Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t – politicalbetting.com
James Frayne, boss of Public First which did polling for No10, tells @TimesRadio "The public are obsessed by seeing their families… won't forgive a government which puts the structure of the country ahead of ordinary people's lives"They are dicing with political death here"
Comments
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National lockdowns to be presented before the House.
But not a series of regional lockdowns that happen to cover 90% of the country presumably.2 -
Eight patients have died with coronavirus at a hospital where 82 cases have been linked to an outbreak on the site.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-543517240 -
But you were suggesting that someone cannot legitimately travel from an area with no restriction in England, to an area of Wales outside the new restrictions because they can't go into Conwy, which is not true. Travel to that destination is a legitimate reason. Do you really believe the police are going to be stopping cars at the border? That may have occurred during the first, national, lockdown, but we are in very different times, with keeping the economy going a concern. Traffic levels are at or close to normal now. I don't understand why you think it is illegal to travel across Conwy to Anglesey as described above.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course there will not be roadblocks and I cannot speak about enforcement in South Walesturbotubbs said:
There will not be roadblocks. There aren't on the M4 in south wales now. You are over-reacting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Anyone intending coming across the border from tonight will have to have a genuine reason including work and medical issues but not leisure and I expect this will be enforcedturbotubbs said:
Its a direct quote from the document you linked FFS. Under Travel and public transport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not for leisure purposesturbotubbs said:
And I quote:Big_G_NorthWales said:
These are the rules in Conwyturbotubbs said:
I went through areas ALREADY under these rules last week. There was no barrier. I know during the first lockdown there were police checks in areas - I am sceptical that that is the case now. Or indeed in Conwy when the new measures come into place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do realise this comes in at 6.00pm tonight in North Walesturbotubbs said:
I didn't see that on the M4 - maybe the case for minor roads? And as you can still travel for work, I doubt this it true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They cannot get there as most authorities from the border are closed to traffic coming in from EnglandFoxy said:
There was a similar question on 5 live yesterday. Apparently Anglesey is not in the restricted area, so fine to go and stay. At least it was fine yesterday...🙄OldKingCole said:
I have relations with a holiday caravan on Anglesey. They live in Lancashire. I assume that the caravan is now inaccessible by road. After all one cannot, without an enormous detour get from just N of Manchester to Beaumaris by road without going through Conwy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually that is the best advice any politician can giveMexicanpete said:Alok Sharma, the thinking man's Gillian Keegan is on Radio 4 now. A bit tetchy with Martha Kearney.
If one needs to know the rules, go on line, is Mr Sharma's go to statement.
Here in Conwy CBC we were instructed to go into lockdown tonight and everyone I know and on social media spoke about Conwy web site that provides all the information that is necessary
We are not allowed to cross into another authority's area apart from for work, we are not allowed to leave to go away on holiday, and those on holiday here must go home
My hometown of Llandudno was just recovering and now Mark Drakeford has slammed the door on our hotels and guest houses
AIUI they're intending to visit next week.
https://gov.wales/conwy-county-borough-lockdown-frequently-asked-questions
"Can I travel through Conwy County Borough to reach a destination not in the Borough?
If you have to travel along a road that passes through the area and you have no other reasonable option to travel to your destination, then this is allowed."
However, here in North Wales all four local authorities close to the English border have put in the same regulations and the relevant regulation states:-
Residents cannot leave the area (in our case Conwy CBC ) without good reason. Similarly those who live outside the area cannot enter without good reason.
You can only be exempt from these rules if you have a reasonable excuse including work or visiting family for compassionate reasons
If you do not have a good reason to stay in the area you should leave as soon as practicable
Travelling to a second home is not considered a reasonable excuse
The only exception is if you have to travel along a road that passes through the areas and have no other reasonable options to reach your destination then that is allowed
The police in Wales have been given powers to enforce these regulations
All the above commences at 6.00pm tonight but one other difference from the previous lockdown is that travel by residents is not just limited to 5 miles, but to your county boundary.
And no this is not hyperbole, this happens in Wrexham, Denbighshire, Flintshire, and Conwy tonight0 -
No region not even the NE is locked down like in March to June.rottenborough said:National lockdowns to be presented before the House.
But not a series of regional lockdowns that happen to cover 90% of the country presumably.
Hope it stays that way.0 -
My instinct is this:
- a substantial minority (but not a majority, yet) wish to see restrictions lifted.
- this minority will change their views in a heatbeat if the death toll spikes again
- so, if the government loosens, and deaths and infections stay muted, it will be OK
- but if they spike, it is the government who will be blamed6 -
The public want restrictions for everybody else.4
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Like building affordable homes.....MaxPB said:The public want restrictions for everybody else.
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And "fair" taxes...FrancisUrquhart said:
Like building affordable homes.....MaxPB said:The public want restrictions for everybody else.
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Yeah, but not here of course.FrancisUrquhart said:
Like building affordable homes.....MaxPB said:The public want restrictions for everybody else.
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Talking of which, I've been trying to find out whether the new restrictions in the NE also apply to Barnard Castle or not, but nobody seems to know. Can anybody help? It would be short-sighted not to have clarity on this.eek said:
The Cummings effect...MaxPB said:The public want restrictions for everybody else.
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The effect of lockdown is being felt very, very unevenly still.
If you are in, say, the events business, you may have lost everything. If you are over 67 tripled locked up with your pension, the disruption may have been very light indeed.
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My experience in various social groups aligns with Frayne - but really it seems to me that Page is talking about different things to Frayne...
Any government that cancels Christmas is going to be terribly, terribly unpopular. Rule of 6 will be tolerated, I think, no social interactions at all will lead to uproar.0 -
Unless you've died from Covid, of course.contrarian said:The effect of lockdown is being felt very, very unevenly still.
If you are in, say, the events business, you may have lost everything. If you are over 67 tripled locked up with your pension, the disruption may have been very light indeed.2 -
Ha ha. Yes they do.Northern_Al said:
Talking of which, I've been trying to find out whether the new restrictions in the NE also apply to Barnard Castle or not, but nobody seems to know. Can anybody help? It would be short-sighted not to have clarity on this.eek said:
The Cummings effect...MaxPB said:The public want restrictions for everybody else.
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Or you've died of cancer through being ignored by the NHS. Or heart disease. Or flu. Or another of the myriad other diseases that apparently do not exist any more.Northern_Al said:
Unless you've died from Covid, of course.contrarian said:The effect of lockdown is being felt very, very unevenly still.
If you are in, say, the events business, you may have lost everything. If you are over 67 tripled locked up with your pension, the disruption may have been very light indeed.1 -
Apparently today's press conference is the 100th coronavirus briefing.0
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That's what we have up here pretty much.Mortimer said:My experience in various social groups aligns with Frayne - but really it seems to me that Page is talking about different things to Frayne...
Any government that cancels Christmas is going to be terribly, terribly unpopular. Rule of 6 will be tolerated, I think, no social interactions at all will lead to uproar.
It hasn't led to uproar. But then it isn't being enforced. Or observed.0 -
My non-scientific observation is that a majority of people more-or-less follow the restrictions most of the time. There is a largeish minority (25%?) who are oblivious.0
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I am happy to do
No tanks or snatch Land Rovers on the Prince of Wales Bridge earlier today. Nothing more sinister than a couple of Highways Agency Shoguns on the M4.turbotubbs said:
But you were suggesting that someone cannot legitimately travel from an area with no restriction in England, to an area of Wales outside the new restrictions because they can't go into Conwy, which is not true. Travel to that destination is a legitimate reason. Do you really believe the police are going to be stopping cars at the border? That may have occurred during the first, national, lockdown, but we are in very different times, with keeping the economy going a concern. Traffic levels are at or close to normal now. I don't understand why you think it is illegal to travel across Conwy to Anglesey as described above.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course there will not be roadblocks and I cannot speak about enforcement in South Walesturbotubbs said:
There will not be roadblocks. There aren't on the M4 in south wales now. You are over-reacting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Anyone intending coming across the border from tonight will have to have a genuine reason including work and medical issues but not leisure and I expect this will be enforcedturbotubbs said:
Its a direct quote from the document you linked FFS. Under Travel and public transport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not for leisure purposesturbotubbs said:
And I quote:Big_G_NorthWales said:
These are the rules in Conwyturbotubbs said:
I went through areas ALREADY under these rules last week. There was no barrier. I know during the first lockdown there were police checks in areas - I am sceptical that that is the case now. Or indeed in Conwy when the new measures come into place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do realise this comes in at 6.00pm tonight in North Walesturbotubbs said:
I didn't see that on the M4 - maybe the case for minor roads? And as you can still travel for work, I doubt this it true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They cannot get there as most authorities from the border are closed to traffic coming in from EnglandFoxy said:
There was a similar question on 5 live yesterday. Apparently Anglesey is not in the restricted area, so fine to go and stay. At least it was fine yesterday...🙄OldKingCole said:
I have relations with a holiday caravan on Anglesey. They live in Lancashire. I assume that the caravan is now inaccessible by road. After all one cannot, without an enormous detour get from just N of Manchester to Beaumaris by road without going through Conwy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually that is the best advice any politician can giveMexicanpete said:Alok Sharma, the thinking man's Gillian Keegan is on Radio 4 now. A bit tetchy with Martha Kearney.
If one needs to know the rules, go on line, is Mr Sharma's go to statement.
Here in Conwy CBC we were instructed to go into lockdown tonight and everyone I know and on social media spoke about Conwy web site that provides all the information that is necessary
We are not allowed to cross into another authority's area apart from for work, we are not allowed to leave to go away on holiday, and those on holiday here must go home
My hometown of Llandudno was just recovering and now Mark Drakeford has slammed the door on our hotels and guest houses
AIUI they're intending to visit next week.
https://gov.wales/conwy-county-borough-lockdown-frequently-asked-questions
"Can I travel through Conwy County Borough to reach a destination not in the Borough?
If you have to travel along a road that passes through the area and you have no other reasonable option to travel to your destination, then this is allowed."
However, here in North Wales all four local authorities close to the English border have put in the same regulations and the relevant regulation states:-
Residents cannot leave the area (in our case Conwy CBC ) without good reason. Similarly those who live outside the area cannot enter without good reason.
You can only be exempt from these rules if you have a reasonable excuse including work or visiting family for compassionate reasons
If you do not have a good reason to stay in the area you should leave as soon as practicable
Travelling to a second home is not considered a reasonable excuse
The only exception is if you have to travel along a road that passes through the areas and have no other reasonable options to reach your destination then that is allowed
The police in Wales have been given powers to enforce these regulations
All the above commences at 6.00pm tonight but one other difference from the previous lockdown is that travel by residents is not just limited to 5 miles, but to your county boundary.
And no this is not hyperbole, this happens in Wrexham, Denbighshire, Flintshire, and Conwy tonight0 -
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My Buzzword Bingo failed badly, as always. Only "Clinton" was a hit.0
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I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:1 -
I agree with Ben Page too - one community that has got COVID under control - Guernsey - has widespread popular support for both border controls and stiff fines (latest £5,000 for a pensioner who went for a pint "by himself, so he was isolating") for those who breach the rules.1
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I think you'd find that if you had your way and let Covid rip through the population, then the NHS would be even less capable of treating cancer, heart disease and flu than it currently is, as it would be swamped by Covid patients - many of whom would die.contrarian said:
Or you've died of cancer through being ignored by the NHS. Or heart disease. Or flu. Or another of the myriad other diseases that apparently do not exist any more.Northern_Al said:
Unless you've died from Covid, of course.contrarian said:The effect of lockdown is being felt very, very unevenly still.
If you are in, say, the events business, you may have lost everything. If you are over 67 tripled locked up with your pension, the disruption may have been very light indeed.1 -
Cummings is just trolling...everyone!FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Trump's second easiest target according to 538 (NV -> NH -> MN)
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1311317560361656320
Probably a good poll for Biden in relation to Maine-2 (Which Trump holds)0 -
They do as Barnard Castle is in County Durham...Northern_Al said:
Talking of which, I've been trying to find out whether the new restrictions in the NE also apply to Barnard Castle or not, but nobody seems to know. Can anybody help? It would be short-sighted not to have clarity on this.eek said:
The Cummings effect...MaxPB said:The public want restrictions for everybody else.
We had this exact conversation yesterday while trying to work out whether a friend was included or excluded in the rules and we couldn't work out which part whether the village was in County Durham (under restrictions) or Darlington (not under restrictions).0 -
But she's in favour of immigration and being kind to economic migrants/refugees/asylum seekers (delete as appropriate).FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:
You don't mean to suggest that she'll use this for further grievance mongering rather than another (eh? - ed.) demonstration of Scotland's superior attitude to them?
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While true, I don't think this feeds very much into the compliance question. If you have lost your job because of Covid effects, you personally ignoring social distancing requirements doesn't get you your job back. In general those most vulnerable to catching the disease are also more likely to lose their livelihoods, as well as possibly their lives. They work in risky situations because they have to.contrarian said:The effect of lockdown is being felt very, very unevenly still.
If you are in, say, the events business, you may have lost everything. If you are over 67 tripled locked up with your pension, the disruption may have been very light indeed.
Those are most insulated from the effects are those most likely to be opposed to Covid interventions. The wealthy right wing minority referred to in the tweet.0 -
Are Labour abstaining on the renewal of the COVID regulations?
If so that is remarkable. Clearly happy with Ministers having these powers, if I was them I'd be voting against and telling the Government to come back with a new Bill that gave Parliament more oversight of regulations.0 -
Hmm - from my experience of the islands the problem would be getting the guards to move up there, never mind keep them after the first winter. The rapid expansion of water supply, sanitation, etc., would also be a major problem, unless we are going back to the good old mid-C20 style wooden huts and pit latrines, though I don't discount thew abilities of the REs (having worked alongside a former senior NCO of the Corps). As would transport. And planning permission (remember, a devolved responsibility).CarlottaVance said:
If one were really serious about it, then Mainland of Orkney would be the best bet as a compromise between access and the other factors - but then the Coalition is long over and trolling the LDs a mainstream aim of the Tories.0 -
Thoroughly good news about sectioning.
Well done Hancock.0 -
Doesn't that defeat the purpose of not allowing them to make landfall in the UK which makes the process of deporting the chancers much easier and reduces the pull factor for these types to minimal levels.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Nicola wants migrants going to Scotland, what is the issue? 👼🏻FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I am not sure trolling all Scotland is a winning formula for people who assert themselves to be UnionistsCarlottaVance said:0 -
I don't think it's a question of Frayne being right or Page being right - they're both right.
People remain concerned; particularly by the idea that the pain of lockdown might all be for nothing if another spike comes. There's real anxiety that things are going to get worse and a desire to conform to the rules and keep people safe (generally).
BUT people don't believe that the interactions that bring them risk are the interactions with their family. In all crises we prefer to cleave to our own group and exaggerate the fear of the other. People believe they will catch Covid from reckless strangers not careful friends.
And this is exacerbated by the hopeless inconsistency from the government who allow students to go back to Uni (and amazingly they go out and get drunk and snog each other) but won't allow grandparents to see their grandchildren.1 -
Good God they need to ban mobile phones in the Commons.0
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Well, the whole point is to stop these migrants getting into the UK. Immigration is not devolved.Philip_Thompson said:
Nicola wants migrants going to Scotland, what is the issue? 👼🏻FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:0 -
LOL at Hancock intervening to put down the absolutely nonsensical Bryant.
Bryant has always been a terrible MP.1 -
Only worth doing if Starmer wanted to claim the blame for any future deaths from late lockdowns.Philip_Thompson said:Are Labour abstaining on the renewal of the COVID regulations?
If so that is remarkable. Clearly happy with Ministers having these powers, if I was them I'd be voting against and telling the Government to come back with a new Bill that gave Parliament more oversight of regulations.0 -
Indeed. "It'll be fine cos I know them all" is an understandable reaction.DearPB said:I don't think it's a question of Frayne being right or Page being right - they're both right.
People remain concerned; particularly by the idea that the pain of lockdown might all be for nothing if another spike comes. There's real anxiety that things are going to get worse and a desire to conform to the rules and keep people safe (generally).
BUT people don't believe that the interactions that bring them risk are the interactions with their family. In all crises we prefer to cleave to our own group and exaggerate the fear of the other. People believe they will catch Covid from reckless strangers not careful friends.
And this is exacerbated by the hopeless inconsistency from the government who allow students to go back to Uni (and amazingly they go out and get drunk and snog each other) but won't allow grandparents to see their grandchildren.
But utterly illogical with even a moment's thought.1 -
So you're saying that Starmer just wants to snipe from the sidelines and doesn't want to have any actual responsibility where he can hold to account the Government and take responsibility for voting himself?Mexicanpete said:
Only worth doing if Starmer wanted to claim the blame for any future deaths from late lockdowns.Philip_Thompson said:Are Labour abstaining on the renewal of the COVID regulations?
If so that is remarkable. Clearly happy with Ministers having these powers, if I was them I'd be voting against and telling the Government to come back with a new Bill that gave Parliament more oversight of regulations.
I am shocked, absolutely shocked at your suggestion (!)1 -
Somewhat connected I suppose, I did read an interesting article about how Syrian refugees were copying with a new life on Bute.FF43 said:
I am not sure trolling all Scotland is a winning formula for people who assert themselves to be UnionistsCarlottaVance said:1 -
I was also thinking how the Aussies put their camp at Woomera - which is in the middle of **** all, the place they used for Blue Streak and other rockets and weapons testing. But they moved it to somewhere nearer the 'threat', an island - IoW, Grain, Sheppey, any of those would make much more sense and be more economical.FF43 said:
Somewhat connected I suppose, I did read an interesting article about how Syrian refugees were copying with a new life on Bute.FF43 said:
I am not sure trolling all Scotland is a winning formula for people who assert themselves to be UnionistsCarlottaVance said:0 -
Hardly. This kind of thing is solid gold for the SNP. What could demonstrate Tory contempt for Scotland more clearly than a plan to set up penal colonies on its territory?FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:0 -
But, hang on, less than two hours ago the idea of black women dying disproportionately in pregnancy and childbirth was an hilarious irrelevance to you when raised at pmqs. Your medical concerns are rather gammoniatric, aren't they?contrarian said:
Or you've died of cancer through being ignored by the NHS. Or heart disease. Or flu. Or another of the myriad other diseases that apparently do not exist any more.Northern_Al said:
Unless you've died from Covid, of course.contrarian said:The effect of lockdown is being felt very, very unevenly still.
If you are in, say, the events business, you may have lost everything. If you are over 67 tripled locked up with your pension, the disruption may have been very light indeed.
1 -
Which is the entire point of the non-announcement. That the UK Government is its own fifth column is one of the stranger aspects of politics in these parts.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Hardly. This kind of thing is solid gold for the SNP. What could demonstrate Tory contempt for Scotland more clearly than a plan to set up penal colonies on its territory?FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:0 -
On topic I agree with Mike. We met up with my daughter and her partner on my birthday on Sunday for a meal in a pub but right now we cannot visit her house and she can't visit ours. We have an extended household with my mother in law who is frail, alone and needs us. That's all we are allowed.
Right now this is more than slightly irritating but come Christmas it will be unacceptable. I also usually have my brother and his daughter and my sister and her kids for Christmas dinner. We are, as a family, pretty law abiding folk but that will test us to the limits. My brother is terminally ill. I am not sure how much longer he has left. Its a serious hardship for us and especially for him that he cannot come around to us for a nice meal and some company on a regular basis. He found the last lockdown seriously hard.0 -
I remmber that too - one of them became a barber.FF43 said:
Somewhat connected I suppose, I did read an interesting article about how Syrian refugees were copying with a new life on Bute.FF43 said:
I am not sure trolling all Scotland is a winning formula for people who assert themselves to be UnionistsCarlottaVance said:0 -
From what I recall, some really got into life on the island and others are struggling. Which is to be expected, I guess.Carnyx said:
I remmber that too - one of them became a barber.FF43 said:
Somewhat connected I suppose, I did read an interesting article about how Syrian refugees were copying with a new life on Bute.FF43 said:
I am not sure trolling all Scotland is a winning formula for people who assert themselves to be UnionistsCarlottaVance said:0 -
I think Nicola does that a month.FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently today's press conference is the 100th coronavirus briefing.
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Good news for election nerds. We have a local by-election tomorrow - the first since lockdown. It's in the North Isles ward of Orkney UA. Breaking with tradition there is a Labour candidate plus 2 Independents and a ND. There is only one polling station but most people will vote by post.0
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OK, so yesterday was a weekend effect. Today isn't.0
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@FF43 @Carnyx I remember that too.
Here it is. Can't believe it was 3 years old.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/24/bute-scotland-syrian-refugees-asylum1 -
I entirely agree that it's illogical, but I know very bright logical people who are happy to sit close, and say "oh it's OK it's you".dixiedean said:
Indeed. "It'll be fine cos I know them all" is an understandable reaction.DearPB said:I don't think it's a question of Frayne being right or Page being right - they're both right.
People remain concerned; particularly by the idea that the pain of lockdown might all be for nothing if another spike comes. There's real anxiety that things are going to get worse and a desire to conform to the rules and keep people safe (generally).
BUT people don't believe that the interactions that bring them risk are the interactions with their family. In all crises we prefer to cleave to our own group and exaggerate the fear of the other. People believe they will catch Covid from reckless strangers not careful friends.
And this is exacerbated by the hopeless inconsistency from the government who allow students to go back to Uni (and amazingly they go out and get drunk and snog each other) but won't allow grandparents to see their grandchildren.
But utterly illogical with even a moment's thought.0 -
This explains the rules in crossing the four Welsh Counties to go to non covid restricted ones
In brief you are allowed to travel through them but you cannot stop other than for fuel
Also it comes in from 6.00pm tomorrow night, not tonight
Can visitors travel through lockdown counties to reach Gwynedd and Anglesey
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/can-visitors-travel-through-lockdown-19020391#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare0 -
7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.0
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Yes. And I must confess that I have done so and had others do it to me.DearPB said:
I entirely agree that it's illogical, but I know very bright logical people who are happy to sit close, and say "oh it's OK it's you".dixiedean said:
Indeed. "It'll be fine cos I know them all" is an understandable reaction.DearPB said:I don't think it's a question of Frayne being right or Page being right - they're both right.
People remain concerned; particularly by the idea that the pain of lockdown might all be for nothing if another spike comes. There's real anxiety that things are going to get worse and a desire to conform to the rules and keep people safe (generally).
BUT people don't believe that the interactions that bring them risk are the interactions with their family. In all crises we prefer to cleave to our own group and exaggerate the fear of the other. People believe they will catch Covid from reckless strangers not careful friends.
And this is exacerbated by the hopeless inconsistency from the government who allow students to go back to Uni (and amazingly they go out and get drunk and snog each other) but won't allow grandparents to see their grandchildren.
But utterly illogical with even a moment's thought.
Bonkers. But we aren't rational creatures.0 -
I think sample date data is better than headline figures for gauging changes..Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
The bigger issue is the 1 week lag everything has..1 -
Not at all.Philip_Thompson said:
So you're saying that Starmer just wants to snipe from the sidelines and doesn't want to have any actual responsibility where he can hold to account the Government and take responsibility for voting himself?Mexicanpete said:
Only worth doing if Starmer wanted to claim the blame for any future deaths from late lockdowns.Philip_Thompson said:Are Labour abstaining on the renewal of the COVID regulations?
If so that is remarkable. Clearly happy with Ministers having these powers, if I was them I'd be voting against and telling the Government to come back with a new Bill that gave Parliament more oversight of regulations.
I am shocked, absolutely shocked at your suggestion (!)
But why should Starmer join with the Brady Bunch to give Johnson the shields of Parliament and the Labour Party to hide behind, if Johnson is tardy with any future required lockdown.0 -
May be an uncomfortable, in more ways than one, question, but how do you get to Holyhead with no facilities?Big_G_NorthWales said:This explains the rules in crossing the four Welsh Counties to go to non covid restricted ones
In brief you are allowed to travel through them but you cannot stop other than for fuel
Also it comes in from 6.00pm tomorrow night, not tonight
Can visitors travel through lockdown counties to reach Gwynedd and Anglesey
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/can-visitors-travel-through-lockdown-19020391#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare0 -
Well Mr Smithson if you long to see your children and their families, the answer is simple. See them.
Non-compliance is the only way this ends.2 -
Nice to see @Philip_Thompson whinging that the opposition are not opposing what the government, that he supports, is doing.2
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I just stopped for a comfort break at Cardiff West services. No Stasi in sight!Big_G_NorthWales said:This explains the rules in crossing the four Welsh Counties to go to non covid restricted ones
In brief you are allowed to travel through them but you cannot stop other than for fuel
Also it comes in from 6.00pm tomorrow night, not tonight
Can visitors travel through lockdown counties to reach Gwynedd and Anglesey
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/can-visitors-travel-through-lockdown-19020391#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare0 -
Dare I mention the words linear and growth?Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
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@MikeSmithson - I am confused. You say "... My instinct is to go with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, who is now one of the elder statesmen of the British polling industry.
For me personally the family thing is central and I just long to see my children and their families."
Yet, it seems to me that if family and longing to see them is your issue, then surely Matt Chorley's post would be the more relevant?
Or are you saying that in spite of your personal desires, you think the country as a whole will tolerate being separated from their families?0 -
I don't mean to presume about you and your brother's situation. But if he is terminally ill surely spending his remaining time with his family is more important than a. the very slight risk of covid b. the very slight risk of a fine for breaking an absolutely absurd rule?DavidL said:On topic I agree with Mike. We met up with my daughter and her partner on my birthday on Sunday for a meal in a pub but right now we cannot visit her house and she can't visit ours. We have an extended household with my mother in law who is frail, alone and needs us. That's all we are allowed.
Right now this is more than slightly irritating but come Christmas it will be unacceptable. I also usually have my brother and his daughter and my sister and her kids for Christmas dinner. We are, as a family, pretty law abiding folk but that will test us to the limits. My brother is terminally ill. I am not sure how much longer he has left. Its a serious hardship for us and especially for him that he cannot come around to us for a nice meal and some company on a regular basis. He found the last lockdown seriously hard.
My father spent the last weeks of his life alone due to lockdown. If I knew then what I knew now I would have been kicking down the care home door to see him.1 -
It's a both/and. There is a stupid woman in the Telegraph today complaining in her first paragraph that we should be sheltering the shit out of the elderly and let everybody else get on with it, and in her fourth how terrible it is that 80 somethings can't see their grandchildren. That's lethal-to-the-elderly pandemics for you. And pandemics is really what it is: Johnson is a bumbling arse but that is still less than 1% of the problem. In a Cnut vs the tide scenario there is no point in telling Cnut to up his game, or you'll replace him with SKS. It doesn't make any difference. British exceptionalism is wrong in both directions: we aren't even uniquely useless, we are just having a shit pandemic like every other country in the entire world. Including fcking Sweden.2
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Problem is, restrictions are too blunt an instrument. They are done on category rather than incidence and are only loosely aligned to the risk, and don't take into account personal circumstances. So you can go out to the pub every evening if you want and spend three hours there at a time, but you can't even meet your brother once for half an hour. I am sure you would be happy to sacrifice a pub visit for time with your brother and it is cruel that you can't make that choice.DavidL said:On topic I agree with Mike. We met up with my daughter and her partner on my birthday on Sunday for a meal in a pub but right now we cannot visit her house and she can't visit ours. We have an extended household with my mother in law who is frail, alone and needs us. That's all we are allowed.
Right now this is more than slightly irritating but come Christmas it will be unacceptable. I also usually have my brother and his daughter and my sister and her kids for Christmas dinner. We are, as a family, pretty law abiding folk but that will test us to the limits. My brother is terminally ill. I am not sure how much longer he has left. Its a serious hardship for us and especially for him that he cannot come around to us for a nice meal and some company on a regular basis. He found the last lockdown seriously hard.
The aim should be to do as much as possible of what is collectively and individually important to us, at a sensibly mitigated risk, while eliminating activities that are riskier or aren't important to us, so R is kept to 10 -
So the new-fangled semi- lockdowns are starting to work.Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
0 -
I think people will accept lockdown restrictions for as long as they think that the alternative is worse.
At the moment the most visible alternative in the media is from the Sweden-fantasists who say we can just ignore it, get on with our lives, and it will just magically go away. Most people look at the US and Brazil and think, "no thanks".
What could change this would be an energetic and forensic opposition. If Labour were able to come up with a clear alternative, a convincing way to control the virus without so many general restrictions, then the mood would turn. Labour would be able to argue that the government only had to cancel Christmas because it had bungled testing, or quarantine, etc.
They'd need a clear list of actions the government were failing to take, that might plausibly control the virus while still allowing people to visit their family. But they don't have it.
So the public feel that there is no alternative.0 -
And back in March cases estimated to have been over 1Million....Mexicanpete said:
I just stopped for a comfort break at Cardiff West services. No Stasi in sight!Big_G_NorthWales said:This explains the rules in crossing the four Welsh Counties to go to non covid restricted ones
In brief you are allowed to travel through them but you cannot stop other than for fuel
Also it comes in from 6.00pm tomorrow night, not tonight
Can visitors travel through lockdown counties to reach Gwynedd and Anglesey
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/can-visitors-travel-through-lockdown-19020391#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1311326741361840129/photo/11 -
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1311325079175823362?s=20Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
0 -
I am quite receptive to missing my children for the next few months if it provides me with a better opportunity to meet my future grandchildren.Beibheirli_C said:@MikeSmithson - I am confused. You say "... My instinct is to go with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, who is now one of the elder statesmen of the British polling industry.
For me personally the family thing is central and I just long to see my children and their families."
Yet, it seems to me that if family and longing to see them is your issue, then surely Matt Chorley's post would be the more relevant?
Or are you saying that in spite of your personal desires, you think the country as a whole will tolerate being separated from their families?1 -
Doesn't even seem to be linear, it does seem to be potentially slowing down already *touch wood*DavidL said:
Dare I mention the words linear and growth?Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
Though I would hesitate to say that for certain yet.0 -
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1311325082879483911?s=20isam said:
twitter.com/RP131/status/1311325079175823362?s=20Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
0 -
Better in non-Tory-voting Scotland rather than the Conservative Homeland of the SE? They are not exactly irritating their core vote with this.FF43 said:
Which is the entire point of the non-announcement. That the UK Government is its own fifth column is one of the stranger aspects of politics in these parts.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Hardly. This kind of thing is solid gold for the SNP. What could demonstrate Tory contempt for Scotland more clearly than a plan to set up penal colonies on its territory?FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought I just heard a very loud high pitched screeching. That will have been Nicola seeing this tweet.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I don't want to go into too much detail but he has been "terminal" for some time now. I know sooner or later he is going to fall off a cliff and things will change quickly. I don't know when. Really sad to hear about your father, that is cruel.houndtang said:
I don't mean to presume about you and your brother's situation. But if he is terminally ill surely spending his remaining time with his family is more important than a. the very slight risk of covid b. the very slight risk of a fine for breaking an absolutely absurd rule?DavidL said:On topic I agree with Mike. We met up with my daughter and her partner on my birthday on Sunday for a meal in a pub but right now we cannot visit her house and she can't visit ours. We have an extended household with my mother in law who is frail, alone and needs us. That's all we are allowed.
Right now this is more than slightly irritating but come Christmas it will be unacceptable. I also usually have my brother and his daughter and my sister and her kids for Christmas dinner. We are, as a family, pretty law abiding folk but that will test us to the limits. My brother is terminally ill. I am not sure how much longer he has left. Its a serious hardship for us and especially for him that he cannot come around to us for a nice meal and some company on a regular basis. He found the last lockdown seriously hard.
My father spent the last weeks of his life alone due to lockdown. If I knew then what I knew now I would have been kicking down the care home door to see him.0 -
isam the thing to be wary of though before being certain about that is that the positivity rate has been rising so we're missing more cases now than we were a few weeks ago probably.
There are reasons to be hopeful though, but I would be a lot more confident if the positivity rate starts to go back down.1 -
"Don't ever use that word "smart" with me". More fun, more preaching to the choir...
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1311329064695799810?s=200 -
Was going to say this. Not exactly the doubling of cases per week that was the worst case scenario put out by Whitty & Vallence last week. Nowhere near.isam said:
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1311325079175823362?s=20Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
0 -
I know not one person who agrees with this view.LostPassword said:I think people will accept lockdown restrictions for as long as they think that the alternative is worse.
At the moment the most visible alternative in the media is from the Sweden-fantasists who say we can just ignore it, get on with our lives, and it will just magically go away. Most people look at the US and Brazil and think, "no thanks".
What could change this would be an energetic and forensic opposition. If Labour were able to come up with a clear alternative, a convincing way to control the virus without so many general restrictions, then the mood would turn. Labour would be able to argue that the government only had to cancel Christmas because it had bungled testing, or quarantine, etc.
They'd need a clear list of actions the government were failing to take, that might plausibly control the virus while still allowing people to visit their family. But they don't have it.
So the public feel that there is no alternative.0 -
Wait, this is using reporting date not specimen date.isam said:
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1311325079175823362?s=20Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
0 -
Strong opposition leads to better governance. I said that even before the last election.Gallowgate said:Nice to see @Philip_Thompson whinging that the opposition are not opposing what the government, that he supports, is doing.
The country is not best served by having weak opposition. They don't need to oppose what the government is doing but they should be trying to hold it to account and challenging it to bring measures before Parliament.0 -
That would keep my juicer busy for a while!isam said:0 -
What is that point of including data that is to be ignored? It just confuses the issue.isam said:
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1311325082879483911?s=20isam said:
twitter.com/RP131/status/1311325079175823362?s=20Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
0 -
As I said yesterday - what a huge irony. Doubly so.Mexicanpete said:
Not at all.Philip_Thompson said:
So you're saying that Starmer just wants to snipe from the sidelines and doesn't want to have any actual responsibility where he can hold to account the Government and take responsibility for voting himself?Mexicanpete said:
Only worth doing if Starmer wanted to claim the blame for any future deaths from late lockdowns.Philip_Thompson said:Are Labour abstaining on the renewal of the COVID regulations?
If so that is remarkable. Clearly happy with Ministers having these powers, if I was them I'd be voting against and telling the Government to come back with a new Bill that gave Parliament more oversight of regulations.
I am shocked, absolutely shocked at your suggestion (!)
But why should Starmer join with the Brady Bunch to give Johnson the shields of Parliament and the Labour Party to hide behind, if Johnson is tardy with any future required lockdown.
Jeremy Corbyn realised better than SKS what it means to be in opposition.
Corbyn voted against the govt and failed to bring it down because he didn't have the numbers.
SKS has the numbers but decides to support the govt where he could actually bring it down.0 -
I am not sure how you have jumped from my post to your graph, but someone has liked it, so what do I know?sirclive said:
And back in March cases estimated to have been over 1Million....Mexicanpete said:
I just stopped for a comfort break at Cardiff West services. No Stasi in sight!Big_G_NorthWales said:This explains the rules in crossing the four Welsh Counties to go to non covid restricted ones
In brief you are allowed to travel through them but you cannot stop other than for fuel
Also it comes in from 6.00pm tomorrow night, not tonight
Can visitors travel through lockdown counties to reach Gwynedd and Anglesey
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/can-visitors-travel-through-lockdown-19020391#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1311326741361840129/photo/10 -
That's exactly what they want you to think!Mexicanpete said:
I just stopped for a comfort break at Cardiff West services. No Stasi in sight!Big_G_NorthWales said:This explains the rules in crossing the four Welsh Counties to go to non covid restricted ones
In brief you are allowed to travel through them but you cannot stop other than for fuel
Also it comes in from 6.00pm tomorrow night, not tonight
Can visitors travel through lockdown counties to reach Gwynedd and Anglesey
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/can-visitors-travel-through-lockdown-19020391#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare1 -
I certainly hope so too. That would imply that the measures imposed at the moment are having some effect. Ideally you'd see cases plateau and then drop if you've driven R below one.Philip_Thompson said:
Doesn't even seem to be linear, it does seem to be potentially slowing down already *touch wood*DavidL said:
Dare I mention the words linear and growth?Philip_Thompson said:7,108 reported today vs 6,178 reported same day last week.
Though I would hesitate to say that for certain yet.1 -
Given my mother's age and state of health, I am certain she is Covid free.dixiedean said:
Yes. And I must confess that I have done so and had others do it to me.DearPB said:
I entirely agree that it's illogical, but I know very bright logical people who are happy to sit close, and say "oh it's OK it's you".dixiedean said:
Indeed. "It'll be fine cos I know them all" is an understandable reaction.DearPB said:I don't think it's a question of Frayne being right or Page being right - they're both right.
People remain concerned; particularly by the idea that the pain of lockdown might all be for nothing if another spike comes. There's real anxiety that things are going to get worse and a desire to conform to the rules and keep people safe (generally).
BUT people don't believe that the interactions that bring them risk are the interactions with their family. In all crises we prefer to cleave to our own group and exaggerate the fear of the other. People believe they will catch Covid from reckless strangers not careful friends.
And this is exacerbated by the hopeless inconsistency from the government who allow students to go back to Uni (and amazingly they go out and get drunk and snog each other) but won't allow grandparents to see their grandchildren.
But utterly illogical with even a moment's thought.
Bonkers. But we aren't rational creatures.
Since I am very isolated at present and interact with very, very few people I am fairly certain about my own state too.0 -
Damien Hirst installation ?isam said:0 -
sorry posted too abruptlyMexicanpete said:
I am not sure how you have jumped from my post to your graph, but someone has liked it, so what do I know?sirclive said:
And back in March cases estimated to have been over 1Million....Mexicanpete said:
I just stopped for a comfort break at Cardiff West services. No Stasi in sight!Big_G_NorthWales said:This explains the rules in crossing the four Welsh Counties to go to non covid restricted ones
In brief you are allowed to travel through them but you cannot stop other than for fuel
Also it comes in from 6.00pm tomorrow night, not tonight
Can visitors travel through lockdown counties to reach Gwynedd and Anglesey
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/can-visitors-travel-through-lockdown-19020391#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1311326741361840129/photo/10
