The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com
The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com
If the polls have got this right then overnight we could see what is a relatively rare event in US politics – when a sitting President fails to get re-elected after a first term. It might not be that we get enough results to come to that conclusion for a day or so but you can sure that the legion of US political commentators will be examining every small move when hard voting figures becomes available and contrasting that which happened fours years ago when Trump won his shock victory.
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US election day is just minutes away...0
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Dixville Notch live stream:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=400S_-6H9JA0 -
Yes0
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Sounding more and more like Berlusconi ...0
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Good morning all. The scene is set for the Democrats to sweep to power. The story will be the magnitude of the victory.
Biden 330 + EC
and the Senate will flip at least 5 to 6 seats.
It will be a crushing victory that will set America on a new path.0 -
A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.
But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?
Any thoughts very welcome.
x0 -
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One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,0
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It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.IanB2 said:One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
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Message sent0
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It’s a landslide!Scott_xP said:1 -
FPT:
Final prediction: Biden 279, Trump 259.1 -
4 GOP Governor votes0
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A tight call.... I reckon Trump 229 Biden 309.Andy_JS said:FPT:
Final prediction: Biden 279, Trump 259.0 -
https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323374653583360006
According to this African American seniors are already at 124% of 2016 in Georgia. Trump has certainly riled up the voters like no President in my lifetime. Not just his own voters but all of them. One forecast we can make with confidence is that total votes cast is going to be a record. What effect this will have on the models is difficult to predict but it is unlikely that they have correctly modelled such turnout.1 -
Comeback in Millsfield for Trump0
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And that was a seriously close one that Nixon lost.Andy_JS said:1 -
Probably midnight to 2am for the early results from the east coast and especially Florida, from which all sorts of extrapolations and predictions will be made. This is discussed in the last section of the latest 538 podcast/video, from the 42-minute mark. I really would not bother with the first 40 minutes.Mysticrose said:A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.
But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?
Any thoughts very welcome.
x
https://youtu.be/wH-Phtmw348?t=2516s0 -
What's your shakiest bet on this election?
I reckon mine is Bollier in Kansas. That looks like a loss to me. I'm not too confident on Texas for the Dems either, although I have a lot on Florida which I'm confident about.0 -
DecrepiterJohnL thank you so much - listening to it now. Great tip about the edit
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My final guess is Biden 325-213. Trump holds Texas, Florida, Ohio but loses Georgia, Penn, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.1
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Listening to that I reckon it'll be fairly safe to get up at 1 am.
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Well here we are, today's the day.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).0 -
I think Florida will finish off Trump very early on in the night.
That's what virtually all the evidence tells me.0 -
My assumption is that Florida will be TCTC for a long time, possibly days, but Trump edges it. I agree that if Biden is clearly ahead there it’s all over.Mysticrose said:I think Florida will finish off Trump very early on in the night.
That's what virtually all the evidence tells me.0 -
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.Sandpit said:Well here we are, today's the day.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
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Millsfield election result is 16 - 5, so a small move from Trump to Biden.
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Do we have the Millsfield result?0
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It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:rcs1000 said:
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.Sandpit said:Well here we are, today's the day.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
pb.com
538 live blog
CNN television coverage
New York Times
Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)
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It'll be interesting to see how the suburbs of Miami and Orlando vote, and how Seniors vote. We'll know less from the Hispanic vote, because it's very different to the rest of the US.DavidL said:
My assumption is that Florida will be TCTC for a long time, possibly days, but Trump edges it. I agree that if Biden is clearly ahead there it’s all over.Mysticrose said:I think Florida will finish off Trump very early on in the night.
That's what virtually all the evidence tells me.1 -
Good piece on NBC entitled 'On election eve, this country is just unbelievably stressed out.'
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/election-eve-country-just-unbelievably-stressed-out-n1245841
It's the most stressy election I've witnessed in my lifetime anywhere in the world.
That's partly Covid, of course, and very largely Donald Trump's doing.0 -
I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.Mysticrose said:
It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:rcs1000 said:
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.Sandpit said:Well here we are, today's the day.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
pb.com
538 live blog
CNN television coverage
New York Times
Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)2 -
Right. I'm off to bed.
It's funny how I may know the result (if Florida isn't close) by 5pm.1 -
Can you not stream Fox on your laptop or device?DavidL said:
I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.Mysticrose said:
It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:rcs1000 said:
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.Sandpit said:Well here we are, today's the day.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
pb.com
538 live blog
CNN television coverage
New York Times
Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)
Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.0 -
No you need a subscription. Unless anyone knows differently?Mysticrose said:
Can you not stream Fox on your laptop or device?DavidL said:
I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.Mysticrose said:
It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:rcs1000 said:
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.Sandpit said:Well here we are, today's the day.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
pb.com
538 live blog
CNN television coverage
New York Times
Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)
Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.0 -
The BBC has just said Florida will report around 4am and Georgia at 4.30.Mysticrose said:A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.
But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?
Any thoughts very welcome.
x
So depends how long you need to make coffee and the run up to get into the drama. May be 3am?0 -
I'm not sure putting Lady Gaga on stage was a smart move. If there was someone who might motivate people to vote for Trump, it's her.1
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It’s interestingMysticrose said:
It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.IanB2 said:One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden0 -
I'm not sure I really trust any of the UK media with US elections, Charles. They always seem so far behind and missing key points?Charles said:
The BBC has just said Florida will report around 4am and Georgia at 4.30.Mysticrose said:A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.
But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?
Any thoughts very welcome.
x
So depends how long you need to make coffee and the run up to get into the drama. May be 3am?
Florida counts very quickly so 538 reckon we will start to get results as soon as their polls close which is 7pm or midnight GMT. If the result is clearcut then we may start to know by 1am. Just saying that's the 538 opinion on their latest podcast (see below).
However, judging by all the previous US elections I've stayed up for I agree with you. There's always a long, slow, drag in the early hours and of course never quite the same rush of results as we get here with 650 constituencies reporting.
I suspect you're right about 3 am but, dammit, I think this time I want to be up to catch the first hints.0 -
FPT
You must understand, Cummings believes he is brilliant and everyone else is thick.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Cummings is also too keen on central control, when all his reading should tell him this does not work and we need more localisation with network effects. The idea that all data should flow to a central decision maker was tested by Gordon Brown's premiership and failed then. Indeed the whole point of capitalism is not to answer the Soviet question of who organises the bread supply to London. Even at education, what was billed as autonomy for schools ended up, as the joke had it, with the largest education authority in the country being Michael Gove's desk, complete with rows about the minutiae of the history syllabus. Now he wants to bypass the whole of Whitehall and take all decisions himself from a "war room" in the Cabinet Office.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wouldn't say his solutions are necessarily 100% misguided, but his way of doing business is turn everything into some sort of huge ideological battle against anybody who raises objections and in which he then turns all his attention to fighting this latest war, not actually improving things.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is my problem with Dominic Cummings. He does identify real problems with government, including institutional innumeracy; it is just his solutions are misguided, self-defeating and in places fascistic.FrancisUrquhart said:What we need is a judge led public inquiry into innumeracy.....
ETA not to mention cartoonists' uncertainty as to whether he wears glasses.
Therefore, only he can take decisions and get them right.
The tiny flaw in this reasoning is he’s not actually that bright and he has neither the patience nor the intelligence to understand complex problems. Therefore all his solutions are simplistic and unworkable, often having the opposite effect of what he intended.
Meanwhile, he refuses to listen to those people who are actually bright and knowledgeable and disagree with him, because he genuinely thinks he’s brilliant and they’re stupid (see point one) but being unable to actually refute what they say, because he’s wrong, he comes out with a lot of mindless abuse of them instead.
It makes him at one and the same time an outstanding campaigner (because he reduces his ideas to easy if empty slogans) and a bloody hopeless manager/administrator.5 -
Mon close - 99.6m early votes recorded.
However it's believed there are several hundred thousand not yet reported in New York and possibly also another large number in New Jersey.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html0 -
Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.0
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My guess is that Biden will sweep the swing stares, including Texas, but come up short in Ohio and Iowa.0
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Lock him up! Lock him up! Lock him up!0
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Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.0
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Finally trialling a citywide testing program (Liverpool).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54786130
But what apparently they have not done is put in place measures to ensure isolation of infected individuals. The one without the other is only ever going to be partially effective.1 -
Given Trump's bizarre, erratic and bellicose behaviour and the fact that the US is in the middle of a horrendous pandemic, Biden has been exactly what was required.Gaussian said:Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he?
A steady eddie. No major dramas. Previous experience. Safe.
That was exactly what was required. It also meant that Trump had virtually no ammunition. A charismatic opponent would have been burnt back by Trump but he hasn't been able to get any real hold on Biden. 'Sleepy Joe' just faded away and the best they could come up with was some dodgy story about his son.
I'm not saying I'm a huge Biden fan, just that he has surprisingly proved to be the right man for the time. In my opinion
All he needs to do now is stay alive.
p.s. And Biden is why the Democrats will take Florida ...2 -
Good morning, everyone.
Be interesting to see how strong the shy Trump voter effect is.0 -
Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.Charles said:
It’s interestingMysticrose said:
It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.IanB2 said:One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden1 -
And the Shy Biden vote.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Be interesting to see how strong the shy Trump voter effect is.
A much higher turnout throws uncertainty into an election night. Who are these extra people?
On the whole high turnout is good for the Dems though.0 -
I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.DavidL said:
Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.Charles said:
It’s interestingMysticrose said:
It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.IanB2 said:One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.
p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.0 -
365 are now 8/13 biden. What are they seeing that I can't? Maybe continued money for trump irrespective of price.0
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Dr. Foxy, I agree on turnout. I somewhat regret not backing high turnout a little while ago when I was considering that, but there we are.0
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For me, it doesn't really matter how long I sleep providing it's a multiple of 4 hours.Mysticrose said:
I'm not sure I really trust any of the UK media with US elections, Charles. They always seem so far behind and missing key points?Charles said:
The BBC has just said Florida will report around 4am and Georgia at 4.30.Mysticrose said:A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.
But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?
Any thoughts very welcome.
x
So depends how long you need to make coffee and the run up to get into the drama. May be 3am?
Florida counts very quickly so 538 reckon we will start to get results as soon as their polls close which is 7pm or midnight GMT. If the result is clearcut then we may start to know by 1am. Just saying that's the 538 opinion on their latest podcast (see below).
However, judging by all the previous US elections I've stayed up for I agree with you. There's always a long, slow, drag in the early hours and of course never quite the same rush of results as we get here with 650 constituencies reporting.
I suspect you're right about 3 am but, dammit, I think this time I want to be up to catch the first hints.
So perhaps you should go to bed at 10.30, get up at 2.30 and make coffee...1 -
On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
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Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.Charles said:
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?Gaussian said:Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
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Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.nichomar said:Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.
Truly we are blessed in this time, the end of times
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Rallies are for the already convinced, but Trump certainly knows how to stage a rally. Triumph of the Will level theatrics.nico679 said:
I doubt many would have watched or care. Too much is made of these rallies, does it move a single voter either way .tlg86 said:I'm not sure putting Lady Gaga on stage was a smart move. If there was someone who might motivate people to vote for Trump, it's her.
Corbyn used to get big crowds too.0 -
I saw a short clip of her landing (in North Carolina?) the other day.Mysticrose said:
I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.DavidL said:
Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.Charles said:
It’s interestingMysticrose said:
It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.IanB2 said:One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.
p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
She completely fluffed it. The reporter fed her so many patsies and she just gave flat replies that utterly missed the chances. I get that she's probably knackered, but she came across as a really crap politician.0 -
Showing your true colours Charles. That's an appalling, derogatory, term to use.Charles said:
Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.nichomar said:Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.
Time for me to bid the site adieu until tonight. Comments like that are more suited to Guido Fawkes than political betting. They demean the site.
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I thought she was very good on the virus.Charles said:
I saw a short clip of her landing (in North Carolina?) the other day.Mysticrose said:
I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.DavidL said:
Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.Charles said:
It’s interestingMysticrose said:
It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.IanB2 said:One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.
p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
She completely fluffed it. The reporter fed her so many patsies and she just gave flat replies that utterly missed the chances. I get that she's probably knackered, but she came across as a really crap politician.
But, then, I don't think you and I are going to see eye to eye judging by your harpy remark.
G'day everyone.0 -
He likes the tax cuts for the rich. Not so keen on the culture war stuff.Jonathan said:
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.Charles said:
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?Gaussian said:Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
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Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?1 -
She has real limitations as a politician but I think that she could well be a competent and effective President.Mysticrose said:
I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.DavidL said:
Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.Charles said:
It’s interestingMysticrose said:
It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.IanB2 said:One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.
p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
Biden, well, hopefully he is not seriously tested and a way forward on the virus is clear by the time he takes the oath. He is going to be incredibly dependent upon the quality of the team round about him. Bloomberg may be a good pick for Secretary for the Treasury but he is going to have a serious job on his hands and he is no spring chicken either.0 -
Fingers crossed, but if he does somehow lose I think it's because that campaign did in fact reconfirm the Sleepy Joe thing.Mysticrose said:
Given Trump's bizarre, erratic and bellicose behaviour and the fact that the US is in the middle of a horrendous pandemic, Biden has been exactly what was required.Gaussian said:Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he?
A steady eddie. No major dramas. Previous experience. Safe.
That was exactly what was required. It also meant that Trump had virtually no ammunition. A charismatic opponent would have been burnt back by Trump but he hasn't been able to get any real hold on Biden. 'Sleepy Joe' just faded away and the best they could come up with was some dodgy story about his son.
I'm not saying I'm a huge Biden fan, just that he has surprisingly proved to be the right man for the time. In my opinion
All he needs to do now is stay alive.
p.s. And Biden is why the Democrats will take Florida ...0 -
North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?0 -
It's not clear that Trump's strategy has done any better with North Korea.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?0 -
Trump with the rallies reminds me somewhat of Fidel Castro.0
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Rage, which is a fun read, suggests he came within about 12 hours of things going catastrophically worse.rcs1000 said:
It's not clear that Trump's strategy has done any better with North Korea.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?0 -
I’m pretty sure the Middle East was not at peace before 2008.ydoethur said:
North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?2 -
The Trump administration has had a better middle east than most. Domestically they've been disastrous0
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I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.Jonathan said:
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.Charles said:
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?Gaussian said:Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)1 -
yeah, but Obama was pretty shit. He egged on the rise of autocratic China, did the occasional mass murder via drone and still told himself he was worth the Nobel Peace prize.ydoethur said:
North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?0 -
After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.0 -
Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.Charles said:
I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.Jonathan said:
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.Charles said:
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?Gaussian said:Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)0 -
Let's gloss over another Brexiteer desperately trying to blame anyone, anything, for Brexit except the people that wanted it, advocated and voted for it, and cut straight to the fact that if Biden wins he was right...MarqueeMark said:a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit.
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Pithier and much, much shorter.rcs1000 said:Trump with the rallies reminds me somewhat of Fidel Castro.
What I find fascinating about him is that his speeches are so completely unstructured and the way he feeds off the crowd. He seems to riff a number of ideas or thoughts and waits to see which ones grab the crowd's attention and then doubles down on them. Its speech making for the soundbite age. Its extraordinary.0 -
I'm fairly sure it didn't have the capacity to send them intercontinentally...ydoethur said:
North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?0 -
Yes.MarqueeMark said:After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.1 -
538 with a polling error of 3% favouring Trump:
And the same with a 3% error favouring Biden:
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The Middle East is a rare plus in the column, but one of note.Pulpstar said:The Trump administration has had a better middle east than most. Domestically they've been disastrous
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You think Obama had no impact on Brexit? What a cock-eyed version of history you have.Scott_xP said:
Let's gloss over another Brexiteer desperately trying to blame anyone, anything, for Brexit except the people that wanted it, advocated and voted for it, and cut straight to the fact that if Biden wins he was right...MarqueeMark said:a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit.
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Leaving aside the fact that’s not what you said, that’s also not relevant. Once you have nukes, they can be delivered somehow. By cargo plane under false papers, or by a ship and offloaded to be planted somewhere. Remember, America didn’t have ICBMs for over a decade after developing nuclear weapons.MarqueeMark said:
I'm fairly sure it didn't have the capacity to send them intercontinentally...ydoethur said:
North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
Admittedly, long range missiles are preferable, but I would point out they have continued developing quite happily under Trump as well.0 -
Well I think not having a Putin fan as the president will help take on Putin. North Korea realistically cannot do anything without destroying themselves and China, well thats a world issue not just US.MarqueeMark said:After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.
Domestically I see a Biden/Harris doing a lot more for its citizens than a Trump/Pence term.0 -
Give Trump Wisconsin on his 3% underpolling scenario, and you have a Trump EC win by 2.....Foxy said:538 with a polling error of 3% favouring Trump:
And the same with a 3% error favouring Biden:0 -
Be gentle, he's trapped in 2016 and will never move onMarqueeMark said:
You think Obama had no impact on Brexit? What a cock-eyed version of history you have.Scott_xP said:
Let's gloss over another Brexiteer desperately trying to blame anyone, anything, for Brexit except the people that wanted it, advocated and voted for it, and cut straight to the fact that if Biden wins he was right...MarqueeMark said:a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit.
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I sense that MarqueeMark doesn’t like Obama because he pointed out that Brexit was a bad idea.6
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Don't worry folks. When Trump loses he will still have plenty of time to nuke CovidMarqueeMark said:
I'm fairly sure it didn't have the capacity to send them intercontinentally...ydoethur said:
North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.MarqueeMark said:
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.Mysticrose said:On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?0
