I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
You are expecting a government led by Boris Johnson to have plans?
Remember the first plan is unlikely to be the actual scenario, best to wait for at least the first u-turn, perhaps the second.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
In the language of this crisis Christmas, being 9 weeks or so away, is a 'long term' issue. The government has no idea where it will be in mid November let alone 25 December.
The Scots are already softening up the people for a 'digital Christmas'. So England would be isolated if it went in the opposite direction.
I too would love to know the Christmas plan. I should think there are either none or several. In both of those cases the government will keep quiet for now about decisions. The prospect that there is only one plan at this stage which won't be changed is about zero.
The Welsh govt trying to bankrupt supermarkets? How the hell do you even determine what is “essential”?
Presumably the same rules as last time. If you are closing other shops, it is kind of unreasonable that supermarkets can carry on selling the same things. I doubt it will be much enforced. One thing is sure, supermarkets won't be bankrupted. They have done very well out of the epidemic. Other shops not so much.
It's not the same rules as last time though, is it? Last time the rules were defined by shop type. Once you were allowed to open you could sell whatever you want.
I accept i was being a bit hyperbolic about the financial health of supermarkets
The supermarkets were certainly under media and even police pressure to not sell non essentials in the first lockdown. I only went to a couple of superstores but they both had large non food sections closed.
Looking at my data again and I think the R is inching upwards after a pretty sustained drop, even in areas where it is at or below 1 it has started going up again.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
I fear -- very unfortunately -- the LibDems may increase their seats.
I had hoped we could continue with the successful eradication policy -- with only Kirsty left in her mouse-hole at Brecon & Radnorshire requiring rodenticide.
But, the implosion of all the UKIP-pers, Recklesses and BritNats must mean that there will be gains for all the rest, including the LibDems.
Perhaps not a revival, but I think a LibDem surge to 3 AMs may be possible. Sigh.
Looking at their votes and where they are falling, I’m not sure I agree.
In fact, I think they might score one again, but this time on the list in Mid Wales with Williams losing her seat.
Do you realise that 75% of Welsh Liberal Democrat voters have left the party over the last 15 years? That’s an incredible figure. To put it in context, that’s a steeper fall in vote share than Labour have suffered in Scotland.
I am not hugely surprised at the fall in Welsh LibDem vote. It has become a very patrician & English party in Wales. It is the party of the affluent incomers in rural Wales.
I am sure we know which party will get more than 50 per cent of the vote.
The Don't Vote party -- the single most popular party in every Welsh Assembly election. It is poor, disenfranchised, ignored, mainly English speaking & has a strong Welsh national identity.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
The Welsh govt trying to bankrupt supermarkets? How the hell do you even determine what is “essential”?
Tesco can handle it. Hopefully Filco and CK too!
No need to worry about Chris Kiley - he'll take this in his stride
A lady I worked with was Swansea business glitterati. I knew about Mr Kiley's marital issues before he did!
As for Filco, when I first moved to the Vale I wrote a check for shopping at Filco Supermarkets. I was asked to make the cheque payable to Philip Jones, proof the cashier said " that you can take it (money) with you". Philip Jones was the long deceased proprietor of Filco Foods.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
Rubbish.
"This isn't an argument." "Yes it is" "No it's not, it's just contradiction!!"
There are lots of cheapish fashion shops round by me run by young girls, who sell clothes to other young girls. The Welsh government would put them out of business.
The Welsh govt trying to bankrupt supermarkets? How the hell do you even determine what is “essential”?
Presumably the same rules as last time. If you are closing other shops, it is kind of unreasonable that supermarkets can carry on selling the same things. I doubt it will be much enforced. One thing is sure, supermarkets won't be bankrupted. They have done very well out of the epidemic. Other shops not so much.
It's not the same rules as last time though, is it? Last time the rules were defined by shop type. Once you were allowed to open you could sell whatever you want.
I accept i was being a bit hyperbolic about the financial health of supermarkets
The rules (the law) for the first lockdown were that you were only allowed to leave the house to purchase basic necessities. I think guidance was that shops should only open to sell these necessities, but not quite sure about that.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
My suggestion would be this, assuming the country is still in a critical situation. No parties and no work Christmas dos. But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
Just give everyone 4 days off from all restrictions from Santa.
4 days of freedom would be enough to double the caseload; think back to March pre-lockdown. Fine maybe if we go from (say) 5000 a day to 10000 a day. Not fine if we go from 40000 a day to 80000 a day. The latest ZOE/KCL estimate is 36000 a day.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
So what do you do when your jeans are in the wash? Or shouldn't I ask....
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
There are lots of cheapish fashion shops round by me run by young girls, who sell clothes to other young girls. The Welsh government would put them out of business.
What are the Welsh government doing to young girls?!
Some more esoteric US polling to consider this evening. The daily IBD/TIPP poll has Biden up 50-45 in a 4-corner race. There's a Rasmussen poll from North Carolina showing Trump ahead 48-47 which is unsurprising in extremis.
Good to see some less well-polled states having a run out and to start with the hyper-marginal swing states of Kansas and Oklahoma. Trump won Kansas by 21 last time but a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump leading 48-41 so that's a 7-point swing to the Democrats which if repeated nationally would be a massive Biden landslide.
I've commented here before Biden might be piling up "useless" votes in Red states and I suspect he will achieve swings in some of these states above the national figure. Off then to Oklahoma which Trump won by 36 last time - the lead now is 22 so that's another 7% swing which is interesting.
If you knew the 7% swing was uniform you'd back Biden all the way to a landslide but we know (or suspect) it isn't and relying on national numbers which might mask a disproportionate swing where it will do Biden no good and a less than optimal swing where he needs it lends a note of caution.
California is the East Ham of America - to be honest, that's where the similarity stops. No one is going to confuse Plaistow for Palm Springs or Manor Park for Malibu but in electoral terms it's solid for one team. Biden leads 58-32 which is a small swing of 2% to Donald Trump on 2016.
One or two Trump optimists thought they might flip Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016 but a Washington Post poll has Biden ahead by 11 so a 3% swing to the Democrat challenger.
Thus do we start to see the profile for this election which can be read in five parts:
1) Strong Democrat states - no swing or a small swing to the Republicans. 2) Weak Democrat states - small swings (2-4%) to Biden. 3) Marginal states - with a couple of exceptions, very small movements but probably enough in the weakest to flip them. 4) Weak Republican states - small swings to Biden to make him a challenger in places like Arizona, Iowa, Georgia and Ohio but perfectly possible Trump will hold all four or lose all four. 5) Strong Republican states - larger swings to Biden but nowhere near enough to challenge the Republicans.
Clinton failed because instead of pushing for votes where she needed them she piled them up where she didn't.
My map remains unchanged tonight.
You cannot really compare US Presidential elections to UK parliamentary elections as they vote by state ie equivalent to UK counties or regions at most, their parliamentary votes are for the House of Representatives and there as here it is inner city San Francisco, Detroit, LA, New York and Chicago where the Democrats get their biggest majorities just as Labour get their biggest majorities here in inner city London, Manchester and Liverpool.
Indeed in 2016 while Hillary won California comfortably overall don't forget Trump still won 24 mainly rural counties in the state
Looking at my data again and I think the R is inching upwards after a pretty sustained drop, even in areas where it is at or below 1 it has started going up again.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
Despite some of the claims i'm dubious that the problem is caused by people with positive test results refusing to self isolate. At the very least, the vast majority, even if they don't follow the strict letter of the rules (ie. no going out at all) are going to be generally careful about where they do go out.
The issue is the asymptomatic cases, who both aren't aware that they are even potentially infected, or possibly are but are supposed to be self isolating because of a "possible" contact.
And i think even all your solutions involving giving people very generous amounts of money to isolate after a positive test (which i think at the rate you were talking about - £1,000 a week would lead to a lot of "Corona parties" in the hope of getting infected) would not cover these people.
You can't bung someone £1,000 just for self isolating for being a possible case.
There are lots of cheapish fashion shops round by me run by young girls, who sell clothes to other young girls. The Welsh government would put them out of business.
What are the Welsh government doing to young girls?!
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The Don't Vote party -- the single most popular party in every Welsh Assembly election. It is poor, disenfranchised, ignored, mainly English speaking & has a strong Welsh national identity.
How do people in that category feel about the Welsh language? Would they like their children to be fluent in Welsh?
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
My suggestion would be this, assuming the country is still in a critical situation. No parties and no work Christmas dos. But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
Just give everyone 4 days off from all restrictions from Santa.
4 days of freedom would be enough to double the caseload; think back to March pre-lockdown. Fine maybe if we go from (say) 5000 a day to 10000 a day. Not fine if we go from 40000 a day to 80000 a day. The latest ZOE/KCL estimate is 36000 a day.
Exponential growth is brutal.
Not sure about that. Don't forget that at Christmas everything else will be shut down, including schools and offices etc So it's more a case that some of the benefits that might have otherwise accrued will be reduced. I don't see why it should generate a spike.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The serious point is it’ll not divert money from supermarkets in Wales to small retailers in Wales in three weeks time. It’ll just get more shopping online to less benefit for Wales.
There again I doubt anyone in Govt in Cardiff Bay has ever run a whelk stall in the commercial world.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
You could pick up the one in my profile pic from a charity shop in the East End of Glasgow for a couple of quid. If things get desperate I'll pop for it and post it to you.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
When I was 14 or so, a girl I knew went to USSR Moscow for a school trip. One of her school friends was asked on the street if she would sell a pair of her jeans, which she stupidly did. Later in the day the authorities visited the hotel and talked to her. They agreed to let her off with just handing over the money, but they scared the hell out of the poor girl. Crazy that either a school trip was being observed or possibly it was a deliberate sting by the secret police.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
My suggestion would be this, assuming the country is still in a critical situation. No parties and no work Christmas dos. But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
Just give everyone 4 days off from all restrictions from Santa.
4 days of freedom would be enough to double the caseload; think back to March pre-lockdown. Fine maybe if we go from (say) 5000 a day to 10000 a day. Not fine if we go from 40000 a day to 80000 a day. The latest ZOE/KCL estimate is 36000 a day.
Exponential growth is brutal.
Not sure about that. Don't forget that at Christmas everything else will be shut down, including schools and offices etc So it's more a case that some of the benefits that might have otherwise accrued will be reduced. I don't see why it should generate a spike.
Schools are a fair point, though set against that, a Christmas Truce could give a lot of social mixing. But my point was more that the risks would be a lot smaller if the baseline were a lot lower...
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The serious point is it’ll not divert money from supermarkets in Wales to small retailers in Wales in three weeks time. It’ll just get more shopping online to less benefit for Wales.
There again I doubt anyone in Govt in Cardiff Bay has ever run a whelk stall in the commercial world.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
You could pick up the one in my profile pic from a charity shop in the East End of Glasgow for a couple of quid. If things get desperate I'll pop for it and post it to you.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
You could pick up the one in my profile pic from a charity shop in the East End of Glasgow for a couple of quid. If things get desperate I'll pop for it and post it to you.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The serious point is it’ll not divert money from supermarkets in Wales to small retailers in Wales in three weeks time. It’ll just get more shopping online to less benefit for Wales.
There again I doubt anyone in Govt in Cardiff Bay has ever run a whelk stall in the commercial world.
I agree that is a valid point. Trying to use the argument that you might need a T-Shirt in the next two weeks is not an effective way of making it.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
As the PBer with the greatest fashion sense in history, I'm happy to choose and buy some clothing for you, I'll even post it out for you.
How about this? Should be a hit in Wales. AmIRight?
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
You could pick up the one in my profile pic from a charity shop in the East End of Glasgow for a couple of quid. If things get desperate I'll pop for it and post it to you.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The serious point is it’ll not divert money from supermarkets in Wales to small retailers in Wales in three weeks time. It’ll just get more shopping online to less benefit for Wales.
There again I doubt anyone in Govt in Cardiff Bay has ever run a whelk stall in the commercial world.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
My suggestion would be this, assuming the country is still in a critical situation. No parties and no work Christmas dos. But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
Just give everyone 4 days off from all restrictions from Santa.
4 days of freedom would be enough to double the caseload; think back to March pre-lockdown. Fine maybe if we go from (say) 5000 a day to 10000 a day. Not fine if we go from 40000 a day to 80000 a day. The latest ZOE/KCL estimate is 36000 a day.
Exponential growth is brutal.
You are assuming that people act as they did in March which is ridiculous. Public transport will be at 10% capacity, very few people going to offices. People will wash their hands more, wear face masks, the most vulnerable will limit their social contacts. Most contacts will be people they already have contact with. It wont do anything like double in 4 days of no restrictions at Xmas.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
You could pick up the one in my profile pic from a charity shop in the East End of Glasgow for a couple of quid. If things get desperate I'll pop for it and post it to you.
Is that Johnson or Yeltsin?
He's beginning to be known as Boris the Liberator around these parts.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
My suggestion would be this, assuming the country is still in a critical situation. No parties and no work Christmas dos. But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
Just give everyone 4 days off from all restrictions from Santa.
4 days of freedom would be enough to double the caseload; think back to March pre-lockdown. Fine maybe if we go from (say) 5000 a day to 10000 a day. Not fine if we go from 40000 a day to 80000 a day. The latest ZOE/KCL estimate is 36000 a day.
Exponential growth is brutal.
Not sure about that. Don't forget that at Christmas everything else will be shut down, including schools and offices etc So it's more a case that some of the benefits that might have otherwise accrued will be reduced. I don't see why it should generate a spike.
In Scotland, hospitalisation and ICU rates are nearly one half the April peak and rising rapidly. Bear in mind, April is typically a low pressure month on hospitals. We are now entering peak season when NHS hasn't been able to cope in previous normal years.
I don't know if these measures are effective. They absolutely should be applied if they are.
The Welsh govt trying to bankrupt supermarkets? How the hell do you even determine what is “essential”?
Tesco can handle it. Hopefully Filco and CK too!
No need to worry about Chris Kiley - he'll take this in his stride
A lady I worked with was Swansea business glitterati. I knew about Mr Kiley's marital issues before he did!
As for Filco, when I first moved to the Vale I wrote a check for shopping at Filco Supermarkets. I was asked to make the cheque payable to Philip Jones, proof the cashier said " that you can take it (money) with you". Philip Jones was the long deceased proprietor of Filco Foods.
Have dealt directly with Chris Kiley and Simon Jones. Both decent operators from a business perspective the likes of which are in decreasing supply these days...
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
As the PBer with the greatest fashion sense in history, I'm happy to choose and buy some clothing for you, I'll even post it out for you.
How about this? Should be a hit in Wales. AmIRight?
Gamest bloke I’ve seen in years was in a packed Cardiff pub about an hour and a half after Wales had thrashed Ireland in Cardiff, to win the Grand Slam in March 2019.
The locals were of course happy, glowing, and well refreshed, and tuning into the England Scotland match post the Wales game. Said bloke, resplendent in his England shirt, decided he’d give it large on the banter front to the Celts given, at that point, England were beating Scotland 31-3 ( or something close).
Of course Scotland proceeded on the most epic comeback in history and boy did this chap get it in the neck! ( good heartedly all round I might add).
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That shouldn't be a cause for celebration though; it just shows how powerful a grip the party system holds over Parliament.
I for one think it's unhealthy.
Exactly right. Anyone who is in principle against MPs rebelling against their party is in principle against representative democracy.
Parties have an important role to play to provide at least some coordination and direction, but the balance has tilted way too far in how much power they hold over their MPs. Even on minor matters when you'd think it really would not matter if someone strays out of line they treat like an epic betrayal, even if they remain consistent with something the party itself believed 5 minutes ago.
The problem is us, as ever.
If a government is defeated in any vote in the Commons - it is "the beginning of the end', "the government is losing it's grip" etc etc. So, strangely, the whipping gets tougher and tougher and the candidate selection favours the eat-your-feet tendency.
And we all vote for this. We get exactly what we voted for.
Regrettably, agreed. Doesn't even need to be defeated, any level of rebellion is big big news. We want simple goodies and baddies, and the parties try to make their members automatons.
Oddly enough, for all his many faults, Jeremy Corbyn is at least one you could never accuse of knuckling under.
The Welsh govt trying to bankrupt supermarkets? How the hell do you even determine what is “essential”?
Tesco can handle it. Hopefully Filco and CK too!
No need to worry about Chris Kiley - he'll take this in his stride
A lady I worked with was Swansea business glitterati. I knew about Mr Kiley's marital issues before he did!
As for Filco, when I first moved to the Vale I wrote a check for shopping at Filco Supermarkets. I was asked to make the cheque payable to Philip Jones, proof the cashier said " that you can take it (money) with you". Philip Jones was the long deceased proprietor of Filco Foods.
Have dealt directly with Chris Kiley and Simon Jones. Both decent operators from a business perspective the likes of which are in decreasing supply these days...
Kiley has done very, very well over the last twenty years, CK convenience stores popping up all around Swansea and urban Carmarthenshire.
Filco more or less consolidating. A store opened in Barry a couple of years ago closed quickly. Jones kept Sainsbury's out of Llantwit Major which saved the empire. They own most of the retail units in the town too.
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
That article may be interesting to you. It is also however complete bollocks written by somebody who doesn’t have a clue what she’s talking about.
To take a few obvious points:
1) Owain ap Gruffudd, defeated and captured at Bryn Derwin in 1255, was the brother of Llewelyn ap Gruffudd, not his uncle
2) Owain Glyn Dwr was descended from the princes of Powys, but was always styled Prince of Wales after his rebellion.
3) He certainly did aim for an independent country, as attested by charters extant in France and the Vatican.
4) The strongest prince was not declared ‘Prince of Wales.’ In fact, that title was only used by two Welshmen - Llywelyn ap Gruffudd from 1258 to 1277, and Owain Glyn Dwr from 1400 to 1413. This seems to be based on a confusion with the Anglo-Saxon Bretwalda system. Rather, the strongest Prince frequently exercised considerable influence over the other states. Examples, without too much thought, would include Hywel Dda, who codified Welsh Law, and Llewelyn Fawr, who created a single polity stretching from Cardigan to Anglesey through a series of client states. But Rhys ap Gruffudd (d.1197) was by far the most powerful lord in Wales and never even called Prince of his own country of Deheaubarth. He was always ‘Yr Arglywdd Rhys’ (Lord Rhys) or ‘Y Llew De’ (The Southern Lion).
5) That said there was, from 1059-1063, a single of King of Wales, Gruffudd ap Llewelyn. That was acknowledged and accepted. He was killed by Harold (later of Hastings) and Wales divided up to reduce the threat to England’s Western border.
6) Pembrokeshire has been an Anglo-Norman outpost since the early twelfth century. Indeed, the earls of Pembroke were crucial in the Norman conquest of Ireland. To suggest it is a bastion of Welsh identity is completely nonsensical.
A fairly bright fourteen year old doing Eduqas History would have known more than her. But then, it is Unherd. Intelligence not encouraged.
Well I didn't take it as gospel - the fourth point for one is one I was, for much of it, aware of. I don't think the general point about ancient historic boundaries and identity being more complicated than we like to think is lost, which was the principle point I was making.
The Don't Vote party -- the single most popular party in every Welsh Assembly election. It is poor, disenfranchised, ignored, mainly English speaking & has a strong Welsh national identity.
How do people in that category feel about the Welsh language? Would they like their children to be fluent in Welsh?
If you live on a large council estate in Penrhys or Gurnos or Ely, then you are more worried about drugs and criminality and decay -- as opposed to fluency in the Welsh or English language (or grants for the arts or saving the planet or types of carrier bag or the European ideal).
My point really is that a Welsh party could yet do to Labour what the SNP have done to SLAB.
There is a largely ignored, despised & disenfranchised group of Welsh voters (50 per cent in the Welsh Assembly elections) that are waiting for a party.
Of course, the Brexit Party began to nibble at that vote. (I don't blame them for voting TBP, it was the first time in decades that anyone had paid any attention to them).
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
As I explained to him, I'm more taken about the general point about historic boundaries being complex, and therefore so is identity, beyond that which we like to think about, than the specifics - that's why I said its title was provocative. I read a biography of Edward I a few months ago and just from that there were elements even I could spot some likely errors, but it was useful illustratively.
Looking at my data again and I think the R is inching upwards after a pretty sustained drop, even in areas where it is at or below 1 it has started going up again.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
Almost as though you know the experts should have been doing this years ago.
The Don't Vote party -- the single most popular party in every Welsh Assembly election. It is poor, disenfranchised, ignored, mainly English speaking & has a strong Welsh national identity.
How do people in that category feel about the Welsh language? Would they like their children to be fluent in Welsh?
If you live on a large council estate in Penrhys or Gurnos or Ely, then you are more worried about drugs and criminality and decay -- as opposed to fluency in the Welsh or English language (or grants for the arts or saving the planet or types of carrier bag or the European ideal).
My point really is that a Welsh party could yet do to Labour what the SNP have done to SLAB.
There is a largely ignored, despised & disenfranchised group of Welsh voters (50 per cent in the Welsh Assembly elections) that are waiting for a party.
Of course, the Brexit Party began to nibble at that vote. (I don't blame them for voting TBP, it was the first time in decades that anyone had paid any attention to them).
Do people living in Penrhys, Gurnos or Lansbury Park vote?
Prior to Covid, Boris Johnson and his Bexit policy was the answer for those people who made it out of those estates and into private home ownership. Who knows now?
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
As I explained to him, I'm more taken about the general point about historic boundaries being complex, and therefore so is identity, beyond that which we like to think about, than the specifics - that's why I said its title was provocative. I read a biography of Edward I a few months ago and just from that there were elements even I could spot some likely errors, but it was useful illustratively.
No problem.
We have all been suckered like that when the LibDems come calling. Even myself !
The article did caution that the writer was advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister (2010-2015), so my bullshit detector was on high alert. 😁
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
When I was 14 or so, a girl I knew went to USSR Moscow for a school trip. One of her school friends was asked on the street if she would sell a pair of her jeans, which she stupidly did. Later in the day the authorities visited the hotel and talked to her. They agreed to let her off with just handing over the money, but they scared the hell out of the poor girl. Crazy that either a school trip was being observed or possibly it was a deliberate sting by the secret police.
Sounds like a racket to me. Girl is approached, sells her jeans, then cops arrive and take the money back. The jean sellers and the cops being in cahoots from the get go.
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
As I explained to him, I'm more taken about the general point about historic boundaries being complex, and therefore so is identity, beyond that which we like to think about, than the specifics - that's why I said its title was provocative. I read a biography of Edward I a few months ago and just from that there were elements even I could spot some likely errors, but it was useful illustratively.
No problem.
We have all been suckered like that when the LibDems come calling. Even myself !
The article did caution that the writer was advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister (2010-2015), so my bullshit detector was on high alert. 😁
I certainly won't say I could spot all the errors, plenty looked plausible, but enough to know it was not by an expert!
Looking at my data again and I think the R is inching upwards after a pretty sustained drop, even in areas where it is at or below 1 it has started going up again.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
Despite some of the claims i'm dubious that the problem is caused by people with positive test results refusing to self isolate. At the very least, the vast majority, even if they don't follow the strict letter of the rules (ie. no going out at all) are going to be generally careful about where they do go out.
The issue is the asymptomatic cases, who both aren't aware that they are even potentially infected, or possibly are but are supposed to be self isolating because of a "possible" contact.
And i think even all your solutions involving giving people very generous amounts of money to isolate after a positive test (which i think at the rate you were talking about - £1,000 a week would lead to a lot of "Corona parties" in the hope of getting infected) would not cover these people.
You can't bung someone £1,000 just for self isolating for being a possible case.
Hence the model, there's a couple of studies which have looked into the effect of high levels of isolation on transmission so I'm sure we can get some numbers from there, but it's no surprise that countries with good isolation measures and tough border entry mechanisms are close to eradication while those that don't have either (UK, France and most of Europe) aren't.
From previously looking into it the average R of asymptomatic people is around 1.5 without NPIs. With NPIs it falls below 1. The problem is symptomatic people, they have a base R of around 4.5 and with ordinary NPIs (tier 1) that falls to around 1.7, and further NPIs can bring that to near 1 (where we are now).
My theory is based on rapid isolation, test, isolate, test, isolate until there aren't any cases left.
On the money side of things, maybe £1000 is too generous, I don't know, it just seems like a number that would stop people complaining about forced tracking, but it could be set a bit lower to discourage those things you describe. Ultimately the government has created a whole host of unscrutinised emergency powers, this seems like a better use of them than what we currently have.
If it is as I think, and other countries have shown, then putting in proper isolation measures for symptomatic positive tested people it brings the base R down from 4.5 to under 1 without NPIs and to basically zero with NPIs which means you can live with a bit of asymptomatic spread as it eventually burns itself out with NPIs and where you get an asymptomatic person infecting someone else who then becomes symptomatic you quickly find that person and isolate them.
What the incentive also does is encourage people to come forwards if they've been in contact with someone who has tested positive, in other countries this has been shown to be a key factor in short tracing times and very high response rates. In terms of stopping parties and such, don't forget that these people will be registered and surveillance will not be very difficult. Basically the idea is to create an effective 2 week police state situation for people who test positive, it's a bit shitty but it's two weeks.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
How do I know.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
Ah, so you only have one pair of jeans or trousers. Yes that is a problem.
The serious point is it’ll not divert money from supermarkets in Wales to small retailers in Wales in three weeks time. It’ll just get more shopping online to less benefit for Wales.
There again I doubt anyone in Govt in Cardiff Bay has ever run a whelk stall in the commercial world.
More likely a cockle stall!
Mudflats on the Gower best place for them!
I remember falling flat on my back in the Loughor estuary in a field class ...
Looking at my data again and I think the R is inching upwards after a pretty sustained drop, even in areas where it is at or below 1 it has started going up again.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
Almost as though you know the experts should have been doing this years ago.
They may have, but those models are locked up in the vaults of academia. Who knows, maybe between three chemistry, physics and maths graduates we'll crack it?
I've seen many Obama speeches (ok, clips of speeches), and I don't know that I've seen appear quite so frustrated very often, particularly at the start, where is natural fluid delivery seems almost interrupted by his own incredulity at events.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
When I was 14 or so, a girl I knew went to USSR Moscow for a school trip. One of her school friends was asked on the street if she would sell a pair of her jeans, which she stupidly did. Later in the day the authorities visited the hotel and talked to her. They agreed to let her off with just handing over the money, but they scared the hell out of the poor girl. Crazy that either a school trip was being observed or possibly it was a deliberate sting by the secret police.
A college friend of mine claimed that on a sixth-form trip to Moscow he (or a friend, it's a long time back) got held up at gunpoint in their hotel room for their jeans, and that the robber threw a large wad of ruble notes at them in "payment" as they left.
Democrats continue to maintain their lead over Republicans in pre-Election Day ballots cast in the battleground states of North Carolina and Florida, but that gap is narrowing as in-person early voting ramps up.
In North Carolina, the margin between Democrats and Republicans who have already cast their ballot has been cut in half since last Monday, according to the most recent party data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations.
The Don't Vote party -- the single most popular party in every Welsh Assembly election. It is poor, disenfranchised, ignored, mainly English speaking & has a strong Welsh national identity.
How do people in that category feel about the Welsh language? Would they like their children to be fluent in Welsh?
If you live on a large council estate in Penrhys or Gurnos or Ely, then you are more worried about drugs and criminality and decay -- as opposed to fluency in the Welsh or English language (or grants for the arts or saving the planet or types of carrier bag or the European ideal).
My point really is that a Welsh party could yet do to Labour what the SNP have done to SLAB.
There is a largely ignored, despised & disenfranchised group of Welsh voters (50 per cent in the Welsh Assembly elections) that are waiting for a party.
Of course, the Brexit Party began to nibble at that vote. (I don't blame them for voting TBP, it was the first time in decades that anyone had paid any attention to them).
Do people living in Penrhys, Gurnos or Lansbury Park vote?
Last Welsh Assembly election.
Don't Vote 55% Labour 17% Plaid Cymru 10% Conservatives 11% UKIP 6% Liberal Democrats 3.5% Abolish Assembly 2% Others .5%
There is an absolutely huge pool of disenchanted voters waiting for a Welsh party to believe in.
I've seen many Obama speeches (ok, clips of speeches), and I don't know that I've seen appear quite so frustrated very often, particularly at the start, where is natural fluid delivery seems almost interrupted by his own incredulity at events.
He's right about turning out. A blue wave needs bury Trump or he will bury America.
So let's hope plenty of young Bernie radicals who say they can't bring themselves to vote for centrist grandad see this video.
Last week I wondered whether this US election bottom of the ticket races might be driving voting, hence increasing turnout for the Presidential (which, given the nature of those bottom of the ticket races, would IMO be on balance bad news for Trump and good for Biden).
There is some evidence of this happening in Texas:
"University of Houston analysis of early voting data found competitive elections are a driving factor in Harris County turnout.
"Early voter turnout has been high in the West University, Montrose, Memorial, Bunker Hill areas and the energy corridor, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.
"“We’re seeing a spike in Katy where you’ve got a competitive House election (Texas House District 132) and we’re seeing spikes in the north part of the suburbs in Harris County, Kingwood and Atascocita where there’s a competitive race in Congressional District 2,” said Rottinghaus."
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
The border is 20 minutes from work.
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
As the PBer with the greatest fashion sense in history, I'm happy to choose and buy some clothing for you, I'll even post it out for you.
How about this? Should be a hit in Wales. AmIRight?
I once got an absolute bargain of an O2 branded Ben Sherman England shirt. The store (a UK chain) obviously didn't realise that East Kilbride is not in England.
It's Utah. I've not looked it up but I'd say it's odds on that they're both Mormons. Mormonism might be one of the more, um, special, religions out there but Mormons tend to just be plain nice.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
I've seen made or made myself some of those comments. That they may provoke vigorous disagreement doesn't make them intolerable and I don't see the advantage in labelling that disagreement in such a way.
And for me more importantly Biden is back to 50% in both head to head and 4 way split
FWIW my GOP-stalwart wife, after voting Johnson in 2016 finally plumped for Biden this time despite her loathing for Harris.
Good to hear from you, Charles. AND please give my regards to Mrs C!
Would respect her decision whichever way it went. And this year it was NOT easy for her and millions like her. She cast her vote, not just or even mostly for herself, but for her country - win, loose or draw.
God Bless America - E Pluribus Unum! And dude, methinks you are one lucky guy.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
In the language of this crisis Christmas, being 9 weeks or so away, is a 'long term' issue. The government has no idea where it will be in mid November let alone 25 December.
The Scots are already softening up the people for a 'digital Christmas'. So England would be isolated if it went in the opposite direction.
I too would love to know the Christmas plan. I should think there are either none or several. In both of those cases the government will keep quiet for now about decisions. The prospect that there is only one plan at this stage which won't be changed is about zero.
You say, "The government has no idea where it will be in mid November let alone 25 December."
In mid-November it will be in Diwali, another festival for which it has yet to announce any plans.
It is nice. I suspect the Democrat is only going through the motions for the Utah governorship, and the Republican can afford to be magnanimous.
Republican Cox is leading Democrat Peterson by wide margin, last poll on 538 says Cox 50%, Peterson 26, two others 9%.
Note that both Cox & Peterson are members of the Church formerly known as Mormon. May be neither here nor there, save that the Church establishment - as exemplified by Mitt Romney - is NOT enamored of Trumpsky & his man-bites-dog style of politics and "governance".
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
In the language of this crisis Christmas, being 9 weeks or so away, is a 'long term' issue. The government has no idea where it will be in mid November let alone 25 December.
The Scots are already softening up the people for a 'digital Christmas'. So England would be isolated if it went in the opposite direction.
I too would love to know the Christmas plan. I should think there are either none or several. In both of those cases the government will keep quiet for now about decisions. The prospect that there is only one plan at this stage which won't be changed is about zero.
You say, "The government has no idea where it will be in mid November let alone 25 December."
In mid-November it will be in Diwali, another festival for which it has yet to announce any plans.
Why not just move these feats & fests down the road to say late summer of 2021? Seek better conditions in the future, like the Tokyo Olympics and Queen's Birthday.
Comments
I can make a dash for it to free Hereford or Gloucester.
The Scots are already softening up the people for a 'digital Christmas'. So England would be isolated if it went in the opposite direction.
I too would love to know the Christmas plan. I should think there are either none or several. In both of those cases the government will keep quiet for now about decisions. The prospect that there is only one plan at this stage which won't be changed is about zero.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
I am sure we know which party will get more than 50 per cent of the vote.
The Don't Vote party -- the single most popular party in every Welsh Assembly election. It is poor, disenfranchised, ignored, mainly English speaking & has a strong Welsh national identity.
What if I slag my jeans? Am I supposed to sit inside bollock naked with the curtains closed till I make a break for a clothing shop in the early hours of Nov 9th?
As I said it’ll just drive sales online.
As for Filco, when I first moved to the Vale I wrote a check for shopping at Filco Supermarkets. I was asked to make the cheque payable to Philip Jones, proof the cashier said " that you can take it (money) with you". Philip Jones was the long deceased proprietor of Filco Foods.
"Yes it is"
"No it's not, it's just contradiction!!"
Exponential growth is brutal.
Indeed in 2016 while Hillary won California comfortably overall don't forget Trump still won 24 mainly rural counties in the state
The issue is the asymptomatic cases, who both aren't aware that they are even potentially infected, or possibly are but are supposed to be self isolating because of a "possible" contact.
And i think even all your solutions involving giving people very generous amounts of money to isolate after a positive test (which i think at the rate you were talking about - £1,000 a week would lead to a lot of "Corona parties" in the hope of getting infected) would not cover these people.
You can't bung someone £1,000 just for self isolating for being a possible case.
There again I doubt anyone in Govt in Cardiff Bay has ever run a whelk stall in the commercial world.
But my point was more that the risks would be a lot smaller if the baseline were a lot lower...
How about this? Should be a hit in Wales. AmIRight?
PA: Biden +6
FL: Biden +4
MI: Biden +7
WI: Biden +6
NC: Biden +2
AZ: Biden +2
They translate that into an overall figure of a 93% chance of winning the election for Biden.
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
I don't know if these measures are effective. They absolutely should be applied if they are.
The locals were of course happy, glowing, and well refreshed, and tuning into the England Scotland match post the Wales game. Said bloke, resplendent in his England shirt, decided he’d give it large on the banter front to the Celts given, at that point, England were beating Scotland 31-3 ( or something close).
Of course Scotland proceeded on the most epic comeback in history and boy did this chap get it in the neck! ( good heartedly all round I might add).
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1319274202650693632?s=19
Oddly enough, for all his many faults, Jeremy Corbyn is at least one you could never accuse of knuckling under.
Filco more or less consolidating. A store opened in Barry a couple of years ago closed quickly. Jones kept Sainsbury's out of Llantwit Major which saved the empire. They own most of the retail units in the town too.
My point really is that a Welsh party could yet do to Labour what the SNP have done to SLAB.
There is a largely ignored, despised & disenfranchised group of Welsh voters (50 per cent in the Welsh Assembly elections) that are waiting for a party.
Of course, the Brexit Party began to nibble at that vote. (I don't blame them for voting TBP, it was the first time in decades that anyone had paid any attention to them).
Have they ever been photographed together?
Prior to Covid, Boris Johnson and his Bexit policy was the answer for those people who made it out of those estates and into private home ownership. Who knows now?
We have all been suckered like that when the LibDems come calling. Even myself !
The article did caution that the writer was advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister (2010-2015), so my bullshit detector was on high alert. 😁
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1319047856469254145
https://twitter.com/enrich1212/status/1319275290946752513?s=19
NOT a sting, but rather a con.
From previously looking into it the average R of asymptomatic people is around 1.5 without NPIs. With NPIs it falls below 1. The problem is symptomatic people, they have a base R of around 4.5 and with ordinary NPIs (tier 1) that falls to around 1.7, and further NPIs can bring that to near 1 (where we are now).
My theory is based on rapid isolation, test, isolate, test, isolate until there aren't any cases left.
On the money side of things, maybe £1000 is too generous, I don't know, it just seems like a number that would stop people complaining about forced tracking, but it could be set a bit lower to discourage those things you describe. Ultimately the government has created a whole host of unscrutinised emergency powers, this seems like a better use of them than what we currently have.
If it is as I think, and other countries have shown, then putting in proper isolation measures for symptomatic positive tested people it brings the base R down from 4.5 to under 1 without NPIs and to basically zero with NPIs which means you can live with a bit of asymptomatic spread as it eventually burns itself out with NPIs and where you get an asymptomatic person infecting someone else who then becomes symptomatic you quickly find that person and isolate them.
What the incentive also does is encourage people to come forwards if they've been in contact with someone who has tested positive, in other countries this has been shown to be a key factor in short tracing times and very high response rates. In terms of stopping parties and such, don't forget that these people will be registered and surveillance will not be very difficult. Basically the idea is to create an effective 2 week police state situation for people who test positive, it's a bit shitty but it's two weeks.
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1318612005058727943
I reckon it’s going to be catch up again. I need all the beauty sleep I can get these days.
In North Carolina, the margin between Democrats and Republicans who have already cast their ballot has been cut in half since last Monday, according to the most recent party data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/22/politics/democratic-turnout-advantage-narrows/index.html
Don't Vote 55%
Labour 17%
Plaid Cymru 10%
Conservatives 11%
UKIP 6%
Liberal Democrats 3.5%
Abolish Assembly 2%
Others .5%
There is an absolutely huge pool of disenchanted voters waiting for a Welsh party to believe in.
So let's hope plenty of young Bernie radicals who say they can't bring themselves to vote for centrist grandad see this video.
The store (a UK chain) obviously didn't realise that East Kilbride is not in England.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1319359424109182978
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1319354173092225025
Would respect her decision whichever way it went. And this year it was NOT easy for her and millions like her. She cast her vote, not just or even mostly for herself, but for her country - win, loose or draw.
God Bless America - E Pluribus Unum! And dude, methinks you are one lucky guy.
In mid-November it will be in Diwali, another festival for which it has yet to announce any plans.
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1319378790049583115?s=20
This trust has two main hospitals.
Note that both Cox & Peterson are members of the Church formerly known as Mormon. May be neither here nor there, save that the Church establishment - as exemplified by Mitt Romney - is NOT enamored of Trumpsky & his man-bites-dog style of politics and "governance".
Cue Toby Young.
According to standard policy for this White House, must be minimum of ONE lie per statement.