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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race – politicalbe

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Comments

  • isam said:

    "Mortgages, bills and kids don't pay for themselves... "

    Obviously, that's what the £2900 goes on. Times are hard, this is a nightmare we can barely have made up. I dont see the govt paying people 2/3rds pf their wages to stay at home as that insufferable really.
    Agreed, I think it is beyond what most people expected when the crisis started. I recall a pb discussion in March where universal basic income was being discussed before furlough was announced. I suggested an amount of £1500 per month, and off memory that was the highest anyone called for, most were in the £500-1000 range. Whilst furlough is of course different and more limited, and people were thinking about 3 months rather than a year, back then people thought government support of £1k per month would be generous.

    The govt financial support has on balance been fine, its generally been delivered seemingly late and grudgingly would be my main criticism.
  • tlg86 said:

    But the kids of the people in the scenario you describe aren't eligible for free school meals, are they?
    Maybe not now, but I expect this to roll out to all children eventually now we've established that feeding children is the responsibility of the government rather than their parents.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited October 2020

    On the 2016 comparisons, if we'd had 2020-style early/mail voting in 2016 so Hillary banked a lot of votes before the Comey letter dropped, do we reckon she'd still have lost?

    Yes, RCP's final average was not miles away from their late October averages, in Florida it moved from tied in late October to Trump +0.4% on eve of poll and North Carolina it moved from Clinton +3.2% in late October to Trump +1%. There was some movement to Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan from late October to polling day but Hillary still led the average in both states, Hillary actually increased her average lead in Wisconsin from late October to polling day.

    However Trump won Florida by 1.2% and NC by 3.7% so both also had a shy Trump vote, just less so than in the rustbelt
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,295
    isam said:

    "As a mother" at 16 and Grandmother at 37, surely she should be PM just because she has lived through the experiences of the underclass? Lived experience trumps thought and consideration in the new normal
    I didn't know that but it doesn't sound like she gave too much attention to education and the use of 'scum' doesn't show much imagination either so I wonder what her selection panel saw in her?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters
    This is missing the point. Since 2016 the pollsters have made changes - in particular to reweight to account for educational attainment. This is believed to been favourable in some states to the Trump vote by 3-4pts I think. Therefore if they reran their polls from 2016 it would dramatically reduce the Clinton advantage in key states, or even show Trump ahead. So if the Clinton2016 vs Biden 2020 numbers are similar, then in fact Biden may be doing 3-4 pts better than Clinton was in 2016.

    It doesn't matter if they are "missing" the supposed shy Trump voters (who they presumably don't believe exist to the extent that it causes inaccuracy in the polls). However, if you believe they do exist, then you need to believe such voters are 3-4% greater than in 2016 to overcome the other polling methodology changes that have been put in place.

  • Yorkcity said:

    I agree in the circumstances the government in my opinion has got this about right.
    Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease

    I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.

    Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty

    Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    I look forward to the referendum where we vote to leave Covid-19.

    Remember the ERG rarely published their research, when they did, it was often without evidence or highly partisan.
    It can't be worse than the current policies.
  • MaxPB said:

    It can't be worse than the current policies.
    You wanna bet?

    Plus that's what the ERG said about leaving the EU.
  • Foxy said:

    Do you have any polling evidence for that, or is that just from a survey of your true blue household?
    How on earth do you know how my family vote, even I do not and it may surprise you but politics is not normally on my families radar

    However, I would ask why you think this debacle has not damaged Drakeford
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, RCP's final average was close to their late October averages, only real change was Florida which moved from tied in late October to Trump +0.4% on eve of poll and North Carolina which moved from Clinton +3.2% in late October to Trump +1%.

    However Trump won Florida by 1.2% and NC by 3.7% so both also had a shy Trump vote, just less so than in the rustbelt
    You are just speculating. You have no actual evidence for a "shy Trump" vote, beyond that the polls got it wrong last time, and the Trafalgar guy got some things right and claimed it was down to shy Trumpers. The pollsters themselves believe it was because they got the weighting of key demographics wrong. Something they have now corrected.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    HYUFD said:

    1) Little in terms of shy Trump voters
    2) There were plenty of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls in 2016, all bar Trafalgar was wrong, there were still 12 polls of Wisconsin alone in October and November 2016, every single one was wrong and had Hillary ahead
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1320172303984934915?s=20
    3) I doubt that made much real difference, 1 was more important
    Trump was a largely unknown quantity in 2016 (and still lost the popular vote by 3 million). He is a known and extremely unpopular quantity in 2020. The Dems are fully prepared in the EC critical states and on current polling will be ahead by c7% in the popular vote.

    The electoral fundamentals are not showing any sign that Trump is going to win. To the contrary the large t/o numbers and the reported demographics of those voting suggest a pretty substantial "blue wave".

    On the other hand, the determination of so many to suggest that Trump iswinning/can win suggests a) fear b) GOP partizanship c) misunderstanding of the numbers.

    If we give any credence to any polling anyway then Biden is in with a solid vote and EC majority and the GOP will also likely lose the Senate.

    BUT the risk TSE is pointing out is that the system can be/is being subverted and the confusion will allow Trump to claim an illegitimate victory, based on huge numbers of legimate votes being ignored and wholesale voter suppression and various other forms of electoral corruption.

    However these rumours also suit the Dems, since it will motivate the already highly motivated anti-Trump vote to come out across the board to make absolutely sure that the result is indisputible.

    I think (and yeah, sure, hope) that evidence is pretty plain that Trump and the GOP are headed for a once in a generation shellacking and even cheating on an industrial scale will not be able to hide a very heavy defeat for the Republicans and especially Trump. So, although there is a real risk of confusion as the interference is repaired, it seems to be a 9 in 10 chance that Biden is elected President in 10 days.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314
    It's said all the time, but we are sure that the US poll methodologies have changed, right?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Foxy said:

    Do you have any polling evidence for that, or is that just from a survey of your true blue household?
    As you say I guess it is the blue household.
    I think all four governments of the UK are struggling with the pandemic.
    From my perspective they are doing their best.And in the main fair minded people who put politics to one side give them some slack.
  • Not much news coming out of Brexit negotiations?

    I assume that's a good sign...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease

    I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.

    Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty

    Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
    Because currently Covid is a temporary blip that everyone across the world is subject to so all currencies are equally impacted.

    Now is it better to pay 80% for a one off year to keep the economy ready for next year when we have a vaccine or pay 30% for multiple years (possibly decades) if we let Covid decimate the economy.
  • You have consistently said the same about Nicola Sturgeon, Drakeford must be relieved to hear your analysis.
    You clearly did not read my post this week when I was effusive about Sturgeon and apart from Independence which I do not agree with I think her balance between health and her desire not to damage business is admirable
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    Drakeford has replaced him
    Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.

    Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.

  • RobD said:

    It's said all the time, but we are sure that the US poll methodologies have changed, right?

    Yes, the reputable ones have shown how and why they've changed their methodologies (particularly for state polls).

    They've also been tested in 2017/18/19 in various elections, like the House, Senate, and assorted other elections like gubernatorial ones.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,436
    edited October 2020

    You clearly did not read my post this week when I was effusive about Sturgeon and apart from Independence which I do not agree with I think her balance between health and her desire not to damage business is admirable
    I'm talking about the period from April to September.

    It was like listening to rime of the ancient mariner.
  • Not much news coming out of Brexit negotiations?

    I assume that's a good sign...

    That's my assumption, fingers crossed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819

    Gosh, it is hard work.

    Voters turn out in an election when they have been given a reason to vote.

    That could be because they have seen an inspiring politician (but this is Wales and they are all pretty crap).

    Or it could be because someone has royally pissed them off
    Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.

    They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    Cicero said:

    Trump was a largely unknown quantity in 2016 (and still lost the popular vote by 3 million). He is a known and extremely unpopular quantity in 2020. The Dems are fully prepared in the EC critical states and on current polling will be ahead by c7% in the popular vote.

    The electoral fundamentals are not showing any sign that Trump is going to win. To the contrary the large t/o numbers and the reported demographics of those voting suggest a pretty substantial "blue wave".

    On the other hand, the determination of so many to suggest that Trump iswinning/can win suggests a) fear b) GOP partizanship c) misunderstanding of the numbers.

    If we give any credence to any polling anyway then Biden is in with a solid vote and EC majority and the GOP will also likely lose the Senate.

    BUT the risk TSE is pointing out is that the system can be/is being subverted and the confusion will allow Trump to claim an illegitimate victory, based on huge numbers of legimate votes being ignored and wholesale voter suppression and various other forms of electoral corruption.

    However these rumours also suit the Dems, since it will motivate the already highly motivated anti-Trump vote to come out across the board to make absolutely sure that the result is indisputible.

    I think (and yeah, sure, hope) that evidence is pretty plain that Trump and the GOP are headed for a once in a generation shellacking and even cheating on an industrial scale will not be able to hide a very heavy defeat for the Republicans and especially Trump. So, although there is a real risk of confusion as the interference is repaired, it seems to be a 9 in 10 chance that Biden is elected President in 10 days.
    If the GOP were heading for a 'once in a generation shellacking' then Biden should be looking to win on an LBJ v Goldwater scale in 1964 or a Nixon v McGovern scale in 1972, in 1964 LBJ won 61% of the popular vote and 486 EC votes and in 1972 Nixon won 60.7% of the popular vote and 520 EC votes. Or Biden should at least be looking to match the 58.8% Reagan got in 1984 even if a little short of the 525 EC votes he got that year.

    Yet the latest 538 average has Biden on 51.9% and the latest RCP average has Biden only on 50.8%, with no major third party candidate this year where are the missing voters given Trump is currently only on 42.9% with 538 and 42.7% with RCP?

    I would suggest they are shy Trumps
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    isam said:
    They all tend to think the same.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    edited October 2020
    isam said:
    Stolen from Michael Porters Competitive Advantage of Nations - but I don't see what that actually has to do with pubs to any real extent. Local competition means available skilled labour and an incentive to innovate.

    In the IT sector I usually work in the community is actually very good at both the skilling up of resources and providing incentives for companies to innovate worldwide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589

    Yes, the reputable ones have shown how and why they've changed their methodologies (particularly for state polls).

    They've also been tested in 2017/18/19 in various elections, like the House, Senate, and assorted other elections like gubernatorial ones.
    Trump was not on the ballot in 2017/18 /19, there was no shy GOP vote in 2018 or 2014 and no shy Romney vote in 2012, only a shy Trump vote in 2016
  • HYUFD said:

    Taken pre Drakeford destroying the Welsh economy and banning sale of non essential goods
    How are your predictions of Scottish voters punishing Sturgeon for X, Y and Z going?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314

    Yes, the reputable ones have shown how and why they've changed their methodologies (particularly for state polls).

    They've also been tested in 2017/18/19 in various elections, like the House, Senate, and assorted other elections like gubernatorial ones.
    Thanks, that's reassuring.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    edited October 2020

    Covid created this crisis and most governments are struggling to protect incomes but also fight the disease

    I just do not see how it is possible even to pay 80% of wages until next March.

    Of course the public sector continue to receive their pay and benefits alongside pensioners who at present are to be awarded a 2.5% increase next April, while the private sector and large numbers of its employees pay a huge penalty

    Everyone should be asking just how that is fair and of course how any future government is able to afford the public sector and pensions is the 'elephant in the room'
    I get my state pension starting January
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    HYUFD said:

    If the GOP were heading for a 'once in a generation shellacking' then Biden should be looking to win on an LBJ v Goldwater scale in 1964 or a Nixon v McGovern scale in 1972, in 1964 LBJ won 61% of the popular vote and 486 EC votes and in 1972 Nixon won 60.7% of the popular vote and 520 EC votes. Or Biden should at least be looking to match the 58.8% Reagan got in 1984 even if a little short of the 525 EC votes he got that year.

    Yet the latest 538 average has Biden on 51.9% and the latest RCP average has Biden only on 50.8%, with no major third party candidate this year where are the missing voters given Trump is currently only on 42.9% with 538 and 42.7% with RCP?

    I would suggest they are shy Trumps
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
    Isn´t it just as likely, given the dissent in the GOP, the Lincoln project etc, that these are rock ribbed Republicnas who wont vote Trump?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    How on earth do you know how my family vote, even I do not and it may surprise you but politics is not normally on my families radar

    However, I would ask why you think this debacle has not damaged Drakeford
    Paragraph 1. Because you have told us.

    Paragraph 2. Not a good look for Drakeford, but soon forgotten, possibly after the next catastrophe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    MaxPB said:

    Whatever the government is doing isn't working so maybe a political campaign for new or different policies is what we need?
    The problem with the Toby Young of the world is that they draw their conclusions then try to rearrange facts to suit.

    If they simply argued that lots of deaths* were the price of freedom, then I might have a little respect**.

    *obviously other peoples deaths rather than their own.

    ** though I would appreciate a bit of acceptance that other people want the freedom to work and shop safely by them keeping clear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589

    How are your predictions of Scottish voters punishing Sturgeon for X, Y and Z going?
    Sturgeon of course has now followed Boris in only using a tier system not a full national lockdown again like Drakeford in Wales, though we shall see what the central belt does next year once the effects of the restrictions on its hospitality sector are felt
  • Drakeford isn't the greatest political operative, and this fiasco has taken him down at the knees. In the grand scheme of things it will likely as not disappear into the ether.The reality is those who are incandescent with rage are those who were incandescent with rage over the fire break anyway. The Tesco error smacks of incompetence rather than spite.

    Johnson's error with Rashford, I would hazard cuts much, much deeper. The British sense of fair play has been compromised, and not just in England. It is a horror story for Johnson and more importantly the Conservative Party, it reminds me of the Labour Government's 75p pension rise 15 or so years ago. It looks awful and is difficult to shake off in a hurry.

    I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up

    As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess

    I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    Worth waiting to see what he is going to say on it, he has surprised on the upside a few times lately.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sturgeon of course has now followed Boris in only using a tier system not a full national lockdown again like Drakeford in Wales, though we shall see what the central belt does next year once the effects of the restrictions on its hospitality sector are felt
    Definitely need to get Trafalgar involved in Scotch polling. Perhaps Scotland In Union could use some of their mysteriously abundant funds to tempt them over?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,295
    eek said:

    That's an insult to a Manchester United centre half - an Elgin City under 7s centre half would be a better comparison.
    I get the impression that his MPs view him as the ridiculous buffoon the rest of us do but with a very sinister and dangerous hit-man behind him. What else explains their simpering obsequiousness
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819

    How on earth do you know how my family vote, even I do not and it may surprise you but politics is not normally on my families radar

    However, I would ask why you think this debacle has not damaged Drakeford
    Just asking for some evidence. From the polling that I have seen, other politicians in Wales are even less popular.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316

    Of course but a hard border in Ireland is very difficult for politicians in the US to ignore.
    I don't doubt it, and I think no deal would be very problematic, but the histrionics about being all alone and wailing all the time about it tends to overdo the personality element as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Yorkcity said:

    As you say I guess it is the blue household.
    I think all four governments of the UK are struggling with the pandemic.
    From my perspective they are doing their best.And in the main fair minded people who put politics to one side give them some slack.
    Not all are struggling with popularity though. Scottish one gets ever more popular as the alternives are shown to be extremely dire
  • I'm talking about the period from April to September.

    It was like listening to rime of the ancient mariner.
    I strongly disagree with her over independence and that will not change

    However, as I do accept she has done well over covid so far
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    Foxy said:

    Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.

    They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
    I think that is largely true, and Labour in Wales were punished in 2019, both for Corbyn and Drakeford. If Johnson disappoints, the Conservatives in Wales won't benefit in the Sennedd election. Conversely if Labour are seen as a more competent opposition in Westminster a little may rub off on Labour in Wales despite their moderately dreary performance in government here.
  • malcolmg said:

    I get my state pension starting January
    Quite a moment Malc
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    HYUFD said:

    Sturgeon of course has now followed Boris in only using a tier system not a full national lockdown again like Drakeford in Wales, though we shall see what the central belt does next year once the effects of the restrictions on its hospitality sector are felt
    Avoid answering the question posted and spout more guff
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978

    Robert spoke to the guy and wrote a dissertation on the call. He tried to give a balanced view but still came to the conclusion that the guy at best someone who did not adhere to the standards terms of reference used by legitimate pollsters. Reading between the lines I assume he concluded the guy was more sinister than that (my interpretation).

    Luntz is a Trump hack. Asking Linz for a balanced view on Election 2020 is like asking Nigel Farage for a balanced view on Brexit. Even if he wanted to, he couldn't.
    Luntz is a Republican hack, of very long standing, rather than a Trump one. (I don’t think he will be voting for Trump.)
    But otherwise, agreed.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Foxy said:

    Yeah, but you have been saying that they have been pissed off for years.

    They also need to have someone to vote for. Negative voting is not part of the system. Who are they going to vote for instead?
    Sigh. There are parties other than Tory or Labour, two corrupt cheeks of the same bulging arse.

    As I have pointed out Drakeford has a highly marginal seat against a populist maverick opponent who is busy making hay while the sun shines.

    McEvoy: " it's not about toasters, books, it's about keeping people on board with what's going to be a long drawn out winter, to protect our NHS. Push people too far, and they rebel. It's called reactive abuse. We live in Wales. Know your people. Poverty don't shop on the Internet."

    There's the mistake in pitiful glory.

    There it is -- KNOW YOUR PEOPLE. POVERTY DON"T SHOP ON THE INTERNET.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,015

    Quite a moment Malc
    May be worth deferring for a bit, 5.4% interest added.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up

    As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess

    I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
    Your man Sunak doesn't come out of this well either. He needs to learn from this error and smarten his game up too, if he wants to see the highest office.
  • Foxy said:

    Just asking for some evidence. From the polling that I have seen, other politicians in Wales are even less popular.
    And that is the problem for the Senedd

    Virtually nobody is known, not even Drakeford until now, but that has changed quite dramatically in the last few days and I expect it will play into next May's election
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009

    May be worth deferring for a bit, 5.4% interest added.
    I did look at it but decided it was hardly worth it overall. As still working it will mean I get hammered for tax though, but upside is I will save about 500 a month in NI. Will probably stick the equivalent into pension to get tax back.
    Though not quite the issue lots of people losing their jobs are having at present.
  • Your man Sunak doesn't come out of this well either. He needs to learn from this error and smarten his game up too, if he wants to see the highest office.
    I am not patronising when I say I recognise that as well

    I hope both Boris and Rishi put this right and quickly because it is the correct thing to do
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited October 2020

    I think that is largely true, and Labour in Wales were punished in 2019, both for Corbyn and Drakeford. If Johnson disappoints, the Conservatives in Wales won't benefit in the Sennedd election. Conversely if Labour are seen as a more competent opposition in Westminster a little may rub off on Labour in Wales despite their moderately dreary performance in government here.
    I don't think that is true, Drakeford leads the Welsh Government not Boris and is a far less impressive FM than Carwyn Jones or Rhodri Morgan or even Alun Michael were and Paul Davies is the Welsh Tory leader not Boris.

    Welsh voters will give their verdict on Drakeford next year, they will not give their verdict on Boris again until 2024 and as Wales voted Leave anyway Brexit is less of a factor than in Scotland
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    I hope for his sake if Biden does win he does last a full term, as otherwise I suspect history, from the more progressive element, will conclude victory was inevitable and he was just lucky to be the one in place.

    And as everyone seems to think he would only be a single term president, it would be hilarious if he decided to run again, even though he'd be 82.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    I agree 100% and to be honest have said on several occasions that Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford have damaged Boris significantly and hopefully the back benchers will wake up that his time is up

    As I said at the time, I would have voted with Labour had I been a conservative mp and of course 5 did with 22 abstaining but unless Boris comes to his senses I really hope the 22 who abstained vote for, along with many more, in the second vote coming up from Labour after recess

    I admire Marcus not just because I am a lifelong Man Utd supporter but his crusade is right and has my full backing
    Voting against "Rashford" will haunt the Party as well as Johnson.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Trump was not on the ballot in 2017/18 /19, there was no shy GOP vote in 2018 or 2014 and no shy Romney vote in 2012, only a shy Trump vote in 2016
    But he did personally endorse people like Roy Moore. Who lost.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    malcolmg said:

    Trump is definitely US Corbyn whilst Biden is Bozo, it is the best of a bad lot choice for the electorate.
    A fun idea, as personality wise it certainly doesn't work, but outcome wise it could.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    kle4 said:

    A fun idea, as personality wise it certainly doesn't work, but outcome wise it could.
    It is the opposite way round but the choice is similar.
  • Voting against "Rashford" will haunt the Party as well as Johnson.
    And that is why either Boris u turns (again) or his mps must do the right thing
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Trafalgar of course being the outlier that was right in being the only pollster to have Trump ahead in PA and Michigan in 2016, they have Biden ahead in PA now and more narrowly in Wisconsin and Trump narrowly ahead in Michigan so are still showing a small swing to Biden but not enough of a swing to win the EC which is plausible.

    Survey Monkey in another Texas poll has Trump up by 4%, if Biden wins a landslide he could win Texas but only in that scenario

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320158108929372160?s=20
    Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
  • Roger said:

    I get the impression that his MPs view him as the ridiculous buffoon the rest of us do but with a very sinister and dangerous hit-man behind him. What else explains their simpering obsequiousness
    The smarter MPs will have recognised that Boris was capable of being his own sinister and dangerous hitman long before Dom arrived from the planet Venus.

    Eddie Mair's "nasty piece of work" interview was back in 2013.
  • justin124 said:

    Polls coducted over a period as long as a month are unlikely to be meaningful.
    Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    Nigelb said:

    Biden really isn’t.
    He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn.
    Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
    That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Nigelb said:

    Biden really isn’t.
    He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn.
    Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
    Nigelb said:

    Biden really isn’t.
    He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn.
    Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
    I know he is not like Corbyn but he is ancient and not exactly who you would pick for such a demanding job. He will be very lucky to last the term with his faculties. Debatable whether he will be as bad as Bozo but we will see if there are skeletons in the cupboard to come out as well. US politics on both sides is as pork belly as the Tories in UK. It is themselves and chums first with country well down the pecking order.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    No it was the Opinium numbers from last night which contain the latest Welsh numbers after Drakeford's disastrous latest announcement

    UK Labour 40% Tories 38% LDs 6%

    England Labour 44% Tories 39% LDs 6%

    Scotland SNP 48% Tories 27% Labour 20% LDs 1%

    Wales Tories 40% Labour 29% Plaid 19% LDs 7%


    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    But those are subsamples!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819

    Sigh. There are parties other than Tory or Labour, two corrupt cheeks of the same bulging arse.

    As I have pointed out Drakeford has a highly marginal seat against a populist maverick opponent who is busy making hay while the sun shines.

    McEvoy: " it's not about toasters, books, it's about keeping people on board with what's going to be a long drawn out winter, to protect our NHS. Push people too far, and they rebel. It's called reactive abuse. We live in Wales. Know your people. Poverty don't shop on the Internet."

    There's the mistake in pitiful glory.

    There it is -- KNOW YOUR PEOPLE. POVERTY DON"T SHOP ON THE INTERNET.
    McEvoy ounds more likely to split the opposition vote than defeat Drakeford to me.

    Next years Welsh, Scottish and English local elections look interesting, but I suspect Welsh Labour will hang on. The opposition are simply too split.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    Rawnsley:

    During the Trump period, Mr Johnson has tried to lever influence with other leaders by presenting himself as the man who has the ear of, and can help to interpret, the White House wild man. “Boris Johnson sold himself as the Trump whisperer,” says Jonathan Powell, a diplomat in Washington before he became Tony Blair’s chief of staff. “Without Trump, what is the point of Johnson?” More existentially, the British may ask themselves where his policies have left this country other than looking alone in a dangerous world. Brexit has fractured the relationship with Europe, one pillar of the postwar foreign policy. Now it looks highly likely that the other pillar, a close relationship with the US, will be shuddering.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/johnson-dangerously-close-to-one-us-president-wht-if-biden-wins
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    edited October 2020
    justin124 said:

    But those are subsamples!
    justin124 said:

    But those are subsamples!
    justin124 said:

    But those are subsamples!
    HYFUD loves pointless subsamples that suit his opinion
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    kle4 said:

    That either of them, or their situations, share characteristics with the situation of the US candidates doesn't mean to say they are identical.
    Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all.
    Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    Pulpstar said:
    I look forward to HYUFD’s dive into the sub samples.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Nigelb said:

    Biden really isn’t.
    He has quite a talented team around him, and decades of political capital to draw on. He also gives a damn.
    Rather older than would be ideal, sure.
    Biden strikes me as a big picture kind of guy. Bit like Trump actually (That's where the similiarities end though), the difference is he'll surround himself with competent people instead of the Yes men Trump picks.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Pulpstar said:
    Interestingly that was biased towards Trump in 2016 . The fieldwork now includes two full days post the final debate , will be interesting to see what the other pollsters come out with nationally as many were showing leads of around 10 points when the IBDD had the gap at between 3 and 5 points .
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Nigelb said:

    Just not seeing the Johnson/Biden comparison at all.
    Other than that Biden is about to win an election, too.
    It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541
    IBD/TIPP now smelling the coffee.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    The Texas poll is interesting.
    They are a decent pollster - and still have Cornyn +8%.
  • Pulpstar said:
    'Scuse me whilst I go and cry over my betting strategy.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Biden’s closing message is bringing the country together whilst Trumps is tear it apart and sow more division . The Black Eyed Peas have re-mastered their superb song Where Is The Love with Biden talking in parts . It’s absolutely wonderful and inspiring.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:

    I look forward to HYUFD’s dive into the sub samples.
    It is all noise really, not much different to the poll averages nationally ie all their recent polls have had Biden in the range of 49-52% nationally.

    Plus Rasmussen was more accurate than IBID on the national popular vote in 2016 and their latest national poll is Biden 49% and Trump 46%
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Actually not true, there's been some polls over a similar timeframe that got the results spot on, it's all about getting a representative sample.
    Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Foxy said:



    McEvoy ounds more likely to split the opposition vote than defeat Drakeford to me.

    Next years Welsh, Scottish and English local elections look interesting, but I suspect Welsh Labour will hang on. The opposition are simply too split.

    I expect that too. Labour will probably hang on. My only point is that there is huge reservoir of people who don't vote. And if they did vote, even in small numbers, they would have a big effect. And that day will come.

    Also, though he may suffer the fate of independents, you can see McEvoy's real gift.

    "Poverty don't shop on the internet" is just a brilliant slogan -- it is a millstone to hang round Drakeford's neck.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    Alistair said:

    But he did personally endorse people like Roy Moore. Who lost.
    So what Obama endorsed Martha Coakley in Massachussetts in 2010 who lost, Obama was still re elected in 2012
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    edited October 2020
    justin124 said:

    But those are subsamples!
    I doubt even HYUFD thinks a vital part of his Unionist alliance, the LDs, are on 1%.

    OR DOES HE?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Hays County - first to pass 2016 turnout

    https://twitter.com/justincbzz/status/1320351112734609410
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    HYUFD said:

    The libertarian love for Sweden continues

    https://twitter.com/KateAndrs/status/1320333585212231684?s=20

    Hold that stampede to pay Sweden's taxes. And introduce their employment laws. Oh and sick pay...
    Continues for several pages...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    edited October 2020
    malcolmg said:

    It is fairly clear who could vote for Trump if sane so only choice is Biden, similarly who could vote for Corbyn, hence Bozo winning.
    I didn’t vote for either of them.
    If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Nigelb said:

    I didn’t vote for either of them.
    If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
    Nigelb said:

    I didn’t vote for either of them.
    If I lived in the US, I’d be phone banking for Biden.
    True, there is the draw a big penis on your ballot paper option
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I expect that too. Labour will probably hang on. My only point is that there is huge reservoir of people who don't vote. And if they did vote, even in small numbers, they would have a big effect. And that day will come.

    Also, though he may suffer the fate of independents, you can see McEvoy's real gift.

    "Poverty don't shop on the internet" is just a brilliant slogan -- it is a millstone to hang round Drakeford's neck.
    Turnout for Welsh Assembly elections is barely higher than for local elections. Most people are simply not interested.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I think the site is heading for meltdown taking longer to lo load and then losing internet conection
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589

    I doubt even HYUFD thinks a vital part of his Unionist alliance, the LDs, are on 1%.

    OR DOES HE?!
    In the Highlands, Orkney and Shetland and Edinburgh West of course they are
  • justin124 said:

    Nevertheless there has to be a serious possibility that the early sampling would now be out of date. Few would take notice of polls conducted over a 6 month period.
    But that's not a six month long poll.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,622
    So the question setter has rejected Palmerston as Liberal and MacDonald as Labour.

    Any more ideas?


    Meanwhile Click and Collect at Waitrose was a breeze. All sorted in the car park.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    edited October 2020
    Presumably, this Covid Research Group will be filled with eminent virologists, sociologists, mental health professionals, epidemiologists and the like. Who will bring a wide range of expert opinions and detailed peer reviewed research on how to deal with this dreadful disease?
    Or right wing blowhards with an agenda to push?
    I await with curiosity.
    Pity there isn't a betting market on it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,436
    edited October 2020
    I see Carlo Ancelotti is a lying piece of crap.

    Lock him up.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,997

    IBD/TIPP over the last 5 days

    25th October (Today):

    Biden 51.6% (+0.9%)
    Trump 44.4% (+0.1%)

    24th October (Yesterday):

    Biden 50.7% (+0.9%)
    Trump 44.3% (-0.9%)

    23rd October:

    Biden 49.8% (-0.2%)
    Trump 45.2% (+0.2%)

    22nd October:

    Biden 50% (+1.5%)
    Trump 45% (-1%)

    21st October:

    Biden 48.5%
    Trump 46%
This discussion has been closed.