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Where are the defectors? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Nigelb said:
    FFS really? a massive scandal regarding his opponent breaking and that's what people are interested in?
    A rogue state or criminal enterprise could make tens of millions of dollars from one tweet from that account.

    Given the emphasis they put on Clinton and her email security it once again shows their complete hypocrisy and incompetence.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Pro_Rata said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Barnsley is the Yorkshire of Yorkshire.

    I like the framing. The Irish famously have Kerry jokes and Bootle, Islington and Thetford jump to mind as similar archetypes.
    The whole of Norfolk, not just Thetford. Mind, in Essex you'd think we'd a bit more sympathetic to other people's problems.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    OnboardG1 said:

    Just returned from town before we go into full lockdown tomorrow for two weeks and the outstanding observation was the 100% mask wearing in shops and good social distancing but utter chaos with groups of young people with no social distancing or masks or seemingly not a care in the world

    My experience was similar but with a different age group problem: old people not wearing their masks or not wearing them correctly.
    The best ones are those who leave the nose uncovered!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Nigelb said:
    FFS really? a massive scandal regarding his opponent breaking and that's what people are interested in?
    "Scandal" you're funny.
    I don;t want to get anybody sued, matey.

    Otherwise I would be calling it what undoubtedly effing is.
    Go on, give us some code words
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    As untrue as Thatcher closed all the mines.
    Furlough is still running in the North isnt it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Nigelb said:
    I don't find that credible. I think the Volkskrant has been taken in by a self-publicist.
  • Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    As untrue as Thatcher closed all the mines.
    I don't know what else he has said, but in that tweet he doesn't say it was true, but that the narrative is set. He might well be right. Once people have made up their minds what has happened pointing out contrary facts rarely changes opinion, as your example likely demonstrates.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:
    When Obama got in didn't they insist on not being able to use a load of tech things, only use certain phones etc? But Trump just sits there on his iCrap all day and night with basically zero protection (even if it had been a much harder password, a targeted attack can guess most human readable passwords theses days given a reasonable amount of time*).

    * these days your password has to be very long and totally random stream of characters to really offer much protection.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    The previously impressive Sunak looks fed up at the presser. Johnson is batting the ordure Sunak's way.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    As untrue as Thatcher closed all the mines.
    Precisely. But it will be believed too.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598

    Nigelb said:
    FFS really? a massive scandal regarding his opponent breaking and that's what people are interested in?
    I hope the 'hacker' doesn't intend to travel to the US any time soon
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Alistair said:

    Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.

    Anything to do with Joe at all?
  • Alistair said:

    Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.

    More nonsense then?

    I wonder what it was about that which got contrarian so excited?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Alistair said:

    Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.

    'But, but ... her/his emails!'

    © US Republicans & Bernie-or-Busters 2016-2020
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    Either 538 missed them or is glitching (entirely possible) or Civiqs has chosen now to release polls showing that, over spring and early summer, Biden's position improved. Who knew?



    538 scrapes the pollsters websites automatically - this means that it can "reimport" polls if something changes on the underlying site (and this happens surprisngly often)
    That makes sense, thanks for clearing up.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.

    Anything to do with Joe at all?
    Supposedly. But he's specifically not referred to by name in the e-mails.

    Seems like FOX will be running with it so you'll know about it soon without having to go to the effort of typing "Joe Biden" into Twitter and then clicking Latest (secret research tool)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    O/T. Good header from Nick Palmer. Having known a few Tory MPs, some who are no longer, but a couple who are still there and who, it might be said are somewhat uncomfortable with the direction it has taken, I think the crux is that most, if not all Con MPs, have had very long relationships and friendships with people who are also Tories. It takes a lot of guts to effectively betray, or be seen to betray, all these people quite intentionally. I am sure the same must be of those that are in other parties.

    As for the vehicle that is the LDs, many Tories hate them more than Labour. I suggested to a friend of mine who is a rare breed nowadays; a moderate Tory councillor, who had told me he was not voting Tory at the GE that "why not the LDs?" and he looked at me as if I had suggested voting for the Nazi Party!

    Ha ha yes hating the Lib Dems is one thing that Labour and Tory die-hards tend to agree on.
    Even some quite sensible party members can talk of 'betrayal' when the LDs stand and split the vote, as though they are not their own distinct entity.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
  • I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.

    Fish if it's all that's left ought to be fixable because if there's no deal the EU get no fish at all from our waters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.
    I'll bet 'figure it out later amd fudge for the time being'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    TOPPING said:

    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
    Slippery topic?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
    Michel Fish
  • Has the Boris-inator had anything worthwhile to say at this press briefing, or is it just Dishi announcing all the magic money forest stuff?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.

    Fish if it's all that's left ought to be fixable because if there's no deal the EU get no fish at all from our waters.
    I did wonder about state aid (which shouldn't be a problem as the UK does it much less than many EU members), LPF (which may be more intractable if the EU wants the UK to match them in perpetuity) - and fish will be smoke & mirrors. Additionally "enforcement mechanism" may be tricky given the IMB shenanigans...

  • kle4 said:

    I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.
    I'll bet 'figure it out later amd fudge for the time being'.
    That would be a great victory for the UK if so.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Andy_JS said:


    "The 83-year-old who spoke for a nation: Ex-housekeeper Maureen from Barnsley who said she 'doesn't give a sod' about Tier 3 survived Covid, is not a fan of Matt Hancock and laughs off calls for her to be PM

    Maureen, 83, from Barnsley, South Yorkshire, became celebrity overnight after Tier 3 'don't give a sod' remark
    She is a parish councillor of 50 years and has revealed she and her husband Michael both beat coronavirus
    She spoke following the announcement by officials that the region would enter Tier 3 this weekend
    The pensioner was hailed by social media fans for her straight talking manner and direct opinions"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8868129/Ex-housekeeper-Maureen-83-Barnsley-doesnt-sod-Tier-3-survived-Covid-herself.html

    Its clear there are a stack of votes in getting behind Great Barrington. Will anybody serious pick up the cause and run with it?
    Probably not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    It's pathetic. Even with Google at my disposal I can never, ever think of a good pun.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    Has Trump found the secret Trafalgar crossbreaks ?
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1319300515478622218
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    kle4 said:

    I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.
    I'll bet 'figure it out later amd fudge for the time being'.
    That would be a great victory for the UK if so.
    I am struggling to think of anything whatsoever that you would not categorise as a great victory for the UK.

    That you see it in those terms is also telling but not surprising.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    TOPPING said:

    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
    They're obviously floundering.
  • As untrue as Thatcher closed all the mines.
    Precisely. But it will be believed too.
    Worth thinking about why, too.

    For a start, both untruths misexpress things that probably are true. Maggie's treatment of the miners (as opposed to their union leaders) probably was more brutal than it needed to be. Rishi's autumn bailout probably started too stingy and the improvement has come too late and that has hurt people in the north.

    And misleading simplifications- using an untruth to express a deeper truth- is a standard part of the politician's toolbox. Labour isn't working. Don't let [Cameron] take Britain back to the 1980s. Politicians complaining about it are like fish complaining about water.

    And, lets be honest, if you make Boris Johnson your leader, you deserve everything you get, misleading slogan-wise.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    TOPPING said:

    It's pathetic. Even with Google at my disposal I can never, ever think of a good pun.

    there was an obvious one with fish / smoke and mirrors / kippers there, but I don't want to be on the hook for starting a pun war
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    Alistair said:
    Yes but that was because Obama had much more appeal to African American voters than Hillary Clinton and Biden and Trump has much more appeal to white working class voters in the rustbelt than Romney did
  • TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.
    I'll bet 'figure it out later amd fudge for the time being'.
    That would be a great victory for the UK if so.
    I am struggling to think of anything whatsoever that you would not categorise as a great victory for the UK.

    That you see it in those terms is also telling but not surprising.
    It is quite simple really: The EU are trying to tie us down, the UK is trying not to be tied down.

    If it's a fudge then the UK hasn't been tied down. Victory UK. If the UK is obliged to dynamically follow EU rules then that would be something I'd oppose.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    TOPPING said:

    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
    Well I think it 's a bit of a red herring!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
    Michel Fish
    "We've had lady phone up Brussels earlier saying there's going to be a deal done with the UK later on. Don't worry, there won't"
  • TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    Nigelb said:
    When Obama got in didn't they insist on not being able to use a load of tech things, only use certain phones etc? But Trump just sits there on his iCrap all day and night with basically zero protection (even if it had been a much harder password, a targeted attack can guess most human readable passwords theses days given a reasonable amount of time*).

    * these days your password has to be very long and totally random stream of characters to really offer much protection.
    Yep. Reputedly Obama's Blackberry was customised with the NSA's own Suite A cryptographic algorithms replacing the stock software, and used exclusively through White House Communication Agency run base stations so effectively on its own private network with a human-in-the-loop around the clock.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Alistair said:
    LOLs. So the 'cast iron' rule is that it is the challenger who outruns the polls in MI, WI and PA by 4-6%. So Biden has >10% leads in each ... ??? :dizzy:
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    Alistair said:

    Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.

    More nonsense then?

    I wonder what it was about that which got contrarian so excited?
    Unless the NY Post or Giuliani (who may be busy dealing with other things) release the email headers the story is worthless. If you claim you have some incriminating emails you need to prove that said email was sent not forged, it's quite easy to do, but as yet the accusers have not done so.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited October 2020

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    I believe that to be an unfortunate coincidence. Cock-up rather than conspiracy.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Makes sense, does it not as "60 Minutes" will contain adverts which - knowing American TV - take up a large chunk of the time?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:
    FFS really? a massive scandal regarding his opponent breaking and that's what people are interested in?
    What is this massive scandal of which you speak ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    TOPPING said:

    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
    Well I think it 's a bit of a red herring!
    Fish are too easy. People just trawl though the dictionary and you end up with a congeries of second rate puns, while the real dabs clam up and sit pouting on the sidelines.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:
    I don't find that credible. I think the Volkskrant has been taken in by a self-publicist.
    I just thought it was quite funny.
    No opinion either way as to its veracity, as it seems entirely possible, even if inadequately evidenced.
  • https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1319303611470483457?s=19

    ComRes seems to be an outlier, this seems intuitively accurate to me
  • kle4 said:

    I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.
    I'll bet 'figure it out later amd fudge for the time being'.
    Figure it out in 2024 a couple of months after the general election perhaps?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

    "£60m to support business which in turn helps employees" was not what was described in the news reports yesterday. It was a lump sum that the council could use to top up furlough wages. And there was no mention of the £22m at the time of these negotiations (ie yesterday).

    But I'm glad it is clear.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    (Reuters) - Imagine that the polls have closed in Florida, counties are beginning to report early vote counts, and it looks like former Vice President Joe Biden is way ahead. An hour later, Pennsylvania counties begin to report and it seems to be a slam dunk for U.S. President Donald Trump.

    Don’t be fooled, voting experts and academics say. Early vote counts in the most competitive, battleground states can be particularly misleading this election because of the surge in mail-in or absentee ballots, and the different ways that they are processed.


    https://tinyurl.com/y6qagtyg
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited October 2020

    TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

    Yes. Also, I can't help thinking that if the package Sunak announced today had been announced a couple of weeks, or longer, ago, when it was clear that hospitality was going to be damaged by Tier 2, then negotiations with Andy Burnham would have been easier from the start. I suspect the government has cocked up here, with a bit of dithering. The fact that Sunak is backdating some of the measures to August sort of gives the game away.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited October 2020

    TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

    Yes. Also, I can't help thinking that if the package Sunak announced today had been announced a couple of weeks, or longer, ago, when it was clear that hospitality was going to be damaged by Tier 2, then negotiations with Andy Burnham would have been easier from the start. I suspect the government has cocked up here, with a bit of dithering.
    Someone was evidently very keen to stop Andy from having a victory. And in that light the £5m makes a lot of sense.

    They couldn't give in because that would a) mean Andy had won; and b) shoot today's fox.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255

    Has the Boris-inator had anything worthwhile to say at this press briefing, or is it just Dishi announcing all the magic money forest stuff?

    There was a bit of public shaming over lockdown compliance off the back of that imperfect study whenever the effectiveness of test and trace was mentioned.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.

    Seems this should be Trafalgar's business tagline.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @MaxPB @Nigelb

    Have you guys heard that the Pfizer study has been unblinded?

    No, but I've been fairly busy at work.
    Nothing announced that I can see.

    Moderna announced completion of enrolment for their PIII, FWTW.

    And there's an FDA vaccines conference today.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XTiL9rUpkg&feature=youtu.be
    Well, it's probably one of two things:

    (1) Either someone at the conference said something... and it's spread
    or
    (2) Someone thought that with the conference on, it would be a good time to spread the rumour
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1319303611470483457?s=19

    ComRes seems to be an outlier, this seems intuitively accurate to me

    More recent. Com Res was sampled last weekend IIRC.
    Still MOE stuff though.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    And a battle is a Schlacht, which I find pleasingly uneuphemistic.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    Wass is?

    Is that OG?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Reminds me of the famous Bismarck quote: 'People who like laws and sausages shouldn't see how they are made.'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    TOPPING said:

    "Fish is the thing to tackle."

    Where's @ydoethur when we need him?
    The scale of the problem is not insuperable.
    From either side's point of view, it's surely just a sprat to catch a mackerel ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    Wass is?

    Is that OG?
    Bavarian.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    Wass is?

    Is that OG?
    Bavarian.
    Ah. tyvm.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    21,242
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    He's adept at lying/bullshitting when addressing an audience.
    In interviews, he struggles.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1319306305027280897
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    LONDON (Reuters) - Britain confirmed details of its route to citizenship for almost three million people in its former colony Hong Kong, saying in a statement that there would be no quota on numbers and that a five-year visa would cost 250 pounds ($330) per person.

    https://tinyurl.com/yxwfgskp
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Barrett clears the Judiciary Committee (all Democrats absent).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh the Latest Biden email stuff is in the Daily Mail and has been hours ago so no idea why contrarian was being so coy.
  • alex_ said:

    21,242

    Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

    "£60m to support business which in turn helps employees" was not what was described in the news reports yesterday. It was a lump sum that the council could use to top up furlough wages. And there was no mention of the £22m at the time of these negotiations (ie yesterday).

    But I'm glad it is clear.
    Fair enough its being reported in an unclear way, but thats whats happening.

    Councils could try and use the money to directly top up furlough wages but that would be very bureaucratic and difficult for businesses, HMRC and the council. Far simpler would be to find a proxy for furlough wages, and councils give grants to restricted businesses, perhaps based on headcount.

    AIUI the £22m wasnt negotiated but allocated, so wouldnt necessarily it to be reported together with the £60m.
  • Alistair said:

    Oh the Latest Biden email stuff is in the Daily Mail and has been hours ago so no idea why contrarian was being so coy.

    So no credible media yet?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Alistair said:

    Oh the Latest Biden email stuff is in the Daily Mail and has been hours ago so no idea why contrarian was being so coy.

    So no credible media yet?
    Someone claimed (without any evidence seemingly) to be Biden Jr's business partner. It's sort of pathetic really.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    So the theory on lag was only half right.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Burnham on R4, trying to stoke up divisions between north and south. He`s gone down a lot in my estimation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:
    Democrats approving of his poor performance as it helps them to get rid of the orange idiot?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

    "£60m to support business which in turn helps employees" was not what was described in the news reports yesterday. It was a lump sum that the council could use to top up furlough wages. And there was no mention of the £22m at the time of these negotiations (ie yesterday).

    But I'm glad it is clear.
    Fair enough its being reported in an unclear way, but thats whats happening.

    Councils could try and use the money to directly top up furlough wages but that would be very bureaucratic and difficult for businesses, HMRC and the council. Far simpler would be to find a proxy for furlough wages, and councils give grants to restricted businesses, perhaps based on headcount.

    AIUI the £22m wasnt negotiated but allocated, so wouldnt necessarily it to be reported together with the £60m.
    It is confusing.

    And also ancient history. But...this is what Andy Burnham thought it was for:

    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1318793797019500546
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    Wass is?

    Is that OG?
    Bavarian.
    Ah. tyvm.
    Joking. Illiteracy, actually. I sometimes have to read German but neither speak nor write it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    alex_ said:

    21,242

    Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
    Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
  • TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

    Yes. Also, I can't help thinking that if the package Sunak announced today had been announced a couple of weeks, or longer, ago, when it was clear that hospitality was going to be damaged by Tier 2, then negotiations with Andy Burnham would have been easier from the start. I suspect the government has cocked up here, with a bit of dithering. The fact that Sunak is backdating some of the measures to August sort of gives the game away.
    The backdating means that the government are now effectively giving more support to the businesses than Manchester asked for in the first place! And we locked down 10 days later than intended during which however many extra cases and deaths will have occurred.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    Wass is?

    Is that OG?
    Bavarian.
    Ah. tyvm.
    Joking. Illiteracy, actually. I sometimes have to read German but neither speak nor write it.
    Ha! German is something that many years ago as a schoolboy as a choice between that and Spanish in England I learned.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    Wass is?

    Is that OG?
    Bavarian.
    Ah. tyvm.
    Joking. Illiteracy, actually. I sometimes have to read German but neither speak nor write it.
    Ha! German is something that many years ago as a schoolboy as a choice between that and Spanish in England I learned.
    Glad to see you still remember to put the verb at the end ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    TimT said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    isam said:

    The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!

    And vice versa no doubt

    I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.

    Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
    Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
    To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54618520
    To be fair, the Germans are lot stricter about what goes in a sausage than some other people.
    Wass is in ein wurst, wissen nur Gott und der Schlachter.
    Now I'll be able to remember the German word for butcher. Thanks.
    Wass is?

    Is that OG?
    Bavarian.
    Ah. tyvm.
    Joking. Illiteracy, actually. I sometimes have to read German but neither speak nor write it.
    Ha! German is something that many years ago as a schoolboy as a choice between that and Spanish in England I learned.
    Glad to see you still remember to put the verb at the end ...
    :smile:
  • Anyone sit through that "60 minutes" video?

    Given the way Trump is complaining about it the fact that no snippets have been posted yet makes it seem a bit much ado about nothing.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Hard to avoid that conclusion really. Sunak has generally got the support about right in the end, but does leave it too late and waits to see how the media is playing out before making decisions, perhaps this approach has some merit but will increase stress and anxiety for all involved.
    I still don't understand the £60m and £22m but it does seem that for the want of £5m he has burned the Cons' reputation in the North.
    Its not that difficult.

    £22m extra to enforce the new restrictions and support vulnerable people
    £60m to support businesses, which in turn helps employees

    The govt thought it could avoid paying the £60m if local politicians didnt sign up - that bluff worked with Lancashire who said they only signed up because of the fear of zero grant, but it turned out to be another case of the govt holding 72o rather than AA. As you say £65m instead of £60m would have got the Manchester politicians supporting it, which in turn would give the measures better compliance and have caused the government less damage politically.

    "£60m to support business which in turn helps employees" was not what was described in the news reports yesterday. It was a lump sum that the council could use to top up furlough wages. And there was no mention of the £22m at the time of these negotiations (ie yesterday).

    But I'm glad it is clear.
    Fair enough its being reported in an unclear way, but thats whats happening.

    Councils could try and use the money to directly top up furlough wages but that would be very bureaucratic and difficult for businesses, HMRC and the council. Far simpler would be to find a proxy for furlough wages, and councils give grants to restricted businesses, perhaps based on headcount.

    AIUI the £22m wasnt negotiated but allocated, so wouldnt necessarily it to be reported together with the £60m.
    It is confusing.

    And also ancient history. But...this is what Andy Burnham thought it was for:

    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1318793797019500546
    Yes he asked for an amount of support equivalent to the gap to 80% furlough. It is not the case, despite the press misreporting, that the mechanism would be "boosted local furlough".
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    I wonder what's been agreed on state aid, that seemed the most intractable earlier.
    I'll bet 'figure it out later amd fudge for the time being'.
    Quite likely. State Aid is hypothetical until the EU decides the UK government has infringed its rules, then the shit hits the fan. Fish - people at sea are actually catching the things. It's a Day 1 issue.

    On topic, I would say Kate Hoey, Gisella Stewart etc de facto defected from Labour to the Tories. Labour for Leave was effectively a front organisation. I never understood why they bought the hard capitalist version of Brexit when they could have gone for a more socialist version.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It will be interesting how much of Trump's 38 minutes gets on air, given the claims he makes about the Bidens...
This discussion has been closed.