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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continues
The pageantry of the Queen’s Speech and the political debate following it returns those following British politics back to a safe and familiar comfort zone: everything looks much as it always has. It’s almost as if last month never happened.
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*titters*
The twitter account of the author of that blog describes himself as UKIP black-ops.
Lord Feldman and Grant Shapps to lead Tory 'dawn raids' in Newark to get the vote out ahead of the by-election"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10875934/Tories-flood-Newark-with-a-thousand-activists-in-last-ditch-push-for-votes.html
Do we know who will be accompanying College in his trip to Newark?
Maybe some kind gentleman is offering UKIP a crutch to lean om?
All of which makes me even more curious to watch it, just to see how bad it was.
Going off on a tangent, I was surprised to find that my brother is familiar with the Johnny Nice Painter sketches on "The Fast Show", even though he has lived in the USA since 2001. He immediately got the reference when I started saying things like "The Chasm of Clams" and "Equestrian cement!" to him.
R.I.P. James (Twisleton-Wykeham-)Fiennes, whose funeral my brother will attend later today.
Con: +2.2
Lab: -2.1
LD: -
UKIP: -1.2
So it will be interesting to see whether Labour in 2014 enjoy the recovery they did in 2013 (+2.3 points by July).
On the Newark "Loughborough University Poll" I have seen it described as a poll by "a group of students at Loughborough University" - so the jury must be out in how robust their technique is.
And in other news, Kim Jings-Eck rumbles on, with demands for apologies....tho as Alan Cochrane observes:
And if the referendum debate is now plumbing new depths, Mr Salmond need look no further than his own mirror for the principal culprit.
He has stood by for years whilst his followers have traduced and grossly insulted all and everyone who opposed them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10876686/Salmond-has-stood-by-while-followers-have-thrown-insults.html
Purple! Purple! Like the endless darkness of space that leads to the chasm of clams... The gulls have plucked out my eyes... we crawl on our keens towards our doom...
http://order-order.com/2014/05/25/ukip-top-poll-in-newark/
It was a very large sample taken on 22nd May and organised by the electoral commission....
In any case, the main point is that the Con-Lab-LD system is now so far from a zero-sum game that it's barely a system at all - only the limiting fact of FPTP makes it so and with UKIP polling in the mid-teens, that final assumption is at risk should they rise still further. Conventional thinking would say that in the last year of a parliament, there should be a swing back to some sort of balance, implying a move both to the Westminster Three and to the Tories in particular. I'd agree, but we're in unchartered waters and the risk profile of what might happen is far wider than in the past (or alternatively, the old certainties are a lot less certain than they used to be).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27309446
Whoever wins the Referendum in September still has to address these problems in Glasgow. I'm not sure that the touchy feely theatre workshops are enough. Grim reading.
Found looking at the YG 'best PM' crosstabs. There is an argument that in the run up to 2015 we will see a similar movement as we saw in Scotland. I'm not sure the data backs that up though. Miliband is in an Iain Greyesque position but Cameron is nowhere near Salmond's level of popularity.
In the latest YG poll Cameron maintains his 35 - 21 lead over Miliband. However from the crosstabs we see the following:
Con VI - Cameron 96 Miliband 0 Clegg 0 DK 4
Lab VI - Miliband 60 Cameron 5 Clegg 2 DK 32
LD VI - Clegg 36 Cameron 21 Miliband 9 DK 34
UKIP VI - Cameron 26 Miliband 5 Clegg 1 DK 68
What this says to me is that Cameron is a definite asset to his party and has the potential to attract some switchers from the other parties but is nowhere near Salmonds popularity levels.
The other thing is the high don't knows. The Tories are planning an Ed is crap campaign. Their problem is a large number of voters agree - they just don't think much more highly of Cameron.
The key groups to my mind are the Labour and UKIP don't knows. Will the Labour don't knows stick with Labour even though they are clearly not that impressed with Miliband? And will the UKIP don't knows be persuadable by the anti-Miliband message?
I'd like to see more forced choice Cameron / Miliband polling of these groups because in a close election they could decide it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10875277/This-Coalition-can-be-compared-with-our-greatest-governments.html
There are claims on Twitter that a 2,000 strong poll conducted by Loughborough University has taken place re: Newark. Can anyone source?
#BritainElects @britainelects 3m
The poll puts UKIP in the lead by one point over the Conservatives. However, we cannot find solid evidence that this is an actual poll.
A portent of things to come ?????
"Thatcher" is often used as a metaphor for the loss of jobs, but she was not the actual cause, and a fair proportion of the blame must also be held by the unions. Mismanagement, chronic underinvestment, and an attitude of "The world will buy our stuff.....because they always have" completed the disaster.
Where Mrs. T and her idiot adviser got it wrong was that the service sector, and a few low employment but high return industries would be all that was needed to make the country rich.
Britain would become a nation of investors, it instead became a nation of debtors.
"The question the Westminster parties now need to answer now is how much they plan to slash Scotland's budget by in the event of a No vote - what are their secret plans to cut Scotland's cash and will they be straight with the people of Scotland before the referendum?
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/277911-opposition-parties-unite-to-call-for-independence-start-up-costs/
Or perhaps the poor weather will reduce the "pomp", and give a more suitable melancholic atmosphere? Those that wish to remember will be there no matter what.
The gap appears to have widened back to where it was at the start of the year...
Lid Dems = 7, 8, 8, 7
Greens = 4, 5, 5, 5
Controversy over the fracking/trespass bill may cause a temporary crossover in these scores. I don't think it would have much impact on the Lib Dems - I think they're fairly inured to bad news at this stage - but something to look out for if the issue does receive media prominence.
Someone has gone to a fair bit of trouble to collate all the poll results to calculate a PB polling average for every month back to 2010, and you respond with your "impressions". You could at least look at some of the data that is out there and see if they match up with your "impressions".
In the first four polls of 2014 the average Labour lead was 6.25%
My brief first look at the actual data appears to contradict your "impression"...
Essentially outwith the election period the voters are still in "free hit mode" but with the caveat that slowly, inexorably the Labour lead is being nibbled at.
I expect this narrative will continue throughout the remainder of the year interspersed with the odd crossover polls from time to time.
The real game will be upon us from the new year.
"How much easier to blame someone else than face up to your own responsibilities"
Indeed Carlotta,
"Meritocracy is a myth"
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/meritocracy-is-a-myth-9483779.html
My impression is based on the fact that the polls have undoubtably bounced back towards Labour since the Euros.
David fails to emphasise that fact in his piece.
This a by-election and the volume of insults has moderated, so would I return to the LDs?
Probably not, and it's nothing to do with University fees or broken promises. They seem to have spent half their four years in government obsessing about a weird form of PR that was neither use nor ornament, and the other half banging on about HoL reform. Both subjects to which I'm supremely indifferent. Now they want to reform the EU by being a cheer leader for it.
I can't vote Tory for tribal reasons even though I know they don't really eat babies, and Labour is led by a weirdo schoolboy. Ukip are a party of strange people with no policies, but the other protest party is a group of flat-earthers.
Yet abstaining is a negation of democracy.
But what was interesting about the crossover-gasm, when the polls were extremely erratic, was that the Tories completely failed to establish any sort of momentum, and had to rely on Labour subsidence simply to get the odd poll showing a lead of a point or two.
Interspersed with those were polls that had the Tories in the 20s.
Looking at the YouGov 2010 Splits, the LDs in every poll this month to date have split in favour of Labour rather than LD. In May this happened only six times in 21 polls. LD retention is at 28.25 for June down from 33.19 in May and 35.80 for April.
LD defection to Greens is an average of 10.5 in June from 8.14 in May and 5.85 in April. Similarly, Labour to Green is at 2.75 in June from 2.0 in May and 1.1 in April.
Labour retention is at 80.75 in June from 81.67 in May and 83.85 in April and 85.42 in January. Labour defection to UKIP has steadied at around 7.
The Cons are still suffering from UKIPitis since the EUROs, and Con retention is at 72.75 for June down from a May average of 76.05. Con defection to UKIP is 18.5 for June up from an average of 16.10 for May.
So yes, Labour has bounced back, not to where it was at the start of the year, but 2 points is I am sure a welcome shift.....
sorry to hear work was giving you a tough time over the last few weeks. I've been through a few of those myself, so I hope it picks up and things work out for you.
The polls will eventually settle as voters turn their attention to a whole variety of the usual Summer distractions, however nibble, nibble .... nibble nibble.
My distinct impression is that the polling has become more favourable to Labour since the Euros.
That is not to say it is great, but there does seem to be a widening of the gap back towards where it was at the start of the year.
It's a very recent development admittedly, so more polls needed.
It's not a massive shift but there does seem to have been an easing of the position.
Seems the leftwing parties have been having a little chat: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27708375
"But one member of the group admits at least that the parties' common ground on the European Union was discussed.
The group was brought together for a discussion because of "mutual concern over Europe", BBC Newsnight has been told. And the programme understands a wider range of issues was discussed."
Edited extra bit:
"The Liberal Democrats would again, it's understood, begin talks first with the party with the largest number of seats, in the event of no party having an overall majority."
Interesting perspective for a party so into PR. Wasn't their line last time that most votes determined who they'd speak to?
I hope they are not considering the joint ticket option that was slipped in along with the five year parliament bill.
The LDs are rather all over the place at present, but are still the party where fruitcake is served but not as the main dish. Come over to the dark side, and let your inner sandals and beard show!
What are these "tribal" reasons?
For the geeks among us :-)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10874403/Smartphones-will-include-Star-Wars-3D-holograms-within-two-years.html
Very sceptical of the claims though.
The Lib Dems are already stretching credulity by their idiotic differentiation strategy whilst at the same time trying to claim credit for all the lovely things the Coalition did. A joint ticket might tempt some, but would also prompt the obvious question: Why did you form a coalition with one party and then run on a joint ticket with another.
If you mean UKIP and the Conservatives, that'll never happen. It'd harm both parties.
Charles, you have to be brought in a Tories = bosses environment to appreciate the tribal nature. Think ... Dennis Skinner.
Dr Fox, Charlie had an appreciation of what was important (not just the whisky bottle) but Nick seizes on ephemera.
An combination of the Badger (sorry, Malcolm), Beaker and a bit of an oddball Kipper would be about right.
They all have faults but that makes them human.
Iirc last time they said "largest party" and were conspicuously vague about quite what that meant.....
Since then the question on FPTP vs AV has been put, so opting for "most seats" would acknowledge the will of the people.....
Even if you're a sandal-wearing, beard-owning, rocket sandwich-eating hater of the baby-eaters, you don't need any sort of pre-election positioning nonsense.
Blues aren't in a position to form a government, even with coalition = no deal
Blues are in a position to form a government, with coalition = make an obnoxious demand or refuse a referendum on the EU
Blues get a majority = no deal
Masterly inactivity is a bit of a piss-taking phrase, but there are times when you don't need to anything.
There seems to be a lack of anti role models for people who favour these silly names for politicians.
Both Danny Alexander and Ed Miliband are called Beaker. I always thought Ed was Wallace.
Perhaps we should get away from childish name calling and instead assess these leaders on their policies.
I cannot understand the Liberals' thinking here.
If I were them, I would look to pull the plug in the autumn and hope that they get a small differentiation bounce.
But they won't. I think the phrase is: "put up or shut up".
I have no idea what the change was, or what it was supposed to do, I only heard about it from a Conservative on the night of the Euro results. Though I am pretty sure that it was not originally meant as a Tory/Ukip thing.
Thanks for looking up the comparable figures.
I know this is only a hypothetical you are discussing but personally that would be my move.
Labour 33.7% (-2.1)
Conservative 31.3% (+2.2)
UKIP 15.1% (-1.2)
Lib Dem 9.5% (no change)
Implied Others 10.4% (+1.1)
Newark Castle will be developed into an intergalactic space port. #newarkbyelection #Manicfesto
Awesome, - what a shame I don't live in Newark...!
Thank you for that frank summary.
Just two points: most of us need to focus on what is required for the future and not so much on the past - that is why great civilisations/empires/tribes get fat and lazy, look inward and eventually fail and disintegrate. However, we do have to be sure that whosoever we choose does not repeat the mistakes of the past but learn for their errors.
Also if there are no bosses there are no employees. Thus there is either total self-employment (e.g a subsistence economy - but even there those with special skills specialised (e.g. flint knapping) or a totalitarian economy where personal freedom tends to be minimised.
Personally, most of western Europe is in a deep sink hole that is growing (much more slowly but still growing) and I do not see a way out for all its people. We are losing the technological race with our cheaper and more efficient Asian neighbours and unless there is a severe turnaround (smaller state, more community self-support and far better education) then only the few will survive and improve their lot this side of 2050. Unfortunately I do not see our political system having the required degrees of freedom to allow that to happen.
Councils warn SNP childcare policy cannot be delivered
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/education/councils-warn-snp-childcare-policy-cannot-be-delivered.24410203
Given that it's Eck's half hour day I thought it would be rude to just lurk and drink my coffee peacefully.
Now they're probably reverting to their 'default' position largely, but that won't be the case for the general election.
In short, when the public start thinking politics, at least for the euro's they didn't think much of labour.
The Euros are a separate case. They seem too remote for the majority to bother with, and many of the people who did vote. did so with less tribalism than they would at a GE.
Much the same can be said for the Newark by election.
The result will not make much difference to anyone except UKIP, and it is only for eleven months anyway.
What it has done though is to throw the polls about, and the distortions will take time to smooth out
I'm not especially in favour - my chances are optimised if the LibDems say the Coalition is wonderful. But as a LibDem I'd reckon some pretty broad Labour-friendly hints were wise.
FPT as it's undoubtedly going to come up in the coming weeks:
Dan Hannan has successfully persuaded the far-right Danish People's Party to switch from the nationalist EFP (where they sit with UKIP) to the Tory EPP. It's said (source: Danish Conservative newspaper Berlingske Tidende) that Cameron is not pleased, because the Tories have previously attacked UKIP over linking with the DFP. Tactically it's a coup for the EPP as it makes it more likely that they'll get full faction status (more money and seats on committees). Strategically it's going to be a bit awkward.
[HYUFD notes that they're trying to get the German AfD as well. They are not as far-right - they're anti-Euro but pro-EU, and basically a small business party. But they are utterly detested by Merkel as they mainly drain votes from the CDU, so it's directly contrary to Cameron's strategy to cuddle up to her.]
Yesterday, I had my monthly call with one of Germany's industrial giants (they gave us two large orders), and was told that most of their prospective European capital projects are on hold and have been so for some time and new business is coming from Africa and Asia where price is very competitive.
Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?
There was a piece on the news last night about different member states wanting different interest rates. Rather obvious, but they never seemed to consider that possibility a decade or so ago (and we had clowns like Huhne here claiming we should join).
I love wild theories.
The most mental aspect is that they're going for more integration, with banking and the beginnings of fiscal union. They're trying to put out a fire using petrol.