The PM better hurry up and get this news conference done by 7 10pm otherwise he will push back Strictly and that really will see his poll rating plunge
Saw some data that showed the transmission rates in education settings, having a lockdown and not closing schools and unis is like using a condom with holes in both ends.
From a pure epidemiological POV it is a no brainer.
Which is why lockdown as a concept doesn't work. We need to keep schools and supermarkets open, those two things together plus healthcare and other basic services add up to an R of over 1 already. There is no combination of things we can keep open that includes schools that doesn't have an R over 1. So we need a different way of doing this.
We're using a broad measure of stopping some forms of interaction to reduce the overall R, it's an untargeted method which causes a lot of secondary damage. It also doesn't work because stopping interaction in public just drives the same interaction into front rooms which are impossible to police.
There is no form of lockdown that will make any kind of difference in this country, not without closing schools and that is an unacceptable cost and needs to be avoided even if it means more deaths than would otherwise happen.
The only way to resolve this is targeted measures to stop people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. There is no other way to do it, none. Everything else is going to fail and cost the nation more than just money.
I don't think that's necessarily true: in Sweden schools were kept open (albeit universities and older kids went on-line), while there were a reasonable number of other restrictions.
And I think it would have been sensible to do something similar in the UK - kept Universities on-line until January, and bring schools back from youngest to oldest. Doing it all in one go meant that you didn't go from R of 1 to 1.2, but from 1 to 3.
Sweden isn't exactly an example that should be held up as worth following, with our population density and social nature their death rate would be more than double what it is IMO.
Once again: You need to forget population density and think about degree of urbanisation (which is actually higher in Sweden than the UK).
No you don't that's nonsense. Urbanisation isn't higher than in the UK.
The thing is the UK is so dense that we draw distinctions without a difference. Greater Manchester is a different city to Liverpool, towns in-between like Warrington are different too. But they are actually one contiguous urban area. There's no natural break between them like there is in other countries.
Agreed. We are going to have to find a way of living with this virus. Protect the old and infirm. Shield. Risk segmentation. Don’t close down schools and ruin businesses. Pathetic leadership by Boris and his clownocracy.
Had to switch from the BBC when yet another ignoramus explains that we didn’t train up enough icu staff over the summer (!!) and we are in this position because the NHS is so underfunded (highest ever level of spending but whatever). None of this wittering challenged or mocked of course.
Prof Gupta of Great Barrington Declaration fame, wasn't it?
The whole "close the schools" thing might carry more weight if its proponents suggested how they were going to make that teaching time back up. Are they talking about extending the term - in general I think not.
Had to switch from the BBC when yet another ignoramus explains that we didn’t train up enough icu staff over the summer (!!) and we are in this position because the NHS is so underfunded (highest ever level of spending but whatever). None of this wittering challenged or mocked of course.
Prof Gupta of Great Barrington Declaration fame, wasn't it?
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
Saw some data that showed the transmission rates in education settings, having a lockdown and not closing schools and unis is like using a condom with holes in both ends.
From a pure epidemiological POV it is a no brainer.
Which is why lockdown as a concept doesn't work. We need to keep schools and supermarkets open, those two things together plus healthcare and other basic services add up to an R of over 1 already. There is no combination of things we can keep open that includes schools that doesn't have an R over 1. So we need a different way of doing this.
We're using a broad measure of stopping some forms of interaction to reduce the overall R, it's an untargeted method which causes a lot of secondary damage. It also doesn't work because stopping interaction in public just drives the same interaction into front rooms which are impossible to police.
There is no form of lockdown that will make any kind of difference in this country, not without closing schools and that is an unacceptable cost and needs to be avoided even if it means more deaths than would otherwise happen.
The only way to resolve this is targeted measures to stop people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. There is no other way to do it, none. Everything else is going to fail and cost the nation more than just money.
I don't think that's necessarily true: in Sweden schools were kept open (albeit universities and older kids went on-line), while there were a reasonable number of other restrictions.
And I think it would have been sensible to do something similar in the UK - kept Universities on-line until January, and bring schools back from youngest to oldest. Doing it all in one go meant that you didn't go from R of 1 to 1.2, but from 1 to 3.
Sweden isn't exactly an example that should be held up as worth following, with our population density and social nature their death rate would be more than double what it is IMO.
The one aspect of Sweden's approach that should have been followed was the idea that no quick fix, no vaccine in a few months, so plan for 2 years and stick to it, no stop / start / relax when things look a bit better.
Which works there because the base R in Sweden is lower than it is here because it has a lower population density and a less social culture. Sweden is social distancing the nation.
Not been partying in Stockholm then.
I have, and Lund. It's weird.
Pls see my edited post!
I saw, cheers mate, we'll need to trade lockdown stories over a beer after work one day when we're both back in office.
Saw some data that showed the transmission rates in education settings, having a lockdown and not closing schools and unis is like using a condom with holes in both ends.
From a pure epidemiological POV it is a no brainer.
Which is why lockdown as a concept doesn't work. We need to keep schools and supermarkets open, those two things together plus healthcare and other basic services add up to an R of over 1 already. There is no combination of things we can keep open that includes schools that doesn't have an R over 1. So we need a different way of doing this.
We're using a broad measure of stopping some forms of interaction to reduce the overall R, it's an untargeted method which causes a lot of secondary damage. It also doesn't work because stopping interaction in public just drives the same interaction into front rooms which are impossible to police.
There is no form of lockdown that will make any kind of difference in this country, not without closing schools and that is an unacceptable cost and needs to be avoided even if it means more deaths than would otherwise happen.
The only way to resolve this is targeted measures to stop people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. There is no other way to do it, none. Everything else is going to fail and cost the nation more than just money.
I don't think that's necessarily true: in Sweden schools were kept open (albeit universities and older kids went on-line), while there were a reasonable number of other restrictions.
And I think it would have been sensible to do something similar in the UK - kept Universities on-line until January, and bring schools back from youngest to oldest. Doing it all in one go meant that you didn't go from R of 1 to 1.2, but from 1 to 3.
Sweden isn't exactly an example that should be held up as worth following, with our population density and social nature their death rate would be more than double what it is IMO.
Once again: You need to forget population density and think about degree of urbanisation (which is actually higher in Sweden than the UK).
No you don't that's nonsense. Urbanisation isn't higher than in the UK.
The thing is the UK is so dense that we draw distinctions without a difference. Greater Manchester is a different city to Liverpool, towns in-between like Warrington are different too. But they are actually one contiguous urban area. There's no natural break between them like there is in other countries.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
Didn't he even comment on one of the charts saying it was plateauing because of the new restrictions, but no significant evidence of a decrease.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
Saw some data that showed the transmission rates in education settings, having a lockdown and not closing schools and unis is like using a condom with holes in both ends.
From a pure epidemiological POV it is a no brainer.
Which is why lockdown as a concept doesn't work. We need to keep schools and supermarkets open, those two things together plus healthcare and other basic services add up to an R of over 1 already. There is no combination of things we can keep open that includes schools that doesn't have an R over 1. So we need a different way of doing this.
We're using a broad measure of stopping some forms of interaction to reduce the overall R, it's an untargeted method which causes a lot of secondary damage. It also doesn't work because stopping interaction in public just drives the same interaction into front rooms which are impossible to police.
There is no form of lockdown that will make any kind of difference in this country, not without closing schools and that is an unacceptable cost and needs to be avoided even if it means more deaths than would otherwise happen.
The only way to resolve this is targeted measures to stop people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. There is no other way to do it, none. Everything else is going to fail and cost the nation more than just money.
I don't think that's necessarily true: in Sweden schools were kept open (albeit universities and older kids went on-line), while there were a reasonable number of other restrictions.
And I think it would have been sensible to do something similar in the UK - kept Universities on-line until January, and bring schools back from youngest to oldest. Doing it all in one go meant that you didn't go from R of 1 to 1.2, but from 1 to 3.
Sweden isn't exactly an example that should be held up as worth following, with our population density and social nature their death rate would be more than double what it is IMO.
The one aspect of Sweden's approach that should have been followed was the idea that no quick fix, no vaccine in a few months, so plan for 2 years and stick to it, no stop / start / relax when things look a bit better.
Which works there because the base R in Sweden is lower than it is here because it has a lower population density and a less social culture. Sweden is social distancing the nation.
Not been partying in Stockholm then.
I have, and Lund. It's weird.
Pls see my edited post!
I saw, cheers mate, we'll need to trade lockdown stories over a beer after work one day when we're both back in office.
Had to switch from the BBC when yet another ignoramus explains that we didn’t train up enough icu staff over the summer (!!) and we are in this position because the NHS is so underfunded (highest ever level of spending but whatever). None of this wittering challenged or mocked of course.
Had to switch from the BBC when yet another ignoramus explains that we didn’t train up enough icu staff over the summer (!!) and we are in this position because the NHS is so underfunded (highest ever level of spending but whatever). None of this wittering challenged or mocked of course.
Prof Gupta of Great Barrington Declaration fame, wasn't it?
Think so. So partisan as to be useless.
And who thought we had herd immunity 6 months ago. No credibility...
Had to switch from the BBC when yet another ignoramus explains that we didn’t train up enough icu staff over the summer (!!) and we are in this position because the NHS is so underfunded (highest ever level of spending but whatever). None of this wittering challenged or mocked of course.
I think they're getting very slightly better, although the endless interviews with Neil Ferguson have me wondering. (Great - let's interview someone that has got it wrong)
There's the BBC and then there's the BBC news stuff. They're not the same, and we see wonderful things from the arty wing that justify almost any price - the recent production of 'A Suitable Boy' for example.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
Yeah, but it doesn't seem fast enough unfortunately.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
And that's supposed to be something not in the Tier system's favour?
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
None of them want to talk about what they assured us was the right way forward, just recently, isn't now working.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
I am not an expert but I am very uneasy about these slides as I do not see the armageddon predicted
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
None of them want to talk about what they assured us was the right way forward, just recently, isn't now working.
The Scientists always claimed it wouldn't work, so aren't interested in considering the possibility that it might.
It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
I am not an expert but I am very uneasy about these slides as I do not see the armageddon predicted
I accept I could be wrong
They're showing deaths reaching 2-4x the first wave peak by the end of the year if no action is taken. Not Armageddon but not good.
There isn't anything in those slides that wouldn't have been different two weeks ago. The idea that somehow they can have suddenly changed Johnson's mind in a week is ridiculous!
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
I am not an expert but I am very uneasy about these slides as I do not see the armageddon predicted
I accept I could be wrong
They're showing deaths reaching 2-4x the first wave peak by the end of the year if no action is taken. Not Armageddon but not good.
But the tiering is still being developed but I am not an expert on this
It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
The problem, though, is that it is combined with Texas having far too few polling stations, and people being forced to wait for hours on election day.
It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.
It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
I am not an expert but I am very uneasy about these slides as I do not see the armageddon predicted
I accept I could be wrong
They're showing deaths reaching 2-4x the first wave peak by the end of the year if no action is taken. Not Armageddon but not good.
But the tiering is still being developed but I am not an expert on this
There isn't anything in those slides that wouldn't have been different two weeks ago. The idea that somehow they can have suddenly changed Johnson's mind in a week is ridiculous!
Yeah, in fact in the last two weeks the data has become better and the trend is downwards, pretty well downwards too.
These charts don't do anything, as they all assume that the Tier system won't have any effect, even though the effect of the Tiers won't be yet seen in any of the figures.
I thought exactly the same
The R slide shows the number falling since the tier system came into operation
I am not an expert but I am very uneasy about these slides as I do not see the armageddon predicted
I accept I could be wrong
Likewise. I accept the need to act but I don’t believe these figures, just like I didn’t believe the chart which would have had infections at 200k a day by now.
There isn't anything in those slides that wouldn't have been different two weeks ago. The idea that somehow they can have suddenly changed Johnson's mind in a week is ridiculous!
But in the intervening time he implemented policies that were supposed to be effective at slowing it down. I think that is what has changed.
It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
The problem, though, is that it is combined with Texas having far too few polling stations, and people being forced to wait for hours on election day.
There isn't anything in those slides that wouldn't have been different two weeks ago. The idea that somehow they can have suddenly changed Johnson's mind in a week is ridiculous!
But in the intervening time he implemented policies that were supposed to be effective at slowing it down. I think that is what has changed.
The new policies were only introduced 2 weeks ago! They won't be showing in the figures yet, or to the extent that they are they are showing a slowing down.
With the exception of Liverpool nowhere has been in tier 3 for much more than a week!
Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.
Kept us waiting 3 hours, and it's literally a shitshow
Why do you not try to make constructive criticism
It's a badly prepared shitshow? That constructive enough?
Is that to do with the slides as there was no problem with the ones on Sky
No the slides was a BBC cockup. Its a shitshow because: 1. Its nearly 3 hours late starting 2. Its announcing a course that this PM not only slagged off repeatedly but hung round the neck of SKS and mocked him for it 3. Its a month too late
He couldn't have fucked this up harder if he'd tried.
It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.
It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
Plenty of non-facist scumbags have throw out votes or invented them by the literal ton. Chavez etc.
What this is, is People's Democratic Republic grade politics - state modifies the vote to one that it approves of.
It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.
It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.
Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.
Support bubbles still allowed
Yes. Stay at home unless you don't stay at home. Thats the only way to keep everyone safe, by letting them go out in the same way they have been during this period of exponential growth
Still mentioning the idea Christmas will happen is the height of irresponsibility. This year is a write-off.
These slides show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.
Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.
I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.
Boris confirms stay at home order from Thursday until start of December unless for work where unable to work from home or exercise or study and to shop for food and essentials, pubs, bars and restaurants to close unless for takeaways.
Still mentioning the idea Christmas will happen is the height of irresponsibility. This year is a write-off.
These slides show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.
Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.
I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.
Still mentioning the idea Christmas will happen is the height of irresponsibility. This year is a write-off.
These slides show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.
Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.
I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.
I am sorry to say my friends, I was right.
Christmas will still happen even if only rule of 6 limited
Comments
UK 82% urban
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1322609769795014657
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322603265322848256?s=19
There's the BBC and then there's the BBC news stuff. They're not the same, and we see wonderful things from the arty wing that justify almost any price - the recent production of 'A Suitable Boy' for example.
I accept I could be wrong
Get the PM on.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/germany
The UK is still comfortably the worst in Europe. 140,000
Chisora is now in to 5.8, which is being hit, on bf but I'm not cashing out.
It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
Could be read so many different ways...
My favourite - one of him Marshalls had his army turn out on parade for the voting on the him becoming Emperor.
The Marshall announced that anyone who voted "No" would be shot immediately. Then non-secret ballot voting started.....
https://twitter.com/MustweSuffer/status/1322544628344754176?s=19
With the exception of Liverpool nowhere has been in tier 3 for much more than a week!
Support bubbles still allowed
1. Its nearly 3 hours late starting
2. Its announcing a course that this PM not only slagged off repeatedly but hung round the neck of SKS and mocked him for it
3. Its a month too late
He couldn't have fucked this up harder if he'd tried.
What this is, is People's Democratic Republic grade politics - state modifies the vote to one that it approves of.
You happy with that?
These slides show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.
Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.
I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.
I am sorry to say my friends, I was right.