.
Excuse me? What significant strata of 'Conservative Christianity' even in the world's remotest backwater believes in the death penalty for witchcraft? Ridiculous mischeif making.
We can be objective about this, if you like. Can we say that, of any population, the third most conservative count as "conservative, the third most progressive count as "progressive", and the third in the middle count as "mainstream"? I'm happy to dig up some opinion polls showing conservative views that are held by around a third of Muslims, and we can judge how extreme they are?
Mr. Gin, they're keen to prove life is better under a Conservative.
I do hope they are using condoms, otherwise a "Future Conservative" government might overspend on the STD budget?
There seems to be evidence pointing to Gove ignoring it back in 2010.
How times change?
"Mummy, Daddy, why did you name me Newark?"
There are conservative Christians and then there are conservative Christians.
Can't say I'm aware of any polling on it though.
I suspect cultural background is more influential on such matters than religion per se (noting religion as part of cultural background etc).
Mr. Smarmeron, indeed, he deserves censure for that, and praise for doing something about it now. As Stannis Baratheon said, the good does nor wash away the bad, nor the bad wash away the good.
Danny has been "snowing" us all for years. He claimed to be a LibDem .
I've maxed out BOTH the SNP and the Lib Dems in Inverness on Paddy Power.
SNP @ 11-4;
LD @ 6-4
I think the value is in laying Labour !
Repentance is only true if it is not forced.
The Independent reported that the same Home Secretary who sent personally signed copies of the Bible out to schools is pushing for the secularisation of ones in Muslim areas...
For the Lib Dems in Scotland next year they will be like the Romans at the Battle of Arausio
Nick Clegg = Quintus Servilius Caepio
Danny Alexander = Gnaeus Mallius Maximus
ECB cuts rate on deposit facility to -0.1%.
I'd be quite happy to see the state only fund secular schools, but when it comes to indoctrination and radicalisation in the UK, Christianity and Islam are on different planets. [And no, I'm not saying it's tremendously widespread in Islam. It only takes a few madmen to cause carnage].
Oh dear
I live in fear of someone bringing up me tipping Brown to continue as leader until September 2010 mere hours before he stepped down (thought he'd continue as a placeholder for a few months)
It's going to be amusing when we hit the generation where most of us our politicians' youthful indiscretions will be open to us.
I think it'll be a few years of tabloid craziness and then we'll settle down to a more humane view of them.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2012/04/danny-alexander-ski-lift-vat-budget/
Depends on the motives? There is speculation in some quarters that he ignored what was presented to him originally, in his zeal for "free" schools, and is now going overboard to cover up his earlier mistake. Jealousy of May encroaching on his personal project is also cited.