I still think UKIP will get no seats next year. In a 65-70% turnout election there simply isn't the minimum 35% of voters in any seat that actually likes them either as people or their policies (which seem to swing from being quite nasty to being quite wishy washy with little common sense or practicality in between)
You're confounding the daily and Sunday editions. The daily edition is just as pro-Union as it ever was, with some very oddly contorted writing in the "reportage", though the opinion and comment pages are rather more balanced.
I still think UKIP will get no seats next year. In a 65-70% turnout election there simply isn't the minimum 35% of voters in any seat that actually likes them either as people or their policies (which seem to swing from being quite nasty to being quite wishy washy with little common sense or practicality in between)
True, although 28-29% can do the trick in a 4 party seat as shown in Scotland. That's achievable in a handful
Perhaps CD13 should be voting Green? They're annoying for us Labour people, but coherent and distinctive - certainly their programme is more developed than UKIP.
I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.
Perhaps CD13 should be voting Green? They're annoying for us Labour people, but coherent and distinctive - certainly their programme is more developed than UKIP.
I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.
Why do I have an image of you on Political Weakest Link shouting 'bank!' repeatedly at 10pm every night?! ;-)
Sharapova and Bouchard should be an interesting match (2pm). Reckon it'll be a little while before Bouchard can beat her, though. Caught a bit of Murray and Monfils (during Farscape ad breaks) last night. Unfortunately, Murray's up against Nadal. Not impossible, but unlikely he'll beat the Spaniard.
Perhaps CD13 should be voting Green? They're annoying for us Labour people, but coherent and distinctive - certainly their programme is more developed than UKIP.
I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.
I would not go so far as to describe Green policies as 'coherent'
Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment? Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?
Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.
They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)
Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-). However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.
Perhaps CD13 should be voting Green? They're annoying for us Labour people, but coherent and distinctive - certainly their programme is more developed than UKIP.
I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.
Whilst there may not be many planned political events to change voting intention (some of course come totally out of the blue) what does change in the year to a general election is that people start to switch on and take politics more seriously . They start to ask do they really want to change the government (as opposed to having a moan and a whinge about it) . Whlst this may not switch many voters between Labour and Conservative it could switch voters from UKIP to Conservative
Probably not, and it's nothing to do with University fees or broken promises. They seem to have spent half their four years in government obsessing about a weird form of PR that was neither use nor ornament, and the other half banging on about HoL reform. Both subjects to which I'm supremely indifferent.
You could try following politics and discover this is untrue.
Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment? Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?
Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.
They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)
Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-). However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.
Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there. Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....
Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)
I can't vote Tory for tribal reasons even though I know they don't really eat babies, and Labour is led by a weirdo schoolboy. Ukip are a party of strange people with no policies, but the other protest party is a group of flat-earthers.
Yet abstaining is a negation of democracy.
CD13
You and I share a problem.
No matter how many people tell me that Japanese cars are better than all competition; no matter how many respected and knowledgeable publications review them favourably; no matter how quickly they establish themselves as market leaders, I will never buy one.
I won't even test drive them.
It is not just unthinking prejudice. It is culture.
We can change, but very slowly. British racing green, walnut veneer and the gentlemen's club interiors of the Jaguars and Rovers, so beloved by my parent's generation now seems distinctly dodgy, almost kipperish. It was in the 1980s that the Bauhaus minimalism of the Beemers, Mercs and Golf GTis took over, with their metallic silvers and aluminium wheels.
I am sure we can see the consequences of this generational shift in Newark today. Helmer, we know, drives a British racing green Jaguar. I don't know what Jenrick drives but I would lightly bet all on it being German.
My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage. Between Europe and Asia, but nudging on the borders of Germany.
A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
Mr. Smarmeron, the Lib Dems and Labour? Can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are already stretching credulity by their idiotic differentiation strategy whilst at the same time trying to claim credit for all the lovely things the Coalition did. A joint ticket might tempt some, but would also prompt the obvious question: Why did you form a coalition with one party and then run on a joint ticket with another.
If you mean UKIP and the Conservatives, that'll never happen. It'd harm both parties.
What Mr Dancer means by stretching credulity is he can't believe any of the good things the coalition did could have come from the Lib Dems, even those that definitively did (and have subsequently had Conservatives trying to appropriate credit for them).
The joint ticket law was purely a bit of housekeeping, the main and almost entire effect will be for the joint Labour/Co-operative candidates.
Labour 33.7% (-2.1) Conservative 31.3% (+2.2) UKIP 15.1% (-1.2) Lib Dem 9.5% (no change) Implied Others 10.4% (+1.1)
That is interesting, because it reminds us that the big rise in UKIP's support actually happened over a year ago and has since been fairly steady, rather than being a rapid rise in the last few weeks, which is the impression many people have. Although one could spin that as 'UKIP loses momentum', I think a better assessment would be that it is actually quite encouraging for UKIP, as it implies a reasonable degree of durability in their support.
Will it endure as the GE approaches, and if not, will the drift back to the main parties be symmetrical? It is probably no exaggeration to say that those are the two big questions, the answers to which will decide the 2015 result.
Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment? Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?
Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.
They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)
Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-). However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.
Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there. Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....
Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)
FPTP makes it a lottery, Farage reckons he might have the balance of power with two dozen MPs. It's more likely he'll have zero or maybe a couple if he's lucky (and that even if Helmer wins today). The Greens had one seat in this parliament and they didn't figure in coalition building. If the Lib Dems get 30 seats and parliament is hung they may be able to influence things if they want to. It's most likely that the arithmetic will make only one coalition possible and even if that's not the case then personalities and politics may rule that out (I'm thinking Labour / LD). Come May 2015 how will Kipper voters react to getting zero or a pitiful number of MPs for all their hard work and high hopes? If the LDs go into opposition under a new leader they could start picking up protest votes again and UKIP could fade away.
The daughter of a Raith Rovers scout who grew up to become a queen of crime fiction was announced last night as the official sponsor of the Fife football club.
Val McDermid, whose gory novels inspired television’s Wire in the Blood, will have valmcdermid.com, her website, emblazoned across the players’ shirts next season as they go toe-to-toe with some of the most famous names in the Scottish Championship.
Have to say I'm more interested in events at Epsom rather than Newark. The Oaks looks very open - MARVELLOUS looked good at The Curragh and any rain will help while TAGHROODA won a weak Listed race at Newmarket but did it well.
I've been a supporter of KINGSTON HILL for the Derby since the Guineas and the form of the race looks solid. He shouldn't beat AUSTRALIA but he looked value to me at 16/1 when I got on e/w.
Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment? Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?
Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.
They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)
Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-). However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.
Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there. Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....
Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)
FPTP makes it a lottery, Farage reckons he might have the balance of power with two dozen MPs. It's more likely he'll have zero or maybe a couple if he's lucky (and that even if Helmer wins today). The Greens had one seat in this parliament and they didn't figure in coalition building. If the Lib Dems get 30 seats and parliament is hung they may be able to influence things if they want to. It's most likely that the arithmetic will make only one coalition possible and even if that's not the case then personalities and politics may rule that out (I'm thinking Labour / LD). Come May 2015 how will Kipper voters react to getting zero or a pitiful number of MPs for all their hard work and high hopes? If the LDs go into opposition under a new leader they could start picking up protest votes again and UKIP could fade away.
All fair points. I think 30 is a stretch for the Lib Dems though, I'm going in at under 20
A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
Newark may not have an abundance of country houses, Oblitus, but it sure has a fine late Palladian Town Hall.
If I were Jenrick, I would celebrate victory by ousting the council and setting up a family home in the Hall. One of my first actions after moving in would be to invite Richard Tyndall for tea.
That is interesting, because it reminds us that the big rise in UKIP's support actually happened over a year ago and has since been fairly steady, rather than being a rapid rise in the last few weeks, which is the impression many people have.
Yes, the big rise in UKIP support occurred after the Vetogasm wore off, the Omnishambles budget rumbled on and a series of by-elections got them noticed by the mainstream media.
The poll shares in May last year, with changes from the peak of the Vetogasm* in January 2012, were:
* This comparison is in some ways a bit unfair on the Tories. If we take the differences compared to November 2012, Labour's peak during this Parliament, then the changes over the following six months were:
A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
Newark may not have an abundance of country houses, Oblitus, but it sure has a fine late Palladian Town Hall.
If I were Jenrick, I would celebrate victory by ousting the council and setting up a family home in the Hall. One of my first actions after moving in would be to invite Richard Tyndall for tea.
One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning. To have a sitting Prime Minister visit four times, to send (supposedly) 1,000 polling day activists (a better example of the law of diminishing returns would be hard to find) for a seat with a 16,000 majority smacks of something akin to panic.
Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.
A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
There are more than 3 former airfields. There are former airfields with runways still existing at at Ossington, Orston, Wigsley and Plungar as well as the now destroyed airfield at Balderton. Just outside the constituency there is also the airfield at Langar.
These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.
1) Conservatives. Anything other than a win would be awful for them. Really awful. A narrow win should cause serious concern in the blue ranks (but probably wouldn't, because they seem in a fey mood at present).
2) UKIP. They've played the expectations game awfully. Anything above 20% would objectively be a great result, given where they started, but that's not how the media would see it. A win would be incredible and the Kippers would justifiably be unbearable if that happened.
3) Labour. At the beginning of the campaign, our host was backing them to win. Given the starting point, that wasn't stupid. It looks as if Labour may go backwards. This should cause soul-searching as one more set of constituencies get added to the list of constituencies that Labour isn't interested in winning any more, but it almost certainly won't, because too many Labour supporters seem anaesthetised to the risks.
4) Lib Dems. If they hold their deposit, they'll be very happy. That's how desperate they've become.
Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment? Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?
Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.
They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)
Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-). However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.
Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there. Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....
Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)
FPTP makes it a lottery, Farage reckons he might have the balance of power with two dozen MPs. It's more likely he'll have zero or maybe a couple if he's lucky (and that even if Helmer wins today). The Greens had one seat in this parliament and they didn't figure in coalition building. If the Lib Dems get 30 seats and parliament is hung they may be able to influence things if they want to. It's most likely that the arithmetic will make only one coalition possible and even if that's not the case then personalities and politics may rule that out (I'm thinking Labour / LD). Come May 2015 how will Kipper voters react to getting zero or a pitiful number of MPs for all their hard work and high hopes? If the LDs go into opposition under a new leader they could start picking up protest votes again and UKIP could fade away.
All fair points. I think 30 is a stretch for the Lib Dems though, I'm going in at under 20
As I said it's a bit of a lottery, even at 20 they can swing 40 by joining or opposing a coalition. This election is different in that the LDs don't HAVE to join a coalition with the Tories (or Labour) as that did have to in 2010 - in order to save the country from an economic meltdown. They would be better off as a party if either the figures didn't stack up or if the party with most seats chose not to negotiate. Under those circumstances I'd expect UKIP to fade and the LDs to re-establish.
I have a House of Hardy solid titanium fly reel, and an Anwick hand built sea trout rod, a pleasure to use, but impractical for most of my fishing trips. It lies unused for years at a time.
A friend of mine has recently converted to Kipper-dom. He is a member of the metropolitan elite, and someone who - as recently as 2010 - was very anti-UKIP.
However, it's not all good news for the Kippers. He is in charge of the UK off-shoring business for a large consultancy. He thinks there'll be a big pick-up in off-shoring of call centres and support operations in the event of Brexit: a big opportunity for his company to take jobs out of the UK and ship them off to Poland.
A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
There are more than 3 former airfields. There are former airfields with runways still existing at at Ossington, Orston, Wigsley and Plungar as well as the now destroyed airfield at Balderton. Just outside the constituency there is also the airfield at Langar.
These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.
Eden Hall is a Health farm.
Thanks Richard.
I can see the old airfields at Ossington, Wigsley and Langar, but the ones at Orston and Plungar don't seem to be visible with google maps.
Mr Fett, I think you should call politicians silly names. It may not be intelligent or grown-up but they deserve it. I don't take it too seriously even if I should
Although they probably get more than their fair share of insults as it's often the enthusiastic supporters that cause the rancour. I suspect Owen Jones puts off more than he recruits (as did tim, despite, or maybe because of, his sharp wit). And even Mark Senior can be acerbic at times.
If it means a lot to you, it's easy to fall into the trap of blaming someone for not sharing your viewpoint.
I've made one or two bets since lurking here, but I see it more as an amusing dip into the world of politics. What an odd career choice politics is for a grown-up, though.
Benefits of having loads of helpers in a byelection
1. Train and give experience for the GE 2. Enthuse activists to campaign 3. Message that hard work delivers 4. Generate camardarie 5. Show the other parties that you can put people on the ground
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
Avery drives an Allegro.
The truth is out.
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
Benefits of having loads of helpers in a byelection
1. Train and give experience for the GE 2. Enthuse activists to campaign 3. Message that hard work delivers 4. Generate camardarie 5. Show the other parties that you can put people on the ground
To be fair, most of the Conservative activists seem to be MPs or prospective MPs who basically are being pressganged into doing their bit. My point is that unless you have something useful for 1,000 activists to do they finish up being more problem than they are worth.
On Polling Day, you can do your early morning leaflet, telling and knock up through the day. There's no point canvassing at that stage and presumably the postal supporters have been identified and their votes are already "in the mail bag".
Indeed, doing too much calling too often can irritate voters who will come out for you but want to have their dinner and watch Eastenders first.
200 activists (if experienced and well used) can be more useful than 1,000 and two dozen six weeks before Polling can be infinitely better than 1,000 on Polling Day. All this is the Conservative Party trying to show off its virility and trying to intimidate UKIP and other parties.
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
Avery drives an Allegro.
The truth is out.
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
You want politicians to tell the truth! It would lead to the downfall of the country. You should be marched to the Tower then hung drawn and quartered for such sedition.
1) Conservatives. Anything other than a win would be awful for them. Really awful. A narrow win should cause serious concern in the blue ranks (but probably wouldn't, because they seem in a fey mood at present).
2) UKIP. They've played the expectations game awfully. Anything above 20% would objectively be a great result, given where they started, but that's not how the media would see it. A win would be incredible and the Kippers would justifiably be unbearable if that happened.
3) Labour. At the beginning of the campaign, our host was backing them to win. Given the starting point, that wasn't stupid. It looks as if Labour may go backwards. This should cause soul-searching as one more set of constituencies get added to the list of constituencies that Labour isn't interested in winning any more, but it almost certainly won't, because too many Labour supporters seem anaesthetised to the risks.
4) Lib Dems. If they hold their deposit, they'll be very happy. That's how desperate they've become.
So, the Conservative will be unhappy with their smaller win; UKIP will be unhappy with their likely second place; Labour will be unhappy as they didn't try (no matter the result); and the LibDems will be unhappy unless they manage to keep their deposit.
A friend of mine has recently converted to Kipper-dom. He is a member of the metropolitan elite, and someone who - as recently as 2010 - was very anti-UKIP.
However, it's not all good news for the Kippers. He is in charge of the UK off-shoring business for a large consultancy. He thinks there'll be a big pick-up in off-shoring of call centres and support operations in the event of Brexit: a big opportunity for his company to take jobs out of the UK and ship them off to Poland.
This is the weird thing about the British anti-EU people: They're (officially at least) in favour of free trade, except for labour. In most countries the populist right want to stop both immigrants coming in and jobs going out, but UKIP seem to be perfectly happy for employers to sack low-skilled British people and give their jobs to Poles, as long as the Poles who take their jobs do them in Poland.
Having also owned an "eggroll" I am tied between the lower trunnions, and the suspension, for the Engineering Joke Award. An engineer can do for a shilling that which others would do for a pound, the caveat being that is should at least work reliably.
I've just had a thought about encouraging young people to vote.
How about including registration and actual voting in the PPE lessons at school?
I assume you're trolling. But I wouldn't put it past Gove!!!! Newsnight Review Legend!!!!!
I shall attempt to calm down now.
I don't see why that is trolling! Including the mechanics of how democracy works in the UK seems a logical part of PPE. Extending this to voter registration when students pass 18 is not a huge leap and having a polling station in school for registered voters seems logical as well.
One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning. To have a sitting Prime Minister visit four times, to send (supposedly) 1,000 polling day activists (a better example of the law of diminishing returns would be hard to find) for a seat with a 16,000 majority smacks of something akin to panic.
Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.
Lord Rennard must have switched sides, Stodge.
I can think of no other reason for the Tory activists being so enervated.
We just need Mark Senior to follow to get the votes counted and recorded accurately.
1) Conservatives. Anything other than a win would be awful for them. Really awful. A narrow win should cause serious concern in the blue ranks (but probably wouldn't, because they seem in a fey mood at present).
2) UKIP. They've played the expectations game awfully. Anything above 20% would objectively be a great result, given where they started, but that's not how the media would see it. A win would be incredible and the Kippers would justifiably be unbearable if that happened.
3) Labour. At the beginning of the campaign, our host was backing them to win. Given the starting point, that wasn't stupid. It looks as if Labour may go backwards. This should cause soul-searching as one more set of constituencies get added to the list of constituencies that Labour isn't interested in winning any more, but it almost certainly won't, because too many Labour supporters seem anaesthetised to the risks.
4) Lib Dems. If they hold their deposit, they'll be very happy. That's how desperate they've become.
So, the Conservative will be unhappy with their smaller win; UKIP will be unhappy with their likely second place; Labour will be unhappy as they didn't try (no matter the result); and the LibDems will be unhappy unless they manage to keep their deposit.
Aren't you a ray of sunshine :-)
I'm a glass half empty man. Even Bus Pass Elvis is unlikely to be able to draw much consolation from the result tonight.
A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
There are more than 3 former airfields. There are former airfields with runways still existing at at Ossington, Orston, Wigsley and Plungar as well as the now destroyed airfield at Balderton. Just outside the constituency there is also the airfield at Langar.
These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.
Eden Hall is a Health farm.
Thanks Richard.
I can see the old airfields at Ossington, Wigsley and Langar, but the ones at Orston and Plungar don't seem to be visible with google maps.
The one at Orston is near Bottesford. You might find it by putting in Bottesford Airfield into the search criteria. It was used by Schlumberger for many decades as a training school and I believe it still has a functioning rig on it.
1) Conservatives. Anything other than a win would be awful for them. Really awful. A narrow win should cause serious concern in the blue ranks (but probably wouldn't, because they seem in a fey mood at present).
2) UKIP. They've played the expectations game awfully. Anything above 20% would objectively be a great result, given where they started, but that's not how the media would see it. A win would be incredible and the Kippers would justifiably be unbearable if that happened.
3) Labour. At the beginning of the campaign, our host was backing them to win. Given the starting point, that wasn't stupid. It looks as if Labour may go backwards. This should cause soul-searching as one more set of constituencies get added to the list of constituencies that Labour isn't interested in winning any more, but it almost certainly won't, because too many Labour supporters seem anaesthetised to the risks.
4) Lib Dems. If they hold their deposit, they'll be very happy. That's how desperate they've become.
Antifrank,
if UKIP win I promise not to be an more unbearable than normal - which I know you might not consider much of an improvement :-)
More to the point if UKIP win I will have utterly failed in my assessment of my home town so will certainly not be crowing about it.
A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
There are more than 3 former airfields. There are former airfields with runways still existing at at Ossington, Orston, Wigsley and Plungar as well as the now destroyed airfield at Balderton. Just outside the constituency there is also the airfield at Langar.
These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.
Eden Hall is a Health farm.
Thanks Richard.
I can see the old airfields at Ossington, Wigsley and Langar, but the ones at Orston and Plungar don't seem to be visible with google maps.
The one at Orston is near Bottesford. You might find it by putting in Bottesford Airfield into the search criteria. It was used by Schlumberger for many decades as a training school and I believe it still has a functioning rig on it.
For comparison, Eastleigh, where UKIP previously came closest to winning a by-election, had a turnout of 52.8%, which I think is the highest in this Parliament.
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
Avery drives an Allegro.
The truth is out.
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
For comparison, Eastleigh, where UKIP previously came closest to winning a by-election, had a turnout of 52.8%. The highest in this Parliament was the 55.7% in Mid Ulster, and Bradford West was the only other to reach 50%.
Completely off topic my daughter is signing up for the open day at Durham on 5th July 2014. It crosses my mind that this puts me in roughly the right area of country for the proposed PB get together which I think was for that night?
Can anyone confirm that this is still going ahead and, if so, where and when? I fear accommodation in the area may be somewhat limited as a result of those obsessed with the world before the invention of motor engine and would like to make some arrangements soon if possible.
I would also be interested to learn who is likely to make it.
Completely off topic my daughter is signing up for the open day at Durham on 5th July 2014. It crosses my mind that this puts me in roughly the right area of country for the proposed PB get together which I think was for that night?
Can anyone confirm that this is still going ahead and, if so, where and when? I fear accommodation in the area may be somewhat limited as a result of those obsessed with the world before the invention of motor engine and would like to make some arrangements soon if possible.
I would also be interested to learn who is likely to make it.
Comments
That's achievable in a handful
Bah. Sophie Raworth and Andrew Neil should be first in the queue to replace Dimbleby, not Huw Edwards.
I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.
However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.
Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....
Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)
You and I share a problem.
No matter how many people tell me that Japanese cars are better than all competition; no matter how many respected and knowledgeable publications review them favourably; no matter how quickly they establish themselves as market leaders, I will never buy one.
I won't even test drive them.
It is not just unthinking prejudice. It is culture.
We can change, but very slowly. British racing green, walnut veneer and the gentlemen's club interiors of the Jaguars and Rovers, so beloved by my parent's generation now seems distinctly dodgy, almost kipperish. It was in the 1980s that the Bauhaus minimalism of the Beemers, Mercs and Golf GTis took over, with their metallic silvers and aluminium wheels.
I am sure we can see the consequences of this generational shift in Newark today. Helmer, we know, drives a British racing green Jaguar. I don't know what Jenrick drives but I would lightly bet all on it being German.
My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage. Between Europe and Asia, but nudging on the borders of Germany.
You are getting there CD13.
It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.
There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...
There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?
* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.
The joint ticket law was purely a bit of housekeeping, the main and almost entire effect will be for the joint Labour/Co-operative candidates.
Will it endure as the GE approaches, and if not, will the drift back to the main parties be symmetrical? It is probably no exaggeration to say that those are the two big questions, the answers to which will decide the 2015 result.
"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."
You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?
Just too tolerant of immigrants from the A8 countries.
Give me the benefit of your wisdom, who in economic terms gains the most from immigration? (other than the immigrants themselves)
not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.
Thus, and in conclusion:
All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)
If the Lib Dems get 30 seats and parliament is hung they may be able to influence things if they want to. It's most likely that the arithmetic will make only one coalition possible and even if that's not the case then personalities and politics may rule that out (I'm thinking Labour / LD).
Come May 2015 how will Kipper voters react to getting zero or a pitiful number of MPs for all their hard work and high hopes? If the LDs go into opposition under a new leader they could start picking up protest votes again and UKIP could fade away.
The daughter of a Raith Rovers scout who grew up to become a queen of crime fiction was announced last night as the official sponsor of the Fife football club.
Val McDermid, whose gory novels inspired television’s Wire in the Blood, will have valmcdermid.com, her website, emblazoned across the players’ shirts next season as they go toe-to-toe with some of the most famous names in the Scottish Championship.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4109506.ece
Is this the day when the Balloon burst's on UKIP?
Have to say I'm more interested in events at Epsom rather than Newark. The Oaks looks very open - MARVELLOUS looked good at The Curragh and any rain will help while TAGHROODA won a weak Listed race at Newmarket but did it well.
I've been a supporter of KINGSTON HILL for the Derby since the Guineas and the form of the race looks solid. He shouldn't beat AUSTRALIA but he looked value to me at 16/1 when I got on e/w.
I think 30 is a stretch for the Lib Dems though, I'm going in at under 20
If I were Jenrick, I would celebrate victory by ousting the council and setting up a family home in the Hall. One of my first actions after moving in would be to invite Richard Tyndall for tea.
The poll shares in May last year, with changes from the peak of the Vetogasm* in January 2012, were:
Labour 35.8% (-1.8)
Conservative 29.1% (-9.4)
UKIP 16.3% (+12.3)
Lib Dems 9.5% (-2.0)
Implied Others 9.3% (+0.9)
* This comparison is in some ways a bit unfair on the Tories. If we take the differences compared to November 2012, Labour's peak during this Parliament, then the changes over the following six months were:
Labour -6.4
Conservative -3.1
UKIP +9.1
Lib Dems -0.4
Implied Others +0.8
Test 12 sees to be a bit of suck it and see. No faith in Downton at all. Nor in Cook.
Revolting Kippers Quelled
Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.
You have all the zeal of a recent convert to the Greens from nasty corporatist globalism.
Branding is all.
Can you imagine Smarmy travelling with a Louis Vuitton trunk?
These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.
Eden Hall is a Health farm.
How about including registration and actual voting in the PPE lessons at school?
1) Conservatives. Anything other than a win would be awful for them. Really awful. A narrow win should cause serious concern in the blue ranks (but probably wouldn't, because they seem in a fey mood at present).
2) UKIP. They've played the expectations game awfully. Anything above 20% would objectively be a great result, given where they started, but that's not how the media would see it. A win would be incredible and the Kippers would justifiably be unbearable if that happened.
3) Labour. At the beginning of the campaign, our host was backing them to win. Given the starting point, that wasn't stupid. It looks as if Labour may go backwards. This should cause soul-searching as one more set of constituencies get added to the list of constituencies that Labour isn't interested in winning any more, but it almost certainly won't, because too many Labour supporters seem anaesthetised to the risks.
4) Lib Dems. If they hold their deposit, they'll be very happy. That's how desperate they've become.
This election is different in that the LDs don't HAVE to join a coalition with the Tories (or Labour) as that did have to in 2010 - in order to save the country from an economic meltdown. They would be better off as a party if either the figures didn't stack up or if the party with most seats chose not to negotiate. Under those circumstances I'd expect UKIP to fade and the LDs to re-establish.
I have a House of Hardy solid titanium fly reel, and an Anwick hand built sea trout rod, a pleasure to use, but impractical for most of my fishing trips.
It lies unused for years at a time.
I would however be very Cameroon and IDSite on interventionary controls and safeguards to smooth the transition to unfettered flows of labour.
It is this difficult middle bit that is politically complex but socially and economically vital.
I shall attempt to calm down now.
A very political answer Avery, A vague ramble that admits nothing, but sounds good to your fellow ramblers.
A friend of mine has recently converted to Kipper-dom. He is a member of the metropolitan elite, and someone who - as recently as 2010 - was very anti-UKIP.
However, it's not all good news for the Kippers. He is in charge of the UK off-shoring business for a large consultancy. He thinks there'll be a big pick-up in off-shoring of call centres and support operations in the event of Brexit: a big opportunity for his company to take jobs out of the UK and ship them off to Poland.
Another downside is trying to fit them onto a motorcycle.
I can see the old airfields at Ossington, Wigsley and Langar, but the ones at Orston and Plungar don't seem to be visible with google maps.
Mr Fett, I think you should call politicians silly names. It may not be intelligent or grown-up but they deserve it. I don't take it too seriously even if I should
Although they probably get more than their fair share of insults as it's often the enthusiastic supporters that cause the rancour. I suspect Owen Jones puts off more than he recruits (as did tim, despite, or maybe because of, his sharp wit). And even Mark Senior can be acerbic at times.
If it means a lot to you, it's easy to fall into the trap of blaming someone for not sharing your viewpoint.
I've made one or two bets since lurking here, but I see it more as an amusing dip into the world of politics. What an odd career choice politics is for a grown-up, though.
1. Train and give experience for the GE
2. Enthuse activists to campaign
3. Message that hard work delivers
4. Generate camardarie
5. Show the other parties that you can put people on the ground
I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.
And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.
But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.
That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.
(I guess the voters will)
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …
On Polling Day, you can do your early morning leaflet, telling and knock up through the day. There's no point canvassing at that stage and presumably the postal supporters have been identified and their votes are already "in the mail bag".
Indeed, doing too much calling too often can irritate voters who will come out for you but want to have their dinner and watch Eastenders first.
200 activists (if experienced and well used) can be more useful than 1,000 and two dozen six weeks before Polling can be infinitely better than 1,000 on Polling Day. All this is the Conservative Party trying to show off its virility and trying to intimidate UKIP and other parties.
It's a bit sad really...
Time to return to your roots.
You want politicians to tell the truth!
It would lead to the downfall of the country.
You should be marched to the Tower then hung drawn and quartered for such sedition.
UKIP will be unhappy with their likely second place;
Labour will be unhappy as they didn't try (no matter the result);
and the LibDems will be unhappy unless they manage to keep their deposit.
Aren't you a ray of sunshine :-)
Having also owned an "eggroll" I am tied between the lower trunnions, and the suspension, for the Engineering Joke Award.
An engineer can do for a shilling that which others would do for a pound, the caveat being that is should at least work reliably.
I can think of no other reason for the Tory activists being so enervated.
We just need Mark Senior to follow to get the votes counted and recorded accurately.
This might help for Plungar
http://www.ukairfields.org.uk/uploads/7/0/8/5/7085670/aviation_in_notts.pdf
if UKIP win I promise not to be an more unbearable than normal - which I know you might not consider much of an improvement :-)
More to the point if UKIP win I will have utterly failed in my assessment of my home town so will certainly not be crowing about it.
Seems legit.
'One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning.'
Along with the Lib Dem bitterness?
'Carried out by a group of students'...
As long as it wasn't sponsored by a well known betting chain?
Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"
Is the road to anarchy.
They didn't have a single Don't Know/Refused to say.
That I think is unparalleled in polling history.
Can anyone confirm that this is still going ahead and, if so, where and when? I fear accommodation in the area may be somewhat limited as a result of those obsessed with the world before the invention of motor engine and would like to make some arrangements soon if possible.
I would also be interested to learn who is likely to make it.
1,000 activists in the seat since 4:45am today.