Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
After everyone suspended the market's when Boris got the 'Rona it was always going to happen if Biden/Trump got it.
I was warning people to expect it to happen.
Personally I feel it is basically dishonest by the bookies, as you say acturial risk has to have been factored into decisions by everyone betting on the markets.
Yeah, it was wrong for Boris too.
It's because Betfair fear the wrath of the governing parties for "profiteering" in the event of a tragedy, and then the regulators coming after them.
Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
After everyone suspended the market's when Boris got the 'Rona it was always going to happen if Biden/Trump got it.
I was warning people to expect it to happen.
Personally I feel it is basically dishonest by the bookies, as you say acturial risk has to have been factored into decisions by everyone betting on the markets.
Yeah, it was wrong for Boris too.
It's because Betfair fear the wrath of the governing parties for "profiteering" in the event of a tragedy, and then the regulators coming after them.
So, it's cowardice basically.
Or a company acting in its own commercial interests perhaps.....
If it’s mild for him, he’ll be all, “Hey, I told you it was nothing to be worried about,” and anti-covid measures vanish from the US. And who knows how it affects his base and swing voters to be told this.
Luckily he's not really in charge of the response, except for dealing with the economic fallout. The federal government can help or hinder, but it's mainly down to the states.
As others have commented the only remarkable thing about this is that it has taken so long. Trump's ignorant, reckless behaviour must have exposed himself to the virus on numerous occasions. It is perhaps again evidence that this virus is not as easy to catch as some think.
A week after Donald Trump told Americans not to worry about Covid-19 because "it affects virtually nobody" except the elderly and those with heart conditions, the president himself has tested positive for the virus ... Just two days ago, during the first debate, Trump belittled Democratic opponent Joe Biden for frequently wearing masks.
We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?
Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.
Yes, I'm sure that they'll find some Dem somewhere celebrating unwisely. Biden is good at this kind of thing, though.
If (if!) Biden isn’t infected, this may well be good news for him politically. He does dignified non-partisan sympathy very well. Much better than detailed policy.
Has anybody informed Joe Biden that he has detailed policies?
With a month to go, I don't think I have heard either candidate outline anything in detail. Trump doesn't even have build a wall or lock her up this time.
Of course, the flipside is that if he got ill but it was mild for him and he goes on to win again then there could be massive implications as to how the US actually moves forward in the coronavirus fight.
Any conspiracy theories that he doesn’t have it, but rapid “recovery” will boost his campaign chances?
Of course, the flipside is that if he got ill but it was mild for him and he goes on to win again then there could be massive implications as to how the US actually moves forward in the coronavirus fight.
Any conspiracy theories that he doesn’t have it, but rapid “recovery” will boost his campaign chances?
Were there ever any slaves in California? There were indentured Chinese that came seriously close to being slaves, especially in San Francisco, but it was always a free state. Weird.
Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
After everyone suspended the market's when Boris got the 'Rona it was always going to happen if Biden/Trump got it.
I was warning people to expect it to happen.
Personally I feel it is basically dishonest by the bookies, as you say acturial risk has to have been factored into decisions by everyone betting on the markets.
Although in Johnson’s case it only happened after he was taken to hospital.
It is perhaps again evidence that this virus is not as easy to catch as some think.
It's nothing of the sort. Beyond the President's inner ring of stupidity lay a considerably more carefully managed ring fence. Some got through but there's no comparison to the general population.
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
As a ballpark figure that sounds about right, perhaps a little higher.
Being significantly incapacitated for weeks/months is quite possible though.
What are the odds on that though? I read somewhere that 70% of cases are asymptomatic. Is it lower for the more elderly? If not, the most likely scenario is: he`s tested positive, no symptoms, so what?
Its absolutely fair game to laugh at this. "Covid is a Hoax" say so many Trump supporting morons. It will just go away. We've done a brilliant job. Lets attack Democrat governors for imposing restrictions on people. Etc etc etc.
Trump has personally encouraged behaviour that has led to the deaths of a lot of people. I sincerely hope that he recovers so that he can be the first former president to go to jail for massive fraud, but I can't help being highly entertained by this massively unexpected turn of events.
As for what it does to the camapign, I think this only accelerates the Biden landslide. The compare and contrast clips are already being released showing Trump mocking the pox and all the attempts to stop it spreading. Where will he get sympathy from? His own supporters think its a hoax. His opponents blame him for it. This isn't the same as Shagger catching it early doors.
A week after Donald Trump told Americans not to worry about Covid-19 because "it affects virtually nobody" except the elderly and those with heart conditions, the president himself has tested positive for the virus ... Just two days ago, during the first debate, Trump belittled Democratic opponent Joe Biden for frequently wearing masks.
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
I think about a third of ICU patients die, and there are five times as many hospitalizations (though patients in ICU will spend time in hospital not in ICU before and after), so the hospitalization rate for a 74 year old male must be reasonably high.
It`s a bit contradictory. It also says: "Last year, he was weighed at 239 pounds, giving the 6-foot-3 president a body mass index of 29.9, just under the level of 30 that is considered obese."
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
So people will have to pay for the sins of their ancestors from over 150 years ago. It's all a bit sinister isn't it?
Trump for all his faults was the only politician prepared to fight back against this sort of nonsense and it looks like he is done now. Get ready for a lot more of this kind of thing.
There is no way he is 6ft3. His driving license is 6ft2 from 2012 and people shrink in their old age. He is probably about 6ft making the technically quite redundant.
It is perhaps again evidence that this virus is not as easy to catch as some think.
It's nothing of the sort. Beyond the President's inner ring of stupidity lay a considerably more carefully managed ring fence. Some got through but there's no comparison to the general population.
Yep - an ever useful reminder that what you see on TV bears very little relation to reality.
I mean it’s even possible to defend it if you take the view that the risk (increased number of deaths due to CV19) is greater than the “cure” (economic Armageddon and all that flows from it). In those circumstances maintaining an image of disregard for the severity of the virus (whilst taking extreme personal precautions) is actually quite logically justified. And even not definitively wrong.
It`s a bit contradictory. It also says: "Last year, he was weighed at 239 pounds, giving the 6-foot-3 president a body mass index of 29.9, just under the level of 30 that is considered obese."
I was around that weight a couple of years back and am 6'1. He's way over that. Around 260 at least.
As for what it does to the camapign, I think this only accelerates the Biden landslide.
If Biden caught it from the Trump entourage at the debate, and Trump recovers, but Biden is still ill on election-day... I don't think that's a positive for Biden.
I can't bring myself to echo Edmund of Tokyo's previous remark, because no matter how godawful someone is I don't wish them dead. On the other hand, I kind of hope that if he does make it through it's only after a torrid time that may teach him not to be such a moron about this ghastly virus. I certainly think it changed Boris.
As for my Melania comment, it was only because I thought she can't stand him?
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
I think about a third of ICU patients die, and there are five times as many hospitalizations (though patients in ICU will spend time in hospital not in ICU before and after), so the hospitalization rate for a 74 year old male must be reasonably high.
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
My Betfair position was OK at suspension
Joe Biden £1,064.07
Donald Trump -£881.74
Kamala Harris £738.75
Hillary Clinton -£71.75
Mike Pence £479.51
Michelle Obama -£69.25
Michael Bloomberg -£72.35
The field -£72.25
You've done well to cover Pence and a bit better than me generally. Surprised you're not more negative on the field.
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
My Betfair position was OK at suspension
Joe Biden £1,064.07
Donald Trump -£881.74
Kamala Harris £738.75
Hillary Clinton -£71.75
Mike Pence £479.51
Michelle Obama -£69.25
Michael Bloomberg -£72.35
The field -£72.25
You've done well to cover Pence and a bit better than me generally. Surprised you're not more negative on the field.
I can't bring myself to echo Edmund of Tokyo's previous remark, because no matter how godawful someone is I don't wish them dead. On the other hand, I kind of hope that if he does make it through it's only after a torrid time that may teach him not to be such a moron about this ghastly virus. I certainly think it changed Boris.
As for my Melania comment, it was only because I thought she can't stand him?
Changed Boris? He's just as useless and incompetent as he was before!
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
It's a beastly disease. You wouldn't wish it on anybody, even Trump. Let's hope he and Melania come through it ok. Best wishes to them both.
Before entering the ECV Spread Markets I checked with Sporting Index that the bets would be void if Trump or Biden dropped out, for any reason. They confirmed this would be so. I am not sure what Betfair's position is.
Let's just hope the Election campaign gets back on track soon. I can't see this helping Trump at all but it's a bit soon to be speculating on that.
I can't bring myself to echo Edmund of Tokyo's previous remark, because no matter how godawful someone is I don't wish them dead. On the other hand, I kind of hope that if he does make it through it's only after a torrid time that may teach him not to be such a moron about this ghastly virus. I certainly think it changed Boris.
As for my Melania comment, it was only because I thought she can't stand him?
Indeed. I also agree with your Melania comment. As for Johnson, yes he was idle, feckless and incompetent pre-Covid.
It`s a bit contradictory. It also says: "Last year, he was weighed at 239 pounds, giving the 6-foot-3 president a body mass index of 29.9, just under the level of 30 that is considered obese."
I was around that weight a couple of years back and am 6'1. He's way over that. Around 260 at least.
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
I can't bring myself to echo Edmund of Tokyo's previous remark, because no matter how godawful someone is I don't wish them dead. On the other hand, I kind of hope that if he does make it through it's only after a torrid time that may teach him not to be such a moron about this ghastly virus. I certainly think it changed Boris.
As for my Melania comment, it was only because I thought she can't stand him?
Changed Boris? He's just as useless and incompetent as he was before!
Not quite he used to be useless and incompetent but had a je ne sais quoi that both hid those items and meant they didn't really matter.
That je ne sais quoi has evaporated and brought his uselessness and incompetency to the fore.
So I guess I get bragging rights because I was on here back in April (I think - it's not showing in my history!, but I will dig it up) saying that there was no way Trump wouldn't get this given his attitude and a bet on Pence might be a good idea. I recommended betting on Pence and was shot down because the betfair market is about who is the president after Election Day.
I got 25 quid on at 200-1, it went down to 45-1 in May but I didn't cash out.
I was regretting this a few days ago as Pence had gone out to 500-1. Now I can't wait to cash out...
As for what it does to the camapign, I think this only accelerates the Biden landslide.
If Biden caught it from the Trump entourage at the debate, and Trump recovers, but Biden is still ill on election-day... I don't think that's a positive for Biden.
It's by no means impossible that Biden will contract the virus at some point, but is this particularly likely he'd have done so at the debate? It's not like they were having drinks and nibbles in the green room. At most they'd have passed like ships in the night at the venue.
His VP pick was also chosen specifically because she was a highly credible potential replacement, and indeed her net favourable ratings are a little better than Biden, and better than Trump or Pence.
As it is, I do actually think there will be a sympathy boost for Trump as a backlash against rather unkind comments about someone who, whatever your view on his politics (and mine is extremely negative), is ultimately a man with a fairly young son who is in a high-ish risk group and has a potentially nasty virus.
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
My Betfair position was OK at suspension
Joe Biden £1,064.07
Donald Trump -£881.74
Kamala Harris £738.75
Hillary Clinton -£71.75
Mike Pence £479.51
Michelle Obama -£69.25
Michael Bloomberg -£72.35
The field -£72.25
So you will be £71.75 down when Hillary wins. You'd better hope Betfair voids the market!
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
My Betfair position was OK at suspension
Joe Biden £1,064.07
Donald Trump -£881.74
Kamala Harris £738.75
Hillary Clinton -£71.75
Mike Pence £479.51
Michelle Obama -£69.25
Michael Bloomberg -£72.35
The field -£72.25
You've done well to cover Pence and a bit better than me generally. Surprised you're not more negative on the field.
Not that I thought Trump was going to win, but its game over for his re-election. He can't do his rallies, the one thing he does that can drum up support.
All the ballots will be printed and quite a few even cast for Trump already.
This is the Hillary scenario that was discussed a few weeks ago.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
As a ballpark figure that sounds about right, perhaps a little higher.
Being significantly incapacitated for weeks/months is quite possible though.
I think hospitalisation-level illness is around 10-20% for an obese 74 year old (which is, of course, 80-90% no hospitalisation), and serious symptoms that wouldn’t really need hospitalisation (but feel awful) are a further 20% or so.
I’d assume they’d be erring on the precautionary side, so maybe one in three chance of hospitalisation for him (so still a majority chance of no hospitalisation).
Up to 3 months post-viral-syndrome/lingering covid about 10-20% (but almost unrelated to the other odds, so not on top of, or within those, but a separate dice roll), and Long Covid lasting beyond 3 months about 5%.
Those are rough numbers, but they do provide a jumping off point for a variety of political scenarios.
- Trump is asymptomatic (with subset scenarios of everyone close to him has no more than mild symptoms and fully recovers, someone close to him has at least mild symptoms and lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and fully recovers, someone close to him is hospitalised and has lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and dies. - Trump has mild symptoms and fully recovers - Trump has mild symptoms and lingering aftereffects - Trump is hospitalised and fully recovers - Trump is hospitalised and has lingering effects - Trump is hospitalised and dies
Separate to the human element that this is a person potentially suffering from a possibly nasty illness and is in a vulnerable group, we can’t overlook the political factors that he’s President of the US in this natural disaster and the election is coming up in one month; those are the scenarios possible, and each one can lead to very different futures
So I guess I get bragging rights because I was on here back in April (I think - it's not showing in my history!, but I will dig it up) saying that there was no way Trump wouldn't get this given his attitude and a bet on Pence might be a good idea. I recommended betting on Pence and was shot down because the betfair market is about who is the president after Election Day.
I got 25 quid on at 200-1, it went down to 45-1 in May but I didn't cash out.
I was regretting this a few days ago as Pence had gone out to 500-1. Now I can't wait to cash out...
Presumably the odds on Kamala have gone down too, given the increased risk that Biden may also be infected?
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
As a ballpark figure that sounds about right, perhaps a little higher.
Being significantly incapacitated for weeks/months is quite possible though.
I think hospitalisation-level illness is around 10-20% for an obese 74 year old (which is, of course, 80-90% no hospitalisation), and serious symptoms that wouldn’t really need hospitalisation (but feel awful) are a further 20% or so.
I’d assume they’d be erring on the precautionary side, so maybe one in three chance of hospitalisation for him (so still a majority chance of no hospitalisation).
Up to 3 months post-viral-syndrome/lingering covid about 10-20% (but almost unrelated to the other odds, so not on top of, or within those, but a separate dice roll), and Long Covid lasting beyond 3 months about 5%.
Those are rough numbers, but they do provide a jumping off point for a variety of political scenarios.
- Trump is asymptomatic (with subset scenarios of everyone close to him has no more than mild symptoms and fully recovers, someone close to him has at least mild symptoms and lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and fully recovers, someone close to him is hospitalised and has lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and dies. - Trump has mild symptoms and fully recovers - Trump has mild symptoms and lingering aftereffects - Trump is hospitalised and fully recovers - Trump is hospitalised and has lingering effects - Trump is hospitalised and dies
Separate to the human element that this is a person potentially suffering from a possibly nasty illness and is in a vulnerable group, we can’t overlook the political factors that he’s President of the US in this natural disaster and the election is coming up in one month; those are the scenarios possible, and each one can lead to very different futures
My rough finger in the air estimates on probability of the above are: - Asymptomatic - 25% - Mild/ full recovery - 25% - Mild/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/full recovery - 15% - Hospitalised/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/dies - 5%
It obviously counts as an October Surprise - but I expected it to be engineered by Trump to help Trump - so even more surprising. Might not be over yet - I expect McConnell and SC Nominee Barrett will also be getting tested.
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
As a ballpark figure that sounds about right, perhaps a little higher.
Being significantly incapacitated for weeks/months is quite possible though.
I think hospitalisation-level illness is around 10-20% for an obese 74 year old (which is, of course, 80-90% no hospitalisation), and serious symptoms that wouldn’t really need hospitalisation (but feel awful) are a further 20% or so.
I’d assume they’d be erring on the precautionary side, so maybe one in three chance of hospitalisation for him (so still a majority chance of no hospitalisation).
Up to 3 months post-viral-syndrome/lingering covid about 10-20% (but almost unrelated to the other odds, so not on top of, or within those, but a separate dice roll), and Long Covid lasting beyond 3 months about 5%.
Those are rough numbers, but they do provide a jumping off point for a variety of political scenarios.
- Trump is asymptomatic (with subset scenarios of everyone close to him has no more than mild symptoms and fully recovers, someone close to him has at least mild symptoms and lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and fully recovers, someone close to him is hospitalised and has lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and dies. - Trump has mild symptoms and fully recovers - Trump has mild symptoms and lingering aftereffects - Trump is hospitalised and fully recovers - Trump is hospitalised and has lingering effects - Trump is hospitalised and dies
Separate to the human element that this is a person potentially suffering from a possibly nasty illness and is in a vulnerable group, we can’t overlook the political factors that he’s President of the US in this natural disaster and the election is coming up in one month; those are the scenarios possible, and each one can lead to very different futures
My rough finger in the air estimates on probability of the above are: - Asymptomatic - 25% - Mild/ full recovery - 25% - Mild/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/full recovery - 15% - Hospitalised/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/dies - 5%
It's a beastly disease. You wouldn't wish it on anybody, even Trump. Let's hope he and Melania come through it ok. Best wishes to them both.
Before entering the ECV Spread Markets I checked with Sporting Index that the bets would be void if Trump or Biden dropped out, for any reason. They confirmed this would be so. I am not sure what Betfair's position is.
Let's just hope the Election campaign gets back on track soon. I can't see this helping Trump at all but it's a bit soon to be speculating on that.
Talk about Black Swans.
Bf rules say:
"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution."
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
The biggest reason for wishing Trump well. Mike Pence.
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
I guess there’s at least a possibility of insider betting for a few days, so a shortish suspension isn’t entirely unreasonable.
Voiding the market would be. Though I have to acknowledge I’m not disinterested in the question.
The only reason IMHO that a market should be voided due to mortality is if the mortality is due to unnatural causes (eg an assassination).
It would clearly be wrong if someone could bet that Trump would leave office this year then shot him.
Other than that I don't think its appropriate. But companies are commercial and can do whatever is in their interests within the rules. Worth noting the Johnson markets were only suspended when he was hospitalised though.
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
As a ballpark figure that sounds about right, perhaps a little higher.
Being significantly incapacitated for weeks/months is quite possible though.
I think hospitalisation-level illness is around 10-20% for an obese 74 year old (which is, of course, 80-90% no hospitalisation), and serious symptoms that wouldn’t really need hospitalisation (but feel awful) are a further 20% or so.
I’d assume they’d be erring on the precautionary side, so maybe one in three chance of hospitalisation for him (so still a majority chance of no hospitalisation).
Up to 3 months post-viral-syndrome/lingering covid about 10-20% (but almost unrelated to the other odds, so not on top of, or within those, but a separate dice roll), and Long Covid lasting beyond 3 months about 5%.
Those are rough numbers, but they do provide a jumping off point for a variety of political scenarios.
- Trump is asymptomatic (with subset scenarios of everyone close to him has no more than mild symptoms and fully recovers, someone close to him has at least mild symptoms and lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and fully recovers, someone close to him is hospitalised and has lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and dies. - Trump has mild symptoms and fully recovers - Trump has mild symptoms and lingering aftereffects - Trump is hospitalised and fully recovers - Trump is hospitalised and has lingering effects - Trump is hospitalised and dies
Separate to the human element that this is a person potentially suffering from a possibly nasty illness and is in a vulnerable group, we can’t overlook the political factors that he’s President of the US in this natural disaster and the election is coming up in one month; those are the scenarios possible, and each one can lead to very different futures
My rough finger in the air estimates on probability of the above are: - Asymptomatic - 25% - Mild/ full recovery - 25% - Mild/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/full recovery - 15% - Hospitalised/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/dies - 5%
Great post
I suspect the all important question is what the situation will be in 2+ weeks time when he could be back campaigning, which looks to be 50/50 on those odds.
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
The biggest reason for wishing Trump well. Mike Pence.
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
My initial feeling is that Pence would have a lower chance of beating Biden than Trump because many Trump-worshippers wouldn`t turnout to vote. But I`d be interested in any views to the contrary.
Putting aside the human element of this and not wanting anyone to be sick...
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
That does reflect very badly on Blackford simply as a politician. If he didn't know instinctively and immediately what the public reaction would be to an MP who'd tested positive sauntering around an intercity train etc, he has no business being a senior politician.
That does reflect very badly on Blackford simply as a politician. If he didn't know instinctively and immediately what the public reaction would be to an MP who'd tested positive sauntering around an intercity train etc, he has no business being a senior politician.
Nobody cares about Blackford today though. They entirely by accident chose a good day to bury bad news.
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
The biggest reason for wishing Trump well. Mike Pence.
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
My initial feeling is that Pence would have a lower chance of beating Biden than Trump because many Trump-worshippers wouldn`t turnout to vote. But I`d be interested in any views to the contrary.
People are already voting in some states. Long queues iirc.
Is this is a stunt to stop them by putting in FUD?
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
The biggest reason for wishing Trump well. Mike Pence.
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
My initial feeling is that Pence would have a lower chance of beating Biden than Trump because many Trump-worshippers wouldn`t turnout to vote. But I`d be interested in any views to the contrary.
I think that Pence would try and sell himself as the appointed successor of The Dear Leader - to the Trumpistas. To the swing voters - Mr Sober Politician.
So I guess I get bragging rights because I was on here back in April (I think - it's not showing in my history!, but I will dig it up) saying that there was no way Trump wouldn't get this given his attitude and a bet on Pence might be a good idea. I recommended betting on Pence and was shot down because the betfair market is about who is the president after Election Day.
I got 25 quid on at 200-1, it went down to 45-1 in May but I didn't cash out.
I was regretting this a few days ago as Pence had gone out to 500-1. Now I can't wait to cash out...
Presumably the odds on Kamala have gone down too, given the increased risk that Biden may also be infected?
I stand to win a stupendous amount if Kamala is elected POTUS.
Pretty f*cking angry this morning that BF have suspended.
Putting aside the human element of this and not wanting anyone to be sick...
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
Comments
Please desist.
It's because Betfair fear the wrath of the governing parties for "profiteering" in the event of a tragedy, and then the regulators coming after them.
So, it's cowardice basically.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/california-sets-off-on-road-to-paying-reparations-for-slavery-z7hfss7z7
A week after Donald Trump told Americans not to worry about Covid-19 because "it affects virtually nobody" except the elderly and those with heart conditions, the president himself has tested positive for the virus ... Just two days ago, during the first debate, Trump belittled Democratic opponent Joe Biden for frequently wearing masks.
He'll have the best medical care available on the planet too.
Being significantly incapacitated for weeks/months is quite possible though.
Trump has personally encouraged behaviour that has led to the deaths of a lot of people. I sincerely hope that he recovers so that he can be the first former president to go to jail for massive fraud, but I can't help being highly entertained by this massively unexpected turn of events.
As for what it does to the camapign, I think this only accelerates the Biden landslide. The compare and contrast clips are already being released showing Trump mocking the pox and all the attempts to stop it spreading. Where will he get sympathy from? His own supporters think its a hoax. His opponents blame him for it. This isn't the same as Shagger catching it early doors.
Trump's going to be on the ballot paper and in plenty of states the electoral college voters are legally obliged to vote for whoever wins the state, even if they are dead.
This has the makings of the Theresa May exit date market shambles.
Joe Biden
£1,064.07
Donald Trump
-£881.74
Kamala Harris
£738.75
Hillary Clinton
-£71.75
Mike Pence
£479.51
Michelle Obama
-£69.25
Michael Bloomberg
-£72.35
The field
-£72.25
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
Trump for all his faults was the only politician prepared to fight back against this sort of nonsense and it looks like he is done now. Get ready for a lot more of this kind of thing.
I mean it’s even possible to defend it if you take the view that the risk (increased number of deaths due to CV19) is greater than the “cure” (economic Armageddon and all that flows from it). In those circumstances maintaining an image of disregard for the severity of the virus (whilst taking extreme personal precautions) is actually quite logically justified. And even not definitively wrong.
As for my Melania comment, it was only because I thought she can't stand him?
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm#:~:text=Hospitalization rates increased with age,those aged ≥65 years.
I'm:
+810 Biden
-750 Trump
+195 Kamala
-530 Pence
-550 the field.
Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts
Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts
Trump refuses to concede defeat
Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency
Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue
Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution
Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out
Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
Before entering the ECV Spread Markets I checked with Sporting Index that the bets would be void if Trump or Biden dropped out, for any reason. They confirmed this would be so. I am not sure what Betfair's position is.
Let's just hope the Election campaign gets back on track soon. I can't see this helping Trump at all but it's a bit soon to be speculating on that.
Talk about Black Swans.
Is there any truth to that? I though treatments like Remdesivir etc had maybe reduced mortality by a third not 85%?
Is the 85% simply because of increased testing now finding the asymptomatic or has actual mortality been reduced?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5827019/Justin-Trudeau-proves-Trump-overstating-height-two-inches-means-obese.html
https://twitter.com/btfoshizzle/status/1311924982604275712
That je ne sais quoi has evaporated and brought his uselessness and incompetency to the fore.
I got 25 quid on at 200-1, it went down to 45-1 in May but I didn't cash out.
I was regretting this a few days ago as Pence had gone out to 500-1. Now I can't wait to cash out...
His VP pick was also chosen specifically because she was a highly credible potential replacement, and indeed her net favourable ratings are a little better than Biden, and better than Trump or Pence.
As it is, I do actually think there will be a sympathy boost for Trump as a backlash against rather unkind comments about someone who, whatever your view on his politics (and mine is extremely negative), is ultimately a man with a fairly young son who is in a high-ish risk group and has a potentially nasty virus.
I`m worried about BF shenanighans over void rules.
I’d assume they’d be erring on the precautionary side, so maybe one in three chance of hospitalisation for him (so still a majority chance of no hospitalisation).
Up to 3 months post-viral-syndrome/lingering covid about 10-20% (but almost unrelated to the other odds, so not on top of, or within those, but a separate dice roll), and Long Covid lasting beyond 3 months about 5%.
Those are rough numbers, but they do provide a jumping off point for a variety of political scenarios.
- Trump is asymptomatic (with subset scenarios of everyone close to him has no more than mild symptoms and fully recovers, someone close to him has at least mild symptoms and lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and fully recovers, someone close to him is hospitalised and has lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and dies.
- Trump has mild symptoms and fully recovers
- Trump has mild symptoms and lingering aftereffects
- Trump is hospitalised and fully recovers
- Trump is hospitalised and has lingering effects
- Trump is hospitalised and dies
Separate to the human element that this is a person potentially suffering from a possibly nasty illness and is in a vulnerable group, we can’t overlook the political factors that he’s President of the US in this natural disaster and the election is coming up in one month; those are the scenarios possible, and each one can lead to very different futures
- Asymptomatic - 25%
- Mild/ full recovery - 25%
- Mild/lingering symptoms - 15%
- Hospitalised/full recovery - 15%
- Hospitalised/lingering symptoms - 15%
- Hospitalised/dies - 5%
Might not be over yet - I expect McConnell and SC Nominee Barrett will also be getting tested.
- Trump has mild symptoms and lingering aftereffects
I'll take this one
Voiding the market would be. Though I have to acknowledge I’m not disinterested in the question.
"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution."
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
It would clearly be wrong if someone could bet that Trump would leave office this year then shot him.
Other than that I don't think its appropriate. But companies are commercial and can do whatever is in their interests within the rules. Worth noting the Johnson markets were only suspended when he was hospitalised though.
That is the purpose of the market. It should not need to be suspended.
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
Hmmm.
Conspiracy theories of all stripes will sprout from this.
Is this is a stunt to stop them by putting in FUD?
Pretty f*cking angry this morning that BF have suspended.
Gulp.