Boris's problem is that he's now hemmed in on both sides. The current setup annoys both those who think the government is doing too much and those who think it's doing too little. Neither having cake nor eating it.
Mr. eek, aye, Domenicali's not going to have an easy start to his new job.
Mr. Seal, I once had an unexpectedly civilised disagreement with a random lady on Twitter, who held the same view as you regarding the Saxon invasion (or migration, as you might put it). I find it difficult to believe that there was no, or very little, military activity involved. The lack of evidence you mention only proves there's no evidence, is does not lend support either for or against your perspective.
And whilst, assuming lack of evidence is correct, it also doesn't support or oppose my view, the belief in an armed conflict is something that seems eminently likely given the large number of wars across human history including around this period (a century earlier Britain was abandoned by Rome because it couldn't spare the manpower as it already had too many conflicts to handle).
They are furious because more houses need to be built?
Have they been living under a rock for the past decade or something.
Obviously, we understand the need for houses to be built. Just not here, or here, or here (repeat x 650)...
Looking at the map, though- what's Cambridgeshire's excuse? (Though if the tiny blue dot is Cambridge City, which has virtually no free land that you'd want to build homes on, it could be one of those dumb things that happens if you apply an algorithm and don't stop to think about the results.)
"430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening."
Mr. rkrkrk, spending more on deprived areas is a separate discussion from reparations. Unless you intend only to spend on black areas and not white areas.
And yes, I've decided I'm irrevocably opposed to holding people responsible for things they haven't done...
That would do serious damage to the viability of long dated government debt.
Mr. Z, British. The royal union was four centuries ago, the political union three.
I look forward, as a Yorkshireman with some Welsh ancestry too, to paying myself reparations for the actions of the Vikings against the Saxons, and the Saxons against the Celts.
Anyone have the address of the Italian I should ask for reparations for the Romans?
The Saxons v Celts thing is a curious one. Linguistic evidence, the absence of Celtic place names, does point to a genocide. The problem is there is very little other evidence. In London the archaelogical record of Boudicia's burning of the city in 61CE is very clear with a level of burned ash. There is no similar record of a Saxon Invasion, when one would expect the Romano-Britons to have put up a fight. They just seem to have moved out while the Saxons build a new settlement, Lundenwic, outside the walls where Aldwich is now. At around the same time that Lundenwic was being settled a pocket of Roman Civilization actually continued around St Martin-in-the-Fields, half a mile away, until presumably the two merged. When Alfred told the Saxons to move back within the Roman Walls in 886, Lundenwic was, to them after 3 centuries, the "old town" or the "Aldwich".
Similarly, the city where I have a little first hand knowledge of the archaeology, Canterbury, appears to have been gradually abandoned from the date of the Roman departure for a century or so, except for a few farmers and gradually decayed. Juteish refugees appear to have arrived in that time and intermarried with the locals, so it even kept part of its name, Durovernum Cantiacorum to Canterbury.
So my preferred theory is that the Anglo-Saxons and Jutes rocked up and moved into the governmental and cultural vaccuum left by the collapse of Roman civilisation. To get anywhere the Celts had to adopt their language and customs, and were effectively assimilated to create, eventually what is today England.
Can't we compare the DNA of modern English people with that of the Welsh and modern Germans to get a handle on this? Or get historical specimens to compare DNA further back? Presumably someone has done this. I am not asking this with respect to the idea of Anglo Saxon reparations, which is obviously horseshit, I'm just curious. On the topic of reparations for slavery, if done sensibly I think it's an idea that has merit. It was a nearly peerless historical crime and it has had repercussions that continue to harm people's life chances right now, unsurprisingly as it was fairly recent especially as its vestigages (Jim Crow, segregation, redlining, unequal education, the prison industrial complex, police brutality) lived on well into the twentieth century and arguably beyond.
Mr. rkrkrk, spending more on deprived areas is a separate discussion from reparations. Unless you intend only to spend on black areas and not white areas.
And yes, I've decided I'm irrevocably opposed to holding people responsible for things they haven't done.
I don't consider myself personally responsible for, say, someone wrongly killed by the British police. But i think it's right that the/my government compensates the family of the victim.
I can understand the argument that - it was a long time ago - but i think the reverse that we should try to go back and make some form of atonement for those wrongs is a sensible objective.
At the least, i think drawing attention to injustices in our history is good. I, for instance, studied history at university and had never heard of the highland clearances, the harrying of North (I could go on...)
Labour plus Tories plus LDs combined on 54% in Rutherglen to only 44% for the SNP, so Scottish Labour could win a by election with Unionist tactical voting.
Off topic (but on THE topic) - had a good chat with a local GP last night. Says that for some reason C-19 cases that are presenting now are far less acute than during the first wave.
Whereas previously she had people on the phone to her struggling to breathe and she was sending out sats tests left, right and Chelsea, now it is completely different. Far less acute.
Why? She has no idea. Virus decreasing potency? Reduced initial viral load because of preventative measures? Natural immunity increasing?
They are furious because more houses need to be built?
Have they been living under a rock for the past decade or something.
Obviously, we understand the need for houses to be built. Just not here, or here, or here (repeat x 650)...
Looking at the map, though- what's Cambridgeshire's excuse? (Though if the tiny blue dot is Cambridge City, which has virtually no free land that you'd want to build homes on, it could be one of those dumb things that happens if you apply an algorithm and don't stop to think about the results.)
Off topic (but on THE topic) - had a good chat with a local GP last night. Says that for some reason C-19 cases that are presenting now are far less acute than during the first wave.
Whereas previously she had people on the phone to her struggling to breathe and she was sending out sats tests left, right and Chelsea, now it is completely different. Far less acute.
Why? She has no idea. Virus decreasing potency? Reduced initial viral load because of preventative measures? Natural immunity increasing?
People wearing masks is reducing the strength of the virus being transmitted, plus most of us are engaging in good social distancing and hand washing.
Mr. B, is that not a case of an organisation (a nation, in this case) entering knowingly into a long term financial arrangement, and therefore completely different to taking money from one group, because of who their ancestors apparently are, and giving it to another, because of who their ancestors are?
Judging people by their ancestors, demanding they pay or receive money based on the colour of their skin, is not something I can get behind. People are responsible for their own actions, not those of their forefathers.
Sorry if I'm being really dumb - but what does housing decreases mean in practice? The houses that are there now are presumably not going to be knocked down!?
Change in the requirement I think. So fewer new houses built.
Trump makes a full recovery and is soundly thrashed in the election
What I predict:
Trump makes a partial recovery and takes the opportunity to stand down as president - in order to avoid a humiliating defeat. "I would have won bigly". So Pence versus Biden. An even match I think.
A black Swan:
Biden also steps down because he tests positive or because he realises that his appeal is that he is not Trump and would lose against Pence. So Pence versus Harris. Harris edges it I think.
Biden would likely beat Pence, however Pence would beat Harris in my view, she has zero appeal to the rustbelt unlike Biden and she is no Obama for the black community either
Harris is the only one of the four people on the tickets this year with a net positive favourable rating.
And Pence's pull in the rust belt isn't great either. What he has is purely as a result of association with Trump. He is very low on charisma and, while Trump supporters wouldn't flock to Harris by any means, there is a very good chance a good number of them just wouldn't bother voting if their man wasn't an option.
Harris has a lower favourable rating than Biden and very little charisma. She does not have Biden's appeal to white working class voters and black voters are suspicious of her record as a prosecutor.
Pence would also see a huge evangelical turnout, even more than Trump would get
Labour plus Tories plus LDs combined on 54% in Rutherglen to only 44% for the SNP, so Scottish Labour could win a by election with Unionist tactical voting.
I think you're misunderestimating the power of George Galloway, who has a history of creating shocks in Westminster seats, once memorably in Scotland as well.
It'll be very interesting if she does. Labour won the seat in 2017, and lost it in 2019. There is no plausible other non-Nationalist party in this seat. If Labour hopes to start a Scottish recovery, this would be the place to do it.
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
Off topic (but on THE topic) - had a good chat with a local GP last night. Says that for some reason C-19 cases that are presenting now are far less acute than during the first wave.
Whereas previously she had people on the phone to her struggling to breathe and she was sending out sats tests left, right and Chelsea, now it is completely different. Far less acute.
Why? She has no idea. Virus decreasing potency? Reduced initial viral load because of preventative measures? Natural immunity increasing?
People wearing masks is reducing the strength of the virus being transmitted, plus most of us are engaging in good social distancing and hand washing.
I think that's the biggest difference - the initial viral load is often far lower which makes it easier for the body to fight off.
When thing we have learnt from Covid is how little we actually know about how infections actually work - I suspect there will be a few Nobel awards for Medicine from this over the years.
Labour plus Tories plus LDs combined on 54% in Rutherglen to only 44% for the SNP, so Scottish Labour could win a by election with Unionist tactical voting.
I think you're misunderestimating the power of George Galloway, who has a history of creating shocks in Westminster seats, once memorably in Scotland as well.
Galloway would likely back Labour in this by election as he despises the SNP, his Alliance for Unity is only standing for the Holyrood list next year not for constituencies
It'll be very interesting if she does. Labour won the seat in 2017, and lost it in 2019. There is no plausible other non-Nationalist party in this seat. If Labour hopes to start a Scottish recovery, this would be the place to do it.
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
wont the voters have a recall option is she is convicted? (another vote required)....
Mr. B, is that not a case of an organisation (a nation, in this case) entering knowingly into a long term financial arrangement, and therefore completely different to taking money from one group, because of who their ancestors apparently are, and giving it to another, because of who their ancestors are?
You can frame it or distinguish it how you like, but I think it might be more accurate to say that you are conditionally "opposed to holding people responsible for things they haven't done".
It'll be very interesting if she does. Labour won the seat in 2017, and lost it in 2019. There is no plausible other non-Nationalist party in this seat. If Labour hopes to start a Scottish recovery, this would be the place to do it.
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
If I lived in Rutherglen Nick I would be tempted to vote Labour for the first time in my life just to beat the SNP, though as you say it may have to be postponed or all postal if the MP resigns
I was expecting the conspiracists to blame the Democrats and their deep state friends as Trump had so convincingly won the first debate that this was their only option.
Landmark Communications have a decent reputation but do lean Democrat, so some scepticism is in order. Otoh, it is a big shift from their previous poll a month ago, which had the President seven ahead.
Get well soon, Donald.
I second that emotion. I am in the odd position of rooting passionately for a swift and full recovery from illness for Donald J Trump. He must not dodge the ginormous and thoroughly merited stink bomb that is coming his way at the polls a month from now. And there's the little matter of some VERY juicy betting positions all now suspended and up in the air. So c'mon the Trumpster. Few days' bed-rest, no tweeting, eat the right things, stay hydrated, and then back and at it!
It'll be very interesting if she does. Labour won the seat in 2017, and lost it in 2019. There is no plausible other non-Nationalist party in this seat. If Labour hopes to start a Scottish recovery, this would be the place to do it.
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
If I lived in Rutherglen Nick I would be tempted to vote Labour for the first time in my life just to beat the SNP
But that would make you not a real Conservative, god forbid. 😱
Mr. Boy, Caesar massacred 430,000 Thuringii[sp] in around 53BC. Alexander pacified Bactria and Sogdiana, eastern satrapies, when they rebelled by eliminating quite a lot of people there. We have more recent examples of the Khmer Rouge and ISIS, and, of course, the Holocaust. Arabs traded slaves long after we stopped.
Human history is overflowing slavery and genocide.
Mr. rkrkrk, I'm all for teaching history and learning from it. The vicarious profit we can have by learning from yesteryear without paying the price of those who suffered firsthand is a huge potential advantage. But chaining those of the present day to the past by holding living people responsible for the misdeeds of long dead ancestors is utterly backwards.
It's irrational to hold people responsible for actions they have not committed.
Do we actually know the detail of these so-called “reparations” coming out of California, or is everyone just hearing the word “reparations” and frothing uncontrollably?
Can't we compare the DNA of modern English people with that of the Welsh and modern Germans to get a handle on this? Or get historical specimens to compare DNA further back? Presumably someone has done this. I am not asking this with respect to the idea of Anglo Saxon reparations, which is obviously horseshit, I'm just curious. On the topic of reparations for slavery, if done sensibly I think it's an idea that has merit. It was a nearly peerless historical crime and it has had repercussions that continue to harm people's life chances right now, unsurprisingly as it was fairly recent especially as its vestigages (Jim Crow, segregation, redlining, unequal education, the prison industrial complex, police brutality) lived on well into the twentieth century and arguably beyond.
Do we actually know the detail of these so-called “reparations” coming out of California, or is everyone just hearing the word “reparations” and frothing uncontrollably?
Mr. Z, British. The royal union was four centuries ago, the political union three.
I look forward, as a Yorkshireman with some Welsh ancestry too, to paying myself reparations for the actions of the Vikings against the Saxons, and the Saxons against the Celts.
Anyone have the address of the Italian I should ask for reparations for the Romans?
The Saxons v Celts thing is a curious one. Linguistic evidence, the absence of Celtic place names, does point to a genocide. The problem is there is very little other evidence. In London the archaelogical record of Boudicia's burning of the city in 61CE is very clear with a level of burned ash. There is no similar record of a Saxon Invasion, when one would expect the Romano-Britons to have put up a fight. They just seem to have moved out while the Saxons build a new settlement, Lundenwic, outside the walls where Aldwich is now. At around the same time that Lundenwic was being settled a pocket of Roman Civilization actually continued around St Martin-in-the-Fields, half a mile away, until presumably the two merged. When Alfred told the Saxons to move back within the Roman Walls in 886, Lundenwic was, to them after 3 centuries, the "old town" or the "Aldwich".
Similarly, the city where I have a little first hand knowledge of the archaeology, Canterbury, appears to have been gradually abandoned from the date of the Roman departure for a century or so, except for a few farmers and gradually decayed. Juteish refugees appear to have arrived in that time and intermarried with the locals, so it even kept part of its name, Durovernum Cantiacorum to Canterbury.
So my preferred theory is that the Anglo-Saxons and Jutes rocked up and moved into the governmental and cultural vaccuum left by the collapse of Roman civilisation. To get anywhere the Celts had to adopt their language and customs, and were effectively assimilated to create, eventually what is today England.
But both peacefully rocking up, and military invasion, are regrettable but accepted threads in life's rich tapestry. The pure commoditisation of human beings for profit in a Christian and Enlightenment world is not.
The issue with the Barnard Castle business is that Johnson failed to take any disciplinary action, not that Cummings - an ostensible hired hand - broke the rules.
Can't we compare the DNA of modern English people with that of the Welsh and modern Germans to get a handle on this? Or get historical specimens to compare DNA further back? Presumably someone has done this. I am not asking this with respect to the idea of Anglo Saxon reparations, which is obviously horseshit, I'm just curious. On the topic of reparations for slavery, if done sensibly I think it's an idea that has merit. It was a nearly peerless historical crime and it has had repercussions that continue to harm people's life chances right now, unsurprisingly as it was fairly recent especially as its vestigages (Jim Crow, segregation, redlining, unequal education, the prison industrial complex, police brutality) lived on well into the twentieth century and arguably beyond.
These sort of things fascinate me. I personally have absolutely zero “British blood”. All 4 of my grandparents were immigrants from Europe in the 20th century, but you would never know it unless I told you.
However it’s highly likely my children (if I have any) will have “British blood”, so I guess the integration would then be complete.
It'll be very interesting if she does. Labour won the seat in 2017, and lost it in 2019. There is no plausible other non-Nationalist party in this seat. If Labour hopes to start a Scottish recovery, this would be the place to do it.
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
If I lived in Rutherglen Nick I would be tempted to vote Labour for the first time in my life just to beat the SNP
But that would make you not a real Conservative, god forbid. 😱
It would make me a Conservative and Unionist if the SNP lose to a Unionist Party.
The Scottish Conservatives have never won Rutherglen anyway (though a Unionist candidate supported by the Conservatives and Liberals did win it from 1951 to 1959), so Scottish Labour are the only chance to beat the SNP
They are furious because more houses need to be built?
Have they been living under a rock for the past decade or something.
Obviously, we understand the need for houses to be built. Just not here, or here, or here (repeat x 650)...
Looking at the map, though- what's Cambridgeshire's excuse? (Though if the tiny blue dot is Cambridge City, which has virtually no free land that you'd want to build homes on, it could be one of those dumb things that happens if you apply an algorithm and don't stop to think about the results.)
I resent that as someone who lives in Cambridgeshire and can see a massive new housing estate rising up from the window of my flat in a massive new(ish) housing estate!
One problem with house building targets is that they often stir up local resentments. In my part of Cambridgeshire there's a view that the more powerful Cambridge lobby in the county council push their house building requirements onto smaller and less important market towns.
That chart isn't as finely sampled as the one Matt Singh is using. Anyway, Carole was claiming the blue line on the chart he shared was surging in April when the opposite was true.
It'll be very interesting if she does. Labour won the seat in 2017, and lost it in 2019. There is no plausible other non-Nationalist party in this seat. If Labour hopes to start a Scottish recovery, this would be the place to do it.
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
If I lived in Rutherglen Nick I would be tempted to vote Labour for the first time in my life just to beat the SNP
But that would make you not a real Conservative, god forbid. 😱
It would make me a Conservative and Unionist if the SNP lose to a Unionist Party.
The Scottish Conservatives have never won Rutherglen anyway, so Scottish Labour are the only chance to beat the SNP
But that would make you not a real Conservative, god forbid. 😱
Do we actually know the detail of these so-called “reparations” coming out of California, or is everyone just hearing the word “reparations” and frothing uncontrollably?
What do you expect?
Reparations are not a bad idea.
Could I suggest as a scheme a million dollars for every living person who was enslaved, half that for every living child of theirs and maybe 10% for every living grandchild. Clean and simple.
The issue with the Barnard Castle business is that Johnson failed to take any disciplinary action, not that Cummings - an ostensible hired hand - broke the rules.
The issue is that they played a bad hand incredibly badly. What Boris should have done was tell Cummings that he had to resign but that Boris would be rejecting his resignation due to the current situation.
That would have silenced the issue while leaving things as everyone wanted them to be.
They are furious because more houses need to be built?
Have they been living under a rock for the past decade or something.
Obviously, we understand the need for houses to be built. Just not here, or here, or here (repeat x 650)...
Looking at the map, though- what's Cambridgeshire's excuse? (Though if the tiny blue dot is Cambridge City, which has virtually no free land that you'd want to build homes on, it could be one of those dumb things that happens if you apply an algorithm and don't stop to think about the results.)
I resent that as someone who lives in Cambridgeshire and can see a massive new housing estate rising up from the window of my flat in a massive new(ish) housing estate!
One problem with house building targets is that they often stir up local resentments. In my part of Cambridgeshire there's a view that the more powerful Cambridge lobby in the county council push their house building requirements onto smaller and less important market towns.
The color scale gives a very misleading impression here. The darkest yellow is a change of a few hundred houses, compared to the darkest blue which is a few thousand. It's only a small change in the requirement in either direction for the town and the surrounding area. Whenever a divergent color scheme is used, the gradient should be equal in both directions.
The Honda F1 story - if big manufacturers don't want to come flooding back into the sport (i.e. Toyota, Peugeot, Ford) then F1 needs to copy Indycar and have OEM engine manufacturers. Mercedes reportedly selling up having done all there is to be done - so there's one. Renault and/or Ferrari as engine suppliers on free availability has to be the way forward.
Mr. Eek, whilst I doubt that would've silenced the issue (some people seem to have a fixation on Cummings) it would've been far more competent and sensible than the impotent inaction the jester chose.
Mr. Z, British. The royal union was four centuries ago, the political union three.
I look forward, as a Yorkshireman with some Welsh ancestry too, to paying myself reparations for the actions of the Vikings against the Saxons, and the Saxons against the Celts.
Anyone have the address of the Italian I should ask for reparations for the Romans?
The Saxons v Celts thing is a curious one. Linguistic evidence, the absence of Celtic place names, does point to a genocide. The problem is there is very little other evidence. In London the archaelogical record of Boudicia's burning of the city in 61CE is very clear with a level of burned ash. There is no similar record of a Saxon Invasion, when one would expect the Romano-Britons to have put up a fight. They just seem to have moved out while the Saxons build a new settlement, Lundenwic, outside the walls where Aldwich is now. At around the same time that Lundenwic was being settled a pocket of Roman Civilization actually continued around St Martin-in-the-Fields, half a mile away, until presumably the two merged. When Alfred told the Saxons to move back within the Roman Walls in 886, Lundenwic was, to them after 3 centuries, the "old town" or the "Aldwich".
Similarly, the city where I have a little first hand knowledge of the archaeology, Canterbury, appears to have been gradually abandoned from the date of the Roman departure for a century or so, except for a few farmers and gradually decayed. Juteish refugees appear to have arrived in that time and intermarried with the locals, so it even kept part of its name, Durovernum Cantiacorum to Canterbury.
So my preferred theory is that the Anglo-Saxons and Jutes rocked up and moved into the governmental and cultural vaccuum left by the collapse of Roman civilisation. To get anywhere the Celts had to adopt their language and customs, and were effectively assimilated to create, eventually what is today England.
The Vikings also had a small, early settlement in London, around the Strand. Hence, St Clement Danes
The ancient history of London is fascinating. The name itself is a big mystery. Doesn’t seem to be Celtic, clearly not Saxon, it might date back many thousands of years, and be proto-indo-European
Around £110 million has been staked on the various markets on Betfair. If they market is voided they'd lose their usual 5% commission.
I think Betfair will apply their rules, when this is off the news.
I think they don't want to be featured on news reports. Sky and the BBC would be saying what impact this has had on the betting markets etc as part of their news feature and that's not the kind of publicity they want I think.
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
The issue with the Barnard Castle business is that Johnson failed to take any disciplinary action, not that Cummings - an ostensible hired hand - broke the rules.
The issue is that they played a bad hand incredibly badly. What Boris should have done was tell Cummings that he had to resign but that Boris would be rejecting his resignation due to the current situation.
That would have silenced the issue while leaving things as everyone wanted them to be.
I'm not sure that would have worked as the key thing was Johnson demonstrating this behaviour was unacceptable. A month or two in the sin bin might have worked. In any case Johnson didn't do it.
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
That's great Betfair, could you let us bet on that then.
The other fun scenario, Trump is incapacitated like Derek Draper between now and election day, and dies before either before the electoral college meets or before inauguration.
So you've got the 12th Amendment and 25th Amendment competing against each other
Around £110 million has been staked on the various markets on Betfair. If they market is voided they'd lose their usual 5% commission.
The 5% is on the winnings though which will be far lower than the £5.5m the turnover figure suggests due to trading.
Not to mention that almost everyone on Betfair will have chosen 2% commission (at the cost of BOG with PP) so if you have not done made your choice: My Account > Betfair Account > My Betfair Rewards
So I just looked through all the presidents who died in office and it turns out that in the event that Trump succumbs to covid19, he will be the first in the history of the office to qualify for a Darwin Award.
Around £110 million has been staked on the various markets on Betfair. If they market is voided they'd lose their usual 5% commission.
The 5% is on the winnings though which will be far lower than the £5.5m the turnover figure suggests due to trading.
Their average commission is not 5% either. Anyone can choose to be on 2% commission nowadays, most big stakers will be. Id guess their average commission is somewhere around 3%.
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
I'd give her a little more credit. She's directly risking a seat on political principle.
The Honda F1 story - if big manufacturers don't want to come flooding back into the sport (i.e. Toyota, Peugeot, Ford) then F1 needs to copy Indycar and have OEM engine manufacturers. Mercedes reportedly selling up having done all there is to be done - so there's one. Renault and/or Ferrari as engine suppliers on free availability has to be the way forward.
The problem is that new engine designs are required for 2022 onwards but the engines are now a dead end given that all cars will be going electric at some point - so I can't see anyone else moving into the market.
Mercedes going OEM after selling the team to Ineos is probably the best outcome we will see...
Mr. Z, British. The royal union was four centuries ago, the political union three.
I look forward, as a Yorkshireman with some Welsh ancestry too, to paying myself reparations for the actions of the Vikings against the Saxons, and the Saxons against the Celts.
Anyone have the address of the Italian I should ask for reparations for the Romans?
The Saxons v Celts thing is a curious one. Linguistic evidence, the absence of Celtic place names, does point to a genocide. The problem is there is very little other evidence. In London the archaelogical record of Boudicia's burning of the city in 61CE is very clear with a level of burned ash. There is no similar record of a Saxon Invasion, when one would expect the Romano-Britons to have put up a fight. They just seem to have moved out while the Saxons build a new settlement, Lundenwic, outside the walls where Aldwich is now. At around the same time that Lundenwic was being settled a pocket of Roman Civilization actually continued around St Martin-in-the-Fields, half a mile away, until presumably the two merged. When Alfred told the Saxons to move back within the Roman Walls in 886, Lundenwic was, to them after 3 centuries, the "old town" or the "Aldwich".
Similarly, the city where I have a little first hand knowledge of the archaeology, Canterbury, appears to have been gradually abandoned from the date of the Roman departure for a century or so, except for a few farmers and gradually decayed. Juteish refugees appear to have arrived in that time and intermarried with the locals, so it even kept part of its name, Durovernum Cantiacorum to Canterbury.
So my preferred theory is that the Anglo-Saxons and Jutes rocked up and moved into the governmental and cultural vaccuum left by the collapse of Roman civilisation. To get anywhere the Celts had to adopt their language and customs, and were effectively assimilated to create, eventually what is today England.
Can't we compare the DNA of modern English people with that of the Welsh and modern Germans to get a handle on this? Or get historical specimens to compare DNA further back? Presumably someone has done this. I am not asking this with respect to the idea of Anglo Saxon reparations, which is obviously horseshit, I'm just curious. On the topic of reparations for slavery, if done sensibly I think it's an idea that has merit. It was a nearly peerless historical crime and it has had repercussions that continue to harm people's life chances right now, unsurprisingly as it was fairly recent especially as its vestigages (Jim Crow, segregation, redlining, unequal education, the prison industrial complex, police brutality) lived on well into the twentieth century and arguably beyond.
Ah yes I remember that study now! The map is fascinating. Eg the distinct groups in NE Scotland (Aberdonians have always been seen as an odd bunch by other Scots) and the clear Devon/Cornwall divide. Even the random English genetics close to St Andrews makes sense! From my limited knowledge of my grandparents' heritage I am guessing I am mostly connected to the boring generic English tribe with bits of Northumbria, Devon, Cornwall and South Wales thrown in, plus Ireland (which isn't covered except NI). My family history seems to have been fairly nomadic though, we don't seem to be the type to stay in the village and marry a second cousin.
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
I hadn't seen that, so maybe Betfair would be an exception. However, I do wonder if that is realistic in practice.
I might have mentioned this once or twice on PB, this is turning into a clusterfeck that makes the Theresa May exit date market look like good fun
A key one for me is the Sporting Index market. What the rules say there is:
On the Biden ECV market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or Joe Biden is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
On the Supremacy market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or either candidate is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
Clearly that's an important distinction, stating that if one candidate has to withdraw the other candidate's ECV market still stands, but not the Supremacy market.
It's potentially a real mess, though: what does 'forced to withdraw' mean?
I've long wondered why bookies aren't clearer on this kind of thing.
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
I'd give her a little more credit. She's directly risking a seat on political principle.
On principle?
Or because it is what she thinks is most politically advantageous to distance herself from this mess?
So I just looked through all the presidents who died in office and it turns out that in the event that Trump succumbs to covid19, he will be the first in the history of the office to qualify for a Darwin Award.
I would have thought William Henry Harrison qualified for that a 1 hour 45 minute speech on a cold day while already ill resulting in his cold becoming pneumonia
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
Must be a cold sweat on at Betfair this morning.
I would sympathise with them then I remember the logic and fact defying decisions they made on the Theresa May exit date market and the decision they made in 2011 to void the next GE market.
Mr. Z, British. The royal union was four centuries ago, the political union three.
I look forward, as a Yorkshireman with some Welsh ancestry too, to paying myself reparations for the actions of the Vikings against the Saxons, and the Saxons against the Celts.
Anyone have the address of the Italian I should ask for reparations for the Romans?
The Saxons v Celts thing is a curious one. Linguistic evidence, the absence of Celtic place names, does point to a genocide. The problem is there is very little other evidence. In London the archaelogical record of Boudicia's burning of the city in 61CE is very clear with a level of burned ash. There is no similar record of a Saxon Invasion, when one would expect the Romano-Britons to have put up a fight. They just seem to have moved out while the Saxons build a new settlement, Lundenwic, outside the walls where Aldwich is now. At around the same time that Lundenwic was being settled a pocket of Roman Civilization actually continued around St Martin-in-the-Fields, half a mile away, until presumably the two merged. When Alfred told the Saxons to move back within the Roman Walls in 886, Lundenwic was, to them after 3 centuries, the "old town" or the "Aldwich".
Similarly, the city where I have a little first hand knowledge of the archaeology, Canterbury, appears to have been gradually abandoned from the date of the Roman departure for a century or so, except for a few farmers and gradually decayed. Juteish refugees appear to have arrived in that time and intermarried with the locals, so it even kept part of its name, Durovernum Cantiacorum to Canterbury.
So my preferred theory is that the Anglo-Saxons and Jutes rocked up and moved into the governmental and cultural vaccuum left by the collapse of Roman civilisation. To get anywhere the Celts had to adopt their language and customs, and were effectively assimilated to create, eventually what is today England.
It'll be very interesting if she does. Labour won the seat in 2017, and lost it in 2019. There is no plausible other non-Nationalist party in this seat. If Labour hopes to start a Scottish recovery, this would be the place to do it.
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
If I lived in Rutherglen Nick I would be tempted to vote Labour for the first time in my life just to beat the SNP
But that would make you not a real Conservative, god forbid. 😱
It would make me a Conservative and Unionist if the SNP lose to a Unionist Party.
The Scottish Conservatives have never won Rutherglen anyway, so Scottish Labour are the only chance to beat the SNP
But that would make you not a real Conservative, god forbid. 😱
Personally I would prefer a return to the 1950s and just one single Unionist candidate to take on the SNP but short of that I would urge all Scottish Unionists to tactically vote for the candidate best able to beat the SNP in each FPTP constituency in Scotland and then vote for their preferred party on the list, so at Holyrood 2021 if I lived in Glasgow for example or most of the central belt I would vote Scottish Labour for the constituency seat and Scottish Conservative on the list
Interesting question is whether Trump got infected by Hope Hicks - in which case he was very unlikely to have been infectious at the time of the debate - or from a common source which infected both of them. If that were the case, then the risk to Biden from exposure during the debate, while fairly low, is non zero.
The Trumpton's biggest nightmare must be Biden getting Covid and becoming very ill and it being widely perceived that the cause was the recklessness of the Trump clan.
So Nicola has shown herself to be a better lead than Johnson ever will be.
Cummings should also have resigned.
I agree but, to rub salt, Cummings didn't even apologise. That was the kicker for me - yes he should have resigned but, failing that, an apolgy along the lines of "I don't think what I did was legally incorrect, but I accept that someone in my position should set a better example". I think that would have been worth an extra 2 or 3 points to the Tories by now.
As it was, the complete lack of contrition just added to the growing unease about how the Govt was handling it, like a steady drip against a rock. eating away against a commanding lead. I said at the time, those opposed to the Tories should have been hoping and praying for Cummings NOT to resign or be fired, and so it has proved. I think Starmer agreed with me. He watches this board like a hawk waiting for me to post I bet.
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
Must be a cold sweat on at Betfair this morning.
I would sympathise with them then I remember the logic and fact defying decisions they made on the Theresa May exit date market and the decision they made in 2011 to void the next GE market.
I'm not bitter about that nine years on.
I wasn't on here in 2011, what was that to do with? Fixed term parliament act?
I am pleased to confirm that I haven't the faintest idea how all this will affect the presidential election.
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
Betfair say otherwise.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
I hadn't seen that, so maybe Betfair would be an exception. However, I do wonder if that is realistic in practice.
I might have mentioned this once or twice on PB, this is turning into a clusterfeck that makes the Theresa May exit date market look like good fun
A key one for me is the Sporting Index market. What the rules say there is:
On the Biden ECV market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or Joe Biden is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
On the Supremacy market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or either candidate is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
Clearly that's an important distinction, stating that if one candidate has to withdraw the other candidate's ECV market still stands, but not the Supremacy market.
It's potentially a real mess, though: what does 'forced to withdraw' mean?
I've long wondered why bookies aren't clearer on this kind of thing.
It's a big issue for the crypto markets because anybody can create a market, so the market creator is potentially trying to trick you.
I think one problem is that the more circumstances you try to address in the detail, the more you increase the chances that the terms contradict the commonsense reading of the title.
They both do the Thai wai at the end. The clasped praying hands and brief head bow.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
Strongly strongly agree. The elbow bump is embarrassing and it still involves contact. The "Cliff Richard" is vastly better. Also it gets round the "shake or kiss?" dilemma when it comes to females that I find so paralyzing that I start to fret about it days before I'm due to meet one.
Comments
Mr. Seal, I once had an unexpectedly civilised disagreement with a random lady on Twitter, who held the same view as you regarding the Saxon invasion (or migration, as you might put it). I find it difficult to believe that there was no, or very little, military activity involved. The lack of evidence you mention only proves there's no evidence, is does not lend support either for or against your perspective.
And whilst, assuming lack of evidence is correct, it also doesn't support or oppose my view, the belief in an armed conflict is something that seems eminently likely given the large number of wars across human history including around this period (a century earlier Britain was abandoned by Rome because it couldn't spare the manpower as it already had too many conflicts to handle).
https://twitter.com/DavidDPaxton/status/1311959117267955712?s=20
https://twitter.com/DavidDPaxton/status/1311959361288273921?s=20
Looking at the map, though- what's Cambridgeshire's excuse? (Though if the tiny blue dot is Cambridge City, which has virtually no free land that you'd want to build homes on, it could be one of those dumb things that happens if you apply an algorithm and don't stop to think about the results.)
"430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced
There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html
They blame Trump for not implementing travel restrictions earlier, but by the same token China could have prevented the flights from taking place.
I am not asking this with respect to the idea of Anglo Saxon reparations, which is obviously horseshit, I'm just curious.
On the topic of reparations for slavery, if done sensibly I think it's an idea that has merit. It was a nearly peerless historical crime and it has had repercussions that continue to harm people's life chances right now, unsurprisingly as it was fairly recent especially as its vestigages (Jim Crow, segregation, redlining, unequal education, the prison industrial complex, police brutality) lived on well into the twentieth century and arguably beyond.
I can understand the argument that - it was a long time ago - but i think the reverse that we should try to go back and make some form of atonement for those wrongs is a sensible objective.
At the least, i think drawing attention to injustices in our history is good. I, for instance, studied history at university and had never heard of the highland clearances, the harrying of North (I could go on...)
Labour plus Tories plus LDs combined on 54% in Rutherglen to only 44% for the SNP, so Scottish Labour could win a by election with Unionist tactical voting.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1311763303375474698?s=20
Off topic (but on THE topic) - had a good chat with a local GP last night. Says that for some reason C-19 cases that are presenting now are far less acute than during the first wave.
Whereas previously she had people on the phone to her struggling to breathe and she was sending out sats tests left, right and Chelsea, now it is completely different. Far less acute.
Why? She has no idea. Virus decreasing potency? Reduced initial viral load because of preventative measures? Natural immunity increasing?
https://www.lgbce.org.uk/_flysystem/s3/inline-images/Cambridge final recs map - with labels.jpg
Thanks for PB, Mike, and I look forward to seeing you in the next life.
Judging people by their ancestors, demanding they pay or receive money based on the colour of their skin, is not something I can get behind. People are responsible for their own actions, not those of their forefathers.
Pence would also see a huge evangelical turnout, even more than Trump would get
However, in the event that a candidate dies during an election, I'm pretty sure that all the markets would be voided.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
But what are the rules at the moment on by-elections? I believe that we are prohibited from holding local council elections because of the virus (potentially until May). Would we have a Parliamentary one, or would the seat be unrepresented for 6 months?
#SaveOurPresident
When thing we have learnt from Covid is how little we actually know about how infections actually work - I suspect there will be a few Nobel awards for Medicine from this over the years.
We should all adopt this. It’s gracious, elegant and easy. Handshakes are gone forever. And the elbow bumps are a bit silly and awkward.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules
Human history is overflowing slavery and genocide.
Mr. rkrkrk, I'm all for teaching history and learning from it. The vicarious profit we can have by learning from yesteryear without paying the price of those who suffered firsthand is a huge potential advantage. But chaining those of the present day to the past by holding living people responsible for the misdeeds of long dead ancestors is utterly backwards.
It's irrational to hold people responsible for actions they have not committed.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2015-03-19-who-do-you-think-you-really-are-genetic-map-british-isles
Been getting a few back round the village too recently.
Mid March Boris had an approval rating of +4%, by mid April it was +40%.
Cadwalladr is right that Boris was more popular when he was ill and in the month after.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
However it’s highly likely my children (if I have any) will have “British blood”, so I guess the integration would then be complete.
The Scottish Conservatives have never won Rutherglen anyway (though a Unionist candidate supported by the Conservatives and Liberals did win it from 1951 to 1959), so Scottish Labour are the only chance to beat the SNP
One problem with house building targets is that they often stir up local resentments. In my part of Cambridgeshire there's a view that the more powerful Cambridge lobby in the county council push their house building requirements onto smaller and less important market towns.
I hate rules risk.
Reparations are not a bad idea.
Could I suggest as a scheme a million dollars for every living person who was enslaved, half that for every living child of theirs and maybe 10% for every living grandchild. Clean and simple.
That would have silenced the issue while leaving things as everyone wanted them to be.
Cummings should also have resigned.
The ancient history of London is fascinating. The name itself is a big mystery. Doesn’t seem to be Celtic, clearly not Saxon, it might date back many thousands of years, and be proto-indo-European
I think they don't want to be featured on news reports. Sky and the BBC would be saying what impact this has had on the betting markets etc as part of their news feature and that's not the kind of publicity they want I think.
"She acted in what she considered to be in the best interests of herself and her family - and I will not mark her down for that."
That was the day that Johnson lost his credibility and authority to lead us through the pandemic. Sturgeon is lucky to have such a low bar to hop over.
So you've got the 12th Amendment and 25th Amendment competing against each other
My Account > Betfair Account > My Betfair Rewards
Mercedes going OEM after selling the team to Ineos is probably the best outcome we will see...
It's just as he is getting headlines for "supporting white supremacy" and feels like a last roll of the dice for him.
Also the media are having to dial down their anti-Trump rhetoric in the runup to the election as you saw already from the Washington Post.
On the Biden ECV market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or Joe Biden is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
On the Supremacy market: "If the election does not take place in 2020 or either candidate is not on ballot/forced to withdraw market is void."
Clearly that's an important distinction, stating that if one candidate has to withdraw the other candidate's ECV market still stands, but not the Supremacy market.
It's potentially a real mess, though: what does 'forced to withdraw' mean?
I've long wondered why bookies aren't clearer on this kind of thing.
Or because it is what she thinks is most politically advantageous to distance herself from this mess?
I'm not bitter about that nine years on.
An all too rare admission on PB!!
As it was, the complete lack of contrition just added to the growing unease about how the Govt was handling it, like a steady drip against a rock. eating away against a commanding lead. I said at the time, those opposed to the Tories should have been hoping and praying for Cummings NOT to resign or be fired, and so it has proved. I think Starmer agreed with me. He watches this board like a hawk waiting for me to post I bet.
I think one problem is that the more circumstances you try to address in the detail, the more you increase the chances that the terms contradict the commonsense reading of the title.