Interesting question is whether Trump got infected by Hope Hicks - in which case he was very unlikely to have been infectious at the time of the debate - or from a common source which infected both of them. If that were the case, then the risk to Biden from exposure during the debate, while fairly low, is non zero.
The Trumpton's biggest nightmare must be Biden getting Covid and becoming very ill and it being widely perceived that the cause was the recklessness of the Trump clan.
I don't think that's the sort of thing Trump loses any sleep over.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
You have several days' notice of meeting a female?
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
I hadn't seen that, so maybe Betfair would be an exception. However, I do wonder if that is realistic in practice.
I might have mentioned this once or twice on PB, this is turning into a clusterfeck that makes the Theresa May exit date market look like good fun
A key one for me is the Sporting Index market. What the rules say there is:
On the Biden ECV market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or Joe Biden is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
On the Supremacy market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or either candidate is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
Clearly that's an important distinction, stating that if one candidate has to withdraw the other candidate's ECV market still stands, but not the Supremacy market.
It's potentially a real mess, though: what does 'forced to withdraw' mean?
I've long wondered why bookies aren't clearer on this kind of thing.
It's one of those boiler plate hypotheticals you never expect to happen.
I mean there's plenty of ambiguity in parts of the 25th amendment.
I mean what happens if there's a terrorist attack which wipes out Congress and the cabinet and the designated survivor becomes incapacitated by a stroke?
Or doing Acting Secretaries (which haven't been confirmed by the Senate) have the power to remove a President?
Interesting question is whether Trump got infected by Hope Hicks - in which case he was very unlikely to have been infectious at the time of the debate - or from a common source which infected both of them. If that were the case, then the risk to Biden from exposure during the debate, while fairly low, is non zero.
The Trumpton's biggest nightmare must be Biden getting Covid and becoming very ill and it being widely perceived that the cause was the recklessness of the Trump clan.
Another shoe that has yet to drop is that we don't know who else Team Trump have infected on their own side (for example at the fundraiser they apparently did despite knowing that one of them was infected), or among neutrals. What if they've killed Chris Wallace?
So I just looked through all the presidents who died in office and it turns out that in the event that Trump succumbs to covid19, he will be the first in the history of the office to qualify for a Darwin Award.
I would have thought William Henry Harrison qualified for that a 1 hour 45 minute speech on a cold day while already ill resulting in his cold becoming pneumonia
True, also there's Zachary Taylor who died after consuming copious amounts of raw fruit and iced milk, but neither of these feel like they're in the same league.
Interesting question is whether Trump got infected by Hope Hicks - in which case he was very unlikely to have been infectious at the time of the debate - or from a common source which infected both of them. If that were the case, then the risk to Biden from exposure during the debate, while fairly low, is non zero.
The Trumpton's biggest nightmare must be Biden getting Covid and becoming very ill and it being widely perceived that the cause was the recklessness of the Trump clan.
Biden is 77, even older than Trump and at high risk from Covid, he is also the Democratic candidate Trump most feared, especially in the rustbelt.
'As early as last Autumn, Mr Trump was discussing with his aides about the threat posed by the former vice president.
“How are we gonna beat Biden?” he would ask, according to the Republican strategist. After being assured that Mr Biden would never make it out of a tough Democratic primary, Mr Trump pushed back: “But what if he does?” Mr Biden eventually announced his candidacy on Thursday.'
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
Must be a cold sweat on at Betfair this morning.
I would sympathise with them then I remember the logic and fact defying decisions they made on the Theresa May exit date market and the decision they made in 2011 to void the next GE market.
I'm not bitter about that nine years on.
I wasn't on here in 2011, what was that to do with? Fixed term parliament act?
Yes, In November 2011 they sent this email
We are contacting you in reference to bets that you had matched on the – Next UK General Election – Election Date Month & Year Markets.
The rules for the above markets were based on the government, in its usual manner, declaring an official polling date for the next general election. This decision has historically been made by the Prime Minister who asks the Queen to dissolve Parliament.
However, on 15 September 2011, the Fixed Term Parliament Act was passed which sets the date of the next general election at Thursday 7 May 2015 and subsequent elections to be held on the first Thursday of May at five year intervals.
Due to this fundamental change in which future polling dates will be determined, the entire nature of the market has changed from what was intended. We have therefore taken the decision to void both markets in their entirety.
We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
But the FTPA had been law for 2 months and the FTPA had been a key demand of the Lib Dems from the start of the coalition so plenty of us had been betting on this market since May 2010 but Betfair acted like this had only just happened and was a surprise to everyone when it clearly wasn't.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
Interesting question is whether Trump got infected by Hope Hicks - in which case he was very unlikely to have been infectious at the time of the debate - or from a common source which infected both of them. If that were the case, then the risk to Biden from exposure during the debate, while fairly low, is non zero.
The Trumpton's biggest nightmare must be Biden getting Covid and becoming very ill and it being widely perceived that the cause was the recklessness of the Trump clan.
I don't think that's the sort of thing Trump loses any sleep over.
So Nicola has shown herself to be a better lead than Johnson ever will be.
Cummings should also have resigned.
I agree but, to rub salt, Cummings didn't even apologise. That was the kicker for me - yes he should have resigned but, failing that, an apolgy along the lines of "I don't think what I did was legally incorrect, but I accept that someone in my position should set a better example". I think that would have been worth an extra 2 or 3 points to the Tories by now.
As it was, the complete lack of contrition just added to the growing unease about how the Govt was handling it, like a steady drip against a rock. eating away against a commanding lead. I said at the time, those opposed to the Tories should have been hoping and praying for Cummings NOT to resign or be fired, and so it has proved. I think Starmer agreed with me. He watches this board like a hawk waiting for me to post I bet.
Actually, it was even worse than that. Cummings could have said nothing at all. Instead, we had that farrago in the Rose Garden about how none of it was his fault, it was the media or the public not understanding. I'm not sure he could have got away with an apology; Operation Hard Rain simply wouldn't be credible after Dom had admitted human frailty, but Dom's attempt to prove that he was right did him and the government a lot more harm than good.
It's a big issue for the crypto markets because anybody can create a market, so the market creator is potentially trying to trick you.
I think one problem is that the more circumstances you try to address in the detail, the more you increase the chances that the terms contradict the commonsense reading of the title.
One thing anyone who works in IT will know is that while computers need things to be black and white in reality the world is shades of grey most of which will only be revealed far later. Which is no good for crypto or betting markets where you need to identify all scenarios prior to creating the market.
I was expecting the conspiracists to blame the Democrats and their deep state friends as Trump had so convincingly won the first debate that this was their only option.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
There is a theory that the terrible French resurgence in Covid is just because the French won’t give up the social kiss - la bise.
Whereas non-kissing, non-handshaking Thailand has barely seen any Covid at all....
I am the last person to have Trump derangement syndrome, but is anyone else a tiny bit suspicious of the timing of his COVID diagnosis?
It's just as he is getting headlines for "supporting white supremacy" and feels like a last roll of the dice for him.
Also the media are having to dial down their anti-Trump rhetoric in the runup to the election as you saw already from the Washington Post.
I have a 25% suspicion that it's a stunt. To be sure it isn't - or indeed to be even more suspicious that it is - I would need to know what the procedures were around the test. In particular who was involved other than Trump and his doctor.
I am the last person to have Trump derangement syndrome, but is anyone else a tiny bit suspicious of the timing of his COVID diagnosis?
It's just as he is getting headlines for "supporting white supremacy" and feels like a last roll of the dice for him.
Also the media are having to dial down their anti-Trump rhetoric in the runup to the election as you saw already from the Washington Post.
I have a 25% suspicion that it's a stunt. To be sure it isn't - or indeed to be even more suspicious that it is - I would need to know what the procedures were around the test. In particular who was involved other than Trump and his doctor.
It wouldn't surprise me if he's already had it and recovered from it secretly, then made the announcement he has it when he feels he most needs it.
Things are looking dire in the polls for him and something needs to turn up right now.
26% see ending lockdown as a mistake? What did they want, a full year of lockdown even when cases were very low in the summer?
People have to go out and earn a living sometime.
Irrelevant. Binary questions will get binary answers. All judgement, qualification and discernment gets filtered out by the process. People have to give the answer closest to what they want to say.
Notice as well that the only two categories where fewer were against the change than in favour were the two (pubs and students) that affected minorities not majorities adversely. Self interest rules as ever.
It's a big issue for the crypto markets because anybody can create a market, so the market creator is potentially trying to trick you.
I think one problem is that the more circumstances you try to address in the detail, the more you increase the chances that the terms contradict the commonsense reading of the title.
One thing anyone who works in IT will know is that while computers need things to be black and white in reality the world is shades of grey most of which will only be revealed far later. Which is no good for crypto or betting markets where you need to identify all scenarios prior to creating the market.
Well the systems running at the moment are ultimately settled by humans (but using various cryptoeconomics techniques to try to get the humans doing the settlement to tell the truth).
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
I'd give her a little more credit. She's directly risking a seat on political principle.
On principle?
Or because it is what she thinks is most politically advantageous to distance herself from this mess?
26% see ending lockdown as a mistake? What did they want, a full year of lockdown even when cases were very low in the summer?
People have to go out and earn a living sometime.
It is worse than that, because 1-3 cumulatively come to the same thing as "ending lockdown." The appetite is for permanent lockdown, but where you can still go clothes shopping in groups of 7.
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
I'd give her a little more credit. She's directly risking a seat on political principle.
No, she's good, Sturgeon, in this department. She clearly has integrity.
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
Must be a cold sweat on at Betfair this morning.
I would sympathise with them then I remember the logic and fact defying decisions they made on the Theresa May exit date market and the decision they made in 2011 to void the next GE market.
I'm not bitter about that nine years on.
I wasn't on here in 2011, what was that to do with? Fixed term parliament act?
Yes, In November 2011 they sent this email
We are contacting you in reference to bets that you had matched on the – Next UK General Election – Election Date Month & Year Markets.
The rules for the above markets were based on the government, in its usual manner, declaring an official polling date for the next general election. This decision has historically been made by the Prime Minister who asks the Queen to dissolve Parliament.
However, on 15 September 2011, the Fixed Term Parliament Act was passed which sets the date of the next general election at Thursday 7 May 2015 and subsequent elections to be held on the first Thursday of May at five year intervals.
Due to this fundamental change in which future polling dates will be determined, the entire nature of the market has changed from what was intended. We have therefore taken the decision to void both markets in their entirety.
We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
But the FTPA had been law for 2 months and the FTPA had been a key demand of the Lib Dems from the start of the coalition so plenty of us had been betting on this market since May 2010 but Betfair acted like this had only just happened and was a surprise to everyone when it clearly wasn't.
It does make you wonder to what extent Betfair play their own markets.
Implementing the eat out to help scheme whilst keeping pubs and restaurants closed is an interesting position for some of the public to support.
I don't see allowing restaurants to open as an option there.
The public may be drawing a distinction between pubs and restaurants when in reality a large proportion of venues are both.
Cant remember the last time I went to a pub that didnt serve food. And the vast majority of restaurants serve alcohol.
If the great British public can't work out things like that without being emotionally influenced by the word pub, it is another reminder of why governing by opinion poll is such a disaster.
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
I'd give her a little more credit. She's directly risking a seat on political principle.
On principle?
Or because it is what she thinks is most politically advantageous to distance herself from this mess?
Good stuff from NS
Well, she pretty much had to take this line, but I suppose you could have said the same re Boris re Cummings, and he didn't.
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
I'd give her a little more credit. She's directly risking a seat on political principle.
No, she's good, Sturgeon, in this department. She clearly has integrity.
I was expecting the conspiracists to blame the Democrats and their deep state friends as Trump had so convincingly won the first debate that this was their only option.
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
I hadn't seen that, so maybe Betfair would be an exception. However, I do wonder if that is realistic in practice.
I might have mentioned this once or twice on PB, this is turning into a clusterfeck that makes the Theresa May exit date market look like good fun
A key one for me is the Sporting Index market. What the rules say there is:
On the Biden ECV market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or Joe Biden is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
On the Supremacy market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or either candidate is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
Clearly that's an important distinction, stating that if one candidate has to withdraw the other candidate's ECV market still stands, but not the Supremacy market.
It's potentially a real mess, though: what does 'forced to withdraw' mean?
I've long wondered why bookies aren't clearer on this kind of thing.
That to me seems an illogical difference. The EC supremacy market is the delta between Biden EC and opponent EC.
Implementing the eat out to help scheme whilst keeping pubs and restaurants closed is an interesting position for some of the public to support.
I don't see allowing restaurants to open as an option there.
The public may be drawing a distinction between pubs and restaurants when in reality a large proportion of venues are both.
I think that's true - and I think people are really drawing the distinction between a "drinking pub" and a "family pub or restaurant" in their minds when they think about those two questions. The problem is that it is somewhat harder to draw that distinction in law...
My mates in the industry are struggling with the logic because it is "obvious" that a small restaurant at 10pm is not the same as a large pub at 10pm. But how do you police that fairly? (For transparency: I declare a financial interest in such a small restaurant.)
So Nicola has shown herself to be a better lead than Johnson ever will be.
Cummings should also have resigned.
I agree but, to rub salt, Cummings didn't even apologise. That was the kicker for me - yes he should have resigned but, failing that, an apolgy along the lines of "I don't think what I did was legally incorrect, but I accept that someone in my position should set a better example". I think that would have been worth an extra 2 or 3 points to the Tories by now.
As it was, the complete lack of contrition just added to the growing unease about how the Govt was handling it, like a steady drip against a rock. eating away against a commanding lead. I said at the time, those opposed to the Tories should have been hoping and praying for Cummings NOT to resign or be fired, and so it has proved. I think Starmer agreed with me. He watches this board like a hawk waiting for me to post I bet.
Actually, it was even worse than that. Cummings could have said nothing at all. Instead, we had that farrago in the Rose Garden about how none of it was his fault, it was the media or the public not understanding. I'm not sure he could have got away with an apology; Operation Hard Rain simply wouldn't be credible after Dom had admitted human frailty, but Dom's attempt to prove that he was right did him and the government a lot more harm than good.
Am I the only one confused by this hard rain metaphor? What is hard rain? Hailstones? Is this some cultural reference that has passed me by?
Implementing the eat out to help scheme whilst keeping pubs and restaurants closed is an interesting position for some of the public to support.
I don't see allowing restaurants to open as an option there.
The public may be drawing a distinction between pubs and restaurants when in reality a large proportion of venues are both.
I think that's true - and I think people are really drawing the distinction between a "drinking pub" and a "family pub or restaurant" in their minds when they think about those two questions. The problem is that it is somewhat harder to draw that distinction in law...
My mates in the industry are struggling with the logic because it is "obvious" that a small restaurant at 10pm is not the same as a large pub at 10pm. But how do you police that fairly? (For transparency: I declare a financial interest in such a small restaurant.)
My son runs a bar - they enforce the rules
He went past a restaurant which was packed - loads of people standing at the bar, no distancing.
He reported them to the police - only action a warning.
Son is fuming as he reckons they would get shut down in a heartbeat if they allowed that
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
There is a theory that the terrible French resurgence in Covid is just because the French won’t give up the social kiss - la bise.
Whereas non-kissing, non-handshaking Thailand has barely seen any Covid at all....
There are places in Thailand where there's quite a lot of kissing.
Implementing the eat out to help scheme whilst keeping pubs and restaurants closed is an interesting position for some of the public to support.
I don't see allowing restaurants to open as an option there.
The public may be drawing a distinction between pubs and restaurants when in reality a large proportion of venues are both.
I think that's true - and I think people are really drawing the distinction between a "drinking pub" and a "family pub or restaurant" in their minds when they think about those two questions. The problem is that it is somewhat harder to draw that distinction in law...
My mates in the industry are struggling with the logic because it is "obvious" that a small restaurant at 10pm is not the same as a large pub at 10pm. But how do you police that fairly? (For transparency: I declare a financial interest in such a small restaurant.)
My son runs a bar - they enforce the rules
He went past a restaurant which was packed - loads of people standing at the bar, no distancing.
He reported them to the police - only action a warning.
Son is fuming as he reckons they would get shut down in a heartbeat if they allowed that
That's the issue - the police take an action that you know you wouldn't get offered yourself.
So Nicola has shown herself to be a better lead than Johnson ever will be.
Cummings should also have resigned.
I agree but, to rub salt, Cummings didn't even apologise. That was the kicker for me - yes he should have resigned but, failing that, an apolgy along the lines of "I don't think what I did was legally incorrect, but I accept that someone in my position should set a better example". I think that would have been worth an extra 2 or 3 points to the Tories by now.
As it was, the complete lack of contrition just added to the growing unease about how the Govt was handling it, like a steady drip against a rock. eating away against a commanding lead. I said at the time, those opposed to the Tories should have been hoping and praying for Cummings NOT to resign or be fired, and so it has proved. I think Starmer agreed with me. He watches this board like a hawk waiting for me to post I bet.
Actually, it was even worse than that. Cummings could have said nothing at all. Instead, we had that farrago in the Rose Garden about how none of it was his fault, it was the media or the public not understanding. I'm not sure he could have got away with an apology; Operation Hard Rain simply wouldn't be credible after Dom had admitted human frailty, but Dom's attempt to prove that he was right did him and the government a lot more harm than good.
Am I the only one confused by this hard rain metaphor? What is hard rain? Hailstones? Is this some cultural reference that has passed me by?
Whenever I see/hear 'Hard Rain' I think of Bob Dylan.
That to me seems an illogical difference. The EC supremacy market is the delta between Biden EC and opponent EC.
It's perfectly logical in principle: If Biden withdraws, the Biden ECV market is voided but the Trump ECV market stands because he hasn't withdrawn. If Trump withdraws, the Trump ECV market is voided but the Biden ECV market stands because he hasn't withdrawn. If either withdraws, the Supremacy market is voided because it's the delta between two figures one of which is not considered not valid.
In practice, though, I'm not sure it's sustainable. The market is essentially about the Trump/Biden contest and only the Trump/Biden contest. The whole basis of the market would be invalid if one of them withdraws.
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
Must be a cold sweat on at Betfair this morning.
I would sympathise with them then I remember the logic and fact defying decisions they made on the Theresa May exit date market and the decision they made in 2011 to void the next GE market.
I'm not bitter about that nine years on.
I wasn't on here in 2011, what was that to do with? Fixed term parliament act?
Yes, In November 2011 they sent this email
We are contacting you in reference to bets that you had matched on the – Next UK General Election – Election Date Month & Year Markets.
The rules for the above markets were based on the government, in its usual manner, declaring an official polling date for the next general election. This decision has historically been made by the Prime Minister who asks the Queen to dissolve Parliament.
However, on 15 September 2011, the Fixed Term Parliament Act was passed which sets the date of the next general election at Thursday 7 May 2015 and subsequent elections to be held on the first Thursday of May at five year intervals.
Due to this fundamental change in which future polling dates will be determined, the entire nature of the market has changed from what was intended. We have therefore taken the decision to void both markets in their entirety.
We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
But the FTPA had been law for 2 months and the FTPA had been a key demand of the Lib Dems from the start of the coalition so plenty of us had been betting on this market since May 2010 but Betfair acted like this had only just happened and was a surprise to everyone when it clearly wasn't.
Did they have any other justification? It looks like an incomprehensible decision? The T May exit date I think they got wrong but can understand where they were coming from at least.
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
Keep it, Walmart will retain a significant shareholding in Asda once the deal goes through.
So why has Trump come out as Covid positive today:
"American Airlines says it shedding 19,000 workers and United Airlines 13,000"
A large, orange dead cat?
Too many pieces of bad news that it is highly unlikely this was deliberately announced to cover one of them. It's most likely it was simply announced after the diagnosis.
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
Keep it, Walmart will retain a significant shareholding in Asda once the deal goes through.
Right. So they're releasing equity while keeping a stake and route to market.
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
Must be a cold sweat on at Betfair this morning.
I would sympathise with them then I remember the logic and fact defying decisions they made on the Theresa May exit date market and the decision they made in 2011 to void the next GE market.
I'm not bitter about that nine years on.
I wasn't on here in 2011, what was that to do with? Fixed term parliament act?
Yes, In November 2011 they sent this email
We are contacting you in reference to bets that you had matched on the – Next UK General Election – Election Date Month & Year Markets.
The rules for the above markets were based on the government, in its usual manner, declaring an official polling date for the next general election. This decision has historically been made by the Prime Minister who asks the Queen to dissolve Parliament.
However, on 15 September 2011, the Fixed Term Parliament Act was passed which sets the date of the next general election at Thursday 7 May 2015 and subsequent elections to be held on the first Thursday of May at five year intervals.
Due to this fundamental change in which future polling dates will be determined, the entire nature of the market has changed from what was intended. We have therefore taken the decision to void both markets in their entirety.
We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
But the FTPA had been law for 2 months and the FTPA had been a key demand of the Lib Dems from the start of the coalition so plenty of us had been betting on this market since May 2010 but Betfair acted like this had only just happened and was a surprise to everyone when it clearly wasn't.
Did they have any other justification? It looks like an incomprehensible decision? The T May exit date I think they got wrong but can understand where they were coming from at least.
My own theory is that a trader had completely ignored the news and had a huge liability on a 2015 GE, only way to cover their arse.
Carole being schooled by YouGov now? She really needs to put down twitter for a bit.
They're making an assumption though, aren't they? Initially Matt Singh compared party polling, to Cadwalladr mentioning Boris' popularity. Now YouGov are comparing party popularity to Boris' popularity.
There's a good chance YouGov are right, but if they only have one data point for Boris between mid March and mid May, then it's still an assumption. The big story at the start of lockdown was Rishi announcing huge amounts of spending - how do they know he wasn't driving the Tory increase, while Boris was still missing?
If you look at 10th May, Boris is still on +22%, while the govt approval is down to 7% - You could easily ask why he's so much more popular than the govt in the weeks after his illness?
Pollsters spend most of their time (reasonably) telling us not to read too much into things, or adding caveats to their data, so I still think Matt Singh and YouGov's response to this is far too dismissive.
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
Walmart have been trying to dump Asda for ages - it was at best a margin-dilutive part of their empire. They have sold it for just £100m more than they bought it for in 1999 so thats a chunky real-terms loss.
The Issa brothers are a brilliant British success story. Second generation migrants who have built up a business that 2 years after Walmart acquired Asda started with a single petrol station and 19 years later is worth billions. Quite literally self-made, but like so many of the other British Asian megastars in my industry they are modest and little known outside of it.
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
Keep it, Walmart will retain a significant shareholding in Asda once the deal goes through.
Right. So they're releasing equity while keeping a stake and route to market.
The majority of the business is being sold - they're ditching a liability not releasing equity. The idea is that their retained stake will bring in revenue to them for a change rather than drain it.
Carole being schooled by YouGov now? She really needs to put down twitter for a bit.
They're making an assumption though, aren't they? Initially Matt Singh compared party polling, to Cadwalladr mentioning Boris' popularity. Now YouGov are comparing party popularity to Boris' popularity.
There's a good chance YouGov are right, but if they only have one data point for Boris between mid March and mid May, then it's still an assumption. The big story at the start of lockdown was Rishi announcing huge amounts of spending - how do they know he wasn't driving the Tory increase, while Boris was still missing?
If you look at 10th May, Boris is still on +22%, while the govt approval is down to 7% - You could easily ask why he's so much more popular than the govt in the weeks after his illness?
Pollsters spend most of their time (reasonably) telling us not to read too much into things, or adding caveats to their data, so I still think Matt Singh and YouGov's response to this is far too dismissive.
The leadership approval ratings tell the same story. A surge at the end of March, not during April:
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
6.8 billion. Not peanuts
But equally nowhere near the amount of money Walmart would have got if it had merged with Sainsburys.
The takeover isn't actually that surprising - everyone else was looking at separating off the freehold premises and selling them to repay the purchase price.
And while Walmart didn't want to spend a lot of management time focussed on the UK, they do seem to want to keep an interest and grab the decent staff.
So I just looked through all the presidents who died in office and it turns out that in the event that Trump succumbs to covid19, he will be the first in the history of the office to qualify for a Darwin Award.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
You have several days' notice of meeting a female?
It sounds a bit "Mike Pence", I know, but yes I'm afraid it's true.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
You have several days' notice of meeting a female?
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
Kinabalu outs himself as Mike Pence.
- drat, just posted similar remark before seeing this, now looks like I'm nicking jokes.
Carole being schooled by YouGov now? She really needs to put down twitter for a bit.
They're making an assumption though, aren't they? Initially Matt Singh compared party polling, to Cadwalladr mentioning Boris' popularity. Now YouGov are comparing party popularity to Boris' popularity.
There's a good chance YouGov are right, but if they only have one data point for Boris between mid March and mid May, then it's still an assumption. The big story at the start of lockdown was Rishi announcing huge amounts of spending - how do they know he wasn't driving the Tory increase, while Boris was still missing?
If you look at 10th May, Boris is still on +22%, while the govt approval is down to 7% - You could easily ask why he's so much more popular than the govt in the weeks after his illness?
Pollsters spend most of their time (reasonably) telling us not to read too much into things, or adding caveats to their data, so I still think Matt Singh and YouGov's response to this is far too dismissive.
The leadership approval ratings tell the same story. A surge at the end of March, not during April:
YouGov have just backtracked as they do have more data, and it shows that Boris popularity did rise after he went into ICU. I wouldn't read too much into it, but I don't think Matt Singh comes out of this looking particularly clever.
“It’s hard to imagine this doesn’t end his hopes of re-election,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant, pointing to Mr. Trump’s “flaunting of obvious precautions.”
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
You have several days' notice of meeting a female?
Perhaps he's a member of the same sect as Pence ?
Don't worry, if the Trump succumbs to the pox then under President Pence you won't need to worry about this. The womenfolk will be kept in their own home suckling babies and cooking apple pie.
Well Melania didn't contract the virus through close proximity to Trump in the immediate aftermath of the debate.
She absolutely didn't catch it from his precious bodily fluids. You get the distinct impression that she despises the man - perhaps his aides and her aides have been clustered together. Any news on VP Gilead?
Carole being schooled by YouGov now? She really needs to put down twitter for a bit.
They're making an assumption though, aren't they? Initially Matt Singh compared party polling, to Cadwalladr mentioning Boris' popularity. Now YouGov are comparing party popularity to Boris' popularity.
There's a good chance YouGov are right, but if they only have one data point for Boris between mid March and mid May, then it's still an assumption. The big story at the start of lockdown was Rishi announcing huge amounts of spending - how do they know he wasn't driving the Tory increase, while Boris was still missing?
If you look at 10th May, Boris is still on +22%, while the govt approval is down to 7% - You could easily ask why he's so much more popular than the govt in the weeks after his illness?
Pollsters spend most of their time (reasonably) telling us not to read too much into things, or adding caveats to their data, so I still think Matt Singh and YouGov's response to this is far too dismissive.
The leadership approval ratings tell the same story. A surge at the end of March, not during April:
YouGov have just backtracked as they do have more data, and it shows that Boris popularity did rise after he went into ICU. I wouldn't read too much into it, but I don't think Matt Singh comes out of this looking particularly clever.
Implementing the eat out to help scheme whilst keeping pubs and restaurants closed is an interesting position for some of the public to support.
I don't see allowing restaurants to open as an option there.
The public may be drawing a distinction between pubs and restaurants when in reality a large proportion of venues are both.
I think that's true - and I think people are really drawing the distinction between a "drinking pub" and a "family pub or restaurant" in their minds when they think about those two questions. The problem is that it is somewhat harder to draw that distinction in law...
My mates in the industry are struggling with the logic because it is "obvious" that a small restaurant at 10pm is not the same as a large pub at 10pm. But how do you police that fairly? (For transparency: I declare a financial interest in such a small restaurant.)
My son runs a bar - they enforce the rules
He went past a restaurant which was packed - loads of people standing at the bar, no distancing.
He reported them to the police - only action a warning.
Son is fuming as he reckons they would get shut down in a heartbeat if they allowed that
Exactly. There's a local independent cafe here where the proprietor clearly doesn't "believe" in Coronavirus (apparently it is all about "diet"?!) and yet she hasn't been shut down. It's full of middle class white people, of course.
Has the member for Rutherglen taken the train to the Chiltern Hundreds yet?
How is a by-election going to be managed? Although there were several during WWII of course.
"How will we do a by-election" has been cover for my MP staying on the council. And presumably Claudia Webbe staying on Islington council despite being the MP for Leicester East.
She *cannot* stay in office. She is an utter disgrace.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
Kinabalu outs himself as Mike Pence.
- drat, just posted similar remark before seeing this, now looks like I'm nicking jokes.
Unless you know her really well, a handshake is the thing to do. If she wants a kiss on the cheek she will tell you.
Women are people too. It is not that hard to figure
“It’s hard to imagine this doesn’t end his hopes of re-election,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant, pointing to Mr. Trump’s “flaunting of obvious precautions.”
Nerys will be along in a minute to tell us that Melania was obviously going to be the only one in the photo to get it because she was the one wearing a mask.
That to me seems an illogical difference. The EC supremacy market is the delta between Biden EC and opponent EC.
It's perfectly logical in principle: If Biden withdraws, the Biden ECV market is voided but the Trump ECV market stands because he hasn't withdrawn. If Trump withdraws, the Trump ECV market is voided but the Biden ECV market stands because he hasn't withdrawn. If either withdraws, the Supremacy market is voided because it's the delta between two figures one of which is not considered not valid.
In practice, though, I'm not sure it's sustainable. The market is essentially about the Trump/Biden contest and only the Trump/Biden contest. The whole basis of the market would be invalid if one of them withdraws.
But that's what I mean by illogical. The supremacy is Biden EC over Trump EC. It's A = B - C. So, the basis of B and C should be the same as that of A. But so long as the rules were clear and put up in advance - as they were - then I guess a punter cannot complain. You could factor the illogicality in.
Well Melania didn't contract the virus through close proximity to Trump in the immediate aftermath of the debate.
She absolutely didn't catch it from his precious bodily fluids. You get the distinct impression that she despises the man - perhaps his aides and her aides have been clustered together. Any news on VP Gilead?
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
You have several days' notice of meeting a female?
Perhaps he's a member of the same sect as Pence ?
Don't worry, if the Trump succumbs to the pox then under President Pence you won't need to worry about this. The womenfolk will be kept in their own home suckling babies and cooking apple pie.
That is why Pence is so dangerous. He has beliefs he might act on and AFAICS they are not exactly modern.
The 46% who think it's a mistake to open pubs is almost certainly the equivalent of the wallflowers who never or rarely visit pubs (a group well represented on PB).
Carole being schooled by YouGov now? She really needs to put down twitter for a bit.
They're making an assumption though, aren't they? Initially Matt Singh compared party polling, to Cadwalladr mentioning Boris' popularity. Now YouGov are comparing party popularity to Boris' popularity.
There's a good chance YouGov are right, but if they only have one data point for Boris between mid March and mid May, then it's still an assumption. The big story at the start of lockdown was Rishi announcing huge amounts of spending - how do they know he wasn't driving the Tory increase, while Boris was still missing?
If you look at 10th May, Boris is still on +22%, while the govt approval is down to 7% - You could easily ask why he's so much more popular than the govt in the weeks after his illness?
Pollsters spend most of their time (reasonably) telling us not to read too much into things, or adding caveats to their data, so I still think Matt Singh and YouGov's response to this is far too dismissive.
The leadership approval ratings tell the same story. A surge at the end of March, not during April:
YouGov have just backtracked as they do have more data, and it shows that Boris popularity did rise after he went into ICU. I wouldn't read too much into it, but I don't think Matt Singh comes out of this looking particularly clever.
A small blip relative to the surge seen previously, which is what Carole was alluding to.
Not really, if you assume that absent Johnson's illness the approval number would have continued trending lower as it was or even at a faster rate as it did after he left hospital then the secondary sympathy bounce relative to the counterfactual was almost as large as the initial increase caused by the rally round in a crisis effect. It certainly tallies with my anecdotal impression at the time. Even my wife was quite upset at Johnson getting ill.
Excellent question in the Telegraph on Rolls Royce:
"Why aren’t the mini-nukes that Rolls excels in a cornerstone of [government] energy policy? It is the obvious way to abandon the geopolitical nightmare of building old-fashioned nuclear plants with Chinese money, and in Bradwell, Essex with Beijing’s untested technology."
Carole being schooled by YouGov now? She really needs to put down twitter for a bit.
They're making an assumption though, aren't they? Initially Matt Singh compared party polling, to Cadwalladr mentioning Boris' popularity. Now YouGov are comparing party popularity to Boris' popularity.
There's a good chance YouGov are right, but if they only have one data point for Boris between mid March and mid May, then it's still an assumption. The big story at the start of lockdown was Rishi announcing huge amounts of spending - how do they know he wasn't driving the Tory increase, while Boris was still missing?
If you look at 10th May, Boris is still on +22%, while the govt approval is down to 7% - You could easily ask why he's so much more popular than the govt in the weeks after his illness?
Pollsters spend most of their time (reasonably) telling us not to read too much into things, or adding caveats to their data, so I still think Matt Singh and YouGov's response to this is far too dismissive.
It is too dismissive. There is a chance that being sick boosts approval and Trump is in a hole. I recall feeling warmer about Johnson when he fell ill. And his talk to the nation when he first came out of hospital was a high point for him.
Implementing the eat out to help scheme whilst keeping pubs and restaurants closed is an interesting position for some of the public to support.
I don't see allowing restaurants to open as an option there.
The public may be drawing a distinction between pubs and restaurants when in reality a large proportion of venues are both.
Cant remember the last time I went to a pub that didnt serve food. And the vast majority of restaurants serve alcohol.
If the great British public can't work out things like that without being emotionally influenced by the word pub, it is another reminder of why governing by opinion poll is such a disaster.
Again, that group is overrepresented on PB.
I remember a very depressing threadette where PBers said "pubs are now really restaurants".
What they meant was pubs were really, erm, pubs that had kitchens and took food seriously, and had high decor standards and were attractive places for women to visit.
In other words, nice pubs, something which England is very good at, particularly southern England.
That to me seems an illogical difference. The EC supremacy market is the delta between Biden EC and opponent EC.
It's perfectly logical in principle: If Biden withdraws, the Biden ECV market is voided but the Trump ECV market stands because he hasn't withdrawn. If Trump withdraws, the Trump ECV market is voided but the Biden ECV market stands because he hasn't withdrawn. If either withdraws, the Supremacy market is voided because it's the delta between two figures one of which is not considered not valid.
In practice, though, I'm not sure it's sustainable. The market is essentially about the Trump/Biden contest and only the Trump/Biden contest. The whole basis of the market would be invalid if one of them withdraws.
But that's what I mean by illogical. The supremacy is Biden EC over Trump EC. It's A = B - C. So, the basis of B and C should be the same as that of A. But so long as the rules were clear and put up in advance - as they were - then I guess a punter cannot complain. You could factor the illogicality in.
Its entirely logical.
If A = Supremacy, B = Biden and C = Trump then Biden withdrawing voids B and therefore also voids A. Trump withdrawing voids C and therefore also voids A.
Comments
I mean there's plenty of ambiguity in parts of the 25th amendment.
I mean what happens if there's a terrorist attack which wipes out Congress and the cabinet and the designated survivor becomes incapacitated by a stroke?
Or doing Acting Secretaries (which haven't been confirmed by the Senate) have the power to remove a President?
'As early as last Autumn, Mr Trump was discussing with his aides about the threat posed by the former vice president.
“How are we gonna beat Biden?” he would ask, according to the Republican strategist. After being assured that Mr Biden would never make it out of a tough Democratic primary, Mr Trump pushed back: “But what if he does?” Mr Biden eventually announced his candidacy on Thursday.'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-biden-2020-election-democrat-primary-gop-a8887496.html
We are contacting you in reference to bets that you had matched on the – Next UK General Election – Election Date Month & Year Markets.
The rules for the above markets were based on the government, in its usual manner, declaring an official polling date for the next general election. This decision has historically been made by the Prime Minister who asks the Queen to dissolve Parliament.
However, on 15 September 2011, the Fixed Term Parliament Act was passed which sets the date of the next general election at Thursday 7 May 2015 and subsequent elections to be held on the first Thursday of May at five year intervals.
Due to this fundamental change in which future polling dates will be determined, the entire nature of the market has changed from what was intended. We have therefore taken the decision to void both markets in their entirety.
We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
But the FTPA had been law for 2 months and the FTPA had been a key demand of the Lib Dems from the start of the coalition so plenty of us had been betting on this market since May 2010 but Betfair acted like this had only just happened and was a surprise to everyone when it clearly wasn't.
People have to go out and earn a living sometime.
Whereas non-kissing, non-handshaking Thailand has barely seen any Covid at all....
The public may be drawing a distinction between pubs and restaurants when in reality a large proportion of venues are both.
Things are looking dire in the polls for him and something needs to turn up right now.
Notice as well that the only two categories where fewer were against the change than in favour were the two (pubs and students) that affected minorities not majorities adversely. Self interest rules as ever.
I wouldn't mind but I only went in for a packet of frozen chips
Made me smile, parochial news from Ayrshire. Hard to trump that.
If the great British public can't work out things like that without being emotionally influenced by the word pub, it is another reminder of why governing by opinion poll is such a disaster.
My mates in the industry are struggling with the logic because it is "obvious" that a small restaurant at 10pm is not the same as a large pub at 10pm. But how do you police that fairly? (For transparency: I declare a financial interest in such a small restaurant.)
He went past a restaurant which was packed - loads of people standing at the bar, no distancing.
He reported them to the police - only action a warning.
Son is fuming as he reckons they would get shut down in a heartbeat if they allowed that
Or so I'm told.
http://www.bobdylan.com/songs/hard-rains-gonna-fall/
In practice, though, I'm not sure it's sustainable. The market is essentially about the Trump/Biden contest and only the Trump/Biden contest. The whole basis of the market would be invalid if one of them withdraws.
Walmart made a lot of sense for having a supermarket, plus the George brand Asda is associated with is actually a Walmart brand so what are they going to do there?
"American Airlines says it shedding 19,000 workers and United Airlines 13,000"
A large, orange dead cat?
There's a good chance YouGov are right, but if they only have one data point for Boris between mid March and mid May, then it's still an assumption. The big story at the start of lockdown was Rishi announcing huge amounts of spending - how do they know he wasn't driving the Tory increase, while Boris was still missing?
If you look at 10th May, Boris is still on +22%, while the govt approval is down to 7% - You could easily ask why he's so much more popular than the govt in the weeks after his illness?
Pollsters spend most of their time (reasonably) telling us not to read too much into things, or adding caveats to their data, so I still think Matt Singh and YouGov's response to this is far too dismissive.
The Issa brothers are a brilliant British success story. Second generation migrants who have built up a business that 2 years after Walmart acquired Asda started with a single petrol station and 19 years later is worth billions. Quite literally self-made, but like so many of the other British Asian megastars in my industry they are modest and little known outside of it.
Does anyone know what the impact of the eventual take over of William Hill will be ?
My son in law works in their IT department in Leeds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The takeover isn't actually that surprising - everyone else was looking at separating off the freehold premises and selling them to repay the purchase price.
And while Walmart didn't want to spend a lot of management time focussed on the UK, they do seem to want to keep an interest and grab the decent staff.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/harrison-dies-of-pneumonia
(edit - I see this point has been made.)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1311977426923261952?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1311977426923261952
NYTimes
https://twitter.com/hwallop/status/1311967288065691653
She *cannot* stay in office. She is an utter disgrace.
Women are people too. It is not that hard to figure
He was flaunting his lack of precautions.
It certainly tallies with my anecdotal impression at the time. Even my wife was quite upset at Johnson getting ill.
"Why aren’t the mini-nukes that Rolls excels in a cornerstone of [government] energy policy? It is the obvious way to abandon the geopolitical nightmare of building old-fashioned nuclear plants with Chinese money, and in Bradwell, Essex with Beijing’s untested technology."
I remember a very depressing threadette where PBers said "pubs are now really restaurants".
What they meant was pubs were really, erm, pubs that had kitchens and took food seriously, and had high decor standards and were attractive places for women to visit.
In other words, nice pubs, something which England is very good at, particularly southern England.
If A = Supremacy, B = Biden and C = Trump then Biden withdrawing voids B and therefore also voids A. Trump withdrawing voids C and therefore also voids A.