I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
Approximately 20% increase on same day last week I think? Usual caveats on reporting day applies but still seems to be plateauing.
Hope so. What's with the big increase in cases/sample date on Monday though?
Back dating.
Always ignore the reporting day numbers. They are not comparable across weeks in the way people think they are.
There is no excuse since specimen dates are now available on the dashboard.
Sorry, but I think you're wrong about this. Look again at the dashboard. The 7-day average curve for cases by date reported is damn near identical to the curve for cases by specimen date, except for recent days where the data for cases by specimen date are incomplete. This shows that the 7-day average figure for cases by date reported is actually a good predictor for the final cases by specimen date figure, so it really doesn't make sense to ignore the cases by date reported figure if you're interested in the current situation.
More precisely, I think, Reported Date figures avoid giving the false impression that cases have dropped off in recent days, when it only (and normally) indicates missing data. However when there IS a change in the trend you will pick it up earlier with Specimen Date figures as Reported Date data is lagged.
I don't think reported date does that - because the variable "weekend shadow" changes from week to week. Reported cases *can* get squeezed into a few days of the week.
The statistical approach of trying to correct for the reporting cycle only works if people are not trying to change it. So unless you have primary data on *that*, you risk adding another layer of distortion, not correction.
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
Rayner using unparliamentary language is not fine, but neither is using "humbug", which in essence is claiming a lie, which is also unparliamentary.
Hmmmmm......
I am being forthright You are being unparliamentry He/She/etc is inciting violence
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
Disclaimer - I liked that post before you praised me in an edit. I am not quite so shallow as to like posts which highlight my brilliance.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
And with the long-term trend for party memberships to get smaller and smaller and less and less representative of anyone but themselves, that's an increasing problem.
The huge Labour membership increase under Corbyn has largely stuck - my CLP is about 10% off the peak, with some far left members drifting off and some centrists coming in. It's still, I think, the largest party in Western Europe. The members don't necessarily pick the best candidates, but they're not really a handful of hacks.
A problem is that there isn't much British electoral appetite for centrism. Centrists are important as they tend to be floating voters, but parties that define themselves as centrists don't seem to prosper. So the battle is usually defined as between left and right, and people don't jump easily from one to the other. An underlying positive for Labour at the moment is that centrists find Starmer quite appealing, while leftists are tired of losing and ready to give him a chance. But there's not much Con-Lab (or Lab-Con) switching. (Yet.)
I expect the Con-Lab switching to take off when the economic mess becomes more important to people than the identity/culture/brexit war stuff.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
Rayner using unparliamentary language is not fine, but neither is using "humbug", which in essence is claiming a lie, which is also unparliamentary.
Hmmmmm......
I am being forthright You are being unparliamentry He/She/etc is inciting violence
OK, I accept what Rayner said to Mr Clarkson was pretty well as bad as it can get. I am not defending Rayner. Perhaps her language was so unacceptable that Mr Clarkson has every right to demand Starmer sack her.
Good luck with that, bearing in mind what it takes for Johnson to demand a resignation.
Remember when we used to joke about Corbynonomics leading to bog roll shortages and shops only selling essential goods like Venezuela in 3-4 years time.....
'And yes, then there’s the hypocrisy of Rayner’s energetic supporters on the left. Suddenly these people are interested in freedom of speech. Suddenly these people who agitate for the silencing of ‘TERFs’ and the No Platforming of right-wingers are posing as civil libertarians and chastising the right for behaving like snowflakes in response to a mere word from Rayner. They must think we have short memories. Who can forget the crazy meltdown many of these same people had when Boris Johnson used the word humbug in the Commons last year in response to a Labour MP who said Boris’s use of the phrase ‘Surrender Act’ to describe anti-No Deal legislation was ‘dangerous’? The response was insane. So Boris saying ‘humbug’ is bad and could even plunge Britain into political violence, but Rayner saying ‘scum’ is fine? Make your minds up, leftists.'
Rayner using unparliamentary language is not fine, but neither is using "humbug", which in essence is claiming a lie, which is also unparliamentary.
Hmmmmm......
I am being forthright You are being unparliamentry He/She/etc is inciting violence
OK, I accept what Rayner said to Mr Clarkson was pretty well as bad as it can get. I am not defending Rayner. Perhaps her language was so unacceptable that Mr Clarkson has every right to demand Starmer sack her.
Good luck with that, bearing in mind what it takes for Johnson to demand a resignation.
The logic seems to be that, because small independent shops have to close, the supermarkets won't be able to steal their market share. To ensure a level playing field of want, I suppose.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
The logic seems to be that, because small independent shops have to close, the supermarkets won't be able to steal their market share. To ensure a level playing field of want, I suppose.
Also to discourage people from hacing shopping outings, for clothes etc.?
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
He has. Nevertheless the article’s purpose, after you wade through all the faux history, is to posit the suggestion that after a United Ireland and Scottish Independence, Welsh Independence then becomes inevitable. You don’t need to be spot on with the ancient history to be able to consider to what extent this conclusion has merit.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
I would happily vote for Essex to be independent. And Kent, for that matter.
People probably have a very poor idea of the historic boundaries of administrative units though, and so what might make sense now of course. Despite the provocative title I found this piece interesting on the operation of the various Welsh kingdoms back in the day, and where their remit did not run at the time.
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
He has. Nevertheless the article’s purpose, after you wade through all the faux history, is to posit the suggestion that after a United Ireland and Scottish Independence, Welsh Independence then becomes inevitable. You don’t need to be spot on with the ancient history to be able to consider to what extent this conclusion has merit.
No. You need to have some dim understanding of the facts though, and she doesn’t. Not only her knowledge of history but her knowledge of contemporary Wales is zero. It’s as embarrassing as that article on Bullshit for Scotland claiming the Supreme Court had no power over the Court of Sessions.
That's based on the average Biden lead for the six states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ) - Michigan has a Biden lead of 7.8%, so a 2.5% swing would mean he wouldn't win Michigan, and wouldn't win the election.
Then there's the problem that it's RCP - 538 has Biden's lead higher in every state, from 0.3 (MI, AZ) to 2 (WI). Gogin by 538, 2.5% swing would fail to net PA or WI for Trump, in addition to MI.
And then - given that '2.5% swingback' could be taken as 'polls being wrong by' - bear in mind that it could go the other way,and Ohio (Trump lead 0.8) and Texas (Trump +0.6) could fall to Biden.
There were a lot of defectors in the last Parliament but they all seem to have unaccountably misplaced their passes so they are no longer present.
Their fate, to a man and woman, will make any MP with a mortgage pause for a Parliament or two yet. Eventually some will become deluded enough to think we give a damn what they think , once again, but it will take a while.
That’s the nub of the matter. Those defectors that stood again all did badly.
The days when someone like Dick Taverne could win re-election by taking a principled stand are long gone, it would seem. Sad, really. Voters seem happy to vote for whatever idiot of their chosen colour a handful of aged party hacks chooses to put before them.
And with the long-term trend for party memberships to get smaller and smaller and less and less representative of anyone but themselves, that's an increasing problem.
The huge Labour membership increase under Corbyn has largely stuck - my CLP is about 10% off the peak, with some far left members drifting off and some centrists coming in. It's still, I think, the largest party in Western Europe. The members don't necessarily pick the best candidates, but they're not really a handful of hacks.
A problem is that there isn't much British electoral appetite for centrism. Centrists are important as they tend to be floating voters, but parties that define themselves as centrists don't seem to prosper. So the battle is usually defined as between left and right, and people don't jump easily from one to the other. An underlying positive for Labour at the moment is that centrists find Starmer quite appealing, while leftists are tired of losing and ready to give him a chance. But there's not much Con-Lab (or Lab-Con) switching. (Yet.)
Who says parties that define themselves as centrists dont seem to prosper?
They won 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 (easy as all main parties centrist in that one) and arguably 2015. They werent represented by one of the two major parties in the 2017 or 2019 elections.
Minor parties dont do well in our electoral system. Centrist parties when within Labour or the Conservatives have an excellent electoral record. If it comes to hard right vs hard left, hard right will win every time in England and probably in the UK.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
Didn;t Dear Leader Drakeford and co toy with the idea of binning the 2021 elections? Would not surprise me at all if he tried.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
Possibly, except there is one quite large blond elephant in the room, and he is called Boris.
It all depends I suppose if we celebrate Christmas 2020 and you don't, or vice-versa.
Boris Johnson and his chief scientific adviser have admitted to failings in England’s £12bn test-and-trace system as contact-tracing fell to a new low and waiting times for test results soared to almost double the target.
Under pressure to explain new figures showing less than 60% of close contacts being reached, while test turnaround times rose to nearly 48 hours, the prime minister said: “I share people’s frustrations and I understand totally why we do need to see faster turnaround times and we need to improve it.”
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
Didn;t Dear Leader Drakeford and co toy with the idea of binning the 2021 elections? Would not surprise me at all if he tried.
Poor as Drakeford is, I would keep hold of your money for the moment at least.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
Possibly, except there is one quite large blond elephant in the room, and he is called Boris.
It all depends I suppose if we celebrate Christmas 2020 and you don't, or vice-versa.
That’s why I thought their chance had gone.
But with Drakeford in charge behaving like this...
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
The unpalatable truth (if we're eating dubious supermarket sandwiches) is many people actively support and want "lockdowns" or at least proper enforcement of existing restrictions.
That is the problem.
The current regime of restrictions does work (there's growing evidence of that in the north) but it needs proper enforcement and we're not talking about an armed police officer in every corner shop or tube station (that's a shade draconian even for this liberal authoritarian) but a recognition from business it has a role to play in enforcing the law of the land.
Of course we know some businesses are happy to flout the law if it makes them money - selling booze and ciggies to underage children for example - but it cuts both ways. If you're going to employ security to prevent shoplifting then perhaps you should be using these people to enforce the law though as private property I assume they'd prefer to decide who they admit or with whom they wish to do business.
It's just depressing for those who are obeying the law to see those who are not able to go out their business with impunity.
As an aside, I'd be interested in the correlation between non mask wearing and fare evasion on public transport.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
You are expecting a government led by Boris Johnson to have plans?
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
Ah - my chance to post my Enoch Powell anecdote...
My first political act was to throw a crab-apple at Enoch Powell.
He was campaigning in the 1951 General Election in Wolverhampton. I was 8 years old. Powell's head was poking through the sun roof of a big black car - and he had a megaphone. I hadn't a clue who he was at the time - but a poster on the car said 'Conservative'. I was 'Labour' in the same way that I was 'Oxford' for the boat race. School kids just took sides based on nothing at all. So - I chucked my apple at him - and scarpered. Through the megaphone I heard him say, "and it's for the likes of children like him...." But I was round the corner and didn't hear the rest of what he was saying.
At the General Election of 1966 I was a counter for the Wolverhampton South West constituency. Sorting through the ballot papers I felt someone lean on my shoulders from behind. I turned. It was Enoch. He didn't say a word. I didn't say a word.
I rarely agreed with any of Enoch Powell's views - but he was an intriguing,perplexing and complex politician.
I'm not sure i even understand the argument about supermarkets not being able to sell clothes because they are "non-essential" and is unfair on smaller retailers having to clothes.
People buy clothes for two reasons:
1) to look good and 2) yes, because they are essential.
Nobody who is buying clothes to look good is going to go into a supermarket and buy something they don't like just because the independent retailer is shut for two weeks. They absolutely go in there to buy some underpants though. Which are apparently now deemed "non essential".
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
I fear -- very unfortunately -- the LibDems may increase their seats.
I had hoped we could continue with the successful eradication policy -- with only Kirsty left in her mouse-hole at Brecon & Radnorshire requiring rodenticide.
But, the implosion of all the UKIP-pers, Recklesses and BritNats must mean that there will be gains for all the rest, including the LibDems.
Perhaps not a revival, but I think a LibDem surge to 3 AMs may be possible. Sigh.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
Yes, you have a point.
People seem to assume the person they are talking to is definitely wrong and/or take on their weakest argument to score a cheap point. Not really a highbrow way of going about things, though the politicians are as bad.
People refusing to ever admit they were wrong/spinning doesn't help either
I'm not sure i even understand the argument about supermarkets not being able to sell clothes because they are "non-essential" and is unfair on smaller retailers having to clothes.
People buy clothes for two reasons:
1) to look good and 2) yes, because they are essential.
Nobody who is buying clothes to look good is going to go into a supermarket and buy something they don't like just because the independent retailer is shut for two weeks. They absolutely go in there to buy some underpants though. Which are apparently now deemed "non essential".
Drakeford maybe wishes all Welsh people to practice nudism.
I do hope however that he stays well covered himself. I do not think he would win any prizes for aesthetics in a nudist colony.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
Ah - my chance to post my Enoch Powell anecdote...
My first political act was to throw a crab-apple at Enoch Powell.
He was campaigning in the 1951 General Election in Wolverhampton. I was 8 years old. Powell's head was poking through the sun roof of a big black car - and he had a megaphone. I hadn't a clue who he was at the time - but a poster on the car said 'Conservative'. I was 'Labour' in the same way that I was 'Oxford' for the boat race. School kids just took sides based on nothing at all. So - I chucked my apple at him - and scarpered. Through the megaphone I heard him say, "and it's for the likes of children like him...." But I was round the corner and didn't hear the rest of what he was saying.
At the General Election of 1966 I was a counter for the Wolverhampton South West constituency. Sorting through the ballot papers I felt someone lean on my shoulders from behind. I turned. It was Enoch. He didn't say a word. I didn't say a word.
I rarely agreed with any of Enoch Powell's views - but he was an intriguing,perplexing and complex politician.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
Possibly, except there is one quite large blond elephant in the room, and he is called Boris.
It all depends I suppose if we celebrate Christmas 2020 and you don't, or vice-versa.
That’s why I thought their chance had gone.
But with Drakeford in charge behaving like this...
Anecdotally speaking the two week lockdown seems less unpopular here than it is in England. That said, the people I mix with are over 55 and have a vested interest in self imposed house arrest.
Boris Johnson and his chief scientific adviser have admitted to failings in England’s £12bn test-and-trace system as contact-tracing fell to a new low and waiting times for test results soared to almost double the target.
Under pressure to explain new figures showing less than 60% of close contacts being reached, while test turnaround times rose to nearly 48 hours, the prime minister said: “I share people’s frustrations and I understand totally why we do need to see faster turnaround times and we need to improve it.”
Yes, this was the big take away from today's press conference - almost a recognition that test. trace, isolate is in a mess. As Vallance pointed out, it's much harder to repair it now the numbers are so high. They had the chance to get it right in July/August, but failed.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Re point 3, I'm actually a bit of a mask sceptic myself - the evidence for is still weak, but given the more or less total lack of evidence against, I support mask use as a pragmatic, most likely to be helpful approach. What I and I think others react to are posts claiming that correlation between mask use and covid incidence (itself selectively chosen) suggests masks are harmful when a more likely direction of causation is the other way - countries that are harder hit introduce more measures and countries that really want to loosen lockdowns look for other alternatives.
The Welsh govt trying to bankrupt supermarkets? How the hell do you even determine what is “essential”?
Presumably the same rules as last time. If you are closing other shops, it is kind of unreasonable that supermarkets can carry on selling the same things. I doubt it will be much enforced. One thing is sure, supermarkets won't be bankrupted. They have done very well out of the epidemic. Other shops not so much.
Boris really should tough out the traffic light system....
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
I am starting to wonder if I should dust off my article on Tories - most seats at the Sennedd elections next year. I honestly thought their window of opportunity had gone, but with Plaid in the doldrums, the Lib Dems and UKIP both dead in Wales, Farage out of the picture and Labour energetically self destructing I am just thinking they could surprise faute de mieux.
I fear -- very unfortunately -- the LibDems may increase their seats.
I had hoped we could continue with the successful eradication policy -- with only Kirsty left in her mouse-hole at Brecon & Radnorshire requiring rodenticide.
But, the implosion of all the UKIP-pers, Recklesses and BritNats must mean that there will be gains for all the rest, including the LibDems.
Perhaps not a revival, but I think a LibDem surge to 3 AMs may be possible. Sigh.
Looking at their votes and where they are falling, I’m not sure I agree.
In fact, I think they might score one again, but this time on the list in Mid Wales with Williams losing her seat.
Do you realise that 75% of Welsh Liberal Democrat voters have left the party over the last 15 years? That’s an incredible figure. To put it in context, that’s a steeper fall in vote share than Labour have suffered in Scotland.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
Its partly the wash over from twitter but I also wonder whether some people on here have very big stakes on Trump losing and losing very badly.
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
Its partly the wash over from twitter but I also wonder whether some people on here have very big stakes on Trump losing and losing very badly.
I'm not sure i even understand the argument about supermarkets not being able to sell clothes because they are "non-essential" and is unfair on smaller retailers having to clothes.
People buy clothes for two reasons:
1) to look good and 2) yes, because they are essential.
Nobody who is buying clothes to look good is going to go into a supermarket and buy something they don't like just because the independent retailer is shut for two weeks. They absolutely go in there to buy some underpants though. Which are apparently now deemed "non essential".
Judging by the fiasco at Easter, Halloween branded chocolate will be seen as a law breaking luxury whereas your traditional Dairy Milk or Mars Bar is fine. I guess Hotel Chocolat is a luxury but where would Green & Blacks sit?
We really need to get these details right, its not like we have a pandemic, global crash and Brexit to deal with.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
My suggestion would be this, assuming the country is still in a critical situation. No parties and no work Christmas dos. But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
Apparently 15 groups of 6 each booking a table in the same venue at the same time and all eating from the same set menu is completely different to 90 people attending a wedding reception.
Boris Johnson and his chief scientific adviser have admitted to failings in England’s £12bn test-and-trace system as contact-tracing fell to a new low and waiting times for test results soared to almost double the target.
Under pressure to explain new figures showing less than 60% of close contacts being reached, while test turnaround times rose to nearly 48 hours, the prime minister said: “I share people’s frustrations and I understand totally why we do need to see faster turnaround times and we need to improve it.”
I wish the Government would announce what the plan is for Christmas. Obviously everyone is going to ignore any restrictions anyway so it would be good for the Government to acknowledge this fact and declare that people can see each other on Christmas Day so we can plan.
My suggestion would be this, assuming the country is still in a critical situation. No parties and no work Christmas dos. But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
Just give everyone 4 days off from all restrictions from Santa.
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
Will you really need to buy a T-shirt in the next two weeks?
That's based on the average Biden lead for the six states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ) - Michigan has a Biden lead of 7.8%, so a 2.5% swing would mean he wouldn't win Michigan, and wouldn't win the election.
Then there's the problem that it's RCP - 538 has Biden's lead higher in every state, from 0.3 (MI, AZ) to 2 (WI). Gogin by 538, 2.5% swing would fail to net PA or WI for Trump, in addition to MI.
And then - given that '2.5% swingback' could be taken as 'polls being wrong by' - bear in mind that it could go the other way,and Ohio (Trump lead 0.8) and Texas (Trump +0.6) could fall to Biden.
Plus, focusing on the "battleground states" can miss movements elsewhere.
If you'd done a Battleground States in 2016, it would have been:
Nevada Colorado Florida Pennsylvania Virginia
(No Wisconsin or Michigan in there...)
This time around Trump could hold two of the three battleground states but end up losing something else that people didn't see coming. (Or, conversely, Biden could grab the three Midwestern states and yet lose Nevada.)
The supermarkets in Wales should shut their doors tomorrow. They'll make back the sales in subsequent days, once the Welsh govt immediately do a reverse ferret, so it's probably the sane business decision.
Or there’s this thing called the internet. Amazingly it exists west of Offa’s dike.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
What if your T shirt order is stopped at the border?
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
I'm not sure i even understand the argument about supermarkets not being able to sell clothes because they are "non-essential" and is unfair on smaller retailers having to clothes.
People buy clothes for two reasons:
1) to look good and 2) yes, because they are essential.
Nobody who is buying clothes to look good is going to go into a supermarket and buy something they don't like just because the independent retailer is shut for two weeks. They absolutely go in there to buy some underpants though. Which are apparently now deemed "non essential".
Drakeford maybe wishes all Welsh people to practice nudism.
I do hope however that he stays well covered himself. I do not think he would win any prizes for aesthetics in a nudist colony.
Don't! The gated entrance to the footpath that takes naturists to the nudist beach (accessed down a sheer cliff face by ladder) is on my walk to the woods (I kid you not). The cars parked on the verge numbered 35 at the peak of lockdown one, so if Drakeford were to make naturism mandatory there would be plenty of willing takers.
The Welsh govt trying to bankrupt supermarkets? How the hell do you even determine what is “essential”?
Presumably the same rules as last time. If you are closing other shops, it is kind of unreasonable that supermarkets can carry on selling the same things. I doubt it will be much enforced. One thing is sure, supermarkets won't be bankrupted. They have done very well out of the epidemic. Other shops not so much.
It's not the same rules as last time though, is it? Last time the rules were defined by shop type. Once you were allowed to open you could sell whatever you want.
I accept i was being a bit hyperbolic about the financial health of supermarkets
Some more esoteric US polling to consider this evening. The daily IBD/TIPP poll has Biden up 50-45 in a 4-corner race. There's a Rasmussen poll from North Carolina showing Trump ahead 48-47 which is unsurprising in extremis.
Good to see some less well-polled states having a run out and to start with the hyper-marginal swing states of Kansas and Oklahoma. Trump won Kansas by 21 last time but a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump leading 48-41 so that's a 7-point swing to the Democrats which if repeated nationally would be a massive Biden landslide.
I've commented here before Biden might be piling up "useless" votes in Red states and I suspect he will achieve swings in some of these states above the national figure. Off then to Oklahoma which Trump won by 36 last time - the lead now is 22 so that's another 7% swing which is interesting.
If you knew the 7% swing was uniform you'd back Biden all the way to a landslide but we know (or suspect) it isn't and relying on national numbers which might mask a disproportionate swing where it will do Biden no good and a less than optimal swing where he needs it lends a note of caution.
California is the East Ham of America - to be honest, that's where the similarity stops. No one is going to confuse Plaistow for Palm Springs or Manor Park for Malibu but in electoral terms it's solid for one team. Biden leads 58-32 which is a small swing of 2% to Donald Trump on 2016.
One or two Trump optimists thought they might flip Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016 but a Washington Post poll has Biden ahead by 11 so a 3% swing to the Democrat challenger.
Thus do we start to see the profile for this election which can be read in five parts:
1) Strong Democrat states - no swing or a small swing to the Republicans. 2) Weak Democrat states - small swings (2-4%) to Biden. 3) Marginal states - with a couple of exceptions, very small movements but probably enough in the weakest to flip them. 4) Weak Republican states - small swings to Biden to make him a challenger in places like Arizona, Iowa, Georgia and Ohio but perfectly possible Trump will hold all four or lose all four. 5) Strong Republican states - larger swings to Biden but nowhere near enough to challenge the Republicans.
Clinton failed because instead of pushing for votes where she needed them she piled them up where she didn't.
My map remains unchanged tonight.
Thanks for your as always thoughtful analysis, stodge. I'd agree with most of that, but for the key one, 3). I think there has clearly been a swing of 3-4% in MI, WI and PA to Biden, not 'very small movements'
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance. 2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump. 3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious) 4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures. 5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable. 6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Admitting we were both right?!
I just think that PB has become a bit intolerant and instead of discussion there is dismissal .
Ah - my chance to post my Enoch Powell anecdote...
My first political act was to throw a crab-apple at Enoch Powell.
He was campaigning in the 1951 General Election in Wolverhampton. I was 8 years old. Powell's head was poking through the sun roof of a big black car - and he had a megaphone. I hadn't a clue who he was at the time - but a poster on the car said 'Conservative'. I was 'Labour' in the same way that I was 'Oxford' for the boat race. School kids just took sides based on nothing at all. So - I chucked my apple at him - and scarpered. Through the megaphone I heard him say, "and it's for the likes of children like him...." But I was round the corner and didn't hear the rest of what he was saying.
At the General Election of 1966 I was a counter for the Wolverhampton South West constituency. Sorting through the ballot papers I felt someone lean on my shoulders from behind. I turned. It was Enoch. He didn't say a word. I didn't say a word.
I rarely agreed with any of Enoch Powell's views - but he was an intriguing,perplexing and complex politician.
My partner was for a while in the 1980s a Labour councillor for a ward in Wolverhampton SW constituency, which was then still a safe Tory seat. On the morning after she was elected a couple of old ladies passed her in the street. One whispered to her: "We voted for you - because we liked your father." That was strange, because her father lived in South Wales. Then the penny dropped. She shared a surname with the former Conservative MP.
Comments
The statement that Pembrokeshire is a hotbed of Welsh nationalism is enough to tell us already that the article is written by someone who lives in London.
A LibDem who lives in London.
EDIT. Ah, I see YDoethur has done a proper hatchet job on its amateurishness.
The statistical approach of trying to correct for the reporting cycle only works if people are not trying to change it. So unless you have primary data on *that*, you risk adding another layer of distortion, not correction.
I am being forthright
You are being unparliamentry
He/She/etc is inciting violence
(Straws, clutched.)
1. Thinking Donald Trump might be in with a chance.
2. Thinking there are valid reasons for over a hundred million Americans to vote for Donald Trump.
3. Thinking masks may be some kind of cause of Covid case increases (particularly egregious)
4. Thinking the government should at some point worry about the cost of its Coronavirus measures.
5. Thinking the lockdown as it stands is not sensible or desirable.
6. There's probably another one involving @isam and Enoch Powell.
Good luck with that, bearing in mind what it takes for Johnson to demand a resignation.
Or as it is also known, integrity and ability.
Does he support empty shelves at the supermarket a la East Germany or not?
BBC News - Coronavirus: France extends overnight curfew as cases surge
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54646533
The sun rises in the East.
Day follows night.
Etc.
Somebody make it stop.
There are very few supermarkets in most of Wales.
When people in my town want a grand day out at the supermarket, they have to get on a bus that takes them to Wrexham fifty miles to the east.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d92742eb-77f8-468c-815a-6823765a2ed8
Covid was the clear front running reason for voting by 4 points over the economy.
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us10222020_udxf16.pdf
Biden leads 51-41;
Buying an iPad from a Tesco Extra to watch Netflix? Luxury.
Buying an iPad from a Tesco Extra so the kids can do their schoolwork? Essential.
It's a very daft idea on the part of the Welsh government.
Wales suddenly looks like a giant sh8t sandwich Starmer is going to have to chew on.....
Then there's the problem that it's RCP - 538 has Biden's lead higher in every state, from 0.3 (MI, AZ) to 2 (WI). Gogin by 538, 2.5% swing would fail to net PA or WI for Trump, in addition to MI.
And then - given that '2.5% swingback' could be taken as 'polls being wrong by' - bear in mind that it could go the other way,and Ohio (Trump lead 0.8) and Texas (Trump +0.6) could fall to Biden.
They won 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 (easy as all main parties centrist in that one) and arguably 2015. They werent represented by one of the two major parties in the 2017 or 2019 elections.
Minor parties dont do well in our electoral system. Centrist parties when within Labour or the Conservatives have an excellent electoral record. If it comes to hard right vs hard left, hard right will win every time in England and probably in the UK.
It all depends I suppose if we celebrate Christmas 2020 and you don't, or vice-versa.
Under pressure to explain new figures showing less than 60% of close contacts being reached, while test turnaround times rose to nearly 48 hours, the prime minister said: “I share people’s frustrations and I understand totally why we do need to see faster turnaround times and we need to improve it.”
https://tinyurl.com/y2fjrokt
It is a true story about my home town -- a treat for the children is a grand shopping trip to the Asda in Wrexham.
Of course, if you live in the Vale of Glamorgan, there are supermarkets.
But with Drakeford in charge behaving like this...
That is the problem.
The current regime of restrictions does work (there's growing evidence of that in the north) but it needs proper enforcement and we're not talking about an armed police officer in every corner shop or tube station (that's a shade draconian even for this liberal authoritarian) but a recognition from business it has a role to play in enforcing the law of the land.
Of course we know some businesses are happy to flout the law if it makes them money - selling booze and ciggies to underage children for example - but it cuts both ways. If you're going to employ security to prevent shoplifting then perhaps you should be using these people to enforce the law though as private property I assume they'd prefer to decide who they admit or with whom they wish to do business.
It's just depressing for those who are obeying the law to see those who are not able to go out their business with impunity.
As an aside, I'd be interested in the correlation between non mask wearing and fare evasion on public transport.
My first political act was to throw a crab-apple at Enoch Powell.
He was campaigning in the 1951 General Election in Wolverhampton. I was 8 years old.
Powell's head was poking through the sun roof of a big black car - and he had a megaphone.
I hadn't a clue who he was at the time - but a poster on the car said 'Conservative'.
I was 'Labour' in the same way that I was 'Oxford' for the boat race.
School kids just took sides based on nothing at all.
So - I chucked my apple at him - and scarpered.
Through the megaphone I heard him say, "and it's for the likes of children like him...."
But I was round the corner and didn't hear the rest of what he was saying.
At the General Election of 1966 I was a counter for the Wolverhampton South West constituency.
Sorting through the ballot papers I felt someone lean on my shoulders from behind.
I turned. It was Enoch.
He didn't say a word. I didn't say a word.
I rarely agreed with any of Enoch Powell's views - but he was an intriguing,perplexing and complex politician.
People buy clothes for two reasons:
1) to look good and
2) yes, because they are essential.
Nobody who is buying clothes to look good is going to go into a supermarket and buy something they don't like just because the independent retailer is shut for two weeks. They absolutely go in there to buy some underpants though. Which are apparently now deemed "non essential".
I had hoped we could continue with the successful eradication policy -- with only Kirsty left in her mouse-hole at Brecon & Radnorshire requiring rodenticide.
But, the implosion of all the UKIP-pers, Recklesses and BritNats must mean that there will be gains for all the rest, including the LibDems.
Perhaps not a revival, but I think a LibDem surge to 3 AMs may be possible. Sigh.
People seem to assume the person they are talking to is definitely wrong and/or take on their weakest argument to score a cheap point. Not really a highbrow way of going about things, though the politicians are as bad.
People refusing to ever admit they were wrong/spinning doesn't help either
I do hope however that he stays well covered himself. I do not think he would win any prizes for aesthetics in a nudist colony.
I would score test/trace/isolate as follows:
Testing volumes: 8/10
Testing turnaround times: 3/10
Tracing contacts: 2/10
Ensuring isolation: 1/10.
A pretty poor scorecard, and the source of many of our problems. Well done Dido and Serco.
In fact, I think they might score one again, but this time on the list in Mid Wales with Williams losing her seat.
Do you realise that 75% of Welsh Liberal Democrat voters have left the party over the last 15 years? That’s an incredible figure. To put it in context, that’s a steeper fall in vote share than Labour have suffered in Scotland.
We really need to get these details right, its not like we have a pandemic, global crash and Brexit to deal with.
I’ve had time for Drakeford with Covid as, in common with other leaders, there’s no “right” answer. Just a choice of bad ones.
Now Wales got off to a bad start with testing in the Spring but didn’t do badly after that, and I had sympathy with stopping Tier 3ers from England travelling to Wales willy nilly when Cardiff had decided to close areas down in health grounds.
But deeming supermarkets can only sell “essential” goods? Barking. Plain barking. If I need a t shirt in the next two weeks of national lockdown, and Sainsbury’s a mile away can’t sell me one, because commissar Drakeford says it offends his sensibilities, what am I going to do? Well I’m going to go on line and send my money outside of Wales to buy one.
Just face palm.
No parties and no work Christmas dos.
But you are allowed to travel to a direct family member's house for Christmas, it could be for a few hours or a couple of weeks, but you can only visit one house. Direct family means parents, grand parents, great granny, grandchildren etc. but not aunts/uncles or cousins. Inlaws or partner's family is also allowed.
I think that would be a compromise that many people would accept in a time of lockdown.
That would appear to be a 'work around'.
If you'd done a Battleground States in 2016, it would have been:
Nevada
Colorado
Florida
Pennsylvania
Virginia
(No Wisconsin or Michigan in there...)
This time around Trump could hold two of the three battleground states but end up losing something else that people didn't see coming. (Or, conversely, Biden could grab the three Midwestern states and yet lose Nevada.)
Its a bit like the Russia jeans thing in the 1970s and 1980s.
I accept i was being a bit hyperbolic about the financial health of supermarkets