Er. Why have they suspended the market? Some of us have Pence bets for exactly this situation.
I think that Betfair are worried that people who don't understand betting, or indeed pensions, will look askance at them profiting from speculation over whether someone dies. They might be concerned about regulatory implications from the loss of reputation.
They shouldn't be allowed to suspend the market without having made clear in advance that these circumstances would have allowed them to do so.
Didn't OGH say it was the biggest political betting market in their history? Imagine if they void it. What a mess.
I can't bring myself to echo Edmund of Tokyo's previous remark, because no matter how godawful someone is I don't wish them dead. On the other hand, I kind of hope that if he does make it through it's only after a torrid time that may teach him not to be such a moron about this ghastly virus. I certainly think it changed Boris.
As for my Melania comment, it was only because I thought she can't stand him?
Changed Boris? He's just as useless and incompetent as he was before!
Not quite he used to be useless and incompetent but had a je ne sais quoi that both hid those items and meant they didn't really matter.
That je ne sais quoi has evaporated and brought his uselessness and incompetency to the fore.
That was the Responsibility-19 virus that he caught when he got the job.
So I guess I get bragging rights because I was on here back in April (I think - it's not showing in my history!, but I will dig it up) saying that there was no way Trump wouldn't get this given his attitude and a bet on Pence might be a good idea. I recommended betting on Pence and was shot down because the betfair market is about who is the president after Election Day.
I got 25 quid on at 200-1, it went down to 45-1 in May but I didn't cash out.
I was regretting this a few days ago as Pence had gone out to 500-1. Now I can't wait to cash out...
I cannot recall whether it is you I have to thank, Martin, but I did cover Pence on somebody's advice. Thank you and well done anyway.
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
The biggest reason for wishing Trump well. Mike Pence.
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
My initial feeling is that Pence would have a lower chance of beating Biden than Trump because many Trump-worshippers wouldn`t turnout to vote. But I`d be interested in any views to the contrary.
There are two reasons Pence could win. Firstly, some Republican voters would come back to the fold as they wouldn't need to vote for Trump. Secondly, nearly no-one knows Pence and the Democrats would have to scramble to quickly define him. I'd expect the race to tighten, and who knows...
As for Trump voters - I think they'd vote for Pence out of loyalty to Trump.
(Personally I think Pence is an awful person with awful ideas, but that doesn't really matter)
If Trump survives, and Biden doesn't get it, I think the race is now over. Landslide for Biden as this solidifies the status quo as Trump being irresponsible and Biden being sane. Trump has made a number of bets this year - COVID won't happen, it'll all be over by Easter, Hydrochloroquine will work, etc. and none of them have come off. Quite remarkable bad luck, actually.
Putting aside the human element of this and not wanting anyone to be sick...
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
It isn't easy at all to see Pence stepping down after one term! The bloke's 61, which isn't at all old to become President.
I also doubt Pence would make Ivana VP. Firstly, Trump isn't leaving the Presidency this side of January unless, crudely, it's in a pine box. Even if he's very sick, and I hope he isn't, he's not leaving when he has an illness that very ill people often do recover from even if it's a relatively slow road. And if Trump leaves in a pine box, then Pence has a pretty free choice so why pick Ivana? Pence is a pretty conventional politician in terms of style and would chose someone he trusts and who won't outshine him.
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
This is one of those occasions when I strongly agree with Philip. If the only thing that can save US democracy is Trump succumbing to the disease, then it’s pretty well finished anyway.
"Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond."
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
"Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond."
This is the bit you should be aware of, from the next President market.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
But that would be under the 25th Amendment, Betfair will only pay out on those who become President via the 12th Amendment.
Just had a quick scoot round Google and the fatality rate for a 74 year old male is sub 5%. Let`s not get carried away.
As a ballpark figure that sounds about right, perhaps a little higher.
Being significantly incapacitated for weeks/months is quite possible though.
I think hospitalisation-level illness is around 10-20% for an obese 74 year old (which is, of course, 80-90% no hospitalisation), and serious symptoms that wouldn’t really need hospitalisation (but feel awful) are a further 20% or so.
I’d assume they’d be erring on the precautionary side, so maybe one in three chance of hospitalisation for him (so still a majority chance of no hospitalisation).
Up to 3 months post-viral-syndrome/lingering covid about 10-20% (but almost unrelated to the other odds, so not on top of, or within those, but a separate dice roll), and Long Covid lasting beyond 3 months about 5%.
Those are rough numbers, but they do provide a jumping off point for a variety of political scenarios.
- Trump is asymptomatic (with subset scenarios of everyone close to him has no more than mild symptoms and fully recovers, someone close to him has at least mild symptoms and lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and fully recovers, someone close to him is hospitalised and has lingering symptoms, someone close to him is hospitalised and dies. - Trump has mild symptoms and fully recovers - Trump has mild symptoms and lingering aftereffects - Trump is hospitalised and fully recovers - Trump is hospitalised and has lingering effects - Trump is hospitalised and dies
Separate to the human element that this is a person potentially suffering from a possibly nasty illness and is in a vulnerable group, we can’t overlook the political factors that he’s President of the US in this natural disaster and the election is coming up in one month; those are the scenarios possible, and each one can lead to very different futures
My rough finger in the air estimates on probability of the above are: - Asymptomatic - 25% - Mild/ full recovery - 25% - Mild/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/full recovery - 15% - Hospitalised/lingering symptoms - 15% - Hospitalised/dies - 5%
Asymptomatic - Mild/ full recovery - Mild/lingering symptoms - and if it's a short illness - Hospitalised/full recovery.
Are all great outcomes for Trump. He will come out and say "See, As I told you from the very beginning, it's just a type of Flu. A Chinese Flu. Sure some people die from Flu, and that's sad, that's very sad. But that's life folks, and we don't shut the economy down for Flu"
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
Doesn't it depend on the small print of the betting terms?
If Trump were to die before January, Pence is clearly "next President". If the bet is who the Electoral College ratifies as winner, that's still very likely to be Pence if the Trump/Pence ticket wins the election and Trump dies before January. It's only if the bet is which Presidential candidate wins states carrying a majority of EVs that it would appear likely to be Trump even if he'd died before election day because, as you say, it will be his name on the ballot (and indeed lots of votes for both Trump and Biden have actually been cast already).
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
I hadn't thought of that. Anything's possible but overall I don't see how it helps Trump that much.
"Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond."
This is the bit you should be aware of, from the next President market.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
So there is, in reality, no reason at all for voiding the market.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
Actually you're probably correct.
I think this is how it could play out...
FIrst up 'Trump' and 'Biden' are on the ballots, 'Pence' and 'Harris' are not.
All the votes will have 'Trump' on the ballot, and not 'Pence'. So people will cast their vote for 'Trump'. Then if Trump dies or some such 'Pence' becomes president. If 'Trump' loses on the ballots, the next president is Biden even if 'Trump' dies (Providing Biden doesn't die too)
So assuming Trump doesn't get very sick, I think what this does is it gives Trump/GOP an extra card to play, even quite late.
Give it a couple of weeks, if the polling perks up for Trump he can carry on. But if he's doing badly, he can quit and hand over to Pence, in exchange for a promise to lean on prosecutors to lay off him, and pardon him if necessary.
They can play this card whenever they like, and a leader often gets a bounce, so give another two weeks and see how things look. Pence gets a swearing in, an inaugural speech, all kinds of good publicity. I think I'd rate the race under those circumstances as a toss-up, or maybe somewhat favourable to Pence.
"Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond."
This is the bit you should be aware of, from the next President market.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
So there is, in reality, no reason at all for voiding the market.
Indeed, plenty of us having been building up our betting portfolios for nearly four years.
The problem with a Pence candidacy is finding enough Americans who want to create Gilead. Trump is mad but hasn't actually done anything. Pence is mad but poses the danger that the hard right let's take away the rights of minorities and womenfolk ideal might actually be made law
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
I guess there’s at least a possibility of insider betting for a few days, so a shortish suspension isn’t entirely unreasonable.
Voiding the market would be. Though I have to acknowledge I’m not disinterested in the question.
The whole point of peer to peer betting is insider betting.
That is the purpose of the market. It should not need to be suspended.
If the whole point of peer to peer is 'insider' betting it would seem there is little point in anyone apart from an insider dealing in it as it would essentially be free money at the expense of mugs?
Er. Why have they suspended the market? Some of us have Pence bets for exactly this situation.
And it was always likely that in this situation, the markets would have been suspended. You should be factoring that in to your risk.
Why? Where in there rules does it talk about 'suspension' if one of the candidates gets sick?
I agree with you , but the same thing happened when Johnson took ill. If I recall correctly, the BF markets (e.g. Boris Exit Date) were down for about a week (can someone confirm?).
Putting aside the human element of this and not wanting anyone to be sick...
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
And the GOP strategy has been all about Trump.
Your assertion of a Pence landslide, or even victory may be accurate, but there is little empirical evidence to back up your view I would say particularly against Harris.
These are strange times and a sympathy vote for Pence for Trump's passing is not beyond the realms of possibly. But let's hope Trump recovers and experiences the drubbing he deserves.
I wish this hadn't happened and hope Trump recovers quickly and doesn't get seriously ill or worse from this. Not just the usual platitudes of "setting aside politics" but for politics too.
Trump needs to lose and lose "bigly" in November. It was looking increasingly plausible that Biden could win ~400 ECV and absolutely smash Trump. That's good for America to show that Trumpism is madness that must not be tolerated again, like Corbynism here.
If Trump gets seriously ill or worse he'll go down as a martyr for his cause and will have never lost.
He needs to lose fair and square, so get well soon Mr President.
If he dies the world gets denied all the fun thats to come: Trump orders republican governors to close down mail-in vote counts Trump incites armed white militia to "guard" polling stations in black districts Trump refuses to concede defeat Trump lawyers argue in court the illegality of votes cash for Biden which disregard his claim to the Presidency Trump declares the election result void and his intent to continue Trump issues Executive Order giving himself immunity from prosecution Trump arrested in the Oval Office and dragged out Trump jailed for tax fraud, collusion with a hostile power, inciting riot etc etc
Get well soon Mr President. You utter tool.
The biggest reason for wishing Trump well. Mike Pence.
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
My initial feeling is that Pence would have a lower chance of beating Biden than Trump because many Trump-worshippers wouldn`t turnout to vote. But I`d be interested in any views to the contrary.
Trump got a lower vote share than Romney.
Pence attracts back life long GOPers who were turned off by Trump.
I wonder what type of testing the POTUS gets? Assuming I'm talking conspiracy nonsense and he really has had a positive test.
The False Positive Rate is of course a factor in all these tests.
The chances of both him AND Melania having multiple false positives (They'll have both had retests) are absolubtely infintesimal.
Exactly. This shows the False Positive Scam up for the idiot idea that it always was. Also that there is a known iinfection chain. False positives can't infect anyone else.
Er. Why have they suspended the market? Some of us have Pence bets for exactly this situation.
And it was always likely that in this situation, the markets would have been suspended. You should be factoring that in to your risk.
Why? Where in there rules does it talk about 'suspension' if one of the candidates gets sick?
I agree with you , but the same thing happened when Johnson took ill. If I recall correctly, the BF markets (e.g. Boris Exit Date) were down for about a week (can someone confirm?).
Market was suspended when Boris ended up in the ICU iirc, not when he was initially diagnosed. The circs are different here, noone had cast a ballot for Boris whilst he was sick. There's a live election taking place right now.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
It doesn't even necessarily undermine his stance on the virus. "We know it's dangerous. We've always known it's dangerous. But so is the consequences of treating it as much more dangerous overall, than it is. Shutting the economy down costs lives. Spreading fear and reducing business and customer confidence harms the economy and cost lives. Many many lives. Far more than Covid ever will. It is important that people continue to live their lives as normally as possible and don't succumb to fear, because in the long run that will hurt us all."
The fact that he has caught it, but is carrying on (assuming he survives) arguably boosts that message, because it shows he has been prepared to take the personal risks (and suffered for it) that he has encouraged others to do. He's even on the record as having downplayed the severity because of the effect on the economy.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
Actually you're probably correct.
I think this is how it could play out...
FIrst up 'Trump' and 'Biden' are on the ballots, 'Pence' and 'Harris' are not.
All the votes will have 'Trump' on the ballot, and not 'Pence'. So people will cast their vote for 'Trump'. Then if Trump dies or some such 'Pence' becomes president. If 'Trump' loses on the ballots, the next president is Biden even if 'Trump' dies (Providing Biden doesn't die too)
I don't disagree with that outcome but I think I am right in saying Pence IS on the ballot. The ballots say Trump/Pence and Biden/Harris I believe.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
I did float the question of a hoax early in this thread
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
But that would be under the 25th Amendment, Betfair will only pay out on those who become President via the 12th Amendment.
No, they say they'll pay out when it becomes clear who has the EVs. If Trump is gone before the election, it will be clear that all of 'his' electors will pledge instead for Pence so if Trump/Pence wins a majority of EVs then it's clear that Pence continues as the president.
These would not be faithless electors, as described in the Betfair rules.
I don't see how BF wouldn't pay on Pence in this scenario.
Putting aside the human element of this and not wanting anyone to be sick...
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
Fantasy.
Possibly. But the whole Democrat campaign has been about Trump, Trump, Trump.
Pence has been seen as loyal enough to Trump where the base would probably come out for him.
And, let’s say Pence suddenly stepped up - who do you think he would choose as a VP candidate? He probably would have to go with a woman for the optics and given he is seen as very pro-life, and there are not really that many great female GOP candidates out there
Er. Why have they suspended the market? Some of us have Pence bets for exactly this situation.
And it was always likely that in this situation, the markets would have been suspended. You should be factoring that in to your risk.
Why? Where in there rules does it talk about 'suspension' if one of the candidates gets sick?
I agree with you , but the same thing happened when Johnson took ill. If I recall correctly, the BF markets (e.g. Boris Exit Date) were down for about a week (can someone confirm?).
Market was suspended when Boris ended up in the ICU iirc, not when he was initially diagnosed. The circs are different here, noone had cast a ballot for Boris whilst he was sick. There's a live election taking place right now.
Yes but the point of the Johnson BF suspension was to avoid the possibility of BF getting flak in the media for betting on a tragedy - a charge of bad taste. This current situation mirrors this concern. This is all about BF`s image.
Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
I guess there’s at least a possibility of insider betting for a few days, so a shortish suspension isn’t entirely unreasonable.
Voiding the market would be. Though I have to acknowledge I’m not disinterested in the question.
The whole point of peer to peer betting is insider betting.
That is the purpose of the market. It should not need to be suspended.
If the whole point of peer to peer is 'insider' betting it would seem there is little point in anyone apart from an insider dealing in it as it would essentially be free money at the expense of mugs?
Er. Why have they suspended the market? Some of us have Pence bets for exactly this situation.
And it was always likely that in this situation, the markets would have been suspended. You should be factoring that in to your risk.
Why? Where in there rules does it talk about 'suspension' if one of the candidates gets sick?
I agree with you , but the same thing happened when Johnson took ill. If I recall correctly, the BF markets (e.g. Boris Exit Date) were down for about a week (can someone confirm?).
Market was suspended when Boris ended up in the ICU iirc, not when he was initially diagnosed. The circs are different here, noone had cast a ballot for Boris whilst he was sick. There's a live election taking place right now.
Yes but the point of the Johnson BF suspension was to avoid the possibility of BF getting flak in the media for betting on a tragedy - a charge of bad taste. This current situation mirrors this concern. This is all about BF`s image.
Trump clearly has some symptons, else the tweet about his health would say 'asymptomatic' instead of the euphemism 'doing well'.
That MAY not be so. If I were handling the PR on this, the last thing I would want is to give regular updates saying "now he's got a mild cough... now it's persistent... now he's taken to his bed... now the doctor has gone in...".
"Doing well" covers a range of things from totally normal to fairly poorly but managing at home.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
But that would be under the 25th Amendment, Betfair will only pay out on those who become President via the 12th Amendment.
No, they say they'll pay out when it becomes clear who has the EVs. If Trump is gone before the election, it will be clear that all of 'his' electors will pledge instead for Pence so if Trump/Pence wins a majority of EVs then it's clear that Pence continues as the president.
These would not be faithless electors, as described in the Betfair rules.
I don't see how BF wouldn't pay on Pence in this scenario.
Because in several states the electoral college voters are required by law to vote for the person who won the state, even if that person is dead.
'There are 33 states (plus the District of Columbia) that require electors to vote for a pledged candidate. Most of those states (16 plus DC) nonetheless do not provide for any penalty or any mechanism to prevent the deviant vote from counting as cast. Five states provide a penalty of some sort for a deviant vote, and 14 states provide for the vote to be canceled and the elector replaced (two states do both). The constitutionality of these laws was upheld by the Supreme Court in Chiafalo v. Washington on July 6, 2020.'
IIRC, according to US electoral law, it is too late to run another candidate. So Mike Pence would be the Republican nominee. And given that he isn't Trump and a sympathy vote - could just make it.
Trump is a braying jerkass. Mike Pence had all the bad policies and ideas - but in a more presentable package....
We need some electoral law specialists (I kinow you're out there). In their absence (and I stand to be corrected)
1. I believe it's correct that it's too late for anyone to get on the ballot who isn't there already. 2. Is this an example of how the Electoral College may actually be useful? The GOP announcer that if you vote Trump/Pence, what the electors will do is elect Pence/Ivanka (or whoever, but Mr Ed's suggestion sounds credible to me)? I believe that still works if Trump actually dies - there have been cases at lower level where that happened.
Now, pausing for a moment to sympathise with the Trumps at a personal level, the politics:
1. It's probably right that that the GOP ticket would be stronger with Pence/XXX. The Democrat vote is dangerously based on anti-Trumpism, rather than enthusiasm for Biden. I think that Trump supporters would go for Pence as a gesture of sympathy for their hero, if he asked them to. 2. Pence is a far-right reactionary, but not clearly deranged. The Democrats barely have time to expose his weak points. 3. If Trump gets through it in the manner of Boris, it's hard not to see a bump in support - a lot of Americans are warm, sentimental people who will feel gee, he just got through this awful illness, can't vote him out now. Others will feel hey, what a tough guy, even the virus doesn't get him down. 4. Equally he won't be on top form for a while unless he's asymptomatic. Not sure that will lose him votes, though - a temporarily subdued Trump may be a good idea electorally.
The Democrats should probably hope - quite apart from human sympathy - that Trump proves asymptomatic and this is just another twist in this ridiculously melodramatic year.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
Pretty much my first thought too. Enforced by the though that it is not unlikely that in fact he has already had it, without many symptoms, but not said so in public. There is something about the USA, Trump, elections and the current crisis that makes conspiracy theories attractive.
I don't think you can put anything much in the category of 'impossible', and regrettably we seem to be dealing with someone to whom truth is an unknown stranger.
Putting aside the human element of this and not wanting anyone to be sick...
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
Fantasy.
Possibly. But the whole Democrat campaign has been about Trump, Trump, Trump.
Pence has been seen as loyal enough to Trump where the base would probably come out for him.
And, let’s say Pence suddenly stepped up - who do you think he would choose as a VP candidate? He probably would have to go with a woman for the optics and given he is seen as very pro-life, and there are not really that many great female GOP candidates out there
The whole Republican party for the last four years has been about, and in thrall to, Trump, Trump, Trump.
What’s Pence going to do - declare he was an unwilling hostage for four years ? There’s a difference between guilt by association, and being part of the crime.
Putting aside the human element of this and not wanting anyone to be sick...
I would imagine the person who hopes most Trump is forced to stand aside is McConnell, not Biden. I think Pence as the Republican Presidential candidate would be an ideal scenario for him and the Republicans - someone who has been seen as loyal to Trump’s base and trustworthy enough to keep the flame but not having the same motivating factor for his opponents. I’d also expect, in that scenario, Ivana Trump to be the VP pick - Trump would love to see his daughter be the first US female President and it’s easy given Pence’s age to see him stepping down after one term.
If that happened, I think the Republicans would wipe the floor, either with Biden or Harris as the picks. The Democrats’ strategy has been all about opposition to Trump, getting him out etc etc. Take that away and they have nothing, especially so close to an election.
Fantasy.
Possibly. But the whole Democrat campaign has been about Trump, Trump, Trump.
Pence has been seen as loyal enough to Trump where the base would probably come out for him.
And, let’s say Pence suddenly stepped up - who do you think he would choose as a VP candidate? He probably would have to go with a woman for the optics and given he is seen as very pro-life, and there are not really that many great female GOP candidates out there
That's kind of true - against Trump there's no way not to talk about Trump. OTOH IIUC the issues they're advertising about are Covid, Obamacare, Jobs. There's no difference on Obamacare, Pence is supposed to be in charge of the Covid response, and Trump's main advantage is supposed to be that he's good at the economy because he's a businessman.
So if they just switch the candidate I think the Dem messaging still works; Their enthusiasm will be down a bit but the same will be true on the GOP side, and the Dems are already banking votes.
But the hard part for them is if Pence actually gets sworn in as president before the election, which gives the GOP all kinds of control of the optics and the news agenda, and no opportunity for the Dems to respond.
Hugely unlikely simply in an actuarial sense. Trump is in a relatively high risk group (elderly, fat) but Pence is 61 and physically fit.
Additionally, there is a mechanism to choose a new VP if a vacancy arises. It does require Congressional approval, and the House is Democrat - but I cannot for one moment see a delay for someone like Mike Pompeo as it'd be incredibly risk behaviour to play silly buggers in a national crisis of such magnitude (and why bother - they'd be a stand in for weeks).
Maybe Trump's four year reign of lying has got to me: but am I the only one who is thinking 'oh really?' You have the virus?
Hmmm.
Whilst I hope they both recover quickly from this health-wise I don't take anything involving Trump at face value and this is no exception. I'm waiting to see what develops because, frankly, I don't believe there is any stunt too despicable for Trump not to pull it if he thinks he can get away with it.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
Pretty much my first thought too. Enforced by the though that it is not unlikely that in fact he has already had it, without many symptoms, but not said so in public. There is something about the USA, Trump, elections and the current crisis that makes conspiracy theories attractive.
I don't think you can put anything much in the category of 'impossible', and regrettably we seem to be dealing with someone to whom truth is an unknown stranger.
Glad I'm not alone.
Of course the President's personal physician would have to be in on it.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
I did float the question of a hoax early in this thread
Surely not
I understand why people would consider this, because most of what Trump says is a falsehood. However, keep it simple.
The diagnosis means that Trump has to cancel rallies. Trump loves his rallies more than anything, except perhaps fawning over foreign dictators. Trump would not voluntarily give up on his rallies. The diagnosis is not a hoax.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
But that would be under the 25th Amendment, Betfair will only pay out on those who become President via the 12th Amendment.
For election winner markets, not for next president markets.
Please can we spare a moment to think about the Coronavirus. Out there is a virus that has found itself inside Donald Trump. How lost and confused it must be right now. Could it exchange DNA and mutate into a more right wing and populist version of itself? Scary times. The last thing we need is a Trump Corona Hybrid..
"Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond."
This is the bit you should be aware of, from the next President market.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
So there is, in reality, no reason at all for voiding the market.
Indeed, plenty of us having been building up our betting portfolios for nearly four years.
Except that because postal voting has started, it is not clear how and even whether Trump votes transfer to Pence if Trump drops out. We could end up with Trump 20%, Pence 35% and Biden 45% leading to President Pence being inaugurated but Betfair settling on Biden even though he has lost, because he has most named ECVs. This would be an unsustainable and highly controversial mess.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
I did float the question of a hoax early in this thread
Surely not
I understand why people would consider this, because most of what Trump says is a falsehood. However, keep it simple.
The diagnosis means that Trump has to cancel rallies. Trump loves his rallies more than anything, except perhaps fawning over foreign dictators. Trump would not voluntarily give up on his rallies. The diagnosis is not a hoax.
Persuasive logic. I think you're right.
How will all those Trump supporting 'Covid is hoax' nutters take this news?
Am I the only PBer who thinks Trump having covid will make no difference to the race?
I think it is likely to make no difference, but we won't know. Perhaps Biden wins with a 5% margin and it appears testing positive had no impact, but had Trump stayed Corona Free, he would have scrambled enough back to hold on to PA and the 270 ECV. All such analysis will just be based on counterfactual.
Am I the only PBer who thinks Trump having covid will make no difference to the race?
This is probably right. He probably won't die or get seriously ill, he probably won't use it as a chance to pull out, not that many people go to rallies in the grand scheme of things, and even though the debate situation may change it probably wouldn't have made any difference anyhow.
OTOH we're obviously going to talk about the many ways in which it *could* change the race.
Am I the only PBer who thinks Trump having covid will make no difference to the race?
No. I think that's the most likely outcome. As mentioned down thread, Johnson's hospitalisation had no discernable polling impact.
But it's an unknown - the fact it COULD boost him from sympathy OR hurt him by undercutting his efforts to downplay the issue OR in extremis lead to Pence becoming President, all make it interesting even if the more likely outcome is a wash.
Actuarial risk is part of gambling and something I've been factoring into my strategy.
I guess there’s at least a possibility of insider betting for a few days, so a shortish suspension isn’t entirely unreasonable.
Voiding the market would be. Though I have to acknowledge I’m not disinterested in the question.
The whole point of peer to peer betting is insider betting.
That is the purpose of the market. It should not need to be suspended.
If the whole point of peer to peer is 'insider' betting it would seem there is little point in anyone apart from an insider dealing in it as it would essentially be free money at the expense of mugs?
Yes.
Just as in poker if you don't know who the sucker is then it's you.
It's the reason I've never had any desire to bet on horse racing.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
But that would be under the 25th Amendment, Betfair will only pay out on those who become President via the 12th Amendment.
For election winner markets, not for next president markets.
Nope, see the highlighted section also note the last sentence, right at the bottom.
I'm sorry the more I think about this the more I think this is just too convenient a way to turn over the whole card table just a month or so from the election from a man who it appears has lost.
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
No. That didn't cross my mind, but it was my wife's first thought.
I did float the question of a hoax early in this thread
Surely not
I understand why people would consider this, because most of what Trump says is a falsehood. However, keep it simple.
The diagnosis means that Trump has to cancel rallies. Trump loves his rallies more than anything, except perhaps fawning over foreign dictators. Trump would not voluntarily give up on his rallies. The diagnosis is not a hoax.
It is not a diagnosis, as he is not (at the moment) ill. He has tested positive for the COV2 virus.
Am I the only PBer who thinks Trump having covid will make no difference to the race?
I think it is likely to make no difference, but we won't know. Perhaps Biden wins with a 5% margin and it appears testing positive had no impact, but had Trump stayed Corona Free, he would have scrambled enough back to hold on to PA and the 270 ECV. All such analysis will just be based on counterfactual.
Ha! Then Trump claims the outcome is unfair because he wasn't well and says he 'won really'.
"Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond."
This is the bit you should be aware of, from the next President market.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
So there is, in reality, no reason at all for voiding the market.
Indeed, plenty of us having been building up our betting portfolios for nearly four years.
Except that because postal voting has started, it is not clear how and even whether Trump votes transfer to Pence if Trump drops out. We could end up with Trump 20%, Pence 35% and Biden 45% leading to President Pence being inaugurated but Betfair settling on Biden even though he has lost, because he has most named ECVs. This would be an unsustainable and highly controversial mess.
I may be missing something but I think they obviously transfer, assuming Trump supports Pence? They're selecting Trump/Pence-supporting electors, the electors would be the same even if there was no Trump.
Why? California was a non-slavery State which only joined the USA in 1850.
But slavery was practiced in California post 1850 (and as well prior to 1850.)
Was it? I did not know that. What on earth then did it mean to be a non-slavery State?
It's de jure against de facto.
With the 1848 defeat of Mexico, California and other Mexican territories were ceded to U.S. rule (the Mexican Cession) under the terms of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the war.
However, at the time, the 30-state nation was divided equally between 15 free states and 15 slave states. With the addition of vast new, agriculturally-rich territories, including California, the debate over slavery intensified dramatically. California itself was divided over the issue, as a large number of slave-owning Southerners had travelled to California to seek their fortunes in the 1849 Gold Rush, and many brought their slaves. Many miners expressed concern that slaveholders accompanied by slaves had an unfair advantage in the mining camps and that slavery's inherent inequality violated "the independent entrepreneurial sprit of the mines."[4] However, taking slaves into California, which had no laws or enforcement mechanisms for maintaining the institution, turned out to be quite risky for the slave owners themselves. The territory had no slave patrols, nor local police interested in maintaining slavery, so slave escapes were quite common.[5]
.....Although California entered the Union as a free state, the framers of the state constitution wrote into law the systematic denial of suffrage and other civil rights to non-white citizens. Some authorities went so far as to attempt to deny entry of all African-Americans, free and slave, to California. The Legislature passed a bill that would ban the immigration of free blacks to California. State Senator David C. Broderick, a fierce opponent of slavery and former firefighter from San Francisco, managed to kill the bill through parliamentary maneuver.
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
But that would be under the 25th Amendment, Betfair will only pay out on those who become President via the 12th Amendment.
No, they say they'll pay out when it becomes clear who has the EVs. If Trump is gone before the election, it will be clear that all of 'his' electors will pledge instead for Pence so if Trump/Pence wins a majority of EVs then it's clear that Pence continues as the president.
These would not be faithless electors, as described in the Betfair rules.
I don't see how BF wouldn't pay on Pence in this scenario.
Because in several states the electoral college voters are required by law to vote for the person who won the state, even if that person is dead.
'There are 33 states (plus the District of Columbia) that require electors to vote for a pledged candidate. Most of those states (16 plus DC) nonetheless do not provide for any penalty or any mechanism to prevent the deviant vote from counting as cast. Five states provide a penalty of some sort for a deviant vote, and 14 states provide for the vote to be canceled and the elector replaced (two states do both). The constitutionality of these laws was upheld by the Supreme Court in Chiafalo v. Washington on July 6, 2020.'
Pence can't "win", the ballots are already printed.
If Trump resigns/is incacipated/dies, and still wins the election, Pence becomes president, under one of the amendments (someone quoted which one, above)
But that would be under the 25th Amendment, Betfair will only pay out on those who become President via the 12th Amendment.
No, they say they'll pay out when it becomes clear who has the EVs. If Trump is gone before the election, it will be clear that all of 'his' electors will pledge instead for Pence so if Trump/Pence wins a majority of EVs then it's clear that Pence continues as the president.
These would not be faithless electors, as described in the Betfair rules.
I don't see how BF wouldn't pay on Pence in this scenario.
Because in several states the electoral college voters are required by law to vote for the person who won the state, even if that person is dead.
'There are 33 states (plus the District of Columbia) that require electors to vote for a pledged candidate. Most of those states (16 plus DC) nonetheless do not provide for any penalty or any mechanism to prevent the deviant vote from counting as cast. Five states provide a penalty of some sort for a deviant vote, and 14 states provide for the vote to be canceled and the elector replaced (two states do both). The constitutionality of these laws was upheld by the Supreme Court in Chiafalo v. Washington on July 6, 2020.'
I've been banging on for ages that is has the potential to get very messy.
The Supreme Court ruled on this and said, according to New York Times:
'Justice Kagan said the possibility of a candidate’s death after Election Day raised important questions. “We do not dismiss how much turmoil such an event could cause,” she wrote, adding that “because the situation is not before us, nothing in this opinion should be taken to permit the states to bind electors to a deceased candidate.”'
So having a law to prevent faithless electors does not prevent elector redirection after a death.
If Trump is gone before the election and Pence wins 270 votes, he'll remain president, no question.
Comments
They shouldn't be allowed to suspend the market without having made clear in advance that these circumstances would have allowed them to do so.
Didn't OGH say it was the biggest political betting market in their history? Imagine if they void it. What a mess.
As for Trump voters - I think they'd vote for Pence out of loyalty to Trump.
(Personally I think Pence is an awful person with awful ideas, but that doesn't really matter)
If Trump survives, and Biden doesn't get it, I think the race is now over. Landslide for Biden as this solidifies the status quo as Trump being irresponsible and Biden being sane. Trump has made a number of bets this year - COVID won't happen, it'll all be over by Easter, Hydrochloroquine will work, etc. and none of them have come off. Quite remarkable bad luck, actually.
I also doubt Pence would make Ivana VP. Firstly, Trump isn't leaving the Presidency this side of January unless, crudely, it's in a pine box. Even if he's very sick, and I hope he isn't, he's not leaving when he has an illness that very ill people often do recover from even if it's a relatively slow road. And if Trump leaves in a pine box, then Pence has a pretty free choice so why pick Ivana? Pence is a pretty conventional politician in terms of style and would chose someone he trusts and who won't outshine him.
Just asking for a friend.
If the only thing that can save US democracy is Trump succumbing to the disease, then it’s pretty well finished anyway.
I am not so pessimistic.
"Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond."
Do I need to call the men in white coats?
Have I lost touch with reality?
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
and if it's a short illness - Hospitalised/full recovery.
Are all great outcomes for Trump. He will come out and say "See, As I told you from the very beginning, it's just a type of Flu. A Chinese Flu. Sure some people die from Flu, and that's sad, that's very sad. But that's life folks, and we don't shut the economy down for Flu"
If Trump were to die before January, Pence is clearly "next President". If the bet is who the Electoral College ratifies as winner, that's still very likely to be Pence if the Trump/Pence ticket wins the election and Trump dies before January. It's only if the bet is which Presidential candidate wins states carrying a majority of EVs that it would appear likely to be Trump even if he'd died before election day because, as you say, it will be his name on the ballot (and indeed lots of votes for both Trump and Biden have actually been cast already).
When's the next debate scheduled for?
I think this is how it could play out...
FIrst up 'Trump' and 'Biden' are on the ballots, 'Pence' and 'Harris' are not.
All the votes will have 'Trump' on the ballot, and not 'Pence'. So people will cast their vote for 'Trump'. Then if Trump dies or some such 'Pence' becomes president.
If 'Trump' loses on the ballots, the next president is Biden even if 'Trump' dies (Providing Biden doesn't die too)
The False Positive Rate is of course a factor in all these tests.
Give it a couple of weeks, if the polling perks up for Trump he can carry on. But if he's doing badly, he can quit and hand over to Pence, in exchange for a promise to lean on prosecutors to lay off him, and pardon him if necessary.
They can play this card whenever they like, and a leader often gets a bounce, so give another two weeks and see how things look. Pence gets a swearing in, an inaugural speech, all kinds of good publicity. I think I'd rate the race under those circumstances as a toss-up, or maybe somewhat favourable to Pence.
Johnson
Bolsanaro
Someone in Africa
Trump
Berlusconi
Those who haven't
Everyone else (not verified)
Your assertion of a Pence landslide, or even victory may be accurate, but there is little empirical evidence to back up your view I would say particularly against Harris.
These are strange times and a sympathy vote for Pence for Trump's passing is not beyond the realms of possibly. But let's hope Trump recovers and experiences the drubbing he deserves.
Pence attracts back life long GOPers who were turned off by Trump.
The fact that he has caught it, but is carrying on (assuming he survives) arguably boosts that message, because it shows he has been prepared to take the personal risks (and suffered for it) that he has encouraged others to do. He's even on the record as having downplayed the severity because of the effect on the economy.
Surely not
These would not be faithless electors, as described in the Betfair rules.
I don't see how BF wouldn't pay on Pence in this scenario.
Pence has been seen as loyal enough to Trump where the base would probably come out for him.
And, let’s say Pence suddenly stepped up - who do you think he would choose as a VP candidate? He probably would have to go with a woman for the optics and given he is seen as very pro-life, and there are not really that many great female GOP candidates out there
"Doing well" covers a range of things from totally normal to fairly poorly but managing at home.
'There are 33 states (plus the District of Columbia) that require electors to vote for a pledged candidate. Most of those states (16 plus DC) nonetheless do not provide for any penalty or any mechanism to prevent the deviant vote from counting as cast. Five states provide a penalty of some sort for a deviant vote, and 14 states provide for the vote to be canceled and the elector replaced (two states do both). The constitutionality of these laws was upheld by the Supreme Court in Chiafalo v. Washington on July 6, 2020.'
https://www.fairvote.org/faithless_elector_state_laws
I've been banging on for ages that is has the potential to get very messy.
1. I believe it's correct that it's too late for anyone to get on the ballot who isn't there already.
2. Is this an example of how the Electoral College may actually be useful? The GOP announcer that if you vote Trump/Pence, what the electors will do is elect Pence/Ivanka (or whoever, but Mr Ed's suggestion sounds credible to me)? I believe that still works if Trump actually dies - there have been cases at lower level where that happened.
Now, pausing for a moment to sympathise with the Trumps at a personal level, the politics:
1. It's probably right that that the GOP ticket would be stronger with Pence/XXX. The Democrat vote is dangerously based on anti-Trumpism, rather than enthusiasm for Biden. I think that Trump supporters would go for Pence as a gesture of sympathy for their hero, if he asked them to.
2. Pence is a far-right reactionary, but not clearly deranged. The Democrats barely have time to expose his weak points.
3. If Trump gets through it in the manner of Boris, it's hard not to see a bump in support - a lot of Americans are warm, sentimental people who will feel gee, he just got through this awful illness, can't vote him out now. Others will feel hey, what a tough guy, even the virus doesn't get him down.
4. Equally he won't be on top form for a while unless he's asymptomatic. Not sure that will lose him votes, though - a temporarily subdued Trump may be a good idea electorally.
The Democrats should probably hope - quite apart from human sympathy - that Trump proves asymptomatic and this is just another twist in this ridiculously melodramatic year.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1311828242517680135
I don't think you can put anything much in the category of 'impossible', and regrettably we seem to be dealing with someone to whom truth is an unknown stranger.
What’s Pence going to do - declare he was an unwilling hostage for four years ?
There’s a difference between guilt by association, and being part of the crime.
As I say, fantasy.
I'm extremely suspicious.
So if they just switch the candidate I think the Dem messaging still works; Their enthusiasm will be down a bit but the same will be true on the GOP side, and the Dems are already banking votes.
But the hard part for them is if Pence actually gets sworn in as president before the election, which gives the GOP all kinds of control of the optics and the news agenda, and no opportunity for the Dems to respond.
Additionally, there is a mechanism to choose a new VP if a vacancy arises. It does require Congressional approval, and the House is Democrat - but I cannot for one moment see a delay for someone like Mike Pompeo as it'd be incredibly risk behaviour to play silly buggers in a national crisis of such magnitude (and why bother - they'd be a stand in for weeks).
Of course the President's personal physician would have to be in on it.
The diagnosis means that Trump has to cancel rallies. Trump loves his rallies more than anything, except perhaps fawning over foreign dictators. Trump would not voluntarily give up on his rallies. The diagnosis is not a hoax.
How will all those Trump supporting 'Covid is hoax' nutters take this news?
OTOH we're obviously going to talk about the many ways in which it *could* change the race.
But it's an unknown - the fact it COULD boost him from sympathy OR hurt him by undercutting his efforts to downplay the issue OR in extremis lead to Pence becoming President, all make it interesting even if the more likely outcome is a wash.
Just as in poker if you don't know who the sucker is then it's you.
It's the reason I've never had any desire to bet on horse racing.
How many people who have been in contact with Trump now have to self-isolate? (Biden? GOP leaders?)
and related:
Is there any way in which Trump's Covid announcement affects the SCOTUS nomination?
I am confident that me choosing him for Deadpool will have no effect on his prognosis.
With the 1848 defeat of Mexico, California and other Mexican territories were ceded to U.S. rule (the Mexican Cession) under the terms of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the war.
However, at the time, the 30-state nation was divided equally between 15 free states and 15 slave states. With the addition of vast new, agriculturally-rich territories, including California, the debate over slavery intensified dramatically. California itself was divided over the issue, as a large number of slave-owning Southerners had travelled to California to seek their fortunes in the 1849 Gold Rush, and many brought their slaves. Many miners expressed concern that slaveholders accompanied by slaves had an unfair advantage in the mining camps and that slavery's inherent inequality violated "the independent entrepreneurial sprit of the mines."[4] However, taking slaves into California, which had no laws or enforcement mechanisms for maintaining the institution, turned out to be quite risky for the slave owners themselves. The territory had no slave patrols, nor local police interested in maintaining slavery, so slave escapes were quite common.[5]
.....Although California entered the Union as a free state, the framers of the state constitution wrote into law the systematic denial of suffrage and other civil rights to non-white citizens. Some authorities went so far as to attempt to deny entry of all African-Americans, free and slave, to California. The Legislature passed a bill that would ban the immigration of free blacks to California. State Senator David C. Broderick, a fierce opponent of slavery and former firefighter from San Francisco, managed to kill the bill through parliamentary maneuver.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_slavery_in_California#Slavery_under_U.S._rule
In practice I believe it had enough loopholes there were slaves until 1865.
The fact that nobody is alive from before 1865 should surely be more relevant than the nominal ban on slavery that didn't entirely work in practice.
'Justice Kagan said the possibility of a candidate’s death after Election Day raised important questions. “We do not dismiss how much turmoil such an event could cause,” she wrote, adding that “because the situation is not before us, nothing in this opinion should be taken to permit the states to bind electors to a deceased candidate.”'
So having a law to prevent faithless electors does not prevent elector redirection after a death.
If Trump is gone before the election and Pence wins 270 votes, he'll remain president, no question.