The last Quinnipiac poll in the state three weeks ago had Trump up 51-45 so that's a notable swing. Trump won South Carolina by 14 last time.
Jeepers, if South Carolina is even in play he really is cattle trucked. Good Pollster too.
Who I have down as slightly GOP leaning due to methodological issues (heavy land line reliance) but I realise given how well Biden is doing with oldies the skew might well even out now.
Getting rid of decent civil servants and replacing them with Cummings yes men is what leads you to more of this
It’s just a rehash of the First World War plan to put a steel net between Dover and Calais to keep German submarines out of the channel. They even got as far as building two of the towers that were to be sunk to support the net; one is still used as a light tower off the east coast of the Isle of Wight.
Given 40% at least of US voters will still vote for Trump even if Biden wins comfortably there is no harm having a few Trump supporters on here like MrEd to ensure all views are catered for, this is supposed to be a political betting and discussion forum after all
37% voted for George HW Bush in 1992 and 41% for Carter in 1980 though in both elections there was a more noticeable third party candidate.
I wonder if we will see any swing in any direction after last night's debate - I suspect not.
Rasmussen has Biden up 51-43 - the national swing would be 3% but State polls "suggest" in many states a larger swing to Biden offset (perhaps) by a small recovery in Trump fortunes in Blue strongholds.
Trump polling 43-45% looks very reasonable at present. Will he win the election with that share? Conceivably, yes, actually, no.
If SC went Biden then it would almost be a cert that GA and FL went blue too.
That would be Biden all down the east coast, all down the west with a tiny bit of Real America in between.
Just put a couple of quid on Biden in SC.
What the hell, probably just lost my money, but if it did happen my joy would be added to by a 6/1 win.
I think SC is like the national election in reverse. Trump on a solid 50% wit Biden gaining in him continually but at to slow a rate to win and without Trump actually decreasing.
Getting rid of decent civil servants and replacing them with Cummings yes men is what leads you to more of this
It’s just a rehash of the First World War plan to put a steel net between Dover and Calais to keep German submarines out of the channel. They even got as far as building two of the towers that were to be sunk to support the net; one is still used as a light tower off the east coast of the Isle of Wight.
If SC went Biden then it would almost be a cert that GA and FL went blue too.
That would be Biden all down the east coast, all down the west with a tiny bit of Real America in between.
Just put a couple of quid on Biden in SC.
What the hell, probably just lost my money, but if it did happen my joy would be added to by a 6/1 win.
I would need to see a couple more SC polls heading in the same direction before I moved it to the TCTC column on the Stodge Mastermap. Quinnipiac might be an outlier.
If you're going to go big on Biden you're going to hope he wins the likes of Texas, Florida and Georgia - I'm to be convinced. It's 83 EC votes so can make or break a spread bet.
If SC went Biden then it would almost be a cert that GA and FL went blue too.
That would be Biden all down the east coast, all down the west with a tiny bit of Real America in between.
Just put a couple of quid on Biden in SC.
What the hell, probably just lost my money, but if it did happen my joy would be added to by a 6/1 win.
I would need to see a couple more SC polls heading in the same direction before I moved it to the TCTC column on the Stodge Mastermap. Quinnipiac might be an outlier.
If you're going to go big on Biden you're going to hope he wins the likes of Texas, Florida and Georgia - I'm to be convinced. It's 83 EC votes so can make or break a spread bet.
I'm on TX. Since July.
Fingers crossed this is the shellacking to end all shellackings.
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
I think it’s wise to ignore Rasmussen whether they have one’s charge well ahead, tied or behind. It strikes me as a bit of a comedy pollster, doing the proverbial with the lady of the night’s knickers.
I'm just catching up on things at the moment as I've had a rather busy day. Given what I've heard second-hand about events from the other Mr Rook, here's where I think we are.
I'm more convinced than ever that the pandemic hit the UK so hard largely because of mass seeding of the disease into the country by people returning from foreign holidays. It's the best explanation for why, as Whitty reportedly confirmed today, the spread of Covid through the UK in March/April was far more uniform than in other comparable states.
During the initial peak, all regions of the country suffered significantly, although London was of course hit harder than everywhere else, including other major urban centres. That's probably largely attributable to Hooray Henries and Henriettas from the weathier parts of the Home Counties coming back from Plague-infested Alpine ski resorts and spreading it through our squalid, cattle truck commuter transit system on the way into their City offices.
Then, as we moved past the peak, there was a window for further disease importation after people stopped taking holidays en masse, but before the Government temporarily imposed quarantine for all incoming travellers from abroad. IIRC much of the remaining air passenger traffic in and out of the UK during that period was in the form of family reunion flights to and from the Indian subcontinent. That would certainly help to explain why so many of the early hotspot locations where the virus began to flare up again were locations with large South Asian diaspora communities.
Now that we're moving into Autumn and, for whatever reason (crap weather? schools going back?) the spread of the disease has become more general, we're getting a pattern more like that seen in some continental countries during both this wave and the first, with substantial numbers of cases in some areas and modest, minor or no increases in others, with the dominant theme appearing to be a more general propagation of the virus through areas of densely-packed, lower-quality housing. Hence the fact that much of South Wales presently finds itself being immolated in a Covid-19 dumpster fire, whilst the disease is still vanishingly rare in, for example, East Devon. The best those of us in lower-risk areas can hope for is that we continue to track what's happening in France and Spain, that the rate of increase in the number of cases therefore slows down, and it remains stubbornly persistent only in certain areas (so that, from a purely selfish point of view, we're allowed to get on with life without being throttled by ever-escalating restrictions.)
What I'm afraid will actually happen is that students will be to the Autumn what holidaymakers were to the Spring, seed new outbreaks here, there and everywhere, and give the Government the pretext to do what I'm still convinced they want to do and order a complete national lockdown. But we shall see.
I think it’s wise to ignore Rasmussen whether they have one’s charge well ahead, tied or behind. It strikes me as a bit of a comedy pollster, doing the proverbial with the lady of the night’s knickers.
I think it’s wise to ignore Rasmussen whether they have one’s charge well ahead, tied or behind. It strikes me as a bit of a comedy pollster, doing the proverbial with the lady of the night’s knickers.
HYUFD assures us that they are one of the best.
I suspect they might fall off his A+ list after today’s survey.
If SC went Biden then it would almost be a cert that GA and FL went blue too.
That would be Biden all down the east coast, all down the west with a tiny bit of Real America in between.
Just put a couple of quid on Biden in SC.
What the hell, probably just lost my money, but if it did happen my joy would be added to by a 6/1 win.
I would need to see a couple more SC polls heading in the same direction before I moved it to the TCTC column on the Stodge Mastermap. Quinnipiac might be an outlier.
If you're going to go big on Biden you're going to hope he wins the likes of Texas, Florida and Georgia - I'm to be convinced. It's 83 EC votes so can make or break a spread bet.
It was SC that got Joe the Dem nomination. Between the African American vote, the military vote and the retired vote, maybe its Bidens year...
I wonder if we're going to find that the virus transmits more easily in refrigerated conditions. Otherwise wouldn't we be getting more outbreaks in all close confines industry?
I will stress once again, just because you don't die from Covid-19 doesn't mean it doesn't fuck up your life.
And that's the bit people are forgetting - I don't know anyone who has had Covid-19 who has fully recovered from it.
I am sorry but that is garbage -- Many people who get it don't even get a mild illness
As I'm sure eek does not expect everyone they encounter to provide a recent test result, it follows that they are talking about people who did display symptoms. And yes, it is very much the case that many people who showed symptoms are experiencing long-term after effects. I too know people who so affected. It is not garbage.
Accepted that there are lingering effects, but we cannot yet know about long-term effects can we?
Yes, but given that the investigations of the lingering effects seem to show in many case some quite serious damage to the lungs, heart and other organs, I would not be confident that no-one will have long-term effects.
If SC went Biden then it would almost be a cert that GA and FL went blue too.
That would be Biden all down the east coast, all down the west with a tiny bit of Real America in between.
Just put a couple of quid on Biden in SC.
What the hell, probably just lost my money, but if it did happen my joy would be added to by a 6/1 win.
I would need to see a couple more SC polls heading in the same direction before I moved it to the TCTC column on the Stodge Mastermap. Quinnipiac might be an outlier.
If you're going to go big on Biden you're going to hope he wins the likes of Texas, Florida and Georgia - I'm to be convinced. It's 83 EC votes so can make or break a spread bet.
It was SC that got Joe the Dem nomination. Between the African American vote, the military vote and the retired vote, maybe its Bidens year...
Let's not forget that if the polls are showing even a close loss in SC, that work's in Biden's favour, as it's one more state that the GOP has to expend resources in to defend that they shouldn't expect to have to.
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
This sums up my position completely. I have long despised the man, but grew to despise the entire federal GOP slate when they failed to rein in Trump's attacks on the institutions of democracy. Regardless of policies, Trump is a danger to democracy, and the Congressional GOP are not fit for purpose as a check and balance.
I wonder if we're going to find that the virus transmits more easily in refrigerated conditions. Otherwise wouldn't we be getting more outbreaks in all close confines industry?
I wonder if we're going to find that the virus transmits more easily in refrigerated conditions. Otherwise wouldn't we be getting more outbreaks in all close confines industry?
There was some finding last week about very long survival on a frozen surface, as I recall?
I wonder if we're going to find that the virus transmits more easily in refrigerated conditions. Otherwise wouldn't we be getting more outbreaks in all close confines industry?
There was some finding last week about very long survival on a frozen surface, as I recall?
Perhaps we should rename the virus Ernest, in honour of the legendary Mr Shackleton?
I will stress once again, just because you don't die from Covid-19 doesn't mean it doesn't fuck up your life.
And that's the bit people are forgetting - I don't know anyone who has had Covid-19 who has fully recovered from it.
I am sorry but that is garbage -- Many people who get it don't even get a mild illness
As I'm sure eek does not expect everyone they encounter to provide a recent test result, it follows that they are talking about people who did display symptoms. And yes, it is very much the case that many people who showed symptoms are experiencing long-term after effects. I too know people who so affected. It is not garbage.
Accepted that there are lingering effects, but we cannot yet know about long-term effects can we?
Yes, but given that the investigations of the lingering effects seem to show in many case some quite serious damage to the lungs, heart and other organs, I would not be confident that no-one will have long-term effects.
There is quite good evidence for long term damage in SARS.
I wonder if we're going to find that the virus transmits more easily in refrigerated conditions. Otherwise wouldn't we be getting more outbreaks in all close confines industry?
There was some finding last week about very long survival on a frozen surface, as I recall?
I'm no scientist, but the fomite theory has always seemed overblown to me. Would make much more sense if eg aerosolised infection is made easier at lower temps...
Edit to add: or refrigerated environments have air con?
CNN: In conversations with several people who work for Trump, advise him or support him, all acknowledged Trump was too aggressive, touted few of his accomplishments and likely turned off the moderate voters he desperately needs to improve his standing.
In private conversations, Trump's performance was described as obnoxious, unprepared and lacking a cogent line of attack on Biden, like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"A disaster," one adviser called it.
The performance left aides struggling to consider ways to improve in the final stretch of the campaign as time runs short.
I wonder if we're going to find that the virus transmits more easily in refrigerated conditions. Otherwise wouldn't we be getting more outbreaks in all close confines industry?
There was some finding last week about very long survival on a frozen surface, as I recall?
Maybe the answer to herd immunity is to pay every 18-24-year-old to go ice skating.
I will stress once again, just because you don't die from Covid-19 doesn't mean it doesn't fuck up your life.
And that's the bit people are forgetting - I don't know anyone who has had Covid-19 who has fully recovered from it.
I am sorry but that is garbage -- Many people who get it don't even get a mild illness
As I'm sure eek does not expect everyone they encounter to provide a recent test result, it follows that they are talking about people who did display symptoms. And yes, it is very much the case that many people who showed symptoms are experiencing long-term after effects. I too know people who so affected. It is not garbage.
Accepted that there are lingering effects, but we cannot yet know about long-term effects can we?
Yes, but given that the investigations of the lingering effects seem to show in many case some quite serious damage to the lungs, heart and other organs, I would not be confident that no-one will have long-term effects.
Yes, Mrs PtP is happily recovered now but it seems there is some long-term damage to the lungs. It's not grave and things should improve over time but we would definitely class it as a long-term effect. We have heard of others more severely affected, and some not affected at all, so it seems variable.
There is still too little known about the virus but enough to be fairly sure that the lingering effects in the population as a whole are not negligible.
'...Sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler.'
It's true, and many of us of a different political persuasion would drink to that. What you do not need is a racist, a mysogenist, and a liar who actively encourages thugs and thuggery.
You'd vote for this? Really?
Trump can't afford to lose.
If he can't retain power Donald, Don Jnr, Eric and Ivanka will all more likely than not see the inside of a New York State Courtroom.
That is one hell of an incentive to retain the Presidency by any means. I forecast disruption prior ( he was dog whistling the Proud Boys militia yesterday) to the election. I am also convinced the election will end in the SCOTUS and they will give the win to Trump, state by state until he crosses the line.
I wonder if we're going to find that the virus transmits more easily in refrigerated conditions. Otherwise wouldn't we be getting more outbreaks in all close confines industry?
There was some finding last week about very long survival on a frozen surface, as I recall?
I'm no scientist, but the fomite theory has always seemed overblown to me. Would make much more sense if eg aerosolised infection is made easier at lower temps...
Edit to add: or refrigerated environments have air con?
Or, as the science of other coronaviruses suggests, viable virus survives well and long in cold dry environments, and that, combined with some activity that is aerosol-/droplet-generating, such as sawing big chunks of meat up, creates an environment where fomites are turned into infectious droplets.
Has he praised Boris somewhere? When I read that tweet earlier I thought he was gently mocking Boris's faux-churchillian pretensions by saying 'wartime leader'.
Has he praised Boris somewhere? When I read that tweet earlier I thought he was gently mocking Boris's faux-churchillian pretensions by saying 'wartime leader'.
Should've said "... is back, and he's turning up the volume."
I'm just catching up on things at the moment as I've had a rather busy day. Given what I've heard second-hand about events from the other Mr Rook, here's where I think we are.
I'm more convinced than ever that the pandemic hit the UK so hard largely because of mass seeding of the disease into the country by people returning from foreign holidays. It's the best explanation for why, as Whitty reportedly confirmed today, the spread of Covid through the UK in March/April was far more uniform than in other comparable states.
During the initial peak, all regions of the country suffered significantly, although London was of course hit harder than everywhere else, including other major urban centres. That's probably largely attributable to Hooray Henries and Henriettas from the weathier parts of the Home Counties coming back from Plague-infested Alpine ski resorts and spreading it through our squalid, cattle truck commuter transit system on the way into their City offices.
Then, as we moved past the peak, there was a window for further disease importation after people stopped taking holidays en masse, but before the Government temporarily imposed quarantine for all incoming travellers from abroad. IIRC much of the remaining air passenger traffic in and out of the UK during that period was in the form of family reunion flights to and from the Indian subcontinent. That would certainly help to explain why so many of the early hotspot locations where the virus began to flare up again were locations with large South Asian diaspora communities.
Now that we're moving into Autumn and, for whatever reason (crap weather? schools going back?) the spread of the disease has become more general, we're getting a pattern more like that seen in some continental countries during both this wave and the first, with substantial numbers of cases in some areas and modest, minor or no increases in others, with the dominant theme appearing to be a more general propagation of the virus through areas of densely-packed, lower-quality housing. Hence the fact that much of South Wales presently finds itself being immolated in a Covid-19 dumpster fire, whilst the disease is still vanishingly rare in, for example, East Devon. The best those of us in lower-risk areas can hope for is that we continue to track what's happening in France and Spain, that the rate of increase in the number of cases therefore slows down, and it remains stubbornly persistent only in certain areas (so that, from a purely selfish point of view, we're allowed to get on with life without being throttled by ever-escalating restrictions.)
What I'm afraid will actually happen is that students will be to the Autumn what holidaymakers were to the Spring, seed new outbreaks here, there and everywhere, and give the Government the pretext to do what I'm still convinced they want to do and order a complete national lockdown. But we shall see.
The pattern of further seeding in August also had an element of holiday in it - except August foreign holidays are a more egalitarian affair. So, a second bump into northern towns, but also a low incidence appeared from nowhere in the shires. Isolation in northern less office based cities was less good and the weather a bit colder, so spread took hold more in the north. Places with a domestic holiday industry (and seasonal work) were less affected.
'...Sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler.'
It's true, and many of us of a different political persuasion would drink to that. What you do not need is a racist, a mysogenist, and a liar who actively encourages thugs and thuggery.
You'd vote for this? Really?
Trump can't afford to lose.
If he can't retain power Donald, Don Jnr, Eric and Ivanka will all more likely than not see the inside of a New York State Courtroom.
That is one hell of an incentive to retain the Presidency by any means. I forecast disruption prior ( he was dog whistling the Proud Boys militia yesterday) to the election. I am also convinced the election will end in the SCOTUS and they will give the win to Trump, state by state until he crosses the line.
The worst game I ever owned back in the day was Banana Republic - you had to run the said Republic and get out by helicopter, if you could, once your 60 day reign came to an end.
I don't think Trump will be obstructive if he loses - I honestly think he'll be on a private jet somewhere, as will his family.
Well Boris will have no influence on if his dad gets fined or not. Boris has enough actual things to criticise him about without seeking to criticise him by association with his dad.
'...Sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler.'
It's true, and many of us of a different political persuasion would drink to that. What you do not need is a racist, a mysogenist, and a liar who actively encourages thugs and thuggery.
You'd vote for this? Really?
Trump can't afford to lose.
If he can't retain power Donald, Don Jnr, Eric and Ivanka will all more likely than not see the inside of a New York State Courtroom.
That is one hell of an incentive to retain the Presidency by any means. I forecast disruption prior ( he was dog whistling the Proud Boys militia yesterday) to the election. I am also convinced the election will end in the SCOTUS and they will give the win to Trump, state by state until he crosses the line.
The worst game I ever owned back in the day was Banana Republic - you had to run the said Republic and get out by helicopter, if you could, once your 60 day reign came to an end.
I don't think Trump will be obstructive if he loses - I honestly think he'll be on a private jet somewhere, as will his family.
I don't think so. He is too American. He will just spend a fortune on lawyers.
CNN: In conversations with several people who work for Trump, advise him or support him, all acknowledged Trump was too aggressive, touted few of his accomplishments and likely turned off the moderate voters he desperately needs to improve his standing.
In private conversations, Trump's performance was described as obnoxious, unprepared and lacking a cogent line of attack on Biden, like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"A disaster," one adviser called it.
The performance left aides struggling to consider ways to improve in the final stretch of the campaign as time runs short.
At the time of the Clinton debates in 2016, everyone was saying how Clinton had won them and Trump looked obnoxious and then....
'...Sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler.'
It's true, and many of us of a different political persuasion would drink to that. What you do not need is a racist, a mysogenist, and a liar who actively encourages thugs and thuggery.
You'd vote for this? Really?
Trump can't afford to lose.
If he can't retain power Donald, Don Jnr, Eric and Ivanka will all more likely than not see the inside of a New York State Courtroom.
That is one hell of an incentive to retain the Presidency by any means. I forecast disruption prior ( he was dog whistling the Proud Boys militia yesterday) to the election. I am also convinced the election will end in the SCOTUS and they will give the win to Trump, state by state until he crosses the line.
The worst game I ever owned back in the day was Banana Republic - you had to run the said Republic and get out by helicopter, if you could, once your 60 day reign came to an end.
I don't think Trump will be obstructive if he loses - I honestly think he'll be on a private jet somewhere, as will his family.
They can live in the same block of flats that is home to Edward Snowden.
Well Boris will have no influence on if his dad gets fined or not. Boris has enough actual things to criticise him about without seeking to criticise him by association with his dad.
He wont need to use his influence. The system wont treat a member of the establishment such as Stanley Johnson the same way it would an ordinary person without needing any intervention. One rule from the elite, another for most of us, and the harshest treatment reserved for the weakest in society.
CNN: In conversations with several people who work for Trump, advise him or support him, all acknowledged Trump was too aggressive, touted few of his accomplishments and likely turned off the moderate voters he desperately needs to improve his standing.
In private conversations, Trump's performance was described as obnoxious, unprepared and lacking a cogent line of attack on Biden, like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"A disaster," one adviser called it.
The performance left aides struggling to consider ways to improve in the final stretch of the campaign as time runs short.
At the time of the Clinton debates in 2016, everyone was saying how Clinton had won them and Trump looked obnoxious and then....
Well Boris will have no influence on if his dad gets fined or not. Boris has enough actual things to criticise him about without seeking to criticise him by association with his dad.
He wont need to use his influence. The system wont treat a member of the establishment such as Stanley Johnson the same way it would an ordinary person without needing any intervention. One rule from the elite, another for most of us, and the harshest treatment reserved for the weakest in society.
That's as maybe, but if so then it's still nothing to do with Boris. I'll stick to criticising him and those who work for him rather than shopping around his family members to get outraged at.
Has he praised Boris somewhere? When I read that tweet earlier I thought he was gently mocking Boris's faux-churchillian pretensions by saying 'wartime leader'.
I read it that way too. Although Toenails' is known for his Tory credentials.
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
This sums up my position completely. I have long despised the man, but grew to despise the entire federal GOP slate when they failed to rein in Trump's attacks on the institutions of democracy. Regardless of policies, Trump is a danger to democracy, and the Congressional GOP are not fit for purpose as a check and balance.
Ok, so we have had a lot on here about how Trump and the GOP undermine the electoral system.
But who on here has commented on this and do they think it's acceptable?
CNN: In conversations with several people who work for Trump, advise him or support him, all acknowledged Trump was too aggressive, touted few of his accomplishments and likely turned off the moderate voters he desperately needs to improve his standing.
In private conversations, Trump's performance was described as obnoxious, unprepared and lacking a cogent line of attack on Biden, like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"A disaster," one adviser called it.
The performance left aides struggling to consider ways to improve in the final stretch of the campaign as time runs short.
At the time of the Clinton debates in 2016, everyone was saying how Clinton had won them and Trump looked obnoxious and then....
And Clinton's poll lead went from 1.5% to 4% after the debates.
CNN: In conversations with several people who work for Trump, advise him or support him, all acknowledged Trump was too aggressive, touted few of his accomplishments and likely turned off the moderate voters he desperately needs to improve his standing.
In private conversations, Trump's performance was described as obnoxious, unprepared and lacking a cogent line of attack on Biden, like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"A disaster," one adviser called it.
The performance left aides struggling to consider ways to improve in the final stretch of the campaign as time runs short.
At the time of the Clinton debates in 2016, everyone was saying how Clinton had won them and Trump looked obnoxious and then....
Well Boris will have no influence on if his dad gets fined or not. Boris has enough actual things to criticise him about without seeking to criticise him by association with his dad.
He wont need to use his influence. The system wont treat a member of the establishment such as Stanley Johnson the same way it would an ordinary person without needing any intervention. One rule from the elite, another for most of us, and the harshest treatment reserved for the weakest in society.
That's as maybe, but if so then it's still nothing to do with Boris. I'll stick to criticising him and those who work for him rather than shopping around his family members to get outraged at.
Im certainly not outraged by his dad not wearing a mask, nor do I think the PM is responsible for his dads actions.
However it makes perfectly clear that this govts actions in dealing with covid, have criminalised large numbers of the publics daily actions, without the public being able to keep up with what the rules are. To be honest, the police and the government themselves are not on top of the details of the laws either. It is pointless - just make the law clear and simple to understand, like the rule of six, and leave the complexity, like singing, for guidance.
And another example of the one rule for the elite, another for the rest of us, will lead to less compliance with what is needed to tackle covid.
CNN: In conversations with several people who work for Trump, advise him or support him, all acknowledged Trump was too aggressive, touted few of his accomplishments and likely turned off the moderate voters he desperately needs to improve his standing.
In private conversations, Trump's performance was described as obnoxious, unprepared and lacking a cogent line of attack on Biden, like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"A disaster," one adviser called it.
The performance left aides struggling to consider ways to improve in the final stretch of the campaign as time runs short.
At the time of the Clinton debates in 2016, everyone was saying how Clinton had won them and Trump looked obnoxious and then....
You are Stuart Truth and I claim my £5!
Actually Peter, just to be clear:
1. The 2016 election was my biggest ever political betting winner, mainly because I put some nice 18/1 bets in places like Michigan (but I have lost a few as well);
2. I have not put anything on this yet as I have absolutely no idea which way it could turn
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
This sums up my position completely. I have long despised the man, but grew to despise the entire federal GOP slate when they failed to rein in Trump's attacks on the institutions of democracy. Regardless of policies, Trump is a danger to democracy, and the Congressional GOP are not fit for purpose as a check and balance.
Ok, so we have had a lot on here about how Trump and the GOP undermine the electoral system.
But who on here has commented on this and do they think it's acceptable?
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
This sums up my position completely. I have long despised the man, but grew to despise the entire federal GOP slate when they failed to rein in Trump's attacks on the institutions of democracy. Regardless of policies, Trump is a danger to democracy, and the Congressional GOP are not fit for purpose as a check and balance.
Ok, so we have had a lot on here about how Trump and the GOP undermine the electoral system.
But who on here has commented on this and do they think it's acceptable?
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
Early on election night in 2016 you were predicting Hilary had won and had bet according ! But I remember you spotting that Michigan was looking poor for Clinton which was when I was able to flip my position to Trump before the market woke up - have always been grateful to you for that insight.
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
This sums up my position completely. I have long despised the man, but grew to despise the entire federal GOP slate when they failed to rein in Trump's attacks on the institutions of democracy. Regardless of policies, Trump is a danger to democracy, and the Congressional GOP are not fit for purpose as a check and balance.
Ok, so we have had a lot on here about how Trump and the GOP undermine the electoral system.
But who on here has commented on this and do they think it's acceptable?
Well Boris will have no influence on if his dad gets fined or not. Boris has enough actual things to criticise him about without seeking to criticise him by association with his dad.
He wont need to use his influence. The system wont treat a member of the establishment such as Stanley Johnson the same way it would an ordinary person without needing any intervention. One rule from the elite, another for most of us, and the harshest treatment reserved for the weakest in society.
That's as maybe, but if so then it's still nothing to do with Boris. I'll stick to criticising him and those who work for him rather than shopping around his family members to get outraged at.
Nevertheless, politically it might look good to fine him. He can afford it. Pour encourage les autres.
Late to the party on last night's debate. I didn't watch it but saw some of the highlights and have been reading the commentary on it and the comments here. Funnily enough, it seems to have shifted to a view of a Biden win from, at the time of the debate, a more balanced view.
As someone who would vote for Trump if I was a US voter, there was nothing in there which would make me think "wow, I can't vote for him now I know this." If you don't know what he is like after all these years, you have been living in a cave. My reasoning would be much of America is in a mess, much of which is related to its trade policies and, while Trump's personal ways of conducting himself leave much to be desired, sometimes you need in politics, as in war, a barroom brawler. TBH, though, if Biden won, I wouldn't be weeping in the streets or calling the election a fraud. He wins, that is that.
On the debate itself, I think DavidL had it bang on the money. Trump came across as a bully but that is the way of the world and you need to be able to stand up for yourself. In fact, Biden came across as being in the worst of both worlds - he didn't push back so forcefully that you thought he can defend himself against the bullies but he made enough cutting remarks to come across a genial Ronald Reagan style character.
In fact, even though it may not be obvious now and it hasn't been commented on much, I think the debate has undermined one of Biden's key subliminal calling cards i.e. that he can restore grace and dignity to the Presidency after Trump's years. After last night's performance, it is going to be hard for him to claim that.
One final point. He may also regret calling Trump a clown. Yes, I know many on him view him as such but a lot of older Americans, particularly military, tend to have the view that "you salute the rank, not the man" (clip here everyone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRZRRlA4sw). Now, I don't think diehards will care nor the young but, for a sliver of undecideds, it may be an issue.
The interesting thing is that, just as the polling overall seems to have got better for Trump in the past few days, the Republicans seem to be having jittery nerves over the level of mail-in voting and what that means for the election. There is a question here of how much is being pulled forward and, also, whether it leads to more votes being discounted.
I should be a Trump supporter.
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
This sums up my position completely. I have long despised the man, but grew to despise the entire federal GOP slate when they failed to rein in Trump's attacks on the institutions of democracy. Regardless of policies, Trump is a danger to democracy, and the Congressional GOP are not fit for purpose as a check and balance.
Ok, so we have had a lot on here about how Trump and the GOP undermine the electoral system.
But who on here has commented on this and do they think it's acceptable?
I'm slightly more worried by the facelift than the contact lenses. If the poor man gets any more pulled he will quite literally be talking out of his backside.
Comments
That would be Biden all down the east coast, all down the west with a tiny bit of Real America in between.
still in business.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
What the hell, probably just lost my money, but if it did happen my joy would be added to by a 6/1 win.
I wonder if we will see any swing in any direction after last night's debate - I suspect not.
Rasmussen has Biden up 51-43 - the national swing would be 3% but State polls "suggest" in many states a larger swing to Biden offset (perhaps) by a small recovery in Trump fortunes in Blue strongholds.
Trump polling 43-45% looks very reasonable at present. Will he win the election with that share? Conceivably, yes, actually, no.
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1311384486479884289
If you're going to go big on Biden you're going to hope he wins the likes of Texas, Florida and Georgia - I'm to be convinced. It's 83 EC votes so can make or break a spread bet.
Fingers crossed this is the shellacking to end all shellackings.
https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1311367214184886272?s=20
I believe the US has the right to enforce its borders. I think the government should reward those who play by the rules. I think that the pharmaceutical companies have trampled over successive governments. My business benefits from the excellent regulatory framework in Republican Arizona. I believe in a small government.
And I was also the first on here, I think, to call a Trump victory on election night in 2016.
(My post to Facebook on the day of the election last year was sharing an article on how it would be OK if Trump won.)
But over the past two years, I've moved to deeply despise President Trump.
Ultimately, only one thing matters in a democracy - a willingness to accept the verdict of the voters.
One of my favourite sayings is "better a good system than a great person". The US has a good system, with checks and balances enshrined in the separation of powers.
Democratic norms have been undermined by President Trump. And that weakens the American system.
I think of it like the marshmallow test. It's better not to get the policies that you think are right, but maintain the system, than to get the policies you want but undermine the system.
Dangerously stupid
I think it’s wise to ignore Rasmussen whether they have one’s charge well ahead, tied or behind. It strikes me as a bit of a comedy pollster, doing the proverbial with the lady of the night’s knickers.
I'm more convinced than ever that the pandemic hit the UK so hard largely because of mass seeding of the disease into the country by people returning from foreign holidays. It's the best explanation for why, as Whitty reportedly confirmed today, the spread of Covid through the UK in March/April was far more uniform than in other comparable states.
During the initial peak, all regions of the country suffered significantly, although London was of course hit harder than everywhere else, including other major urban centres. That's probably largely attributable to Hooray Henries and Henriettas from the weathier parts of the Home Counties coming back from Plague-infested Alpine ski resorts and spreading it through our squalid, cattle truck commuter transit system on the way into their City offices.
Then, as we moved past the peak, there was a window for further disease importation after people stopped taking holidays en masse, but before the Government temporarily imposed quarantine for all incoming travellers from abroad. IIRC much of the remaining air passenger traffic in and out of the UK during that period was in the form of family reunion flights to and from the Indian subcontinent. That would certainly help to explain why so many of the early hotspot locations where the virus began to flare up again were locations with large South Asian diaspora communities.
Now that we're moving into Autumn and, for whatever reason (crap weather? schools going back?) the spread of the disease has become more general, we're getting a pattern more like that seen in some continental countries during both this wave and the first, with substantial numbers of cases in some areas and modest, minor or no increases in others, with the dominant theme appearing to be a more general propagation of the virus through areas of densely-packed, lower-quality housing. Hence the fact that much of South Wales presently finds itself being immolated in a Covid-19 dumpster fire, whilst the disease is still vanishingly rare in, for example, East Devon. The best those of us in lower-risk areas can hope for is that we continue to track what's happening in France and Spain, that the rate of increase in the number of cases therefore slows down, and it remains stubbornly persistent only in certain areas (so that, from a purely selfish point of view, we're allowed to get on with life without being throttled by ever-escalating restrictions.)
What I'm afraid will actually happen is that students will be to the Autumn what holidaymakers were to the Spring, seed new outbreaks here, there and everywhere, and give the Government the pretext to do what I'm still convinced they want to do and order a complete national lockdown. But we shall see.
BBC News - Covid: 170 test positive at Cornwall meat plant
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-54361824
Unless it was France Nick had in mind.
It would also help with messaging.
‘The situation is Ernest...’
Edit to add: or refrigerated environments have air con?
In private conversations, Trump's performance was described as obnoxious, unprepared and lacking a cogent line of attack on Biden, like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"A disaster," one adviser called it.
The performance left aides struggling to consider ways to improve in the final stretch of the campaign as time runs short.
There is still too little known about the virus but enough to be fairly sure that the lingering effects in the population as a whole are not negligible.
If he can't retain power Donald, Don Jnr, Eric and Ivanka will all more likely than not see the inside of a New York State Courtroom.
That is one hell of an incentive to retain the Presidency by any means. I forecast disruption prior ( he was dog whistling the Proud Boys militia yesterday) to the election. I am also convinced the election will end in the SCOTUS and they will give the win to Trump, state by state until he crosses the line.
There are many who speak in subdued tones of those days.
I don't think Trump will be obstructive if he loses - I honestly think he'll be on a private jet somewhere, as will his family.
In this instance nothing to see.
Remain under Covid restrictions versus have to eat pineapple pizza once a week? Either option sounds pretty shit to me.
But who on here has commented on this and do they think it's acceptable?
https://nypost.com/2020/09/27/project-veritas-uncovers-ballot-harvesting-fraud-in-minnesota/
However it makes perfectly clear that this govts actions in dealing with covid, have criminalised large numbers of the publics daily actions, without the public being able to keep up with what the rules are. To be honest, the police and the government themselves are not on top of the details of the laws either. It is pointless - just make the law clear and simple to understand, like the rule of six, and leave the complexity, like singing, for guidance.
And another example of the one rule for the elite, another for the rest of us, will lead to less compliance with what is needed to tackle covid.
1. The 2016 election was my biggest ever political betting winner, mainly because I put some nice 18/1 bets in places like Michigan (but I have lost a few as well);
2. I have not put anything on this yet as I have absolutely no idea which way it could turn
If its a good policy lets have the government justify it with analysis and detail, not because an opinion poll likes it.
He can afford it.
Pour encourage les autres.
But - the guy is on tape admitting to this and harvesting the ballots. So, answer the question - do you think this is right or not?