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The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2020 in General
imageThe Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com

If the polls have got this right then overnight we could see what is a relatively rare event in US politics – when a sitting President fails to get re-elected after a first term. It might not be that we get enough results to come to that conclusion for a day or so but you can sure that the legion of US political commentators will be examining every small move when hard voting figures becomes available and contrasting that which happened fours years ago when Trump won his shock victory.

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    US election day is just minutes away...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Dixville Notch live stream:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=400S_-6H9JA
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Yes
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Sounding more and more like Berlusconi ...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    TimT said:

    Sounding more and more like Berlusconi ...

    Talking about OGH?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Good morning all. The scene is set for the Democrats to sweep to power. The story will be the magnitude of the victory.

    Biden 330 + EC

    and the Senate will flip at least 5 to 6 seats.

    It will be a crushing victory that will set America on a new path.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.

    But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?

    Any thoughts very welcome.

    x
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

    It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Message sent
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    FPT:

    Final prediction: Biden 279, Trump 259.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    4 GOP Governor votes
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    Final prediction: Biden 279, Trump 259.

    A tight call.... I reckon Trump 229 Biden 309.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    DavidL said:
    On a staggeringly low turnout??
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323374653583360006

    According to this African American seniors are already at 124% of 2016 in Georgia. Trump has certainly riled up the voters like no President in my lifetime. Not just his own voters but all of them. One forecast we can make with confidence is that total votes cast is going to be a record. What effect this will have on the models is difficult to predict but it is unlikely that they have correctly modelled such turnout.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    FPT: @TimT - thanks for reply re RVs.

    All good reasons but I must say I do still find it surprising that it should lead to such a huge increase.

    Where does the figure for total RVs come from? Are we certain it is correct - has it been officially announced anywhere?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Comeback in Millsfield for Trump
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Andy_JS said:
    And that was a seriously close one that Nixon lost.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Pulpstar said:

    Comeback in Millsfield for Trump

    He won 16-4 in 2016, and he also got 16 votes in the Republican Primary, so my money is on him getting 16 votes again now...

    The question is whether Biden outperforms Hillary's 4 votes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:
    And that was a seriously close one that Nixon lost.
    Yes, I just noticed that too :lol:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    edited November 2020

    A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.

    But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?

    Any thoughts very welcome.

    x

    Probably midnight to 2am for the early results from the east coast and especially Florida, from which all sorts of extrapolations and predictions will be made. This is discussed in the last section of the latest 538 podcast/video, from the 42-minute mark. I really would not bother with the first 40 minutes.

    https://youtu.be/wH-Phtmw348?t=2516s
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    What's your shakiest bet on this election?

    I reckon mine is Bollier in Kansas. That looks like a loss to me. I'm not too confident on Texas for the Dems either, although I have a lot on Florida which I'm confident about.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    DecrepiterJohnL thank you so much - listening to it now. Great tip about the edit :smiley:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    My final guess is Biden 325-213. Trump holds Texas, Florida, Ohio but loses Georgia, Penn, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Listening to that I reckon it'll be fairly safe to get up at 1 am.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Well here we are, today's the day.

    Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.

    Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.

    Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I think Florida will finish off Trump very early on in the night.

    That's what virtually all the evidence tells me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    I think Florida will finish off Trump very early on in the night.

    That's what virtually all the evidence tells me.

    My assumption is that Florida will be TCTC for a long time, possibly days, but Trump edges it. I agree that if Biden is clearly ahead there it’s all over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Sandpit said:

    Well here we are, today's the day.

    Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.

    Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.

    Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).

    Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Millsfield election result is 16 - 5, so a small move from Trump to Biden.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Do we have the Millsfield result?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well here we are, today's the day.

    Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.

    Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.

    Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).

    Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.

    It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:

    pb.com
    538 live blog
    CNN television coverage
    New York Times
    Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    MikeL said:

    Do we have the Millsfield result?

    16-5 to Trump. He won 16-4 last time. I can't see a result for Hart's Location, though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    DavidL said:

    I think Florida will finish off Trump very early on in the night.

    That's what virtually all the evidence tells me.

    My assumption is that Florida will be TCTC for a long time, possibly days, but Trump edges it. I agree that if Biden is clearly ahead there it’s all over.
    It'll be interesting to see how the suburbs of Miami and Orlando vote, and how Seniors vote. We'll know less from the Hispanic vote, because it's very different to the rest of the US.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    tlg86 said:

    MikeL said:

    Do we have the Millsfield result?

    16-5 to Trump. He won 16-4 last time. I can't see a result for Hart's Location, though.
    It's not happening tonight, sadly. Which is a shame because it's much more "swingy" than either Dixville or Millsfield.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    Good piece on NBC entitled 'On election eve, this country is just unbelievably stressed out.'

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/election-eve-country-just-unbelievably-stressed-out-n1245841

    It's the most stressy election I've witnessed in my lifetime anywhere in the world.

    That's partly Covid, of course, and very largely Donald Trump's doing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well here we are, today's the day.

    Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.

    Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.

    Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).

    Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.

    It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:

    pb.com
    538 live blog
    CNN television coverage
    New York Times
    Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)

    I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Right. I'm off to bed.

    It's funny how I may know the result (if Florida isn't close) by 5pm.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well here we are, today's the day.

    Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.

    Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.

    Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).

    Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.

    It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:

    pb.com
    538 live blog
    CNN television coverage
    New York Times
    Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)

    I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.
    Can you not stream Fox on your laptop or device?

    Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well here we are, today's the day.

    Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.

    Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.

    Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).

    Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.

    It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:

    pb.com
    538 live blog
    CNN television coverage
    New York Times
    Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)

    I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.
    Can you not stream Fox on your laptop or device?

    Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.
    No you need a subscription. Unless anyone knows differently?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.

    But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?

    Any thoughts very welcome.

    x

    The BBC has just said Florida will report around 4am and Georgia at 4.30.

    So depends how long you need to make coffee and the run up to get into the drama. May be 3am?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I'm not sure putting Lady Gaga on stage was a smart move. If there was someone who might motivate people to vote for Trump, it's her.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

    It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
    It’s interesting

    Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well

    Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama

    But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.

    So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Charles said:

    A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.

    But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?

    Any thoughts very welcome.

    x

    The BBC has just said Florida will report around 4am and Georgia at 4.30.

    So depends how long you need to make coffee and the run up to get into the drama. May be 3am?
    I'm not sure I really trust any of the UK media with US elections, Charles. They always seem so far behind and missing key points?

    Florida counts very quickly so 538 reckon we will start to get results as soon as their polls close which is 7pm or midnight GMT. If the result is clearcut then we may start to know by 1am. Just saying that's the 538 opinion on their latest podcast (see below).

    However, judging by all the previous US elections I've stayed up for I agree with you. There's always a long, slow, drag in the early hours and of course never quite the same rush of results as we get here with 650 constituencies reporting.

    I suspect you're right about 3 am but, dammit, I think this time I want to be up to catch the first hints.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Mon close - 99.6m early votes recorded.

    However it's believed there are several hundred thousand not yet reported in New York and possibly also another large number in New Jersey.

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    My guess is that Biden will sweep the swing stares, including Texas, but come up short in Ohio and Iowa.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.

    Played for and got.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Lock him up! Lock him up! Lock him up!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    tlg86 said:

    I'm not sure putting Lady Gaga on stage was a smart move. If there was someone who might motivate people to vote for Trump, it's her.

    I doubt many would have watched or care. Too much is made of these rallies, does it move a single voter either way .
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Finally trialling a citywide testing program (Liverpool).
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54786130

    But what apparently they have not done is put in place measures to ensure isolation of infected individuals. The one without the other is only ever going to be partially effective.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he?

    Given Trump's bizarre, erratic and bellicose behaviour and the fact that the US is in the middle of a horrendous pandemic, Biden has been exactly what was required.

    A steady eddie. No major dramas. Previous experience. Safe.

    That was exactly what was required. It also meant that Trump had virtually no ammunition. A charismatic opponent would have been burnt back by Trump but he hasn't been able to get any real hold on Biden. 'Sleepy Joe' just faded away and the best they could come up with was some dodgy story about his son.

    I'm not saying I'm a huge Biden fan, just that he has surprisingly proved to be the right man for the time. In my opinion ;)

    All he needs to do now is stay alive.

    p.s. And Biden is why the Democrats will take Florida ...
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Be interesting to see how strong the shy Trump voter effect is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

    It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
    It’s interesting

    Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well

    Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama

    But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.

    So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
    Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    Good morning, everyone.

    Be interesting to see how strong the shy Trump voter effect is.

    And the Shy Biden vote.

    A much higher turnout throws uncertainty into an election night. Who are these extra people?

    On the whole high turnout is good for the Dems though.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

    It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
    It’s interesting

    Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well

    Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama

    But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.

    So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
    Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.
    I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.

    What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

    In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.

    p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    365 are now 8/13 biden. What are they seeing that I can't? Maybe continued money for trump irrespective of price.
  • Dr. Foxy, I agree on turnout. I somewhat regret not backing high turnout a little while ago when I was considering that, but there we are.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    A quick question for my fellow avid punters and political anoraks ... I want to be awake for this one but I'm an early bird, as many of you may have noticed. So I'm thinking that I will turn in earlier than my usual 10pm and get up earlier than my usual 4am.

    But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?

    Any thoughts very welcome.

    x

    The BBC has just said Florida will report around 4am and Georgia at 4.30.

    So depends how long you need to make coffee and the run up to get into the drama. May be 3am?
    I'm not sure I really trust any of the UK media with US elections, Charles. They always seem so far behind and missing key points?

    Florida counts very quickly so 538 reckon we will start to get results as soon as their polls close which is 7pm or midnight GMT. If the result is clearcut then we may start to know by 1am. Just saying that's the 538 opinion on their latest podcast (see below).

    However, judging by all the previous US elections I've stayed up for I agree with you. There's always a long, slow, drag in the early hours and of course never quite the same rush of results as we get here with 650 constituencies reporting.

    I suspect you're right about 3 am but, dammit, I think this time I want to be up to catch the first hints.
    For me, it doesn't really matter how long I sleep providing it's a multiple of 4 hours.

    So perhaps you should go to bed at 10.30, get up at 2.30 and make coffee...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.

    How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Charles said:

    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.

    How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
    Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nichomar said:

    Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.

    Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.

    Truly we are blessed in this time, the end of times
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    nico679 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm not sure putting Lady Gaga on stage was a smart move. If there was someone who might motivate people to vote for Trump, it's her.

    I doubt many would have watched or care. Too much is made of these rallies, does it move a single voter either way .
    Rallies are for the already convinced, but Trump certainly knows how to stage a rally. Triumph of the Will level theatrics.

    Corbyn used to get big crowds too.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

    It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
    It’s interesting

    Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well

    Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama

    But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.

    So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
    Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.
    I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.

    What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

    In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.

    p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
    I saw a short clip of her landing (in North Carolina?) the other day.

    She completely fluffed it. The reporter fed her so many patsies and she just gave flat replies that utterly missed the chances. I get that she's probably knackered, but she came across as a really crap politician.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.

    Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.

    Showing your true colours Charles. That's an appalling, derogatory, term to use.

    Time for me to bid the site adieu until tonight. Comments like that are more suited to Guido Fawkes than political betting. They demean the site.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

    It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
    It’s interesting

    Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well

    Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama

    But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.

    So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
    Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.
    I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.

    What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

    In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.

    p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
    I saw a short clip of her landing (in North Carolina?) the other day.

    She completely fluffed it. The reporter fed her so many patsies and she just gave flat replies that utterly missed the chances. I get that she's probably knackered, but she came across as a really crap politician.
    I thought she was very good on the virus.

    But, then, I don't think you and I are going to see eye to eye judging by your harpy remark.

    G'day everyone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.

    How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
    Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
    He likes the tax cuts for the rich. Not so keen on the culture war stuff.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

    It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
    It’s interesting

    Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well

    Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama

    But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.

    So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
    Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.
    I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.

    What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

    In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.

    p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
    She has real limitations as a politician but I think that she could well be a competent and effective President.

    Biden, well, hopefully he is not seriously tested and a way forward on the virus is clear by the time he takes the oath. He is going to be incredibly dependent upon the quality of the team round about him. Bloomberg may be a good pick for Secretary for the Treasury but he is going to have a serious job on his hands and he is no spring chicken either.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he?

    Given Trump's bizarre, erratic and bellicose behaviour and the fact that the US is in the middle of a horrendous pandemic, Biden has been exactly what was required.

    A steady eddie. No major dramas. Previous experience. Safe.

    That was exactly what was required. It also meant that Trump had virtually no ammunition. A charismatic opponent would have been burnt back by Trump but he hasn't been able to get any real hold on Biden. 'Sleepy Joe' just faded away and the best they could come up with was some dodgy story about his son.

    I'm not saying I'm a huge Biden fan, just that he has surprisingly proved to be the right man for the time. In my opinion ;)

    All he needs to do now is stay alive.

    p.s. And Biden is why the Democrats will take Florida ...
    Fingers crossed, but if he does somehow lose I think it's because that campaign did in fact reconfirm the Sleepy Joe thing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    edited November 2020

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    It's not clear that Trump's strategy has done any better with North Korea.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Trump with the rallies reminds me somewhat of Fidel Castro.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    rcs1000 said:

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    It's not clear that Trump's strategy has done any better with North Korea.
    Rage, which is a fun read, suggests he came within about 12 hours of things going catastrophically worse.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ydoethur said:

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.
    I’m pretty sure the Middle East was not at peace before 2008.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The Trump administration has had a better middle east than most. Domestically they've been disastrous
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.

    How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
    Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
    I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.

    But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    ydoethur said:

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.
    yeah, but Obama was pretty shit. He egged on the rise of autocratic China, did the occasional mass murder via drone and still told himself he was worth the Nobel Peace prize.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?

    Covid, maybe.

    Maybe.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Gaussian said:

    Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.

    How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
    Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
    I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.

    But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
    Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit.

    Let's gloss over another Brexiteer desperately trying to blame anyone, anything, for Brexit except the people that wanted it, advocated and voted for it, and cut straight to the fact that if Biden wins he was right...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    rcs1000 said:

    Trump with the rallies reminds me somewhat of Fidel Castro.

    Pithier and much, much shorter.

    What I find fascinating about him is that his speeches are so completely unstructured and the way he feeds off the crowd. He seems to riff a number of ideas or thoughts and waits to see which ones grab the crowd's attention and then doubles down on them. Its speech making for the soundbite age. Its extraordinary.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited November 2020
    ydoethur said:

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.
    I'm fairly sure it didn't have the capacity to send them intercontinentally...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?

    Covid, maybe.

    Maybe.

    Yes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    538 with a polling error of 3% favouring Trump:



    And the same with a 3% error favouring Biden:


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Pulpstar said:

    The Trump administration has had a better middle east than most. Domestically they've been disastrous

    The Middle East is a rare plus in the column, but one of note.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_xP said:

    a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit.

    Let's gloss over another Brexiteer desperately trying to blame anyone, anything, for Brexit except the people that wanted it, advocated and voted for it, and cut straight to the fact that if Biden wins he was right...
    You think Obama had no impact on Brexit? What a cock-eyed version of history you have.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    edited November 2020

    ydoethur said:

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.
    I'm fairly sure it didn't have the capacity to send them intercontinentally...
    Leaving aside the fact that’s not what you said, that’s also not relevant. Once you have nukes, they can be delivered somehow. By cargo plane under false papers, or by a ship and offloaded to be planted somewhere. Remember, America didn’t have ICBMs for over a decade after developing nuclear weapons.

    Admittedly, long range missiles are preferable, but I would point out they have continued developing quite happily under Trump as well.
  • After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?

    Covid, maybe.

    Maybe.

    Well I think not having a Putin fan as the president will help take on Putin. North Korea realistically cannot do anything without destroying themselves and China, well thats a world issue not just US.

    Domestically I see a Biden/Harris doing a lot more for its citizens than a Trump/Pence term.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Foxy said:

    538 with a polling error of 3% favouring Trump:



    And the same with a 3% error favouring Biden:


    Give Trump Wisconsin on his 3% underpolling scenario, and you have a Trump EC win by 2.....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited November 2020

    Scott_xP said:

    a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit.

    Let's gloss over another Brexiteer desperately trying to blame anyone, anything, for Brexit except the people that wanted it, advocated and voted for it, and cut straight to the fact that if Biden wins he was right...
    You think Obama had no impact on Brexit? What a cock-eyed version of history you have.
    Be gentle, he's trapped in 2016 and will never move on
  • ydoethur said:

    On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.

    "Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html

    Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.

    Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
    North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.
    I'm fairly sure it didn't have the capacity to send them intercontinentally...
    Don't worry folks. When Trump loses he will still have plenty of time to nuke Covid
This discussion has been closed.