politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continu

CarlottaVance said:

Good to see that despite coming out for "Yes" the Herald is continuing to report news critical of the SNP:

Councils warn SNP childcare policy cannot be delivered

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/education/councils-warn-snp-childcare-policy-cannot-be-delivered.24410203

You're confounding the daily and Sunday editions. The daily edition is just as pro-Union as it ever was, with some very oddly contorted writing in the "reportage", though the opinion and comment pages are rather more balanced.

Mr. Away, that will be one of the most interesting things to watch out for. That, and whether the exit poll will be as accurate as last time.

Bah. Sophie Raworth and Andrew Neil should be first in the queue to replace Dimbleby, not Huw Edwards.

NickPalmer said:

Perhaps CD13 should be voting Green? They're annoying for us Labour people, but coherent and distinctive - certainly their programme is more developed than UKIP.

I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.

Why do I have an image of you on Political Weakest Link shouting 'bank!' repeatedly at 10pm every night?! ;-)

NickPalmer said:

Perhaps CD13 should be voting Green? They're annoying for us Labour people, but coherent and distinctive - certainly their programme is more developed than UKIP.

I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.

I would not go so far as to describe Green policies as 'coherent'

NickPalmer said:

Perhaps CD13 should be voting Green? They're annoying for us Labour people, but coherent and distinctive - certainly their programme is more developed than UKIP.

I think whatever today's result is, the winning party will get a bounce, but I doubt if it will last very long as we head into the wastes of summer. It's hard to see any major events left that will *dramatically* shift voting intention except the Scottish referendum (election campaigns themselves don't, usually) and the question of to what extent UKIP sinks back.

Whilst there may not be many planned political events to change voting intention (some of course come totally out of the blue) what does change in the year to a general election is that people start to switch on and take politics more seriously . They start to ask do they really want to change the government (as opposed to having a moan and a whinge about it) . Whlst this may not switch many voters between Labour and Conservative it could switch voters from UKIP to Conservative

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment?
Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?

Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.

They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)

Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-).
However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.

Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there.
Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....

Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)

A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.

It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.

There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...

There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?

* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.

OblitusSumMe said:

The year-on-year changes for May are interesting.

Labour 33.7% (-2.1)
Conservative 31.3% (+2.2)
UKIP 15.1% (-1.2)
Lib Dem 9.5% (no change)
Implied Others 10.4% (+1.1)

That is interesting, because it reminds us that the big rise in UKIP's support actually happened over a year ago and has since been fairly steady, rather than being a rapid rise in the last few weeks, which is the impression many people have. Although one could spin that as 'UKIP loses momentum', I think a better assessment would be that it is actually quite encouraging for UKIP, as it implies a reasonable degree of durability in their support.

Will it endure as the GE approaches, and if not, will the drift back to the main parties be symmetrical? It is probably no exaggeration to say that those are the two big questions, the answers to which will decide the 2015 result.

antifrank1 said:

It appears that Richard Nabavi has kidnapped Peter Oborne and dictated his latest column:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10875277/This-Coalition-can-be-compared-with-our-greatest-governments.html

Seems a well-balanced assessment.

@AveryLP

Give me the benefit of your wisdom, who in economic terms gains the most from immigration? (other than the immigrants themselves)

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment?
Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?

Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.

They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)

Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-).
However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.

Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there.
Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....

Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)

FPTP makes it a lottery, Farage reckons he might have the balance of power with two dozen MPs. It's more likely he'll have zero or maybe a couple if he's lucky (and that even if Helmer wins today). The Greens had one seat in this parliament and they didn't figure in coalition building.
If the Lib Dems get 30 seats and parliament is hung they may be able to influence things if they want to. It's most likely that the arithmetic will make only one coalition possible and even if that's not the case then personalities and politics may rule that out (I'm thinking Labour / LD).
Come May 2015 how will Kipper voters react to getting zero or a pitiful number of MPs for all their hard work and high hopes? If the LDs go into opposition under a new leader they could start picking up protest votes again and UKIP could fade away.

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Morning all

Have to say I'm more interested in events at Epsom rather than Newark. The Oaks looks very open - MARVELLOUS looked good at The Curragh and any rain will help while TAGHROODA won a weak Listed race at Newmarket but did it well.

I've been a supporter of KINGSTON HILL for the Derby since the Guineas and the form of the race looks solid. He shouldn't beat AUSTRALIA but he looked value to me at 16/1 when I got on e/w.

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment?
Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?

Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.

They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)

Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-).
However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.

Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there.
Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....

Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)

FPTP makes it a lottery, Farage reckons he might have the balance of power with two dozen MPs. It's more likely he'll have zero or maybe a couple if he's lucky (and that even if Helmer wins today). The Greens had one seat in this parliament and they didn't figure in coalition building.
If the Lib Dems get 30 seats and parliament is hung they may be able to influence things if they want to. It's most likely that the arithmetic will make only one coalition possible and even if that's not the case then personalities and politics may rule that out (I'm thinking Labour / LD).
Come May 2015 how will Kipper voters react to getting zero or a pitiful number of MPs for all their hard work and high hopes? If the LDs go into opposition under a new leader they could start picking up protest votes again and UKIP could fade away.

All fair points.
I think 30 is a stretch for the Lib Dems though, I'm going in at under 20

Richard_Nabavi said:

That is interesting, because it reminds us that the big rise in UKIP's support actually happened over a year ago and has since been fairly steady, rather than being a rapid rise in the last few weeks, which is the impression many people have.

Yes, the big rise in UKIP support occurred after the Vetogasm wore off, the Omnishambles budget rumbled on and a series of by-elections got them noticed by the mainstream media.

The poll shares in May last year, with changes from the peak of the Vetogasm* in January 2012, were:

Labour 35.8% (-1.8)
Conservative 29.1% (-9.4)
UKIP 16.3% (+12.3)
Lib Dems 9.5% (-2.0)
Implied Others 9.3% (+0.9)

* This comparison is in some ways a bit unfair on the Tories. If we take the differences compared to November 2012, Labour's peak during this Parliament, then the changes over the following six months were:

Labour -6.4
Conservative -3.1
UKIP +9.1
Lib Dems -0.4
Implied Others +0.8

OT

Test 12 sees to be a bit of suck it and see. No faith in Downton at all. Nor in Cook.

AveryLP said:

GIN1138 said:

Happy Newark Day.

Is this the day when the Balloon burst's on UKIP?

Tomorrow's headlines:

Revolting Kippers Quelled

Yeah!! And all done before 10:30 - Suck on that sky news paper report!!!

dugarbandier said:

Smarmeron said:

@AveryLP

"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."

You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?

This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...

not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.

Thus, and in conclusion:

All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)

My bicycle comes from the constituency of Ettington.

AveryLP said:

GIN1138 said:

Happy Newark Day.

Is this the day when the Balloon burst's on UKIP?

Tomorrow's headlines:

Revolting Kippers Quelled

One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning. To have a sitting Prime Minister visit four times, to send (supposedly) 1,000 polling day activists (a better example of the law of diminishing returns would be hard to find) for a seat with a 16,000 majority smacks of something akin to panic.

Perhaps the 25% Ashcroft poll rating has concentrated minds at CCHQ.

OblitusSumMe said:

A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.

It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.

There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...

There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?

* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.

There are more than 3 former airfields. There are former airfields with runways still existing at at Ossington, Orston, Wigsley and Plungar as well as the now destroyed airfield at Balderton. Just outside the constituency there is also the airfield at Langar.

These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.

Eden Hall is a Health farm.

I've just had a thought about encouraging young people to vote.

How about including registration and actual voting in the PPE lessons at school?

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

LogicalSong said:

dyedwoolie said:

Is Newark Cleggs continuity SDP moment?
Can they come 7th behind the Bus Pass Elvis dude?

Labour got 1.7% and 2% in by-elections in the 90s and I believe they persevered.

They were somewhat stronger nationally at the time iirc, 60% in the polls? ;-)

Well 40% or 50% (and that in 1997) according to http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/e97/polls.htm . I've told you a million times not to exaggerate ;-).
However, that really makes my point. It will take a long time for a major party to die or to emerge.

Point taken, I'm not suggesting they will die overnight, but that sort of result might convince another 2% or so of their remaining support that it's really not worth it anymore, and the tailspin takes hold from there.
Whilst they have 50 plus MPs then they are a national force. Come May 2015, change one letter.....

Edit - or, if you prefer, swap the second letters around :-)

FPTP makes it a lottery, Farage reckons he might have the balance of power with two dozen MPs. It's more likely he'll have zero or maybe a couple if he's lucky (and that even if Helmer wins today). The Greens had one seat in this parliament and they didn't figure in coalition building.
If the Lib Dems get 30 seats and parliament is hung they may be able to influence things if they want to. It's most likely that the arithmetic will make only one coalition possible and even if that's not the case then personalities and politics may rule that out (I'm thinking Labour / LD).
Come May 2015 how will Kipper voters react to getting zero or a pitiful number of MPs for all their hard work and high hopes? If the LDs go into opposition under a new leader they could start picking up protest votes again and UKIP could fade away.

All fair points.
I think 30 is a stretch for the Lib Dems though, I'm going in at under 20

As I said it's a bit of a lottery, even at 20 they can swing 40 by joining or opposing a coalition.
This election is different in that the LDs don't HAVE to join a coalition with the Tories (or Labour) as that did have to in 2010 - in order to save the country from an economic meltdown. They would be better off as a party if either the figures didn't stack up or if the party with most seats chose not to negotiate. Under those circumstances I'd expect UKIP to fade and the LDs to re-establish.

Smarmeron said:

@AveryLP

Give me the benefit of your wisdom, who in economic terms gains the most from immigration? (other than the immigrants themselves)

I incline on this issue towards the line taken by BoJo and RobertS (but no more AJP Taylor please).

I would however be very Cameroon and IDSite on interventionary controls and safeguards to smooth the transition to unfettered flows of labour.

It is this difficult middle bit that is politically complex but socially and economically vital.

Blue_rog said:

I've just had a thought about encouraging young people to vote.

How about including registration and actual voting in the PPE lessons at school?

I assume you're trolling. But I wouldn't put it past Gove!!!! Newsnight Review Legend!!!!!

I shall attempt to calm down now.

rcs1000 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station,

I mis-read that as "the gay-fired power station"...

There's UKIP's new energy policy, right there.

Richard_Nabavi said:

corporeal said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

corporeal said:

Rather odd he skipped over any mention of the inter-war period I thought.

In what way?

Most recent example of peace-time coalition?

OK, I see what you're saying. Well he does refer to that coalition, but doesn't seem terribly impressed by it.

Does he? I didn't see a mention?

AveryLP said:

Can you imagine Smarmy travelling with a Louis Vuitton trunk?

They're all fake nowadays anyway, aren't they? Certainly common enought to look trashy...

Richard_Tyndall said:

OblitusSumMe said:

A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.

It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.

There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...

There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?

* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.

There are more than 3 former airfields. There are former airfields with runways still existing at at Ossington, Orston, Wigsley and Plungar as well as the now destroyed airfield at Balderton. Just outside the constituency there is also the airfield at Langar.

These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.

Eden Hall is a Health farm.

Thanks Richard.

I can see the old airfields at Ossington, Wigsley and Langar, but the ones at Orston and Plungar don't seem to be visible with google maps.

Benefits of having loads of helpers in a byelection

1. Train and give experience for the GE
2. Enthuse activists to campaign
3. Message that hard work delivers
4. Generate camardarie
5. Show the other parties that you can put people on the ground

TheWatcher said:

dugarbandier said:

Smarmeron said:

@AveryLP

"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."

You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?

This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...

not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.

Thus, and in conclusion:

All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)

Avery drives an Allegro.

The truth is out.

I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.

And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.

But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.

That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.

Verulamius said:

Benefits of having loads of helpers in a byelection

1. Train and give experience for the GE
2. Enthuse activists to campaign
3. Message that hard work delivers
4. Generate camardarie
5. Show the other parties that you can put people on the ground

To be fair, most of the Conservative activists seem to be MPs or prospective MPs who basically are being pressganged into doing their bit. My point is that unless you have something useful for 1,000 activists to do they finish up being more problem than they are worth.

On Polling Day, you can do your early morning leaflet, telling and knock up through the day. There's no point canvassing at that stage and presumably the postal supporters have been identified and their votes are already "in the mail bag".

Indeed, doing too much calling too often can irritate voters who will come out for you but want to have their dinner and watch Eastenders first.

200 activists (if experienced and well used) can be more useful than 1,000 and two dozen six weeks before Polling can be infinitely better than 1,000 on Polling Day. All this is the Conservative Party trying to show off its virility and trying to intimidate UKIP and other parties.

It's a bit sad really...

AveryLP said:

TheWatcher said:

dugarbandier said:

Smarmeron said:

@AveryLP

"My guess is that your voting intention is at the Skoda stage."

You mean he appreciates value for money, quality, and sound engineering over ill conceived snobbery?

This is all very confusing considering skodas are quite german really, who knows who owns jaguar anymore, and minis are made by BMW...

not to mention all those Japanese cars built in the UK.

Thus, and in conclusion:

All politicians are the same, you'd better vote Lada (or bicycle- but all bicycles are built in Taiwan, more or less, so there'S another problem)

Avery drives an Allegro.

The truth is out.

I have both owned and driven an Allegro. It was the second car I ever owned and the first I bought with my own resources.

And almost certainly the worst car I have owned.

But it has a special place in my heart. I was driving it on the A40 between Greenford and Northolt (then under much development causing tailbacks) when news came through on the radio that Margaret Thatcher had won the no-confidence vote in the HoC against Callaghan.

That is why I can affirm that at least the horn and emergency warning lights worked in the car even if nothing else did.

The square wheel version?

@Speedy

You want politicians to tell the truth!
It would lead to the downfall of the country.
You should be marched to the Tower then hung drawn and quartered for such sedition.

rcs1000 said:

Kipper Convert Alert!

A friend of mine has recently converted to Kipper-dom. He is a member of the metropolitan elite, and someone who - as recently as 2010 - was very anti-UKIP.

However, it's not all good news for the Kippers. He is in charge of the UK off-shoring business for a large consultancy. He thinks there'll be a big pick-up in off-shoring of call centres and support operations in the event of Brexit: a big opportunity for his company to take jobs out of the UK and ship them off to Poland.

This is the weird thing about the British anti-EU people: They're (officially at least) in favour of free trade, except for labour. In most countries the populist right want to stop both immigrants coming in and jobs going out, but UKIP seem to be perfectly happy for employers to sack low-skilled British people and give their jobs to Poles, as long as the Poles who take their jobs do them in Poland.

JBriskin said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just had a thought about encouraging young people to vote.

How about including registration and actual voting in the PPE lessons at school?

I assume you're trolling. But I wouldn't put it past Gove!!!! Newsnight Review Legend!!!!!

I shall attempt to calm down now.

I don't see why that is trolling! Including the mechanics of how democracy works in the UK seems a logical part of PPE. Extending this to voter registration when students pass 18 is not a huge leap and having a polling station in school for registered voters seems logical as well.

MarkHopkins said:

antifrank said:

My thoughts on outcomes today.

1) Conservatives. Anything other than a win would be awful for them. Really awful. A narrow win should cause serious concern in the blue ranks (but probably wouldn't, because they seem in a fey mood at present).

2) UKIP. They've played the expectations game awfully. Anything above 20% would objectively be a great result, given where they started, but that's not how the media would see it. A win would be incredible and the Kippers would justifiably be unbearable if that happened.

3) Labour. At the beginning of the campaign, our host was backing them to win. Given the starting point, that wasn't stupid. It looks as if Labour may go backwards. This should cause soul-searching as one more set of constituencies get added to the list of constituencies that Labour isn't interested in winning any more, but it almost certainly won't, because too many Labour supporters seem anaesthetised to the risks.

4) Lib Dems. If they hold their deposit, they'll be very happy. That's how desperate they've become.

So, the Conservative will be unhappy with their smaller win;
UKIP will be unhappy with their likely second place;
Labour will be unhappy as they didn't try (no matter the result);
and the LibDems will be unhappy unless they manage to keep their deposit.

Aren't you a ray of sunshine :-)

I'm a glass half empty man. Even Bus Pass Elvis is unlikely to be able to draw much consolation from the result tonight.

@LadPolitics: Newark latest betting news & Ladbrokes prediction http://t.co/mbYQFKdDag

CD13 said:

Thanks for the advice about voting.

Charles, you have to be brought in a Tories = bosses environment to appreciate the tribal nature. Think ... Dennis Skinner.

Dr Fox, Charlie had an appreciation of what was important (not just the whisky bottle) but Nick seizes on ephemera.

An combination of the Badger (sorry, Malcolm), Beaker and a bit of an oddball Kipper would be about right.

They all have faults but that makes them human.

But you're an intelligent guy, so surely you can think through that?

Richard_Tyndall said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OblitusSumMe said:

A couple of things about the constituency of Newark - hereafter to be known as Eden* - which you may not have known.

It is home to the Staythorpe gas-fired power station, the second largest CCGT power station in the country, the Cottam coal power station and the Cottam Development Centre, a small gas-fired plant. The combined generating capacity of the three power stations is a smidgen over 4.1 GW, just over 5% of the UK's total generating capacity.

There are three former/current airfields in the constituency: Syerston to the south-west, Gamston to the north-west and at Newark itself, with another two just outside the constituency at Witham St Hughs and Newton. Does any constituency have more airfields than this? Perhaps this makes Newark Castle a good choice for Britain's first intergalactic space port...

There are a few controversial wind turbine applications in process, including one on CofE land at Elston - might these swing votes one way or t'other?

* After Eden Hall, the only country house I can find in the constituency, following the naming convention of the constituency of our Great Chancellor, which is named after Tatton Hall.

There are more than 3 former airfields. There are former airfields with runways still existing at at Ossington, Orston, Wigsley and Plungar as well as the now destroyed airfield at Balderton. Just outside the constituency there is also the airfield at Langar.

These were used by the Polish parachute Brigade who were based at Newark in WW2 and took off from these airfields for Arnhem.

Eden Hall is a Health farm.

Thanks Richard.

I can see the old airfields at Ossington, Wigsley and Langar, but the ones at Orston and Plungar don't seem to be visible with google maps.

The one at Orston is near Bottesford. You might find it by putting in Bottesford Airfield into the search criteria. It was used by Schlumberger for many decades as a training school and I believe it still has a functioning rig on it.

This might help for Plungar

http://www.ukairfields.org.uk/uploads/7/0/8/5/7085670/aviation_in_notts.pdf

Thanks again Richard - I think those last two are just outside the constituency boundary.

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank1 said:

It appears that Richard Nabavi has kidnapped Peter Oborne and dictated his latest column:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10875277/This-Coalition-can-be-compared-with-our-greatest-governments.html

Seems a well-balanced assessment.

antifrank1's comment? ;-)

anotherDave said:

Scott_P said:

@LadPolitics: Newark latest betting news & Ladbrokes prediction http://t.co/mbYQFKdDag

55% turnout seems a bit optimistic.

For comparison, Eastleigh, where UKIP previously came closest to winning a by-election, had a turnout of 52.8%, which I think is the highest in this Parliament.

@stodge

'One can almost detect the febrile desperation among some of the Tories on here this morning.'

Along with the Lib Dem bitterness?

@pppolitics: Tories now 1/20 to win today's by-election in #Newark http://t.co/uGagnOW6o0

corporeal said:

Speedy said:

Can someone make them stop posting non-credible info?
(I guess the voters will)

Roger Helmer ‏@RogerHelmerMEP 24m
The latest poll for the Newark by-election puts UKIP ahead http://www.bloggers4ukip.org.uk/2014/06/independent-poll-puts-ukip-in-lead-in.html …

How cynical do we feel like being about this reporting of a mysterious poll?

The worst thing in the world will be if that poll is accurate.

Means any numpty can posting polls in the lead up to the elections next year, and say "Remember that Newark poll that turned out to be right"

Is the road to anarchy.

anotherDave said:

Scott_P said:

@LadPolitics: Newark latest betting news & Ladbrokes prediction http://t.co/mbYQFKdDag

55% turnout seems a bit optimistic.

For comparison, Eastleigh, where UKIP previously came closest to winning a by-election, had a turnout of 52.8%. The highest in this Parliament was the 55.7% in Mid Ulster, and Bradford West was the only other to reach 50%.

Completely off topic my daughter is signing up for the open day at Durham on 5th July 2014. It crosses my mind that this puts me in roughly the right area of country for the proposed PB get together which I think was for that night?

Can anyone confirm that this is still going ahead and, if so, where and when? I fear accommodation in the area may be somewhat limited as a result of those obsessed with the world before the invention of motor engine and would like to make some arrangements soon if possible.

I would also be interested to learn who is likely to make it.

Turnout out could be higher than normal because of the Tories GOTV operation.

1,000 activists in the seat since 4:45am today.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Turnout out could be higher than normal because of the Tories GOTV operation.

1,000 activists in the seat since 4:45am today.

All those activists 'encouraging' people to vote? Sounds a bit Tower Hamlets doesn't it...?

Smarmeron said:

@AveryLP

A very political answer Avery, A vague ramble that admits nothing, but sounds good to your fellow ramblers.

I am a straight talking guy, smarmy, who speaks his mind and tells things as I see them.