politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Trump and his wife test positive – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited October 2020 in General
imageTrump and his wife test positive – politicalbetting.com

Big news in in the last few minutes (0615BST) is that Trump has Tweeted that he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus. This is what he wrote:

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Positive.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Second

    But takes the prize for breaking the biggest story of the year
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    While I do not wish Trump harm I do hope this is divine intervention and see him stand down due to health reasons
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    If the Reps put someone halfway sensible up, suddenly Biden is exposed as over the hill.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    Big story, does this mean the Supreme Court nomination will still get through? Does it give Trump a face-saving reason for electoral defeat?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Ladbrokes have removed all their 2020 pres election bets
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    IanB2 said:

    If the Reps put someone halfway sensible up, suddenly Biden is exposed as over the hill.

    This could stand the election on it's head
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Biden is at risk.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    CNN: In a memo issued to reporters around 1 a.m. ET, the President’s physician, Navy Commander Dr. Sean Conley, wrote he received confirmation of the positive tests on Thursday evening.

    “The President and First Lady are both well at this time, and they plan to remain at home within the White House during their convalescence,’ Conley wrote.

    ‘The White House medical team and I will maintain a vigilant watch, and I appreciate the support provided by some of our country’s greatest medical professionals and institutions,’ Conley wrote, without elaborating what assistance was being provided to the White House.

    ‘Rest assured I expect the President to continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering, and I will keep you updated on any further developments,’ he wrote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Just a thought.

    This is not a hoax by Trump is it to delay the election
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I wonder if he will use this to pull out and save himself from the humiliation of defeat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    MikeSmithson said:

    I wonder if he will use this to pull out and save himself from the humiliation of defeat.

    Since voting has already started and ballots have been printed, can he pull out?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    You could have got odds of 800 or something on Mike Pence a few days ago. If he should be the winner on November 3, I'd imagine there would be some bragging rights being expressed here.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    The engraver has started putting @Benpointer's name on the Dead Pool trophy.


  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    He always likely to call the doctors in.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just a thought.

    This is not a hoax by Trump is it to delay the election

    No, it could be a hoax but he can't delay the election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Given the way Trump was yelling only a few feet away from Joe Biden I hope Biden’s ok.

    I can see the entire betting markets being voided.

    Grrr....
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    old_labour said:

    You could have got odds of 800 or something on Mike Pence a few days ago. If he should be the winner on November 3, I'd imagine there would be some bragging rights being expressed here.

    I got 200:1 just now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Jonathan said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    I wonder if he will use this to pull out and save himself from the humiliation of defeat.

    Since voting has already started and ballots have been printed, can he pull out?
    Not an image I wanted at 6.30 in the morning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2020
    US ‘expert’ on the BBC saying “potentially problematic” for the president given his age, obesity, lifestyle, and possibility of pre-existing conditions
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes have removed all their 2020 pres election bets

    Big day for the crypto markets, nobody has a "suspend" button.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Underlined what has been good advice all along - laying Trump is better than backing Biden
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    swing_voter said:

    old_labour said:

    You could have got odds of 800 or something on Mike Pence a few days ago. If he should be the winner on November 3, I'd imagine there would be some bragging rights being expressed here.

    I got 200:1 just now.
    If your bet came in, I wonder who be happier, you or Melania?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Nasty at Donald's age and weight.

    I am green on Pence.

    Concerned re Biden, though they kept apart.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    I guess the debates are off.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    IanB2 said:

    US ‘expert’ on the BBC saying “potentially problematic” for the president given his age, obesity, lifestyle, and possibility of pre-existing conditions

    I saw him on TV saying he would be the fittest president ever while recalling Obama playing basketball in the White House.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edmundintokyo said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes have removed all their 2020 pres election bets

    Big day for the crypto markets, nobody has a "suspend" button.
    Reference to “this evening” in the official comment suggests this has been known for some hours before Trump’s tweet. And the out of hours Wall Street market has been trending down all night.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Argh, just a few minutes too late to try and cover my Biden bet for president, which I'd thought was looking very tasty.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Jonathan said:

    I guess the debates are off.

    Zoom?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    I feel sympathy for both him , his wife and Margaret Ferrier - all 3 are of an age where to catch the disease can be a big deal. Trump and Ferrier have both earned opprobrium for many and varied reasons but a potentially serious illness is not a joking matter. I hope they all recover speedily and without longer-term harm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Remember, Don, karma’s only a bitch if you are.

    But this is going to cause chaos.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Foxy said:

    Nasty at Donald's age and weight.

    I am green on Pence.

    Concerned re Biden, though they kept apart.

    Biden also apparently wore a mask when they met directly, which Trump mocked him for,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Laddish said:

    For background: Trump has espoused a crazy theory according to which each person is born with a fixed amount of "energy", as if they were a battery, and therefore they shouldn't exercise too much. (Source.) Added to "inject disinfectant" and "the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency", the indications are that he is unusually at risk healthwise even for his demographic of a 74yo male with a BMI of 30.4. On the plus side, he doesn't drink.

    Other than bleach, of course.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2020
    Foxy said:

    Nasty at Donald's age and weight.

    I am green on Pence.

    Concerned re Biden, though they kept apart.

    Are you the GP on the BBC saying this now? ;)

    And saying that day 7-10 is the biggest risk point when the immune system can go into overdrive
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nasty at Donald's age and weight.

    I am green on Pence.

    Concerned re Biden, though they kept apart.

    Biden also apparently wore a mask when they met directly, which Trump mocked him for,
    Will that help if the person who was not wearing one was the one with the virus? My understanding was that they’re effective in reducing transmission when infected people are wearing them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited October 2020
    Odds on that another member of the brood comes down with it?

    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1311901788472254464?s=20
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/trumps-family-didnt-wear-masks-during-presidential-debate_uk_5f75813bc5b6374c5589361e
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    IanB2 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes have removed all their 2020 pres election bets

    Big day for the crypto markets, nobody has a "suspend" button.
    Reference to “this evening” in the official comment suggests this has been known for some hours before Trump’s tweet. And the out of hours Wall Street market has been trending down all night.
    We've been speculating about it for a few hours, because he announced he was going into quarantine pending a test, and since they do quickie tests all the time, that implied that the quickie test must have shown positive.

    But I guess some people probably knew before that, and there's also an inside information issue where only his doctors and people close to him will know how likely he is to die.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Sympathy vote incoming?

    While could be nasty, need not be.

    Just hope Biden doesn't test positive. I would assume he's either had, or about to have, a test.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    OldKingCole said:

    Sympathy vote incoming?

    Yes, Dems should refrain from posting things like this, however funny they may be:

    https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1311902220196016128
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Feel for US Trumpsters with “Covid is a hoax” posters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    The limited amount of energy idea is not completely daft:

    https://www.sciencealert.com/relationship-between-heart-beat-and-life-expectancy
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Trump will no doubt ‘defeat the virus and be the fittest president ever’ on polling day. It would be difficult if Biden were to get sick in a couple of weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    OldKingCole said:

    Sympathy vote incoming?

    While could be nasty, need not be.

    Just hope Biden doesn't test positive. I would assume he's either had, or about to have, a test.

    An election where both candidates died before polling day would be quite something.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Makes the VP debates look interesting? When/are they occurring? Has there been much discussion on them?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edmundintokyo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just a thought.

    This is not a hoax by Trump is it to delay the election

    No, it could be a hoax but he can't delay the election.
    If it were a hoax, he would emerge after a week or two having breezed through the illness and hope for a big sympathy vote.

    But the risk of being discovered as a hoax is surely too great.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sympathy vote incoming?

    While could be nasty, need not be.

    Just hope Biden doesn't test positive. I would assume he's either had, or about to have, a test.

    An election where both candidates died before polling day would be quite something.
    I wonder if in the medium term this could reverse the trend of very old Presidential candidates.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Odds on that another member of the brood comes down with it?

    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1311901788472254464?s=20

    One wonders if Melania already had mild symptoms, to be sticking out from her family like that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sympathy vote incoming?

    While could be nasty, need not be.

    Just hope Biden doesn't test positive. I would assume he's either had, or about to have, a test.

    An election where both candidates died before polling day would be quite something.
    I wonder if in the medium term this could reverse the trend of very old Presidential candidates.
    It would be nice to think that the key change will be to reverse a recent trend towards very stupid ones.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sympathy vote incoming?

    While could be nasty, need not be.

    Just hope Biden doesn't test positive. I would assume he's either had, or about to have, a test.

    An election where both candidates died before polling day would be quite something.
    I wonder if in the medium term this could reverse the trend of very old Presidential candidates.
    It might in the very short term too!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edmundintokyo said:

    IanB2 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ladbrokes have removed all their 2020 pres election bets

    Big day for the crypto markets, nobody has a "suspend" button.
    Reference to “this evening” in the official comment suggests this has been known for some hours before Trump’s tweet. And the out of hours Wall Street market has been trending down all night.
    We've been speculating about it for a few hours, because he announced he was going into quarantine pending a test, and since they do quickie tests all the time, that implied that the quickie test must have shown positive.

    But I guess some people probably knew before that, and there's also an inside information issue where only his doctors and people close to him will know how likely he is to die.
    Maybe a few, select insiders have made a killing on various markets and I am not talking about Betfair.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    If one, or, God forbid, both candidates were to die before polling day, what are the rules? I would assume that if a President-elect dies, then the normal succession arrangements apply.

    IIRC FDR wasn't too well in late Autumn 1944.
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173
    Or it is just a mad tactic to avoid the next Presidential debate on 15 October. (Within the 14 days isolation period).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    IanB2 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just a thought.

    This is not a hoax by Trump is it to delay the election

    No, it could be a hoax but he can't delay the election.
    If it were a hoax, he would emerge after a week or two having breezed through the illness and hope for a big sympathy vote.

    But the risk of being discovered as a hoax is surely too great.
    I don't think he has to worry about the risk of being discovered, he gets to choose his doctors and the people saying it was a hoax will sound bonkers. And he's losing anyhow. So yes, it could be this.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    I`ve just woken up to this news.

    So, he`s tested positive - doesn`t mean that he`s ill. Do we know if he is ill?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    OldKingCole said:

    If one, or, God forbid, both candidates were to die before polling day, what are the rules? I would assume that if a President-elect dies, then the normal succession arrangements apply.

    IIRC FDR wasn't too well in late Autumn 1944.

    The Electoral College will have to cast votes for other candidates, as the official nominees will be ineligible.

    The only previous time a candidate died during the election process, in 1872, electors pledged to Greeley mostly but not all voted for his Vice Presidential candidate. That’s probably good enough precedent for electors to vote for Veep nominees.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Foxy said:

    The limited amount of energy idea is not completely daft:

    https://www.sciencealert.com/relationship-between-heart-beat-and-life-expectancy

    Don’t mammals tend to live for similar totals? Thus an elephant heart beats very slowly and a hamster very fast?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    OldKingCole said:

    If one, or, God forbid, both candidates were to die before polling day, what are the rules? I would assume that if a President-elect dies, then the normal succession arrangements apply.

    IIRC FDR wasn't too well in late Autumn 1944.

    One thing is for sure - it offers increased potential for states/electors to break ranks from certifying for the polling winner in the Electoral college...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Stocky said:

    I`ve just woken up to this news.

    So, he`s tested positive - doesn`t mean that he`s ill. Do we know if he is ill?

    He is ill but not sick, if that is what you mean.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    swing_voter said:

    Big story, does this mean the Supreme Court nomination will still get through? Does it give Trump a face-saving reason for electoral defeat?

    On your second point, I`ve posted multiple time since the beginning of January that I was laying Trump partly because I suspected that he wouldn`t run. I`m not generally one for conspiracy theories but my immediate thought is this could be a ruse to give him a reason to pull out of the race because he is at last convinced that he cannot win it - and his delicate ego cannot take defeat.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    LostPassword said:

    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.

    Yes, I'm sure that they'll find some Dem somewhere celebrating unwisely. Biden is good at this kind of thing, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    LostPassword said:

    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.

    Publicly, none of them.

    Privately, I imagine they’re torn between amusement at Trump’s new predicament and fear that Biden might be affected.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edmundintokyo said:

    LostPassword said:

    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.

    Yes, I'm sure that they'll find some Dem somewhere celebrating unwisely. Biden is good at this kind of thing, though.
    If (if!) Biden isn’t infected, this may well be good news for him politically. He does dignified non-partisan sympathy very well. Much better than detailed policy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    I think the most surprising thing is not that Trump has covid, but it has taken this long to get it.

    How many press conferences have we seen him do, with 10s of people all huddled closely together, how many visits to factories etc without wearing a mask and of course the rallies where people have later died after attending.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    State markets just suspended on Betfair exchange
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    ydoethur said:

    LostPassword said:

    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.

    Publicly, none of them.

    Privately, I imagine they’re torn between amusement at Trump’s new predicament and fear that Biden might be affected.
    The Dem Party need to come out fast - firstly to confirm Biden has not tested positive and secondly to express sincere-sounding sentimients re Trump and the First Lady.

    (Maybe they`ve done this already in which case I apologise - I`m catching up.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    LostPassword said:

    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.

    Yes, I'm sure that they'll find some Dem somewhere celebrating unwisely. Biden is good at this kind of thing, though.
    If (if!) Biden isn’t infected, this may well be good news for him politically. He does dignified non-partisan sympathy very well. Much better than detailed policy.
    Has anybody informed Joe Biden that he has detailed policies?

    With a month to go, I don't think I have heard either candidate outline anything in detail. Trump doesn't even have build a wall or lock her up this time.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    LostPassword said:

    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.

    Yes, I'm sure that they'll find some Dem somewhere celebrating unwisely. Biden is good at this kind of thing, though.
    If (if!) Biden isn’t infected, this may well be good news for him politically. He does dignified non-partisan sympathy very well. Much better than detailed policy.
    Has anybody informed Joe Biden that he has detailed policies?

    With a month to go, I don't think I have heard either candidate outline anything in detail. Trump doesn't even have build a wall or lock her up this time.
    https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Couple of things - how much, if any, mixing goes on between senior Republican and Democrat campaign staff? At the very least they’re likely to come across each other in media studios?

    Is it possible that we see candidates undermined (even at the margins)by people starting to opt for write in candidates on the ballot papers?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Of course, the flipside is that if he got ill but it was mild for him and he goes on to win again then there could be massive implications as to how the US actually moves forward in the coronavirus fight.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Are we, and the betting markets, getting a bit carried away?

    A summary:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-covid-test-melania-hope-hicks-coronavirus-white-house-quarantine-what-we-know-so-far

    I`ve got a few bob on Pence - and Trump pulling out and Pence becoming POTUS may be my best betting outcome. (Not that I think that`s going to happen at this point.) As long as BF don`t void my Trump lay bets if he pulled out through ill health. Could they do that?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Betfair have suspended their markets too.

    Again, why?

    Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    What length of time without a Trump tweet would indicate a deterioration in his illness?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    alex_ said:

    Couple of things - how much, if any, mixing goes on between senior Republican and Democrat campaign staff? At the very least they’re likely to come across each other in media studios?

    Is it possible that we see candidates undermined (even at the margins)by people starting to opt for write in candidates on the ballot papers?

    It does seem as if Hope Hicks was the contact, so Trump possibly was infected on the way to the event.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hope-hicks-president-trumps-closest-advisers-tests-positive/story?id=73377363
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    If two people (ie Trump and his wife) both have CV is it more dangerous if they don’t quarantine from each other?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edmundintokyo said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    LostPassword said:

    We saw the phrase "poetic justice" used on here, and I'm sure more people will think it than say it, but what level of seniority among Democrats will be stupid enough to publicly declare the sentiment?

    Trump is not a person who ever elicits much in the way of sympathy, but being ill with Covid might just do it. And if some Democrats are stupid enough to publicly express their desire for him to drop dead of it, there might be repercussions.

    Yes, I'm sure that they'll find some Dem somewhere celebrating unwisely. Biden is good at this kind of thing, though.
    If (if!) Biden isn’t infected, this may well be good news for him politically. He does dignified non-partisan sympathy very well. Much better than detailed policy.
    Has anybody informed Joe Biden that he has detailed policies?

    With a month to go, I don't think I have heard either candidate outline anything in detail. Trump doesn't even have build a wall or lock her up this time.
    https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/
    Somebody better tell Joe about that website....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1311910738269790211
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Could the debate go ahead with Pence? After all his job is to step up as anx when required.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Casino_Royale said:

    Betfair have suspended their markets too.

    Again, why?

    Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.

    After everyone suspended the market's when Boris got the 'Rona it was always going to happen if Biden/Trump got it.

    I was warning people to expect it to happen.

    Personally I feel it is basically dishonest by the bookies, as you say acturial risk has to have been factored into decisions by everyone betting on the markets.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Of course if he recovers then that's the end of anti-Covid measures in the US.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1311908904444592129
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Betfair have suspended their markets too.

    Again, why?

    Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.

    After everyone suspended the market's when Boris got the 'Rona it was always going to happen if Biden/Trump got it.

    I was warning people to expect it to happen.

    Personally I feel it is basically dishonest by the bookies, as you say acturial risk has to have been factored into decisions by everyone betting on the markets.
    It`s nothing to do with actuarial risk. It`s about bookies being frightened of bad press.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Does it count as an October surprise if the individual was engaged in highly risky behaviour
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    OldBasing said:

    Or it is just a mad tactic to avoid the next Presidential debate on 15 October. (Within the 14 days isolation period).

    If he does it via a video link they can at least mute him during Biden's answers.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    alex_ said:

    If two people (ie Trump and his wife) both have CV is it more dangerous if they don’t quarantine from each other?

    That`s a good question - Foxy?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1311910738269790211

    When the mighty E-4 Nightwatch takes to the skies is the time to start worrying.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    It would be possible for the second debate to go ahead remotely if Trump is not actually ill but would he want that? A remote Trump can be silenced, controlled and made to behave in a fairly normal kind of fashion. That is really not his style although his best bet for winning the Presidency is probably to let Biden speak for more than 5 words at a time and expose the incoherence and paucity of thought.

    What a mess the US has got itself into. What were they thinking on either side of the aisle?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    And here I was thinking the Melania tape was going to be the thing people would be talking about

    https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1311838041531723781
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    lol
    https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1311844035183640576
  • Alasdair_Alasdair_ Posts: 17
    Is this the October surprise Trump promised?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Stocky said:

    swing_voter said:

    Big story, does this mean the Supreme Court nomination will still get through? Does it give Trump a face-saving reason for electoral defeat?

    On your second point, I`ve posted multiple time since the beginning of January that I was laying Trump partly because I suspected that he wouldn`t run. I`m not generally one for conspiracy theories but my immediate thought is this could be a ruse to give him a reason to pull out of the race because he is at last convinced that he cannot win it - and his delicate ego cannot take defeat.
    In which a case, Melania alone among her family wore the mask because she knew what was to happen and didn’t want to be accused of having recklessly put others at risk
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993
    If it’s mild for him, he’ll be all, “Hey, I told you it was nothing to be worried about,” and anti-covid measures vanish from the US. And who knows how it affects his base and swing voters to be told this.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Anyone can catch this but Trump positively invited it in. He's a complete moron and so are those surrounding him.

    If wonder if Melania is hoping he doesn't pull through?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    alex_ said:

    Makes the VP debates look interesting? When/are they occurring? Has there been much discussion on them?

    VP debate is, and watch the time zones because the debates all start at 2am the next morning in dear old Blighty, next Wednesday US or 2am Thursday BST.

    VP Wednesday, 7/10 or 2am Thursday BST
    Pres Thursday 15/10 or 2am Friday BST (or perhaps not if Trump becomes ill)
    Pres Thursday 22/10 or 2am Friday BST
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Alistair said:

    And here I was thinking the Melania tape was going to be the thing people would be talking about

    https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1311838041531723781

    Is she even more bonkers than her husband? Wow.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    Which will come first? The injection of bleach or the anal probe insertion of the UV light?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited October 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    swing_voter said:

    Big story, does this mean the Supreme Court nomination will still get through? Does it give Trump a face-saving reason for electoral defeat?

    On your second point, I`ve posted multiple time since the beginning of January that I was laying Trump partly because I suspected that he wouldn`t run. I`m not generally one for conspiracy theories but my immediate thought is this could be a ruse to give him a reason to pull out of the race because he is at last convinced that he cannot win it - and his delicate ego cannot take defeat.
    In which a case, Melania alone among her family wore the mask because she knew what was to happen and didn’t want to be accused of having recklessly put others at risk
    Good point - ooh, the conspiracy theory deepens
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Mysticrose said:

    Anyone can catch this but Trump positively invited it in. He's a complete moron and so are those surrounding him.

    If wonder if Melania is hoping he doesn't pull through?

    ! That`s a bit strong.
This discussion has been closed.