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Where are the defectors? – politicalbetting.com
Where are the defectors? – politicalbetting.com
I’ve been active in politics for over 50 years, and some things stay the same. The traditional themes – the economy, the NHS, relations with Europe. The reductionist media, simplifying every election to a choice of leaders. The conviction that the current moment is exceptional, and nothing will ever be the same again.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/22/politics/election-2020-donald-trump-barack-obama-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html
The outcomes for those switchers probably mean it shall remain so for most of our lives.
I think both Tory and Labour switchers/rebels did something worthy, but it was clearly bad for their careers and finances and insufficient to break the party bonds, even when the centrist remainers had a reasonable majority in the house. I am not sure when there will be a better environment for switching than we just had, so would expect very few to occur.
Intra party cliques like the ERG may be seen as the answer.
Paul the Octopus was a sea creature
An anagram of Paul the Octopus is epochal outputs
I think we've cracked it!
Take a look at Labour - would you even consider a holiday cottage in their midst?
(I am conscious that you were keen on the likes of Corbyn, but I'm also sure that you're a man of sense.)
It is quite odd though that we've temporarily become almost a one-party state and that party isn't so popular.
We may all condemn Boris in the future, but he's doing a job as PM at the moment that is pretty un-enviable.
I think you're more likely to see Others -> Tory than vice versa.
I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?
Over the past decade there has been a lot of churn, in Scotland almost every seat has changed hands.
(is what I guess he's saying)
https://twitter.com/jamiesusskind/status/1319261756468957184?s=20
"But the practice has almost died out" - what on earth are you talking about, Nick? There were a shed load of defections last year from both main parties - more by far than at any time since the foundation of the SDP. One even physically crossed the floor in a moment of drama.
It's hardly surprising that, in the year since, there haven't been defections. Firstly, those that did defect all either stood down or lost their reelection bids - something for potential defectors to consider there. Secondly, the Tories purged key rebels over Brexit and, for all the grumbling about Johnson's performance, have a large majority early in the term. Thirdly, the Labour left have nowhere to go and moderates will be thoroughly pleased by the direction of travel. Fourthly, the scope for sidling up to a disillusioned opponent in the bar and offering comfort, a scotch, and an idea for a way out, is much reduced at the moment.
So the fact there haven't been defections this year is wholly unsurprising and nobody would sensibly claim it represents the death of the practice.
You'll be mentioning the Natural Law Party next.
Hard to think of anything other than the US elections and Covid atm though.
Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1319266290242973699
Today's IBD/TIPP
Biden 50% (+1)Trump 45% (-1)
Changes with yesterday.
https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
The actual scope for a new party to be successful is much greater now than in the past as ground troops canvassing and delivering door to door become less important and social media more important. Not to say the traditional methods are irrelevant, but they are just part of a wider mix now.
Farage had notable success in the European elections with the Brexit Party and, although they flopped at the General Election, that was partly self-immolation in the cause of Brexit, partly errors made, and partly a low ceiling due to their very Marmite nature.
Perhaps more pertinently, Macron's En Marche! was formed in 2016. I don't think something similar is immediately likely in the UK. But at some point over the next 25 years? Quite possible.
Just 15.1% results returned within 24 hours. The system is overwhelmed - we need a circuit breaker to give it a chance to catch up.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-test-and-trace-hits-lowest-weekly-figure-with-less-than-60-of-contacts-reached-latest-report-shows-12111076
Isn't the problem with new Parties that they simply lack the essential workers on the ground? The SDP was a classic case - all chiefs, not enough indians.
They would have made it three in a row in 2005 but NOP won that by using ICM's methodology.
Nick Sparrow and Martin Boon still are sore about it.
But of course, ignore all the other evidence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_United_States_presidential_election
So even getting 50% of the national popular vote does not guarantee winning the presidency under the US electoral system
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/
https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
Not as delicious as seeing Dominic Grieve get completely stuffed in Beaconsfield though of course.
Change UK should have done a deal with or even just joined the Lib Dems completely. Didn't they make some ridiculous demands leading the Lib Dems telling them to get stuffed.
County Durham 11%
East Riding of Yorkshire 16.5%
Greater Manchester 6.7%
NW Lancs 7.9%
Merseyside 5.2%
The point is Survation was almost spot on in both 2017 and 2019
Not solely on the last election, but factor in other electoral events they've gotten right in the interregnums between general elections.
But I'm reminded of Martin Boon's observation that ICM's 2015 methodology would have accurately predicted the 2017 GE.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/international/us-elections/final-presidential-debate/231363906/all-markets
Polls that can be tested against reality.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875
"Here's the Deal" is a big sell at 8 for me.
Their healthcare policy is a whole lot of nothing.
The really fun bit though is that in this scenario the operative word is Acting. If the Republicans could secure a majority of House delegations in November 2022, come January 2023 they could finally complete the 2020 Presidential election and elect Trump! (It would have to be Trump, not A. N. Other Republican, as the House has to choose from the top three candidates voted on by the Electoral College.)
It has been harder more recently , with increasing turnouts, since there is no voting history for the new voters.
Actually, it seems Opinium were stronger on Boris Johnson's Tories than the other pollsters almost from when he took charge, so in that respect they were consistently closer to the eventual result. That wasn't at this stage of the Parliament of course.