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The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market – politicalbetting.com

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    DavidL said:

    Does anyone believe that deaths projection?

    No
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    edited October 2020
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Closing schools again would be a disaster.
    Saw some data that showed the transmission rates in education settings, having a lockdown and not closing schools and unis is like using a condom with holes in both ends.

    From a pure epidemiological POV it is a no brainer.
    Which is why lockdown as a concept doesn't work. We need to keep schools and supermarkets open, those two things together plus healthcare and other basic services add up to an R of over 1 already. There is no combination of things we can keep open that includes schools that doesn't have an R over 1. So we need a different way of doing this.

    We're using a broad measure of stopping some forms of interaction to reduce the overall R, it's an untargeted method which causes a lot of secondary damage. It also doesn't work because stopping interaction in public just drives the same interaction into front rooms which are impossible to police.

    There is no form of lockdown that will make any kind of difference in this country, not without closing schools and that is an unacceptable cost and needs to be avoided even if it means more deaths than would otherwise happen.

    The only way to resolve this is targeted measures to stop people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. There is no other way to do it, none. Everything else is going to fail and cost the nation more than just money.
    I don't think that's necessarily true: in Sweden schools were kept open (albeit universities and older kids went on-line), while there were a reasonable number of other restrictions.

    And I think it would have been sensible to do something similar in the UK - kept Universities on-line until January, and bring schools back from youngest to oldest. Doing it all in one go meant that you didn't go from R of 1 to 1.2, but from 1 to 3.
    Sweden isn't exactly an example that should be held up as worth following, with our population density and social nature their death rate would be more than double what it is IMO.
    Sure: but my point is that incrementalism (or iteration)is almost always the best approach (whether in business or politics). Do something small, see what the effect is, and decide whether to do more or less of it.

    Combining people returing from summer holidays abroad (importing cases), the days turning colder (and therefore people spending more time inside), and schools and universities returning all at once was a recipe for a soaring R.

    Add to this that the summer was wasted in building out efficient tracking or testing. If the government had stockpiled 100 million rapid tests, we could really have done a great job of getting on top of outbreaks.

    We're now faced with a really horrible set of choices, none of which are good.

    - We can follow the Toby Young school of thought, which will almost certainly result in a massive spike of deaths as hospitals are overloaded, followed by a de facto lockdown as people are too scared to go out

    - We can maintain the current restrictions, and accept that cases will continue rising (albeit I would expect the pace to start slowing now)

    - We can lockdown...

    All the options are horrible, and all involve trade offs. There is no perfect outcome, because there are different winners and losers and people will be sore as hell, irrespective.

    My personal option is (2), because I think we're staring into the rear view mirror, and I think case numbers will start coming down sooner rather than later. But I admit this is not without its risks: what if hospitals do end up being stretched beyond capacity?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    Enjoy supporting the Facists.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Why thursday?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    Furlough extended.

    That is good
    How the Holy Fuck do we pay for this?
    Shagging tax.
    I thought he said he couldn’t afford CS already?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    This is literally a news conference of lies. Those graphs are all bullshit, the models are all bullshit and Boris is too stupid to question the arse covering scientists.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.

    Support bubbles still allowed

    Yes. Stay at home unless you don't stay at home. Thats the only way to keep everyone safe, by letting them go out in the same way they have been during this period of exponential growth
    It is no different to the rules in Germany now and about the same even as those in France
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    This is delaying Strictly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Better in the Spring.
    How many hostages to fortune are needed?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    Furlough extended.

    That is good
    How the Holy Fuck do we pay for this?
    Shagging tax.
    OOh great I get a tax rebate ;-)
  • nichomar said:

    Why thursday?

    Legislation has to pass the HOC
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    wonder how much the extended furlough reduction % will be this time. Be complete confusion for the next week and then another capitulation no doubt.
  • Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.

    Support bubbles still allowed

    Gyms?
    Why would a new non-national national lockdown not lockdown mean the gyms need to close? We need to stop people from passing on the pox - they can't spread it in a Gym or tesco but can in a Pub or Superdrug.

    Haven't you been keeping up?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    So when are we going to get these fucking tests you massive fat c***. It's all talk.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    Furlough extended.

    That is good
    How the Holy Fuck do we pay for this?
    Fire up the printing press once again. What could go wrong?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    What's the difference between a polling station and a car park? Or a postbox for that matter.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited October 2020
    I've just realised that Boris has an almost identical accent to Vivian Stanshall, the posho drunk from the Bonzo Dog Doo Dah Band.

    Here he is at 3am with Mike Oldfield wandering around a stately home (Viv, I mean)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmRUJGRwkj0
  • MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    The Texas Supreme Court already allowed it before people voted. So yes absolutely.

    Court cases before people vote not after it.
  • malcolmg said:

    wonder how much the extended furlough reduction % will be this time. Be complete confusion for the next week and then another capitulation no doubt.

    It will be 80% otherwise no point in announcing it
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    Is there any serious increased risk of personation?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096
    nichomar said:

    Why thursday?

    It was going to be Wednesday, but the ERG objected and sent their ace negotiators in to revisit the deal
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited October 2020
    Boris has failed in the primary responsibility of govt. This was foreseen and avoidable.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    The problem, though, is that it is combined with Texas having far too few polling stations, and people being forced to wait for hours on election day.
    Very true.

    Slightly on / off topic, I had a chat with a lawyer friend in DC who is very well plugged into Republican thinking. Apparently what the Republicans are scared off is the Democrats are going to try to do is turn up "undiscovered" bundles of postal votes post-election day that they will claim have been somewhat overlooked, and continue to do so until they get the result wanted. It is what the Republicans are convinced happened in 2018 in CA when several House seats were sold Republican on the night and then turned Blue once extra postal votes came in. However, they don't trust Roberts enough to side with them if any cases get to the SC, hence why the nomination of Barrett was rushed through.
  • Labour is going to be seeing double digit leads soon, I believe Mori shows personal approval some 30+ points ahead of Johnson.

    Captain Hindsight, the one attack they had - has now been shattered by the work of this Government.

    We had months to prepare - and we managed to repeat our March performance. The usual suspects will pretend this is not a UK issue - but we have handled this by far the worst in Europe and that is reflected in our number of deaths.

    We're an island, we had a unique opportunity to protect our country and yet we're still being beaten by Germany, who have 9 borders. Disaster.
  • MaxPB said:

    This is literally a news conference of lies. Those graphs are all bullshit, the models are all bullshit and Boris is too stupid to question the arse covering scientists.

    I said earlier but I thought the graphics did not convince me but others have far more knowledge than I have
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Artist said:

    Dread to think of the cost of another month of full furlough.

    About £10 Billion per month I believe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    That was a case study of a poor PowerPoint presentation.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.

    Support bubbles still allowed

    Gyms?
    Why would a new non-national national lockdown not lockdown mean the gyms need to close? We need to stop people from passing on the pox - they can't spread it in a Gym or tesco but can in a Pub or Superdrug.

    Haven't you been keeping up?
    It seems to me from the research I have seen restaurants and pubs waaaay down the list of places people get infected

    University on the other hand............
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Floater said:

    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    Furlough extended.

    That is good
    How the Holy Fuck do we pay for this?
    Shagging tax.
    OOh great I get a tax rebate ;-)
    How? Did you manage a reverse orgasm last time?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    LadyG said:

    I've just realised that Boris has an almost identical accent to Vivian Stanshall, the posho drunk from the Bonzo Dog Doo Dah Band.

    Here he is at 3am with Mike Oldfield wandering around a stately home (Viv, I mean)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmRUJGRwkj0

    Sir Henry at Rawlinson End?
  • And some will pretend I am happy about this lockdown. Let me assure you I am not, this is going to have devastating impacts on my mental health and the health of others. This was not inevitable - but it has been since September and I said so. Johnson is entirely to blame for this and I will never vote Tory in my life as a result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Jonathan said:

    Boris has failed in the primary responsibility of govt. This was foreseen and avoidable.

    Well yes. That’s why most of us were hoping the Tories would elect Hunt.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    TOPPING said:

    No One Cares Betting Post

    Chisora is now in to 5.8, which is being hit, on bf but I'm not cashing out.

    Thanks Topping, I got on yesterday
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    Is there any serious increased risk of personation?
    How hard is it to extend the bounds of "the scrutiny" of the polling station to the car park? Drive through voting sounds like an excellent idea to me.

    Perhaps we should try it in the UK.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    What's the difference between a polling station and a car park? Or a postbox for that matter.
    It's how disabled people have voted in Texas for a while. So it is a perfectly well understood and secure method of voting.

    MrEd is just flailing.
  • Now I am going to go and speak to my friends and family and wish them all the very best, I promised I would reduce my posting and I will stand by that. Wish you all the best.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    dr_spyn said:

    LadyG said:

    I've just realised that Boris has an almost identical accent to Vivian Stanshall, the posho drunk from the Bonzo Dog Doo Dah Band.

    Here he is at 3am with Mike Oldfield wandering around a stately home (Viv, I mean)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmRUJGRwkj0

    Sir Henry at Rawlinson End?
    Precisely so!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Alistair said:

    This is delaying Strictly.

    No wonder @MaxPB is getting so cross.
  • Floater said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.

    Support bubbles still allowed

    Gyms?
    Why would a new non-national national lockdown not lockdown mean the gyms need to close? We need to stop people from passing on the pox - they can't spread it in a Gym or tesco but can in a Pub or Superdrug.

    Haven't you been keeping up?
    It seems to me from the research I have seen restaurants and pubs waaaay down the list of places people get infected

    University on the other hand............
    Have got wife/kids in 3 local schools. All of which have had to send students / staff home with the pox.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684

    malcolmg said:

    wonder how much the extended furlough reduction % will be this time. Be complete confusion for the next week and then another capitulation no doubt.

    It will be 80% otherwise no point in announcing it
    they had already said it was going down to 67%
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris has failed in the primary responsibility of govt. This was foreseen and avoidable.

    Well yes. That’s why most of us were hoping the Tories would elect Hunt.
    We need a Norway debate. I’m serious. The longer this fool stays in office the more at risk we are.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    The Texas Supreme Court already allowed it before people voted. So yes absolutely.

    Court cases before people vote not after it.
    I know that re the TX SC. I didn't say the votes should be disqualified. What I was pointing out was that even the author recognised that Harris was pushing the boundaries very far.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Of the states I am tracking, North Carolina is currently winning the % of RV who have already voted.

    Below are the % of RV turnout for the top few, and the votes remaining to be cast for them to reach 2016 RV turnout % levels:

    NC 59.45% 2,268,764.28 (90.49%)
    FL 58.97% 4,268,874.21 (89.32%)
    TX 57.03% 4,252,097.05 (82.11%)
    GA 55.42% 2,196,670.27 (86.79%)
    AZ 53.79% 1,466,563.52 (88.04%)
    WI 51.71% 1,455,736.45 (92.33%)
    NV 50.18% 729,479.35 (87.16%)

    (...%) = % RV turnout in 2016 using US Census Bureau numbers
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    And some will pretend I am happy about this lockdown. Let me assure you I am not, this is going to have devastating impacts on my mental health and the health of others. This was not inevitable - but it has been since September and I said so. Johnson is entirely to blame for this and I will never vote Tory in my life as a result.

    In fairness, Horse, I don’t think you were ever that likely to.

    But it’s driving me, the classic soft slightly right of centre swing voter hard towards Labour right now.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 103
    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    Furlough extended.

    That is good
    How the Holy Fuck do we pay for this?
    Not by sacrificing thousands of people for a global financial problem that can be solved by creative economics.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Boris's delivery was utterly woeful. Luckily for him this time he doesn't have a Sturgeon statement immediately after him to highlight how terrible his Covid delivery is.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    Is there any serious increased risk of personation?
    I don't know the checks in Harris TBH. But it has always struck me that polling security in the US was maybe less lax than here (but that is probably a gross generalisation).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    That was a case study of a poor PowerPoint presentation.

    Convinced Steve Baker who subjected the scientists to detailed and critical questioning though...

    I love the fact that they are trying to scare the South West, in particular, with the idea that the numbers in hospital are going to surpass the March/April peak. This is the South West where all we heard was how empty the hospitals were.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.

    Support bubbles still allowed

    Gyms?
    Why would a new non-national national lockdown not lockdown mean the gyms need to close? We need to stop people from passing on the pox - they can't spread it in a Gym or tesco but can in a Pub or Superdrug.

    Haven't you been keeping up?
    It seems to me from the research I have seen restaurants and pubs waaaay down the list of places people get infected

    University on the other hand............
    Have got wife/kids in 3 local schools. All of which have had to send students / staff home with the pox.
    Try 1000 infections................. not 1 or 2
  • And some will pretend I am happy about this lockdown. Let me assure you I am not, this is going to have devastating impacts on my mental health and the health of others. This was not inevitable - but it has been since September and I said so. Johnson is entirely to blame for this and I will never vote Tory in my life as a result.

    Because you were going to vote Tory otherwise before today?

    Be serious not party political.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris has failed in the primary responsibility of govt. This was foreseen and avoidable.

    Well yes. That’s why most of us were hoping the Tories would elect Hunt.
    We need a Norway debate. I’m serious. The longer this fool stays in office the more at risk we are.
    At the very least a Leo Amery and Arthur Greenwood.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    UK government and scientists have not covered themselves with glory, but I will defend them on the basis that these decisions are fucking awful.

    If you lockdown you destroy mental health and the economy, if you don't, you get a rampant virus and many dead.

    The idea a brisk 2 week Starmer circuit breaker would have fixed this is nuts. No other country has done that, successfully.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    MaxPB said:

    So when are we going to get these fucking tests you massive fat c***. It's all talk.

    UK tests per million 492,175 more than France, Germany, the USA, Spain, Italy, India and Brazil and Russia

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    And some will pretend I am happy about this lockdown. Let me assure you I am not, this is going to have devastating impacts on my mental health and the health of others. This was not inevitable - but it has been since September and I said so. Johnson is entirely to blame for this and I will never vote Tory in my life as a result.

    Because you were going to vote Tory otherwise before today?

    Be serious not party political.
    LOL dream on
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    wonder how much the extended furlough reduction % will be this time. Be complete confusion for the next week and then another capitulation no doubt.

    It will be 80% otherwise no point in announcing it
    they had already said it was going down to 67%
    That was not furlough, it was the furlough replacement starting tomorrow which has now reverted to the original 80% furlough
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    And some will pretend I am happy about this lockdown. Let me assure you I am not, this is going to have devastating impacts on my mental health and the health of others. This was not inevitable - but it has been since September and I said so. Johnson is entirely to blame for this and I will never vote Tory in my life as a result.

    'Shall I put you down as a maybe?'

    Lets be honest. Polls show people don't blame the government for the rise in the virus.

    However, Boris has just lost his right flank. Those who will blame the govt for the economic fallout.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    What's the difference between a polling station and a car park? Or a postbox for that matter.
    It's how disabled people have voted in Texas for a while. So it is a perfectly well understood and secure method of voting.

    MrEd is just flailing.
    And by pure coincidence, the Republicans are only asking for the practice to be thrown out in Democrat voting areas.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Someone needs to ask "what if this doesn't work?"
  • Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    What's the difference between a polling station and a car park? Or a postbox for that matter.
    It's how disabled people have voted in Texas for a while. So it is a perfectly well understood and secure method of voting.

    MrEd is just flailing.
    And the Texas Supreme Court had the opportunity to review this BEFORE people voted. They allowed this vote to happen.

    To get an injunction before people vote is one thing, to throw the votes out without redress is literally evil and inexcusable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    Labour is going to be seeing double digit leads soon, I believe Mori shows personal approval some 30+ points ahead of Johnson.

    Captain Hindsight, the one attack they had - has now been shattered by the work of this Government.

    We had months to prepare - and we managed to repeat our March performance. The usual suspects will pretend this is not a UK issue - but we have handled this by far the worst in Europe and that is reflected in our number of deaths.

    We're an island, we had a unique opportunity to protect our country and yet we're still being beaten by Germany, who have 9 borders. Disaster.

    Captain Foresight by the looks of it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    LadyG said:

    UK government and scientists have not covered themselves with glory, but I will defend them on the basis that these decisions are fucking awful.

    If you lockdown you destroy mental health and the economy, if you don't, you get a rampant virus and many dead.

    The idea a brisk 2 week Starmer circuit breaker would have fixed this is nuts. No other country has done that, successfully.

    We would be in a far better place. Boris has willingly taken us to the abyss. We won’t make progress until he goes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris has failed in the primary responsibility of govt. This was foreseen and avoidable.

    Well yes. That’s why most of us were hoping the Tories would elect Hunt.
    We need a Norway debate. I’m serious. The longer this fool stays in office the more at risk we are.
    "Speak for the regions!"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    dr_spyn said:

    LadyG said:

    I've just realised that Boris has an almost identical accent to Vivian Stanshall, the posho drunk from the Bonzo Dog Doo Dah Band.

    Here he is at 3am with Mike Oldfield wandering around a stately home (Viv, I mean)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmRUJGRwkj0

    Sir Henry at Rawlinson End?
    Yes, life imitating art. Boris is Sir Henry!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Boris Johnson has said three times by my count that schools will stay open.

    That’s conclusive.

    I give it seven days before they shut.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    The problem, though, is that it is combined with Texas having far too few polling stations, and people being forced to wait for hours on election day.
    Very true.

    Slightly on / off topic, I had a chat with a lawyer friend in DC who is very well plugged into Republican thinking. Apparently what the Republicans are scared off is the Democrats are going to try to do is turn up "undiscovered" bundles of postal votes post-election day that they will claim have been somewhat overlooked, and continue to do so until they get the result wanted. It is what the Republicans are convinced happened in 2018 in CA when several House seats were sold Republican on the night and then turned Blue once extra postal votes came in. However, they don't trust Roberts enough to side with them if any cases get to the SC, hence why the nomination of Barrett was rushed through.
    I was wracking my brain as to why one would legitimately seek to limit the time for receipt of duly stamped postal ballots, and that was the only reason I could come up with. Still, 3-5 days seems a quite reasonable limit after election day to set. Same day does not.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651
    In the gloom of his present situation Jezza would be forgiven for having an ironic smile as the printing presses splurge out countless more billions. His magic money tree has become a Conservative fantastical forest.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Closing schools again would be a disaster.
    Saw some data that showed the transmission rates in education settings, having a lockdown and not closing schools and unis is like using a condom with holes in both ends.

    From a pure epidemiological POV it is a no brainer.
    Which is why lockdown as a concept doesn't work. We need to keep schools and supermarkets open, those two things together plus healthcare and other basic services add up to an R of over 1 already. There is no combination of things we can keep open that includes schools that doesn't have an R over 1. So we need a different way of doing this.

    We're using a broad measure of stopping some forms of interaction to reduce the overall R, it's an untargeted method which causes a lot of secondary damage. It also doesn't work because stopping interaction in public just drives the same interaction into front rooms which are impossible to police.

    There is no form of lockdown that will make any kind of difference in this country, not without closing schools and that is an unacceptable cost and needs to be avoided even if it means more deaths than would otherwise happen.

    The only way to resolve this is targeted measures to stop people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. There is no other way to do it, none. Everything else is going to fail and cost the nation more than just money.
    I don't think that's necessarily true: in Sweden schools were kept open (albeit universities and older kids went on-line), while there were a reasonable number of other restrictions.

    And I think it would have been sensible to do something similar in the UK - kept Universities on-line until January, and bring schools back from youngest to oldest. Doing it all in one go meant that you didn't go from R of 1 to 1.2, but from 1 to 3.
    Sweden isn't exactly an example that should be held up as worth following, with our population density and social nature their death rate would be more than double what it is IMO.
    Sure: but my point is that incrementalism (or iteration)is almost always the best approach (whether in business or politics). Do something small, see what the effect is, and decide whether to do more or less of it.

    Combining people returing from summer holidays abroad (importing cases), the days turning colder (and therefore people spending more time inside), and schools and universities returning all at once was a recipe for a soaring R.

    Add to this that the summer was wasted in building out efficient tracking or testing. If the government had stockpiled 100 million rapid tests, we could really have done a great job of getting on top of outbreaks.

    We're now faced with a really horrible set of choices, none of which are good.

    - We can follow the Toby Young school of thought, which will almost certainly result in a massive spike of deaths as hospitals are overloaded, followed by a de facto lockdown as people are too scared to go out

    - We can maintain the current restrictions, and accept that cases will continue rising (albeit I would expect the pace to start slowing now)

    - We can lockdown...

    All the options are horrible, and all involve trade offs. There is no perfect outcome, because there are different winners and losers and people will be sore as hell, irrespective.

    My personal option is (2), because I think we're staring into the rear view mirror, and I think case numbers will start coming down sooner rather than later. But I admit this is not without its risks: what if hospitals do end up being stretched beyond capacity?
    We need to stop thinking of this as a trade off between saving lives or saving the economy. That's a false choice. We can have both with good testing and isolation measures and we don't need a lockdown to implement them. Any isolation system that doesn't have daily door knocks at random times, GPS tracking or government quarantine facilities is going to fail, people are too irresponsible and have proved they can't be trusted to isolate when they have the virus. That the problem we need to solve, it has a hugely negative effect on the R, we've been building a model of different isolation rates based on studies done on the subject and an average of 5 days spent being infectious before being isolated. If we isolate 60% of people properly the R falls below 1, if we get to 100% it falls to around 0.8 even with that 5 day infectious period.

    We can use the same shit testing system we have which waits for people to come to it and have an R significantly below 1 if we make people isolate properly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    ydoethur said:

    Boris Johnson has said three times by my count that schools will stay open.

    That’s conclusive.

    I give it seven days before they shut.

    Because Starmer/media will call for them to be shut? Hmm, I doubt it. These people have kids, they don't want them missing school.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    So when are we going to get these fucking tests you massive fat c***. It's all talk.

    UK tests per million 492,175 more than France, Germany, the USA, Spain, Italy, India and Brazil and Russia

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What's that got to do with universally available 15 minute rapid tests?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    I wonder if they'll resume regular press conferences after this?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    What's the difference between a polling station and a car park? Or a postbox for that matter.
    It's how disabled people have voted in Texas for a while. So it is a perfectly well understood and secure method of voting.

    MrEd is just flailing.
    Come on @Alistair, if this was a heavily Republican county, we would have plenty of people on here calling about the GOP not playing by the rules.

    The US has an woefully inadequate electoral system and terrible rules - and both sides play the game.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited October 2020
    He said something about something starting in a few days, but it wasn't super specific, so I'm unsure if it was referring to a pilot program or something.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    LadyG said:

    UK government and scientists have not covered themselves with glory, but I will defend them on the basis that these decisions are fucking awful.

    If you lockdown you destroy mental health and the economy, if you don't, you get a rampant virus and many dead.

    The idea a brisk 2 week Starmer circuit breaker would have fixed this is nuts. No other country has done that, successfully.

    Do you think it would have been better to go into lockdown on 13 October, when the scientists requested it, yes or no?
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.

    Support bubbles still allowed

    Gyms?
    Why would a new non-national national lockdown not lockdown mean the gyms need to close? We need to stop people from passing on the pox - they can't spread it in a Gym or tesco but can in a Pub or Superdrug.

    Haven't you been keeping up?
    It seems to me from the research I have seen restaurants and pubs waaaay down the list of places people get infected

    University on the other hand............
    Have got wife/kids in 3 local schools. All of which have had to send students / staff home with the pox.
    Try 1000 infections................. not 1 or 2
    I know - my point is that whilst education is important it is a massive spreader conduit. Just wait until all the students come home for Christmas...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris Johnson has said three times by my count that schools will stay open.

    That’s conclusive.

    I give it seven days before they shut.

    Because Starmer/media will call for them to be shut? Hmm, I doubt it. These people have kids, they don't want them missing school.
    No, because Boris Johnson always does what he says he won’t.

    Cf national lockdown, border in the Irish Sea, calling an election, sundry wedding vows...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Mr Ed’s posts today re: voter suppression don’t really surprise me. Through a veneer of respectability and politeness, this poster has been luxuriating in the prospect of stopping people voting for many weeks now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2020
    No mention of bans on outgoing or incoming travel. If you take that announcement as the rules, Christmas trips away for a spot of skiing or warmer climates are still on.

    Again Boris has said just stick with it, Christmas will be ok, by Spring things will be looking up...despite all the charts showing a shit show all the way through.

    You have to be honest. There isn't any easy solutions, nor are any quick. Supressing the virus is something we have to do constantly until we get a vaccine, which best case will be a year before everybody has got their shot.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris Johnson has said three times by my count that schools will stay open.

    That’s conclusive.

    I give it seven days before they shut.

    Because Starmer/media will call for them to be shut? Hmm, I doubt it. These people have kids, they don't want them missing school.
    No, because Boris Johnson always does what he says he won’t.

    Cf national lockdown, border in the Irish Sea, calling an election, sundry wedding vows...
    FSM?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Johnson is talking as if the 3 tier regime has been in place for months, not a couple of weeks.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    LadyG said:

    UK government and scientists have not covered themselves with glory, but I will defend them on the basis that these decisions are fucking awful.

    If you lockdown you destroy mental health and the economy, if you don't, you get a rampant virus and many dead.

    The idea a brisk 2 week Starmer circuit breaker would have fixed this is nuts. No other country has done that, successfully.

    We would be in a far better place. Boris has willingly taken us to the abyss. We won’t make progress until he goes.
    Well Labour admitted their 2 week lockdown could well need to be extended and / or repeated

    Lets face it the world is in for a torrid time and if you look at news from around the world plenty of countries in the same or similar position
  • RobD said:

    I wonder if they'll resume regular press conferences after this?

    Allegra Stratton is urgently needed as no 10 comms is dreadful
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    No mention of bans on outgoing or incoming travel. If you take that announcement as the rules, Christmas trips away for a spot of skiing or warmer climates are still on.

    And none of these journalists will ask about it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Not watching this new form of tenth-rate seaside entertainment on a Saturday night.

    One observation - Parliament will vote on the measures on Wednesday. Can anyone envisage a scenario where the Government is defeated and what the consequences of that would be?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    RobD said:

    He said something about something starting in a few days, but it wasn't super specific, so I'm unsure if it was referring to a pilot program or something.
    Hes just shooting for the moon, is he not?
  • MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    What's the difference between a polling station and a car park? Or a postbox for that matter.
    It's how disabled people have voted in Texas for a while. So it is a perfectly well understood and secure method of voting.

    MrEd is just flailing.
    Come on @Alistair, if this was a heavily Republican county, we would have plenty of people on here calling about the GOP not playing by the rules.

    The US has an woefully inadequate electoral system and terrible rules - and both sides play the game.
    Any criticism of the system should have happened before people voted, when the case was filed with the Texas Supreme Court before it happened seeking an injunction.

    There is no excuse to throw out 100k votes after they have voted. None whatsoever.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    What odds an extension of Brexit transition?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    LadyG said:

    UK government and scientists have not covered themselves with glory, but I will defend them on the basis that these decisions are fucking awful.

    If you lockdown you destroy mental health and the economy, if you don't, you get a rampant virus and many dead.

    The idea a brisk 2 week Starmer circuit breaker would have fixed this is nuts. No other country has done that, successfully.

    We would be in a far better place. Boris has willingly taken us to the abyss. We won’t make progress until he goes.
    Well Labour admitted their 2 week lockdown could well need to be extended and / or repeated

    Lets face it the world is in for a torrid time and if you look at news from around the world plenty of countries in the same or similar position
    Yes, and the last thing we need is this demonstrably incompetent man in charge. We are at a significant disadvantage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris Johnson has said three times by my count that schools will stay open.

    That’s conclusive.

    I give it seven days before they shut.

    Because Starmer/media will call for them to be shut? Hmm, I doubt it. These people have kids, they don't want them missing school.
    No, because Boris Johnson always does what he says he won’t.

    Cf national lockdown, border in the Irish Sea, calling an election, sundry wedding vows...
    FSM?
    You’re right, I’d forgotten his u-turn on that last time.

    He’ll change his mind on those in a few days as well for Christmas. You watch.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    JACK_W said:

    In the gloom of his present situation Jezza would be forgiven for having an ironic smile as the printing presses splurge out countless more billions. His magic money tree has become a Conservative fantastical forest.

    Can you imagine the shite poured on Corbyn if he had taken the exact same economic route. The Tory right would be in meltdown.
    Lots of people are not happy with the expenditure - but a global pandemic is a bit of a different fish than Labours pans right?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited October 2020
    Professor Whitty says he is much more optimistic when he looks forward to the Spring
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    He said something about something starting in a few days, but it wasn't super specific, so I'm unsure if it was referring to a pilot program or something.
    Hes just shooting for the moon, is he not?
    No, I think it's been an aim for quite a while now. And I don't think he'd say something was starting in a few days if it wasn't. It'd be a more nebulous statement saying it was soon.
This discussion has been closed.