The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!
And vice versa no doubt
I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.
Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
Hence why I said cases/sample date and not cases/reported date. Monday the 19th shows a lot of cases with that specimen date recorded. Which is interesting and I'm curious why that is.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
Hence why I said cases/sample date and not cases/reported date. Monday the 19th shows a lot of cases with that specimen date recorded. Which is interesting and I'm curious why that is.
I am as well. Points to a fairly big increase in the infection rate in a couple of regions.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
Hence why I said cases/sample date and not cases/reported date. Monday the 19th shows a lot of cases with that specimen date recorded. Which is interesting and I'm curious why that is.
It's because it's not plateauing at all. That's just an illusion caused by the incompleteness of the data. In fact, it looks like cases are continuing to rise by about 1,000 cases per day in a roughly linear manner. That's better then exponential, but it's still a rise.
"The 83-year-old who spoke for a nation: Ex-housekeeper Maureen from Barnsley who said she 'doesn't give a sod' about Tier 3 survived Covid, is not a fan of Matt Hancock and laughs off calls for her to be PM
Maureen, 83, from Barnsley, South Yorkshire, became celebrity overnight after Tier 3 'don't give a sod' remark She is a parish councillor of 50 years and has revealed she and her husband Michael both beat coronavirus She spoke following the announcement by officials that the region would enter Tier 3 this weekend The pensioner was hailed by social media fans for her straight talking manner and direct opinions"
...Although Sterlin et al. show that the initial IgA plasmablast response quickly declines, IgA-producing plasma cells have been shown to persist for decades in the gut mucosae of humans (42), and these will not be readily measurable in the blood. Indeed, we found that of all 3 isotypes measured, antigen-specific IgA levels in the saliva exhibited the poorest correlation with antigen-specific IgA levels in the serum. When combined with the parallel formation of re-activatable memory B cells (43), many of which will be tissue-resident (25), the host has excellent mechanisms for mounting swift and robust humoral immunity upon pathogen re-exposure that may be missed using blood-based measurements. An epidemiological study that prospectively follows confirmed COVID-19 cases for several months will determine if these immunological principles hold true in the context of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
In conclusion, our study provides evidence that the IgG response to SARS-CoV-2 spike persists in the saliva and the serum, and that this response can be correlated between the two biofluids, particularly for IgG. Given that the virus can also be measured in saliva by PCR (16–19), using saliva as a biofluid for both virus and antibody measurements may have some diagnostic value. Since SARS-CoV-2 initially replicates in the oro- and nasopharyngeal tracts, in the future it will be critical to characterize the nature and kinetics of salivary antibodies at the earliest time points post-infection in contact-traced individuals in order to determine if there are correlates of protection that impact viral setpoint and COVID-19 disease progression.
The healthcare section of the Trump 60 Minutes interview is a train wreck .
First he says he has a plan , then he says they’re still writing one etc and his comments about the Supreme Court and the ACA are a total disaster for downballot candidates and for him .
Those comments will be going up in attack ads within the hour .
"The 83-year-old who spoke for a nation: Ex-housekeeper Maureen from Barnsley who said she 'doesn't give a sod' about Tier 3 survived Covid, is not a fan of Matt Hancock and laughs off calls for her to be PM
Maureen, 83, from Barnsley, South Yorkshire, became celebrity overnight after Tier 3 'don't give a sod' remark She is a parish councillor of 50 years and has revealed she and her husband Michael both beat coronavirus She spoke following the announcement by officials that the region would enter Tier 3 this weekend The pensioner was hailed by social media fans for her straight talking manner and direct opinions"
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That shouldn't be a cause for celebration though; it just shows how powerful a grip the party system holds over Parliament.
I suspect fewer mild infections of younger people leading to flat or decreasing overall infection rates. However the infections are spreading to an older average demographic leading to increasing numbers of serious conditions.
Keep an eye on the new hospital admissions rate as well as the infection rate. Both are important to the trajectory of the disease.
I suspect fewer mild infections of younger people leading to flat or decreasing overall infection rates. However the infections are spreading to an older average demographic leading to increasing numbers of serious conditions.
Keep an eye on the new hospital admissions rate as well as the infection rate. Both are important to the trajectory of the disease.
Yes, I think this is what's happening, and once again the main driver of it is people not isolating after receiving a positive result.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
Sorry, but I think you're wrong about this. Look again at the dashboard. The 7-day average curve for cases by date reported is damn near identical to the curve for cases by specimen date, except for recent days where the data for cases by specimen date are incomplete. This shows that the 7-day average figure for cases by date reported is actually a good predictor for the final cases by specimen date figure, so it really doesn't make sense to ignore the cases by date reported figure if you're interested in the current situation.
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
I suspect the humbug outrage was a symptom of double-BDS. Terrible to be afflicted with both BDSs simultaneously.
Looks like West Yorkshire won't be entering Tier 3 just yet. Even though some of our boroughs have worse stats than some already at Tier 3.
Meanwhile, an anecdote. My niece and her husband had booked a weekend in a cottage in Scotland. They've now been told they can't go as they live in Greater Manchester. However, if their home address had changed (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) then they'd be OK to go.
Last week I wondered whether this US election bottom of the ticket races might be driving voting, hence increasing turnout for the Presidential (which, given the nature of those bottom of the ticket races, would IMO be on balance bad news for Trump and good for Biden).
There is some evidence of this happening in Texas:
"University of Houston analysis of early voting data found competitive elections are a driving factor in Harris County turnout.
"Early voter turnout has been high in the West University, Montrose, Memorial, Bunker Hill areas and the energy corridor, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.
"“We’re seeing a spike in Katy where you’ve got a competitive House election (Texas House District 132) and we’re seeing spikes in the north part of the suburbs in Harris County, Kingwood and Atascocita where there’s a competitive race in Congressional District 2,” said Rottinghaus."
The EU telling us we cant call vegetarian burgers and sausages "burgers" or "sausages" might cause a few wokies to defect to Leave!
And vice versa no doubt
I bought a blt from a place I didnt realise was veggie only. Realised no bacon and never been back as did feel "tricked" rather than the food being bad.
Calling them veggie burgers completely fine with me, but calling them just "burgers" does feel misleading. Id feel the same about chicken burgers, if I ordered a burger and got a chicken burger technically Ive got what I ordered, but not really.
Yeah. I thought they were saying the food couldn't be labelled "plant based burger", as if a burger had to be made of meat. Maybe I got that wrong, but if so seems wrong. A burger or a sausage can be made of anything cant they?
To be fair, the EU are voting on it, not demanding it - but it is a vote on whether non meat products can be called "Sausage" or "burger". I think that is a bit silly, but maybe I dont know what constitutes a burger or a sausage
I suspect fewer mild infections of younger people leading to flat or decreasing overall infection rates. However the infections are spreading to an older average demographic leading to increasing numbers of serious conditions.
Keep an eye on the new hospital admissions rate as well as the infection rate. Both are important to the trajectory of the disease.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
Sorry, but I think you're wrong about this. Look again at the dashboard. The 7-day average curve for cases by date reported is damn near identical to the curve for cases by specimen date, except for recent days where the data for cases by specimen date are incomplete. This shows that the 7-day average figure for cases by date reported is actually a good predictor for the final cases by specimen date figure, so it really doesn't make sense to ignore the cases by date reported figure if you're interested in the current situation.
More precisely, I think, Reported Date figures avoid giving the false impression that cases have dropped off in recent days, when it only (and normally) indicates missing data. However when there IS a change in the trend you will pick it up earlier with Specimen Date figures as Reported Date data is lagged.
WAY less impactful, electorally-speaking, than the Borat-Rudy G "pants-gate" scandal.
Bobulinski is singing like a canary mate. Like a canary.....
Oh come on. Your orange hued hero is up to his neck in serious criminality. All with faculties know this. There is precisely zero viability in this attack line.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
The principled stand in question consisted of -
"I am not against Brexit. But will vote against it at every turn - except actually voting against it. In the vague hope that something will turn up to frustrate the votes of the people in my constituency. Maybe some clever lawyering....."
If they had stood up and voted for a second referendum - that would have a been a stand.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
They should largely be ignored for the basis of serious detailed analysis. HOWEVER, they are also the most visible figure to the general public and the only one (along with deaths) that most people pay any attention to. So this drives public sentiment, opinion and behaviour which is a very important factor in the whole managing of the crisis.
In the absence of the BBC, say, putting on regular programmes involving impartial scientists discussing and explaining the figures in more detail (something which I think would be more popular and more widely understood than people think), this will continue to be the case and therefore is an important number to continue to look at.
WAY less impactful, electorally-speaking, than the Borat-Rudy G "pants-gate" scandal.
Bobulinski is singing like a canary mate. Like a canary.....
Oh come on. Your orange hued hero is up to his neck in serious criminality. All with faculties know this. There is precisely zero viability in this attack line.
Quite. The only people it might persuade are already committed Trumpsters.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
The principled stand in question consisted of -
"I am not against Brexit. But will vote against it at every turn - except actually voting against it. In the vague hope that something will turn up to frustrate the votes of the people in my constituency. Maybe some clever lawyering....."
If they had stood up and voted for a second referendum - that would have a been a stand.
As apposed to behaving like badly set jelly.
That’s your partial view.
Nevertheless the calibre of the MPs we lost exceeds that of those elected anew, which isn’t a good thing.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
They should largely be ignored for the basis of serious detailed analysis. HOWEVER, they are also the most visible figure to the general public and the only one (along with deaths) that most people pay any attention to. So this drives public sentiment, opinion and behaviour which is a very important factor in the whole managing of the crisis.
In the absence of the BBC, say, putting on regular programmes involving impartial scientists discussing and explaining the figures in more detail (something which I think would be more popular and more widely understood than people think), this will continue to be the case and therefore is an important number to continue to look at.
Kind of Radio 4's "More or Less" with people's faces and pictures? Sounds like a goer.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
Sorry, but I think you're wrong about this. Look again at the dashboard. The 7-day average curve for cases by date reported is damn near identical to the curve for cases by specimen date, except for recent days where the data for cases by specimen date are incomplete. This shows that the 7-day average figure for cases by date reported is actually a good predictor for the final cases by specimen date figure, so it really doesn't make sense to ignore the cases by date reported figure if you're interested in the current situation.
This is how the covid actuary group deal with delayed reporting:
Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.
Didn't I read somewhere that 50 intelligence officers wrote a letter stating that the Biden email stuff had all the hallmarks of a Russian operation?
It's the very scenario that the intelligence community has been warning the White House about. i.e. Claimed and possibly real hacking with laundered disinformation added to tarnish a candidate.
Of course the accuser could release the emails in full and at least we'd know if they are real.
Last week I wondered whether this US election bottom of the ticket races might be driving voting, hence increasing turnout for the Presidential (which, given the nature of those bottom of the ticket races, would IMO be on balance bad news for Trump and good for Biden).
There is some evidence of this happening in Texas:
"University of Houston analysis of early voting data found competitive elections are a driving factor in Harris County turnout.
"Early voter turnout has been high in the West University, Montrose, Memorial, Bunker Hill areas and the energy corridor, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.
"“We’re seeing a spike in Katy where you’ve got a competitive House election (Texas House District 132) and we’re seeing spikes in the north part of the suburbs in Harris County, Kingwood and Atascocita where there’s a competitive race in Congressional District 2,” said Rottinghaus."
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
The principled stand in question consisted of -
"I am not against Brexit. But will vote against it at every turn - except actually voting against it. In the vague hope that something will turn up to frustrate the votes of the people in my constituency. Maybe some clever lawyering....."
If they had stood up and voted for a second referendum - that would have a been a stand.
As apposed to behaving like badly set jelly.
That’s your partial view.
Nevertheless the calibre of the MPs we lost exceeds that of those elected anew, which isn’t a good thing.
I voted Remain - the attempts of Remain MPs to do everything to avoid actually voting against Brexit was pathetic.
A principled stand included (a) a principle and (b) a stand.
Looked it up. It's more Hunter Biden e-mail stuff.
Didn't I read somewhere that 50 intelligence officers wrote a letter stating that the Biden email stuff had all the hallmarks of a Russian operation?
Yes, but if there is serious criminality in them then it doesn't matter how they were obtained.
That they felt they needed a cover story and that the cover story about the laptop repair was so self evidently ludicrous means that there is nothing.
Any material that is damming is totally suspect as it could be planted.
The “classic Russian disinformation operation” involves obtaining some genuine stuff (hacked emails, signatures etc) and then interspersing it with information of seriously damning nature. The credulous will then find the proof for that the genuine emails are, well, genuine, and conclude/use it to imply the who thing is. And it’s a very difficult thing for the accused party to counter without tying themselves in knots.
Scotia? Is it that they want to join the Roman Empire, having missed out first time round?
Not entirely, missed out I mean. There's the Antonine Wall. And an atmospheric road along the wooded Gask Ridge in Perthshire - basically the original Imperial border watch road with watchtowers along it, at least one marked by Historic Scotland.
Scanning down the list of the last 50 Presidential approval polls a 1 has Trump in positive territory - good old Rasmussen. I am sure it will be as accurate as their 2018 mid-term polling that had the GOP 1% ahead.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That shouldn't be a cause for celebration though; it just shows how powerful a grip the party system holds over Parliament.
I for one think it's unhealthy.
Exactly right. Anyone who is in principle against MPs rebelling against their party is in principle against representative democracy.
Last week I wondered whether this US election bottom of the ticket races might be driving voting, hence increasing turnout for the Presidential (which, given the nature of those bottom of the ticket races, would IMO be on balance bad news for Trump and good for Biden).
There is some evidence of this happening in Texas:
"University of Houston analysis of early voting data found competitive elections are a driving factor in Harris County turnout.
"Early voter turnout has been high in the West University, Montrose, Memorial, Bunker Hill areas and the energy corridor, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.
"“We’re seeing a spike in Katy where you’ve got a competitive House election (Texas House District 132) and we’re seeing spikes in the north part of the suburbs in Harris County, Kingwood and Atascocita where there’s a competitive race in Congressional District 2,” said Rottinghaus."
I am beginning to actually believe, rather than hope, that Texas will flip.
The Dem 50 state strategy is dumb and stupid right up until the point when it starts working. And then waves comes.
This could be a once in a generation chance for the Democrats to seriously upend the whole face of US democratic politics at every level. They’ve got to go for it. There’s no point in getting the Presidency if the Republicans retain the power to neuter it in Congress. In the expectation that as usual they will then regain control in a couple of years.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
And with the long-term trend for party memberships to get smaller and smaller and less and less representative of anyone but themselves, that's an increasing problem.
I think it quite easy to think that it is not the end of the world and that she need not be defended because she was indeed in the wrong.
Strong words in debate are one thing, gratuitous insult is another, that's why she was upbraided for unparliamentary language. You can quite easily criticise, even insult, another speaker without using such terms, and all it achieved is a distraction from the issues, so I hope she is proud of herself for that.
Outside the Chamber stronger language will more likely be appropriate, or at least not objectionable. But the context matters. O'Neill seems to be against the proscription of language in any place, but I hardly think people shouting scum, liar or bastard or whatever will improve parliamentary debate. In such a place, it adds to debate for it to be conducted without gratuitous insults. What does it add to permit it?
In short, I think he's rather making a meal out of how much of a meal is being made of it (which it certainly was). Yes, freedom of speech, but that's a rather broader issue than the matter of insulting people in the Commons.
Sir Patrick Vallance struck an unusually positive note in today’s press conference, citing the promising progress of vaccine development allowing the country to return to normal. He began by saying…
“I remain of the view that wider spread use of the vaccine isn’t going to be until Spring or so next year, by the time we get enough doses and understanding.”
However, the Chief Scientific Officer went on to say that:
“We may get a few doses this side of Christmas, maybe something could happen”
Vallance said the realistic timeframe is the spring but there is “good progress” on the vaccines, saying of the rate of development that “it is remarkable”.
Wonder what makes people think the government is less incompetent now than two weeks ago.
I cannot say I recall any newly announced incompetencies, so if there were any new ones they may not have stuck in people's minds, so fewer marked that option.
Wonder what makes people think the government is less incompetent now than two weeks ago.
It looks like most of the 33% who can't decide are giving the government the benefit of the doubt in the voting intention polls. But these are pretty dire figures for any government, surely.
Poland's top court has ruled that abortions in cases of foetal defects are unconstitutional. Once the decision comes into effect, terminations will only be allowed in cases of rape or incest, or if the mother's health is at risk.
Sir Patrick Vallance struck an unusually positive note in today’s press conference, citing the promising progress of vaccine development allowing the country to return to normal. He began by saying…
“I remain of the view that wider spread use of the vaccine isn’t going to be until Spring or so next year, by the time we get enough doses and understanding.”
However, the Chief Scientific Officer went on to say that:
“We may get a few doses this side of Christmas, maybe something could happen”
Vallance said the realistic timeframe is the spring but there is “good progress” on the vaccines, saying of the rate of development that “it is remarkable”.
I think Durham University is going to need to hire Marcus Rashford's PR agency to try and firefight all the damage the students are doing to their image....
Sir Patrick Vallance struck an unusually positive note in today’s press conference, citing the promising progress of vaccine development allowing the country to return to normal. He began by saying…
“I remain of the view that wider spread use of the vaccine isn’t going to be until Spring or so next year, by the time we get enough doses and understanding.”
However, the Chief Scientific Officer went on to say that:
“We may get a few doses this side of Christmas, maybe something could happen”
Vallance said the realistic timeframe is the spring but there is “good progress” on the vaccines, saying of the rate of development that “it is remarkable”.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That shouldn't be a cause for celebration though; it just shows how powerful a grip the party system holds over Parliament.
I for one think it's unhealthy.
Exactly right. Anyone who is in principle against MPs rebelling against their party is in principle against representative democracy.
Parties have an important role to play to provide at least some coordination and direction, but the balance has tilted way too far in how much power they hold over their MPs. Even on minor matters when you'd think it really would not matter if someone strays out of line they treat like an epic betrayal, even if they remain consistent with something the party itself believed 5 minutes ago.
Sir Patrick Vallance struck an unusually positive note in today’s press conference, citing the promising progress of vaccine development allowing the country to return to normal. He began by saying…
“I remain of the view that wider spread use of the vaccine isn’t going to be until Spring or so next year, by the time we get enough doses and understanding.”
However, the Chief Scientific Officer went on to say that:
“We may get a few doses this side of Christmas, maybe something could happen”
Vallance said the realistic timeframe is the spring but there is “good progress” on the vaccines, saying of the rate of development that “it is remarkable”.
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
I think Durham University is going to need to hire Marcus Rashford's PR agency to try and firefight all the damage the students are doing to their image....
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
Rayner using unparliamentary language is not fine, but neither is using "humbug", which in essence is claiming a lie, which is also unparliamentary.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That shouldn't be a cause for celebration though; it just shows how powerful a grip the party system holds over Parliament.
I for one think it's unhealthy.
Exactly right. Anyone who is in principle against MPs rebelling against their party is in principle against representative democracy.
Parties have an important role to play to provide at least some coordination and direction, but the balance has tilted way too far in how much power they hold over their MPs. Even on minor matters when you'd think it really would not matter if someone strays out of line they treat like an epic betrayal, even if they remain consistent with something the party itself believed 5 minutes ago.
The problem is us, as ever.
If a government is defeated in any vote in the Commons - it is "the beginning of the end', "the government is losing it's grip" etc etc. So, strangely, the whipping gets tougher and tougher and the candidate selection favours the eat-your-feet tendency.
And we all vote for this. We get exactly what we voted for.
If a party when up in the opinion polls, if vote went against it and they said "fair enough", then that is what they would do.
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
That article may be interesting to you. It is also however complete bollocks written by somebody who doesn’t have a clue what she’s talking about.
To take a few obvious points:
1) Owain ap Gruffudd, defeated and captured at Bryn Derwin in 1255, was the brother of Llewelyn ap Gruffudd, not his uncle
2) Owain Glyn Dwr was descended from the princes of Powys, but was always styled Prince of Wales after his rebellion.
3) He certainly did aim for an independent country, as attested by charters extant in France and the Vatican.
4) The strongest prince was not declared ‘Prince of Wales.’ In fact, that title was only used by two Welshmen - Llywelyn ap Gruffudd from 1258 to 1277, and Owain Glyn Dwr from 1400 to 1413. This seems to be based on a confusion with the Anglo-Saxon Bretwalda system. Rather, the strongest Prince frequently exercised considerable influence over the other states. Examples, without too much thought, would include Hywel Dda, who codified Welsh Law, and Llewelyn Fawr, who created a single polity stretching from Cardigan to Anglesey through a series of client states. But Rhys ap Gruffudd (d.1197) was by far the most powerful lord in Wales and never even called Prince of his own country of Deheaubarth. He was always ‘Yr Arglywdd Rhys’ (Lord Rhys) or ‘Y Llew De’ (The Southern Lion).
5) That said there was, from 1059-1063, a single of King of Wales, Gruffudd ap Llewelyn. That was acknowledged and accepted. He was killed by Harold (later of Hastings) and Wales divided up to reduce the threat to England’s Western border.
6) Pembrokeshire has been an Anglo-Norman outpost since the early twelfth century. Indeed, the earls of Pembroke were crucial in the Norman conquest of Ireland. To suggest it is a bastion of Welsh identity is completely nonsensical.
A fairly bright fourteen year old doing Eduqas History would have known more than her. But then, it is Unherd. Intelligence not encouraged.
Some more esoteric US polling to consider this evening. The daily IBD/TIPP poll has Biden up 50-45 in a 4-corner race. There's a Rasmussen poll from North Carolina showing Trump ahead 48-47 which is unsurprising in extremis.
Good to see some less well-polled states having a run out and to start with the hyper-marginal swing states of Kansas and Oklahoma. Trump won Kansas by 21 last time but a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump leading 48-41 so that's a 7-point swing to the Democrats which if repeated nationally would be a massive Biden landslide.
I've commented here before Biden might be piling up "useless" votes in Red states and I suspect he will achieve swings in some of these states above the national figure. Off then to Oklahoma which Trump won by 36 last time - the lead now is 22 so that's another 7% swing which is interesting.
If you knew the 7% swing was uniform you'd back Biden all the way to a landslide but we know (or suspect) it isn't and relying on national numbers which might mask a disproportionate swing where it will do Biden no good and a less than optimal swing where he needs it lends a note of caution.
California is the East Ham of America - to be honest, that's where the similarity stops. No one is going to confuse Plaistow for Palm Springs or Manor Park for Malibu but in electoral terms it's solid for one team. Biden leads 58-32 which is a small swing of 2% to Donald Trump on 2016.
One or two Trump optimists thought they might flip Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016 but a Washington Post poll has Biden ahead by 11 so a 3% swing to the Democrat challenger.
Thus do we start to see the profile for this election which can be read in five parts:
1) Strong Democrat states - no swing or a small swing to the Republicans. 2) Weak Democrat states - small swings (2-4%) to Biden. 3) Marginal states - with a couple of exceptions, very small movements but probably enough in the weakest to flip them. 4) Weak Republican states - small swings to Biden to make him a challenger in places like Arizona, Iowa, Georgia and Ohio but perfectly possible Trump will hold all four or lose all four. 5) Strong Republican states - larger swings to Biden but nowhere near enough to challenge the Republicans.
Clinton failed because instead of pushing for votes where she needed them she piled them up where she didn't.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
And with the long-term trend for party memberships to get smaller and smaller and less and less representative of anyone but themselves, that's an increasing problem.
The huge Labour membership increase under Corbyn has largely stuck - my CLP is about 10% off the peak, with some far left members drifting off and some centrists coming in. It's still, I think, the largest party in Western Europe. The members don't necessarily pick the best candidates, but they're not really a handful of hacks.
A problem is that there isn't much British electoral appetite for centrism. Centrists are important as they tend to be floating voters, but parties that define themselves as centrists don't seem to prosper. So the battle is usually defined as between left and right, and people don't jump easily from one to the other. An underlying positive for Labour at the moment is that centrists find Starmer quite appealing, while leftists are tired of losing and ready to give him a chance. But there's not much Con-Lab (or Lab-Con) switching. (Yet.)
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
Rayner using unparliamentary language is not fine, but neither is using "humbug", which in essence is claiming a lie, which is also unparliamentary.
Isn’t it part of the art of Parliamentary behaviour to find euphemisms for things that you aren’t allowed to say directly?
"The 83-year-old who spoke for a nation: Ex-housekeeper Maureen from Barnsley who said she 'doesn't give a sod' about Tier 3 survived Covid, is not a fan of Matt Hancock and laughs off calls for her to be PM
Maureen, 83, from Barnsley, South Yorkshire, became celebrity overnight after Tier 3 'don't give a sod' remark She is a parish councillor of 50 years and has revealed she and her husband Michael both beat coronavirus She spoke following the announcement by officials that the region would enter Tier 3 this weekend The pensioner was hailed by social media fans for her straight talking manner and direct opinions"
You can see why the rest of Yorkshire wants to concrete over Barnsley.
I once worked for a radio "personality" called Scotty McClue as a producer. Broadcasting from Sheffield he described folks in Barnsley as having "drop bottoms". Mmmm
Comments
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/22/joe-biden-debate-boxing-lesson-430933
Is THIS what you're talking about?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/22/hunter-biden-giuliani-hard-drive-431022
WAY less impactful, electorally-speaking, than the Borat-Rudy G "pants-gate" scandal.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
OCT. 18-20 YouGov 45% 53%
OCT. 17-20 American Research Group 35% 60%
OCT. 16-20 Ipsos 41% 54%
OCT. 14-20 Morning Consult 42% 53%
OCT. 15-19 Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) 43% 56%
OCT. 17-18 Change Research 44% 56%
OCT. 16-18 Research Co. 43% 54%
OCT. 16-18 Morning Consult 40% 57%
OCT. 16-18 Morning Consult 43% 55%
OCT. 15-18 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 43% 51%
Saying he wants the Supreme Court to get rid of Obamacare , quote .” I hope they end it “ .
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Persistence of serum and saliva antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike antigens in COVID-19 patients
https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/52/eabe5511
...Although Sterlin et al. show that the initial IgA plasmablast response quickly declines, IgA-producing plasma cells have been shown to persist for decades in the gut mucosae of humans (42), and these will not be readily measurable in the blood. Indeed, we found that of all 3 isotypes measured, antigen-specific IgA levels in the saliva exhibited the poorest correlation with antigen-specific IgA levels in the serum. When combined with the parallel formation of re-activatable memory B cells (43), many of which will be tissue-resident (25), the host has excellent mechanisms for mounting swift and robust humoral immunity upon pathogen re-exposure that may be missed using blood-based measurements. An epidemiological study that prospectively follows confirmed COVID-19 cases for several months will determine if these immunological principles hold true in the context of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
In conclusion, our study provides evidence that the IgG response to SARS-CoV-2 spike persists in the saliva and the serum, and that this response can be correlated between the two biofluids, particularly for IgG. Given that the virus can also be measured in saliva by PCR (16–19), using saliva as a biofluid for both virus and antibody measurements may have some diagnostic value. Since SARS-CoV-2 initially replicates in the oro- and nasopharyngeal tracts, in the future it will be critical to characterize the nature and kinetics of salivary antibodies at the earliest time points post-infection in contact-traced individuals in order to determine if there are correlates of protection that impact viral setpoint and COVID-19 disease progression.
First he says he has a plan , then he says they’re still writing one etc and his comments about the Supreme Court and the ACA are a total disaster for downballot candidates and for him .
Those comments will be going up in attack ads within the hour .
She sounds TOTALLY serious.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1319318212345999360?s=20
I for one think it's unhealthy.
Keep an eye on the new hospital admissions rate as well as the infection rate. Both are important to the trajectory of the disease.
Saying the word ‘scum’ is not the end of the world.
Brendan O'Neill"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/10/22/in-defence-of-angela-rayner/
https://youtu.be/2gsRWhq1uIc
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
https://twitter.com/SteveBroach/status/1319258700150935555
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
Meanwhile, an anecdote. My niece and her husband had booked a weekend in a cottage in Scotland. They've now been told they can't go as they live in Greater Manchester. However, if their home address had changed (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) then they'd be OK to go.
There is some evidence of this happening in Texas:
"University of Houston analysis of early voting data found competitive elections are a driving factor in Harris County turnout.
"Early voter turnout has been high in the West University, Montrose, Memorial, Bunker Hill areas and the energy corridor, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.
"“We’re seeing a spike in Katy where you’ve got a competitive House election (Texas House District 132) and we’re seeing spikes in the north part of the suburbs in Harris County, Kingwood and Atascocita where there’s a competitive race in Congressional District 2,” said Rottinghaus."
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2020/2020/10/22/384430/analysis-4-takeaways-from-harris-countys-record-breaking-early-voting-numbers/
I am beginning to actually believe, rather than hope, that Texas will flip.
2016-2020
'The Nats are divided on Brexit and anti EU supporters of independence are deserting them'
2021
'The new anti EU pro indy party will divide the indy vote but come nowhere'
(they'll be right about the last bit)
https://twitter.com/shirkerism/status/1319309831732367360?s=20
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1319289878895472645?s=09
Spring deaths were possibly higher in the S than the N.
"I am not against Brexit. But will vote against it at every turn - except actually voting against it. In the vague hope that something will turn up to frustrate the votes of the people in my constituency. Maybe some clever lawyering....."
If they had stood up and voted for a second referendum - that would have a been a stand.
As apposed to behaving like badly set jelly.
In the absence of the BBC, say, putting on regular programmes involving impartial scientists discussing and explaining the figures in more detail (something which I think would be more popular and more widely understood than people think), this will continue to be the case and therefore is an important number to continue to look at.
Altogether, how do you view the current Government? (21 Oct):
Competent: 24% (–)
Incompetent: 43% (-6)
Net Competency Rating: -19% (+6)
Changes +/- (6-7 Oct)"
That they felt they needed a cover story and that the cover story about the laptop repair was so self evidently ludicrous means that there is nothing.
Any material that is damming is totally suspect as it could be planted.
Nevertheless the calibre of the MPs we lost exceeds that of those elected anew, which isn’t a good thing.
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1319317880668708864?s=19
Of course the accuser could release the emails in full and at least we'd know if they are real.
A principled stand included (a) a principle and (b) a stand.
Strong words in debate are one thing, gratuitous insult is another, that's why she was upbraided for unparliamentary language. You can quite easily criticise, even insult, another speaker without using such terms, and all it achieved is a distraction from the issues, so I hope she is proud of herself for that.
Outside the Chamber stronger language will more likely be appropriate, or at least not objectionable. But the context matters. O'Neill seems to be against the proscription of language in any place, but I hardly think people shouting scum, liar or bastard or whatever will improve parliamentary debate. In such a place, it adds to debate for it to be conducted without gratuitous insults. What does it add to permit it?
In short, I think he's rather making a meal out of how much of a meal is being made of it (which it certainly was). Yes, freedom of speech, but that's a rather broader issue than the matter of insulting people in the Commons.
“I remain of the view that wider spread use of the vaccine isn’t going to be until Spring or so next year, by the time we get enough doses and understanding.”
However, the Chief Scientific Officer went on to say that:
“We may get a few doses this side of Christmas, maybe something could happen”
Vallance said the realistic timeframe is the spring but there is “good progress” on the vaccines, saying of the rate of development that “it is remarkable”.
https://order-order.com/2020/10/22/vallance-vaccine-doses-could-come-this-side-of-christmas/
I might get one just in time for Christmas then...Christmas 2021 that is.
Essex Independence
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54642108
LGBT students attacked in university Zoom meeting
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-54648103
https://unherd.com/2020/10/wales-has-never-been-a-nation/
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/19/students-from-northern-england-facing-toxic-attitude-at-durham-university
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
If a government is defeated in any vote in the Commons - it is "the beginning of the end', "the government is losing it's grip" etc etc. So, strangely, the whipping gets tougher and tougher and the candidate selection favours the eat-your-feet tendency.
And we all vote for this. We get exactly what we voted for.
If a party when up in the opinion polls, if vote went against it and they said "fair enough", then that is what they would do.
To take a few obvious points:
1) Owain ap Gruffudd, defeated and captured at Bryn Derwin in 1255, was the brother of Llewelyn ap Gruffudd, not his uncle
2) Owain Glyn Dwr was descended from the princes of Powys, but was always styled Prince of Wales after his rebellion.
3) He certainly did aim for an independent country, as attested by charters extant in France and the Vatican.
4) The strongest prince was not declared ‘Prince of Wales.’ In fact, that title was only used by two Welshmen - Llywelyn ap Gruffudd from 1258 to 1277, and Owain Glyn Dwr from 1400 to 1413. This seems to be based on a confusion with the Anglo-Saxon Bretwalda system. Rather, the strongest Prince frequently exercised considerable influence over the other states. Examples, without too much thought, would include Hywel Dda, who codified Welsh Law, and Llewelyn Fawr, who created a single polity stretching from Cardigan to Anglesey through a series of client states. But Rhys ap Gruffudd (d.1197) was by far the most powerful lord in Wales and never even called Prince of his own country of Deheaubarth. He was always ‘Yr Arglywdd Rhys’ (Lord Rhys) or ‘Y Llew De’ (The Southern Lion).
5) That said there was, from 1059-1063, a single of King of Wales, Gruffudd ap Llewelyn. That was acknowledged and accepted. He was killed by Harold (later of Hastings) and Wales divided up to reduce the threat to England’s Western border.
6) Pembrokeshire has been an Anglo-Norman outpost since the early twelfth century. Indeed, the earls of Pembroke were crucial in the Norman conquest of Ireland. To suggest it is a bastion of Welsh identity is completely nonsensical.
A fairly bright fourteen year old doing Eduqas History would have known more than her. But then, it is Unherd. Intelligence not encouraged.
Some more esoteric US polling to consider this evening. The daily IBD/TIPP poll has Biden up 50-45 in a 4-corner race. There's a Rasmussen poll from North Carolina showing Trump ahead 48-47 which is unsurprising in extremis.
Good to see some less well-polled states having a run out and to start with the hyper-marginal swing states of Kansas and Oklahoma. Trump won Kansas by 21 last time but a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump leading 48-41 so that's a 7-point swing to the Democrats which if repeated nationally would be a massive Biden landslide.
I've commented here before Biden might be piling up "useless" votes in Red states and I suspect he will achieve swings in some of these states above the national figure. Off then to Oklahoma which Trump won by 36 last time - the lead now is 22 so that's another 7% swing which is interesting.
https://www.news9.com/story/5f90b311788f4939f00759e5/news-9news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-inhofe-leads-broyles-by-20-points-in-us-senate-race
If you knew the 7% swing was uniform you'd back Biden all the way to a landslide but we know (or suspect) it isn't and relying on national numbers which might mask a disproportionate swing where it will do Biden no good and a less than optimal swing where he needs it lends a note of caution.
California is the East Ham of America - to be honest, that's where the similarity stops. No one is going to confuse Plaistow for Palm Springs or Manor Park for Malibu but in electoral terms it's solid for one team. Biden leads 58-32 which is a small swing of 2% to Donald Trump on 2016.
One or two Trump optimists thought they might flip Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016 but a Washington Post poll has Biden ahead by 11 so a 3% swing to the Democrat challenger.
Thus do we start to see the profile for this election which can be read in five parts:
1) Strong Democrat states - no swing or a small swing to the Republicans.
2) Weak Democrat states - small swings (2-4%) to Biden.
3) Marginal states - with a couple of exceptions, very small movements but probably enough in the weakest to flip them.
4) Weak Republican states - small swings to Biden to make him a challenger in places like Arizona, Iowa, Georgia and Ohio but perfectly possible Trump will hold all four or lose all four.
5) Strong Republican states - larger swings to Biden but nowhere near enough to challenge the Republicans.
Clinton failed because instead of pushing for votes where she needed them she piled them up where she didn't.
My map remains unchanged tonight.
A problem is that there isn't much British electoral appetite for centrism. Centrists are important as they tend to be floating voters, but parties that define themselves as centrists don't seem to prosper. So the battle is usually defined as between left and right, and people don't jump easily from one to the other. An underlying positive for Labour at the moment is that centrists find Starmer quite appealing, while leftists are tired of losing and ready to give him a chance. But there's not much Con-Lab (or Lab-Con) switching.
(Yet.)