Looking at my data again and I think the R is inching upwards after a pretty sustained drop, even in areas where it is at or below 1 it has started going up again.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
Almost as though you know the experts should have been doing this years ago.
They may have, but those models are locked up in the vaults of academia. Who knows, maybe between three chemistry, physics and maths graduates we'll crack it?
R is something you should expect to oscillate, there are a load of different outbreaks, some large, some small in contacts that often stay within groups them occasionally break elsewhere (like premier League clubs mainly play each other, but then have an odd CL or a League Cup game). Some of these will ebb, like student infections now, some flow, and as the larger ones get towards peak that's when R tops out.
Again, I think that isolation survey is to be questioned. My reading was that, people were only counted as quarantining if they did the full 14 days: if T&T only contact you on day 4 after your contact, and you quarantine fully for the next 10, then that counted as a quarantine failure. Similarly, if you said you had any matching symptoms and had failed to isolate, they explicitly said that they always counted that as a failure and they did not account for if there was a self-evident other explanation in that circumstance. A large amount of non compliance reasons were for symptoms too mild - I've had a cough, but no way it's COVID - a combined 40%ish seemed to give reasons like essentials shopping and medical needs (and there could be some who gave multiple answers).
Looking at my data again and I think the R is inching upwards after a pretty sustained drop, even in areas where it is at or below 1 it has started going up again.
I spent some working hours today working out how to model different rates of self isolation and how they would change the R value, it's heavy going as I'm basically learning viral replication models from scratch, I've also put a couple of my team on the task, one is a physics graduate and the other a maths one so we may yet make some headway but it could be a couple of weeks before we have any fucking idea what we're doing though.
Almost as though you know the experts should have been doing this years ago.
They may have, but those models are locked up in the vaults of academia. Who knows, maybe between three chemistry, physics and maths graduates we'll crack it?
R is something you should expect to oscillate, there are a load of different outbreaks, some large, some small in contacts that often stay within groups them occasionally break elsewhere (like premier League clubs mainly play each other, but then have an odd CL or a League Cup game). Some of these will ebb, like student infections now, some flow, and as the larger ones get towards peak that's when R tops out.
Again, I think that isolation survey is to be questioned. My reading was that, people were only counted as quarantining if they did the full 14 days: if T&T only contact you on day 4 after your contact, and you quarantine fully for the next 10, then that counted as a quarantine failure. Similarly, if you said you had any matching symptoms and had failed to isolate, they explicitly said that they always counted that as a failure and they did not account for if there was a self-evident other explanation in that circumstance. A large amount of non compliance reasons were for symptoms too mild - I've had a cough, but no way it's COVID - a combined 40%ish seemed to give reasons like essentials shopping and medical needs (and there could be some who gave multiple answers).
Once the bug is as prevalent as it now is, Tracing falls apart. General measures are the effective action, but I think that not tolerable again.
If the lockdown in Wales works Johnson is going to look like an idiot. If not, Johnson will have played a risky but intelligent game. Time will tell
Once the bodies start piling up the clamour for lockdown will become undeniable. It would be better to intervene before the body piling up stage.
Put it this way, I would prefer Johnson to be seen to have played the intelligent game, but think he will look like an idiot, and that will be the least of our troubles
If the Hunter Biden laptop was so incriminating it would have come out weeks ago before tens of millions had already voted . No one cares about the Burisma connections apart from the Trump death cult and going after the children of Biden is going to annoy the very group Trump needs to win over , women are deserting him , and Fox and the rest of the rightwing hate mob are just desperate now and putting out outlandish stories.
If the lockdown in Wales works Johnson is going to look like an idiot. If not, Johnson will have played a risky but intelligent game. Time will tell
Once the bodies start piling up the clamour for lockdown will become undeniable. It would be better to intervene before the body piling up stage.
Put it this way, I would prefer Johnson to be seen to have played the intelligent game, but think he will look like an idiot, and that will be the least of our troubles
The reason the gov got so little shit for lockdown before was that people were totally supportive of it, despite the dreams of libertarianism. People may not be quite so keen now, but they are not super against either, so would expect a clamour for one to increase as other areas go for it and deaths creep up or remain steadily high (at least as compared to the summer), at which point the government will give in.
Some people edge toward making a change from one party to another over a long time, and when they finally do it it is a relief, and something they will probably stick with from now on, having made the leap.
Others really hated doing it but saw no other option, and will jump back at the smallest sign things are returning to normal. Labour has plenty of those people to bring back without even doing much.
If its going to be done, make it strict rather than ineffective. If its going to just be lip service, don't bother.
Well said Foxy - I hope you're well BTW.
If we're going to have a proper lockdown, people need to be strictly following the rules - that's how we get the cases down the first time. It was the only thing that did.
Some people edge toward making a change from one party to another over a long time, and when they finally do it it is a relief, and something they will probably stick with from now on, having made the leap.
Others really hated doing it but saw no other option, and will jump back at the smallest sign things are returning to normal. Labour has plenty of those people to bring back without even doing much.
Good post - and Starmer will surely win votes because of "not Corbyn". He can surely match Corbyn 2017's performance at worst.
Some people edge toward making a change from one party to another over a long time, and when they finally do it it is a relief, and something they will probably stick with from now on, having made the leap.
Others really hated doing it but saw no other option, and will jump back at the smallest sign things are returning to normal. Labour has plenty of those people to bring back without even doing much.
Johnson had to work hard to keep those voters, he is doing a piss poor job
Some people edge toward making a change from one party to another over a long time, and when they finally do it it is a relief, and something they will probably stick with from now on, having made the leap.
Others really hated doing it but saw no other option, and will jump back at the smallest sign things are returning to normal. Labour has plenty of those people to bring back without even doing much.
Johnson had to work hard to keep those voters, he is doing a piss poor job
Well in fairness some of likely still with him, and his plan had been to splurge massive amounts of cash across the area, which has been somewhat curtailed by events.
In King County WA (29% of state registration) as of noon (Pacific) today, Thursday October 22 (Election Day -12)
cumulative 2020 general ballot returns = 464,434 (33% of total active registration)
cumulative 2016 general ED-12 returns = 194,603 (15% of total active registration)
These are the biggest early ballot return numbers that I've seen out here. And note that most of these returns are via official King Co Elections drop boxes, thus avoiding USPS, even though postage for returned ballots is pre-paid.
Also note that as of noon, cumulative returns for City of Seattle = 191,295 (39%) which is higher return rate than rest of King Co - the exact OPPOSITE of the typical, historical early return pattern.
Wasn't 'only essential goods' part of the first UK/English/blahblah whatever lockdown? Why is it so contentious now?
I think people questioned it even then over what was essential, and whether the essential part was guidance or law.
My recollection too. The law was that no-one was allowed to leave their house except to buy necessities, exercise and a few other things. The issue here is whether shops were allowed to sell stuff to people who weren't allowed to buy it. I can't remember whether that was guidance or law.
Are Cornish pasties essential items? What about crisps? nuts? It says no clothes, but what if I am homeless and freezing, are they banned from getting a jumper? You could be kill people. I have an autistic kid, they can't survive without pegga pig, it is totally unjust that if they were to lose it in the street, I couldn't pop into Tesco's and get a new one.
Wasn't 'only essential goods' part of the first UK/English/blahblah whatever lockdown? Why is it so contentious now?
From memory you could only go shopping if you needed essentials, but if you did you could buy non-essentials at the same time, and various rozzers misunderstood this and tried to nick people for buying Easter eggs and similar.
Are Cornish pasties essential items? What about crisps? nuts? It says no clothes, but what if I am homeless and freezing, are they banned from getting a jumper? You could be kill people. I have an autistic kid, they can't survive without pegga pig, it is totally unjust that if they were to lose it in the street, I couldn't pop into Tesco's and get a new one.
"There is no government definition of which products can be sold within those stores."
The government have defined which stores can remain open, and that includes convenience stores, including newsagents and off-licences,” said ACS chief executive James Lowman.
“There is no government definition of which products can be sold within those stores.
ComRes seems to be an outlier, this seems intuitively accurate to me
As I have said the weekend polls will be interesting but all polls just now are of little relevance
I agree with that. Perhaps worth noting though that if the next GE is to be held on 2nd May 2024 - as required by FTPA - we are as near to Polling Day as to Easter 2017 when Theresa May surprised us with her election announcement!
Are Cornish pasties essential items? What about crisps? nuts? It says no clothes, but what if I am homeless and freezing, are they banned from getting a jumper? You could be kill people. I have an autistic kid, they can't survive without pegga pig, it is totally unjust that if they were to lose it in the street, I couldn't pop into Tesco's and get a new one.
We have collectively lost our minds.
And we all thought we were facing this in 3-4 years time if Corbyn got in...the bog roll shortages, the big queues outside supermarkets that only allowed you to buy a small number of essential items....
Are Cornish pasties essential items? What about crisps? nuts? It says no clothes, but what if I am homeless and freezing, are they banned from getting a jumper? You could be kill people. I have an autistic kid, they can't survive without pegga pig, it is totally unjust that if they were to lose it in the street, I couldn't pop into Tesco's and get a new one.
Wasn't 'only essential goods' part of the first UK/English/blahblah whatever lockdown? Why is it so contentious now?
No, the advice was to only go out shopping for essential items, not Tesco is banned from selling X.
If Boris had announced this, every government minister would now face a quiz on every media appearance if the following are essential.
Yes. A Guardian journalist would have only have needed to ask whether plantain counted as essential or not and the ‘The Govt have lost control of the messaging’ tweets would have been polluting the site left, left and left of centre
Wasn't 'only essential goods' part of the first UK/English/blahblah whatever lockdown? Why is it so contentious now?
From memory you could only go shopping if you needed essentials, but if you did you could buy non-essentials at the same time, and various rozzers misunderstood this and tried to nick people for buying Easter eggs and similar.
Pretty sure it was guidance not the law. Nobody could ever define the word "essential" in legislation.
The Government did seek to categorise shops as "essential" or "otherwise", but once they were deemed to fall into the former category they could sell what they wanted.
There were various stories of police over-reach where they misunderstood this (Easter eggs etc)
Democrats continue to maintain their lead over Republicans in pre-Election Day ballots cast in the battleground states of North Carolina and Florida, but that gap is narrowing as in-person early voting ramps up.
In North Carolina, the margin between Democrats and Republicans who have already cast their ballot has been cut in half since last Monday, according to the most recent party data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations.
Wasn't 'only essential goods' part of the first UK/English/blahblah whatever lockdown? Why is it so contentious now?
No, the advice was to only go out shopping for essential items, not Tesco is banned from selling X.
If Boris had announced this, every government minister would now face a quiz on every media appearance if the following are essential.
I know for a fact that M&S in Glasgow only had their food hall open the first time round.
In the full lockdown, a number of stores shut sections that could be regarded as non-essential. Boots came under quote a lot of pressure from staff to shut the makeup sections, IRRC.
I think there were a couple of incidents of police trying the "police" trolley contents, which stopped immediately, when their management told them to back off.
If there is an Overton window of people's civil liberties and justified restrictions on freedom in the name of disease suppression then it has been pushed out the fucking door and into the next county.
Comments
Again, I think that isolation survey is to be questioned. My reading was that, people were only counted as quarantining if they did the full 14 days: if T&T only contact you on day 4 after your contact, and you quarantine fully for the next 10, then that counted as a quarantine failure. Similarly, if you said you had any matching symptoms and had failed to isolate, they explicitly said that they always counted that as a failure and they did not account for if there was a self-evident other explanation in that circumstance. A large amount of non compliance reasons were for symptoms too mild - I've had a cough, but no way it's COVID - a combined 40%ish seemed to give reasons like essentials shopping and medical needs (and there could be some who gave multiple answers).
https://twitter.com/KeatonPatti/status/1039889888961880064
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/1319381133193318406?s=20
Put it this way, I would prefer Johnson to be seen to have played the intelligent game, but think he will look like an idiot, and that will be the least of our troubles
Surely just actually written than genuinely a bot though.
Labour's coming back
Though I’d be interested to see what the new AI would do.
Others really hated doing it but saw no other option, and will jump back at the smallest sign things are returning to normal. Labour has plenty of those people to bring back without even doing much.
If we're going to have a proper lockdown, people need to be strictly following the rules - that's how we get the cases down the first time. It was the only thing that did.
https://twitter.com/tcwittes/status/1319342968566915074
Not exactly a mystery what he might do with these powers, and a supine Supreme Court.
https://twitter.com/tcwittes/status/1319343687764246528
If Boris had announced this, every government minister would now face a quiz on every media appearance if the following are essential.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52090441
"There is no government definition of which products can be sold within those stores."
cumulative 2020 general ballot returns = 464,434 (33% of total active registration)
cumulative 2016 general ED-12 returns = 194,603 (15% of total active registration)
These are the biggest early ballot return numbers that I've seen out here. And note that most of these returns are via official King Co Elections drop boxes, thus avoiding USPS, even though postage for returned ballots is pre-paid.
Also note that as of noon, cumulative returns for City of Seattle = 191,295 (39%) which is higher return rate than rest of King Co - the exact OPPOSITE of the typical, historical early return pattern.
What a crock of shit, Last week it was announced that the hs2 between brum, northwards thru east mids and on to leeds was on hold pending a review.
Brilliant.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8869455/Welsh-supermarkets-ordered-sell-essential-goods-countrys-17-day-lockdown.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK
How many one last nights out can one have?
“There is no government definition of which products can be sold within those stores.
Nuts.
I mean, has Wales just gone completely mad?
The Government did seek to categorise shops as "essential" or "otherwise", but once they were deemed to fall into the former category they could sell what they wanted.
There were various stories of police over-reach where they misunderstood this (Easter eggs etc)
I think there were a couple of incidents of police trying the "police" trolley contents, which stopped immediately, when their management told them to back off.