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The existing electoral advantages that LAB has are magnified in a 4 party system. Ukip’s rise lowers the bar for EdM twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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First?
Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote20130 -
This won't please the tea party tories.
Prepare for a whine-athon or Squirrel!!
LOL ;^ )0 -
The Tories need a leader who can form an electoral pact with UKIP so they stand down in Lib/Con and Lab/Con marginals and an instruction for their supporters to vote Tory in these seats to ensure they get an EU referendum. I don't think they would sign such a deal with Cameron in charge of the Tories, and without such a deal the party may as well write off 2015 and 2020 while right wing voters learn how to vote tactically.0
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I disagree, Mike. A four-point lead over the Tories is a pathetic position for Labour at this stage of the electoral cycle. Even if UKIP's vote doesn't collapse completely, it's likely to drop somewhat in a general election with the Tories being the main beneficiaries, which means it could even be argued that the underlying position at the moment is a small Tory lead.
Until a few weeks ago I concurred with the conventional wisdom that Labour were likely to win because of the electoral system - not anymore.0 -
Further to my comment, I think Priti Patel would be a good leadership candidate for this, she is already a heavy Eurosceptic and she neutralises the whole "racist Tories" idea the left love to use.
(I would also make out like a bandit if she becomes party leader!)0 -
"As the extent of Labour’s thoroughly underwhelming day becomes clear, Ed’s friends are turning on him. George Eaton at the Staggers encapsulates the feeling:
“After a troubled month, which saw the first hints of a Tory recovery since the 2012 Budget, Ed Miliband needed a strong set of results to give him some political breathing space. But while far from disastrous, his party’s performance will only revive the question: why isn’t Labour doing better? Its main centre-left challenger is locked in government with a right-wing Conservative Party, the economy has barely grown since 2010 and the Tory brand has been comprehensively retoxified. Yet Labour still appears incapable of generating popular enthusiasm among those who should be embracing it. Rather than assuaging Miliband’s malaise, today’s results will only deepen it.”... http://order-order.com/2013/05/03/reality-dawns-for-eds-friends/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+guidofawkes+(Guy+Fawkes'+blog+of+parliamentary+plots,+rumours+and+conspiracy)0 -
"It also, through the generous allowances that councillors now receive, produces an assured and regular income source."
Excuse my political naivety, but this is the first I've heard of councillors getting allowances. I understand expenses, but allowances? How generous are they?
And why should council tax payers be subsidising political parties?0 -
Please can some one post a link on here, showing where I can quickly find total votes cast for the parties in the local elections?0
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Hilarious. FPTP is obviously unfit for more than 2 parties and perverse when you get to 4 or more. No way are the Tories going to want to change it though. not until they've lost a few more general elections at least. Should have gone for AV.0
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http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/
Year on year changes to the vote share, Con -6, Lab -9, Lib -2. Labour are suffering as much as the Tories from UKIP's rise. I don't think you have it right Mike.0 -
Incidentally I've just seen Little Ed talking and he seems to have now taken on the some of the expressional characteristics of Reggie Perrin. Can anyone seriously ever imagine him as Prime Minister standing next to Obama's or his successor. it would be surreal.0
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29% is an incredibly low share for the main opposition in mid-term. Points to a hung parliament IMO.0
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I partly agree with Mr. Kelly. UKIP's rise is only possible because Labour, despite being the sole nationwide opposition party, is just not enthusing or even attracting all that many voters.
As for this making Labour's job easier or harder, we have no way of knowing that or even making an educated guess this far out. UKIP could have some loonybin councillors shich damage the party's reputation, or they could be competent in local government and boosted by the euro-elections.
If the Coalition proves more competent and in touch and Labour remains as is then a strong UKIP could become a default repository for those who would otherwise vote Labour. The reverse is also possible.
Most importantly, the election is still two years away, and a lot can change in that time. When people are voting in a General Election their behaviour could and probably will be significantly different.0 -
147 Maximum Break!Plato said:First?
Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote20130 -
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference last year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
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My point is that it doesn't matter. It's the margin between LAB and CON that's all important and here LAB has inbuilt advantages.MaxPB said:
http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/
Year on year changes to the vote share, Con -6, Lab -9, Lib -2. Labour are suffering as much as the Tories from UKIP's rise. I don't think you have it right Mike.0 -
They're paying councillors essentially, the allowances vary depending on the area, and moreso based on whether they're a cabinet member etc.Pong said:"It also, through the generous allowances that councillors now receive, produces an assured and regular income source."
Excuse my political naivety, but this is the first I've heard of councillors getting allowances. I understand expenses, but allowances? How generous are they?
And why should council tax payers be subsidising political parties?
I think £12,000 would be a ball park figure, but with a lot of variation. They're usually public so if you google you should be able to find a particular one.0 -
Re age and levels of education, how many in the over 60s age group actually had a real opportunity to have a sixth form or tertiary education?
I'm not sure that classifying UKIP supporters as old and under-educated is a very sensible label.0 -
Of course it is and of course little Ed is a seriously unimpressive and weak leader. However, the lib dems aren't just less popular than the BNP in South Shields, they also failed miserably to get AV. That means it's still FPTP and there is absolutely no sign of Cammie having the slightest idea of how to deal with the Kippers any more than he did when he called them loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists.JamesKelly said:I disagree, Mike. A four-point lead over the Tories is a pathetic position for Labour at this stage of the electoral cycle.
Banging on about Europe is only certain to make things worse yet watch and see how many tory MPs think that's a great idea now.
This result makes the coming tory split over Europe that much more tangible and inevitable.
It's going to happen whether it's before 2015 or after it.
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The thing is I amgine a true national PR voting system is far less attractive to all three establishment parties now that they face the possibility of having to share it with all those 'clowns, fruitcakes and closets racists'. After all imagine UKIP getting 23%. Thats 150 MP's or thereabouts0
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I did try to warn you James, but you were too intent on refuting Carlotta to listen.JamesKelly said:I disagree, Mike. A four-point lead over the Tories is a pathetic position for Labour at this stage of the electoral cycle. Even if UKIP's vote doesn't collapse completely, it's likely to drop somewhat in a general election with the Tories being the main beneficiaries, which means it could even be argued that the underlying position at the moment is a small Tory lead.
Until a few weeks ago I concurred with the conventional wisdom that Labour were likely to win because of the electoral system - not anymore.
I also suggested that a post-referendum SNP might well be needing a good reason to persuade its voters to return MPs to Westminster. A Cameron-Salmond (Sturgeon) deal on devo max with Cameron happy to leave government of the Scots by the SNP for the Scots might be just what is needed.
Don't let Carlotta lead you astray again, James. Pay due attention to the cousin of Seth.
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Oh there's a secret politicalbetting.com. Advertising and marketing Mr Smithson are not the evil of Habermas, but a useful means of sharing knowledge.
Re: UKIP. If I had known a result like this would have the three main parties so flummoxed, I would have been voting UKIP years ago. I fear though that UKIP will be soon meeting the forces of hell, unless Milliband and Clegg make the foolish judgement that my enemies enemy...0 -
Cousin of Seth, all I can do is repeat what I've been saying to you for...what, four years?
A deal with the Tories on Devo Max would be splendid. I would be all in favour of it. The snag is that the Tories aren't remotely interested in such a deal.0 -
This is the sort of article by an arrogant metrosexual metropolitan which IMO only serves to increase UKIP's support:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-wins-hearts-not-minds-8603066.html0 -
But it does it work on mobiles0
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In South Shields it looks like the LD vote fell 13% compared with a Tory fall of 10%.0
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Yes, because experience counts for little, life teaches us nothing. Much better to have a 21 yr old with a certificate than someone with grey hair.tim said:"Re age and levels of education, how many in the over 60s age group actually had a real opportunity to have a sixth form or tertiary education?"
Not many due to the grammar school system UKIP advocates0 -
Anyone making predictions for 2 years hence after yesterday is a fool.
The voters don't like or rate rEd - a la Kinnock - I wouldn't put stolen monopoly money on rEd becoming PM.
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The kippers have gone from 0-147 faster than Ronnie O'Sullivan!Plato said:First?
Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote2013
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I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties. It seems that the great British public does not like them or their policies and will vote for anything as an alternative. All three parties need to worry. Mid term looking like a hung parliament with a poor economy and incoherent government s not good for LabourMick_Pork said:This won't please the tea party tories.
Prepare for a whine-athon or Squirrel!!
LOL ;^ )0 -
Ha
TheUKIPWales
@ukipwales
Labour girl in the audience who tore into Diane James on Question Time comes third in Kent. UKIP win the seat.0 -
works a treat. Good Development Mr Smithsons.
AndyJS - That's the sort of article that would make me want to join UKIP, find that blokes Shoreditch regular, go round there wearing a tweed jacket and talk loudly about "bloody Bulgarians".
Just for the giggles.0 -
I thought the BBC projection had the Tories on 25% with the margin of 4% for Labour. Presumably that has a modest impact on the number of seats.
PS If Paul Maggs is about, I owe him a tenner (Dirty Dicks) for his comprehensive demolition of my kipper forecasts.
I'm rather relieved at the outcome: it could have been an awfully lot worse, and there's still all to play for in 2015.0 -
If you consider Cammie to be a lefty then you'd be right. Many kippers certainly think he is.foxinsoxuk said:
I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties.Mick_Pork said:This won't please the tea party tories.
Prepare for a whine-athon or Squirrel!!
LOL ;^ )
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Amy Rutland, the Labour supporter who railed against UKIP on Question Time, was heavily defeated in a Kent division:
Kent, Birchington & Villages:
UKIP 2,156 (47%)
Con 1,494 (32%)
Lab 649 (14%)
LD 315 (7%)
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2013/03/question-time-audience-member-slams-ukip-on-immigration-stats/0 -
Must be quite a few in the 60+ bracket who did not benefit from the expansion of univeristies in the 1960s. More will mean worse as Kingley Amis wrote in 1961...tim said:"Re age and levels of education, how many in the over 60s age group actually had a real opportunity to have a sixth form or tertiary education?"
Not many due to the grammar school system UKIP advocates
http://www.economist.com/node/12270990
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It's difficult to see genuine enthusiasm reflected in the Labour results today. Some success, certainly.
Rallings & Thrasher: CON -310, LAB+350, LD-130, UKIP+40
My own prediction: CON -330, LAB + 325, LD -130, UKIP +60
Result: CON-335, LAB+291, LD-124, UKIP+139.
It certainly doesn't look like UKIP's rise handed as many seats over to Labour (or, if it did, Labour won many seats for themselves) as I expected.0 -
Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.MaxPB said:The Tories need a leader who can form an electoral pact with UKIP so they stand down in Lib/Con and Lab/Con marginals and an instruction for their supporters to vote Tory in these seats to ensure they get an EU referendum. I don't think they would sign such a deal with Cameron in charge of the Tories, and without such a deal the party may as well write off 2015 and 2020 while right wing voters learn how to vote tactically.
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The changes in share of the vote from the 2010 general election, using the BBC's projection:
Lab -1%
Con -12%
UKIP +20%
LD -10%0 -
"I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties"
I can only speak for myself, but I'm not worried. As that famous Panelbase poll showed, if Scottish voters assume that the Tories are going to win the next election, then Yes jumps into the lead in the independence referendum.
I'm not entirely sure what has gone wrong for Labour over the last few weeks, but the direction of travel is unmistakable, and this result is even worse for them than I anticipated.0 -
I disagree. At this stage in the parliament, the country has had the opportunity to size Miliband up as a potential PM. They're not voting for him. There will be a swing back to the government parties as the election nears. If Labour cannot be more than 4% ahead at this point, Labour will not win. Compare and contrast with Blair in 1995 or Cameron in 2008.0
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Bloody brave of Mike to speak of EdM getting to Downing St. Who's to say UKIP won't now go on to break through the threshold? It's happened in Canada. It could easily happen here. They have lots on their side including Nigel Farage coming across, as SeanT says, as a thoroughly decent ordinary bloke.
Bloody hell that News at Six was like a ppb for UKIP - there was even a Lithuanian guy saying there's too many foreigners in Britain!!!0 -
Relying on Ukip to stop the Cons is why Labour will lose.
Unbelievable complacency.
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Other big loser from last night was of course Crosby and the tory press with their transparent last minute inept attacks on Farage and the Kippers.
We now know that kind of panic idiocy just won't cut it and is merely a variation on Cammie calling the kippers fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists. That the Mirror joined in won't fool anyone as to where the main co-ordinated attacks came from. Shapps is looking sheepish today for a reason.0 -
I love that Sam. Pity I can't signal, like.sam said:
The kippers have gone from 0-147 faster than Ronnie O'Sullivan!Plato said:First?
Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
after all results councillors: Con 1116 Lab 538 LD 353 UKIP 147 Grn 22 RA 12 MK 4 Lib 2 BNP 0 Ind 135 #Vote2013
So 147 seats and 139 gains. Not bad for us kippers.
£5 and kisses winging it's way to PtP.
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There will MPs and would be MPs in all three main parties who are thinking this evening "the party leadership is going to ruin my political career".
I remember a cartoon of the 1992 US presidential election - it had Bush, Clinton and Perot all standing on the third place podium.
Of course Bush I, Clinton and Perot were political titans compared to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband.
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Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.0
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The News Quiz is plumbing new depths re Lefty smuggery about Kippers - and frankly really offensive about Farage on a personal level.
I've switched it off.0 -
"Of course Bush I, Clinton and Perot were political titans compared to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband."
Louise Mensch is a political titan compared to Ross Perot.0 -
Well what an interesting election. The Eastern thing mentioned by Southam is stark. Finally it appears that the East Anglian rural white working class has found a home, having deserted Labour in the sixties. Here in the midlands (and, I suspect, the north) there is a very different demographic at work. This holds out a crumb of comfort for Labour.
Here in Shropshire, there was remarkably little change. A minor drift from the Tories to both Lab and LD in Shrewsbury, and a few Indies doing well at all points of the compass, but otherwise no real change. Most amazing thing for me was that in a decent sized market town - Whitchurch, with three seats across two divisions, the Tories were unopposed.0 -
UKIP will of course fall back in a General Election, when an actual choice has to be made as to the next government, rather than yesterday's largely cost-free protest vote. Who knows, perhaps some UKIP supporters might actually want a referendum on the EU, in which case they will vote Tory, although it's likely that this was only a minor part of the motivation of most UKIP voters yesterday.
Thus, the question is: will the near-inevitable drop-back from yesterday's UKIP vote share benefit one of the other parties more than another? To the extent that the UKIP vote share came mainly from grumbling Tories, then other things being equal, the drop back would benefit the Tories more compared with yesterday's projected national vote share.
However, the interesting question to me is whether other things are likely to be equal. Will former Labour, BNP, LibDem and NOTA protest voters of yesterday behave differently to former Conservative protest voters of yesterday, or will they all tend to go home to their respective 2010 behaviour in similar proportions ?
Dunno.
But that is probably the key to the next election.0 -
Chances are there will be another by-election for one reason or another before 2015 and if it does happen that's one opportunity for Farage to finally get an MP. Otherwise it's still FPTP and that's a high bar for any party to suddenly launch over with any significant number of MPs. The odds of one or two UKIP MPs are far better today than yesterday but that's not the same as any breakthrough. The EU elections are their next test anyway and we know what party needs to talk about Europe the least and which one wants to the most.Ricardohos said:Bloody brave of Mike to speak of EdM getting to Downing St. Who's to say UKIP won't now go on to break through the threshold?
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This really is an astonishingly dismal result for Labour.
29% during a depression with the other two main parties in government and a pretty useless government at that.
EdM should still become PM in 2015 because Cameron and Clegg are even more politically useless than he is.
But Labour piling up votes in the urban areas is a similar dead end to the Conservatives piling up votes in rural areas in 2005.
Not many opportunities for Labour gains in Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield and East London is there.
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Of course they will but all the way back to the 3.1% they had in 2010? Very unlikely and even that much hampered the tories in some marginals.RichardNabavi said:UKIP will of course fall back in a General Election, when an actual choice has to be made as to the next government,
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Very solid positive set of results for Labour making the gains where it matters.
Two things EVERYONE on this board can be glad off
1) The BNP have been hammered today. Really really hammered. They could well fold as a party.
2) Dan Hodges is on record as saying he will run down Whitehall naked if UKIP poll 6% at the next general election. Unlucky Dan!0 -
Certainly Farage has pretty much closed off the possibility of any sort of deal with Cameron and given the persistence condescending attitude of Tory politicians even after they've been given a bloody nose then I doubt a deal is doable even if the Tories did get rid of Cameron.Monksfield said:
Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.MaxPB said:The Tories need a leader who can form an electoral pact with UKIP so they stand down in Lib/Con and Lab/Con marginals and an instruction for their supporters to vote Tory in these seats to ensure they get an EU referendum. I don't think they would sign such a deal with Cameron in charge of the Tories, and without such a deal the party may as well write off 2015 and 2020 while right wing voters learn how to vote tactically.
If down the line you have an acceptable Tory leader then perhaps some sort of deal can be done but I can't see that happening this side of 2015 and perhaps not until the 2020's.
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Made my Day!Plato said:Ha
TheUKIPWales
@ukipwales
Labour girl in the audience who tore into Diane James on Question Time comes third in Kent. UKIP win the seat.0 -
You certainly shouldn't be worried JK.JamesKelly said:"I dont see much whining; just some very worried lefties"
I can only speak for myself, but I'm not worried. As that famous Panelbase poll showed, if Scottish voters assume that the Tories are going to win the next election, then Yes jumps into the lead in the independence referendum.
I'm not entirely sure what has gone wrong for Labour over the last few weeks, but the direction of travel is unmistakable, and this result is even worse for them than I anticipated.
The SNP have perhaps the most useless Conservative, Labour and LibDems in history as opponents.
If you don't win your independence vote in 2014 I'm sure you would by 2020 if only to get away from the shambles which UK politics and government is going to be for the rest of the decade.
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What would his mother say...IOS said:Very solid positive set of results for Labour making the gains where it matters.
Two things EVERYONE on this board can be glad off
1) The BNP have been hammered today. Really really hammered. They could well fold as a party.
2) Dan Hodges is on record as saying he will run down Whitehall naked if UKIP poll 6% at the next general election. Unlucky Dan!0 -
Mike
UKIP certainly matter when it comes to saving the Lib Dems. On the projections you hardly lose any seats - if any - in the south.
Amazingly FPTP is about to save the Lib Dems!!!0 -
The man behind Michael Howard's electoral 'triumph' and "are you thinking what we're thinking?" is too smart is he?SeanT said:
Crosby is far too smart to want abusive Tory attacks on UKIP.
LOL
If you say so.
Boris is also the primary reason he won the London Mayorality, not Crosby.
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This is the heart of the matter Richard. All things are not equal. The trend to protest voting is now fairly well cemented since the demise of the Blair Halo circa 2003. There will be a protest and on current trends it will be bigger than the last protests.RichardNabavi said:
However, the interesting question to me is whether other things are likely to be equal. Will former Labour, BNP, LibDem and NOTA protest voters of yesterday behave differently to former Conservative protest voters of yesterday, or will they all tend to go home to their respective 2010 behaviour in equal proportions ?
What should worry the elite more is not which party will benefit, but that these protest votes are overwhelmingly confined to the young, old and working class. The very people all major parties aspire to win over. And the protest voters don't even care if they are voting in protest for poshos (UKIP), bare-faced liars (libdems c.2010) or utter racists (BNP c.2009.)
As they say, the trend is your friend.0 -
Is there any way to compare these results meaningfully with results before last time? How much have Labour "rolled back the clock"?0
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His mother would probably say.
"I won an Oscar for getting my kit off. You lost a bet!"0 -
It's a pertinent point made by Mike. The reds, blues and yellows are retreating to their comfort zones (literally) - even if they all pretend to be One Nation parties - and the real fight will be over the marginals that will mean either Labour or the Conservatives end up as the largest party, sharing power with the Lib Dems.
If the general election were next week then we would likely have Miliband in Downing Street (partly because of Ukip), but the election campaign doesn't start for another 18 months and although today's results are reasonably good for Labour in the areas that matter, mid term protest towards Labour (such as it is) does not mean Miliband will get their votes when it comes to the crunch.0 -
He really is a compelte tw*t isn't he? Imagine repeatedly quoting this utter fool as if he were in any way not a complete joke and self-parody.IOS said:2) Dan Hodges is on record as saying he will run down Whitehall naked if UKIP poll 6% at the next general election. Unlucky Dan!
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Here's some analysis from Patrick Briône, director of research at the polling firm Survation: "...As for the wider impact, our analysis (see e.g. the scatter chart) has shown that Ukip's support comes primarily from the Conservatives and some Liberal Democrats to start with, but by the time they are polling over 20% they can be taking a significant chunk of the Labour vote away as well.
This can be seen to be borne out in today's results - Ukip for instance knocked 4,600 votes off Labour's majority in South Shields despite the collapse of the Conservatives in the by-election. While Ukip's vote share in many strongly Conservative areas will have cost the Tories seats to other parties including Labour, in the areas where UKIP has done their best they have taken seats that might otherwise have gone to Labour.
Overall, then, Labour have benefited from UKIP's success, but may be starting to get slightly uncomfortable that UKIP is becoming a little bit too successful and starting to threaten their own seats as well."
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2013/05/03/local-elections-2013-as-it-happens0 -
Grandiose
Not really as you have to go back 20 years for the last time other than 2009 when these weren't held on a general election day.0 -
Returning to my Tamworth analysis one last time:
Tamworth borough result:
Lab 6083
Con 5622
UKIP 2275
Others 813
LD 533
Green 405
The results in the two rural divisions were as follows:
Con: 2798 (48.3%)
UKIP: 1729 (29.9%)
Lab: 1006 (17.4%)
LD: 259 (4.5%)
Total: 5792
Adding these votes to the Tamworth borough result:
Con: 8420 (39.1%)
Lab: 7089 (32.9%)
UKIP: 4004 (18.6%)
LD: 792 (3.7%)
Others: 1218 (5.7%)
Total: 21523
Changes since 2010 general election:
Con: -6.7%
Lab: +0.2%
UKIP: +13.7%
LD: -12.5%
Others: +5.2%
Swing, Con to Lab: 3.5%
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Wasn't Cameron integral in Howard's campaign as well (developing the Manifesto etc). Are you sure that slogan wasn't one of Dave's?Mick_Pork said:
The man behind Michael Howard's electoral 'triumph' and "are you thinking what we're thinking?" is too smart is he?SeanT said:
Crosby is far too smart to want abusive Tory attacks on UKIP.
LOL
If you say so.
Boris is also the primary reason he won the London Mayorality, not Crosby.0 -
The perfect storm for the Kippers is that it is the Euros next year, their best opportunity to consolidate. They could top the poll in some regions. After that, they will have to target Westminster seats seriously, but where will Farage stand?
Favs must be Folkestone, Yarmouth, Boston & Skeg? All include fading coastal resort towns. Thanet another possibility?0 -
Normally in mid term the "what if a GE today" would give a massive majority for the opposition party. For Lab to only be on the boundary of getting a majority today is a horrendous result.
When did the opposition last do better at a GE than they had done in mid term?
Incidentally the BBC National Share is 29/25, not 29/24.0 -
If David Cameron was pushed out as leader and a new Eurosceptic leader was voted in by the party then there would be no problem. A lot of the UKIP voters have a problem with Cameron specifically, yes there are many who wouldn't vote Tory generally, but a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.Monksfield said:
Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.0 -
Mick
You just have to see him as a blogging version of Lembit Opik. Then everything falls into place.0 -
So which is it? 'Of course they will drop back' or 'near-inevitable'? You're right, you dunno.RichardNabavi said:UKIP will of course fall back in a General Election, when an actual choice has to be made as to the next government, rather than yesterday's largely cost-free protest vote.
Thus, the question is: will the near-inevitable drop-back from yesterday's UKIP vote share
Dunno.
.
Nor do you know whether this might be the start of a bandwagon that takes UKIP forward to even greater successes in national votes.
What you do seem to know is very little about what happened if you can describe UKIP support on at least three times in one post merely as 'protest'. Wake up Richard et. al.0 -
2011 Labour 37%
2012 Labour 39%
2012 Labour 29%
That ain't 'sealing the deal' is it.
Piling up votes in safe areas is not what Labour needs.
So whose for the chop first ?
Osborne ?
Balls ?
Clegg ?
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Well given UKIP took 7 of 8 wards in Thanet both Thanet seats (North & South) would be worth targetting. Swale and Sheppey in Kent is also worth looking at. It's split between Labour and UKIP now. in terms of County Council seatsMonksfield said:The perfect storm for the Kippers is that it is the Euros next year, their best opportunity to consolidate. They could top the poll in some regions. After that, they will have to target Westminster seats seriously, but where will Farage stand?
Favs must be Folkestone, Yarmouth, Boston & Skeg? All include fading coastal resort towns. Thanet another possibility?0 -
Slogans and soundbites tend to be under the purview of the press operations not the policy units. Though I'll grant you "The Big Society", "Aspiration Nation", the "Ronseal Deal" and the unforgettable "we're all in this together" are proof that the tories still haven't learned much there. Crosby or no Crosby.smithersjones2013 said:Wasn't Cameron integral in Howard's campaign as well (developing the Manifesto etc). Are you sure that slogan wasn't one of Dave's?
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Marina Hyde in the Guardian:
"Nigel Farage: a man I would gladly have a pint with
The Ukip leader makes his opponents look as if they take things far too seriously. The normal rulebook does not apply":
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/nigel-farage-superpower-politics-lightly0 -
Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader, who equally wouldn't be able to make water into wine, retrospectively change the parliamentary arithmetic of 2010, turn back the clock on immigration, magic away the nonsenses of the ECHR, conjure growth out of nowhere, or figure out an instant way of getting the advantages of the EU and EEA without the disadvantages.MaxPB said:a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.
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I replied on the previous thread Sean. I think some of UKIPs support are very focussed on this and would not be impressed but my suspicion is that the larger part of UKIP's support today came from people who have had wages falling in real terms for the best part of 5 years now, who can no longer afford the luxuries they took for granted, who are going downmarket on their holidays, delaying in replacing the car, letting repairs slip, not getting out so often and have generally just had enough.SeanT said:DavidL said:
"Missed in all the excitment today but some really excellent PMIs for services: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10035097/UK-services-sector-hits-eight-month-high.html
Service growth at an 8 month high last month. That is three from three this week all pointing to much faster growth from here.
Will this be part of the answer? If the economy is seen to turn around will UKIP supporters start to feel more gruntled? And what on earth does Labour do then?"
If the British economy starts to accelerate, even as the eurozone stagnates - and this looks increasingly possible - that will mean Britain sucks in even more immigrants from eastern and southern Europe.
I don't think that's going to dent UKIP's chances, do you?
If they see the economy, and far more importantly their own wages pick up their view of life will change and so will their votes. It is getting very tight to do this before the election because perception here follows reality at a distance but there is still a chance. They also need to be scared silly about what Labour would do to them the next time.
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Spin away... Labour have actually done adequately this time where they needed to, the Midlands. It's here where the next election will be fought.another_richard said:This really is an astonishingly dismal result for Labour.
29% during a depression with the other two main parties in government and a pretty useless government at that.
EdM should still become PM in 2015 because Cameron and Clegg are even more politically useless than he is.
Labour needs to find one or two charismatic attack dogs and get them into the media spotlight (and I don't mean Ed Balls!). If nothing else, this election says that people are sick of bland platitude-spouting drones of all colours. And Labour has these in spades.
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Jonathan Freedland:
"Consider this fact. Only one party managed to clear the 20% threshold in both the South Shields byelection last night and the parliamentary contest in Eastleigh in February. That was not Labour, which safely won in the former last night, after it had trailed in fourth in the latter. It certainly was not the Tories, who came third in both places. And it emphatically was not the Liberal Democrats who managed to retain Eastleigh, but won a miserable 352 votes – half those of the BNP – to come seventh in South Shields.
Only Ukip performed strongly in both these seats, one in the heart of traditionally Tory southern England, the other in a northern Labour stronghold – claiming nearly 28% in the first and 24% in the second.
To have such wide geographic appeal, taking on both government and opposition, is a feat rarely achieved by a third party, let alone a fourth."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/local-elections-results-panel-verdict0 -
That's not going to happen outside of the next election.MaxPB said:
If David Cameron was pushed out as leader and a new Eurosceptic leader was voted in by the party then there would be no problem. A lot of the UKIP voters have a problem with Cameron specifically, yes there are many who wouldn't vote Tory generally, but a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.Monksfield said:
Surely many have voted Kipper for the simple reason they arent the Tories. Farage owes it to those who have voted for his party to offer a proper alternative and a grubby alliance with the Tories would be poorly received all round.
Firstly because its not just Cameron who's the problem - its Cameron and all his chums. You'd need to clear out Osborne, Letwin, Maude, Hunt and the rest. Compare with 1990 when the problem was specifically Thatcher.
Secondly because its important that the Cameroons 'own' the 2015 election defeat. After today we can be sure its not going to be a Labour landslide so the Conservatives will have the chance to quickly recover once the chumocracy has been dealt with and while the Eds flounder in government.
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Stay in denial all you want Richard, but UKIP's rise is related to David Cameron's failure to grasp the nettle on the Europe issue early in 2009 when Labour voted through Lisbon without a referendum. Back then he should have switched to an In/Out pledge and kept his promise to give the people a vote on Europe.RichardNabavi said:Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader, who equally wouldn't be able to make water into wine, retrospectively change the parliamentary arithmetic of 2010, turn back the clock on immigration, magic away the nonsenses of the ECHR, conjure growth out of nowhere, or figure out an instant way of getting the advantages of the EU and EEA without the disadvantages.
A new leader would be untainted by this failure, and a heavyweight Eurosceptic would be enough to find a common thread with UKIP/Farage. That will be impossible for Cameron to do, Farage and many UKIP members really do despise Cameron, one only needs to read the Telegraph comments section to witness this.0 -
Well I eat my words: local elections were interesting. My view Tories: could've been worse given the cutting being applied and not bad per se at this stage but huge caveat what to do about strategic split in right of centre vote. Labour: should be doing a lot better but in built electoral advantage brought into sharp focus today; it still works in their favour. UKIP clearly great but doubtless scrutiny will really start, their sums don't add up and some of their "characterful" new councillors will screw up in the glare of publicity doubtless. Libs: God awful, pure circle the wagons around the 57 or whatever it is MPs time.
I think it will really kick off post Euros and Scots poll next year. The Tories may (desperately?) want a deal with UKIP though if the Scots did vote to go that 's Ed's electoral advantage largely gone south in one fell swoop.
Time for a reflective Summer all round.
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Possibly, but I think by pushing Cameron out a lot of his chumocracy would go with him and a whole new Cabinet would replace them.another_richard said:
That's not going to happen outside of the next election.
Firstly because its not just Cameron who's the problem - its Cameron and all his chums. You'd need to clear out Osborne, Letwin, Maude, Hunt and the rest. Compare with 1990 when the problem was specifically Thatcher.
Secondly because its important that the Cameroons 'own' the 2015 election defeat. After today we can be sure its not going to be a Labour landslide so the Conservatives will have the chance to quickly recover once the chumocracy has been dealt with and while the Eds flounder in government.0 -
I'll leave the spinning to you mate.Monksfield said:
Spin away... Labour have actually done adequately this time where they needed to, the Midlands. It's here where the next election will be fought.another_richard said:This really is an astonishingly dismal result for Labour.
29% during a depression with the other two main parties in government and a pretty useless government at that.
EdM should still become PM in 2015 because Cameron and Clegg are even more politically useless than he is.
Labour needs to find one or two charismatic attack dogs and get them into the media spotlight (and I don't mean Ed Balls!). If nothing else, this election says that people are sick of bland platitude-spouting drones of all colours. And Labour has these in spades.
I've said at least twice here that EdM will become prime minster in 2015.
But that doesn't stop today being a dismal performance by Labour.
Still you can only beat what you're up against and what Labour are up against is even worse than they are.
But that doesn't alter the fact that Labour have done significantly worse than in 2005 at the point in the electoral cycle which should be most advantageous for them.
Personally I'm looking forward to the government of the Eds - it will combine the worst bits of the Brown and Cameron governments.
It will be very entertaining watching and things need to reach the bottom before they can look up.
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Likely nearer to 10. The economy is still going to dominate in 2015 and little Ed hardly want's Balls up against someone competent.tim said:" You'd need to clear out Osborne, Letwin, Maude, Hunt and the rest."
That in itself is probably worth 5% to the Tories.
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@MaxPB - UKIP's success yesterday has little to do with Europe. I think another_richard has a better grip on the root causes of the disgruntlement, even if I don't agree with him on much else.0
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Inevitable.
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman 1h
The more I think about this backbench EU bill plan, the more I realise it's going to turn into a HUGE row with the PM http://specc.ie/YsCf5X0 -
Well no chance to follow things much today. Driving home I heard Pickles on the radio responding to gutted Tory councillors... I doubt that smug dissery would have gone down well.0
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If nothing else, one thing yesterday has shown is that it is the Cameroons who are in denial of reality.RichardNabavi said:
Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader,
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All good points Sean. I have not seem mainstream politicians of all parties looking so flustered since the peak of the expenses scandal. I think UKIP are completely silly and simplistic and would never vote for them in any conceiveable scenario but it is frankly good to see. All those politicians who thought Blair, with his concentration on the marginals to the expense of everything else, was some sort of electoral god have had a wake up call and that is undoubtedly a good thing for our politics.SeanT said:My guess is that opening ten minutes of the BBC news at 6 probably added another 200,000 voters to the UKIP cause.
First we get 5 minutes of Farage looking happy, relaxed and personable, in a pub; sounding normal; making sensible remarks, with a dash of wit - and therefore coming across better than almost any other politician in the UK.
Then we get five minutes of the other political leaders looking panicked, and speaking in that awkward neutered special patois they use, which always sounds like a pack of lies, even when it isn't.
I can see why lefties are enraged by the BBC's positive coverage of the kippers.
It is time the tories found out who speaks normal English and get them out front and central. Pickles was doing a good job on the BBC today.
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Like the identity parade scene from 'Usual Suspects' on C4.0
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Shapps blundering all over the place on the News just now over Cammie's "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" stupidity. Most amusing.
Farage sticking the boot right into Cammie with quite some glee. He's earned it.0 -
Well done in extending the new Cameron/Clarke fuelled Tory variant of the 'nasty party' stereotype by suggesting UKIP voters are in denial . If the new leader's attitude was like yours then you are absolutely right. It would be very easy to dislike him or her immediately.RichardNabavi said:
Nonsense. All that would happen is that the unpopularity (which is based on a denial of reality) would rapidly transfer to the new leader, who equally wouldn't be able to make water into wine, retrospectively change the parliamentary arithmetic of 2010, turn back the clock on immigration, magic away the nonsenses of the ECHR, conjure growth out of nowhere, or figure out an instant way of getting the advantages of the EU and EEA without the disadvantages.MaxPB said:a new working class Tory leader who isn't called David Cameron and isn't tainted by the "Cast Iron" promise failure would not be much of an issue I think, at least for a major bulk of UKIP voters.
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