A Berlin court has suspended an order for bars and restaurants to close from 11pm to 6am after finding that 'it was not apparent' such a measure could help fight coronavirus.
I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."
Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?
Surely it's double or triple blind. How would he/she know?
Yes, that's what's puzzling me. Just someone speculating, perhaps.
The reaction of GBP/EUR is quite informative. The immediate drop of half a cent in less than a minute on Boris's announcement tells us who is (more) fucked if there is no deal. The subsequent rapid rebound tells us how seriously Boris's statements should be taken.
The reaction of GBP/EUR is quite informative. The immediate drop of half a cent in less than a minute on Boris's announcement tells us who is (more) fucked if there is no deal. The subsequent rapid rebound tells us how seriously Boris's statements should be taken.
Sterling falling doesn't make us fucked it makes our exporters more competitive. So our exporters may face some tariffs but the exchange rate change cancels that out.
On the other hand EU exporters to the UK face the double whammy of a currency fluctuation and tariffs too.
POEUWAS.
You're a walking case study in cognitive dissonance.
Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right
So is ballet, but look how offended people got about the very notion of retraining to get a better paid and more productive job.
It is curious example of British snobbery, which disdains all practical/computing/engineering skills.
We are paying the price for this foolishness with gradual national impoverishment.
The subtext of the criticism is that a job in cyber is ... somehow dirty & low-grade & inferior ... compared to a job in ballet.
And the subtext of the ad is that a job in cyber is superior to one in ballet. That one should abandon one's addle-headed dreams of spreading a little joy in this grim world with your beauty, Grace and skill in return for a larger, regular pay cheque from the man. National wealth in terms of pure pounds and pence. Wonderful!
Absolute, ludicrous, impoverishing nonsense.
A computer program can be just as graceful & skilful as a piece of ballet. A career in technology or engineering is just as creative and just as satisfying a career in the arts.
There is no implication in the advertisement that Fatima is being forced to abandon her dreams.
She should follow her dreams ... and the advert is saying her dreams could be in tech.
I'm afraid we aren't going to see eye to eye on this one. Seldom do you pack a theatre to admire some coding. And if her dreams are in tech she hasn't dressed for it. Satisfying is in the eye of the beholder. If everyone's dream was to earn the biggest possible pay cheque society was be impoverished at a frightening rate. There'd be nobody to teach kids for just a start. Indeed there'd be no one to teach Fatima.
Sorry, I have not mentioned Fatima's pay cheque. I have stressed her creativity & satisfaction from a career in tech.
(And we are all meant to be encouraging women/BAME to move into science & engineering where they are grossly under-represented.)
When I talk about poverty, I mean NATIONAL impoverishment, not her personal pay check.
A country that disdains technology in the way that you apparently do will soon end up very poor.
Just how many PBers have been injured by DA's dangerous driving?
I've just bought an ex-Benelux Porsche Cup car that I'm going to try to get road "legal" so stand by. If I tweak the ECU so it will rev to 8,800rpm (Cup cars only go to 8.5 as standard, 300rpm less than the road cars) and take the wing off I think it will do 200mph.
Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.
Like when the EU said they would not and could not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, until they did.
There are always some Belgian communists holding up the deal until there's a deal. I don't know why EU negotiations are always like this, it's bloody tedious watching the two sides playing these games.
They love to go to extra-time. I suppose because the German's back themselves in the penalty shoot out.
I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."
Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?
Surely it's double or triple blind. How would he/she know?
Yes, that's what's puzzling me. Just someone speculating, perhaps.
Someone just giving a personal optimistic view probably, possibly for reassurance?
The head of UK Vaccine taskforce was on the radio and said it was possible but unlikely that there would be approval for vaccines in 2020. It seems a safe bet that there wont be mass vaccinations by Christmas, and plausible but unlikely that they start around then.
I didn't say that sterling falling makes us fucked; I said that it tells us who (of the two parties involved) is more fucked. Currencies rise on good news and fall on bad news. The fact that GBP fell tells us that the markets consider Boris's announcement to be bad news for the UK rather than good news.
Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.
Like when the EU said they would not and could not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, until they did.
There are always some Belgian communists holding up the deal until there's a deal. I don't know why EU negotiations are always like this, it's bloody tedious watching the two sides playing these games.
They love to go to extra-time. I suppose because the German's back themselves in the penalty shoot out.
So that's how Brexit ends... Boris Johnson waddling up to kick the final penalty into the crowd.
A Berlin court has suspended an order for bars and restaurants to close from 11pm to 6am after finding that 'it was not apparent' such a measure could help fight coronavirus.
I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."
Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?
I'm not a pharma person so feel free to ignore me but it can go very very well for 99.9% of people but, if the last 0.1% have very nasty and delayed reactions, then the whole gig is off.
I wouldn't get excited until they've comprehensively finished trials and given sufficient time (months?) for all possible secondary and tertiary symptoms to be explored.
So I very much doubt it will be before Christmas.
[PS. However, I am sure Oxford are doing very well - the very thorough and massive Russian fake news operation against it (as reported in the Times today) is very good evidence of that.]
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
Well given the data hasn't been unlocked yet (as revealed by the head of the Oxford Vaccine trial this week), the academics don't know if it is working, let alone a volunteer.
I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."
Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?
I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."
Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?
I'm not a pharma person so feel free to ignore me but it can go very very well for 99.9% of people but, if the last 0.1% have very nasty and delayed reactions, then the whole gig is off.
I wouldn't get excited until they've comprehensively finished trials and given sufficient time (months?) for all possible secondary and tertiary symptoms to be explored.
So I very much doubt it will be before Christmas.
[PS. However, I am sure Oxford are doing very well - the very thorough and massive Russian fake news operation against it (as reported in the Times today) is very good evidence of that.]
Back in about 1991 or so my lips turned blue around 15 minutes after receiving the BCG ? jab. Recovered about 10 minutes later. It was perhaps a very short lived vaccine reaction.
Just how many PBers have been injured by DA's dangerous driving?
I've just bought an ex-Benelux Porsche Cup car that I'm going to try to get road "legal" so stand by. If I tweak the ECU so it will rev to 8,800rpm (Cup cars only go to 8.5 as standard, 300rpm less than the road cars) and take the wing off I think it will do 200mph.
You do whatever you feel is right; I'm still basking in the glory that you think I have a "wet weather" bike.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
The whole Brexit process ought to be postponed while we deal with Covid-19. Trying to cope with both at the same time is ridiculous.
No, not really. The EU won't change their rules. The UK (under its current management) won't accept a deal that doesn't involve the EU changing their rules. So just get on with it. Ideally we should have been out in June 2018.
Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
The whole Brexit process ought to be postponed while we deal with Covid-19. Trying to cope with both at the same time is ridiculous.
No, not really. The EU won't change their rules. The UK (under its current management) won't accept a deal that doesn't involve the EU changing their rules. So just get on with it. Ideally we should have been out in June 2018.
Exactly. Covid makes it all the more important to get it over and done with ASAP, then we can move on.
Just how many PBers have been injured by DA's dangerous driving?
I've just bought an ex-Benelux Porsche Cup car that I'm going to try to get road "legal" so stand by. If I tweak the ECU so it will rev to 8,800rpm (Cup cars only go to 8.5 as standard, 300rpm less than the road cars) and take the wing off I think it will do 200mph.
You do whatever you feel is right; I'm still basking in the glory that you think I have a "wet weather" bike.
Yep. Those national speed limits are optional if you don't really fancy it.
Well given the data hasn't been unlocked yet (as revealed by the head of the Oxford Vaccine trial this week), the academics don't know if it is working, let alone a volunteer.
Well the volunteers aren't dropping like flies, so that's surely a plus.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
All that middle class tax base that was thinking do I need to live in London now that WFH is going great, just got another reason to bugger off.
Nope. Londoners will see the changes. Will blame Khan for personally imposing them. Will vote in Shaun Bailey. Will sweep back into town for a celebratory Curry night special in Spoons.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.
Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.
We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.
Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...
When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.
Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.
I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....
*Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.
As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
No. Do I need to explain this slower to you?
Comparing the same set of countries - developed of thirty years ago, versus the same set of developed countries today, the sclerotic EU is going backwards not forwards.
That's not comparing the EU against developing nations, but developed ones. Like for like.
Though if your argument now is that wither a country is an EU member ir not has only a marginal impact that would be a reason not to be one.
Not slower, you need to make a start. The proposition you make is -
EU membership has materially reduced the growth of its constituent member states.
Go for it.
OK here we go: Developed EU member states have declined relative to developed non-EU members.
That means either the EU is a drag on its members states, in which case we're right to leave. Or it means that EU membership is inconsequential to growth, in which case we're not wrong to leave.
Which do you think it is? Heads I win, tails you lose.
Either is a false inference. To provide some evidence for the proposition you need to show that for most countries in the EU (and particularly the UK) there has been a decline in economic performance relative to most other economically comparable countries outside the EU as compared to their performance against those same comparable countries before they (the EU countries) joined the EU. There are 2 relativities there and neither can be ignored. I predict you will not be able to do this. Which means we must fall back on an intuitive answer to the question, "Does being a member of the largest frictionless free trade bloc in the world on balance help or hinder growth?"
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Just how many PBers have been injured by DA's dangerous driving?
I've just bought an ex-Benelux Porsche Cup car that I'm going to try to get road "legal" so stand by. If I tweak the ECU so it will rev to 8,800rpm (Cup cars only go to 8.5 as standard, 300rpm less than the road cars) and take the wing off I think it will do 200mph.
You do whatever you feel is right; I'm still basking in the glory that you think I have a "wet weather" bike.
Yep. Those national speed limits are optional if you don't really fancy it.
I would say that is the case. I'm sure you don't always obey the speed limit.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
All that middle class tax base that was thinking do I need to live in London now that WFH is going great, just got another reason to bugger off.
Indeed. Central London housing market starting to see some big drops the last month, 20-30% to get it sold, partly made worse by the cladding issue. Asking prices back to 2017 generally, some back to 2013 prices. And this is all before much unemployment and Brexit kick in.
Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right
The ONS weights different parts of the economy to derive its GDP figures.
Currently the whole of agriculture, forestry and fishing have a weight of 6 out of 1000.
This is compared with manufacturing which has a weight of 101, construction 64 and business services and finance which has a weight of 332. In total the services have a weighting of 790.
So services are significantly more than 100 times more important for GDP than fishing.
Harrods employs more people than the entire UK fishing industry.
Nevertheless the latter is important for a number of remote coastal communities.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.
Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.
We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.
Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...
When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.
Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.
I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....
*Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.
As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
No. Do I need to explain this slower to you?
Comparing the same set of countries - developed of thirty years ago, versus the same set of developed countries today, the sclerotic EU is going backwards not forwards.
That's not comparing the EU against developing nations, but developed ones. Like for like.
Though if your argument now is that wither a country is an EU member ir not has only a marginal impact that would be a reason not to be one.
Not slower, you need to make a start. The proposition you make is -
EU membership has materially reduced the growth of its constituent member states.
Go for it.
OK here we go: Developed EU member states have declined relative to developed non-EU members.
That means either the EU is a drag on its members states, in which case we're right to leave. Or it means that EU membership is inconsequential to growth, in which case we're not wrong to leave.
Which do you think it is? Heads I win, tails you lose.
Either is a false inference. To provide some evidence for the proposition you need to show that for most countries in the EU (and particularly the UK) there has been a decline in economic performance relative to most other economically comparable countries outside the EU as compared to their performance against those same comparable countries before they (the EU countries) joined the EU. There are 2 relativities there and neither can be ignored. I predict you will not be able to do this. Which means we must fall back on an intuitive answer to the question, "Does being a member of the largest frictionless free trade bloc in the world on balance help or hinder growth?"
I've done that. Look at the UK, French, German etc growth rates since 1993 relative to the growth of eg Canada, Australia, New Zealand, USA etc
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
All that middle class tax base that was thinking do I need to live in London now that WFH is going great, just got another reason to bugger off.
Nope. Londoners will see the changes. Will blame Khan for personally imposing them. Will vote in Shaun Bailey. Will sweep back into town for a celebratory Curry night special in Spoons.
I would very much like them to do that, even the curry in Spoons because I am heavily green on Shaun Bailey. So yes please.
Oh and all best wishes to you on navigating through life. When it all seems oppressive there's nothing better than arguing with @Philip_Thompson about one or other of his patently absurd propositions to bring normality back into the world.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
Just how many PBers have been injured by DA's dangerous driving?
I've just bought an ex-Benelux Porsche Cup car that I'm going to try to get road "legal" so stand by. If I tweak the ECU so it will rev to 8,800rpm (Cup cars only go to 8.5 as standard, 300rpm less than the road cars) and take the wing off I think it will do 200mph.
Please let us know at which HMP you wind up at, we can write.
Meanwhile in the US... Trump and the GOP really do seem to be heading towards the shellacking of the century. The number of Republican stalwarts, from Cindy McCain to the daughter of the increasingly embattled Rudy Guiliani are coming out for Biden. So the question is if AZ, FL, MI, WI etc are all flipping, where does it stop? SC is still in the likely Republican column, but it doesn`t look that likely to me.
I am very cautious of FL and AZ flipping. Az looks more likely of the 2 as Biden's lead has been amazingly stable at around 4 points , FL is seeing a constant yet moving lead, he has pulled a bit of a lead out but with news of a greater number of republicans registering to vote makes me nervous of that lead.
As with everything this election I dont think we are going to see anything to greatly affect the polls as so far nothing has, with the exception of Trump getting covid moved the polls 2-3 points towards Biden nationally. There might be a tightening as undecided break to trump but there are a lot less this time round. We could see GA and NC fall to Biden but in my head they will be tight Trump wins
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
All that middle class tax base that was thinking do I need to live in London now that WFH is going great, just got another reason to bugger off.
Nope. Londoners will see the changes. Will blame Khan for personally imposing them. Will vote in Shaun Bailey. Will sweep back into town for a celebratory Curry night special in Spoons.
I would very much like them to do that, even the curry in Spoons because I am heavily green on Shaun Bailey. So yes please.
Oh and all best wishes to you on navigating through life. When it all seems oppressive there's nothing better than arguing with @Philip_Thompson about one or other of his patently absurd propositions to bring normality back into the world.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
Boris said in the House of Commons that the EU could 'go whistle' for that money. What happened?
On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.
1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).
That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.
2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;
3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout
Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:
1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.
2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.
It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
This is done. I'm considering selling all I possess and laying Trump at 2.98. Going to be discussing that with my wife this afternoon. I have points in the bank from erecting a wardrobe recently.
There is a bit of 2.18 on Biden available of BF`s "Electoral College Vote H'cap - 100.5" market.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
Legally there was never any link between the money and a future trade deal. We could have tried to default on it, but that would have had consequences, and would have been the first item on the list of any future negotiation with the EU, so in practice it would never have been a useful card.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
Boris said in the House of Commons that the EU could 'go whistle' for that money. What happened?
I have no idea...in my view this was the biggest mistake that could lead to no deal. The money should have been part of the negotiation for a trade deal.
Now the EU have got the money they have no real incentive to compromise on anything.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
EU refused to negotiate any trade deal prior to the exit finances being nailed down. May accepted this in the end.
The financial side, at least, should have been clarified either prior to the referendum or a confirmatory referendum should have been held once the financial implications were known.
Brexit was supposed to save us money - it`s going to cost us a bloody fortune.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
Personally I would be demanding the overpaid tube drivers take a massive pay cut
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
Boris said in the House of Commons that the EU could 'go whistle' for that money. What happened?
I have no idea...in my view this was the biggest mistake that could lead to no deal. The money should have been part of the negotiation for a trade deal.
Now the EU have got the money they have no real incentive to compromise on anything.
That's just not true. The EU have multiple reasons to compromise.
On fisheries - the EU want access to our waters. If there is no deal, the EU don't get any access at all.
On the level playing field - the EU want us to commit to something. If there is no deal, we don't commit to anything at all.
The EU are bluffing, because if we walk away they get nothing. They're going for a maximalist position but if we stand firm they have no choice but to accept they're not getting what they wanted anyway.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
I'm getting sick of these people punishing anyone who doesn't vote for them, it's disgusting.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
This is the sort of crap that lower tiers of local government have put up with for years, under both Labour and Tory government. “You only get the extra money if you do X,Y,Z just as we want it done”. Central government trying to overreach into the detail of London congestion charging is just the same mentality applied on a bigger stage.
This country badly needs a decentralisation of power (as the virus crisis has actually underlined), yet no-one who ever makes such promises ever seems to deliver.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
EU refused to negotiate any trade deal prior to the exit finances being nailed down. May accepted this in the end.
The financial side, at least, should have been clarified either prior to the referendum or a confirmatory referendum should have been held once the financial implications were known.
Brexit was supposed to save us money - it`s going to cost us a bloody fortune.
Ah so it was May and not Boris that agreed to that.
We're heading to no deal, so what does it matter if the EU refused to negotiate? At least we would have saved £50bn to offset everything else.
They've barely negotiated anyway, just given a list of demands that they will never back down on (including telling us what tax rate we're allowed FFS).
The scale of Biden's win will mirror that of Reagan over Carter, not in terms of the electoral college (at least, I don't think so) but in terms of the popular vote.
It will be a crushing defeat for the one-term Trump team.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
Owe them for what? Paying in a fortune for 40 years whilst getting no share of the assets that the money was spent on.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
Personally I would be demanding the overpaid tube drivers take a massive pay cut
They certainly should do that, but even if they worked for free it would be a drop in the ocean compared to what is needed, or what this proposal would raise.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
Owe them for what? Paying in a fortune for 40 years whilst getting no share of the assets that the money was spent on.
We should have told them to stick it.
What is the outcome you wanted from Brexit and how do you think it would have been negotiable?
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
Owe them for what? Paying in a fortune for 40 years whilst getting no share of the assets that the money was spent on.
We should have told them to stick it.
Pensions etc - to be fair to the EU they're right to expect us to settle up on that and we were right to agree to it. That's one thing I've never objected to and some of that money will be going to UK citizens.
But its not accurate to say that Brexit cost us that. That's money we already owed and would have had to pay had we remained too.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
All that middle class tax base that was thinking do I need to live in London now that WFH is going great, just got another reason to bugger off.
Nope. Londoners will see the changes. Will blame Khan for personally imposing them. Will vote in Shaun Bailey. Will sweep back into town for a celebratory Curry night special in Spoons.
I would very much like them to do that, even the curry in Spoons because I am heavily green on Shaun Bailey. So yes please.
Oh and all best wishes to you on navigating through life. When it all seems oppressive there's nothing better than arguing with @Philip_Thompson about one or other of his patently absurd propositions to bring normality back into the world.
What kind of price(s) tempted you to back Bailey?
I actually can't remember. I will need to look on bf. I topped up after Rory entered the race.
*pause - looks on bf*
I see that I am no longer green on him - did they void the original bets after the postponement??
He is now at 4.1 which doesn't hugely thrill me tbh.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
Boris said in the House of Commons that the EU could 'go whistle' for that money. What happened?
I have no idea...in my view this was the biggest mistake that could lead to no deal. The money should have been part of the negotiation for a trade deal.
Now the EU have got the money they have no real incentive to compromise on anything.
That's just not true. The EU have multiple reasons to compromise.
On fisheries - the EU want access to our waters. If there is no deal, the EU don't get any access at all.
On the level playing field - the EU want us to commit to something. If there is no deal, we don't commit to anything at all.
The EU are bluffing, because if we walk away they get nothing. They're going for a maximalist position but if we stand firm they have no choice but to accept they're not getting what they wanted anyway.
The EU doesn't care about the damage done to member states because of no deal, why would they? They only care about the EU, which is why having the £50bn for the EU as a bargaining chip was so important.
If they EU actually cared about the economy of the countries in it they would agree to a Canada style deal with the UK straight away.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
I'm getting sick of these people punishing anyone who doesn't vote for them, it's disgusting.
Once Scotland leaves, the independence for London campaign will take off.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
Personally I would be demanding the overpaid tube drivers take a massive pay cut
I'm personally surprised HMG haven't done that. Lack of imagination.
C-charge extension and fares rise would be quite popular within TfL. Kahn has to be seen to put up a fight of course, and can then claim victory when he gets a compromise deal (but still play victim when campaigning).
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
Owe them for what? Paying in a fortune for 40 years whilst getting no share of the assets that the money was spent on.
We should have told them to stick it.
Pensions etc - to be fair to the EU they're right to expect us to settle up on that and we were right to agree to it. That's one thing I've never objected to and some of that money will be going to UK citizens.
But its not accurate to say that Brexit cost us that. That's money we already owed and would have had to pay had we remained too.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.
Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.
We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.
Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...
When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.
Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.
I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....
*Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.
As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
No. Do I need to explain this slower to you?
Comparing the same set of countries - developed of thirty years ago, versus the same set of developed countries today, the sclerotic EU is going backwards not forwards.
That's not comparing the EU against developing nations, but developed ones. Like for like.
Though if your argument now is that wither a country is an EU member ir not has only a marginal impact that would be a reason not to be one.
Not slower, you need to make a start. The proposition you make is -
EU membership has materially reduced the growth of its constituent member states.
Go for it.
OK here we go: Developed EU member states have declined relative to developed non-EU members.
That means either the EU is a drag on its members states, in which case we're right to leave. Or it means that EU membership is inconsequential to growth, in which case we're not wrong to leave.
Which do you think it is? Heads I win, tails you lose.
Either is a false inference. To provide some evidence for the proposition you need to show that for most countries in the EU (and particularly the UK) there has been a decline in economic performance relative to most other economically comparable countries outside the EU as compared to their performance against those same comparable countries before they (the EU countries) joined the EU. There are 2 relativities there and neither can be ignored. I predict you will not be able to do this. Which means we must fall back on an intuitive answer to the question, "Does being a member of the largest frictionless free trade bloc in the world on balance help or hinder growth?"
I've done that. Look at the UK, French, German etc growth rates since 1993 relative to the growth of eg Canada, Australia, New Zealand, USA etc
It's not really a valid comparison because your comparators are sparsely populated new world settler colonies who have experienced higher rates of both natural population growth and immigration. On a per capita basis EU growth rates have been the same as the average for all advanced economies since 1993, a lot better than Switzerland and Japan, a bit better than Canada, and a bit worse than the US, Australia and New Zealand. Some countries in the EU have certainly lagged, but others have done very well.
The toddler has had his tantrum and after throwing his toys out of the pram the negotiations continue next week . I admire the EUs patience with the spoilt brat.
So the threat to walk away hasn't happened. @Philip_Thompson presumably you oppose this?
It has happened, he's said prepare for an Australia style deal. Did you miss that?
"Boris Johnson has not walked away from trade talks - but says the EU must change direction to save them."
I'm not sure who you are quoting but the quote was if we didn't have a deal by 15 October we would prepare for an Australian style trade arrangements.
The 15th October came, the EU made their statement and now Boris has said we are preparing for an Australian style trade arrangements. Exactly as he'd said.
Of course the door isn't closed if the EU want to come begging for a new deal, but he never said it would be.
So the threat to walk away hasn't happened. @Philip_Thompson presumably you oppose this?
It has happened, he's said prepare for an Australia style deal. Did you miss that?
"Boris Johnson has not walked away from trade talks - but says the EU must change direction to save them."
I'm not sure who you are quoting but the quote was if we didn't have a deal by 15 October we would prepare for an Australian style trade arrangements.
The 15th October came, the EU made their statement and now Boris has said we are preparing for an Australian style trade arrangements. Exactly as he'd said.
Of course the door isn't closed if the EU want to come begging for a new deal, but he never said it would be.
BBC News.
You've got to be on the wind up.
The EU come begging us for a deal? Hahahahaha.
Why are we still having talks if Johnson has walked away? Answer: he hasn't.
Your sycophantic support for anything he says or does is just depressing.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
I'm getting sick of these people punishing anyone who doesn't vote for them, it's disgusting.
Once Scotland leaves, the independence for London campaign will take off.
Absolutely, we're paying for everything already and then they want us to pay £15 a day just to have a car. Seriously, they can fuck the fuck right off.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.
Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.
We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.
Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...
When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.
Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.
I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....
*Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.
As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
No. Do I need to explain this slower to you?
Comparing the same set of countries - developed of thirty years ago, versus the same set of developed countries today, the sclerotic EU is going backwards not forwards.
That's not comparing the EU against developing nations, but developed ones. Like for like.
Though if your argument now is that wither a country is an EU member ir not has only a marginal impact that would be a reason not to be one.
Not slower, you need to make a start. The proposition you make is -
EU membership has materially reduced the growth of its constituent member states.
Go for it.
OK here we go: Developed EU member states have declined relative to developed non-EU members.
That means either the EU is a drag on its members states, in which case we're right to leave. Or it means that EU membership is inconsequential to growth, in which case we're not wrong to leave.
Which do you think it is? Heads I win, tails you lose.
Either is a false inference. To provide some evidence for the proposition you need to show that for most countries in the EU (and particularly the UK) there has been a decline in economic performance relative to most other economically comparable countries outside the EU as compared to their performance against those same comparable countries before they (the EU countries) joined the EU. There are 2 relativities there and neither can be ignored. I predict you will not be able to do this. Which means we must fall back on an intuitive answer to the question, "Does being a member of the largest frictionless free trade bloc in the world on balance help or hinder growth?"
I've done that. Look at the UK, French, German etc growth rates since 1993 relative to the growth of eg Canada, Australia, New Zealand, USA etc
It's not really a valid comparison because your comparators are sparsely populated new world settler colonies who have experienced higher rates of both natural population growth and immigration. On a per capita basis EU growth rates have been the same as the average for all advanced economies since 1993, a lot better than Switzerland and Japan, a bit better than Canada, and a bit worse than the US, Australia and New Zealand. Some countries in the EU have certainly lagged, but others have done very well.
I'm glad you accept per capita is the only right metric to use, I wholeheartedly agree with you.
But I'm talking on a per capita basis too, since its the only valid one to use. On a per capita basis the EU has done worse.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
Owe them for what? Paying in a fortune for 40 years whilst getting no share of the assets that the money was spent on.
We should have told them to stick it.
What is the outcome you wanted from Brexit and how do you think it would have been negotiable?
I wanted to leave the EU and be able to have control of the country back in the hands of the politicians we can vote for. So that includes being able to decide tax rates and decide who has access to the fishing waters.
Also I wanted to have a reasonable relationship with the EU after and a trade deal like Canada, which apparently is impossible for some unknown reason.
Meanwhile in the US... Trump and the GOP really do seem to be heading towards the shellacking of the century. The number of Republican stalwarts, from Cindy McCain to the daughter of the increasingly embattled Rudy Guiliani are coming out for Biden. So the question is if AZ, FL, MI, WI etc are all flipping, where does it stop? SC is still in the likely Republican column, but it doesn`t look that likely to me.
I am very cautious of FL and AZ flipping. Az looks more likely of the 2 as Biden's lead has been amazingly stable at around 4 points , FL is seeing a constant yet moving lead, he has pulled a bit of a lead out but with news of a greater number of republicans registering to vote makes me nervous of that lead.
As with everything this election I dont think we are going to see anything to greatly affect the polls as so far nothing has, with the exception of Trump getting covid moved the polls 2-3 points towards Biden nationally. There might be a tightening as undecided break to trump but there are a lot less this time round. We could see GA and NC fall to Biden but in my head they will be tight Trump wins
To different sets of voters. In Arizona, Biden's chances depend on the Hispanic turnout (and also vote switching), which looks quite likely. In Florida, I think it's going to about changes in seniors' votes.
I have a bit of money on Arizona; haven't been tempted by the Florida odds.
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
Owe them for what? Paying in a fortune for 40 years whilst getting no share of the assets that the money was spent on.
We should have told them to stick it.
Pensions etc - to be fair to the EU they're right to expect us to settle up on that and we were right to agree to it. That's one thing I've never objected to and some of that money will be going to UK citizens.
But its not accurate to say that Brexit cost us that. That's money we already owed and would have had to pay had we remained too.
£50bn on pensions? Really?
You would have thought someone with such strong views on the EU might have followed the bombardment of news over the last few years and have some understanding of what the exit bill was about and how it worked. It is legally binding but of course we could try and renege on the outstanding balance. If we did we would still pay it eventually and it would make us poorer, but make some Brexiteers feel temporarily better.
The number is £33bn not £50bn, of which £9bn is the 2020 contribution, which we have had all the benefit of.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
I'm getting sick of these people punishing anyone who doesn't vote for them, it's disgusting.
Once Scotland leaves, the independence for London campaign will take off.
On what grounds? There is not even a London independence party and the London economy depends on commuters coming from the Home Counties which has currently dried up.
Though of course a UK free of Scotland and London would see almost permanent Tory rule
On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.
1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).
That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.
2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;
3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout
Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:
1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.
2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.
It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
This is done. I'm considering selling all I possess and laying Trump at 2.98. Going to be discussing that with my wife this afternoon. I have points in the bank from erecting a wardrobe recently.
There is a bit of 2.18 on Biden available of BF`s "Electoral College Vote H'cap - 100.5" market.
I have a feeling high stakes gambling is not for me. I have £xy (i.e. double figures) on Biden at 5/6, and a sell on him at 320 EC votes to hedge that.
So the threat to walk away hasn't happened. @Philip_Thompson presumably you oppose this?
It has happened, he's said prepare for an Australia style deal. Did you miss that?
"Boris Johnson has not walked away from trade talks - but says the EU must change direction to save them."
I'm not sure who you are quoting but the quote was if we didn't have a deal by 15 October we would prepare for an Australian style trade arrangements.
The 15th October came, the EU made their statement and now Boris has said we are preparing for an Australian style trade arrangements. Exactly as he'd said.
Of course the door isn't closed if the EU want to come begging for a new deal, but he never said it would be.
BBC News.
You've got to be on the wind up.
The EU come begging us for a deal? Hahahahaha.
Why are we still having talks if Johnson has walked away? Answer: he hasn't.
Your sycophantic support for anything he says or does is just depressing.
Absolutely the EU come begging us for a deal.
The EU made a dramatic point last night about removing the idea they were "intensifying" trade talks from their statement and said the UK would have to move.
The UK has said "OK Australia it is then, since we're not moving, but you can still come to us if you want to".
The EU have then said they're coming to London to "intensify" talks, the one thing they said yesterday they weren't going to do.
The EU knows they're the weaker party here. The French know it too. If we go Australia they have zero fish and zero level playing field. They have to move not us.
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
£15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
I'm getting sick of these people punishing anyone who doesn't vote for them, it's disgusting.
Once Scotland leaves, the independence for London campaign will take off.
On what grounds? There is not even a London independence party and the London economy depends on commuters coming from the Home Counties which has currently dried up.
Though of course a UK free of Scotland and London would see almost permanent Tory rule
Same as Scotland, ignored, very different to the rest of the country, different values and priorities.
The scale of Biden's win will mirror that of Reagan over Carter, not in terms of the electoral college (at least, I don't think so) but in terms of the popular vote.
It will be a crushing defeat for the one-term Trump team.
It won't, Biden may match Reagan's 1980 vote but then there was a significant third party vote with Anderson so I expect Trump to poll higher than Carter
If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?
Anyone?
I think we`ve paid some and are scheduled to pay more in tranches. It`s released us from EU obligations so I guess it`s not correct to say "sod all in return". Though I see what you are getting at. It`s not entitled us to a Canada-style deal even, it seems.
Thanks. So we've given away a large part of our main bargaining chip without getting any closer to a trade deal or anything else we wanted, what a monumental cock up. The EU would be much more willing to negotiate if they had a £50bn shaped hole in their finances looming with no deal.
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
The money has nothing to do with deals it’s what we owe
Owe them for what? Paying in a fortune for 40 years whilst getting no share of the assets that the money was spent on.
We should have told them to stick it.
What is the outcome you wanted from Brexit and how do you think it would have been negotiable?
I wanted to leave the EU and be able to have control of the country back in the hands of the politicians we can vote for. So that includes being able to decide tax rates and decide who has access to the fishing waters.
Also I wanted to have a reasonable relationship with the EU after and a trade deal like Canada, which apparently is impossible for some unknown reason.
What would be the first measure you would enact with this control?
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8847125/Berlin-court-overturns-order-shut-Berlins-bars-restaurants-11pm.html
And the fanbois lapped it up...
(And we are all meant to be encouraging women/BAME to move into science & engineering where they are grossly under-represented.)
When I talk about poverty, I mean NATIONAL impoverishment, not her personal pay check.
A country that disdains technology in the way that you apparently do will soon end up very poor.
The head of UK Vaccine taskforce was on the radio and said it was possible but unlikely that there would be approval for vaccines in 2020. It seems a safe bet that there wont be mass vaccinations by Christmas, and plausible but unlikely that they start around then.
I wouldn't get excited until they've comprehensively finished trials and given sufficient time (months?) for all possible secondary and tertiary symptoms to be explored.
So I very much doubt it will be before Christmas.
[PS. However, I am sure Oxford are doing very well - the very thorough and massive Russian fake news operation against it (as reported in the Times today) is very good evidence of that.]
"TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel
Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8847025/London-Tube-train-bus-staff-told-prepare-total-SHUTDOWN.html
https://twitter.com/movement46/status/1317076329104277504
There are 2 people who really, really, really want to believe him...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMlfxnCJppE&feature=youtu.be
http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN89951424
But, no, it doesn't make much sense for a volunteer to be hearing anything that is at all reliable.
The EU won't change their rules.
The UK (under its current management) won't accept a deal that doesn't involve the EU changing their rules.
So just get on with it.
Ideally we should have been out in June 2018.
As evidenced by our attempts to resile from it.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1317062968748634113?s=20
Nevertheless the latter is important for a number of remote coastal communities.
Oh and all best wishes to you on navigating through life. When it all seems oppressive there's nothing better than arguing with @Philip_Thompson about one or other of his patently absurd propositions to bring normality back into the world.
As with everything this election I dont think we are going to see anything to greatly affect the polls as so far nothing has, with the exception of Trump getting covid moved the polls 2-3 points towards Biden nationally. There might be a tightening as undecided break to trump but there are a lot less this time round. We could see GA and NC fall to Biden but in my head they will be tight Trump wins
We shouldn't have given them a penny.
At least we will save some of it with no deal or have we caved on that as well?
Now the EU have got the money they have no real incentive to compromise on anything.
And the Dems will take the Senate.
The financial side, at least, should have been clarified either prior to the referendum or a confirmatory referendum should have been held once the financial implications were known.
Brexit was supposed to save us money - it`s going to cost us a bloody fortune.
On fisheries - the EU want access to our waters. If there is no deal, the EU don't get any access at all.
On the level playing field - the EU want us to commit to something. If there is no deal, we don't commit to anything at all.
The EU are bluffing, because if we walk away they get nothing. They're going for a maximalist position but if we stand firm they have no choice but to accept they're not getting what they wanted anyway.
This country badly needs a decentralisation of power (as the virus crisis has actually underlined), yet no-one who ever makes such promises ever seems to deliver.
We're heading to no deal, so what does it matter if the EU refused to negotiate? At least we would have saved £50bn to offset everything else.
They've barely negotiated anyway, just given a list of demands that they will never back down on (including telling us what tax rate we're allowed FFS).
It will be a crushing defeat for the one-term Trump team.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidential_election
We should have told them to stick it.
But its not accurate to say that Brexit cost us that. That's money we already owed and would have had to pay had we remained too.
*pause - looks on bf*
I see that I am no longer green on him - did they void the original bets after the postponement??
He is now at 4.1 which doesn't hugely thrill me tbh.
If they EU actually cared about the economy of the countries in it they would agree to a Canada style deal with the UK straight away.
C-charge extension and fares rise would be quite popular within TfL. Kahn has to be seen to put up a fight of course, and can then claim victory when he gets a compromise deal (but still play victim when campaigning).
"Boris Johnson has not walked away from trade talks - but says the EU must change direction to save them."
Johnson 29 (0)
Keir 35 (+2)
The 15th October came, the EU made their statement and now Boris has said we are preparing for an Australian style trade arrangements. Exactly as he'd said.
Of course the door isn't closed if the EU want to come begging for a new deal, but he never said it would be.
You've got to be on the wind up.
The EU come begging us for a deal? Hahahahaha.
Why are we still having talks if Johnson has walked away? Answer: he hasn't.
Your sycophantic support for anything he says or does is just depressing.
But I'm talking on a per capita basis too, since its the only valid one to use. On a per capita basis the EU has done worse.
Also I wanted to have a reasonable relationship with the EU after and a trade deal like Canada, which apparently is impossible for some unknown reason.
In Arizona, Biden's chances depend on the Hispanic turnout (and also vote switching), which looks quite likely.
In Florida, I think it's going to about changes in seniors' votes.
I have a bit of money on Arizona; haven't been tempted by the Florida odds.
The number is £33bn not £50bn, of which £9bn is the 2020 contribution, which we have had all the benefit of.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8039/
Though of course a UK free of Scotland and London would see almost permanent Tory rule
I have £xy (i.e. double figures) on Biden at 5/6, and a sell on him at 320 EC votes to hedge that.
The EU made a dramatic point last night about removing the idea they were "intensifying" trade talks from their statement and said the UK would have to move.
The UK has said "OK Australia it is then, since we're not moving, but you can still come to us if you want to".
The EU have then said they're coming to London to "intensify" talks, the one thing they said yesterday they weren't going to do.
The EU knows they're the weaker party here. The French know it too. If we go Australia they have zero fish and zero level playing field. They have to move not us.