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The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com
The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com
If the polls have got this right then overnight we could see what is a relatively rare event in US politics – when a sitting President fails to get re-elected after a first term. It might not be that we get enough results to come to that conclusion for a day or so but you can sure that the legion of US political commentators will be examining every small move when hard voting figures becomes available and contrasting that which happened fours years ago when Trump won his shock victory.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=400S_-6H9JA
Biden 330 + EC
and the Senate will flip at least 5 to 6 seats.
It will be a crushing victory that will set America on a new path.
But what time to set the alarm to meet and greet the action? Midnight? 1 am? 2 am?
Any thoughts very welcome.
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Final prediction: Biden 279, Trump 259.
According to this African American seniors are already at 124% of 2016 in Georgia. Trump has certainly riled up the voters like no President in my lifetime. Not just his own voters but all of them. One forecast we can make with confidence is that total votes cast is going to be a record. What effect this will have on the models is difficult to predict but it is unlikely that they have correctly modelled such turnout.
All good reasons but I must say I do still find it surprising that it should lead to such a huge increase.
Where does the figure for total RVs come from? Are we certain it is correct - has it been officially announced anywhere?
The question is whether Biden outperforms Hillary's 4 votes.
https://youtu.be/wH-Phtmw348?t=2516s
I reckon mine is Bollier in Kansas. That looks like a loss to me. I'm not too confident on Texas for the Dems either, although I have a lot on Florida which I'm confident about.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
That's what virtually all the evidence tells me.
pb.com
538 live blog
CNN television coverage
New York Times
Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/election-eve-country-just-unbelievably-stressed-out-n1245841
It's the most stressy election I've witnessed in my lifetime anywhere in the world.
That's partly Covid, of course, and very largely Donald Trump's doing.
It's funny how I may know the result (if Florida isn't close) by 5pm.
Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.
So depends how long you need to make coffee and the run up to get into the drama. May be 3am?
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
Florida counts very quickly so 538 reckon we will start to get results as soon as their polls close which is 7pm or midnight GMT. If the result is clearcut then we may start to know by 1am. Just saying that's the 538 opinion on their latest podcast (see below).
However, judging by all the previous US elections I've stayed up for I agree with you. There's always a long, slow, drag in the early hours and of course never quite the same rush of results as we get here with 650 constituencies reporting.
I suspect you're right about 3 am but, dammit, I think this time I want to be up to catch the first hints.
Therefore, only he can take decisions and get them right.
The tiny flaw in this reasoning is he’s not actually that bright and he has neither the patience nor the intelligence to understand complex problems. Therefore all his solutions are simplistic and unworkable, often having the opposite effect of what he intended.
Meanwhile, he refuses to listen to those people who are actually bright and knowledgeable and disagree with him, because he genuinely thinks he’s brilliant and they’re stupid (see point one) but being unable to actually refute what they say, because he’s wrong, he comes out with a lot of mindless abuse of them instead.
It makes him at one and the same time an outstanding campaigner (because he reduces his ideas to easy if empty slogans) and a bloody hopeless manager/administrator.
However it's believed there are several hundred thousand not yet reported in New York and possibly also another large number in New Jersey.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54786130
But what apparently they have not done is put in place measures to ensure isolation of infected individuals. The one without the other is only ever going to be partially effective.
A steady eddie. No major dramas. Previous experience. Safe.
That was exactly what was required. It also meant that Trump had virtually no ammunition. A charismatic opponent would have been burnt back by Trump but he hasn't been able to get any real hold on Biden. 'Sleepy Joe' just faded away and the best they could come up with was some dodgy story about his son.
I'm not saying I'm a huge Biden fan, just that he has surprisingly proved to be the right man for the time. In my opinion
All he needs to do now is stay alive.
p.s. And Biden is why the Democrats will take Florida ...
Be interesting to see how strong the shy Trump voter effect is.
A much higher turnout throws uncertainty into an election night. Who are these extra people?
On the whole high turnout is good for the Dems though.
What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.
p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
So perhaps you should go to bed at 10.30, get up at 2.30 and make coffee...
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/trump-america-world.html
Truly we are blessed in this time, the end of times
Corbyn used to get big crowds too.
She completely fluffed it. The reporter fed her so many patsies and she just gave flat replies that utterly missed the chances. I get that she's probably knackered, but she came across as a really crap politician.
Time for me to bid the site adieu until tonight. Comments like that are more suited to Guido Fawkes than political betting. They demean the site.
But, then, I don't think you and I are going to see eye to eye judging by your harpy remark.
G'day everyone.
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
Biden, well, hopefully he is not seriously tested and a way forward on the virus is clear by the time he takes the oath. He is going to be incredibly dependent upon the quality of the team round about him. Bloomberg may be a good pick for Secretary for the Treasury but he is going to have a serious job on his hands and he is no spring chicken either.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.
What I find fascinating about him is that his speeches are so completely unstructured and the way he feeds off the crowd. He seems to riff a number of ideas or thoughts and waits to see which ones grab the crowd's attention and then doubles down on them. Its speech making for the soundbite age. Its extraordinary.
And the same with a 3% error favouring Biden:
Admittedly, long range missiles are preferable, but I would point out they have continued developing quite happily under Trump as well.
Domestically I see a Biden/Harris doing a lot more for its citizens than a Trump/Pence term.