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Where are the defectors? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2020 in General
imageWhere are the defectors? – politicalbetting.com

I’ve been active in politics for over 50 years, and some things stay the same. The traditional themes – the economy, the NHS, relations with Europe. The reductionist media, simplifying every election to a choice of leaders. The conviction that the current moment is exceptional, and nothing will ever be the same again.

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Comments

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    Some of us have gone quite deep into the US elections, even foraging into District level and beyond into issues. But if anyone wants a 4 minute snapshot of the state of play in the Presidential, Senate and House level this is excellent. Slide 4 is well worth checking to see how Biden is flipping places Trump won in 2016:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/22/politics/election-2020-donald-trump-barack-obama-joe-biden-swing-states/index.html

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    nth
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    p.s. No offence to Nick and other UK-centric thread writers but I don't find anything interesting outside of the US right now, not even Brexit, from a betting perspective. Would still love to see more State threads please Mike / Robert. I mentioned Bollier's chances in Kansas (of all places) this morning.
  • Surely the last parliament had more switchers than any in living memory?

    The outcomes for those switchers probably mean it shall remain so for most of our lives.

    I think both Tory and Labour switchers/rebels did something worthy, but it was clearly bad for their careers and finances and insufficient to break the party bonds, even when the centrist remainers had a reasonable majority in the house. I am not sure when there will be a better environment for switching than we just had, so would expect very few to occur.

    Intra party cliques like the ERG may be seen as the answer.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited October 2020
    Fpt


    Have you uncovered Trafalgar's methodology?

    Trafalgar was a sea battle
    Paul the Octopus was a sea creature
    An anagram of Paul the Octopus is epochal outputs

    I think we've cracked it!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Not a chance Dr P.

    Take a look at Labour - would you even consider a holiday cottage in their midst?
    (I am conscious that you were keen on the likes of Corbyn, but I'm also sure that you're a man of sense.)

    It is quite odd though that we've temporarily become almost a one-party state and that party isn't so popular.

    We may all condemn Boris in the future, but he's doing a job as PM at the moment that is pretty un-enviable.

    I think you're more likely to see Others -> Tory than vice versa.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    I'm not sure that I agree with the premise of the article. 2019 had loads of MPs who changed allegiance most notably the TIGgers. You would expect that in the first year after an election there would not fewer MPs who switch, especially when the winning party has a majority of 80. Despite that, the Wikipedia list linked to has five MPs who have switched since the GE.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459

    p.s. No offence to Nick and other UK-centric thread writers but I don't find anything interesting outside of the US right now, not even Brexit, from a betting perspective. Would still love to see more State threads please Mike / Robert. I mentioned Bollier's chances in Kansas (of all places) this morning.

    Yes, I've been searching this site in vain for decent coverage of the US election. Hardly seems to get a mention....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    p.s. No offence to Nick and other UK-centric thread writers but I don't find anything interesting outside of the US right now, not even Brexit, from a betting perspective. Would still love to see more State threads please Mike / Robert. I mentioned Bollier's chances in Kansas (of all places) this morning.

    More US oriented articles does not necessitate fewer non-US articles. I personally prefer a mix of subjects.
  • I think over the past decade after the expenses scandal and the number of MPs who retired based on that, the Brexit debates and the parties shorn of MPs over that etc, and four General Elections over the decade that parties now are "fresher" than they have been in the past.

    Over the past decade there has been a lot of churn, in Scotland almost every seat has changed hands.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138
    IshmaelZ said:

    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.

    We have had MSPs switching to/from SNP or as near as dammit - Slab to independent independent, SNP to independent independent to Scottish Green for instance. But Westminster is prob. too polarised as regards the Tories, and too few other non-SNP MPs to switch to/from, so you are I think right re Westminster.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    eristdoof said:

    I'm not sure that I agree with the premise of the article. 2019 had loads of MPs who changed allegiance most notably the TIGgers. You would expect that in the first year after an election there would not fewer MPs who switch, especially when the winning party has a majority of 80. Despite that, the Wikipedia list linked to has five MPs who have switched since the GE.

    I don't know whether I agree with the article, but all 5 of those had the whip removed instead of choosing to leave. That's not a change of allegiance or defection as Nick is describing.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    p.s. No offence to Nick and other UK-centric thread writers but I don't find anything interesting outside of the US right now, not even Brexit, from a betting perspective. Would still love to see more State threads please Mike / Robert. I mentioned Bollier's chances in Kansas (of all places) this morning.

    Yes, I've been searching this site in vain for decent coverage of the US election. Hardly seems to get a mention....
    Well tell us what you think or know.
  • Much though I respect Nick Palmer, the premise of this article is ludicrous.

    "But the practice has almost died out" - what on earth are you talking about, Nick? There were a shed load of defections last year from both main parties - more by far than at any time since the foundation of the SDP. One even physically crossed the floor in a moment of drama.

    It's hardly surprising that, in the year since, there haven't been defections. Firstly, those that did defect all either stood down or lost their reelection bids - something for potential defectors to consider there. Secondly, the Tories purged key rebels over Brexit and, for all the grumbling about Johnson's performance, have a large majority early in the term. Thirdly, the Labour left have nowhere to go and moderates will be thoroughly pleased by the direction of travel. Fourthly, the scope for sidling up to a disillusioned opponent in the bar and offering comfort, a scotch, and an idea for a way out, is much reduced at the moment.

    So the fact there haven't been defections this year is wholly unsurprising and nobody would sensibly claim it represents the death of the practice.
  • isam said:

    Not only did ChangeUK fail miserably in their aims, it seems no one even remembers they existed!

    Bit like the Lib thingies....
  • eristdoof said:

    I'm not sure that I agree with the premise of the article. 2019 had loads of MPs who changed allegiance most notably the TIGgers. You would expect that in the first year after an election there would not fewer MPs who switch, especially when the winning party has a majority of 80. Despite that, the Wikipedia list linked to has five MPs who have switched since the GE.

    None of those five are defections - just suspensions by their respective parties which just isn't the same at all. As far as I know, all five want to resume membership (and one has).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    Could equally say "a few weeks ago, we fucked up", which some of us pointed out at the time...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    isam said:

    Not only did ChangeUK fail miserably in their aims, it seems no one even remembers they existed!

    Bit like the Lib thingies....
    I'm impressed that you recall them.

    You'll be mentioning the Natural Law Party next.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    Interesting header Nick, thanks.

    Hard to think of anything other than the US elections and Covid atm though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Given post 2019 almost all Tory MPs are now pro Brexit and most Labour MPs are culturally left of Boris and sceptical of Brexit unlikely there will be many more defectors
  • We will have to see what happens when the EHRC report gets published. Expulsions are likely. A new hard loon party in the Commons seems likely given how much the Corbyn cultists hate the Labour Party and Starmer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Be honest, you kind of knew HYUFD would have the answer :) I seem to remember Survation did really badly in 2015 with their final poll but the last two general elections they have been the closest
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
  • IshmaelZ said:

    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.

    I don't really agree with this. The fact is Change UK simply made a hash of the whole thing through awful branding and PR, and sitting out key elections where the Lib Dems stole their clothes.

    The actual scope for a new party to be successful is much greater now than in the past as ground troops canvassing and delivering door to door become less important and social media more important. Not to say the traditional methods are irrelevant, but they are just part of a wider mix now.

    Farage had notable success in the European elections with the Brexit Party and, although they flopped at the General Election, that was partly self-immolation in the cause of Brexit, partly errors made, and partly a low ceiling due to their very Marmite nature.

    Perhaps more pertinently, Macron's En Marche! was formed in 2016. I don't think something similar is immediately likely in the UK. But at some point over the next 25 years? Quite possible.
  • Nigelb said:
    Always had a soft spot for Christie. Such honesty in this matter doesn't surprise.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Mal557 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Be honest, you kind of knew HYUFD would have the answer :) I seem to remember Survation did really badly in 2015 with their final poll but the last two general elections they have been the closest
    I also think (though i may be wrong, that IBD/Tipp were the most accurate in the 2004/2008 and 2012 US elections (national vote) if that is right, and I'm sure someone can confirm/deny then their current polls may make people wonder if this is going to be much closer after all
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    It's obvious test and trace can't cope with the number of cases.
    Just 15.1% results returned within 24 hours. The system is overwhelmed - we need a circuit breaker to give it a chance to catch up.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-test-and-trace-hits-lowest-weekly-figure-with-less-than-60-of-contacts-reached-latest-report-shows-12111076
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
    I wonder if HY "look at the trend" UFD will be banging on about the 2% swing to Biden all day?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited October 2020
    isam said:

    Not only did ChangeUK fail miserably in their aims, it seems no one even remembers they existed!

    Maybe their big mistake was to try to stop Brexit instead of campaigning to get the UK to re-join the EU in the future. In other words they should have made it forward-looking rather than backward-looking. Conservative parties can get away with (or indeed flourish by) looking back into the past, but it doesn't really work for non-conservative political movements.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
    Slight over-egging in that url "-joe-biden-lead-bounces-"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
    I wonder if HY "look at the trend" UFD will be banging on about the 2% swing to Biden all day?
    They still have it much closer than most other national pollsters and that 1% swing can easily swing back tomorrow or next week
  • Thanks Nick, a nice Header and a welcome relief from the US Elections.

    Isn't the problem with new Parties that they simply lack the essential workers on the ground? The SDP was a classic case - all chiefs, not enough indians.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.

    I don't really agree with this. The fact is Change UK simply made a hash of the whole thing through awful branding and PR, and sitting out key elections where the Lib Dems stole their clothes.

    The actual scope for a new party to be successful is much greater now than in the past as ground troops canvassing and delivering door to door become less important and social media more important. Not to say the traditional methods are irrelevant, but they are just part of a wider mix now.

    Farage had notable success in the European elections with the Brexit Party and, although they flopped at the General Election, that was partly self-immolation in the cause of Brexit, partly errors made, and partly a low ceiling due to their very Marmite nature.

    Perhaps more pertinently, Macron's En Marche! was formed in 2016. I don't think something similar is immediately likely in the UK. But at some point over the next 25 years? Quite possible.
    It is a question for the ages why "we need to change politics by returning to the same politics of the past and refusing to accept we lost a referendum" turned out to be a dismal failure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited October 2020
    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    ICM in the UK GEs of 1997 and 2001.

    They would have made it three in a row in 2005 but NOP won that by using ICM's methodology.

    Nick Sparrow and Martin Boon still are sore about it.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    IshmaelZ said:

    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.

    I don't really agree with this. The fact is Change UK simply made a hash of the whole thing through awful branding and PR, and sitting out key elections where the Lib Dems stole their clothes.

    The actual scope for a new party to be successful is much greater now than in the past as ground troops canvassing and delivering door to door become less important and social media more important. Not to say the traditional methods are irrelevant, but they are just part of a wider mix now.

    Farage had notable success in the European elections with the Brexit Party and, although they flopped at the General Election, that was partly self-immolation in the cause of Brexit, partly errors made, and partly a low ceiling due to their very Marmite nature.

    Perhaps more pertinently, Macron's En Marche! was formed in 2016. I don't think something similar is immediately likely in the UK. But at some point over the next 25 years? Quite possible.
    What was The Brexit Party's average % in the seats they stood in at the GE?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Mal557 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Be honest, you kind of knew HYUFD would have the answer :) I seem to remember Survation did really badly in 2015 with their final poll but the last two general elections they have been the closest
    Survation had a final unpublished poll in 2015 though of Tories +7%
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
    And for me more importantly Biden is back to 50% in both head to head and 4 way split
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
    I wonder if HY "look at the trend" UFD will be banging on about the 2% swing to Biden all day?
    They still have it much closer than most other national pollsters and that 1% swing can easily swing back tomorrow or next week
    Yeah but it's bucking your narrative about how the polls were coming in for Trump, isn't it?

    But of course, ignore all the other evidence.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    ICM in the UK GEs of 1997 and 2001.

    They would have made it three in a row in 2005 but NOP won that by using ICM's methodology.

    Nick Sparrow and Martin Boon still are sore about it.
    Thanks TSE and HYUFD for your responses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2020
    Mal557 said:

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
    And for me more importantly Biden is back to 50% in both head to head and 4 way split
    In the 1876 US presidential election Tilden the Democrat got 50.9% of the popular vote and Hayes the Republican candidate got 47.9%, Hayes still won the EC and presidency though 185 to 184 for Tilden.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_United_States_presidential_election
    So even getting 50% of the national popular vote does not guarantee winning the presidency under the US electoral system
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,850
    It's hard to see any of this happening in this parliament. The disaffected Labour MPs are on the left so have no other party to go to. On the Tory side the ones who couldn't stomach where Johnson & Cummings are going were purged. And the LibDems tend to be a destination for defectors rather than a source.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.

    I don't really agree with this. The fact is Change UK simply made a hash of the whole thing through awful branding and PR, and sitting out key elections where the Lib Dems stole their clothes.

    The actual scope for a new party to be successful is much greater now than in the past as ground troops canvassing and delivering door to door become less important and social media more important. Not to say the traditional methods are irrelevant, but they are just part of a wider mix now.

    Farage had notable success in the European elections with the Brexit Party and, although they flopped at the General Election, that was partly self-immolation in the cause of Brexit, partly errors made, and partly a low ceiling due to their very Marmite nature.

    Perhaps more pertinently, Macron's En Marche! was formed in 2016. I don't think something similar is immediately likely in the UK. But at some point over the next 25 years? Quite possible.
    What was The Brexit Party's average % in the seats they stood in at the GE?
    It was 5.5%, not bad considering they didn't stand in seats that the Tories held, which would b the ones they had the best chance of winning in all likelyhood
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
  • rkrkrk said:

    It's obvious test and trace can't cope with the number of cases.
    Just 15.1% results returned within 24 hours. The system is overwhelmed - we need a circuit breaker to give it a chance to catch up.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-test-and-trace-hits-lowest-weekly-figure-with-less-than-60-of-contacts-reached-latest-report-shows-12111076

    It wouldn't surprise me if the figure improves next week. My wife got her weekly one within 24h this week, first time in a month to be 24h. The national figures do seem to indicate more capacity now and an element of catching up on the backlog.
  • isam said:

    Not only did ChangeUK fail miserably in their aims, it seems no one even remembers they existed!

    Lol yes it was very satisfying to see all them lose their seats at the general election.

    Not as delicious as seeing Dominic Grieve get completely stuffed in Beaconsfield though of course.

    Change UK should have done a deal with or even just joined the Lib Dems completely. Didn't they make some ridiculous demands leading the Lib Dems telling them to get stuffed.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    isam said:

    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.

    I don't really agree with this. The fact is Change UK simply made a hash of the whole thing through awful branding and PR, and sitting out key elections where the Lib Dems stole their clothes.

    The actual scope for a new party to be successful is much greater now than in the past as ground troops canvassing and delivering door to door become less important and social media more important. Not to say the traditional methods are irrelevant, but they are just part of a wider mix now.

    Farage had notable success in the European elections with the Brexit Party and, although they flopped at the General Election, that was partly self-immolation in the cause of Brexit, partly errors made, and partly a low ceiling due to their very Marmite nature.

    Perhaps more pertinently, Macron's En Marche! was formed in 2016. I don't think something similar is immediately likely in the UK. But at some point over the next 25 years? Quite possible.
    What was The Brexit Party's average % in the seats they stood in at the GE?
    It was 5.5%, not bad considering they didn't stand in seats that the Tories held, which would b the ones they had the best chance of winning in all likelyhood
    London 2%
    County Durham 11%
    East Riding of Yorkshire 16.5%
    Greater Manchester 6.7%
    NW Lancs 7.9%
    Merseyside 5.2%

  • Trump complaining about interruptions is like Sir Humphrey complaining about obfuscation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Opinium had a 7% Tory lead in its final 2017 poll though.

    The point is Survation was almost spot on in both 2017 and 2019
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Do you think it is a good idea to base current polls accuracy on the pollster's record at the last GE?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Opinium had a 7% Tory lead in its final 2017 poll though.

    The point is Survation was almost spot on in both 2017 and 2019
    But they weren't the most accurate, which was what TimT was asking.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    IshmaelZ said:

    You really have to cross the floor. New parties are no good, the SDP flopped and the Nandos lot put the final nail in that coffin. You can't switch lab-con or vv, nor SNP to/from anyone else, and that's the end of the serious parties. So nowhere to go is the answer.

    I don't really agree with this. The fact is Change UK simply made a hash of the whole thing through awful branding and PR, and sitting out key elections where the Lib Dems stole their clothes.

    The actual scope for a new party to be successful is much greater now than in the past as ground troops canvassing and delivering door to door become less important and social media more important. Not to say the traditional methods are irrelevant, but they are just part of a wider mix now.

    Farage had notable success in the European elections with the Brexit Party and, although they flopped at the General Election, that was partly self-immolation in the cause of Brexit, partly errors made, and partly a low ceiling due to their very Marmite nature.

    Perhaps more pertinently, Macron's En Marche! was formed in 2016. I don't think something similar is immediately likely in the UK. But at some point over the next 25 years? Quite possible.
    Seven time election failure Nigel Farage's aim in 2015 was to get a referendum, in 2016 was to win it, and in 2019 was to support the party most likely to act upon the result
  • isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Do you think it is a good idea to base current polls accuracy on the pollster's record at the last GE?
    Yes and no.

    Not solely on the last election, but factor in other electoral events they've gotten right in the interregnums between general elections.

    But I'm reminded of Martin Boon's observation that ICM's 2015 methodology would have accurately predicted the 2017 GE.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,850

    Today's IBD/TIPP

    Biden 50% (+1)
    Trump 45% (-1)

    Changes with yesterday.

    https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/
    Slight over-egging in that url "-joe-biden-lead-bounces-"
    Yes but they do that every day. Last time it was "Election tightens and it looks like 2016 as Republicans rally round Trump."
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Do you think it is a good idea to base current polls accuracy on the pollster's record at the last GE?
    Yes and no.

    Not solely on the last election, but factor in other electoral events they've gotten right in the interregnums between general elections.

    But I'm reminded of Martin Boon's observation that ICM's 2015 methodology would have accurately predicted the 2017 GE.
    To big up a pollster's hundreds of mid term polls on the basis that they were closest to the result last time with their final poll doesn't seem right to me. What does that tell us about the accuracy of their mid term polls at the previous election? Were they all better than the other pollsters polls as well?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Opinium had a 7% Tory lead in its final 2017 poll though.

    The point is Survation was almost spot on in both 2017 and 2019
    But they weren't the most accurate, which was what TimT was asking.
    For the purpose of this US election if Trafalgar and Rasmussen are almost spot on again in the key swing states and popular vote as they were in 2016 then Trump will be re elected, it does not matter if another pollster this time gets the national result exactly right
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Do you think it is a good idea to base current polls accuracy on the pollster's record at the last GE?
    Yes and no.

    Not solely on the last election, but factor in other electoral events they've gotten right in the interregnums between general elections.

    But I'm reminded of Martin Boon's observation that ICM's 2015 methodology would have accurately predicted the 2017 GE.
    To big up a pollster's hundreds of mid term polls on the basis that they were closest to the result last time with their final poll doesn't seem right to me. What does that tell us about the accuracy of their mid term polls at the previous election? Were they all better than the other pollsters polls as well?
    I'm talking about their final polls for elections like mayorals, Scottish & Welsh Parliaments.

    Polls that can be tested against reality.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Trump complaining about interruptions is like Sir Humphrey complaining about obfuscation.
    It must have been a total disaster given how much Trump has complained about the interview. Even that Aussie journalist didn't anger Trump this much.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,850
    Alistair said:
    The SPIN ones are worth a look too.

    "Here's the Deal" is a big sell at 8 for me.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875

    Surely it will just make people overconfident and lead to the abandoning of social distancing?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    First bit of honesty in a while.
    Their healthcare policy is a whole lot of nothing.
  • Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    It's obvious test and trace can't cope with the number of cases.
    Just 15.1% results returned within 24 hours. The system is overwhelmed - we need a circuit breaker to give it a chance to catch up.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-test-and-trace-hits-lowest-weekly-figure-with-less-than-60-of-contacts-reached-latest-report-shows-12111076

    It wouldn't surprise me if the figure improves next week. My wife got her weekly one within 24h this week, first time in a month to be 24h. The national figures do seem to indicate more capacity now and an element of catching up on the backlog.
    15% is a desperately low bar to improve from so it's very possible. That said, the number of cases is still going up - so I'd expect the demand for tests to accelerate also.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    He nails the pomposity and pretension of the age we live in where everything has to seemingly be done for someone else's benefit.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:
    The result of the special Senate election in Georgia becomes crucial in that scenario. Moat likely it will go to a run-off in early January. A Dem victory could change the Senate balance from 50-50 to 51-49 which means a VP would be elected, so it would be Acting President Kamala Harris on Jan 20 (not 21) rather than Nancy Pelosi.

    The really fun bit though is that in this scenario the operative word is Acting. If the Republicans could secure a majority of House delegations in November 2022, come January 2023 they could finally complete the 2020 Presidential election and elect Trump! (It would have to be Trump, not A. N. Other Republican, as the House has to choose from the top three candidates voted on by the Electoral College.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Just noticed that the business support package is backdated to August, that's a really good decision. Will help a lot of those businesses in the North who have been surviving on scraps. I think the only thing left to fix is tier 3 job support and putting it back to 80%. Everything else in the package actually looks like it might work and prevent all those thousands of businesses under these restrictions from going bankrupt.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,613

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    Not quite sure of the point - Golden Rule stuff, if everyone protects other people, you get protected as well. What's that phrase? Herd Immunity???
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    edited October 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875

    Surely it will just make people overconfident and lead to the abandoning of social distancing?
    It might save the lives of care home residents and the vulnerable
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    He nails the pomposity and pretension of the age we live in where everything has to seemingly be done for someone else's benefit.
    Oh dear.
  • Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    Not quite sure of the point - Golden Rule stuff, if everyone protects other people, you get protected as well. What's that phrase? Herd Immunity???
    Indeed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,850
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    He nails the pomposity and pretension of the age we live in where everything has to seemingly be done for someone else's benefit.
    Peter Hitchens nails "pomposity and pretension" - is this philosophically possible?
  • TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    ICM in the UK GEs of 1997 and 2001.

    They would have made it three in a row in 2005 but NOP won that by using ICM's methodology.

    Nick Sparrow and Martin Boon still are sore about it.
    But it was easier then, with declining turnout in elections.
    It has been harder more recently , with increasing turnouts, since there is no voting history for the new voters.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    He nails the pomposity and pretension of the age we live in where everything has to seemingly be done for someone else's benefit.
    It isn't pretension that is literally the reason why NHS and Care Staff get the vaccine. Not for themselves.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,272
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    He nails the pomposity and pretension of the age we live in where everything has to seemingly be done for someone else's benefit.
    Peter Hitchens nails "pomposity and pretension" - is this philosophically possible?
    Not to mention that given how self-serving and individualist we are as a society, it really is fuck all to ask people to get a flu jab for the people who can't and to help ease the burden on the NHS. It's just risible that people like Hitchens think we live in a world where we all have to be super selfless when the rank obsession with oneself is evident in every strand of the country.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    He nails the pomposity and pretension of the age we live in where everything has to seemingly be done for someone else's benefit.
    Peter Hitchens nails "pomposity and pretension" - is this philosophically possible?
    Every time he opens his mouth.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138

    IshmaelZ said:

    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875

    Surely it will just make people overconfident and lead to the abandoning of social distancing?
    It might save the lives of care home residents and the vulnerable
    Not if it kills them. I doubnt it - but that news report is only about one aspect of the immune response. The trials are needed to see if it works in the wild, so to speak.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    isam said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    I have long given up responding to HYUFD on any issue relating to polling. But, his insistence on Trafalgar as the only outfit worth listening to this election because of their 'performance' in 2016 has me wondering a question. Has any polling outfit (since there has been a large number to pick from) ever been the most accurate pollster in 2 or more GEs in a row in a major Western Democracy? Ok, let's narrow that down to 'in the US or the UK'?

    Survation final poll 2017 Tories +1% Result Tories +2%

    Survation final poll 2019 Tories +11% Result Tories +12%
    Fake news, Opinium won the 2019 GE polling contest.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/political-polling-10th-december-2019-final-poll/

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1205449377671733248
    Do you think it is a good idea to base current polls accuracy on the pollster's record at the last GE?
    Yes and no.

    Not solely on the last election, but factor in other electoral events they've gotten right in the interregnums between general elections.

    But I'm reminded of Martin Boon's observation that ICM's 2015 methodology would have accurately predicted the 2017 GE.
    To big up a pollster's hundreds of mid term polls on the basis that they were closest to the result last time with their final poll doesn't seem right to me. What does that tell us about the accuracy of their mid term polls at the previous election? Were they all better than the other pollsters polls as well?
    I'm talking about their final polls for elections like mayorals, Scottish & Welsh Parliaments.

    Polls that can be tested against reality.
    Oh I am not really arguing with what you are saying, but asking a question

    Actually, it seems Opinium were stronger on Boris Johnson's Tories than the other pollsters almost from when he took charge, so in that respect they were consistently closer to the eventual result. That wasn't at this stage of the Parliament of course.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,272

    IshmaelZ said:

    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875

    Surely it will just make people overconfident and lead to the abandoning of social distancing?
    It might save the lives of care home residents and the vulnerable
    We don't know it works yet. It has a damned good chance of doing so, but we don't know until trials are done.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Next he'll be citing Andrew Wakefield.
    He nails the pomposity and pretension of the age we live in where everything has to seemingly be done for someone else's benefit.
    Oh dear.
    Well to be fair, it's against the rules to state openly what really riles the shit out of Hitchens about that poster. But at least they are not women, nor (afawct) married to each other.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875

    Surely it will just make people overconfident and lead to the abandoning of social distancing?
    It might save the lives of care home residents and the vulnerable
    Not if it kills them. I doubnt it - but that news report is only about one aspect of the immune response. The trials are needed to see if it works in the wild, so to speak.
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875

    Surely it will just make people overconfident and lead to the abandoning of social distancing?
    It might save the lives of care home residents and the vulnerable
    Not if it kills them. I doubnt it - but that news report is only about one aspect of the immune response. The trials are needed to see if it works in the wild, so to speak.
    I realise trials are required but if a care home resident gets Covid there is a very high chance of death, I doubt there is much chance of death from complications of having this vaccine
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,256

    IshmaelZ said:

    They should just start injecting the most vunerable with this

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-oxford-22887875

    Surely it will just make people overconfident and lead to the abandoning of social distancing?
    It might save the lives of care home residents and the vulnerable
    It might, although still awaiting solid evidence and assessment. But if you advocate employing this not-fully-assessed preventative measure with possibly (until the safety assessments are fully in) serious downsides, why are you so against mask wearing, which is also not fully assessed and needs more evidence of efficacy but has somewhat more predictable worst case downsides?
This discussion has been closed.