Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.
Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.
Truly we are blessed in this time, the end of times
Wow. With its regular dockside analogies and this sort of stuff, it’s hard to grasp why PB attracts so few women to the site.
On the foreign policy point, Trump has had a few successes but also MANY disasters. The US standing in the world has plummeted and his actions with China and trade war have been godawful. I don't know a single American news outlet, except Fox, that praises what Trump has done for America in the world.
"Trump has made the whole world darker" (New York Times £££)
Yet 8 years of Obama gave us North Korea with nukes. And a "back of the queue" backlash that helped deliver Brexit. And a Middle East tearing itself apart. And a Putin emboldened to meddle in US elections.
Perhaps American foreign policy is limited to long-range demolition these days?
North Korea had nukes in 2007. I’m fairly sure GWB was President at that time.
I'm fairly sure it didn't have the capacity to send them intercontinentally...
Don't worry folks. When Trump loses he will still have plenty of time to nuke Covid
Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.
Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.
Truly we are blessed in this time, the end of times
Wow. With its regular dockside analogies and this sort of stuff, it’s hard to grasp why PB attracts so few women to the site.
The Trump administration has had a better middle east than most. Domestically they've been disastrous
I think its much more mixed. He was doing well on the economy pre-Covid. He put a lot of pressure on US businesses to invest in the US with positive results for employment. His deals with the tech giants to pay at least some tax on their huge untaxed offshore earnings worked well for the US.
The racial tension BLM issues have been a disaster making the US even more divided than it was before.
Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.
Marquee, Charles and Alanbrooke are all Trumptons I think.
Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.
Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.
Truly we are blessed in this time, the end of times
Wow. With its regular dockside analogies and this sort of stuff, it’s hard to grasp why PB attracts so few women to the site.
Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.
Marquee, Charles and Alanbrooke are all Trumptons I think.
Personally Id vote for neither but I don't have your mad hysteria of everything Trump did was wrong and the consequent inability to look at the issue rationally. As DavidL says below his record is mixed, just like nearly every president before him.
The polls appear to be sorted in "average" date order (middle of start and finish dates) and they have highlighted the 8 most recent. If they always select the 8 most recent or all the ones within x days either would be a reasonable selection process.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.
It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:
pb.com 538 live blog CNN television coverage New York Times Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)
I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.
Can you not stream Fox on your laptop or device?
Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.
No you need a subscription. Unless anyone knows differently?
With most agreeing PA is about 5% or so in favour of Biden , it only takes that 3% and one slightly bigger polling error there to get Trump home . I'm still bullish about AZ though and expect Biden to win there. If he does and did lose PA 269 tie? Go ME2 we need you! Even so that 3% error and a bit in PA would be a total disaster for most of the pollsters , except bow tie man and one or two others ofc.
Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.
Marquee, Charles and Alanbrooke are all Trumptons I think.
Tbf, Charles did come out as reluctant Biden (see post at 6.19).
The problem I see is that the criteria for furlough payments have to be reasonably consistent and Nicola's being different for the sake of it makes that difficult. In England furlough is going to be available to businesses that have had to shut down because people have been asked to stay at home as much as possible. In Scotland, under tier 3, all shops are still open and you are free to attend the office if you think its necessary. Pubs are open albeit operating under the most ridiculous restrictions. Restaurants likewise.
I think that to qualify for furlough Scotland may have to go to tier 4 which is pretty close to the English lockdown. Nicola may announce that for the central belt at least today.
Trump has very openly courted white supremacists. His racism makes him unfit for office. Here's hoping enough American voters in the right places agree - and that the GOP's attempts to stop them being heard fail.
History Repeats Itself (Trump/Biden Do as well as last time): Biden by 2% Fortune Does not Favour Biden (Biden does as bas as Kerry): Biden by 1% Fortune Favours Trump (He does as well as Romeny): Biden by 0.2% History Does Not Favour Biden and Totally Favours Trump: Trump by 0.01%
Golf is 60 hectares of outdoor space and about 100 people. Short of visiting Outer Hebrides I am not sure how to be more socially distanced in the UK.
UK Trump supporter party?
I think the polling was about 20% Trump fans in the UK?
UK population density 280, so Trump UK fan population density 56, vs global land population density 52 so still more crowded than average. And many wont be wearing MASKS.
When the grand history of Brexit is written, and guilty are listed, I do not expect to see Obama's name near the top of the list
A LOT of people were pissed off by Obama's intervention.
They were the sort of people I doubt you ever come into contact with, or opinions you ever hear.
That's true though probably not enough to swing votes.
Most people who were pissed off would be those who were already going to vote Leave for other reasons.
Obama's remarks were counterproductive but probably irrelevant in the scheme of things. Of the Remainers who helped Leave win the big two were Blair and Brown.
Right, where to watch tonight? I see #BBC have Andrew Neil, etc. And I might watch some #538 on YouTube.
Is there anything else to watch in UK that people would recommend? TIA
PS. What's the PB Zoom I've heard mentioned?
I don't think British broadcasters endlessly explaining the Electoral College will be up to much, and for informed (and ill informed!) commentary PB is better.
A US stream would be good. I remember watching a US stream in 2016 with county level data feeding maps live for both IN and KY. Both Republican of course, but the swing in the Midwest will be key. It might have been Fox, but memory fails me.
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.
It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:
pb.com 538 live blog CNN television coverage New York Times Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)
I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.
Can you not stream Fox on your laptop or device?
Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.
No you need a subscription. Unless anyone knows differently?
I found a live stream the other day.
If you were able to find the link that would be great.
When the grand history of Brexit is written, and guilty are listed, I do not expect to see Obama's name near the top of the list
A LOT of people were pissed off by Obama's intervention.
They were the sort of people I doubt you ever come into contact with, or opinions you ever hear.
And they were all pretty nailed on to vote Leave anyway.
We later found that Brexiteers didn’t want trade deals, so being at the back of the queue was an attractive incentive for them. Little did we know at the time.
“There’s a fine line between a landslide and a nail biter .”
Although Biden has some back up states I think the leads there aren’t strong enough to really have a lot of confidence in them .
As for turnout it’s hard to know what you’d want to see if you’re in the Biden camp , and if you get higher turnout is that across the board or concentrated in areas which favour either camp .
After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.
Hang on.
Trump has made confronting China much, much harder.
Obama put together the Trans Pacific Partnership as a US led economic system that tied together everyone other than China in the Pacific Basin. It would have been the primary goods market, and the US (and Australia and Japan and Korea) would have been setting the rules.
Trump walked away from it. Now, the TPP (amazingly) still exists, but the US has abrogated its role.
You beat China by providing an alternative to then for all the other countries in the region.
Throughout the world, by pulling back and spurning traditional allies, Trump has made China stronger and more influential, rather than less. Countries haven't had to choose between the US and China, because the US made it very clear that it only considers its narrow "right now" interest and not in creating a system to constrain China.
One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,
It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.
It’s interesting
Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well
Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama
But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.
So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden
Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.
I agree with most of that but not sure about the final sentence.
What I do agree on is that the Dems have got lucky. Very lucky. When you think back to the problems during the primaries they very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
In any other set of circumstances the choice of Joe Biden probably would have been disastrous.
p.s. I've been quite impressed by Kamala.
She has real limitations as a politician but I think that she could well be a competent and effective President.
Biden, well, hopefully he is not seriously tested and a way forward on the virus is clear by the time he takes the oath. He is going to be incredibly dependent upon the quality of the team round about him. Bloomberg may be a good pick for Secretary for the Treasury but he is going to have a serious job on his hands and he is no spring chicken either.
From the hash and incompetence that apparently “good campaigners” have made of things - Trump, Bozo, Farage - even Obama being underwhelming in office - perhaps we voters should actively be looking for people whose skills lie elsewhere?
Golf is 60 hectares of outdoor space and about 100 people. Short of visiting Outer Hebrides I am not sure how to be more socially distanced in the UK.
UK Trump supporter party?
I think the polling was about 20% Trump fans in the UK?
UK population density 280, so Trump UK fan population density 56, vs global land population density 52 so still more crowded than average. And many wont be wearing MASKS.
The strongest Constituency for Trump is Grimsby at 35%, but even there 2:1 for Biden. Hull and Castle Point were not far behind.
It doesnt matter anymore. The rules are not being enforced. People dont know the rules, not even the people who make them. They are not logical. People adapt and misinterpret them to suit themselves.
But what happens is the tone of the rules does drive behaviour, people do moderate their activity based on them, but no longer follow them.
Pleased this year to see the very large number of Republicans who have come out for Biden.
Shows that there is a decent core in the Republican Party somewhere that can hopefully help rebuild it. Hopefully Trump gets ground into dust and as many of his enablers as possible like Graham get chucked out too. As he himself recognised four years ago - he'd deserve it.
Whatever you think of the whole "return America to a mythical bygone age of decency" schtick, you have to admit Biden's team have played that hand flawlessly. Dixville Notch Republican endorsing Biden:
Those saying Trump was doing well on the economy pre-Covid are surely not Conservatives who lambasted Labour for running big deficits during periods of growth are they?
Almost 5% deficit in 2019 via unfunded tax cuts far exceeds anything in the UK before the financial crisis.
After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.
Hang on.
Trump has made confronting China much, much harder.
Obama put together the Trans Pacific Partnership as a US led economic system that tied together everyone other than China in the Pacific Basin. It would have been the primary goods market, and the US (and Australia and Japan and Korea) would have been setting the rules.
Trump walked away from it. Now, the TPP (amazingly) still exists, but the US has abrogated its role.
You beat China by providing an alternative to then for all the other countries in the region.
Throughout the world, by pulling back and spurning traditional allies, Trump has made China stronger and more influential, rather than less. Countries haven't had to choose between the US and China, because the US made it very clear that it only considers its narrow "right now" interest and not in creating a system to constrain China.
hmmm
I cant see how Obama's policy of encouraging manufacturing jobs to China, passing legislation which penalised his own country but which China ignored and becoming a dependent on loans from China was more successful.
“There’s a fine line between a landslide and a nail biter .”
Although Biden has some back up states I think the leads there aren’t strong enough to really have a lot of confidence in them .
As for turnout it’s hard to know what you’d want to see if you’re in the Biden camp , and if you get higher turnout is that across the board or concentrated in areas which favour either camp .
PV/EC mismatch is actually very rare, only happening twice in the modern era, one of those by 0.5%. 2016 was very much the exception, and since then the evidence of a blue collar white swing to the Dems is a pretty consistent finding.
Trump under 200 EV has been my pretty constant prediction for the last couple of months.
Off to work shortly. It's not much fun at present, though not so bad as up the road in Nottingham.
And the Foxes 1 point off top in the PL is always nice to see. 🙂 ⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️
Given Trump's bizarre, erratic and bellicose behaviour and the fact that the US is in the middle of a horrendous pandemic, Biden has been exactly what was required.
A steady eddie. No major dramas. Previous experience. Safe.
That was exactly what was required. It also meant that Trump had virtually no ammunition. A charismatic opponent would have been burnt back by Trump but he hasn't been able to get any real hold on Biden. 'Sleepy Joe' just faded away and the best they could come up with was some dodgy story about his son.
I'm not saying I'm a huge Biden fan, just that he has surprisingly proved to be the right man for the time. In my opinion
All he needs to do now is stay alive.
p.s. And Biden is why the Democrats will take Florida ...
Fingers crossed, but if he does somehow lose I think it's because that campaign did in fact reconfirm the Sleepy Joe thing.
Possibly, but on balance I think Mysticrose is right. I like Bernie, but he'd have given lots of openings for Trump.
Golf is 60 hectares of outdoor space and about 100 people. Short of visiting Outer Hebrides I am not sure how to be more socially distanced in the UK.
Clearly they’re not trusted to avoid piling into the clubhouse.
Or the govt spent no time between May and the end of October planning how a second lockdown could be optimised based on actual risk, costs and benefits, instead panicked a day before its u-turn and just came up with a blanket ban on everything.
After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.
Hang on.
Trump has made confronting China much, much harder.
Obama put together the Trans Pacific Partnership as a US led economic system that tied together everyone other than China in the Pacific Basin. It would have been the primary goods market, and the US (and Australia and Japan and Korea) would have been setting the rules.
Trump walked away from it. Now, the TPP (amazingly) still exists, but the US has abrogated its role.
You beat China by providing an alternative to then for all the other countries in the region.
Throughout the world, by pulling back and spurning traditional allies, Trump has made China stronger and more influential, rather than less. Countries haven't had to choose between the US and China, because the US made it very clear that it only considers its narrow "right now" interest and not in creating a system to constrain China.
This. Trump has alienated, to a greater or lesser extent, just about every ally the US has, with the exception of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
A big uncertainty for me is the apparently huge amount of additional Registered Voters this election. How many are there? What % increase on last time? How come? How do they split on party lines? Is it all legit?
It seems likely that the vast majority of Registered Voters will vote so if the numbers have truly gone up as much as is suggested then 160 million + votes does seem to be likely.
The best Labour figures since 2018, with a potential gain of 5 Westminster seats. We are short of a pro-Labour Welsh contributor here for balance - if you only went by PB, you'd think that Drakeford was generally despised and Labour was falling apart there.
After 4 years of Biden/Harris, anyone think the US will be in a better place to take on China? Putin? North Korea?
Covid, maybe.
Maybe.
Hang on.
Trump has made confronting China much, much harder.
Obama put together the Trans Pacific Partnership as a US led economic system that tied together everyone other than China in the Pacific Basin. It would have been the primary goods market, and the US (and Australia and Japan and Korea) would have been setting the rules.
Trump walked away from it. Now, the TPP (amazingly) still exists, but the US has abrogated its role.
You beat China by providing an alternative to then for all the other countries in the region.
Throughout the world, by pulling back and spurning traditional allies, Trump has made China stronger and more influential, rather than less. Countries haven't had to choose between the US and China, because the US made it very clear that it only considers its narrow "right now" interest and not in creating a system to constrain China.
This. Trump has alienated, to a greater or lesser extent, just about every ally the US has, with the exception of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
For balance, he has created new ones in Putin and Kim Jong-un.
Whatever you think of the whole "return America to a mythical bygone age of decency" schtick, you have to admit Biden's team have played that hand flawlessly...
I think it’s more pulling the US back from the brink of civil war.
If you believe that Republican vote suppression measures have been successful over many years, how much will the polls be picking up the extent to which massive increase in mail in voting etc will have undermined that?
OT but worth a mention. AFC Wimbledon will be playing at Plough Lane this evening for the first time in 29 years.* A fantastic achievement and shows how community action can be transformative, even if it takes a long time.
* Aware technically AFC Wimbledon and Wimbledon FC are distinct.
Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.
Marquee, Charles and Alanbrooke are all Trumptons I think.
Fuck off am I a "Trumpton". Wouldn't have voted for either Trump or Clinton in 2016, wouldn't vote for either Trump or Biden in 2020.
Trump does not deserve a second term. Biden does not deserve a first. Biden is very, very lucky to be up against Trump. Against any other Republican, he barely wins 200 EC votes.
I expect him to be President by this time tomorrow.
When the grand history of Brexit is written, and guilty are listed, I do not expect to see Obama's name near the top of the list
A LOT of people were pissed off by Obama's intervention.
They were the sort of people I doubt you ever come into contact with, or opinions you ever hear.
That's true though probably not enough to swing votes.
Most people who were pissed off would be those who were already going to vote Leave for other reasons.
Obama's remarks were counterproductive but probably irrelevant in the scheme of things. Of the Remainers who helped Leave win the big two were Blair and Brown.
The biggest single contribution to the Leave vote winning was from Jeremy Corbyn
1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it. 2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate. 3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.
“There’s a fine line between a landslide and a nail biter .”
Although Biden has some back up states I think the leads there aren’t strong enough to really have a lot of confidence in them .
As for turnout it’s hard to know what you’d want to see if you’re in the Biden camp , and if you get higher turnout is that across the board or concentrated in areas which favour either camp .
PV/EC mismatch is actually very rare, only happening twice in the modern era, one of those by 0.5%. 2016 was very much the exception, and since then the evidence of a blue collar white swing to the Dems is a pretty consistent finding.
Trump under 200 EV has been my pretty constant prediction for the last couple of months.
Off to work shortly. It's not much fun at present, though not so bad as up the road in Nottingham.
And the Foxes 1 point off top in the PL is always nice to see. 🙂 ⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️
Don't be despondent. As soon as Cummings has thought of a little rhyming couplet we'll all be out clapping you lot again
Time to catch up on some sleep and be back up in the middle of the night.
Good luck to all the bettors on what must be the biggest political betting event in history - personally I've got very little at stake so far, but interested in the early Florida results pointing us in the right direction for the Presidential race.
Let's hope that, one way or the other, we get a clean result rather than weeks of disruptive wrangling (but I said the same on the morning of the Brexit referendum too, and look how that worked out!).
Be on Sporting Index, Betfair, SpreadEx, Smarkets and track the early Florida data like a hawk.
It's good that podcast discussed which browswers you're going to have open. What are people intending to have open? I think for me something like:
pb.com 538 live blog CNN television coverage New York Times Twitter (I guess but it's a frankly stupid place)
I really miss Fox News on UK tv. It was partisan, biased but genuinely entertaining, sometimes intentionally. CNN are pompous, portentous and boring although their increasing despair in 2016 was quite funny.
Can you not stream Fox on your laptop or device?
Well I will admit I've not used CNN for an election before. But I like John King.
No you need a subscription. Unless anyone knows differently?
I found a live stream the other day.
If you were able to find the link that would be great.
A big uncertainty for me is the apparently huge amount of additional Registered Voters this election. How many are there? What % increase on last time? How come? How do they split on party lines? Is it all legit?
It seems likely that the vast majority of Registered Voters will vote so if the numbers have truly gone up as much as is suggested then 160 million + votes does seem to be likely.
Those who didn’t vote in 2016 and those who chose third party candidates then are breaking heavily for Biden . The Reps have narrowed the gap in voter registration in the swing states but this could be previous non affiliated who supported Trump in 2016.
In terms of independents Biden is currently winning those although in the current polarization it’s hard to believe there’s really any true independent voters out there.
When the grand history of Brexit is written, and guilty are listed, I do not expect to see Obama's name near the top of the list
A LOT of people were pissed off by Obama's intervention.
They were the sort of people I doubt you ever come into contact with, or opinions you ever hear.
That's true though probably not enough to swing votes.
Most people who were pissed off would be those who were already going to vote Leave for other reasons.
Obama's remarks were counterproductive but probably irrelevant in the scheme of things. Of the Remainers who helped Leave win the big two were Blair and Brown.
The biggest single contribution to the Leave vote winning was from Jeremy Corbyn
But he was a Shy Leaver.
Of the Remainers the biggest contribution was Blair then Brown reneging on the Lisbon Treaty referendum. That set in motion the train of events leading to Brexit.
When the grand history of Brexit is written, and guilty are listed, I do not expect to see Obama's name near the top of the list
A LOT of people were pissed off by Obama's intervention.
They were the sort of people I doubt you ever come into contact with, or opinions you ever hear.
That's true though probably not enough to swing votes.
Most people who were pissed off would be those who were already going to vote Leave for other reasons.
Obama's remarks were counterproductive but probably irrelevant in the scheme of things. Of the Remainers who helped Leave win the big two were Blair and Brown.
The biggest single contribution to the Leave vote winning was from Jeremy Corbyn
But he was a Shy Leaver.
Of the Remainers the biggest contribution was Blair then Brown reneging on the Lisbon Treaty referendum. That set in motion the train of events leading to Brexit.
The financial crisis and its impacts had far more to do with that than Lisbon.
Corbyn did sod all in the Referendum campaign despite being leader of the party that contained by far the largest number of Remain supporters. Had Starmer been leader then, Remain would probably have won.
Golf is 60 hectares of outdoor space and about 100 people. Short of visiting Outer Hebrides I am not sure how to be more socially distanced in the UK.
Clearly they’re not trusted to avoid piling into the clubhouse.
Or the govt spent no time between May and the end of October planning how a second lockdown could be optimised based on actual risk, costs and benefits, instead panicked a day before its u-turn and just came up with a blanket ban on everything.
If you believe that Republican vote suppression measures have been successful over many years, how much will the polls be picking up the extent to which massive increase in mail in voting etc will have undermined that?
Yes, that is an interesting possibility. Also, there has been a lot of attention paid to Republican voter suppression measures this year which might make them less effective.
The thing I'm worried about is, if it's close, that rejected "naked ballots" in Pennsylvania will give the presidency to the rightful loser (Trump).
Mr. Fire, I agree. If it hadn't been for Corbyn, Remain would likely have won.
Of course, it's also true that if the incumbent PM hadn't gone for Leave then we probably would've stayed in.
However, I do think the Lisbon Treaty reneging was critical because it massively undermined trust, and made it so a straightforward treaty rejection was impossible.
I'm not seeing positives when I look at Trump's Middle East foreign policy. 1. He's been utterly craven in the face of authoritarian leaders, as in general. 2. Betrayed US allies the Kurds to Erdogan who had done so much of the ground fighting against IS. 3. Failed to ensure that Saudi Arabia paid a price for the brutal murder of a journalist. 4. Ceded influence in the region to Russia. 5. Further eroded Palestinian trust in the US as an honest broker by moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. 6. Tore up the deal with Iran solely because it was an Obama achievement.
I'm no fan of US foreign policy over the decades, far from it, but there's no basis to say that he made things at all better.
Golf is 60 hectares of outdoor space and about 100 people. Short of visiting Outer Hebrides I am not sure how to be more socially distanced in the UK.
Clearly they’re not trusted to avoid piling into the clubhouse.
Or the govt spent no time between May and the end of October planning how a second lockdown could be optimised based on actual risk, costs and benefits, instead panicked a day before its u-turn and just came up with a blanket ban on everything.
I know which I think is more likely.
Both ?
Not really, they could just lock clubhouses if that was the issue.
Trump with the rallies reminds me somewhat of Fidel Castro.
Pithier and much, much shorter.
What I find fascinating about him is that his speeches are so completely unstructured and the way he feeds off the crowd. He seems to riff a number of ideas or thoughts and waits to see which ones grab the crowd's attention and then doubles down on them. Its speech making for the soundbite age. Its extraordinary.
Castro was intellectually a million miles stronger than Trump. His speeches went on for hours but were full of content. He clapped the crowd, as Trump does. He may even have originated that practice. Trump is an exceptionally skilled speaker, which is perhaps not surprising since he has been making money "playing himself" on TV for years. His use of hand gestures also marks him out, although Boris Johnson has now followed suit. I can't think of any other political speaker who uses such finely honed gestures to such an extent as Trump. Many have a repertoire of rough ones, or they chop the air or whatnot, and Angela Merkel has the static "quadrilateral" [*]. but Trump tops the table in this department. (But he'll still lose .)
Note *) The quadrilateral is also employed by Trump when seated, but probably rather than being part of the delivery it's just a nerves thing - just watch him pat handrails to see how nervous he is - but mostly he gets it under control. With the handrails he's probably repeating a phrase to himself, as advised in his "guru" Norman Vincent Peale's book.
Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.
How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?
Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.
I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.
But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)
Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.
Marquee, Charles and Alanbrooke are all Trumptons I think.
Fuck off am I a "Trumpton". Wouldn't have voted for either Trump or Clinton in 2016, wouldn't vote for either Trmp or Biden in 2020.
Trump does not deserve a second term. Biden does not deserve a first. Biden is very, very lucky to be up against Trump. Against any other Republican, he barely wins 200 EC votes.
I expect him to be President by this time tomorrow.
I do not expect him to serve a full term.
I wouldnt get too excited, Anabobazina is just one of those people who feels the need to conform to herd thinking. The funniest moment of the campaign was when John Lydon wrongfooted the hysteria and said he was voting Trump.
Trump with the rallies reminds me somewhat of Fidel Castro.
Pithier and much, much shorter.
What I find fascinating about him is that his speeches are so completely unstructured and the way he feeds off the crowd. He seems to riff a number of ideas or thoughts and waits to see which ones grab the crowd's attention and then doubles down on them. Its speech making for the soundbite age. Its extraordinary.
Castro was intellectually a million miles stronger than Trump. His speeches went on for hours but were full of content. He clapped the crowd, as Trump does. He may even have originated that practice. Trump is an exceptionally skilled speaker, which is perhaps not surprising since he has been making money "playing himself" on TV for years. His use of hand gestures also marks him out, although Boris Johnson has now followed suit. I can't think of any other political speaker who uses such finely honed gestures to such an extent as Trump. Many have a repertoire of rough ones, or they chop the air or whatnot, and Angela Merkel has the static "quadrilateral" (also employed by Trump when he has seated), but Trump tops the table in this department. (But he'll still lose :-) )
Hopefully he doesn't yet practice his gestures in front of a mirror
1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it. 2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate. 3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.
I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous
1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it. 2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate. 3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.
I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous
Is there any provable link between what Hunter Biden did (or may have done) and his father? If not, why should he be accountable for the actions of his adult son?
I'm not seeing positives when I look at Trump's Middle East foreign policy. 1. He's been utterly craven in the face of authoritarian leaders, as in general. 2. Betrayed US allies the Kurds to Erdogan who had done so much of the ground fighting against IS. 3. Failed to ensure that Saudi Arabia paid a price for the brutal murder of a journalist. 4. Ceded influence in the region to Russia. 5. Further eroded Palestinian trust in the US as an honest broker by moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. 6. Tore up the deal with Iran solely because it was an Obama achievement.
I'm no fan of US foreign policy over the decades, far from it, but there's no basis to say that he made things at all better.
The positives depend on your perspective. If the US is no longer needing ME oil, then why get involved in a cesspit that eats your citizens money and lives. China and Europe depend more on ME oil so they should do their own police work.
When the grand history of Brexit is written, and guilty are listed, I do not expect to see Obama's name near the top of the list
A LOT of people were pissed off by Obama's intervention.
They were the sort of people I doubt you ever come into contact with, or opinions you ever hear.
That's true though probably not enough to swing votes.
Most people who were pissed off would be those who were already going to vote Leave for other reasons.
Obama's remarks were counterproductive but probably irrelevant in the scheme of things. Of the Remainers who helped Leave win the big two were Blair and Brown.
Is this a market without Boris "two letters" Johnson?
Texas results will start coming in very early: https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/30/texas-election-night/ The vast majority of the votes in Texas will be cast before Election Day. In 2016, 73% of votes were cast early. This year, that share could be higher. Most counties will report their early votes in one big batch, within about an hour of when the polls close...
Polls close at 7pm Central time (except for a few counties an hour later), which is 1pm our time, I think.
1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it. 2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate. 3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.
I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous
You really need to read up on Hunter Biden Roger. Makes Trump look angelic.
Texas results will start coming in very early: https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/30/texas-election-night/ The vast majority of the votes in Texas will be cast before Election Day. In 2016, 73% of votes were cast early. This year, that share could be higher. Most counties will report their early votes in one big batch, within about an hour of when the polls close...
Polls close at 7pm Central time (except for a few counties an hour later), which is 1pm our time, I think.
1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it. 2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate. 3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.
I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous
Is there any provable link between what Hunter Biden did (or may have done) and his father? If not, why should he be accountable for the actions of his adult son?
The best Labour figures since 2018, with a potential gain of 5 Westminster seats. We are short of a pro-Labour Welsh contributor here for balance - if you only went by PB, you'd think that Drakeford was generally despised and Labour was falling apart there.
Short of a pro-Labour contributor from Wales? MexicanPete? ValleyBoy? I think the Jezziah also used to post from South Wales, although no more.
You have done some cherry-picking in the article regarding the Westminster seat tally (the Westminsterr Welsh seats are to be reduced dramatically next time). However, here are some cherries I picked
"The most unpopular measure was the closure of supermarket aisles selling goods deemed "non-essential". Just 30% of people said they supported the decision made by the Welsh Government to close supermarket aisles selling these items."
Or,
"People were also asked how much they like or dislike the political leaders. The First Minister, Mark Drakeford saw his rating out of 10 drop from 5.4 to 4.9."
Comments
When the grand history of Brexit is written, and guilty are listed, I do not expect to see Obama's name near the top of the list
surely top of the list will be Dickhead Dave for calling the vote in the first place. ?
They were the sort of people I doubt you ever come into contact with, or opinions you ever hear.
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1323468628789002242?s=19
The racial tension BLM issues have been a disaster making the US even more divided than it was before.
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1323527178773008384
Even so that 3% error and a bit in PA would be a total disaster for most of the pollsters , except bow tie man and one or two others ofc.
Right, where to watch tonight?
I see #BBC have Andrew Neil, etc.
And I might watch some #538 on YouTube.
Is there anything else to watch in UK that people would recommend? TIA
PS. What's the PB Zoom I've heard mentioned?
I think that to qualify for furlough Scotland may have to go to tier 4 which is pretty close to the English lockdown. Nicola may announce that for the central belt at least today.
History Repeats Itself (Trump/Biden Do as well as last time): Biden by 2%
Fortune Does not Favour Biden (Biden does as bas as Kerry): Biden by 1%
Fortune Favours Trump (He does as well as Romeny): Biden by 0.2%
History Does Not Favour Biden and Totally Favours Trump: Trump by 0.01%
Call: Biden Wins Nevada
UK population density 280, so Trump UK fan population density 56, vs global land population density 52 so still more crowded than average. And many wont be wearing MASKS.
Most people who were pissed off would be those who were already going to vote Leave for other reasons.
Obama's remarks were counterproductive but probably irrelevant in the scheme of things. Of the Remainers who helped Leave win the big two were Blair and Brown.
A US stream would be good. I remember watching a US stream in 2016 with county level data feeding maps live for both IN and KY. Both Republican of course, but the swing in the Midwest will be key. It might have been Fox, but memory fails me.
“There’s a fine line between a landslide and a nail biter .”
Although Biden has some back up states I think the leads there aren’t strong enough to really have a lot of confidence in them .
As for turnout it’s hard to know what you’d want to see if you’re in the Biden camp , and if you get higher turnout is that across the board or concentrated in areas which favour either camp .
Trump has made confronting China much, much harder.
Obama put together the Trans Pacific Partnership as a US led economic system that tied together everyone other than China in the Pacific Basin. It would have been the primary goods market, and the US (and Australia and Japan and Korea) would have been setting the rules.
Trump walked away from it. Now, the TPP (amazingly) still exists, but the US has abrogated its role.
You beat China by providing an alternative to then for all the other countries in the region.
Throughout the world, by pulling back and spurning traditional allies, Trump has made China stronger and more influential, rather than less. Countries haven't had to choose between the US and China, because the US made it very clear that it only considers its narrow "right now" interest and not in creating a system to constrain China.
But what happens is the tone of the rules does drive behaviour, people do moderate their activity based on them, but no longer follow them.
Shows that there is a decent core in the Republican Party somewhere that can hopefully help rebuild it. Hopefully Trump gets ground into dust and as many of his enablers as possible like Graham get chucked out too. As he himself recognised four years ago - he'd deserve it.
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1323471920117985280
Almost 5% deficit in 2019 via unfunded tax cuts far exceeds anything in the UK before the financial crisis.
I cant see how Obama's policy of encouraging manufacturing jobs to China, passing legislation which penalised his own country but which China ignored and becoming a dependent on loans from China was more successful.
Trump under 200 EV has been my pretty constant prediction for the last couple of months.
Off to work shortly. It's not much fun at present, though not so bad as up the road in Nottingham.
And the Foxes 1 point off top in the PL is always nice to see. 🙂 ⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️
I know which I think is more likely.
Trump has alienated, to a greater or lesser extent, just about every ally the US has, with the exception of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
It seems likely that the vast majority of Registered Voters will vote so if the numbers have truly gone up as much as is suggested then 160 million + votes does seem to be likely.
And there is ZERO evidence Harris would do anything to "take on Putin" either. All the Russia stuff is guff.
* Aware technically AFC Wimbledon and Wimbledon FC are distinct.
Despite being confident I haven't bet this year, my one bet this election is with HYUFD. On size of ECV victory.
Trump does not deserve a second term. Biden does not deserve a first. Biden is very, very lucky to be up against Trump. Against any other Republican, he barely wins 200 EC votes.
I expect him to be President by this time tomorrow.
I do not expect him to serve a full term.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november
1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it.
2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate.
3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.
https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/
In terms of independents Biden is currently winning those although in the current polarization it’s hard to believe there’s really any true independent voters out there.
Of the Remainers the biggest contribution was Blair then Brown reneging on the Lisbon Treaty referendum. That set in motion the train of events leading to Brexit.
Corbyn did sod all in the Referendum campaign despite being leader of the party that contained by far the largest number of Remain supporters. Had Starmer been leader then, Remain would probably have won.
The thing I'm worried about is, if it's close, that rejected "naked ballots" in Pennsylvania will give the presidency to the rightful loser (Trump).
Of course, it's also true that if the incumbent PM hadn't gone for Leave then we probably would've stayed in.
However, I do think the Lisbon Treaty reneging was critical because it massively undermined trust, and made it so a straightforward treaty rejection was impossible.
1. He's been utterly craven in the face of authoritarian leaders, as in general.
2. Betrayed US allies the Kurds to Erdogan who had done so much of the ground fighting against IS.
3. Failed to ensure that Saudi Arabia paid a price for the brutal murder of a journalist.
4. Ceded influence in the region to Russia.
5. Further eroded Palestinian trust in the US as an honest broker by moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
6. Tore up the deal with Iran solely because it was an Obama achievement.
I'm no fan of US foreign policy over the decades, far from it, but there's no basis to say that he made things at all better.
Note
*) The quadrilateral is also employed by Trump when seated, but probably rather than being part of the delivery it's just a nerves thing - just watch him pat handrails to see how nervous he is - but mostly he gets it under control. With the handrails he's probably repeating a phrase to himself, as advised in his "guru" Norman Vincent Peale's book.
Telegraph blog
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/30/texas-election-night/
The vast majority of the votes in Texas will be cast before Election Day. In 2016, 73% of votes were cast early. This year, that share could be higher. Most counties will report their early votes in one big batch, within about an hour of when the polls close...
Polls close at 7pm Central time (except for a few counties an hour later), which is 1pm our time, I think.
You have done some cherry-picking in the article regarding the Westminster seat tally (the Westminsterr Welsh seats are to be reduced dramatically next time). However, here are some cherries I picked
"The most unpopular measure was the closure of supermarket aisles selling goods deemed "non-essential". Just 30% of people said they supported the decision made by the Welsh Government to close supermarket aisles selling these items."
Or,
"People were also asked how much they like or dislike the political leaders. The First Minister, Mark Drakeford saw his rating out of 10 drop from 5.4 to 4.9."
Not at those prices.